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How would the Watch fare with no RR or GR?


DominusNovus

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What this boils down to, before I get into the details, is whether the Watch does better during prolonged peace, or after major internal wars.  I would think that prolonged peace hurts Watch recruitment, since it generally leads to increased prosperity and less incentive to sign your life away to living on an artificial glacier.  Whereas war promoted instability, which presents the Wall as more attractive in comparison.  Further, the losers in a war can provide a fertile recruiting base.

So, if we were to consider what the Watch might look like without two recent rebellions in 15 years, at the start of the books, how might they be doing?  I'm inclined to think that they might have fewer men, which might lead them to be more cautious in their ranging activities.  This might alter their awareness of goings on beyond the Wall.  It might also make the Wildlings more bold.

Of course, this is one of those questions that could easily turn into a 'Rabbit Hole' conversation, as there would be so many knock-on effects of no Robert's Rebellion, in regards to the Wall.  But, if we stick to the general parameters, I think we can avoid falling into that trap.

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Supposedly if there were a larger influx of notable people being sent to the wall then perhaps more of the members of the nobility might be more keen to send donation to the watch if they have kin their. On the other hand, if the continent is not at war then the kingdom might be willing to send more resources their if the if they face a threat.

The real truth of the matter is that one can profit from a war, but the peace brings more certainty. No war and the NW can go on its way to surviving with the aid of the North, where war invites more political uncertainty if a political faction finds itself tangles itself with the NW cause. TWoT5K saw the NW ignored by the Lannister coalition, and Tywin was okay with their eventual downfall. They might have been able to get more donations of soldiers, but not in this particular war.

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You may be right.  It seems at least some of their officers were men on the wrong side of the rebellion, e.g. Alliser Thorne, Jaremy Rykker, possibly Smallwood and Bowen Marsh.

The rest of the officers are volunteers; Jeor, Denys Mallister, Benjen, Jon Snow, or men who have seemed to prosper on the Wall; Iron Emmett, Qhorin, Cotter Pyke.

There is just so many characters that Martin has not explained how/why they came to the Wall.  I find that rather interesting.

It seems obvious to me they get the most support from the Stark's, so long as the north is relatively okay during times of war, then they quite possibly could benefit from said war.

There best hope seems to be noble volunteers, but they are few and far between.  Otherwise if you are conscripting men (criminals) you'd probably get ten Chett's for every one Iron Emmett.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, DominusNovus said:

What this boils down to, before I get into the details, is whether the Watch does better during prolonged peace, or after major internal wars.  

Neither. Peace is better than a major war. But constant low level war is best for the Watch.

Back when their was 7 kingdoms there were 7 kings who could send their political enemies to the wall, as well as hostages who can't pay their ransom and captured lowborn enemy soldiers. This way a King or Lord wouldn't have to butcher surrendered enemies but also wouldn't have to fight them again.

Peace means no prisoners of war, but at least starving northerners and second or third sons might still join.

But majors civil wars are a disaster for the Watch. Large swathes of commonfolk die, so there's no population pressure at home. One side usually forgives the rival lords or executes them, so less are sent to the watch. Then many nobles die. So second sons who might join the watch might die, inherit or gain lands as a result of the conflict.

Aside from those few Tywin sent to the Wall, it seems no one in RR was sent there. None I can name in the Greyjoy Rebellion. I think if neither had happened the watch would have been better off from surplus second and thirds sons.

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I think OP's intuition that militaries benefit from war is partly correct, but the Night's Watch would only benefit from an external enemy attacking from the North, such as WW or wildlings. Internal war like Robert's Rebellion and wars from enemies on southern borders would not have helped NW much.

It's true that militaries thrive on war, and the Night's Watch is basically a military institution specifically tasked with border protection, so war may decimate their figures but it also helps remind people of their function. If the NW is suddenly an important bulwark against some advancing enemy kings are more likely to send financial support, supplies, weapons and men, etc. People might also join up for a variety of reasons -- because your land is close by and you want to help defend it, for example, or for loyalty/patriotic reasons.

But internal war like RR is really out of the scope of the NW's responsibilities. It would not play up their usefulness to anyone in the realm (remember the NW is sworn not to take part in domestic politics). If an enemy should attack from the North, of course, the NW would suddenly look very useful. 

Otherwise I don't see NW benefiting much from RR or other wars. As others point out, they might get more exiles and refugees to join their ranks, but then in peacetime they might get younger sons. So they wouldn't receive a big boost until a Northern, external threat happens. 

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23 hours ago, PrinceHenryris said:

I'm not really sure about the smallfolk.

The causalities of war on the Smallfolk probably isn't big enough to effect recruitment. The North has million of peasants. Some of which might join up if food gets too scare in Winter. Most lowborn in the south probably don't join the NW unless there is a recruiter or they committed a crime. However peace makes it easier for men like Yoren to recruit safely and travel to the wall. Also during a war, a lord is probably more likely to execute a criminal rather than bother to send them to the Wall.

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