What's the current military strength of all the factions at end of ADWD?

[Marcus corvinus]

Note: I'm talking about current military strengths of the various factions, not the nominal strength. How much men, ships and equipment they have at the end of ADWD and how much can we can see them putting to use in the future.

1. Iron islands: 

a. King Euron: Victarion took the iron fleet to mereen which had most of the ironmen's elite ships and probably the best raiders/fighters. So euron is left with mostly longships. 

Margaery claims that the ironmen brought with them a 1000 ships in the invasion of the shield islands. Rodrik the Reader confirms this when he expreses his doubt about euron taking the iron fleet around dorne. Victarion took 100 of the Iron fleet. Asha also took some men and ships with her to deepwood motte. He probably left the newly minted lords of the shield islands with some ships and men to garrison the castles.

And counting for losses, my guess is euron's total current force south of the shield islands is about 850 ships. As most of the galleys left with victarion, Euron is left with only longships. And in addition to longships, there are also cogs, fishing boats and other smaller boats pressed into service.

We can estimate that he has about 60,000-65,000 men with him. Obviously the bulk of these are oarsmen and other technical and support personnel. If we assume that 25% of them are fighters, we can assume that euron has about 15,000-17,000 warriors/infantrymen with him. It would make sense, as the iron islands have the smallest population and agricultural base of all the kingdoms and being a naval people, they should have the smallest army. Very little to none would be cavalrymen.

b. Lord Captain Vicatrion: Victarion is currently at slaver's bay has about 44 war galleys, 17 captured ships. As galleys are the premier naval ship of the era, they would require more oarsmen and would be able to house more infantry. The wiki states that he has about 4400 reavers(infantry) with him. Has no cavalry.

c. Asha Greyjoy: She has 9 stout men.

 

2.  The North: 

a. House Bolton: At winterfell Lord Bolton has a total of 7,750+ men. Though some are of uncertain loyalty.

House Bolton by itself probably has about 3000-3500 men; 2500-2800 of the 3500 men at the Red wedding plus, Ramsay's 600 men. About 600-800 of these men are cavalry.

The Arnolf Karstarks were going to betray Stannis but they have been neutralized. 

Further there are about 1000 frey soldiers. Further 1000 red wedding karstarks and whoresbane Umbers are with Roose. Though the umbers are of uncertain loyalty.

There are 300 manderly's of uncertain loyalty. And there are unknown numbers of men from house ryswell, dustin, cerwyn and tallhart.

b. King Stannis: King Stannis has about 1300-1400 southern knights, 2000 mountain men, 500 umber men and about 1200 soldiers from various stark loyalists, giving a total of about 5000 men. Nearly all his forces are infantry as he lost almost all his horses en route to winterfell. He has perhaps 50 cavalry.

c. Lord commander Jon snow: Has about 500-600 men in the nights watch. Possibly 100-150 cavalry. And he has a further of nearly 1000-2000 wildling warriors. 

d. Lord Manderly: He has lost about 1500 men, 200 of them horses but still claims he commands more heavy horse than any other northern lord.

He has about 300 mounted knights with him at winterfell. Its safe to assume that he has a total of about 800-1000 heavy horse left as he still has more heavy horse than any other northern lord. And as he lost 1300 foot soldiers. He might still have another 3000 footmen left.

And in addition to that he has been constructing a fleet.

 

3. The Vale:

The vale is still united under house arryn and is so far untouched by war. And as they have already reaped their harvest, they can afford to spare men and furthermore the population of the vale is concentrated around small fertile region. So we can assume that in the case of war the vale can muster its full force which could be about 35,000-40,000 men with probably 8,000-10,000 cavalry.

 

4. The Lannisters:

a. House Baratheon of King's Landing: The iron throne directly commands about 3500 gold cloaks. Its entire naval strength has deserted with aurane waters. Several houses from the crownlands are sworn directly to the iron throne. Though their loyalty is shaky as was revealed when they came up with nearly no men at the battle of blackwater bay. 

How much men they field is also a matter of contention as the crownlands are small but rich and overpopulated.

b. House lannister: Tywin raised 35,000 men at the start of the war. Jaime's army of 15000 was destroyed at the whispering wood and further 10,000 men were crushed at oxcross. 4000 men from jaime's army and a few thousand from stafford's army survived and regrouped.

In the end tywin's 20,000-man army endured the war albeit some losses. Cersei lost nearly a 1000 men at dragonstone.

A large part of the lannister force has probably been discharged to go home and collect collect the harvest.

Regardless, house lannister's total remaining strength is about 24,000-25,000 men.

 

5. Dorne:

Dorne is still united under house martell and has been left unmolested by the war. Though quentyn claims that they have 50 k men, this is highly improbable has doran himself admits that they have overstated their armies for centuries and that dorne has the least population of the seven kingdoms.

They probably have about 25,000-30,000 men divided between two host.

 

6. The Riverlands:

a. House Frey: They have about 2000-3000 men in the riverlands proper. They have about 500 horses.

b. Other Riverlords: I'm not sure about this. Perhaps they have the ability to raise about 10,000 to 14,000 men.

 

7. The Reach: 

a. House Hightower: As sam claims they are stronger than the tyrells and as rich as the lannisters. They even have a sufficient fleet that lady lannister used to invade the iron islands during the time of the Red kraken.

I'd put their army at 20,000 men as they provided the backbone of the Green army during the Dance of dragons. And possibly have about 50-100 heavy galleys.

b. The tyrells: The tyrells have not suffered any real damage so far. They won decisively at the blackwater. After that a great portion of their army has been sent home. Mace tyrell probably has 15,000-20,000 men in the battle for storm's end against ageon.

Randyll tarly possibly has 10,000-15,000 men at maidenpool which he brought to kings landing. 

And lastly according to margaery's claim Garlan and willias can raise 30,000 further men in the reach to fend off Euron's invasion. 

The only real losses they seem to have suffered is the loss of the florent army and the shield islands army. Possibly deducting 7,000-8,000 men from their levy.

But in total they have about 70,000 men plus Lord Redwyne's 200-ship fleet.

 

8. The Stormlands: 

This is a mystery, where is the army of the stormlands? Is it with mace and randyll?

 

 

[Floki of the Ironborn]

Regarding the North, Manderly certainly has a lot of fighters with him. I'd say just as much as the Boltons if not more. He influences several other houses and has gathered many refugees at White Harbour. I'd put his surviving forces at 4000 or so.

Then there's also the fighting forces of Skagos and the banmermen sworn to House Reed. Not sure how many they are or whether we'll even see them enter the fray.

[Free Northman Reborn]

56 minutes ago, Marcus corvinus said:

Note: I'm talking about current military strengths of the various factions, not the nominal strength. How much men, ships and equipment they have at the end of ADWD and how much can we can see them putting to use in the future.

1. Iron islands: 

a. King Euron: Victarion took the iron fleet to mereen which had most of the ironmen's elite ships and probably the best raiders/fighters. So euron is left with mostly longships. 

Margaery claims that the ironmen brought with them a 1000 ships in the invasion of the shield islands. Rodrik the Reader confirms this when he expreses his doubt about euron taking the iron fleet around dorne. Victarion took 100 of the Iron fleet. Asha also took some men and ships with her to deepwood motte. He probably left the newly minted lords of the shield islands with some ships and men to garrison the castles.

And counting for losses, my guess is euron's total current force south of the shield islands is about 850 ships. As most of the galleys left with victarion, Euron is left with only longships. And in addition to longships, there are also cogs, fishing boats and other smaller boats pressed into service.

We can estimate that he has about 60,000-65,000 men with him. Obviously the bulk of these are oarsmen and other technical and support personnel. If we assume that 25% of them are fighters, we can assume that euron has about 15,000-17,000 warriors/infantrymen with him. It would make sense, as the iron islands have the smallest population and agricultural base of all the kingdoms and being a naval people, they should have the smallest army. Very little to none would be cavalrymen.

b. Lord Captain Vicatrion: Victarion is currently at slaver's bay has about 44 war galleys, 17 captured ships. As galleys are the premier naval ship of the era, they would require more oarsmen and would be able to house more infantry. The wiki states that he has about 4400 reavers(infantry) with him. Has no cavalry.

c. Asha Greyjoy: She has 9 stout men.

 

2.  The North: 

a. House Bolton: At winterfell Lord Bolton has a total of 7,750+ men. Though some are of uncertain loyalty.

House Bolton by itself probably has about 3000-3500 men; 2500-2800 of the 3500 men at the Red wedding plus, Ramsay's 600 men. About 600-800 of these men are cavalry.

The Arnolf Karstarks were going to betray Stannis but they have been neutralized. 

Further there are about 1000 frey soldiers. Further 1000 red wedding karstarks and whoresbane Umbers are with Roose. Though the umbers are of uncertain loyalty.

There are 300 manderly's of uncertain loyalty. And there are unknown numbers of men from house ryswell, dustin, cerwyn and tallhart.

b. King Stannis: King Stannis has about 1300-1400 southern knights, 2000 mountain men, 500 umber men and about 1200 soldiers from various stark loyalists, giving a total of about 5000 men. Nearly all his forces are infantry as he lost almost all his horses en route to winterfell. He has perhaps 50 cavalry.

c. Lord commander Jon snow: Has about 500-600 men in the nights watch. Possibly 100-150 cavalry. And he has a further of nearly 1000-2000 wildling warriors. 

d. Lord Manderly: He has lost about 1500 men, 200 of them horses but still claims he commands more heavy horse than any other northern lord.

He has about 300 mounted knights with him at winterfell. Its safe to assume that he has a total of about 800-1000 heavy horse left as he still has more heavy horse than any other northern lord. And as he lost 1300 foot soldiers. He might still have another 3000 footmen left.

And in addition to that he has been constructing a fleet.

 

3. The Vale:

The vale is still united under house arryn and is so far untouched by war. And as they have already reaped their harvest, they can afford to spare men and furthermore the population of the vale is concentrated around small fertile region. So we can assume that in the case of war the vale can muster its full force which could be about 35,000-40,000 men with probably 8,000-10,000 cavalry.

 

4. The Lannisters:

a. House Baratheon of King's Landing: The iron throne directly commands about 3500 gold cloaks. Its entire naval strength has deserted with aurane waters. Several houses from the crownlands are sworn directly to the iron throne. Though their loyalty is shaky as was revealed when they came up with nearly no men at the battle of blackwater bay. 

How much men they field is also a matter of contention as the crownlands are small but rich and overpopulated.

b. House lannister: Tywin raised 35,000 men at the start of the war. Jaime's army of 15000 was destroyed at the whispering wood and further 10,000 men were crushed at oxcross. 4000 men from jaime's army and a few thousand from stafford's army survived and regrouped.

In the end tywin's 20,000-man army endured the war albeit some losses. Cersei lost nearly a 1000 men at dragonstone.

A large part of the lannister force has probably been discharged to go home and collect collect the harvest.

Regardless, house lannister's total remaining strength is about 24,000-25,000 men.

 

5. Dorne:

Dorne is still united under house martell and has been left unmolested by the war. Though quentyn claims that they have 50 k men, this is highly improbable has doran himself admits that they have overstated their armies for centuries and that dorne has the least population of the seven kingdoms.

They probably have about 25,000-30,000 men divided between two host.

 

6. The Riverlands:

a. House Frey: They have about 2000-3000 men in the riverlands proper. They have about 500 horses.

b. Other Riverlords: I'm not sure about this. Perhaps they have the ability to raise about 10,000 to 14,000 men.

 

7. The Reach: 

a. House Hightower: As sam claims they are stronger than the tyrells and as rich as the lannisters. They even have a sufficient fleet that lady lannister used to invade the iron islands during the time of the Red kraken.

I'd put their army at 20,000 men as they provided the backbone of the Green army during the Dance of dragons. And possibly have about 50-100 heavy galleys.

b. The tyrells: The tyrells have not suffered any real damage so far. They won decisively at the blackwater. After that a great portion of their army has been sent home. Mace tyrell probably has 15,000-20,000 men in the battle for storm's end against ageon.

Randyll tarly possibly has 10,000-15,000 men at maidenpool which he brought to kings landing. 

And lastly according to margaery's claim Garlan and willias can raise 30,000 further men in the reach to fend off Euron's invasion. 

The only real losses they seem to have suffered is the loss of the florent army and the shield islands army. Possibly deducting 7,000-8,000 men from their levy.

But in total they have about 70,000 men plus Lord Redwyne's 200-ship fleet.

 

8. The Stormlands: 

This is a mystery, where is the army of the stormlands? Is it with mace and randyll?

 

 

NIce thread. Just a few thoughts that jumped out at me when I scanned  through the above.

The Iron Isles is an interesting one. George seems to think that they can muster virtually every able bodied man for war, due to their martial culture. I have my doubts, as you surely still need men at home to be shipbuilders, sheepherders, inn keepers, roof thatchers, tanners, smiths, bakers, carpenters and so on and so forth. But let's say they can muster 50% of all their able bodied men. The end result being a mobilization of around  10% of their total population, then. If so, then the 60,000 men you talk about in the total fleet is possible, I guess. Of which something around 20-25k would be fighting men.

Regarding the North. It is worth pointing out that the Boltons must have had at least a 25% heavy cavalry ratio at Winterfell, out of their say 2500-2800 or so men there. Meaning at least 600-700 heavy cavalry with Roose. Added to which the additional mounted lances with Ramsay and it would seem that the Boltons are able to muster at least 1000 mounted lances. Meaning Manderly still has more than that, even after his losses with Robb and his losses with Ser Rodriks host at Winterfell.

 In any case, Manderly should easily have around 1200 heavy cavalry left, then, but it could well be 1500 or theabouts. So add that to the Bolton heavy cavalry, and the heavy cavalry kept back by the Dustins, Ryswells and others, and the North would appear to easily have 3000 heavy cavalry left, and possibly even 4000.

It is noteworthy that the "southerly" Houses of the North contributed only 2000 cavalry to Robb's host, between the Manderlys, Lockes, Flints of Widows Watch, Flints of Flints Finger, Slates, Ryswells and Dustins. We know the Manderlys provided only 200, so that leaves 1800 between the Dustins, 2 Flint Houses, Ryswells, Slates and Lockes. That equates to about 300 cavalry per House, on average. It is likely that this is not even half of the cavalry that these 6 Houses have in total.

So if we have another 1800 cavalry from these 6 Houses, plus just 1200 for Manderly, plus Roose's 1000, that gives you 4000 Northern cavalry remaining without counting any remaining cavalry from more northerly Houses like the Cerwyns, Starks, Tallharts, Glovers, Hornwoods, Glovers etc.

[fenr1s]

1 hour ago, Marcus corvinus said:

1. Iron islands: 

a. King Euron: Victarion took the iron fleet to mereen which had most of the ironmen's elite ships and probably the best raiders/fighters. So euron is left with mostly longships. 

Margaery claims that the ironmen brought with them a 1000 ships in the invasion of the shield islands. Rodrik the Reader confirms this when he expreses his doubt about euron taking the iron fleet around dorne. Victarion took 100 of the Iron fleet. Asha also took some men and ships with her to deepwood motte. He probably left the newly minted lords of the shield islands with some ships and men to garrison the castles.

The 1000 ships is most certainly an exaggeration its probably around 600-800 ships including the Ironfleet

Quote

And counting for losses, my guess is euron's total current force south of the shield islands is about 850 ships. As most of the galleys left with victarion, Euron is left with only longships. And in addition to longships, there are also cogs, fishing boats and other smaller boats pressed into service.

Victarion left the Shieldislands with the Ironfleet consisting wholly of large longships probably crewed by 8000-10000 Ironborn.

Quote

We can estimate that he has about 60,000-65,000 men with him. Obviously the bulk of these are oarsmen and other technical and support personnel. If we assume that 25% of them are fighters, we can assume that euron has about 15,000-17,000 warriors/infantrymen with him. It would make sense, as the iron islands have the smallest population and agricultural base of all the kingdoms and being a naval people, they should have the smallest army. Very little to none would be cavalrymen.

Longships would not have dedicated oarsmen or large crews. The crew takes the oars when sailing isnt viable, if we estimate an average crew size of 30 men, there should be around 15000-25000 Ironborn on those ships.

 

Quote

b. Lord Captain Vicatrion: Victarion is currently at slaver's bay has about 44 war galleys, 17 captured ships. As galleys are the premier naval ship of the era, they would require more oarsmen and would be able to house more infantry. The wiki states that he has about 4400 reavers(infantry) with him. Has no cavalry.

The Ironfleet is made of large longships 3 times the size of an average longship. Victarion leaves with the remaining strength of 93 ships for slavers bay and a crew of probably around 8000 Ironborn. He loses almost half of his strength on the voyage which leaves him with little more than 4000 men.

 

[fenr1s]

1 hour ago, Marcus corvinus said:

 

He has about 300 mounted knights with him at winterfell. Its safe to assume that he has a total of about 800-1000 heavy horse left as he still has more heavy horse than any other northern lord. And as he lost 1300 foot soldiers. He might still have another 3000 footmen left.

Manderly has also been recruiting heavily in Whiteharbor allowing every able bodied man into his force which could increase his numbers over his usual levied force.

 

1 hour ago, Marcus corvinus said:

3. The Vale:

The vale is still united under house arryn and is so far untouched by war. And as they have already reaped their harvest, they can afford to spare men and furthermore the population of the vale is concentrated around small fertile region. So we can assume that in the case of war the vale can muster its full force which could be about 35,000-40,000 men with probably 8,000-10,000 cavalry.

We have no hints to the actual strength of the Vale but it seems unlikely that they could raise that many more men than the Riverlands or the North I would estimate them at 25-35 thousand.

1 hour ago, Marcus corvinus said:

4. The Lannisters:

 

How much men they field is also a matter of contention as the crownlands are small but rich and overpopulated.

The Crownlands are to some extent devastated by war.

 

1 hour ago, Marcus corvinus said:

5. Dorne:

Dorne is still united under house martell and has been left unmolested by the war. Though quentyn claims that they have 50 k men, this is highly improbable has doran himself admits that they have overstated their armies for centuries and that dorne has the least population of the seven kingdoms.

They probably have about 25,000-30,000 men divided between two host.

The lower estimation of around 25000 seems about right when we consider that they only sent 10000 men under Prince Lewyn to the trident and are repeatedly named as the least populated region of the mainland.

1 hour ago, Marcus corvinus said:

 

 

 

7. The Reach: 

 

The only real losses they seem to have suffered is the loss of the florent army and the shield islands army. Possibly deducting 7,000-8,000 men from their levy.

But in total they have about 70,000 men plus Lord Redwyne's 200-ship fleet.

The Reach also suffered casualties at Duskendale and on Dragonstone but in total they probably still have above 65000 men.

 

[Nyrhex]

Iron islands

The Iron Islands have, at a conservative estimate, ~400 ships for raid and war (we see only 400 captains when Balon launches his war), of those 100 are the war longships of the Iron Fleet and 300 are smaller longships for raid. We have the Tyrells claiming 1,000 and we have the Small Council calling it bullshit and it has to be double, and that there is no lord who has 1,000 ships. Even Redwyne has only 200 warships, and the other 1,000 ships are civilian. That the Iron Islands can raise another ~600 fishing and other small craft to join the war and raid ships, I see no reason to doubt, but it does not make them 1,000 ships for war, not does it make them able to carry such a ridiculous host of 60,000+.

The longships of the Iron Fleet are a topic on thier own. IMO the evidence is clearly leaning to ~50 men per ship, who are also the fighters, but there are also the higher estimations of a fantastic 100 men per ship. Let's go with the largest historical longships of war, which sits in the middle. So 100x75=7,500 Ironborn warriors. The other longships are a third of the size. If we again go to the historical examples, this would give us something along the lines of 300x40=12,000 Ironborn warriors. Round up with the fisherfolk and others who joined the war and can kinda-sorta-if-you-squint-a-bit join the fight, and the Ironbron have just a bit over 20,000 warriors. Seems fair enough, each region was said to be able to raise 20,000 men, and while Dorne is the least populated, the Ironborn's economy tanked in the last 300 years with the loss of the ability to raid Westeros, and have suffered a crushing defeat in the current generation. The fact that they can raise 400 ships to raid/war and fill thier ranks again is an achievement by itself.

The Iron Fleet is with Victarion on the way to Meereen, the rest are with Euron. Each portion starts the next book in a massive battle, so numbers are about to change dramatically.

The North

A. House Bolton: At winterfell Lord Bolton has a total of 6,800+ men. Though some are of uncertain loyalty.

House Bolton has about 4,000 Northmen who came north with Roose including Karstark men; Ramsay's 600 men. At least 1,100 of these men are cavalry (Roose had 500, and Ramsay has 600 all cavalry).

The Umbers have 300 spearmen and 100 bowmen. 

Manderly has 300 men, of them 100 are knights. 

The Dustins and Ryswells are unknowns.

Further there are about 1,500 frey soldiers. 500 cavalry, at least 1,000 foot.

The Arnolf Karstarks were going to betray Stannis but they have been neutralized. 400 Spearmen, 40 Bowmen, 12 lancers.

B. King Stannis: King Stannis has under 1,200 southern knights. He had 1,300 on Dragonstone. He left 82 on the Wall, and he had to leave a skeleton garrison on Dragonstone, which even at 18 men and without counting a bit of losses at the Wall would bring him down to 1,200 men. I think 1,150 is a good figure before the "Cold Count" brings that number down. There are two versions here as well, one that says that the cold count gave the new losses each night, the other that it was counting all total losses. I lean to the former. Of the 800 warhorses at Deepwood Motte, only 62 remain, and that is down to 50 after Massey takes 12 to the Wall.

There are 2,000-3,000 Clansmen. Stannis had ~5,000 right before he left Deepwood Motte, so he had a total of 1850-850 additional men from houses Mormont, Glover, Hornwood Cerwyn, Tallhart, and others from all along the Stonry Shore and from the Wolfswood, depending on how many Clansmen. The Umber faction with Stannis is an unknown, so far we can only confirm 20 boys from the Theon chapter, he did not see any more.

C. Night's Watch: Had close to 600 men after Jon was elected and a couple of new recruit rounds showed up. Of the first ~900 Wildlings to bend the knee to Stannis, ~200 Thenns under the command of Sigorn. Possible a total of 400 with another ~100 other Wildlings who are also wounded or sick, and maybe another 100 Spearwives. About 63 accepted to aid the NW to some capacity. Of the second group of 3,119 Wildlings, maybe a 1,000 were fighters, and about 100 of those were mounted. 

The Thenns are currently marching on Karhold, the other Wildlings and NW men are scattered all over the Wall with the bulk of them either neutral or hostile to Jon Snow. Something along the lines of a quarter to a third of the NW is currently in mortal danger on the Hardhome mission (Melisandre claims that none would return alive, and from the descriptions it sounds like she would be right about that).

D. Lord Manderly: He has about more than 1,100 cavalry if his boast to Davos is correct, and if we go with the usual 1-3 cavalry to foot ratio, he would also command ~3,300 foot. 50 war galleys, very likely that a few hundred of the footmen would be stationed on those as marines.

The Vale

No difference.

The Crownlands

No difference.

The Westerlands

Of the original 35,000 men at the start of the War, we know that 4,000 men of Jaime's army retreated in good order, and the two other camps were scattered, not destroyed. A conservative estimate of few hundred from the northern and western camps have survived and made it back to the Westerlands over time. We know that Tywin's host of 20,000 was not diminished too much that it was still referred to as 20,000 men late in the war, though this is likely Tyrion overselling the numbers. At least 15,000 survived the war from that host. There is no indication of the number of troops at Oxcross, the number 10,000 is a factoid. Again, the host is scattered, not destroyed. The Lannisters currently have ~20,000 veterans as a conservative estimation from the Tywin and Jaime hosts, and a large recruitment potential still remains. Around 1,000 troops are on Dragonstone, a few hundreds are with Tarly, and fewer than 2,000 in the Riverlands. The rest are back home. The Lannisport fleet would be 20-30 warships, though it is not likely to see any action. The combined Westerlands fleet including ships from vassels is likely ~50 warships. 

Dorne

No difference.

The Riverlands

A. House Frey: With ~2,000 men in the 2nd Siege of Riverrun and ~1,500 up North, add a garrison and the Freys don't seem to have suffered many losses from the start of the war or they managed to make up for it with new recruitment. Current force ~4,000 men, and they were in the part of the Riverlands that was the least touched by war so still a decent potential for recruitment.

B. Rest of Riverlands: 11,000 men were called in under 3 days (3,000 cavalry, 8,000 foot). They did not seem to suffer many losses during the Battle of the Fords and only a few nobles were in the Red Wedding. The rest of the Riverlands suffered greatly during the war, but the population we see uncalled for war is still substantial.

Total Riverlands numbers at ~4,000 cavalry, ~11,000 infantry. Limited potential for new recruitment for the man with the coin, though food would probably serve better.

The Reach

A. The Reach currently has 3 active hosts. Mace has ~30,000 men between himself and the token garrison he left at Storm's End. Willas and Garlan have 20,000 and growing. Tarly has at most 10,000 men from the Reach, Stormlands and Westerlands. Mace and Tarly are at the capital, Willas and Garlan are facing the Ironborn.

B. House Hightower: The minimum is 6,000 plus. We know they have thrice the numbers of the largest other Reach lord, and we only know about the Florents having 2,000 swords. A larger port city than Lannisport, and the Hightowers control about the same amount of land and vassals as the Lannisters, I'd put the navy at 50 at least. Anything more is speculation, we don't really have data here.

Lord Redwyne's 200 warships and 1,000 other ships fleet is on it's way to the Arbor, while Hightower is sending ships from the Mander to flank the Ironborn. But Euron has plot shileds because he needs to be relevant so they would likely be destroyed/captured early into TWOW.

The potential in the reach is massive, and 100,000 troops if they have the time and peace of mind to group them all is very conservative.

The Stormlands 

There are some Stormlords with Tarly's army, but not alot. The eastern Stormlands was taken way too easily because the soldiers were away, but there were not that many losses on the Blakcwater, and they can't be taking so long to get back home, that this is clearly where GRRM is making life easy for the Golden Company, rather than the Stormlands makng sense. Conservative estimations were that of Renly's original 90,000 men host, 30,000 were from the Stormlands. Losses were in the high hundreds to low thousands, and only a few thousands with Tarly, which begs the question of where the heck are ~25,000 Stormlands soldiers? Also, where the heck are the soldiers of the houses that sat out the war? Wherre are the soldiers of the houses that kept a foot in each camp?

 

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

Iron islands

The Iron Islands have, at a conservative estimate, ~400 ships for raid and war (we see only 400 captains when Balon launches his war), of those 100 are the war longships of the Iron Fleet and 300 are smaller longships for raid. We have the Tyrells claiming 1,000 and we have the Small Council calling it bullshit and it has to be double, and that there is no lord who has 1,000 ships. Even Redwyne has only 200 warships, and the other 1,000 ships are civilian. That the Iron Islands can raise another ~600 fishing and other small craft to join the war and raid ships, I see no reason to doubt, but it does not make them 1,000 ships for war, not does it make them able to carry such a ridiculous host of 60,000+.

The longships of the Iron Fleet are a topic on thier own. IMO the evidence is clearly leaning to ~50 men per ship, who are also the fighters, but there are also the higher estimations of a fantastic 100 men per ship. Let's go with the largest historical longships of war, which sits in the middle. So 100x75=7,500 Ironborn warriors. The other longships are a third of the size. If we again go to the historical examples, this would give us something along the lines of 300x40=12,000 Ironborn warriors. Round up with the fisherfolk and others who joined the war and can kinda-sorta-if-you-squint-a-bit join the fight, and the Ironbron have just a bit over 20,000 warriors. Seems fair enough, each region was said to be able to raise 20,000 men, and while Dorne is the least populated, the Ironborn's economy tanked in the last 300 years with the loss of the ability to raid Westeros, and have suffered a crushing defeat in the current generation. The fact that they can raise 400 ships to raid/war and fill thier ranks again is an achievement by itself.

The Iron Fleet is with Victarion on the way to Meereen, the rest are with Euron. Each portion starts the next book in a massive battle, so numbers are about to change dramatically.

The North

A. House Bolton: At winterfell Lord Bolton has a total of 6,800+ men. Though some are of uncertain loyalty.

House Bolton has about 4,000 Northmen who came north with Roose including Karstark men; Ramsay's 600 men. At least 1,100 of these men are cavalry (Roose had 500, and Ramsay has 600 all cavalry).

The Umbers have 300 spearmen and 100 bowmen. 

Manderly has 300 men, of them 100 are knights. 

The Dustins and Ryswells are unknowns.

Further there are about 1,500 frey soldiers. 500 cavalry, at least 1,000 foot.

The Arnolf Karstarks were going to betray Stannis but they have been neutralized. 400 Spearmen, 40 Bowmen, 12 lancers.

B. King Stannis: King Stannis has under 1,200 southern knights. He had 1,300 on Dragonstone. He left 82 on the Wall, and he had to leave a skeleton garrison on Dragonstone, which even at 18 men and without counting a bit of losses at the Wall would bring him down to 1,200 men. I think 1,150 is a good figure before the "Cold Count" brings that number down. There are two versions here as well, one that says that the cold count gave the new losses each night, the other that it was counting all total losses. I lean to the former. Of the 800 warhorses at Deepwood Motte, only 62 remain, and that is down to 50 after Massey takes 12 to the Wall.

There are 2,000-3,000 Clansmen. Stannis had ~5,000 right before he left Deepwood Motte, so he had a total of 1850-850 additional men from houses Mormont, Glover, Hornwood Cerwyn, Tallhart, and others from all along the Stonry Shore and from the Wolfswood, depending on how many Clansmen. The Umber faction with Stannis is an unknown, so far we can only confirm 20 boys from the Theon chapter, he did not see any more.

C. Night's Watch: Had close to 600 men after Jon was elected and a couple of new recruit rounds showed up. Of the first ~900 Wildlings to bend the knee to Stannis, ~200 Thenns under the command of Sigorn. Possible a total of 400 with another ~100 other Wildlings who are also wounded or sick, and maybe another 100 Spearwives. About 63 accepted to aid the NW to some capacity. Of the second group of 3,119 Wildlings, maybe a 1,000 were fighters, and about 100 of those were mounted. 

The Thenns are currently marching on Karhold, the other Wildlings and NW men are scattered all over the Wall with the bulk of them either neutral or hostile to Jon Snow. Something along the lines of a quarter to a third of the NW is currently in mortal danger on the Hardhome mission (Melisandre claims that none would return alive, and from the descriptions it sounds like she would be right about that).

D. Lord Manderly: He has about more than 1,100 cavalry if his boast to Davos is correct, and if we go with the usual 1-3 cavalry to foot ratio, he would also command ~3,300 foot. 50 war galleys, very likely that a few hundred of the footmen would be stationed on those as marines.

The Vale

No difference.

The Crownlands

No difference.

The Westerlands

Of the original 35,000 men at the start of the War, we know that 4,000 men of Jaime's army retreated in good order, and the two other camps were scattered, not destroyed. A conservative estimate of few hundred from the northern and western camps have survived and made it back to the Westerlands over time. We know that Tywin's host of 20,000 was not diminished too much that it was still referred to as 20,000 men late in the war, though this is likely Tyrion overselling the numbers. At least 15,000 survived the war from that host. There is no indication of the number of troops at Oxcross, the number 10,000 is a factoid. Again, the host is scattered, not destroyed. The Lannisters currently have ~20,000 veterans as a conservative estimation from the Tywin and Jaime hosts, and a large recruitment potential still remains. Around 1,000 troops are on Dragonstone, a few hundreds are with Tarly, and fewer than 2,000 in the Riverlands. The rest are back home. The Lannisport fleet would be 20-30 warships, though it is not likely to see any action. The combined Westerlands fleet including ships from vassels is likely ~50 warships. 

Dorne

No difference.

The Riverlands

A. House Frey: With ~2,000 men in the 2nd Siege of Riverrun and ~1,500 up North, add a garrison and the Freys don't seem to have suffered many losses from the start of the war or they managed to make up for it with new recruitment. Current force ~4,000 men, and they were in the part of the Riverlands that was the least touched by war so still a decent potential for recruitment.

B. Rest of Riverlands: 11,000 men were called in under 3 days (3,000 cavalry, 8,000 foot). They did not seem to suffer many losses during the Battle of the Fords and only a few nobles were in the Red Wedding. The rest of the Riverlands suffered greatly during the war, but the population we see uncalled for war is still substantial.

Total Riverlands numbers at ~4,000 cavalry, ~11,000 infantry. Limited potential for new recruitment for the man with the coin, though food would probably serve better.

The Reach

A. The Reach currently has 3 active hosts. Mace has ~30,000 men between himself and the token garrison he left at Storm's End. Willas and Garlan have 20,000 and growing. Tarly has at most 10,000 men from the Reach, Stormlands and Westerlands. Mace and Tarly are at the capital, Willas and Garlan are facing the Ironborn.

B. House Hightower: The minimum is 6,000 plus. We know they have thrice the numbers of the largest other Reach lord, and we only know about the Florents having 2,000 swords. A larger port city than Lannisport, and the Hightowers control about the same amount of land and vassals as the Lannisters, I'd put the navy at 50 at least. Anything more is speculation, we don't really have data here.

Lord Redwyne's 200 warships and 1,000 other ships fleet is on it's way to the Arbor, while Hightower is sending ships from the Mander to flank the Ironborn. But Euron has plot shileds because he needs to be relevant so they would likely be destroyed/captured early into TWOW.

The potential in the reach is massive, and 100,000 troops if they have the time and peace of mind to group them all is very conservative.

The Stormlands 

There are some Stormlords with Tarly's army, but not alot. The eastern Stormlands was taken way too easily because the soldiers were away, but there were not that many losses on the Blakcwater, and they can't be taking so long to get back home, that this is clearly where GRRM is making life easy for the Golden Company, rather than the Stormlands makng sense. Conservative estimations were that of Renly's original 90,000 men host, 30,000 were from the Stormlands. Losses were in the high hundreds to low thousands, and only a few thousands with Tarly, which begs the question of where the heck are ~25,000 Stormlands soldiers? Also, where the heck are the soldiers of the houses that sat out the war? Wherre are the soldiers of the houses that kept a foot in each camp?

 

 

Interesting.

From your references above about the North, you would have to agree with the following, then:

Roose brought 4000 Northmen back from the South. To that Ramsay seems to add at least 1000, including his own 600 and the various contributions from other lords when he marches on Moat Cailin. Considering the numbers that the Umbers and Karstarks have left, it would seem that the combined Dustin/Ryswell force likely numbers at least another 1000. That means that when these forces combine at Moat Cailin, then just with Roose Bolton there should be around 6000 Northmen, BEFORE they go to Winterfell for the wedding.

Add to that about 4000 Northmen with Stannis in Dance, and you get to 10,000 remaining Northmen in total.

But then you have to add Arnolf Karstarks 450, which joins Stannis only in Winds of Winter, and takes the total to about 10500.

Note that this is just men we have seen onscreen so far, and no other reserves that are as yet offscreen.

Then, as per your own calculation above, we know that the Manderlys must have at LEAST 1100 heavy cavalry. Note, it could be substantially more, but that is the absolute minimum. Again, according to your own calculation, that should give them a total force of around 4500. Add that to the 10500 figure above, and you get to a remaining Northmen total of 15000.

But that is before you add any additional men that Manderly is busy recruiting in White Harbor. And it excludes any men the various other lords have not committed to Winterfell, but kept home instead. For example, if House Dustin had a strength of 3000, and only sent half of that with Robb, that means they should have another 1500 left, and not just the 500 that we have included as half of the Dustin/Ryswell force.

And importantly, the above 15000 also completely excludes all of Skagos and all the Crannogmen, who are yet to appear onscreen.

So can we at least agree that without adding any men than what we have seen onscreen or which Manderly has directly implied to exist, we already get to 15000 remaining men in the North at the beginning of Winds of Winter? Of which about 3000 should be heavy cavalry.

 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

15 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That means that when these forces combine at Moat Cailin, then just with Roose Bolton there should be around 6000 Northmen, BEFORE thy go to Winterfell for the wedding.

It is between 5-6k at Winterfell according to Theon

https://asearchoficeandfire.com/?q="Five+thousand.+Six.+More."+He+gave+the+king+a+ghastly+grin%2C+all+shattered+teeth+and+splinters.+"More+than+you."+&scope[]=twow&povs[]=Theon

 

 

I'm not sure there was 6,000 Northmen with Roose before he went to Winterfell.

[Free Northman Reborn]

12 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

It is between 5-6k at Winterfell according to Theon

Stannis Baratheon paced the floor. The tower was a small one, dank and cramped. A few steps brought the king around to Theon. "How many men does Bolton have at Winterfell?"

"Five thousand. Six. More." He gave the king a ghastly grin, all shattered teeth and splinters. "More than you."

 

I'm not sure there was 6,000 Northmen with Roose before he went to Winterfell.

Theon doesn't know for sure. And I note you ignore the "more" part of his answer.

And we know it is in fact "more". Roose brings 4000 Northmen and 1500 Freys up the Neck. Even if you just add the minimum 600 men with Ramsay, that already takes them to 6100. That is without a single Manderly (of which there are 300), Locke, Slate, Dustin, Ryswell, Cerwyn, Hornwood or Umber at Winterfell.

Now it may be that the Ryswells and Dustins - after first returning to Barrowton with Roose - did not send all of the men they gathered at Moat Cailin up to Winterfell for the wedding. Just like Manderly only sent 300 of his thousands.

But the point is that the men we have seen onscreen, whether they are all gathered at Winterfell or not, (plus the number even Nyrhex has agreed Manderly must have), already add up to 15000.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

Theon doesn't know for sure.

Why would Theon not know for sure?

How is it you will use him as source when he counts the number of men returning North (or even the number leaving to go South) but not now? If Theon is an unreliable source here then we can discount the 20k going South with Robb as well.

 

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

And I note you ignore the "more" part of his answer.

How exactly did I ignore it? I included it in my response.

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

And we know it is in fact "more". Roose brings 4000 Northmen and 1500 Freys up the Neck. Even if you just add the minimum 600 men with Ramsay, that already takes them to 6100. That is without a single Manderly (of which there are 300), Locke, Slate, Dustin, Ryswell, Cerwyn, Hornwood or Umber at Winterfell.

Some of the men returning with Roose will be Lockes, Slates, Cerwyns, Hornwoods and even Ryswellls and Dustins.
 

Theon mentions around 5-6k. 300 Manderlys, just under 4k Northmen returning, 600 Boltons and 400 Umbers and some Dustins and Ryswells.

Seems about right.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

10 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Why would Theon not know for sure?

How is it you will use him as source when he counts the number of men returning North (or even the number leaving to go South) but not now? If Theon is an unreliable source here then we can discount the 20k going South with Robb as well.

 

How exactly did I ignore it? I included it in my response.

Some of the men returning with Roose will be Lockes, Slates, Cerwyns, Hornwoods and even Ryswellls and Dustins.
 

Theon mentions around 5-6k. 300 Manderlys, just under 4k Northmen returning, 600 Boltons and 400 Umbers and some Dustins and Ryswells.

Seems about right.

 

You ignore it because you go with the between 5-6k figure immediately after the quote and discount the fact that he suggested "more" as an equally viable option.

And you forgot the 1500 Freys in your calculation above.

Also, if you state that the Dustins and Ryswells were already in Roose's returning army, you forget the additional Dustin and Ryswell force that joined them at Moat Cailin.

The likely number at Winterfell should be around 8000, if you include the Freys. But I am entirely open to the idea that various men from the returning army were sent home for various reasons, after being away from home for the entire Southron campaign. As well as the fact that not everyone who gathered at Barrowton journeyed on to Winterfell.

So of the 8000 that have appeared on screen, and should have been at Winterfell, maybe only 6500 or so are left. That doesn't mean that they aren't still around in the North. They just didn't go to Winterfell.

[Nyrhex]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Interesting.

From your references above about the North, you would have to agree with the following, then:

Roose brought 4000 Northmen back from the South. To that Ramsay seems to add at least 1000, including his own 600 and the various contributions from other lords when he marches on Moat Cailin. Considering the numbers that the Umbers and Karstarks have left, it would seem that the combined Dustin/Ryswell force likely numbers at least another 1000. That means that when these forces combine at Moat Cailin, then just with Roose Bolton there should be around 6000 Northmen, BEFORE they go to Winterfell for the wedding.

Add to that about 4000 Northmen with Stannis in Dance, and you get to 10,000 remaining Northmen in total.

But then you have to add Arnolf Karstarks 450, which joins Stannis only in Winds of Winter, and takes the total to about 10500.

Note that this is just men we have seen onscreen so far, and no other reserves that are as yet offscreen.

Then, as per your own calculation above, we know that the Manderlys must have at LEAST 1100 heavy cavalry. Note, it could be substantially more, but that is the absolute minimum. Again, according to your own calculation, that should give them a total force of around 4500. Add that to the 10500 figure above, and you get to a remaining Northmen total of 15000.

But that is before you add any additional men that Manderly is busy recruiting in White Harbor. And it excludes any men the various other lords have not committed to Winterfell, but kept home instead. For example, if House Dustin had a strength of 3000, and only sent half of that with Robb, that means they should have another 1500 left, and not just the 500 that we have included as half of the Dustin/Ryswell force.

And importantly, the above 15000 also completely excludes all of Skagos and all the Crannogmen, who are yet to appear onscreen.

So can we at least agree that without adding any men than what we have seen onscreen or which Manderly has directly implied to exist, we already get to 15000 remaining men in the North at the beginning of Winds of Winter? Of which about 3000 should be heavy cavalry.

 

Corrections:

1. There are ~3,850 Northmen with Stannis when he marches to Winterfell. 

2. This is after Manderly is recruiting in White Harbor. The fleet of 50 Westerosi war galleys alone would require 5k oarsmen and another ~1k crew and marines (marines to be deducted from the infantry). Manderly has already sent 1,500 men to die in war. The massive recruitment effort was largely to man the fleet. This recruitment took place during the war, and the latest info is after Davos is locked in the Wolf's Den and it is only after that that Manderly makes the claim regarding his force.

3. It excludes, at most: Skagos, the portion of the North south of Hornwood, east of White Harbor all the way to Widow's Watch. Pretty much everything else is covered already, and it's the lords east of Manderly that are interesting if they fall under his numbers or "extra". 

4. We have no clue regarding house Dustin and Ryswell. Ryswell was only mentioned in later books, they may well be a minor house. Sure, they can have more, but we have no clue and little reason to assume a large amount of men left based on how many men she takes with her. Why on earth would she lead 500 men to war and leave 1,000 behind? 

5. The Crannogmen are not troops. Skagos are not either, but I can buy it if GRRM pulls a mountain clansmen and have another 3,000 fur-clad and stick-armed warriors. It would kind of be hard to see just why on earth they would be fighting for the Starks, but fine, let's say that they pull a Yronwood and completely forget thier backstory to make it easy on the lord paramount of thier region. The Crannogmen have repeatedly been referred to as little guys who don't play straight, keep to thier bogs, and generally are just wierd. Bog-devils that shoot some poisened arrows from thier swamp. If 3,000 fur-clad and stick-armed warriors pop out, heck if even 300 fur-clad and stick-armed warriors pop out, that would be a complete ass-pull and we'd know that GRRM is literally trying to invent more troops for the North. There is no logical reason for any of them to leave the Neck aside of one plot-crucial character. Nor is there any reason to think that they can send a force that would be effective in any plausible scenario outside of the Neck.

6. We can agree that without adding Skgos, the Crannogmen, and possibly (depending on reading) the lords east of Manderly, there are at least 5,000 Northmen with Roose, the Dustins and Ryswells probably make for another 1,000 men. Manderly probably has 4,500 fighting men. Stannis has another 3,850 Northmen and another 450 Northmen of questionable loyalty, plus 20+ Umber boys. That goes to a grand total of 14,820+. Of those ~1,100 heavy horse with Bolton, ~1,100 with Manderly, 12 Karstark lancers, and we have very little info about the rest, but we can probably round it up to 2,500 without too much trouble if the Dustins and Ryswells have ~150 horse each out of 500 men. We just don't have the info regarding the other forces, but they don't give the impression of having much heavy horse. Also giving the Northmen with Stannis 500 horse means he did the Battle for Castle Black with only ~300 horses, which even the largest Stannis fan would find completely laughable.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

Corrections:

1. There are ~3,850 Northmen with Stannis when he marches to Winterfell. 

2. This is after Manderly is recruiting in White Harbor. The fleet of 50 Westerosi war galleys alone would require 5k oarsmen and another ~1k crew and marines (marines to be deducted from the infantry). Manderly has already sent 1,500 men to die in war. The massive recruitment effort was largely to man the fleet. This recruitment took place during the war, and the latest info is after Davos is locked in the Wolf's Den and it is only after that that Manderly makes the claim regarding his force.

3. It excludes, at most: Skagos, the portion of the North south of Hornwood, east of White Harbor all the way to Widow's Watch. Pretty much everything else is covered already, and it's the lords east of Manderly that are interesting if they fall under his numbers or "extra". 

4. We have no clue regarding house Dustin and Ryswell. Ryswell was only mentioned in later books, they may well be a minor house. Sure, they can have more, but we have no clue and little reason to assume a large amount of men left based on how many men she takes with her. Why on earth would she lead 500 men to war and leave 1,000 behind? 

5. The Crannogmen are not troops. Skagos are not either, but I can buy it if GRRM pulls a mountain clansmen and have another 3,000 fur-clad and stick-armed warriors. It would kind of be hard to see just why on earth they would be fighting for the Starks, but fine, let's say that they pull a Yronwood and completely forget thier backstory to make it easy on the lord paramount of thier region. The Crannogmen have repeatedly been referred to as little guys who don't play straight, keep to thier bogs, and generally are just wierd. Bog-devils that shoot some poisened arrows from thier swamp. If 3,000 fur-clad and stick-armed warriors pop out, heck if even 300 fur-clad and stick-armed warriors pop out, that would be a complete ass-pull and we'd know that GRRM is literally trying to invent more troops for the North. There is no logical reason for any of them to leave the Neck aside of one plot-crucial character. Nor is there any reason to think that they can send a force that would be effective in any plausible scenario outside of the Neck.

6. We can agree that without adding Skgos, the Crannogmen, and possibly (depending on reading) the lords east of Manderly, there are at least 5,000 Northmen with Roose, the Dustins and Ryswells probably make for another 1,000 men. Manderly probably has 4,500 fighting men. Stannis has another 3,850 Northmen and another 450 Northmen of questionable loyalty, plus 20+ Umber boys. That goes to a grand total of 14,820+. Of those ~1,100 heavy horse with Bolton, ~1,100 with Manderly, 12 Karstark lancers, and we have very little info about the rest, but we can probably round it up to 2,500 without too much trouble if the Dustins and Ryswells have ~150 horse each out of 500 men. We just don't have the info regarding the other forces, but they don't give the impression of having much heavy horse. Also giving the Northmen with Stannis 500 horse means he did the Battle for Castle Black with only ~300 horses, which even the largest Stannis fan would find completely laughable.

1. When Stannis sends Jon his message, he says his host has 5000 men, and growing every day as more men stream to them from the Wolfswood and surrounds. So I think we need not be pedantic about 3820. Stannis's host likely grew a few hundred past the 5000 mark, before it started losing Southroners to the cold count. It may be down to 5000 again now, at the start of Winds (but before Arnolf arrives), but that is because the Southroners have started dying off, reducing their share of the total number.

2. Manderly's recruiting should have little bearing on his heavy horse numbers. You don't train new heavy horse by recruiting every man tall enough to hold a spear. Your heavy horse takes years to train. Those he would likely have had from the start. So if he says he has more heavy horse now than Roose has, these are not from recent recruits. The new recruits would be replacing infantry he has lost. But that does not mean that it will stop at the number he had before. Now that the urgency is there, he has the money to recruit as many men as arrive in White Harbor for the callup. Before, in peacetime, he might have been more than happy with the numbers he had, expecially if it was already more than any other lord had available. But now, there is no reason why the recruiting won't extend beyond the infantry numbers he originally had.

In any case, I note that you give Manderly the absolute minimum needed for him to equal the Bolton heavy cavalry. Always remember that this is the very minimum he needs to give truth to his statement to Davos. But it could well be much higher.

3. It excludes, Skagos, the areas of the southeast North as you say, and the Reeds, who while they will not make good shock troops, can be very usefull as inflitration units, or non conventional forces, and might even be able to launch a nightime amphibious attack on a castle like the Twins, with their supposed ability to "breathe mud" rather telling potential foreshadowing of exactly such an event. In any case, two thousand crannogmen can be most useful, even if they don't consist of mounted lances that can lead a heavy cavalry charge.

4. I also find it interesting that we can have Manderly with all of 4500 men or more left, but we discount the possibility of other lords having even 1000 troops left. Lords like the Dustins and Ryswells, for example. I find it telling that the Karstarks and Umbers, from the distant North, are known to have committed their forces heavily to Robb's call, and yet still raise in the order of 500 and 800 men each thereafter.

By contrast, Lady Dustin rules Barrowton - the second largest settlement in the North, and has admitted to sending as few men with Robb as possible, and yet people find it unlikely that she has 1000 men or more left in her own right? Clearly she kept a healthy number of quality troops back, given the sentiments she expresses to Theon. Similarly, we have no idea what the levels of commitment from the Lockes, Slates and others were, other than seeing that the entire South only contributed 7500 men to Robb's army, which seems very suspect. But be that as it may.

5. What you consider an ass-pull is of course irrelevant to what will or won't happen. Many would see the Skagosi backstory as a deliberate setup from Martin to explain both their ferocity in battle, and the reason why they did not respond to Robb's initial call up. And Rickon's presence there would be the perfect plot development to bring them into play. In fact, it is hard to see how Rickon's presence in Skagos could NOT bring the Skagosi into play. As for the bog devils, I have already addressed them in point 3 above.

6. Regarding the totals, Roose already brings 4000 Northmen up the causeway. Ramsay adds his 600 Dreadfort men, and say another 1000 Dustins and Ryswells. That brings us to 5600 men. Add the Umbers with Hother, and you get to 6000 Northmen already.  Add Stannis's 4000, and Arnolf's 450, and you are at 10,000, without Manderly.

As for additional heavy cavalry. We know the Cerwyns bring two dozen mounted lances to the Harvest feast. There is no indication that this is their full heavy cavalry contingent. Merely the honor guard Cley brings to Winterfell. If the Cerwyns, who committed heavily to the Stark cause, have more heavy cavalry left, why would the Flints of Widow's Watch, Flints of Flints Finger, Slates, Lockes, Ryswells, Dustins etc. not also have various reserves left?

Anyway, we don't actually know how many more Manderly has than Roose. He could well have 1500 heavy horse, for all we know. So all we are arguing about here is an absolute minimum number. And for that, 15000 Northmen in total is reached quite easily.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

You ignore it because you go with the between 5-6k figure immediately after the quote and discount the fact that he suggested "more" as an equally viable option.

I'm sorry, but that quote from an actual book is pretty clear. The number Theon is suggesting is 5-6k at Winterfell, after the arrival of the Manderlys, Umbers.

 

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And you forgot the 1500 Freys in your calculation above.

I didn't forget anything. I am using a quote from the book not my own imagination of a number I want it to be.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Also, if you state that the Dustins and Ryswells were already in Roose's returning army, you forget the additional Dustin and Ryswell force that joined them at Moat Cailin.

And? We have no number on how many these number to. It may be as little as less than a hundred new Dustins and Ryswells augmented to their forces that returned.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The likely number at Winterfell should be around 8000

Not according to Theon. We don't know how many men Ramsay brought with him to Moat Cailin. We don't know if any of the returning Northmen with Roose returned to their own homes.

There are a number of scenarios that could mean that Winterfell has as few as 5k men.

 

[Free Northman Reborn]

49 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

I'm sorry, but that quote from an actual book is pretty clear. The number Theon is suggesting is 5-6k at Winterfell, after the arrival of the Manderlys, Umbers.

 

I didn't forget anything. I am using a quote from the book not my own imagination of a number I want it to be.

And? We have no number on how many these number to. It may be as little as less than a hundred new Dustins and Ryswells augmented to their forces that returned.

Not according to Theon. We don't know how many men Ramsay brought with him to Moat Cailin. We don't know if any of the returning Northmen with Roose returned to their own homes.

There are a number of scenarios that could mean that Winterfell has as few as 5k men.

 

Well, we agree on the last sentence at least, then. There are indeed a number of scenarios as to why all the Northern forces seen in Dance are not gathered at Winterfell.

Regarding the rest of your post. You're the one who disputed that you were ignoring the "more" part of Theon's statement, and yet now you are doubling down on the 5k-6k part, clearly reinforcing the fact that you do discount that there could be more.

The facts from the numbers presented are that Roose brought 5500 men up the Neck, and Ramsay already had 600 Dreadfort men with him. That already took Roose's force up to 6100 men, without any of the Ryswells, Dustins, Manderlys or Umbers added to it. Since we know there are 300 Manderlys at Winterfell, and that Hother has 400 men, that takes the minimum number at Winterfell - excluding any Rysells or Dustins - to 6800.

Furthermore, since we know the Lords Locke, Slate, Ryswell (all five of them), Lady Dustin and others are gathered there, we also know they would have brought men with them from their home keeps, since to my knowledge none of the above Lords were personally part of Roose's returning army from the South. So these additional men at the very least would push the total above 7000.

(Incidentally, there seems to be a rather striking correlation between the number of troops various Houses committed to Robb's host, and the personal participation of the lords of those Houses themselves. Those whose Lords personally led their troops  seem to have committed rather more of their forces. Those where the Lords themselves stayed at home, generally seem to have committed far fewer troops percentage wise. Here I think of the Dustins, Manderlys, Mountain Clans, Ryswells, Reeds, Flints, Lockes and Slates. Versus those who seem to be more depleted now, such as the Karstarks, Umbers, Tallharts, Glovers, Hornwoods. But that is just an interesting side observation.)

In any case, I think we can agree that the total numbers reported to have gathered at Moat Cailin, together with additional arrivals at Winterfell, should far exceed the 5000-6000 range. And I agree that other reasons for a reduced number that remains at Winterfell are quite viable. Most likely because not all of the forces mentioned actually proceeded to gather at Winterfell, or some departed over the course of Dance.

It should just be noted that while Theon was able to observe and count the marching column pass through Moat Cailin in organized fashion, it would be much more difficult to count exactly how many men are gathered in the cramped and chaotic interior of Winterfell. Hence the rather wide range he gives Stannis, from as low as 5000 to 6000, or "MORE".

Unless he is in a very bad state in terms of mental capacity however, it does appear that he has some reason to believe that the number at Winterfell now is lower than the number it should have been if all the mentioned forces were still gathered there.

I of course have no qualms with that. I have no preference regarding how many are gathered at Winterfell. My interest is in how many are left in the North. And the number at Winterfell is simply a tool to help calculate that. In fact, the fewer are at Winterfell, the lower the potential losses in the coming battle of Ice will be.

 

[Lord Varys]

There is no reason to doubt Theon's estimate of Roose having 5,000-6,000 men at Winterfell. Theon had more than enough time to actually get a good picture how many men actually were at Winterfell.

What we can question is whether Theon actually knows that the Boltons have more men than Stannis. Theon didn't have the chance to actually count Stannis' men since he arrived in his camp and was subsequently dragged to Stannis' tower, dangling there.

We also know the numbers of the people who died from the cold in Stannis' army. It was 5,000+ at Deepwood and right now it's the updated cold count (below 100, if I remember correctly) + the burned cannibals. He should still have 5,000+.

Manderlys 300 men at Winterfell are suspiciously low. He must be up to something. Perhaps - perhaps he has brought up another 500 or so men up the White Knife to Castle Cerwyn. One might assume that he would take precautions that the Freys do not leave the North alive. And if Manderly intended to make a deal with Stannis at Winterfell before the battle he actually would have to have men being able to contact him in advance. He could not possibly do that from inside Winterfell.

[Lord Lannister]

These army size number crunching threads always struck me as somewhat silly. The few stated numbers are subject to character exaggeration, viewpoint, fears, or simply ignorance. Martin seems to make a point of being vague about military strengths as not to corner himself into a hole to serve the needs of the plot later. If Manderly needs to raise 10,000 men to serve the need of the plot then he will. If not, then he won't. That's the governing factor more than fictional logistics and manpower pools that are never stated.

[Nyrhex]

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

1. When Stannis sends Jon his message, he says his host has 5000 men, and growing every day as more men stream to them from the Wolfswood and surrounds. So I think we need not be pedantic about 3820. Stannis's host likely grew a few hundred past the 5000 mark, before it started losing Southroners to the cold count. It may be down to 5000 again now, at the start of Winds (but before Arnolf arrives), but that is because the Southroners have started dying off, reducing their share of the total number.

2. Manderly's recruiting should have little bearing on his heavy horse numbers. You don't train new heavy horse by recruiting every man tall enough to hold a spear. Your heavy horse takes years to train. Those he would likely have had from the start. So if he says he has more heavy horse now than Roose has, these are not from recent recruits. The new recruits would be replacing infantry he has lost. But that does not mean that it will stop at the number he had before. Now that the urgency is there, he has the money to recruit as many men as arrive in White Harbor for the callup. Before, in peacetime, he might have been more than happy with the numbers he had, expecially if it was already more than any other lord had available. But now, there is no reason why the recruiting won't extend beyond the infantry numbers he originally had.

In any case, I note that you give Manderly the absolute minimum needed for him to equal the Bolton heavy cavalry. Always remember that this is the very minimum he needs to give truth to his statement to Davos. But it could well be much higher.

3. It excludes, Skagos, the areas of the southeast North as you say, and the Reeds, who while they will not make good shock troops, can be very usefull as inflitration units, or non conventional forces, and might even be able to launch a nightime amphibious attack on a castle like the Twins, with their supposed ability to "breathe mud" rather telling potential foreshadowing of exactly such an event. In any case, two thousand crannogmen can be most useful, even if they don't consist of mounted lances that can lead a heavy cavalry charge.

4. I also find it interesting that we can have Manderly with all of 4500 men or more left, but we discount the possibility of other lords having even 1000 troops left. Lords like the Dustins and Ryswells, for example. I find it telling that the Karstarks and Umbers, from the distant North, are known to have committed their forces heavily to Robb's call, and yet still raise in the order of 500 and 800 men each thereafter.

By contrast, Lady Dustin rules Barrowton - the second largest settlement in the North, and has admitted to sending as few men with Robb as possible, and yet people find it unlikely that she has 1000 men or more left in her own right? Clearly she kept a healthy number of quality troops back, given the sentiments she expresses to Theon. Similarly, we have no idea what the levels of commitment from the Lockes, Slates and others were, other than seeing that the entire South only contributed 7500 men to Robb's army, which seems very suspect. But be that as it may.

5. What you consider an ass-pull is of course irrelevant to what will or won't happen. Many would see the Skagosi backstory as a deliberate setup from Martin to explain both their ferocity in battle, and the reason why they did not respond to Robb's initial call up. And Rickon's presence there would be the perfect plot development to bring them into play. In fact, it is hard to see how Rickon's presence in Skagos could NOT bring the Skagosi into play. As for the bog devils, I have already addressed them in point 3 above.

6. Regarding the totals, Roose already brings 4000 Northmen up the causeway. Ramsay adds his 600 Dreadfort men, and say another 1000 Dustins and Ryswells. That brings us to 5600 men. Add the Umbers with Hother, and you get to 6000 Northmen already.  Add Stannis's 4000, and Arnolf's 450, and you are at 10,000, without Manderly.

As for additional heavy cavalry. We know the Cerwyns bring two dozen mounted lances to the Harvest feast. There is no indication that this is their full heavy cavalry contingent. Merely the honor guard Cley brings to Winterfell. If the Cerwyns, who committed heavily to the Stark cause, have more heavy cavalry left, why would the Flints of Widow's Watch, Flints of Flints Finger, Slates, Lockes, Ryswells, Dustins etc. not also have various reserves left?

Anyway, we don't actually know how many more Manderly has than Roose. He could well have 1500 heavy horse, for all we know. So all we are arguing about here is an absolute minimum number. And for that, 15000 Northmen in total is reached quite easily.

1. Meh. Given the timetable Stannis had to leave right after, but fine, not a big deal.

2. Not really, the Wild Hares for example were young men with relatively little training. Had they been actual knights or trained cavalry, at ages 18-19 they would be called so, not boys. 

And I give Manderly the minimum because we don't actually know much about the state of the fleet. Oarsmen can replace an oar for a spear, and make for about as good an infantry force as the bulk of what is currently going around in the North. But to have a large cavalry force and a large infantry force to match, and thousands more for the fleet would require at least ~10,000 people. I can see a scenario where Manderly has both a small army and a small navy. I can see a scenario where Manderly has to make a choice if he wants a fleet or if he wants a large army. I don't see a scenario where he has a large army and a fleet at 100% manpower. 

Manderly started with X. Since then Manderly has had to replenish ~1,500 manpower of his levies. He has suffered losses in Hornwood, in the attempt to retake Winterfell. If he wants the fleet and to have marines on it, that would come out of his infantry at least. So yeah, minimum army and I assume that the fleet is manned and would be used in the coming books. That still leaves open the option that Manderly is not going for a sunk costs fallacy, and is currently just holding the ships that he has no plan on using because he stripped them of manpower to be used in his army for the more pressing matter of retaking the North from the Boltons.

Notice that I also went with the bare minimum for Hightower, which by all rights should have far more than 6,000 men with a port city rivaling King's Landing and as much land (and generally more fertile too) and as many vassels as the Lannisters. With a 4,500 strong army and a fleet with 5-6k people Manderly already proves, even with incoming refugees from the Hornwood crisis, that he has far more manpower than any other lord in the North by a massive lead.

3. We have literally nothing regarding Crannogmen numbers. There could be 2,000 of them, there could be 20,000 of them, and there could be 200 of them. But again, there is no precedent for them being a military unit or ever leaving the Neck to join an army IIRC. 

4. We have Manderly with 4,500 more plus a couple years of recruitment. We have the Umbers with 400 men so far, we don't know about the faction under Crowfood, and that was the entire garrison aside of some cripples. The Karstarks as well took almost everything they had left. 

Regarding Dustin, with 1,000 troops left she has more than any other lord in the North left behind aside of Manderly. That by itself is not bad, and has no problem to work with what we know about Lady Dustin. Another option is that house Ryswell take thier lead from house Dustin. The house was only mentioned later in the books, it's not clear if they are a large house or not. The other houses mentioned with the Bolton army seem to have limited forces present. Hornwood, Cerwyn and Tallhart have suffered massive losses, and the bulk of what is left is marching with Stannis. House Locke takes it's lead from Mandery according to the man himself, so I would'nt take the presence of a handfull of Lockes to be a sizable force if Manderly only brought 300 men. House Slate has very little info, as does house Flint of Flint's Finger. Did the Flints join up before Moat Cailin to bring Roose's 3,500 up to 4,000? We have no idea. They were not present in Ramsay's host, but thier banners are seen later in Winterfell and they had to come up Moat Cailin. 

6. The Cerwyns are pretty much gone at this point, with remnants with both Roose and Stannis. Those two dozen lancers were likely in the force that was defeated in Winterfell, like Tallhart and Hornwood (who have even more reasons to be tapped out). Regarding the other houses - Flints of Widow's Watch are still unaccounted for. Flints of Flint's Finger are only mentioned in Winterfell, which suggests that they were already counted in Roose's 4,000 marching through Moat Cailin (again, seeing as they were not seen in Ramsay's host before the Bolton hosts met, nor did they sign his letter to Asha). I already gave the Dustins and Rywells far more than two dozen lancers (I gave them 150 each on average, extremely generous IMHO) to bump up the cavalry numbers to 2,500 horse. If both houses Flint, houses Locke and Slate have another dozen or two cavalry left, that would bump up the numbers to, what? A little over 2,600?

[Free Northman Reborn]

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason to doubt Theon's estimate of Roose having 5,000-6,000 men at Winterfell. Theon had more than enough time to actually get a good picture how many men actually were at Winterfell.

What we can question is whether Theon actually knows that the Boltons have more men than Stannis. Theon didn't have the chance to actually count Stannis' men since he arrived in his camp and was subsequently dragged to Stannis' tower, dangling there.

We also know the numbers of the people who died from the cold in Stannis' army. It was 5,000+ at Deepwood and right now it's the updated cold count (below 100, if I remember correctly) + the burned cannibals. He should still have 5,000+.

Manderlys 300 men at Winterfell are suspiciously low. He must be up to something. Perhaps - perhaps he has brought up another 500 or so men up the White Knife to Castle Cerwyn. One might assume that he would take precautions that the Freys do not leave the North alive. And if Manderly intended to make a deal with Stannis at Winterfell before the battle he actually would have to have men being able to contact him in advance. He could not possibly do that from inside Winterfell.

That is all good and well. All I'm saying is we know Roose brought at least 5500 men up the causeway, meaning he then already had more men than Stannis's 5000. So even without any Manderlys, Umbers, Ryswells, Dustins and the rest, he already had what Theon now estimates him to have.

So it simply means that, like I have always said, the Lords went to Winterfell to attend a wedding. With honor guards only. Not to assemble their full armies. Manderly does not even have one tenth of his strength at Winterfell. There is no reason why cautious lords like Lady Dustin and others did not do the same.

The gathering at Winterfell was never about assembling the full might of the North there. It was so that the Lords could bear witness to Ramsay's wedding to Arya. Given Theon's assessment of their current numbers, most lords brought similar kind of numbers than they did when attending the Harvest feast back in Clash of Kings. (The Umbers and Karstarks once again excluded).

As for Manderly, well, it has always been obvious that the vast majority of his forces are elsewhere.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Nyrhex said:

1. Meh. Given the timetable Stannis had to leave right after, but fine, not a big deal.

2. Not really, the Wild Hares for example were young men with relatively little training. Had they been actual knights or trained cavalry, at ages 18-19 they would be called so, not boys. 

And I give Manderly the minimum because we don't actually know much about the state of the fleet. Oarsmen can replace an oar for a spear, and make for about as good an infantry force as the bulk of what is currently going around in the North. But to have a large cavalry force and a large infantry force to match, and thousands more for the fleet would require at least ~10,000 people. I can see a scenario where Manderly has both a small army and a small navy. I can see a scenario where Manderly has to make a choice if he wants a fleet or if he wants a large army. I don't see a scenario where he has a large army and a fleet at 100% manpower. 

Manderly started with X. Since then Manderly has had to replenish ~1,500 manpower of his levies. He has suffered losses in Hornwood, in the attempt to retake Winterfell. If he wants the fleet and to have marines on it, that would come out of his infantry at least. So yeah, minimum army and I assume that the fleet is manned and would be used in the coming books. That still leaves open the option that Manderly is not going for a sunk costs fallacy, and is currently just holding the ships that he has no plan on using because he stripped them of manpower to be used in his army for the more pressing matter of retaking the North from the Boltons.

Notice that I also went with the bare minimum for Hightower, which by all rights should have far more than 6,000 men with a port city rivaling King's Landing and as much land (and generally more fertile too) and as many vassels as the Lannisters. With a 4,500 strong army and a fleet with 5-6k people Manderly already proves, even with incoming refugees from the Hornwood crisis, that he has far more manpower than any other lord in the North by a massive lead.

3. We have literally nothing regarding Crannogmen numbers. There could be 2,000 of them, there could be 20,000 of them, and there could be 200 of them. But again, there is no precedent for them being a military unit or ever leaving the Neck to join an army IIRC. 

4. We have Manderly with 4,500 more plus a couple years of recruitment. We have the Umbers with 400 men so far, we don't know about the faction under Crowfood, and that was the entire garrison aside of some cripples. The Karstarks as well took almost everything they had left. 

Regarding Dustin, with 1,000 troops left she has more than any other lord in the North left behind aside of Manderly. That by itself is not bad, and has no problem to work with what we know about Lady Dustin. Another option is that house Ryswell take thier lead from house Dustin. The house was only mentioned later in the books, it's not clear if they are a large house or not. The other houses mentioned with the Bolton army seem to have limited forces present. Hornwood, Cerwyn and Tallhart have suffered massive losses, and the bulk of what is left is marching with Stannis. House Locke takes it's lead from Mandery according to the man himself, so I would'nt take the presence of a handfull of Lockes to be a sizable force if Manderly only brought 300 men. House Slate has very little info, as does house Flint of Flint's Finger. Did the Flints join up before Moat Cailin to bring Roose's 3,500 up to 4,000? We have no idea. They were not present in Ramsay's host, but thier banners are seen later in Winterfell and they had to come up Moat Cailin. 

6. The Cerwyns are pretty much gone at this point, with remnants with both Roose and Stannis. Those two dozen lancers were likely in the force that was defeated in Winterfell, like Tallhart and Hornwood (who have even more reasons to be tapped out). Regarding the other houses - Flints of Widow's Watch are still unaccounted for. Flints of Flint's Finger are only mentioned in Winterfell, which suggests that they were already counted in Roose's 4,000 marching through Moat Cailin (again, seeing as they were not seen in Ramsay's host before the Bolton hosts met, nor did they sign his letter to Asha). I already gave the Dustins and Rywells far more than two dozen lancers (I gave them 150 each on average, extremely generous IMHO) to bump up the cavalry numbers to 2,500 horse. If both houses Flint, houses Locke and Slate have another dozen or two cavalry left, that would bump up the numbers to, what? A little over 2,600?

Ok, I like the how this discussion is taking place. Kudos in particular for your paragraph numbering system, which makes replying to particular points easier. I have never figured out how to break a quote up in chunks to reply to each part individually.

1. Like you say, no big deal. We are not talking about substantial differences here.

2. Sure. The Wild Hares were obviously rawer cavalry. They seem more like the spoiled younger sons of various petty lords and Landed knights, with their close companions. RIch enough to be given warhorses and lances, and obviously having trained in the yard since the age of 12 or whenever young rich kids do. And now off to have a wild adventure in immitation of the Young Wolf.

3. Again. Sure. I agree. That said, there are many scenarios where the Crannogmen can be a valuable part of the North's overall war effort. Whether it be defending the Neck, or launching stealth assaults on armies encamped just South of the Neck. Particularly around the Twins. So it's not like we can ignore counting their numbers, whatever they are.

4. Indeed we have very little info on the state of most of the Houses from the southern part of the North. It is noteworthy that none of the Slates, Lockes, Dustins, or Ryswells get much attention in the early books. It seems Martin only fleshed them out later in the story. Yet they are located in the warmest parts of the North, and the likes of the Dustins are clearly powerful Houses in their own right.

Anyway I dispute that no other Houses have 1000 men left. I think  the Dustins could have 2000 men left, and the likes of the Flints of Widows Watch (the most powerful Flint branch, apparently), 1500, the Ryswells 1500 and the Lockes around 1000 quite easily. The Skagosi 3000, the Reeds 2000, and so on. Of course we don't know any of these numbers. But they are certainly not disproven yet.

My point in my original post to you in this thread was simply to get to a minimum number of the North, without going into any of these extrapolations. And to point out that this minimum number is already 15000.