Illyrio's 3 heads

[Brad Stark]

Here is a conversation between illyrio and Tyrion, from the first chapter:

Quote

“Are your Seven Kingdoms so different? There is no peace in Westeros, no justice, no faith …
and soon enough, no food. When men are starving and sick of fear, they look for a savior.”
“They may look, but if all they find is Stannis—”
“Not Stannis. Nor Myrcella.” The yellow smile widened. “Another. Stronger than Tommen,
gentler than Stannis, with a better claim than the girl Myrcella. A savior come from across the sea to
bind up the wounds of bleeding Westeros.”
“Fine words.” Tyrion was unimpressed. “Words are wind. Who is this bloody savior?”
“A dragon.” The cheesemonger saw the look on his face at that, and laughed. “A dragon with
three heads.”

I've seen a lot of threads speculating about a prophesy saying "the dragon must have 3 heads" and that 3 characters will be chosen as dragon riders - but this is different.  This is Illyrio talking about a dragon with 3 heads.  Does he mean Griff and Daenerys and someone else?  We know he's helping Griff, and seemed to help Dany in the past, so trying to arrange 3 Targaryens makes sense, but who is the 3rd?

Or is he only talking about Griff, 1 person with a coat of arms that has 3 heads.

[Ckram]

I'm sure you know that Illyrio is being intentionally ambiguous.

But Tristan Rivers gave me the impression that, even though Illyrio's plans changes a lot, he has focused on one different Targaryen each time (ADWD, The Lost Lord).

Therefore, i'd say he thought on one person with a three-headed dragon on the coat of arms.

[Cryler]

The Targaryen sigil is a 3 headed dragon. That always led me to believe that the prophecy is about one Targaryen. Now which one is the question. I just think it would be hilarious after all the threads and theories on this subject GRRM makes it one person. Just a great way of saying sometimes the most obvious solution is the right one.

[Springwatch]

My guess is that Illyrio is thinking his conspiracy has three heads, meaning that Aegon will be guided by Illyrio himself and Varys.

[Ckram]

@Springwatch How great wouldn't that be?

If Varys and Illyrio are in fact Blackfyres, still a three-headed dragon.

[bent branch]

I am of the opinion that the three heads of the dragon that Illyrio is referring to is Dany, Aegon and Tyrion. This doesn't necessarily mean he is right. I am of the opinion that the prophecy led to the Targaryen house sigil, rather than the sigil leading to the prophecy.

[Springwatch]

10 hours ago, Ckram said:

@Springwatch How great wouldn't that be?

If Varys and Illyrio are in fact Blackfyres, still a three-headed dragon.

Yes! This is one mystery I really want the answer to.

9 hours ago, bent branch said:

I am of the opinion that the three heads of the dragon that Illyrio is referring to is Dany, Aegon and Tyrion. This doesn't necessarily mean he is right. I am of the opinion that the prophecy led to the Targaryen house sigil, rather than the sigil leading to the prophecy.

Is there an actual prophecy, though? People seem to like family metaphors - Aegon and his sisters were a three-headed dragon, Rob was the Young Wolf etc.

[bent branch]

56 minutes ago, Springwatch said:

Yes! This is one mystery I really want the answer to.

Is there an actual prophecy, though? People seem to like family metaphors - Aegon and his sisters were a three-headed dragon, Rob was the Young Wolf etc.

Yes, there is an actual prophecy. What do you think Aemon and Rhaegar were talking about?

[Springwatch]

It probably is a prophecy - I only hesitate because the Azhor Ahai legend seems on another level: "... will be born again amidst smoke and salt..." as affirmed by visionary red priests and ancient prophecies from Assai. 

Aemon and Rhaegar are well educated and interested in prophecies, but not prophets, and I can't remember anything like "there is a prophecy that the 3-headed dragon will be reborn" .

[TheMachine]

On 7/16/2016 at 9:23 PM, Brad Stark said:

Here is a conversation between illyrio and Tyrion, from the first chapter:

I've seen a lot of threads speculating about a prophesy saying "the dragon must have 3 heads" and that 3 characters will be chosen as dragon riders - but this is different.  This is Illyrio talking about a dragon with 3 heads.  Does he mean Griff and Daenerys and someone else?  We know he's helping Griff, and seemed to help Dany in the past, so trying to arrange 3 Targaryens makes sense, but who is the 3rd?

Or is he only talking about Griff, 1 person with a coat of arms that has 3 heads.

I am currently re-reading aDWD and just finished this chapter the other day. I believe he is just saying that the Targs will be coming back to Westeros to take back their kingdom. If it is indeed a three headed dragon, I believe he is speaking of Griff, Dany, & Tyrion. If Varys' little birds are as good as we think they are, I am sure he would know if Tyrion was in fact The MAd king's son and not Tywins. This would make exstatic if he was in fact a Targ.

[Brad Stark]

19 hours ago, TheMachine said:

I am currently re-reading aDWD and just finished this chapter the other day. I believe he is just saying that the Targs will be coming back to Westeros to take back their kingdom. If it is indeed a three headed dragon, I believe he is speaking of Griff, Dany, & Tyrion. If Varys' little birds are as good as we think they are, I am sure he would know if Tyrion was in fact The MAd king's son and not Tywins. This would make exstatic if he was in fact a Targ.

Interesting theory, and it doesn't rely on Tyrion actually being the mad king's son.

If Tyrion is just the son of Tywin, but people believe he is the son of Aerys, he has a claim to the throne.

[dornishdragon]

I think he is just refering to Young Griff or to Daenerys, the 3 headed dragon being just the sigil of House Targaryen. 

[bent branch]

On ‎8‎/‎15‎/‎2016 at 8:14 AM, TheMachine said:

I am currently re-reading aDWD and just finished this chapter the other day. I believe he is just saying that the Targs will be coming back to Westeros to take back their kingdom. If it is indeed a three headed dragon, I believe he is speaking of Griff, Dany, & Tyrion. If Varys' little birds are as good as we think they are, I am sure he would know if Tyrion was in fact The MAd king's son and not Tywins. This would make exstatic if he was in fact a Targ.

I agree with you. I also interpret Illyrio's statement in just that way.

[Greywater-Watch]

If I recall correctly, in ADWD someone (I think it was when the "Griffins" had their first conversation with the officers of the "Golden Company") complained that Illyrio's plans changed often and that many things passing had not been intended/foreseen by Illyrio.

I believe, Illyrio/Varys had not foreseen Visery's death e.g. I thus find it overstretched to believe the "three headed dreagon" would be person A+B+C. C is often refered to as Tyrion in the above posts - noone could possibly have foreseen Tyrion on the route to Mereen when plans where made for the return of the Tagaryens, which was well before ADWD, in fact it was already schemed in AGOT.

Therefore I am convinced that in this specific conversation between Illyrio and Tyrion Illyrio just referes to one person (Daenerys) by using the sigil of her house.

[bent branch]

On ‎10‎/‎5‎/‎2016 at 1:24 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

If I recall correctly, in ADWD someone (I think it was when the "Griffins" had their first conversation with the officers of the "Golden Company") complained that Illyrio's plans changed often and that many things passing had not been intended/foreseen by Illyrio.

I believe, Illyrio/Varys had not foreseen Visery's death e.g. I thus find it overstretched to believe the "three headed dreagon" would be person A+B+C. C is often refered to as Tyrion in the above posts - noone could possibly have foreseen Tyrion on the route to Mereen when plans where made for the return of the Tagaryens, which was well before ADWD, in fact it was already schemed in AGOT.

Therefore I am convinced that in this specific conversation between Illyrio and Tyrion Illyrio just referes to one person (Daenerys) by using the sigil of her house.

I think the point of the three heads in regards to Varys and Illyrio's plans is that they had Viserys, Dany and Aegon. This gave them three heads of the dragon or three Targaryens. I think they are trying to help the prophecy along. We know that Illyrio cried when Viserys died.

[Tini]

On ‎07‎.‎10‎.‎2016 at 3:39 AM, bent branch said:

I think the point of the three heads in regards to Varys and Illyrio's plans is that they had Viserys, Dany and Aegon. This gave them three heads of the dragon or three Targaryens. I think they are trying to help the prophecy along. We know that Illyrio cried when Viserys died.

Illyrio stated that they didn't think Dany would live long. They didn't expect her to last long among the Dothraki. They expected her death, and soon.

Dany only became a factor in their plans after she hatched dragons. I think that was something Varys and Illyrio didn't foresee. Illyrio and Varys only needed one Targaryen for their plans. The other two were backup in case something happened to number 1. When Aegon survived childhood, the backups lost their importance. Illyrio was sad because he knew Viserys. But not sad enough, apparently, to keep Viserys and Daenerys from harm.

And then there is Barristan Selmy reminding Dany that the dragon has three heads when she turns down Quentyn's proposed marriage, plainly suggesting that she consider taking two husbands instead of one. If he considers Dany's husbands to be heads of the dragon, Varys and Illyrio might think along similar lines regarding Aegon. 

[bent branch]

16 hours ago, Tini said:

Illyrio stated that they didn't think Dany would live long. They didn't expect her to last long among the Dothraki. They expected her death, and soon.

Dany only became a factor in their plans after she hatched dragons. I think that was something Varys and Illyrio didn't foresee. Illyrio and Varys only needed one Targaryen for their plans. The other two were backup in case something happened to number 1. When Aegon survived childhood, the backups lost their importance. Illyrio was sad because he knew Viserys. But not sad enough, apparently, to keep Viserys and Daenerys from harm.

And then there is Barristan Selmy reminding Dany that the dragon has three heads when she turns down Quentyn's proposed marriage, plainly suggesting that she consider taking two husbands instead of one. If he considers Dany's husbands to be heads of the dragon, Varys and Illyrio might think along similar lines regarding Aegon. 

I disagree. What you are not acknowledging is that thinking someone may die in attempting something is not the same as wanting that person to die. There is not one scintilla of evidence that Illyrio and Varys wanted either Viserys or Dany to die and numerous points of evidence that they wanted them to live. As has been pointed out many times, Illyrio could have killed Viserys and Dany while they were in his mansion and NO ONE would have said boo about it. No one who argues that Dany and Viserys were sent to the Dothraki to die have ever given a good argument as to why they weren't just killed in Illyrio's mansion.

In American Football there is evidence that 30% of professional players will end up with brain damage of a type that will send them into early severe dementia. Despite this, many American parents allow their children to play football. Does that mean their parents say, "I want my child to get early severe dementia!"? No, what it means is that they would like to give their child the chance at the benefits that could come to them if they turn out to be talented at football. If you can't see that Illyrio sent Dany to the Dothraki despite the risks instead of because of the risks than we really don't have any point of commonality upon which to build a discussion.

[Tini]

 

On ‎13‎.‎10‎.‎2016 at 5:05 AM, bent branch said:

I disagree. What you are not acknowledging is that thinking someone may die in attempting something is not the same as wanting that person to die. There is not one scintilla of evidence that Illyrio and Varys wanted either Viserys or Dany to die and numerous points of evidence that they wanted them to live. As has been pointed out many times, Illyrio could have killed Viserys and Dany while they were in his mansion and NO ONE would have said boo about it. No one who argues that Dany and Viserys were sent to the Dothraki to die have ever given a good argument as to why they weren't just killed in Illyrio's mansion.

In American Football there is evidence that 30% of professional players will end up with brain damage of a type that will send them into early severe dementia. Despite this, many American parents allow their children to play football. Does that mean their parents say, "I want my child to get early severe dementia!"? No, what it means is that they would like to give their child the chance at the benefits that could come to them if they turn out to be talented at football. If you can't see that Illyrio sent Dany to the Dothraki despite the risks instead of because of the risks than we really don't have any point of commonality upon which to build a discussion.

Compare their plans for Viserys and Dany with those they hatched for Aegon. If you cannot see the difference we probably really have no points of communality.

Parents don't ignore their children for years, while those children live in the streets, do they? If Varys and Illyrio felt like parents towards Viserys and Dany, they would've taken them in when their guardian (Ser Willem?) died. They didn't.

They only started taking an interest when Dany grew old enough to have children. Until that time, Dany and Viserys most likely weren't part of their plans at all. Varys and Illyrio could've killed those two during that time as well, and they didn't - they didn't have any reason to wish them ill, and no reason to help them. No heads of the Dragon, their dragon, they. Not at the time.

Illyrio's attachment formed in the time Dany spent in his house - but at that time she was already part of their plan to marry her off. He knew what the Dothraki were like, expected Dany to live a short, harsh, and unhappy life there. He pitied her for her likely fate - but not enough to change the plans.

Because it would give them something they needed. Viserys thought they were giving him an army. I think they were just making sure that Dany would not give him children.

I assume that Illyrio and Varys were just as unaware as Dany and Viserys about that Dornish marriage pact. If they were aware, they were also aware that Doran had reconsidered. Dany was Viserys only hope of making a suitable match. A match whose noble-born offspring would carry on their parents' claims to the Iron Throne - and therefore a danger to their plans for Aegon and his offspring.

Illyrio made sure that Viserys did not touch Dany while she was in his house. I think he did that because he liked Dany, that he was not only protecting his investments. I believe he was honestly delighted to discover that Dany thrived among the Dothraki.

Drogo was the ideal suitor. Capable of convincing Viserys that he would be able to help him win back the Iron Throne, so that Viserys would approve the marriage. Drogo's children would be Dothraki, and the Westerosi would never accept a Dothraki savage on the Iron Throne - which would eliminate Dany's children as contenders for the Iron Throne.

And where does that leave Viserys?

Trailing along with a Dothraki horde in Essos, without the means to transfer them to Westeros. Without a strategy or advisors to help him devise a strategy on how to use them. Always assuming that Drogo would, at some point, keep his word and provide him with warriors. And without the means to marry a noble acceptable to Westerosi society, to carry on his line. No, they didn't plan for his death among the Dothraki. His life no longer mattered, his death only a question of time.

Their plans for Aegon are totally different. Aegon has been trained from early on to take and hold the Iron Throne by Jon Connington. A man who had been King's Hand, if I remember correctly, and who had been chosen for this Job by Varys himself. It would be hard to find someone better suited for the job. And while Aegon might have suffered accidents while playing football, he was always surrounded by people looking out for him. No Dothraki for Aegon - for Aegon, the Golden Horde. And the means to transfer these mercenaries with a Westerosi background to where he needs them. All this while spreading the word among Westerosi nobles that the Targaryen heir has returned.

Viserys is dead, and Dany is the Dragon Queen. That is the reason why Dany now once again has a place in most royal marriage plots - Doran's, Euron's, Connington's. And why Dany is now part of Illyrio's plans. Any contender for the Iron Throne will have to deal with Dany. There would be no way past her - if she went to Westeros as expected.

ETA: Illyrio is trying to contact Dany. This is still in keeping with Varys' plans. I wonder if the liking he feels for Dany, and which Dany returns, might lead to a split between Varys and Illyrio. Maybe we'll find out that way the full extent of Varys' plans.

 

 

[girlfrommonday]

@Tini I agree with your summary, but I still have problem with this plan. Why not having Viserys and Dany as assets? Why they don't plan something along the lines "Aegon for the Iron Throne, Viserys will be spending time at Dragonstone, and our Targaryen princess can be valuable bride for some Lord (Highgarden, Riverlands?)". Hand of the aunt of the king could tempt someone with an army in Westeros. And Viserys would be not a threat for Iron Throne, everybody would have found out, that he was crazy like a Mad King. But what if Aegon will be childless? Viserys as a backup for Targaryen bloodline should be protected (I'm thinking about his potential children). Basically, the more Targaryens the merrier.

[Tini]

@girlfrommonday Why they didn't make such a plan, I don't know. I just see that they didn't make such a plan. (Just my opinion, of course. An opinion that shifted quite a bit when Jon Connington and Aegon entered the picture.)

The Viserys from the books was quite uncontrollable, given to rages. His disposition already showed back when Aerys was murdered, and Rhaella and he fled King's Landing. You call him crazy. I think that's the reason why he had no place in Varys' plans for Westeros. Varys wants sane rulers. Targaryen for legitimacy, but not displaying a streak of the Targaryen madness. Hence up they came with plan Aegon.

Daenerys didn't figure into that plan, she wasn't yet born. And, being female, handicapped.