BryndenBFish

The Ultimate Winds of Winter Resource

348 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Let's clear this up.

Fire and Blood I is an ancillary book. Bantam and Voyager know it will sell well, like WoIaF and other stuff with George's name on it, but it won't be setting the bestseller lists on fire. WoIaF has taken 4 years to sell a million copies, which is exceptionally good for a tie-in book, but it's a drop in the ocean compared to the 4-6 million you'd expect Winds of Winter to sell in its first year on sale (which is roughly what ADWD did). For that reason, the publishers have not put F&B I in a rush-release schedule. A holiday 2019 release makes sense because it will sell more then with people buying it for GoT fans among their friends or family. If for whatever reason F&B1 misses this Christmas, even by a few weeks, I think the publishers will be strongly motivated to hold it back for Christmas 2020 instead.

The Winds of Winter, on the other hand, is (like all the books before it back as far as ASoS) is on priority rush-release. From hand-in, it will be out 3 months later. So if George finishes it tomorrow, it will be out in May or June. If he finishes it in August, it will be out in October and so on, regardless of when F&B1 comes out.

So the timeline for the two book is desynchronised. The publishers would probably not be amiss to them coming out together, simultaneously, so they can do some kind of tie-in release, buy one get 20% off the other etc. TWoW could come out first, assuming George finishes it at least 3-4 months before F&I's planned release date. I haven't seen much sign of this, but then it's not impossible either.

As for the content, about 95% of F&B1 was written in the massive explosion of writing GRRM did back in 2012 for World of Ice and Fire. He wrote circa 300,000 words in 2-3 months, only a small amount of which actually went into the world book. The rest had to be massively compressed and summarised by Elio and Linda. Sons of the DragonThe Princess and the Queen and The Rogue Prince are all off-cuts from this material. Fire and Blood I will simply be the full, uncut (but hopefully better-edited) text of this material. My understanding is that some new material has been written to better start and finish the book off (and to fill in various years and periods of history when there wasn't much going on) but nothing too major. F&B I ends, I believe, with Aegon III and the death of the dragons. F&B2 has pretty much nothing written for it, and can't be released until after ASoIaF is completed because it risks spoiling some revelations in the later books.

I sure hope so... that deal with Elio and Linda and Gardner working of the same unedited text, so that one came up with slight variations from the other was sloppy. 

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I would think Christmas 2018 is the best time to release any book related to got....by Christmas 2019 the show will be over.  It will still be a fairly hot item, but not so hot as this year.  If George can't get the next side book out until 2020?!?!?!  I can't even imagine when Winds might come out....2 or 3 years after that?

Yes, a tie in where both books are available would be a great idea, if the author were capable of getting both books out by 2019.  I don't see that happening though.

Edited by Cas Stark

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19 hours ago, Werthead said:

So the timeline for the two book is desynchronised. The publishers would probably not be amiss to them coming out together, simultaneously, so they can do some kind of tie-in release, buy one get 20% off the other etc. TWoW could come out first, assuming George finishes it at least 3-4 months before F&I's planned release date. I haven't seen much sign of this, but then it's not impossible either.

 

1

Many seem to think that GRRM's announcement that F&B 1 is planned for this year means that TWoW is ruled out, but he didn't say anything like this, did he? 

Just trying to keep some hope here...

Edited by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

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14 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Many seem to think that GRRM's announcement that F&B 1 is planned for this year means that TWoW is ruled out, but he didn't say anything like this, did he? 

Just trying to keep some hope here...

No, nothing remotely of the sort. As usual, it's people reading way, way too much into George's extremely casual way of speaking.

Also, I misspoke. Christmas 2018 and if they miss that, 2019. I keep adding one onto the year for some reason.

Edited by Werthead

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6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

No, nothing remotely of the sort. As usual, it's people reading way, way too into George's extremely casual way of speaking.

Also, I misspoke. Christmas 2018 and if they miss that, 2019. I keep adding one onto the year for some reason.

LOL, probably because despite keeping to the party line you know in your heart that Christmas 2018 is extremely unlikely and it's a freudian slip as they say:)  

 

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1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

LOL, probably because despite keeping to the party line you know in your heart that Christmas 2018 is extremely unlikely and it's a freudian slip as they say:)  

No, for F&B1. For TWoW I have no idea.

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4 hours ago, Werthead said:

No, nothing remotely of the sort. As usual, it's people reading way, way too into George's extremely casual way of speaking.

 

We know that he wouldn't say anything even if the writing didn't go well, rhough.

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8 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

We know that he wouldn't say anything even if the writing didn't go well, rhough.

Correct. His current position is that the shitstorm of the ADWD writing process came down to him giving constant updates so now he's not giving anything at all. The fact that when people begged him for an update, he provided a very rough timeline two years ago that proved to be inaccurate and he got shit for it has only reinforced that decision.

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12 hours ago, Werthead said:

No, nothing remotely of the sort. As usual, it's people reading way, way too much into George's extremely casual way of speaking.

Also, I misspoke. Christmas 2018 and if they miss that, 2019. I keep adding one onto the year for some reason.

As grrm said that F&B1 will be released in the end of 2018 or beguining of 2019 and now that it will be released before TWoW I don t see how winds can be released in 2018.

Even if F&B is released slightly earlier it doesn t make sense to expect TWoW this year. Both grrm and his publisher know that a lot of fans won t like that grrm releases a new book instead of writing winds and that F&B would sell much better if it was released shortly after winds...

I don t think it makes sense to hurt the sales of F&B so that it is published a few months before winds...

I might be completly wrong, but I think there will be several months between F&B1 and winds.

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You are completely wrong.

90% of people who will buy either book do not care in which order, or how close together, they are released. 90% of those who do care, and may be pissed off, will still buy both books because that's how people are. People who would refuse to buy Fire and Blood because they're angry it came out before TWOW are a negligible group as far as the publishers are concerned. Certainly not worth rescheduling the release to pander to.

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My prediction... F&B volume 2 will end up also released before TWOW. 

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On 2018. 02. 07. at 11:24 PM, Dimmu Borgir said:

Sorry for interrupting your analysis Werthead, but I just read GRRM's latest blog post (Feb. 7th, 2018) on his Not a blog-blog. He writes that he doesn't

"consider A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE a series either; it's one single story, being published in (we hope) seven volumes."

Is he seriously worried that he may require an additional book, or is he painting a grimmer picture here? It may just be like some people are discussing, that he has a very hard time turning a very cone-shaped expansion of material (and side stories) in his series into a converging form - i.e. tying loose threads together. Especially considering the above post which suggests that he has may have hard time writing the end of TWOW in a satisfactory manner which does this presumably.

Source: https://grrm.livejournal.com/

Well this is not surprising how the trilogy grew over the decades. Add how the time between book releases keps growing, and we can extrapolate that the series needs another 16-18 years to be finished on book 8. (Provided TWOW is releases within a year or so, if not then more)

 

On 2018. 02. 09. at 5:13 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

I hope it is eight books. I love reading them. 

Well, don't expect the series to have an end then. I'm quire sure GRRM is not immortal.

 

On 2018. 02. 11. at 5:27 AM, Ser Wun Wun said:

George just said Fire and Blood volume 1 will come out before Winds:  Link

And if you'll recall, he gave the release window for F&B as late 2018 to early 2019....so that means no Winds in 2018.  

Quite the clusterfuck this situation has become.  

There's nothing of the sort claimed on your link. (Unless it was edited since you made the comment?)

Edit: It looks like he edited out a semicolon, so now the comments doesn't have any implications on what will be released first. :)


He did explicitly say, that he doesn't know which well be out first, and is hoping to get both of them released in 2018:

 

Quote

 

Edited by mzso

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3 hours ago, mzso said:

There's nothing of the sort claimed on your link. (Unless it was edited since you made the comment?)

Edit: It looks like he edited out a semicolon, so now the comments doesn't have any implications on what will be released first. :)

He did explicitly say, that he doesn't know which well be out first, and is hoping to get both of them released in 2018:
 

Eh?  Even without the semicolon his comment still clearly states Volume 1 of FB will be out before Winds.  He was asked if FB would come out before or after Winds, and he responded "Vol 1 before, vol 2 after".  How does that not definitively settle the issue of which is coming out first? 

As to Winds in 2018...unless you are expecting FB1's release window to get moved up sooner than that late 2018 window he gave in July, or for there to be a near simultaneous release of Winds and FB1 (within 1-2 months), then 2018 is out. 

The former is definitely not happening, and as to the latter...that's about as 'pie in the sky' as it gets, but if such hope gets you through the long night, good luck to you. 

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It isn't unlikely that this could take 8 books. He was planning on writing 7 back when he was forced to split AFFC & ADWD into two books, and he basically said in an interview way back that TWOW is almost twice the size of ADWD & AFFC. Of course, he hadn't started editing at the time (probably not anyway) and he may remove some chapters for the next book. I really believe he has been writing the final POV's, which he is probably writing slower than the others, and editing, whicy could take an enormous amount of time especially since he often rewrites entire chapters. I also agree that he knows the kind of snowstorm he will get if F&B I is released too long before TWOW is ready.

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Even if TWOW takes another 2 years until it's completed, having Fire & Blood come out late 2018/early 2019 would be a nice way to pass the time. I wouldn't be very bothered by the wait for Winds if that is the case.

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Okay, just so I am clear.  GRRM has said that F/B 1, which was mostly written according to him in July, will be out late 2018 or early 2019, he says that F/B2, which has not been written yet, will come after Winds is published.  

This seems to indicate that the best case scenario for Winds of Winter is late 2019.  

I don't believe he will hit that window, but that seems to be the optimistic timeframe based on the most recent comments.

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6 hours ago, Sun Worshipper said:

Even if TWOW takes another 2 years until it's completed, having Fire & Blood come out late 2018/early 2019 would be a nice way to pass the time. I wouldn't be very bothered by the wait for Winds if that is the case.

A Dunk and Egg or three would be even better. 

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Quote

 

It isn't unlikely that this could take 8 books. He was planning on writing 7 back when he was forced to split AFFC & ADWD into two books, and he basically said in an interview way back that TWOW is almost twice the size of ADWD & AFFC.

 

Er, no he didn't, especially since AFFC and ADWD are dramatically different-sized books: AFFC is about 300,000 words exactly on the money and ADWD is about 420,000 words, or almost 50% longer than AFFC.

GRRM's been saying for years that he expects TWoW to be around the same length as ADWD and ASoS, and it can't be much longer because his publishers will have difficulty binding it in one volume. I don't think that limitation is quite as strict as he suggests (he could probably go 450,000 words now and get away with it) but it's still what he's aiming for.

TWoW being twice the size of ADWD would make in unpublishable in one volume.

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4 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

A Dunk and Egg or three would be even better. 

Wouldn't say no to that either.

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I think it's fair to say that the author gave more than a 'rough' update on the series ending.  He repeatedly and unequivocally said that the show would not outpace the books, which means, for several years he believed and intended to have both Winds and Spring out within the timeframe of GOT's airing.  Let's not totally sugarcoat it as if he never gave anything but vague answers on timing.  

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