Attempted Coup in Turkey

[Veltigar]

11 hours ago, James Arryn said:

One hopes that without U.S. funding/support/intervention/logistics, this particular massacre would be less effective, at least.

Erdogan has the West by the balls and he knows it. The US needs Turkish airports to bomb the shit out of Daesh and Al-Nusra. Furthermore, Turkey is a very important player in this unstable region, as well as a necessary counterweight to Russia. And Europe is even more impotent, since they got in bed with Tayyip to deal with the refugee crisis. Plus, it's not like the Turks aren't capable of organizing their own massacres. Ask the Armenians, they'll tell you. 

[Fez]

Per the AP's twitter feed:

Quote

BREAKING: Turkey deputy prime minister says his country to suspend European human rights convention under new state of emergency.

 

So, yeah. This is going really well. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

The reality is that a large enough purge, far from making a ruler less popular, can secure his control over a nation for a generation. See the histories of the Soviet Union and China as examples.

Erdogan could become stronger than ever because of this weak coup attempt. The reality is that an Islamist in charge of a state with Turkey's military power, population size and geo-strategic location is a far greater threat to Western interests than the lunatics in Syria, Iran and other backward Middle Eastern nations.

If anyone needs to be treated as the West's strategic enemy it is Erdogan, rather than the weakling Assad or the less powerful lunatics in Iran.

 

[The guy from the Vale]

It's a rare day for me to agree with FNR, but this seems painfully true, if perhaps presented in a slightly too certain way. But yes, I'm far more concerned about Erdogan than I've ever been about Syria or Iran (or even raq, for that matter). In part, that is because our governments depend on Erdogan far more than on Assad or the Ayatollahs, and because Turkey is part of NATO, so it could drag the West far further into trouble. We could get out of the Syrian nightmare (we're not going to any time soon, but we have the option). We're currently normalizing relations to Iran. But precisely because Turkey has been seen as an ally for so long, it has far better chances of causing turmoil.

[Iskaral Pust]

Turkey may cause a lot of turmoil but it may also become a bulwark against that turmoil.  If it tries to project its military power into Syria, Kurdish territory and ISIS-controlled territory, plus political power into Lebanon and the Levant, it could effectively focus all the resulting unrest on Turkey, while shielding Europe and America from fall-out, assuming NATO does not get drawn into any non-Russian conflict.  By stepping into that role, they become the focus of the local agita.  It would involve oppression of millions, a new generation of grudges, a retreat from democracy in the region and eventually another collapse into renewed anarchy, but in the meantime the turmoil could be mostly localized.

Allowing Turkey to become that is basically similar to allowing the rise of Saddam Hussein all those years ago.  Realpolitik returns because I don't think anyone is about to invade Turkey to stop this.

[Sophelia]

Today I was chatting to a Turkish man who lives in the UK (he had just come back from holiday in Turkey) and I asked him how things were there, with teachers being sacked and so on.  What he told me was rather chilling, but not in the way I expected. 

He said that everything is fine.  The teachers who were arrested were fake teachers, and the police etc. were fake police - the fake teachers had not passed their exams and were fraudulent.  The genuine teachers are not in danger.  Turkey is going to be great friends with Russia now, and in 2023 Turkey will finally become as great as America.  Turkey has been kept down by America, because of a treaty signed in 1923 which means that Turkey can't use its own oil etc.  This Gulen fellow, he told me, was taken from Turkey at a young age and indoctrinated by the US so that he would in turn set up schools in Turkey to indoctrinate young people and to infiltrate the army etc.  There will be another coup on August 14th, because that was the Gulenists' plan - but the people will rise up and stop that one too.

I wonder if these are standard beliefs in Turkey?  It makes me want to read some Turkish history (probably from several different sources...) because I have no idea where any of this comes from.  I really know so little.

[Toth]

On 11.8.2016 at 11:09 PM, Sophelia said:

Today I was chatting to a Turkish man who lives in the UK (he had just come back from holiday in Turkey) and I asked him how things were there, with teachers being sacked and so on.  What he told me was rather chilling, but not in the way I expected. 

He said that everything is fine.  The teachers who were arrested were fake teachers, and the police etc. were fake police - the fake teachers had not passed their exams and were fraudulent.  The genuine teachers are not in danger.  Turkey is going to be great friends with Russia now, and in 2023 Turkey will finally become as great as America.  Turkey has been kept down by America, because of a treaty signed in 1923 which means that Turkey can't use its own oil etc.  This Gulen fellow, he told me, was taken from Turkey at a young age and indoctrinated by the US so that he would in turn set up schools in Turkey to indoctrinate young people and to infiltrate the army etc.  There will be another coup on August 14th, because that was the Gulenists' plan - but the people will rise up and stop that one too.

I wonder if these are standard beliefs in Turkey?  It makes me want to read some Turkish history (probably from several different sources...) because I have no idea where any of this comes from.  I really know so little.

That really depends on the political leanings of the person you are speaking with. This wholesome gobbling up of Erdogan's propaganda seems to be mostly confined to immigrant Turkish with lacking integration (so those who have few native friends and collegues and seek comfort by keeping among other Turkish). It seems that Erdogan gets quite alot of support among Turkish outside the country by building up some kind of Turkish identity and contrasting it with the culture they actually live in.

With that in mind, living in Berlin I have quite a lot of Turkish acquintances. Most of them are young, well integrated and pursue academic careers. And pretty much all of them were horrified by the things happening in Turkey, one acquintance even got an uncle of hers arrested (a military officer who is now threatened with execution). They also explained to me that there is a rift between the first generation of migrants and the second one. Those who arrived in Germany and have still strong ties to Turkey (and rely on Erdogan-controlled newspapers) seem to be more likely followers of Erdogan while those raised in Germany are often baffled about the excuses they make when it comes to his politics.

Then again, my Turkish acquintances are only academics, so keep that in mind...

[A Horse Named Stranger]

On 22.7.2016 at 0:50 AM, Iskaral Pust said:

Turkey may cause a lot of turmoil but it may also become a bulwark against that turmoil.  If it tries to project its military power into Syria, Kurdish territory and ISIS-controlled territory, plus political power into Lebanon and the Levant, it could effectively focus all the resulting unrest on Turkey, while shielding Europe and America from fall-out, assuming NATO does not get drawn into any non-Russian conflict.  By stepping into that role, they become the focus of the local agita.  It would involve oppression of millions, a new generation of grudges, a retreat from democracy in the region and eventually another collapse into renewed anarchy, but in the meantime the turmoil could be mostly localized.

Allowing Turkey to become that is basically similar to allowing the rise of Saddam Hussein all those years ago.  Realpolitik returns because I don't think anyone is about to invade Turkey to stop this.

Intervening to remove a bad guy with an army for some more cooperative puppet has worked so great with Iraq that you are in for a repeat? This coup is afterall an internal affair of Turkey. I am not particularly fond of the crazy bull from the Bosporus, but an outside intervention has the potential to make a bad situation so much worse. 

However I just wish the EU politicians grow a spine and tell Erdogan to f... off, even if that means that horrible refugee deal is off the table. Because the situation as it is now, is simply unaccetable. If the EU was as keen on human rights, as they always claim they are, they would have done just that and threatened to impose sanctions on Turkey. 

[Jo498]

16 hours ago, Notone said:

However I just wish the EU politicians grow a spine and tell Erdogan to f... off, even if that means that horrible refugee deal is off the table. Because the situation as it is now, is simply unaccetable. If the EU was as keen on human rights, as they always claim they are, they would have done just that and threatened to impose sanctions on Turkey. 

I fully agree. This is really disgusting, but we have experienced very similar behavior with China (and other countries) when there are a few weak remarks made about "the state of human rights" but afterwards we are very quick to let the business delegations do their thing...

The only "good thing" about it is that it makes it painfully clear that "we" (EU, generally the West) don't care at all about "human rights" unless they can be used as a political weapon.

[Happy Ent]

22 hours ago, Toth said:

With that in mind, living in Berlin I have quite a lot of Turkish acquintances. Most of them are young, well integrated and pursue academic careers. And pretty much all of them were horrified by the things happening in Turkey, one acquintance even got an uncle of hers arrested (a military officer who is now threatened with execution). They also explained to me that there is a rift between the first generation of migrants and the second one. Those who arrived in Germany and have still strong ties to Turkey (and rely on Erdogan-controlled newspapers) seem to be more likely followers of Erdogan while those raised in Germany are often baffled about the excuses they make when it comes to his politics.

Then again, my Turkish acquintances are only academics, so keep that in mind...

That is an important caveat. Tens of thousands of Turks in Germany have assembled in pro-Erdogan demonstrations in the past weeks (and I know of very little visible anti-Erdogan sentiment from the Turkish community, nor much political or ideological activity about any topic at all). 

So I think it is, sadly, fair to say that Turks in Germany strongly support the Erdogan government, notwithstanding your anecdotal evidence (or mine, for that matter).  

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Will the US or the EU actually stand up to this man who is violating every norm of Western freedom of expression, speech, dissent, and normal political discourse?

[Jo498]

Very probably not because he is an important ally at the head of a strategically important NATO state. Remember that in the 70s the US would install far worse "strong men" in Latin America and Africa to stem the Red Flood.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

Yeah, if you just go by friends and acquaintances of Board members, then you'd expect Trump to be losing 90-5.

[Fez]

I haven't seen it verified anywhere yet, but some reporters I follow on Twitter are starting to retweet accounts out of Turkey saying security forces are in the process of arresting all HDP members of parliament. That's the pro-Kurdish party and the third largest party in parliament.

Guess even the sham of democracy in Turkey is now over.

[Fragile Bird]

Wow.  Just wow. 

But after they fired and arrested so many teachers and professors across the country, not to mention shutting down the press and arresting reporters, I guess many in Turkey were just waiting for that to happen.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I was surprised it took them that long. On related news, the police raided the offices of the Cumhuriyet, pretty much the last Turkish newspaper in opposition to Erdogan a few days ago.

[Altherion]

Russian newspapers are saying that Facebook, WhatsApp, Twitter, etc. have been blocked in at least some parts of Turkey. It would be surprising if Erdogan has decided to move against the Kurds in parliament -- that would leave them no options except violence and now is not a good time for that.

[Fragile Bird]

Just heard on the news that there was a massive explosion in a Turkish city. I didn't recognize the name.

[Future Null Infinity]

2 hours ago, Nasty Fragile Bird said:

Just heard on the news that there was a massive explosion in a Turkish city. I didn't recognize the name.

http://turkey.liveuamap.com/en/2016/4-november-bombblast-in-diyarbakir-killed-eight-people-and

Bomb-blast in Diyarbakir, killed eight people and injured dozens of others

maybe related to the detentions

 

[Fez]

Seems it wasn't all the parliament members of HDP, it was 11 of them; including its two leaders.