The Ultimate Winds of Winter Resource

285 posts in this topic

Put my in the camp that thinks ASOIAF will not be competed during GRRM's lifetime.

Let's look at the facts.

1) GRRM has written two ASOIAF main sequence novels in the last 17 years. Two. A Storm of Swords was published in 2000.

2) Five years from Storm to Feast (2000-2005). Six years from Feast to Dance (2005-2011). And now 7+ from Dance to Winds.

3) All this slowing down despite the facts that each book should have had significant content written for it during the attempt at the previous work. A lot of the Dany/Jon/Tyrion stuff from Dance should have been done since the decision to split the books came later. Or at least a significant portion of it. And after Dance was cut short, the Battle of Mereen, Battle of Winterfell, Jon's resolution at the Wall stuff should have already been done. Plus we had a slew of other chapters done early (Barristan, Aeron, Theon, Arrianne, Mercy, Alayne, etc).

We were assured that the fact that Dance got cut short meant that a lot of Winds was already done & a speedy next novel would come now that the 5 year gap/Mereneese knot problems were solved. Well, 7 years later...

4) During the intervening time, GRRM has delved into numerous side novels, prequels, & other projects. Whilst Winds still isn't written.

5) Looking at it a certain way, he hasn't really wrote a compete ASOIAF novel in the last 17 years. As the whole Feast/Dance fiasco shows. Since he couldn't fit all of the plot lines into one book, he split off the plots of Dany, Jon, & Tyrion into Dance, whilst events in KL & vicinity were in Feast. Thus, he could (supposedly) tell two complete stories rather than one incomplete one followed by the resolutions in the second one.

Except he didn't finish the plotlines in Dance. Jon Snow is in a cliffhanger. Dany's situaion in Mereen is far from resolved. Nor is Winterfell. Heck, even some stuff from Feast went unresolved. Cersei's trial. Brienne/Cat/Jaimie. The last book where all the storylines were included & resolved was Storm. 17 years ago. 

6) GRRM is 68. At this rate, he'll be at least 75 when Spring comes out. That's if Winds makes it out next year AND there are only two more books. And if the pace doesn't slow more.


I'm not saying this to act entitled. GRRM doesn't owe me a thing (though his publisher is another matter). If he wants to write prequels & other stuff, he can do whatever he wants. However, my reading of the facts suggests that he hasn't really completed a complete ASOIAF novel since 2000 & the two he has completed in the intervening time were incomplete (via Dany/Jon/Tyrion not being in Feast & Dance not having resolutions of any plotlines, which was the whole reason d'etre for splitting the books in the first place). He seems more interested in writing other stuff & other projects (which do get finished). And now the show will finish first.

He's been months away for years.

I think the prudent thing to do is for GRRM to accept the fact that he needs 3 books to do it right. Finish Winds instead of trying to cram so much into it that it feels wrong. However, I think GRRM is so stale on the project that he wants to get it over in 2 books rather than three. Hence, he writes & doesn't like it & has to rewrite, etc.




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I have avoided spoilers from the show, but I imagine that will get even more difficult as time goes on. I mean, I don't have entertainment in my google news fee (never have), yet shit shows up in the fucking business section!

I think I may resign myself to watching a show I enjoyed for about 4 episodes just to see what's going on instead of the piecemeal shit I get in my news feed. I don't agree that 3 books are needed, if he can return to Storm quality of plot movement but you may be right youknownothingjohnsnow, 3 books would deliver more quality, the last thing I want is a tiny epilogue like we received in the WoT.

When Season 8 is finished, and we don't have a book yet, I will break down and watch the show, fast forwarding like crazy though the gratuitous crap. If Winds has been delivered by then I might be able to hold out a little longer.

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I also find it mystifying how GRRM can be "months away" from finishing the book since 2015. It's hard to understand how he can be so utterly wrong - not one time, but several times - when estimating the state of the book.

Did he decide to throw out large parts of the text and rewrite them completely? Was he never as close to the finish as he led fans to believe? Was he being over-optimistic a couple of years ago? Is he being deliberately pessimistic now to keep expectations down? Is he depressed because the series has moved ahead of the books, spoiling all the major plot twists? Is he just disorganised and unable to accurately measure his progress?

We can only speculate, of course. But it's obvious that, for one reason or another, "The Winds of Winter" is in major trouble.

The whole saga around its publication is starting to remind me of the Guns n' Roses album "Chinese Democracy" - an album that was in production so long (1994 to 2008) and postponed so many times that it became a running joke in the music industry. "Hey, 'Chinese Democracy' will be released next year!" "Har, har!" When it finally did come out in 2008, the rumour was that the studio execs had run out of patience and literally forced Axl Rose to release it, or they would pull the plug financially.

Why did it take so long? For one thing, the band underwent several lineup changes at the time until Axl Rose was the only remaining original member. Moreover, it's well-known that Rose is a perfectionist, and as one observer astutely put it: "When you give a perfectionist total creative control and no deadline, he will never get anything finished."

Maybe that is GRRM's problem, too. He can't ever finish "The Winds of Winter" because it is the penultimate book in the series, and the closer he gets to the end of the whole epic, the less able he feels to resolve all the arcs and subplots in a manner that is totally satisfying to him. So he keeps fiddling with it and fiddling with it and fiddling with it...

He is not literally suffering from writer's block, but caught in endless rewrites. That's my best explanation for the repeated "I am months away!" assertions. But again, it's all just speculation, of course.

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[mod] Just to remind people: this thread is for information about TWOW. It is not for complaining about the absence of TWOW. We don't have a thread like that.

The information given on Not A Blog has been relayed and discussed and at this point the only thing going on in this thread is speculation about GRRM's progress and other things about which nobody here knows a damn thing.

To be clear: this is not an invitation to switch the discussion to whether or not this is a good rule or whether I should close the discussion now. It's me closing the discussion now.

If you want to argue about that, contact me privately, preferably via the moderator email on my profile.


Edited by mormont

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