Young Griff theory

[No One of Importance]

Not that I necessarily believe these, but to play devil's advocate:

Aegon was still a baby when Gregor did or didn't smash his head in.  The rest of his family was dead or gone.  There was really no need for any plotters/baby-swappers to count on the head being smashed in because (not to sound incredibly cold-hearted) one baby pretty much looks like another, especially to people who wouldn't have been around him very often and/or are inclined to believe whatever official story comes from the people who just sacked the city and took over the country.

As for why Varys and Illyrio would keep him separate from Viserys and Dany - don't put all your eggs in one basket.

 

[Buried Treasure]

For myself, and probably many other readers, the question was never 'why theorise that Aegon is fake' but 'what proves this claimant to a throne is genuine'? What proves that baby Aegon survived the Sack? Nada. You have to accept a story that comes from Varys, a player whose motives are entirely unknown.

 

I knew that pretenders false claimants to wealth and power have appeared in real life, and I know that GRRM is even more versed in history then I am - YG immediately reminded me of the Princes in the Tower and Perkin Walbeck / Lambert Simnel.  A claimant to a throne died in circumstances that can be doubted (the smashed in head) so there can only be one or no genuine Aegon (whether or not the slain baby was Aegon) but there theoretically could be a number of fake Aegons; if Littlfinger had become a player 15 years earlier I suspect he might have considered faking an Aegon too.

[White Ravens]

I've always questioned Aegon's identity because of the circumstances of the baby swap.  I just can't believe in team Varys having the wherewithal during the sack of Kings Landing to anticipate the murder of Elia Martell and baby Aegon and pull a baby switcheroo.   It would be much easier after the murders happened to find a Targ looking baby and secretly raise it as Aegon but it just doesn't resonate as a true event for me  that the baby was swapped during the sack.

[Duncan_The_Short]

I have no problem with Varys foreseeing that a baby swap might be necessary.  My problem comes from the availability of a sufficiently Targ looking baby with whom the swap can be made.  As has been pointed out before, Gregor's smashing of the head isn't so much surprising as it is impossible to really anticipate.  So for the swap to be true either the baby they swapped did in fact carry Targ features, and it was just Varys bad luck that all the hard work in finding a suitable switch was rendered useless by the Mountain's reckless violence, or Gregor Clegane intentionally smashed the head to cover up that it wasn't really Aegon, which would mean he either betrayed Tywin or Tywin was in on it.

[Light a wight tonight]

For Varys to set up the swap he'd have had to anticipate Maester Pycelle opening the gates to Tywin, not just then but far in advance. Seems very unlikely to me. If Pycelle hadn't opened the gates Ned would have arrived and the whole sack of King's Landing and taking of the Red Keep would have happened very differently. It's not unlikely that Robert would have had Rhaegar's heirs killed anyhow, but it would have been witnessed and there would be no doubt that they were dead.

[Pain killer Jane]

In the World of Ice and Fire, there is a story about the Moon of the Three Kings in Kingslanding. Three people claimed to be king. One of those kings was Gaemon Palehair who was claimed to be the bastard son of Aegon II by his mother. His mother was a whore who had a Dornish paramour as that helped prop him up as king. He actually ended up being the son of a Lysene oarsmen.

Another king was Trystane Truefyre (note both his first name and his surname) who was claimed by the Knight that he squired for, was the bastard of Viserys I and was crowned by that same knight as king of the seven kingdoms.

These stories reeks as a parallel for Aegon. I didn't see anyone mention that one of the murmur's plays had a black dragon turning into a red dragon. Plus I do not really remember who but someone said a black or a red a dragon is a dragon. To me this illustrates that Aegon is from both branches of the Targaryen family but not specifically from Rheagar's line. 

Here is also a something to consider:

Quote

"Besides if a girl can't fight, why should she have a coat of arms?" Jon shrugged. "Girls get the arms but not the swords. Bastards get the swords but not the arms. I did not make the rules, little sister." Arya, GoT

  This is an extremely important theme. It has ramifications for a lot of people in the books especially for the Blackfyres'. Blackfyre was seen as the sword of kings but a king gave it to his bastard son. One reason why Blackfyre's consider themselves kings is because of that sword. And then you have to remember that Aegon the conqueror was not a king because of blood. He was made king by right of conquest. 
 

For me I support the Brightfyre theory in terms of Aegon VI. Because first you have, the fact that Lys employs careful breeding in their bed slaves and the nobles do as well. You have Saera Targaryen (Daughter of Jaehaerys I Targaryen) crossing the narrow sea and probably becoming a whore in Lys first and then a madam in Volantis (The Black Pearl parallel- another one of Aegon IV's bastards). Then Aerion Brightflame spent a lot of time in Lys and possibly fathered children there. Second The Blackfyre pretenders only died out in the male line, the female line is still very much alive (and Targaryens practice selective breeding so why wouldn't the Blackfyres also practice the same thing). Third you have the Rogare family of Lys returning the lost prince Viserys (with his Rogare wife) back to Westeros and reaping massive rewards (Illaryio).

Plus he is too perfect. He is a walking fairy tale and GRRM constantly throughout the books makes a note that fairy tales are not to be trusted. The evidence in that is in Sansa's journey. 

[spauldo17]

 

11 hours ago, Light a wight tonight said:

For Varys to set up the swap he'd have had to anticipate Maester Pycelle opening the gates to Tywin, not just then but far in advance. Seems very unlikely to me. If Pycelle hadn't opened the gates Ned would have arrived and the whole sack of King's Landing and taking of the Red Keep would have happened very differently. It's not unlikely that Robert would have had Rhaegar's heirs killed anyhow, but it would have been witnessed and there would be no doubt that they were dead.

A lot of people are saying that one of the main points of contention is that those involved would not have had the foresight to know that the babies would be killed.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that have been a pretty common practice when a conquering king comes in?  Kill all children of the prior ruling family to eliminate all other claims to the throne?

I agree that there would have been no way to know that the head would be smashed, but a certain part of that I just attribute to it being a book and sometimes things in books are written because they are trying to make a good story

[Lost Melnibonean]

28 minutes ago, spauldo17 said:

 

A lot of people are saying that one of the main points of contention is that those involved would not have had the foresight to know that the babies would be killed.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that have been a pretty common practice when a conquering king comes in?  Kill all children of the prior ruling family to eliminate all other claims to the throne?

I agree that there would have been no way to know that the head would be smashed, but a certain part of that I just attribute to it being a book and sometimes things in books are written because they are trying to make a good story

They might not have even intended it to be a semi permanent arrangement, but merely a slick plan to whisk the prince to safety. But if that's the case, why leave the girl behind? 

[spauldo17]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

They might not have even intended it to be a semi permanent arrangement, but merely a slick plan to whisk the prince to safety. But if that's the case, why leave the girl behind? 

Maybe because in actuality the girl wouldn't matter much?  As long as they had a male heir they were in good shape?  Not sure

[Ashes Of Westeros]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

They might not have even intended it to be a semi permanent arrangement, but merely a slick plan to whisk the prince to safety. But if that's the case, why leave the girl behind? 

The girl was older and many people could recognize her even if she would be brutally injured. Besides that she is not a heir, so if othey had to choose between a boy who is heir and a girl, they chose the boy.

The thing is there is no way to prove that fAegon is real Rhaegor's son. But he could be Trag as well. F.e. we know that maester Aemon had two sisters Rhae and Daella, who had children too. But their faith is unknown. I think Varys could easily track their descendants.

[Ygrain]

On 19. 7. 2016 at 4:27 PM, spauldo17 said:

I know that this "young griff is a fake targaryen" theory is a really popular one, but can anyone tell me what exactly it is from the books that provided this theory with its inception?  I know about the "mummer's dragon" prophesy but that could have meant anything, prophesies are inherently vague and difficult to decipher.

Not "anything". A cloth dragon on poles among cheering crowd. A cloth dragon is not a real one.

 

On 19. 7. 2016 at 4:27 PM, spauldo17 said:

I read the books and it didn't seem to hint in any way that he was a fake.  It even threw in oft used literary devices to reaffirm his veracity such as tyrion thinking to himself something along the lines of "he may very well be targaryen after all" after a game. 

We were provided with a sufficient back story of how he survived all this time, we were told his eyes were of the right color (and only appeared off due to his dyed hair)

The abckstory is far from sufficient because there are zero bits of information from nonrelated PoVs to corroborate. And no, his eyes are not the right colour, Rhaegar's were a different shade. - Doesn't mean a thing, even the real Aegon could have lighter eyes. But the eye colour doesn't really point one way or the other, half the Lys have purple eyes.

 

On 19. 7. 2016 at 4:27 PM, spauldo17 said:

He has many people who whole-heartedly believe in him, including knights from westeros. 

Can anyone point to anything specific in the books that would imply that he is a fake?

Personally I think it's a much more interesting story if he is, in fact, a targaryen

The problem is that there is really nothing to prove that he is genuine.

20 hours ago, No One of Importance said:

Not that I necessarily believe these, but to play devil's advocate:

Aegon was still a baby when Gregor did or didn't smash his head in.  The rest of his family was dead or gone.  There was really no need for any plotters/baby-swappers to count on the head being smashed in because (not to sound incredibly cold-hearted) one baby pretty much looks like another, especially to people who wouldn't have been around him very often and/or are inclined to believe whatever official story comes from the people who just sacked the city and took over the country.

But there was actually no need for a swap as KL was supposed to burn to the ground. The moment Aerys issued the order, just go grab Aegon and run... Varys couldn't have known that Jaime would do what he did.

[Chebyshov]

If you're looking for solid "evidence" one way or another, there isn't. There's no "proof." But given that this isn't a murder mystery, it's a work of literature, you kind of have to think about like, themes and junk. Could the cloth dragon just be a vision that means nothing? Sure. Could the black dragon sign that has one of its heads wash up red be more about the symbolism of the Quiet Isle than the Blackfyres? Maybe. With Martin, even his publisher noticed this reveal style of small tiny hints that eventually grow, until what's coming has been so thoroughly foreshadowed you want to smack yourself (the Red Wedding for instance).

If this character is meant to truly be Rhaegar's son, there's a lot of odd variables you have to account for. It's not an impossibility, but it would be an odd way of Martin seeding this story.

Not that other theories are flawless, mind you. The Blackfyre theory has the issue of "stickyness," if you will. If Varys is a Blackfyre (kind of a crucial part of that), is his end goal an internal, moral victory, or will this ever be revealed? I don't see how the latter could come to pass in the present situation, but it's not to say the context can't change. But thematically it's kind of a perfect "just so" story.

If fAegon is just some rando, there's the sort of nice application of Varys and Illyrio's con, but on a larger scale.

You can go through all the possibilities, but I think what is made abundantly clear is that the ambiguity surrounding fAegon at this point, is very much the point. How will Dany react to him with her warnings of the mummer's dragon competing with her sadness at being the "last Targaryen." Then there's

Spoiler

Arianne's sample chapters, where neither she nor Daemon can seem to get through a conversation without one of them mentioning (or her thinking) about the uncertainty of his identity. Will she sees what she wants to see in her desire to prove herself to her father? Her skepticism is not nothing...

Honestly, nothing's certain, and there's potential for all the options. What it comes down to right now, has nothing to do with "evidence," but what you personally find to be the most compelling.

[No One of Importance]

10 minutes ago, Chebyshov said:

 

If fAegon is just some rando, there's the sort of nice application of Varys and Illyrio's con, but on a larger scale.

 

I never really considered this, but now that I am... I really like this idea.  What if Varys and Illyrio's whole point is to show that blood means nothing?  That if you raise a child to believe he is born to rule, and surround him with people who also believe that (power resides where people believe it resides), then it doesn't matter who his family is?  That puts a new shine to his final speech with Kevan. It also seems very fitting for Varys' background.  What if it's Varys who actually wants to break the wheel by showing that the wheel was a con in the first place?

[Light a wight tonight]

3 hours ago, spauldo17 said:

 

A lot of people are saying that one of the main points of contention is that those involved would not have had the foresight to know that the babies would be killed.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't that have been a pretty common practice when a conquering king comes in?  Kill all children of the prior ruling family to eliminate all other claims to the throne?

I agree that there would have been no way to know that the head would be smashed, but a certain part of that I just attribute to it being a book and sometimes things in books are written because they are trying to make a good story

I don't think the situation had come up in Westeros. Aegon the Conqueror left the various Houses in place, with a few exceptions and until Robert's Rebellion there were no challenges to the Targs from outside the family.

 

[Chebyshov]

1 hour ago, No One of Importance said:

I never really considered this, but now that I am... I really like this idea.  What if Varys and Illyrio's whole point is to show that blood means nothing?  That if you raise a child to believe he is born to rule, and surround him with people who also believe that (power resides where people believe it resides), then it doesn't matter who his family is?  That puts a new shine to his final speech with Kevan. It also seems very fitting for Varys' background.  What if it's Varys who actually wants to break the wheel by showing that the wheel was a con in the first place?

I'm not sold on this by any means (I'd say I lean slightly towards the Blackfyre theory, but it's not 100% enthusiastically done), but back when I was considering this version, I kind of viewed it like this:

In Myr he was a prince of thieves, until a rival thief informed on him. In Pentos his accent marked him, and once he was known for a eunuch he was despised and beaten. Why he chose me to protect him I may never know, but we came to an arrangement. Varys spied on lesser thieves (destabilizing Aerys's reign/spying on Robert and the rebels) and took their takings (Aegon). I offered my help to their victims (Dany & Viserys), promising to recover their valuables (Targ Dynasty) for a fee (power/influence, especially through Aegon). Soon every man who had suffered a loss knew to come to me, whilst city’s footpads and cutpurses sought out Varys … half to slit his throat, the other half to sell him what they’d stolen. We both grew rich, and richer still when Varys trained his mice.

It's compelling in its own way, no?

But then there's certain other things not accounted for, like the marked way people talk about the "male line of the Blackfyres" being done, rather than just the House, or the fact that Varys's balls were clearly very important to that dude for some reason...

[No One of Importance]

13 minutes ago, Chebyshov said:

 

But then there's certain other things not accounted for, like the marked way people talk about the "male line of the Blackfyres" being done, rather than just the House, or the fact that Varys's balls were clearly very important to that dude for some reason...

Hmm.  I'm not sure that the two are mutually exclusive.  I mean, wasn't the root of the initial Blackfyre rebellion that the crown should pass to the one more worthy of it, regardless of his blood?  Certainly it was a more limited case (bastard versus trueborn), but could the concept have expanded in the intervening years?  Could the Blackfyre connection just be a way to open the door to more substantial revolution?  I'm seriously just typing off the top of my head here - more an idea that you kicked off than a theory I hold to.

[jrod]

1 hour ago, Chebyshov said:

If you're looking for solid "evidence" one way or another, there isn't. There's no "proof." But given that this isn't a murder mystery, it's a work of literature, you kind of have to think about like, themes and junk. Could the cloth dragon just be a vision that means nothing? Sure. Could the black dragon sign that has one of its heads wash up red be more about the symbolism of the Quiet Isle than the Blackfyres? Maybe. With Martin, even his publisher noticed this reveal style of small tiny hints that eventually grow, until what's coming has been so thoroughly foreshadowed you want to smack yourself (the Red Wedding for instance).

If this character is meant to truly be Rhaegar's son, there's a lot of odd variables you have to account for. It's not an impossibility, but it would be an odd way of Martin seeding this story.

Not that other theories are flawless, mind you. The Blackfyre theory has the issue of "stickyness," if you will. If Varys is a Blackfyre (kind of a crucial part of that), is his end goal an internal, moral victory, or will this ever be revealed? I don't see how the latter could come to pass in the present situation, but it's not to say the context can't change. But thematically it's kind of a perfect "just so" story.

If fAegon is just some rando, there's the sort of nice application of Varys and Illyrio's con, but on a larger scale.

You can go through all the possibilities, but I think what is made abundantly clear is that the ambiguity surrounding fAegon at this point, is very much the point. How will Dany react to him with her warnings of the mummer's dragon competing with her sadness at being the "last Targaryen." Then there's

  Hide contents

Arianne's sample chapters, where neither she nor Daemon can seem to get through a conversation without one of them mentioning (or her thinking) about the uncertainty of his identity. Will she sees what she wants to see in her desire to prove herself to her father? Her skepticism is not nothing...

Honestly, nothing's certain, and there's potential for all the options. What it comes down to right now, has nothing to do with "evidence," but what you personally find to be the most compelling.

I pretty much agree with your first part.  There isn't anything really definitive either way.  

 

Could Varys knowing the city would be taken in one form or another swapped the baby with another fair haired baby, absolutely.  Then either Ellia say it was her baby if they were captured, and later reveal the truth when her son was safely away.  Or if they were all killed, but not mutilated, who would have truly known what the baby Aegon looked like?  Those loyal to his family, who would have attested to it being the right fair haired baby.  Big wild card though would be Jaime and if spent much time around the baby in his duties or not.

I also can see the fAegon points as well.  Some prophecies and small hints that lead you to believe he is either a Blackfyre or a complete pretender that Varys is using for his own purposes/power grab somehow.

Is Aegon the mummer's dragon?  If he is, is he the mummer's dragon because he is a fake dragon (not a Targ).  Or is he the mummer's dragon as in he the dragon (Targ) or the mummer (Varys).

While obviously people have their own opinions based off of what is written and trying to work out the clues given by GRMM, I really don't see how people can be certain one way or the other.  I think either rAegon or fAegon can have some very interesting story arcs built off it.

[Drekinn]

At the end of the day Blackfyres still have Targaryen blood. Starting a new house doesn't change your blood.

Anyway, even before researching about the Blackfyre theory Young Griff reminded me of Henry VII. Descendant of a royal bloodline, be it Targaryen or Blackfyre, raised in exile and landing on Westeros with an armed force to reclaim his supposed ancestral throne.

[Lost Melnibonean]

4 hours ago, Drekinn said:

At the end of the day Blackfyres still have Targaryen blood. Starting a new house doesn't change your blood.

Anyway, even before researching about the Blackfyre theory Young Griff reminded me of Henry VII. Descendant of a royal bloodline, be it Targaryen or Blackfyre, raised in exile and landing on Westeros with an armed force to reclaim his supposed ancestral throne.

Thus, black or red a dragon is still a dragon.

[erra]

On 7/19/2016 at 11:00 AM, KingofIce said:

If Griff really is a Targ and works for/with Illyrio, why did he not make his self known to Dany and her now dead brother? Logic would be that more Targs the stronger the chance for retaking Westeros.

It's the idea of not keeping all your eggs in one basket.

When Dany and Viserys were younger, they were pretty vulnerable .. always running, just one step ahead of the knives, with death around the corner. Lots of people knew about them. But nobody knew about young Aegon. 

When Illyrio sends Tyrion off with young Griff, their goal is to head for Dany. Now that she has her army, the time is right to come out and join her. It's only Tyrion who convinces Aegon it'd be better for her to come to him as a conquerer, rather than him go as a beggar to her.

We also don't know how long Aegon has known about his aunt, let alone about Illyrio's involvement with her journey to where she is now.