Attempted Coup in Turkey

[Relic]

10 hours ago, Sophelia said:

Some people in Istanbul are reporting there have been no bombs there and all the explosions were sonic booms from the jets (by mistake or on purpose) ... hope you hear from your friend again soon Relic.

Thank you. She is ok, they finally got some sleep around 6am. The sonic boom thing seems to be the accepted explanation for the "explosions" they were hearing. Sounds like a bit of a "shock and awe" tactic to wake up the population and get them out in the streets last night. 

Needless to say her Turkish friends are ery apprehensive about all the current regime supporters out on the streets, and a worried about reprisal for those who didn't take to the streets last night. She will be leaving Turkey ASAP. 

[rhoynestar]

5 hours ago, Red Hermit said:

This coup seemed doomed to fail but right wingers are bashing Obama for not supporting it.  Somehow I don't think that would have been a good look.

Would have been a terrible move, supporting a military coup trying to supplant a democratically elected leader. Erdogan is hardly an angel but the US would have had no justification for supporting an even worse regime, and would be unilaterally inserting itself into power struggles in an already unstable region.

[Arkash]

1 hour ago, Relic said:

Needless to say her Turkish friends are ery apprehensive about all the current regime supporters out on the streets, and a worried about reprisal for those who didn't take to the streets last night. She will be leaving Turkey ASAP. 

Yeah, that is one of my main concerns as well... repercussions against those who voiced support to the "losing side" or did nothing at all...

Not a good time to be living in Istambul or Ankara. Or the whole Turkey for all that matters.

[Veltigar]

10 hours ago, Lord Pumpkin said:

I'm calling doublethink, if you simultaneously  believe both in democracy and in military coups to overthrow democracy.

It's not doublethink you know, just a recognition that life is complicated. In this particular situation, it's really hard to draw clear lines of good and evil. Historically speaking, the Turkish army has always been the primary defender of the seperation of mosque and state, as well as other Western values. All of which are under ever increasing pressure now that the AKP is in power (e.g. the attack on Radiohead fans during the Ramaddan). 

And the Gülenists, as a movement, seem to be far more tolerant than Erdogan and his followers. The Gülen movement for instance is often praised for its support of multi-party democracy and interfaith dialogue. As Erdogan's actions against the succes of the HDP at the latest elections showed, he's only interested in concentrating power in his own hands. 

Erdogan might be democratically elected, but he's been steadfastidly rolling back democracy for the past few years (e.g. look at the amount of journalists imprisoned by his regime). And that is on top of a lot of other shitty decisions like blowing up the peace process with the PKK, dicking around in Syria without a clear strategy, turning a blind eye to Daesh, using the refugee flows as a weapon, his unsuccesful dickmeasuring contest with Putin and Assad and so forth.

Don't get me wrong, if I were in the Turkish army, I would have gotten the hell out of Dodge as soon as the proposal for a coup reached my ears. Coups are not the way to go, especially if the opposition isn't behind you. That being said, once it was underway, I think it would probably have been best for it to succeed.

After this failed attempt, expect a surge in Erdogan's popularity and a large purge. Not just of the army, he'll probably go after the opposition as well, now that he has a convenient excuse. I could be wrong of course, maybe this coup will act as a wake-up call and force Erdogan to show some contrition, we certainly have to hope for that, but I think it's best to expect the worst now and prepare for it. 

EDIT1: Of course, it stands without saying that the above is written from the PoV of a supporter of Western values. If you don't believe that Western values in the long term yield a far greater amount of happines and wellbeing, than your perspective will be a lot different and more closely aligned with Erdogan's views (and of course, wrong, at least imo). 

EDIT2: look we already have some "nice" outlooks according to the Guardian:

Quote

• At least 194 people died in the coup, including 41 police officers, two soldiers, 47 civilians and 104 people described as “coup plotters.”
• Erdoğan, who returned to Istanbul in the early hours of the morning from his holiday in the resort of Marmaris, said the attempted coup was “treason” undertaken by “a minority within our armed forces”.
• Prime minister Binali Yildirim said on Saturday that legal changes would be considered to reintroduce the death penalty to deal with coup-plotters. He called the plot “a black stain” on Turkish democracy.
• There have been mass surrenders in Istanbul, with around 50 soldiers on Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul abandoning their tanks with their hands raised.

 

[Relic]

8 hours ago, Veltigar said:

It's not doublethink you know, just a recognition that life is complicated. In this particular situation, it's really hard to draw clear lines of good and evil. Historically speaking, the Turkish army has always been the primary defender of the seperation of mosque and state, as well as other Western values. All of which are under ever increasing pressure now that the AKP is in power (e.g. the attack on Radiohead fans during the Ramaddan). 

And the Gülenists, as a movement, seem to be far more tolerant than Erdogan and his followers. The Gülen movement for instance is often praised for its support of multi-party democracy and interfaith dialogue. As Erdogan's actions against the succes of the HDP at the latest elections showed, he's only interested in concentrating power in his own hands. 

Erdogan might be democratically elected, but he's been steadfastidly rolling back democracy for the past few years (e.g. look at the amount of journalists imprisoned by his regime). And that is on top of a lot of other shitty decisions like blowing up the peace process with the PKK, dicking around in Syria without a clear strategy, turning a blind eye to Daesh, using the refugee flows as a weapon, his unsuccesful dickmeasuring contest with Putin and Assad and so forth.

Don't get me wrong, if I were in the Turkish army, I would have gotten the hell out of Dodge as soon as the proposal for a coup reached my ears. Coups are not the way to go, especially if the opposition isn't behind you. That being said, once it was underway, I think it would probably have been best for it to succeed.

After this failed attempt, expect a surge in Erdogan's popularity and a large purge. Not just of the army, he'll probably go after the opposition as well, now that he has a convenient excuse. I could be wrong of course, maybe this coup will act as a wake-up call and force Erdogan to show some contrition, we certainly have to hope for that, but I think it's best to expect the worst now and prepare for it. 

All of this sounds pretty much on point. Sad reality. 

[Veltigar]

Boy, oh boy, the victory of democracy seems to be going swell

Quote

Turkish authorities have removed 2,745 judges from duty following the coup attempt, broadcaster NTV reported, citing a decision by the High Council of Judges and Prosectors (HSYK).

Five members of HSYK, Turkey’s highest judiciary board, were also removed, state-run Anadolu Agency reported.

Now we have the executive branch of goverment using a coup from certain elements in the military to purge the judiciary branch of opponents of the regime. So much for the seperation of powers ey.

39 minutes ago, Relic said:

All of this sounds pretty much on point. Sad reality. 

With all the news we have been getting the past few days, you start to wonder if their is any other kind of reality 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Is there any way to prove the coup was instigated by Edrogan to give him causus belli to set himself up as a dictator?

[rhoynestar]

 

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is there any way to prove the coup was instigated by Edrogan to give him causus belli to set himself up as a dictator?

That would be priceless, indeed. Thought about it myself. 

 

[Relic]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is there any way to prove the coup was instigated by Edrogan to give him causus belli to set himself up as a dictator?

it's being discussed in many places currently. The suspicion is there, proof is a whole other matter. 

[Horza]

It makes no sense. The potential gains from consolidating power after a quashed coup aren't worth the risk of this super cunning plan backfiring Producers-style. Coups by their nature invite sheer chaos and expose the tenuous threads of power for all to see. Exposing trumped-up coup plots are one thing, deliberately courting that kind of damage to your legitimacy is something else entirely.

[Fez]

8 hours ago, Trigger Warning said:

They dropped the ball in not capturing the leadership first and now it's just going to get worse. 

We'll probably never truly know how close or not the coup got to succeeding. But it seems to me that they very nearly had it. If the troops who arrived at CNN Turkey had gotten there just a bit earlier, and prevented Erdogan from ever being able to broadcast nationally, that alone might've done. The rumors that he'd fled or been captured would've gotten stronger and stronger and a lot of his supporters might've never turned out in force.

[Free Northman Reborn]

The problem is that his supporters are the Islamists, the fanatics, the ones who have the guys running the mosque loudspeakers behind them.

These are the types that are willing to go and lie in front of frigging tanks for their leader, expecting their 72 virgins or whatever if the tank drives over them.

The secularists are never going to be as fanatical in support of their probably much more diverse causes as these white eyed fanatics are about Erdogan.

Pity. Now we have another Islamist stronghold on Europe's doorstep, and one that is part of Nato to boot. Bad outcome, any way you look at it.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

22 minutes ago, Horza said:

It makes no sense. The potential gains from consolidating power after a quashed coup aren't worth the risk of this super cunning plan backfiring Producers-style. Coups by their nature invite sheer chaos and expose the tenuous threads of power for all to see. Exposing trumped-up coup plots are one thing, deliberately courting that kind of damage to your legitimacy is something else entirely.

It doesn't sound like this coup attempt ever really got off the ground to be "risky".

[Altherion]

23 minutes ago, Fez said:

We'll probably never truly know how close or not the coup got to succeeding. But it seems to me that they very nearly had it. If the troops who arrived at CNN Turkey had gotten there just a bit earlier, and prevented Erdogan from ever being able to broadcast nationally, that alone might've done. The rumors that he'd fled or been captured would've gotten stronger and stronger and a lot of his supporters might've never turned out in force.

I disagree. They failed to secure the existing leadership (they had neither the president nor the prime minister). They failed to control the entirety of the national media. They failed to secure the cooperation or at least neutrality of most of the military. And finally, they were unprepared for dealing with crowds. I'm not sure what they actually accomplished beyond capturing some of the media and moving tanks into the major cities. At best, it looks like a bluff intended to get the leadership to run away.

[Horza]

15 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

It doesn't sound like this coup attempt ever really got off the ground to be "risky".

Scott, for about eight hours there were helicopter gunships firing on city streets, people getting crushed by tanks, soldiers getting kicked to death, security headquarters and parliament were bombed and nobody knew what was going on. The coup failed, but this was real shit.

[Philokles]

The Turkish PM has sent an ultimatum threatening war against any country that shelters Gülen. Strange move when he is in exile in Pennsylvania.

[Veltigar]

32 minutes ago, Horza said:

Scott, for about eight hours there were helicopter gunships firing on city streets, people getting crushed by tanks, soldiers getting kicked to death, security headquarters and parliament were bombed and nobody knew what was going on. The coup failed, but this was real shit.

Add to that that Turkey isn't exactly stable right now. Erdogan's popularity was on the wane before this coup. Plus, you never know what outside forces (Daesh and the PKK) could have done if this had lasted a little while longer.

55 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

These are the types that are willing to go and lie in front of frigging tanks for their leader, expecting their 72 virgins or whatever if the tank drives over them.

People fighting for liberty and civil rights can be pretty fanatical to you know. Remember Tiananmen Square?

 

 

[Fez]

52 minutes ago, Altherion said:

I disagree. They failed to secure the existing leadership (they had neither the president nor the prime minister). They failed to control the entirety of the national media. They failed to secure the cooperation or at least neutrality of most of the military. And finally, they were unprepared for dealing with crowds. I'm not sure what they actually accomplished beyond capturing some of the media and moving tanks into the major cities. At best, it looks like a bluff intended to get the leadership to run away.

The bit about the national media is my point. As for the rest, that's true. But coups almost never get every single one of their objectives, they get just enough to tip the balance in their favor. Perception is the most important thing.

It looks like at one point the coup controlled Turkey's: Military HQ, Intelligence HQ, Police HQ, Istanbul's airport, the two bridges, key public squares, at least two of the TV stations, and control of the air space. That's a lot of key positions. If they had gotten the rest of the national media or secured the PM, that probably would have been enough. 

They weren't prepared to deal with crowds, but the crowds wouldn't have been nearly as large if it looked like the coup had already succeeded. Likewise, the opposition leaders may not have denounced the coup if it looked like they'd won. And it wouldn't have mattered that a lot of the military wasn't on board on neutral, because they almost certainly wouldn't launch a counter-coup and plunge the country into civil war.

 

[James Arryn]

I'm just off the coast in Rhodes. Place is buzzing. They bombed across the way in Bodrum, which was visible from here, apparently, because they found out the President was there. So, I was in Nice a week or so back, in London for Brexit, in Budapest the day they closed it down, in Istanbul for the Taksim riots, in Vienna for the refugee camp storm, etc. My passport is starting to look a mite suspicious. Was going to go to Turkey from here, but I guess we'll see. 

May you live in interesting times. Those poor people. 

[Iskaral Pust]

5 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is there any way to prove the coup was instigated by Edrogan to give him causus belli to set himself up as a dictator?

This was my cynical thought.  Either the coup was staged to consolidate autocratic power or else it was very convenient for Erdogn in its ineptitude and timing.  

Either way, an autocratic Turkey warring with Kurds and asserting regional power looks a lot like a second Iran.  And the EU will appease him to stem the migrant flow.