Strange Varys actions

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, sifth said:

Varys was playing both sides for the first three books, which means even though he's fully supporting the Targs, he needed to give Robert and the Lannisters real and reliable information. The whole assassination thing was a ploy. Varys helped set up the assassin, but then warns Jorah to be on the look out and protect Dany.

Or the assassin never was an assassin and only believed he had poisoned wine. That would be much easier. Varys wasn't really that obliged to give Robert as good information on the Targaryens as he had. He did that very deliberately.

[Yollo/Hugor Hill/Tyrion]

On 7/16/2016 at 11:46 AM, Starkdirewolf said:

I know the difference between show and books. i believe that varys and illyrio was working together at the time, we have proof in aryas chapter in the red keep tunnels. Why marry her to a dothraki warlord with a huge army, why give her 3 dragon eggs. in theory, at that point in time they are supporting  Viserys. The war of the 5 kings happens after all events in A GAME OF THRONES the first book 

the other Targaryen you mean is Aegon im guessing? 

Dany and Viserys give legitimacy to Aegon's claim that he is a Targaryan because, while no one can prove that Aegon survived, everyone knows who they are and are fully aware of their legitimate claims to the throne whereas if Aegon tried to conquer the Seven Kingdoms alone people would always question if he was real. He needs them to back up his (false) story

[sifth]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Or the assassin never was an assassin and only believed he had poisoned wine. That would be much easier. Varys wasn't really that obliged to give Robert as good information on the Targaryens as he had. He did that very deliberately.

Well he told Robert about the marriage and that Dany was with child. That's pretty reliable info. I know he was using the outcome for his own ends, but still he needed to give Robert something real or he would have killed him. With the Lannisters however his info on Dany becomes much less frequent. He tells them that Viserys was killed and that dragons have been spotted in Essos, but very little else.

[The Mammoth Vanishes]

Ive Always thought the plan was to set up 2 Targs to scrap it out (meaning the people of westeros have to pick one of them).

Viserys and dothraki descending on westeros = bad guys.

FAegon and Golden company = good guys.

 

they turn up and fight off Viserys and the dothraki when they are weakened, save the day and everyone loves the Targs again. 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, sifth said:

Well he told Robert about the marriage and that Dany was with child. That's pretty reliable info. I know he was using the outcome for his own ends, but still he needed to give Robert something real or he would have killed him. With the Lannisters however his info on Dany becomes much less frequent. He tells them that Viserys was killed and that dragons have been spotted in Essos, but very little else.

Yeah, but is Robert actually pestering Varys with information on the Targaryens or does Varys give Robert that information of his own free will to manipulate him? We don't know. I'd agree that Robert most likely was very interested in new information on the Targaryens.

The idea that Varys' life was in real danger from Robert is quite a stretch, actually. Varys claims this when talking to Ned but that's just talk. Robert is a very mild guy who pretty much pardoned anybody. Why should he want to kill Varys?

[Yollo/Hugor Hill/Tyrion]

2 minutes ago, The Mammoth Vanishes said:

Ive Always thought the plan was to set up 2 Targs to scrap it out (meaning the people of westeros have to pick one of them).

 

No the plan was to have Viserys and his dothraki meet up with the Golden Company and invade. Personally i think Varys was going to have Viserys killed after they started winning because he was as bad as his dad and had a better claim than "Aegon" does

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

On July 16, 2016 at 6:46 PM, Lord Varys said:

Exactly. The Dothraki/Targaryen problem resolved itself for Joffrey when the news about Viserys' (and eventually Drogo's) death arrived in KL. He even brags about the death of the Beggar King early on in ACoK.

The attempts were no distraction but a crucial of Varys and Illyrio's plan. They needed to convince Drogo to invade Westeros, knowing fully well that he was not inclined to do so. And for that they had to make it appear as if Dany and Viserys were really in danger from Robert and that his people would actually dare to attack a khaleesi of the Dothraki. Once that was established everything worked the way they wanted it to work. Until Drogo died.

Very nice

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that Varys' life was in real danger from Robert is quite a stretch, actually. Varys claims this when talking to Ned but that's just talk. Robert is a very mild guy who pretty much pardoned anybody. Why should he want to kill Varys?

Besides, Varys moonlights as a jailer in the black cells and knows his way through all the secret tunnels and shit. It's never mentioned in the books, but I'd be shocked if Varys hadn't prepared a way to escape should he ever find himself arrested.

1 hour ago, The Mammoth Vanishes said:

Ive Always thought the plan was to set up 2 Targs to scrap it out (meaning the people of westeros have to pick one of them).

Viserys and dothraki descending on westeros = bad guys.

FAegon and Golden company = good guys.

 

they turn up and fight off Viserys and the dothraki when they are weakened, save the day and everyone loves the Targs again. 

Yes, kind of. That was certainly the plan at one point. I had a longer answer to this, but it's becoming its own thread instead.

ETA:

1 hour ago, Yollo/Hugor Hill/Tyrion said:

No the plan was to have Viserys and his dothraki meet up with the Golden Company and invade. Personally i think Varys was going to have Viserys killed after they started winning because he was as bad as his dad and had a better claim than "Aegon" does

So you think that Varys hoped that Viserys would win, at which point he could replace him with Aegon?

[sifth]

42 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, but is Robert actually pestering Varys with information on the Targaryens or does Varys give Robert that information of his own free will to manipulate him? We don't know. I'd agree that Robert most likely was very interested in new information on the Targaryens.

The idea that Varys' life was in real danger from Robert is quite a stretch, actually. Varys claims this when talking to Ned but that's just talk. Robert is a very mild guy who pretty much pardoned anybody. Why should he want to kill Varys?

Well he most certainly would have killed Varys if he learned he was in fact working with the Targs.

 

That being said, I'm sure Varys must have set up some escape route, if this ever did in fact happen.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, sifth said:

Well he told Robert about the marriage and that Dany was with child. That's pretty reliable info. I know he was using the outcome for his own ends, but still he needed to give Robert something real or he would have killed him. With the Lannisters however his info on Dany becomes much less frequent. He tells them that Viserys was killed and that dragons have been spotted in Essos, but very little else.

Jorah's last report was shortly after they entered Qarth. Before that, I think his opportunity to send word back would have been before Drogo sacked the village of the Lamb Men. 

[sifth]

3 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Jorah's last report was shortly after they entered Qarth. Before that, I think his opportunity to send word back would have been before Drogo sacked the village of the Lamb Men. 

Varys probably has other eyes on Dany. She seems a little too important.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 minute ago, sifth said:

Varys probably has other eyes on Dany. She seems a little too important.

And whose eyes would they be? 

[sifth]

1 minute ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And whose eyes would they be? 

I have no idea, but Varys is a spy master. You honestly think he's just ignoring Dany?

[Lost Melnibonean]

20 minutes ago, sifth said:

I have no idea, but Varys is a spy master. You honestly think he's just ignoring Dany?

Of course not, I a sure he wishes he had a spy in Daenerys's camp. But there is no hint that he does. 

[Arcuda]

Not sure whether Varys is really just a blind Targ supporter, or Blackfyre if you want to throw that wrinkle in -- or if he is just loyal to the realm and wants stability for the 7 kingdoms.  If he wants stability it would make sense why this shift -- because the assassination attempt was before Robert died.  Supporting Dany was after his death when the kingdom was in turmoil.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Besides, Varys moonlights as a jailer in the black cells and knows his way through all the secret tunnels and shit. It's never mentioned in the books, but I'd be shocked if Varys hadn't prepared a way to escape should he ever find himself arrested.

He certainly could escape if he was arrested. But his life would certainly have been in constant danger during the last mad years/months of Aerys' reign. You cannot really predict the actions of a madman, even one you know pretty well. Everytime Varys went to an audience with the king or gave a report during a council session the king could have decided to blame him for stuff, having him executed/burned immediately.

In Robert's case something like that isn't likely to happen nor is it likely that Varys wouldn't have seen such a development coming in time.

1 hour ago, sifth said:

Varys probably has other eyes on Dany. She seems a little too important.

I don't think he had a spy among Dany's Dothraki but now he and Illyrio have Strong Belwas. I think that guy is Illyrio's hidden blade at Dany's throat. If Aegon decides not to ally himself with Daenerys then she might face an assassination attempt from a person nobody suspected to be capable of such a deed until now. That way Belwas would actually have a purpose in this story.

[sifth]

11 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He certainly could escape if he was arrested. But his life would certainly have been in constant danger during the last mad years/months of Aerys' reign. You cannot really predict the actions of a madman, even one you know pretty well. Everytime Varys went to an audience with the king or gave a report during a council session the king could have decided to blame him for stuff, having him executed/burned immediately.

In Robert's case something like that isn't likely to happen nor is it likely that Varys wouldn't have seen such a development coming in time.

I don't think he had a spy among Dany's Dothraki but now he and Illyrio have Strong Belwas. I think that guy is Illyrio's hidden blade at Dany's throat. If Aegon decides not to ally himself with Daenerys then she might face an assassination attempt from a person nobody suspected to be capable of such a deed until now. That way Belwas would actually have a purpose in this story.

That was my thought as well. I could understand why Varys/Illyrio sent Ser. Barry to Dany, but never could understand why Belwas was sent as well. He really hasn't contributed much to the story, outside of being a bodyguard for Dany................and not a particularly smart one.

[Lord Varys]

23 minutes ago, sifth said:

That was my thought as well. I could understand why Varys/Illyrio sent Ser. Barry to Dany, but never could understand why Belwas was sent as well. He really hasn't contributed much to the story, outside of being a bodyguard for Dany................and not a particularly smart one.

And he survived the poison. Why was that? Was George just nice there, or does this mean he'll have a role to play in the future...?

[Lost Melnibonean]

41 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think he had a spy among Dany's Dothraki but now he and Illyrio have Strong Belwas. I think that guy is Illyrio's hidden blade at Dany's throat. If Aegon decides not to ally himself with Daenerys then she might face an assassination attempt from a person nobody suspected to be capable of such a deed until now. That way Belwas would actually have a purpose in this story.

I don't believe it, but it is possible. 

[Maxxine]

I think everyone gives Varys and Illyrio too much credit. So allegedly Aegon was the plan for Varys and Illyrio from the very beginning. But they help Viserys and Dany, two people who could potentially have a stronger than Aegon (even if he is actually Rhaegar's son). The help includes helping them secure an army of Dothraki. If Aegon were truly the plan you kill the people who are in the line of succession before especially Viserys. Maybe you keep Dany around so she marry Aegon. And they wanted the Dothraki to cross the Narrow Sea to create chaos so then Aegon could come in and save the day and be seated on the Iron Throne. That leaves too much to chance. What happens if the Dothraki defeat Aegon and no one can save the day. And on a slight side note of the Varys didn't really want Dany dead scenario and told Jorah so Jorah could save her scenario and then Drogo would want to cross the Narrow Sea scenario also leaves too much to chance for me to give Varys credit for that. Remember that Jorah wasn't there when Dany first starts talking the wineseller. What if he had come too late and Dany drank the poison. What if Drogo didn't care that Dany was almost poisoned. They had no way of predicting what kind of man Drogo was and that he would actually end up falling for Dany. There are probably some more nuances but I think these are the basics. That's just too much credit to really believe Aegon was the plan from jump. At the very least Varys and Illyrio were hitching their wagon to two horses. And if they actually say we were solely Aegon from the very beginning that's a big plot hole there.