Strange Varys actions

[Starkdirewolf]

IF Varys is the targaryean supporter that many of us believe, why does he oversee the whole assassinating dany farce? Does he know for a fact that any attempt would not be very succesful or did i miss something? what if someone did actually kill her? And did anyone actually retract the order to kill her or did everyone assume that she is no longer a price on her head now that robert is dead. 

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

I think Varys set up the assassin, but warned Jorah so he could save Dany.

I don't think the Small Council ever put out a price on Dany's head, they just gave Varys the job of arranging her death. From their perspective, the attempt failed and killing Dany wasn't a priority for Joffrey or Tommen.

[dornishdragon]

On the books Varys doesn't support Dany but another 'Targaryen'. 

On the show on the beginning I think he was beginning to Dany, he organized her assassination attempt because he was only following Dany's orders. He only starts to support her after seeing the devastation brought by the War of the Five Kings when he sees she is the best leader to the Seven Kingdoms and also the stronger contestant to the crown. 

 

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

Varys's plan was Aegon. Viserys and Dany were just distraction for Robert, so he wouldn't notice if Varys hired the golden company and stuff. He didn't expect Dany to survive.

He probably did warn Ser Jorah for the attempts though the more attempts would fail,  the longer Robert would be distracted. 

Dany only became interesting when she started hatching dragons. 

[Starkdirewolf]

12 minutes ago, dornishdragon said:

On the books Varys doesn't support Dany but another 'Targaryen'. 

On the show on the beginning I think he was beginning to Dany, he organized her assassination attempt because he was only following Dany's orders. He only starts to support her after seeing the devastation brought by the War of the Five Kings when he sees she is the best leader to the Seven Kingdoms and also the stronger contestant to the crown. 

 

I know the difference between show and books. i believe that varys and illyrio was working together at the time, we have proof in aryas chapter in the red keep tunnels. Why marry her to a dothraki warlord with a huge army, why give her 3 dragon eggs. in theory, at that point in time they are supporting  Viserys. The war of the 5 kings happens after all events in A GAME OF THRONES the first book 

the other Targaryen you mean is Aegon im guessing? 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

I don't believe that Varys is a Targ supporter. Varys is a Varys' and family supporter. He doesn't support Dany he supports FAegon.

[dRagonese]

2 hours ago, Starkdirewolf said:

IF Varys is the targaryean supporter that many of us believe, why does he oversee the whole assassinating dany farce? Does he know for a fact that any attempt would not be very succesful or did i miss something? what if someone did actually kill her? And did anyone actually retract the order to kill her or did everyone assume that she is no longer a price on her head now that robert is dead. 

At this point i think he really did not care if she died. He had viserys and Aegon in his back pocket. Dani had not revealed herself to be the leader we now know. Also killing her would throw anyone off his scent later on when aegon came to town or V dog came to town, he could point back to the Dani killing and say he was always team baratheon. Obviously it worked better that she lived but i think he was ok either way.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

1 hour ago, Starkdirewolf said:

I know the difference between show and books. i believe that varys and illyrio was working together at the time, we have proof in aryas chapter in the red keep tunnels. Why marry her to a dothraki warlord with a huge army, why give her 3 dragon eggs. in theory, at that point in time they are supporting  Viserys. The war of the 5 kings happens after all events in A GAME OF THRONES the first book 

the other Targaryen you mean is Aegon im guessing? 

He knew the Dothraki would never cross the poison water. Again this was just meant as a distraction for Robert, so that he would have time to arrange everything with the Golden Company, so Aegon could take Westeros unexpected. Varys and Illyrio knew full well that Viserys could never lead an army, and they saw Dany as just a little girl who would likely die between the hard and cruel Dothraki.

They were a means to an end, not his plan. Aegon was.

[Starkdirewolf]

4 hours ago, Manderly's Rat Cook said:

He knew the Dothraki would never cross the poison water. Again this was just meant as a distraction for Robert, so that he would have time to arrange everything with the Golden Company, so Aegon could take Westeros unexpected. Varys and Illyrio knew full well that Viserys could never lead an army, and they saw Dany as just a little girl who would likely die between the hard and cruel Dothraki.

They were a means to an end, not his plan. Aegon was.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I think Varys set up the assassin, but warned Jorah so he could save Dany.

I don't think the Small Council ever put out a price on Dany's head, they just gave Varys the job of arranging her death. From their perspective, the attempt failed and killing Dany wasn't a priority for Joffrey or Tommen.

Exactly. The Dothraki/Targaryen problem resolved itself for Joffrey when the news about Viserys' (and eventually Drogo's) death arrived in KL. He even brags about the death of the Beggar King early on in ACoK.

The attempts were no distraction but a crucial of Varys and Illyrio's plan. They needed to convince Drogo to invade Westeros, knowing fully well that he was not inclined to do so. And for that they had to make it appear as if Dany and Viserys were really in danger from Robert and that his people would actually dare to attack a khaleesi of the Dothraki. Once that was established everything worked the way they wanted it to work. Until Drogo died.

[Lost Melnibonean]

In Eddard VIII, Game 33, we learn that Jorah has informed Varys, presumably through Illyrio, that Daenerys is pregnant. . .

Quote

“Ser Jorah would not dare deceive me,” Varys said with a sly smile. “Rely on it, my lord. The princess is with child.”

Why wouldn't Jorah dare deceive Varys? Presumably because Varys, through Illyrio, would have Jorah killed. 

Quote

“Gods! You are stubborn as an aurochs, Stark.” The king looked around the council table. “Have the rest of you mislaid your tongues? Will no one talk sense to this frozen-faced fool?"

Varys gave the king an unctuous smile and laid a soft hand on Ned’s sleeve. “I understand your qualms, Lord Eddard, truly I do. It gave me no joy to bring this grievous news to council. It is a terrible thing we contemplate, a vile thing. Yet we who presume to rule must do vile things for the good of the realm, howevermuch it pains us.”

So, not only does Varys inform king and council that Daenerys is pregnant, which could be explained by Varys needing to maintain trust, but here we see him encourage the king to attempt to assassinate her. 

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“Kinder,” Varys said. “Oh, well and truly spoken, Grand Maester. It is so true. Should the gods in their caprice grant Daenerys Targaryen a son, the realm must bleed.” 

What is the reader to make of this? This could simply be Varys playing yes-man. Or this could be Varys setting up a Rube Goldberg plot to provoke Drogo. One might think Varys would not want a challenger to his preferred claimant, but then Varys would not have prevented the assassination. Given that Varys was so concerned about Drogo bestirring himself soon, it seems most likely that Varys was attempting to provoke Drogo into action. Still it seems awfully risky. If Varys had not been able to foil the assassination attempt, Drogo might not have felt inclined to support Illyrio's ulterior motive any longer. Moreover, the way the attempt unfolded, we know Drogo would have been killed as well. 

Quote

“Mormont craves a royal pardon,” Lord Renly reminded them.

“Desperately,” Varys said, “yet he craves life even more. By now, the princess nears Vaes Dothrak, where it is death to draw a blade. If I told you what the Dothraki would do to the poor man who used one on a khaleesi, none of you would sleep tonight.” He stroked a powdered cheek. “Now, poison … the tears of Lys, let us say. Khal Drogo need never know it was not a natural death.”

Here we see Varys protect his asset in Jorah and notice that he suggests the method that is apparently used by the wineseller. 

When Daenerys VI Game 54 opens, Viserys has already been "crowned," but interestingly Illyrio does not yet know this. Presumably Jorah would have sent word back, but not before Varys's would-be assassin departed with the caravan out of Pentos.

Daenerys attempts to persade Drogo into winning the Iron Throne for their son, but Drogo refuses, expressing no desire to cross the Narrow Sea. We have to wonder whether Drogo is still just delaying to honor a commitment to Illyrio until the birth of his heir, or whether Drogo believes that his end of the bargain is moot now that Viserys is dead. 

In any event, Jorah is anxious to meet a newly arrived caravan from Pentos to see if Illyrio has sent any communication. He shrugs off Daenerys, though, preferring to see the caravan captain alone. 

Note here that the wine seller apparently expects that Daenerys will share the wine with Drogo. . . 

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“Khal Drogo and I will share it together. Aggo, take this back to my litter, if you’d be so kind.” The wineseller beamed as the Dothraki hefted the cask.

Note here that the caravan captain was not surprised. Does this mean he was in on it? Was he a fail safe in case Jorah could not prevent the assassination? 

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A dozen caravan guards had come running. With them was the master himself, Merchant Captain Byan Votyris, a diminutive Norvoshi with skin like old leather and a bristling blue mustachio that swept up to his ears. He seemed to know what had happened without a word being spoken. 

In the wake of the attempt, Drogo vows . . .

Quote

“And to Rhaego son of Drogo, the stallion who will mount the world, to him I also pledge a gift. To him I will give this iron chair his mother’s father sat in. I will give him Seven Kingdoms. I, Drogo, khal, will do this thing.” His voice rose, and he lifted his fist to the sky. “I will take my khalasar west to where the world ends, and ride the wooden horses across the black salt water as no khal has done before. I will kill the men in the iron suits and tear down their stone houses. I will rape their women, take their children as slaves, and bring their broken gods back to Vaes Dothrak to bow down beneath the Mother of Mountains. This I vow, I, Drogo son of Bharbo. This I swear before the Mother of Mountains, as the stars look down in witness.” 

Is this what Illyrio and Varys intended? Keep in mind that when the bargain was struck, Viserys was alive. When the assassination was ordered but set up to be foiled, Viserys was alive. When Drogo vowed to conquer the Seven Kingdoms for Rhaego, Viserys was already dead. 

So, after Drogo vows to conquer Westeros, we are left to wonder whether this is what Illyrio and Varys intended. Is this what Illyrio and Varys intended? But Drogo only vowed to do this when Viserys was already dead, and we will learn later on that Illyrio had told the Golden Company that Viserys would join them with fifty thousand Dothraki. 

Thus, it seems possible that Illyrio and Varys intended for the foiled assassination to bestir Drogo into beginning preparations for a joint invasion. 

In Daenerys VII, Game 61, we see that this is extremely likely since Jorah tells Daenerys. . . 

Quote

"I've told the khal he ought to make for Meereen," Ser Jorah said. "They'll pay a better price than he'd get from a slaving caravan. Illyrio writes that they had a plague last year, so the brothels are paying double for healthy young girls, and triple for boys under ten. If enough children survive the journey, the gold will buy us all the ships we need, and hire men to sail them."

I doubt Illyrio included that tidbit in his letter as gossip or idle chit-chat. 

I can see why the bait-and-switch theory developed (that Illyrio and Varys intended for Drogo and Viserys to invade Westeros, devastating the armies and causing the people to look for deliverance and finding it in Aegon and the Golden Company). Drogo’s vow suggests that his presence in Westeros would not be appreciated, and it suggests that he would not be participating in a joint invasion with the Golden Company. But keep in mind that Viserys was dead when Drogo made this vow. 

in Daenerys I, Storm 8, we get this little nugget aboard the recently renamed ship Balerion, headed back to Pentos...

Quote

 

"Magister Illyrio has protected me in the past. Strong Belwas says that he wept when he heard my brother was dead."

"Yes," said Mormont, "but did he weep for Viserys, or for the plans he had made with him?"

 

This suggests that Illyrio's plans were upset by Viserys's death, but that Illyrio did not have any care for Viserys himself. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

11 hours ago, Starkdirewolf said:

I know the difference between show and books. i believe that varys and illyrio was working together at the time, we have proof in aryas chapter in the red keep tunnels. Why marry her to a dothraki warlord with a huge army, why give her 3 dragon eggs. in theory, at that point in time they are supporting  Viserys. The war of the 5 kings happens after all events in A GAME OF THRONES the first book 

the other Targaryen you mean is Aegon im guessing? 

In Daenerys I, Game 3, we learn that Illyrio has been aiding the Targlings and showering them with gifts for the past six months. Viserys believes that Illyrio is doing this for profit, believing that Illyrio expects to be rewarded when he comes into his throne, but Daenerys’s misgivings, as well as the fact that they were left to run from city to city for several years before Illyrio began to succor them, suggests right away to the reader that Illyrio’s motives should be questioned.

Quote

Dany could smell the stench of Illyrio's pallid flesh through his heavy perfumes.

(Beware the perfumed seneschal, Daenerys.) When Viserys talks about making good his claim to the Iron Throne, he declares that he will kill Robert Baratheon himself, to which Illyrio replies, “That would be most fitting," but Daenerys notices “the smallest hint of a smile playing around his full lips,” which Viserys fails to notice. 

A wealthy Magister in the Free City of Pentos, Illyrio deals in spices, gemstones, dragonbone, and other, less savory things. He has friends in all of the Nine Free Cities and beyond, in Vaes Dothrak and the fabled lands beside the JadeSea. 

Illyrio, who speaks Dothraki, has brokered a betrothal between Drogo, khal of the greatest of the Dothraki khalasars, and Daenerys, that, at first blush, appears to benefit Viserys’s claim to the Iron Throne...

Quote

"We won't need his whole khalasar," Viserys said. His fingers toyed with the hilt of his borrowed blade, though Dany knew he had never used a sword in earnest. "Ten thousand, that would be enough, I could sweep the Seven Kingdoms with ten thousand Dothraki screamers.”

Notice that Viserys suggests that he does not need Drogo’s entire khalasar of one hundred thousand, including forty thousand fighters, to make good his claim; Viserys believes he only needs ten thousand. This suggests that a higher number of Drogo’s warriors may have been contemplated , but Viserys seems to only want ten thousand.

In Daenerys II, Game 11, we see that Illyrio, who speaks Dothraki, has an extensive knowledge of Dothraki customs. We also learn that, through Illyrio, Khal Drogo has promised Viserys a crown. While this is a foreshadowing of the crown of molten gold Drogo actually gives Viserys, the passage clearly suggests to the reader that Drogo has bargained for his bride by promising to support materially Viserys’s claim. But we can only trust Illyrio so far. So, whether Drogo actually promised to support Viserys’s claim in exchange for his Targaryen bride, or Drogo actually promised Illyrio a number of Dothraki fighters, or Illyrio brokered the marriage to secure Drogo’s friendship in hopes of obtaining his material support, we cannot know with certainty. In any event, Illyrio tells us that Drogo will not aid Viserys until after he presents Daenerys to the dosh khaleen, and then, only “if the omens favor war," suggesting that Viserys should be prepared to wait “another few years." And notice that Jorah supports Illyrio in his counsel to Viserys.

Once again, we see a hint that Illyrio has some ulterior motive. When Viserys claims that he is “no lesser man,” but “the rightful Lord of the Seven Kingdoms,” and that “[t]he dragon does not beg," Daenerys notices. . .

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Illyrio smiled enigmatically and tore a wing from the duck. Honey and grease ran over his fingers and dripped down into his beard as he nibbled at the tender meat.

A bit later, we encounter the three egg MacGuffins. . .

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"Dragon's eggs, from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai," said Magister Illyrio. "The eons have turned them to stone, yet still they burn bright with beauty."

We are told expressly that these three dragon’s eggs are ancient, petrified eggs from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai, and we recall that Illyrio is a trader in dragonbone with a trading network that stretches to the fabled lands beside the Jade Sea.

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"I shall treasure them always." Dany had heard tales of such eggs, but she had never seen one, nor thought to see one. It was a truly magnificent gift, though she knew that Illyrio could afford to be lavish. He had collected a fortune in horses and slaves for his part in selling her to Khal Drogo.

Here we learn that the three dragon’s eggs are worth the fortune in horses and slaves that Illyrio collected from Drogo for brokering the marriage pact. Does this mean that Illyrio gave Daenerys to Drogo, so Drogo gave Illyrio a fortune in horses and slaves? If so, then Drogo would not “owe” Viserys a crown, would he? On the other hand, should we believe that Daenerys’s property was, in fact, the property of her khal, and that by giving Daenerys such “a truly magnificent gift,” that Illyrio had upset the gift-giving balance back in his favor?

But keep in mind this could be nothing more than a plot device. In his 1993 letter, outlining A Song of Ice and Fire, we see that The George initially intended to have Daenerys stumble upon a nest of petrified dragon’s eggs on the edge of the Dothraki Sea.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Exactly. The Dothraki/Targaryen problem resolved itself for Joffrey when the news about Viserys' (and eventually Drogo's) death arrived in KL. He even brags about the death of the Beggar King early on in ACoK.

Ah yes, I forgot about Viserys. I suppose the view from King's Landing was that Viserys was dead, and Drogo was dead, and that Daenerys was probably dead, too - or with the Dosh Khaleen, if they know about such things. Either way, as far as the Baratheon regime is concerned, the Targaryens are finished. (And Varys makes sure they keep thinking that, for as long as possible. After all, once word reaches Illyrio from Qarth that Dany is alive, the new plan is to marry her to Aegon, so it's best that they keep Dany hidden. Unfortunately, Jorah talks her into going to Astapor instead, and it can't be kept quiet that she's conquered Slaver's Bay.)

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The attempts were no distraction but a crucial of Varys and Illyrio's plan. They needed to convince Drogo to invade Westeros, knowing fully well that he was not inclined to do so. And for that they had to make it appear as if Dany and Viserys were really in danger from Robert and that his people would actually dare to attack a khaleesi of the Dothraki. Once that was established everything worked the way they wanted it to work. Until Drogo died.

If I may be ultra-pedantic, however, I'd say that the fake assassination attempt wasn't so much a crucial element of their plan as it was a (relatively) desperate improvisation. If things had gone wrong, Dany and Drogo both could have died. But the Stark/Lannister situation was coming to a head, and Westeros would be at war ahead of schedule. Since he couldn't stop that from happening, the next best thing was to  hurry Drogo along.

15 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

So, not only does Varys inform king and council that Daenerys is pregnant, which could be explained by Varys needing to maintain trust, but here we see him encourage the king to attempt to assassinate her.

Per the conversation that Arya overhears, it seems that they were always planning to have the Dothraki invade, but just not yet. Varys could've spent years shining Robert on, telling him of foiled attempts that never took place - hell, he didn't need to tell him that Daenarys was pregnant at all - but things changed and they had to make lemonade.

It seems like the original plan was to wed Dany to Drogo, and then wait until Drogo was willing to invade, and try to match it up with the correct level of political instability in Westeros - but events forced them to move up their schedule.

Or, who knows, perhaps they always planned to use a fake assassination to prod Drogo into acting.

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A couple of other interesting things:

- Meereen had a plague the previous year. I wonder if the area is particularly plague-prone? All those slaves coming from all different places, presumably forced into cramped and unhealthy living situations...

- Merchant Captain Byan Votyris? Interesting that he was named. I wonder if we'll be seeing him again in The Winds of Winter?

- The Golden Company - if they were initially meant to invade along with the Dothraki, were they supposed to be patsies? The villains in the story Varys is telling, waiting to be swept aside by Aegon and whatever friends he can dredge up?

- What about Viserys? It could have been years until Khal Drogo decided to head west. We know Illyrio didn't want Viserys to leave with Drogo. What was he going to be doing for the rest of that time? Just chillin' in Pentos? Or perhaps serving to distract Robert from Dany, and even more so, from Aegon.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

If I may be ultra-pedantic, however, I'd say that the fake assassination attempt wasn't so much a crucial element of their plan as it was a (relatively) desperate improvisation. If things had gone wrong, Dany and Drogo both could have died. But the Stark/Lannister situation was coming to a head, and Westeros would be at war ahead of schedule. Since he couldn't stop that from happening, the next best thing was to  hurry Drogo along.

You only are stuck with that if you actually assume that the wine merchant's wine was actually poisoned. If that guy was Varys and Illyrio's agent/pawn then he most likely received said wine from their agents and was only told it was poisoned. All they then needed to do to ensure that Dany and Viserys knew/believed they were targeted was to write a letter to Viserys and Jorah telling them about Robert's assassination plot.

The idea that Varys/Illyrio would actually ever give some guy a chance to actually poison Dany or Drogo (!) is insane because the Dothraki invasion is a crucial part of their plan. The fact that the cask in which the poisoned wine is supposed to be was closed is pretty much a confirmation of that fact, as is the quick response of the Pentoshi merchant captain.

It is quite clear that the wine merchant only would have wanted to poison Dany and Drogo with a poison that appears to cause a natural death, like the Tears of Lys. He had no intention to kill Dany quickly at his shop. But such kind of poison is difficult to come by and it is totally unbelievable that some opportunist would actually dare to arrange something entirely on his own just expecting to receive a lordship from Robert in distant Westeros or something like that.

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Or, who knows, perhaps they always planned to use a fake assassination to prod Drogo into acting.

I'm pretty sure this was the case. There is a reason why Varys keeps Robert continuously apprised of the Targaryen situation. Illyrio says they aren't yet ready in AGoT but the invasion wasn't far away at this point. I think if there hadn't been a falling out between Viserys and Drogo (which was essentially just Dany's fault if you check it in detail) the Drogo would have decided to make the Iron Throne his gift for Dany's brother rather than his own son when he had learned about the cowardly poison attempt. King Robert had dared to strike at his own in the middle of the sacred city of the Dothraki. It would have been very difficult to just brush this off or ignore it.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

25 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

...a falling out between Viserys and Drogo (which was essentially just Dany's fault if you check it in detail)...

Zah?

[Dorian Martell]

On 7/16/2016 at 7:39 AM, Starkdirewolf said:

IF Varys is the targaryean supporter that many of us believe, why does he oversee the whole assassinating dany farce? Does he know for a fact that any attempt would not be very succesful or did i miss something? what if someone did actually kill her? And did anyone actually retract the order to kill her or did everyone assume that she is no longer a price on her head now that robert is dead. 

He was a targ supporter in so much as he served Aerys. serving aerys meant uncovering any plots against him, including those by his son and heir. He begged the king not to opent het gates to Tywin, and when the king died, he moved to protect the king's heir, (f)Aegon. when Bob wanted to kill Dany, Varys could have hired a faceless man to do it, but he didn't. He send a catspaw, and then told Jorah of it. Varys and Illyrio seem to not care much for Viserys and Dany becasue they are not the heirs to Aerys. 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Zah?

I mean Dany being the one who publicly humiliated Viserys and made him walk, effectively destroying whatever standing he had with the Dothraki completely. I don't see a reason why Drogo shouldn't have felt honor-bound to fulfill the promise he gave to Viserys if things had been different. As far as we know he owed him one and knew that.

Also keep in mind that we actually don't know who came up with the Dothraki marriage idea and whether Viserys was persuaded to do this or whether he actually actively tried to make an alliance by arranging a marriage for Daenerys. 

[Starkdirewolf]

So if R+L=J is true and varys learned of this what difference would that make, would varys see him as a threat to his cause, a potential ally or support him as king (unlikely but thoughts?)?

what would Aegon and Dany do when they learn of a secret Brother/Nephew? 

Any threads on this topic?

[Lord Lannister]

Because the best way to kill someone is to send a poison wine merchant that the victim may or may not just happen upon. I always considered the attempt a half-assed attempt to save face by saying he tried without any real expectation of success.

[sifth]

Varys was playing both sides for the first three books, which means even though he's fully supporting the Targs, he needed to give Robert and the Lannisters real and reliable information. The whole assassination thing was a ploy. Varys helped set up the assassin, but then warns Jorah to be on the look out and protect Dany.