Attempted Coup in Turkey

[Horza]

They apparently did know, but didn't manage to secure them. This report suggests that this was a rushed plot brought forward when plotters realised they were under surveillance.

[Altherion]

8 hours ago, Horza said:

And this is before we break out the balance of probabilites on being able to convince thousands and thousands of soldiers, cops, spooks, and who knows who else to shoot at fellow soldiers, MPs and people in the street because you've decided a fake coup is a really good and useful way to tidy up a few loose ends. And them all staying silent about that. Seriously bringing a plan like that up with your closest advisers sounds like a really good way to get yourself ousted for real.

It's not necessary to have all of them in on the plot -- all one needs is a few people on the inside. The leaders of the coup can be (mostly) in it for real, but as long as one knows when and where they will strike and can be out of the way, it is sufficient to simply let the coup go ahead.

[Horza]

1 minute ago, Altherion said:

It's not necessary to have all of them in on the plot -- all one needs is a few people on the inside. The leaders of the coup can be (mostly) in it for real, but as long as one knows when and where they will strike and can be out of the way, it is sufficient to simply let the coup go ahead.

Now you're suggesting something different. If there's a real coup plot and you know about it, it's no longer a false flag. I don't think that's what's happened here either, because knowingly letting a coup attempt go ahead is an incredibly risky thing to do, even if you've prepared for it. A coup strikes at the very base of political legitimacy, forcing everyone who upholds the status quo to ask themselves who they really serve - and there's no way to be sure what they'll say. That would be an incredible gamble for anyone, let alone someone like Erdogan, who sees Kemalist treachery and Gulenist parallel states behind every bush.

[SeanF]

The Reichstag Fire is a fair analogy, IMHO.

Marinus van der Lubbe really did intend to burn down the Reichstag.  The Nazis found out about it well in advance, let him make the attempt, and then used it as an excuse for a general crackdown on all their enemies.

[Horza]

22 minutes ago, SeanF said:

 The Nazis found out about it well in advance,

Citation needed.

[SeanF]

11 minutes ago, Horza said:

Citation needed.

That was certainly the view of William Shirer and Hans Gisevius.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Horza,

You clearly see Edrogan as dangerous why don't you think he either planned the fail coup or used prior knowledge of the coup to crush it and use it to further his own plans?

[Horza]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

That was certainly the view of William Shirer and Hans Gisevius.

Shirer, writing in the 50s without access to a fraction of the archival material historians can now draw upon, relies heavily upon Gisevius's testimony at Nuremberg but Gisevius for fairly obvious reasons needs to be taken with a grain of salt. In the mid '60s the 'Nazi foreknowledge' consensus swung around to the 'lone arsonist' theory after Fritz Tobias and Hans Mommsen's work. That consensus survived a revival of the foreknowledge thesis in the 90s, but now that thesis is under challenge by a new interpretation that undermines Tobias's evidence and revives the 'foreknowledge' case. As per the link, Richard Evans doesn't think much of the arguments (though apparently Ian Kershaw is much more impressed (Ctrl-F 'Kershaw' for it, and it would have been nice if Hett had given a citation for the quote)), but as Hett freely admits, the strongest point in defence of van der Lubbe as a lone actor is that nobody has plausibly connected him to the Nazis.
 

 

30 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Horza,

You clearly see Edrogan as dangerous why don't you think he either planned the fail coup or used prior knowledge of the coup to crush it and use it to further his own plans?

Scott, I think I made my points pretty clearly. You're free to disagree, but yanno, make a case.

[Altherion]

15 hours ago, Horza said:

Now you're suggesting something different. If there's a real coup plot and you know about it, it's no longer a false flag. I don't think that's what's happened here either, because knowingly letting a coup attempt go ahead is an incredibly risky thing to do, even if you've prepared for it. A coup strikes at the very base of political legitimacy, forcing everyone who upholds the status quo to ask themselves who they really serve - and there's no way to be sure what they'll say. That would be an incredible gamble for anyone, let alone someone like Erdogan, who sees Kemalist treachery and Gulenist parallel states behind every bush.

Depending on how much was known in advance (and something was clearly known), it might be essentially the same as a false flag. There is an element of risk, yes, but it can be minimized with a few carefully placed people whom one trusts and the payoff is substantial.

In related news, armed men in nearby Armenia decided to skip even relatively incompetent coup planning and simply seized a police station before demanding national changes such as the release of people they consider to be political prisoners. One would that having a recent example next door would be instructive, but it seems to be exactly the opposite. It would be highly amusing had they not killed at least one person in the process.

[Horza]

Just now, Altherion said:

Depending on how much was known in advance (and something was clearly known), it might be essentially the same as a false flag. There is an element of risk, yes, but it can be minimized with a few carefully placed people whom one trusts and the payoff is substantial.

It's clear that there was suspicion, because a lot of the apparent plotters were facing the sack at an upcoming military hearing. I guess you could argue that this was a dastardly clever way of inciting them into this coup, but why tip your hand like that at all if you want to encourage them to take action? You keep saying the risks can be minimised, but why would a study in paranoia like Erdogan be playing with matches like this, when his entire political life has been shaped by a well-founded distrust of the Turkish military and political establishment?

[Sophelia]

So, horrible and bizarre things are emerging

• 265 people killed (or more) including 104 coup-plotters (the precise number mentioned in that 'list' earlier - really strange), the rest a mixture of police and ordinary people who had gone into the public places at Erdogan's urging.
• people are angry and calling for the death penalty - if the Turkish parliament agreed then this would put an end to any future hopes of joining the EU (not that this was likely to happen soon in any case)
• rumours that the Incirlik Air Base (the Nato one) was closed for so long (open again now) because the person in charge was associated with the coup - they helped refuel the coup aircraft - and some of the coup soldiers were Turkey's Nato soldiers.
• wikileaks planning to release a lot of documents about Turkey's political situation which they say are both good and bad for Erdogan's party
• general reports of incompetence of plotters e.g. that they had to ask for directions to Erdogan's hotel in Marmaris which is partly why they arrived too late.  Rumour that they had aircraft guns pointed at his plane as it was flying to Istanbul but the pilot told them it was an Air Turkey flight and so they didn't shoot.
• Apart from thousands of arrests e.g. of judges and police as well as army, Erdogan has apparently cancelled holidays for millions of civil servants and banned them from leaving Turkey

[Sophelia]

When I heard about the coup I was shocked and worried about how it might effect the people and the country, and relieved it was over quickly.  Relief has now turned to a deeper worry about the effects on the people and the country.  Erdogan's extreme reactions continue, now hearing that all university deans (executives?) have been sacked along with thousands of schoolteachers and education workers.  The number of ordinary people who have suddenly lost their jobs without trials or tribunals, presumably with no recourse to appeal, is horrific.

[Fragile Bird]

I heard that 1,500 teachers were immediately sacked, and now 19,000 teachers have had their licences taken away.

And last night I heard that many of the rounded up were being held in a stadium somewhere, which brought images of Chile after the assassination of Allende so many years ago.

[Veltigar]

3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

And last night I heard that many of the rounded up were being held in a stadium somewhere, which brought images of Chile after the assassination of Allende so many years ago.

I have been thinking these last few days that the whole coup and its aftermath shows some remarkable parallells with the Auspicious Incident. I do hope in the longer run these parallells will cease, because otherwise we aren't really going anywhere good.

[DunderMifflin]

Does anyone know how the power balance between president and prime minister is intended to work in Turkey?

I read that Erdogan was PM before he was elected president and that during his time as PM the presidency was not much more than a cerimonial position.

Legally he could not run for PM again due to term limits so he ran for President and was elected.

[Veltigar]

19 minutes ago, DunderMifflin said:

Does anyone know how the power balance between president and prime minister is intended to work in Turkey?

I read that Erdogan was PM before he was elected president and that during his time as PM the presidency was not much more than a cerimonial position.

Legally he could not run for PM again due to term limits so he ran for President and was elected.

That about sums it up. As President, he doesn't really have that much direct power (of course, he does have tremendous influence). He wants to change that though. He wants to reshape the political configuration of Turkey by introducing a Presidential system in which the President isn't just a figurehead, but actually holds by far the most power. Tayyip's mad quest for this system has been the moving factor behind a lot of his crazy decisions over the last years. 

For example, when the previous elections delivered a blow to this ambition, on a count of him failing to procure the required amount of seats to alter Turkey's constitution thanks to the succes of the HDP, he decided to blow up the peace process with the PKK, which was doing well at the time and rush head long into a rekindled conflict with the Kurds. 

[DunderMifflin]

Seems to be working because all the worlds attention is on this guy as Turkey's leadership. PM guy looks like an afterthought.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

Erdogan once likened democracy to a train- you get off when you reach your destination.

[James Arryn]

On July 18, 2016 at 3:50 PM, Horza said:

It's clear that there was suspicion, because a lot of the apparent plotters were facing the sack at an upcoming military hearing. I guess you could argue that this was a dastardly clever way of inciting them into this coup, but why tip your hand like that at all if you want to encourage them to take action? You keep saying the risks can be minimised, but why would a study in paranoia like Erdogan be playing with matches like this, when his entire political life has been shaped by a well-founded distrust of the Turkish military and political establishment?

One hopes that without U.S. funding/support/intervention/logistics, this particular massacre would be less effective, at least.

[Horza]

7 hours ago, James Arryn said:

One hopes that without U.S. funding/support/intervention/logistics, this particular massacre would be less effective, at least.

I don't follow, what are you saying here?