Varys and Illyrio's Con

[Edd fetch me the boo box]

I was thinking about Varys and what he wants. And then I thought of Illyrio and his old con(steal things from people, get hired to steal them back and return the item for money). 

Does anyone think maybe they're doing this on a large scale with the Targaryens? Steal their kingdom by leading them to their downfall, it is implied that Varys started Aerys's madness or really kicked it into gear, at least. Then, if you could find a real heir, great, if not, make one up, and help them reclaim their lands. 

The profit they'd reap is obvious, they'd have an extremely grateful king of an entire continent in their pocket. 

What do you think?

[Unknownfinger]

At his core I don't thing Varys is a thief that was just a means to and end. What Varys is a stone cold Utilitarian who wanted to create the perfect ruler by giving poor fAegon a perfect upbringing and hero myth origin story at the same time. In Varys mind all his actions are justified if they will place a competent, benevolent ruler on the throne. Viserys was always just a way do distract King Robert from their real plan. Dragons and the fact the Illyrio betrayed Varys by switching the real Aegon for his son have ruined this plan but that is what the plan was.   

[Lady Blizzardborn]

To agree with this I'd have to first agree that the whole thing IS a con. There's a definite possibility of that but it is by no means certain. I also think there's a good likelihood that Varys and Illyrio are not actually on the same page, and one is going to double-cross the other.

There's no actual evidence that Varys was instrumental in the downfall of House Targaryen. Ned's thinking that the rot in Aerys' reign started with him only tells us Ned's opinion and Ned was not in King's Landing back then, so he's been listening to rumors. The actual facts that are known indicate that Varys did the job he was hired to do, which was what a Hand to Aerys would do if he wanted to avoid being barbecued.

Varys hedges his bets a lot, and always has back-up plans. Dany, Viserys, and Aegon were all part of his various plans. More candidates for the throne gives a greater chance of one of them actually ending up on the thing in the end.

Added factor: I believe Varys may have Targaryen blood himself either through a bastard of Aerion Targaryen or through his son Maegor, which gives him a possibility for purity of motive in wanting his family back on the throne.

However I must conceded that yes that is a longshot possibility. Having gotten Aegon out of KL, or come up with a decent stunt double, and trusting Ser Willem to get Viserys to safety (Dany was an added bonus, since she wasn't planned), they could well have hoped they'd be able to put one of the boys on the throne in the future, especially as Robert Baratheon was named king. Anyone who was around Robert in KL probably saw the writing on the wall with him before he was very far into his reign.

 

[BalerionTheCat]

Not only Varys helped Aerys madness. He also made it difficult for Rhaegar to depose his father. The same strategy he is using now with Cersei. But the first blow to Aerys' mental health was a few years before, with the Defiance of Duskendale. Some blame the affair on Lady Serala, the wife of Lord Darklyn, a woman from Myr, a place between Pentos and Lys. Everything seems connected to Illirio. And if Elia and her children were in the RK, not at Dragonstone with Rhaella and Viserys, it was because the king was suspicious a treason from Dorne. But who could have given this idea to the Mad King, if not his spy master?

To put a fake Aegon on the throne, Varys needed 3 deaths: Aerys, Rhaegar, and the true Aegon. What did he get?

But why a cheese monger would do all that? If not to put his son on Westeros' throne!

[Lady Blizzardborn]

1 hour ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Not only Varys helped Aerys madness. He also made it difficult for Rhaegar to depose his father. The same strategy he is using now with Cersei. But the first blow to Aerys' mental health was a few years before, with the Defiance of Duskendale. Some blame the affair on Lady Serala, the wife of Lord Darklyn, a woman from Myr, a place between Pentos and Lys. Everything seems connected to Illirio. And if Elia and her children were in the RK, not at Dragonstone with Rhaella and Viserys, it was because the king was suspicious a treason from Dorne. But who could have given this idea to the Mad King, if not his spy master?

To put a fake Aegon on the throne, Varys needed 3 deaths: Aerys, Rhaegar, and the true Aegon. What did he get?

But why a cheese monger would do all that? If not to put his son on Westeros' throne!

Back that up with facts, please.  We have no actual evidence that Varys did a thing to make Aerys worse. He told the king about potential plots against him. Which was his JOB.  Remember, Varys was there for the disposal of several Hands of the King. Lackluster job performance was literally a death sentence in Aerys' court.

Rhaegar was going to depose his father when he got back from the Trident. It's not Varys' fault that Prince Emo died instead of winning. He could not have foreseen Rhaegar's death at Robert's hands.

Aerys was crazy, not a total idiot. He didn't need anyone to tell him that Elia's family might be angry as hell that Rhaegar ran off with that Stark girl, and join the rebellion. 

Curiously, we don't have proof of the true Aegon's death. The smashed face, which Varys could not possibly have arranged, was planted in the first book deliberately to allow for the possibility that Aegon's stunt double was the one killed. And GRRM has not been willing to confirm that Aegon died. He has said unequivocally that Rhaenys died, but not her baby brother.

Power and money. Illyrio has gone as far as he can in Pentos. A government position in Westeros under a new regime would suit him nicely. Not to mention perhaps getting every Essosi cheese import contract with the Iron Throne for the rest of his life.

[aryagonnakill#2]

My problem with this theory(it has been proposed before) is that Ilyrio seems unimaginably wealthy already.  He gives dragon eggs as gifts, buys off the richest people in Volantis, while simultaneously controlling the GC and Pentos.  I just don't see how having the King of westeros owe you could really benefit Ilyrio, since he has no heir(supposedly) to pass any of his wealth to, having more than he can possibly spend already should mean that there is no long con to get even more wealth and power.

That leaves us with Aegon being Ilyrio's son and Varys nephew.  It is the only explanation for the motive

[Adam_Up_Bxtch]

Yeah Aegon being Vary's nephew and Illyrio's son would really explain well why they are going through all this trouble to get him on the throne. Riches can't be what they are after, Illyrio already has all the riches he could ask for.

I'm in the thought that fAegon (and Varys) is a blackfyre and that he is a descendant from the lost female line. Since Varys can't produce heirs his nephew taking it would seem like the most logical choice in his eyes.

[BalerionTheCat]

54 minutes ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Back that up with facts, please. 

I'm essentially stating facts. And raising some questions. OK, I give my answers too.

Rhaegar wished to depose his father. He told it to Jaime:

"When this battle’s done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but ... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken.

I extrapolate the "..." are Varys.

And then from Barristan:

With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent’s tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together.

We have not even proofs it was true. But Varys was actively preventing Rhaegar. In fact Rhaegar's "long ago" suggests Varys was inventing and "maddening" the king.

From the beginning Ned had strong suspicions about Varys. Maybe it was just because he is an eunuch, a spy, maybe because he remembers something.

"The Lord Varys was born a slave in Lys, did you know? Put not your trust in spiders, my lord."
That was scarcely anything Ned needed to be told; there was something about Varys that made his flesh crawl.

Do you have evidences Illirio wants nothing more than selling cheeses?

[Lost Melnibonean]

A lot of folks believe that is exactly the game they are playing. And if the pisswater switcheroo were real, it would fit nicely with the pattern, right? 

[BalerionTheCat]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

A lot of folks believe that is exactly the game they are playing. And if the pisswater switcheroo were real, it would fit nicely with the pattern, right? 

Leading House Targaryen to the ruin, but saving their last child would not make much sense. IMO, Illirio would be much more motivated if Aegon was his own child. And why not shelter or kill Viserys and Daenrys? Why left them beggars? Until Aegon was ready and the kingdom ripe.

[Lost Melnibonean]

14 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Leading House Targaryen to the ruin, but saving their last child would not make much sense. IMO, Illirio would be much more motivated if Aegon was his own child. And why not shelter or kill Viserys and Daenrys? Why left them beggars? Until Aegon was ready and the kingdom ripe.

Absolutely, but unless Aegon is the son of Rhaegar, the analogy is off, no? If he is Rhaegar's son, they stole him from the realm, and now they are selling him back. Illyrio's tale to Tyrion didn't describe finding folks who'd had stuff stolen and then selling them bogus goods. 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

7 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I'm essentially stating facts. And raising some questions. OK, I give my answers too.

Rhaegar wished to depose his father. He told it to Jaime:

"When this battle’s done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but ... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken.

I extrapolate the "..." are Varys.

And then from Barristan:

With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent’s tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together.

We have not even proofs it was true. But Varys was actively preventing Rhaegar. In fact Rhaegar's "long ago" suggests Varys was inventing and "maddening" the king.

From the beginning Ned had strong suspicions about Varys. Maybe it was just because he is an eunuch, a spy, maybe because he remembers something.

"The Lord Varys was born a slave in Lys, did you know? Put not your trust in spiders, my lord."
That was scarcely anything Ned needed to be told; there was something about Varys that made his flesh crawl.

Do you have evidences Illirio wants nothing more than selling cheeses?

You extrapolate and you assume. Which is fine. We all do that. But that doesn't increase any of our chances of being right. It's possible that you've hit the nail on the head here. It's equally possible that you haven't. 

Rhaegar's not doing it long ago might not have a thing to do with Varys, who is a relative newcomer to the whole mess (he certainly wasn't around as far back as Duskendale). Rhaegar's been watching his father go downhill for quite a while and apparently been thinking about deposing him for quite some time. The hiring of Varys itself is a symptom of the madness that is keeping Aerys from trusting anybody local. 

If you were hired by Aerys II to keep him up to speed on plots against him, and you'd seen what had happened to servants who displeased him, and you had some pretty solid evidence that someone, even the prince, was conspiring to depose your boss, would you withhold that evidence? Granted, you're not Varys. None of us are. But running down conspiracies against the throne is the whole reason he was hired.

The quote from Barristan's POV combined with the one from Jaime's rather strongly implies that Rhaegar WAS planning to depose Aerys. But does Barristan actually know what Varys "whispered" in the king's ear? Or is he guessing? Or maybe he's ruminating on the gossip of the day? The potential Harrenhal conspiracy could have existed without Rhaegar's involvement.

I love Ned. I really do. But he's not the best when it comes to sniffing out who the villains are. He trusted Littlefinger. He didn't think as far as Cersei outflanking him. He didn't even tell Renly the truth about Joff, Myrcella, and Tommen.  Varys' entire persona as the spider is calculated to make people uncomfortable. It's part of his thing and it enables him to go unrecognized in other guises, like as the jailer he pretended to be to try and help Ned.

You forgot that I mentioned a position in the Westerosi government as a possible motive for Illyrio as well. Evidence? Not a bit. Nobody does when it comes to Illyrio, and that's by GRRM's design. If he wanted us to know what was up with the cheesemonger, he would have given us more to work with. What we know about Illyrio is that he likes money, he likes influence, he goes way back with Varys, and he's on the wrong side of the current Pentoshi royals. 99% of the rest of what comes up in discussing him is pure speculation, my statements included.

[gregg22]

I was actually reading this chapter in Dance today by chance. We learn of the "con" from Illiryo telling Tyrion about it. Tyrion is wondering about his true motivations, and knows he lying throughout the conversation.

Basically, I think Illiryo is trying to mislead Tyrion, and hoping he will reach the same conclusion that the OP just did. He says outright that Viserys was going to make him Master of Coin. (Tyrion is not buying it) He spoke about their con, and Varys rise, and Mad King hearing about his talents, and "you know the rest"

Tyrion is not convinced though. He knows there is more. It doesnt make sense when you think about it. If Varys had that kind of influence, he could have gotten Aerys to make Illiryo MoC long ago. Or gotten him whatever else he wanted.

There is one interesting irony though. Varys went from being a thief, to spying on the thieves, so the victims came to them to get their stuff back. Yet, if R+L=J, then somebody stole and hid a Targaryan heir, and Varys and Illiryo seem oblivious.

 

[Adam_Up_Bxtch]

5 minutes ago, gregg22 said:

I was actually reading this chapter in Dance today by chance. We learn of the "con" from Illiryo telling Tyrion about it. Tyrion is wondering about his true motivations, and knows he lying throughout the conversation.

Basically, I think Illiryo is trying to mislead Tyrion, and hoping he will reach the same conclusion that the OP just did. He says outright that Viserys was going to make him Master of Coin. (Tyrion is not buying it) He spoke about their con, and Varys rise, and Mad King hearing about his talents, and "you know the rest"

Tyrion is not convinced though. He knows there is more. It doesnt make sense when you think about it. If Varys had that kind of influence, he could have gotten Aerys to make Illiryo MoC long ago. Or gotten him whatever else he wanted.

There is one interesting irony though. Varys went from being a thief, to spying on the thieves, so the victims came to them to get their stuff back. Yet, if R+L=J, then somebody stole and hid a Targaryan heir, and Varys and Illiryo seem oblivious.

 

Its kind of ironic that Eddard Stark, one of (if not THE) the most honorable and honest men in the Kindgom managed to fool everyone and successfully hid a Targaryen heir (also helps that Jon was born with Stark features, if it wasn't for that this deception may have been dead in the water and Ned may have had to smuggle Jon out of Westeros). I don't know how Varys and LF didn't try to question Ned's bastard. I guess maybe LF wanted to believe it so it would be a great dishonor on Ned's part towards Cat and created friction between the two of them, or LF does suspect Jon ain't Ned's but wants to keep that as a potential ultimate trump card or he doesn't have enough evidence to prove it.

[Dorian Martell]

13 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Back that up with facts, please.  We have no actual evidence that Varys did a thing to make Aerys worse. He told the king about potential plots against him. Which was his JOB.  Remember, Varys was there for the disposal of several Hands of the King. Lackluster job performance was literally a death sentence in Aerys' court.

Rhaegar was going to depose his father when he got back from the Trident. It's not Varys' fault that Prince Emo died instead of winning. He could not have foreseen Rhaegar's death at Robert's hands.

Aerys was crazy, not a total idiot. He didn't need anyone to tell him that Elia's family might be angry as hell that Rhaegar ran off with that Stark girl, and join the rebellion. 

Curiously, we don't have proof of the true Aegon's death. The smashed face, which Varys could not possibly have arranged, was planted in the first book deliberately to allow for the possibility that Aegon's stunt double was the one killed. And GRRM has not been willing to confirm that Aegon died. He has said unequivocally that Rhaenys died, but not her baby brother.

Power and money. Illyrio has gone as far as he can in Pentos. A government position in Westeros under a new regime would suit him nicely. Not to mention perhaps getting every Essosi cheese import contract with the Iron Throne for the rest of his life.

`Your logic will not assuage the tinfoil faction of these forums 

12 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

My problem with this theory(it has been proposed before) is that Ilyrio seems unimaginably wealthy already.  He gives dragon eggs as gifts, buys off the richest people in Volantis, while simultaneously controlling the GC and Pentos.  I just don't see how having the King of westeros owe you could really benefit Ilyrio, since he has no heir(supposedly) to pass any of his wealth to, having more than he can possibly spend already should mean that there is no long con to get even more wealth and power.

That leaves us with Aegon being Ilyrio's son and Varys nephew.  It is the only explanation for the motive

He had his real power taken away when he married a whore.  Aegon could have very well been raised for a time in the manse, in effect being the closest thing to a son Illyrio ever had. That would explain the affection. 

7 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Leading House Targaryen to the ruin, but saving their last child would not make much sense. IMO, Illirio would be much more motivated if Aegon was his own child. And why not shelter or kill Viserys and Daenrys? Why left them beggars? Until Aegon was ready and the kingdom ripe.

Exactly. Varys was not responsible for the kings madness, but he is still doing his Job to restore the rightful king to the realm 

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Absolutely, but unless Aegon is the son of Rhaegar, the analogy is off, no. If he is Rhaegar's son, they stole him from the realm, and now they are selling him back. Illyrio's tale to Tyrion didn't describe finding folks who'd had stuff stolen and them seeing them bogus goods. 

He is being raised by a man who was in love with his father. A total lack of similarities would be obvious to JonCon, who probably thought about Rhaegar when he fapped.  Aegon is the real deal 

[Lady Barbrey]

I'm going to agree with the posters on here who think there is more to it, OP, though that may be part of it.  I think they are in it for a few different reasons, money and power included, but I can't help but think that revenge is the strongest motive.  In the show, a great deal was made about Varys and how long he was prepared to wait to avenge himself on the sorceror that burnt his privates.  The show isn't following the same plotline but it's interesting to me they made a point of emphasizing something the books have not yet made plain to us: Varys will wait, will plot, for a long time to get revenge.

I think the Blackfyre speculation is the correct one: Varys likely regards himself right now as the true king of Westeros (remember that the Blackfyres believed they were the true heirs), hiding in plain sight in order to maneouver a blood relative (his own son or a nephew) onto the throne, and avenging himself at the same time on the families that fought against the Blackfyres. It's a bait and switch.  He's crowning the boy he believes is the "true king" precisely because of his Blackfyre heritage (and he might be right for all we know; Daeron was widely thought to be illegitimate).  Varys has played Merlin here, bringing up Aegon like Merlin brought up Arthur with the right education both secular and moral. As for Illyrio, he could be Aegon's father, or simply Varys's best friend.  They both could be children of the Ninepenny Kings and some old pact has come into play.  Whatever the case, he's doing something for revenge too - those hands in their box hint at something sinister.  We don't know for sure what their motives are, but my suspicion, like Tyrion's, is that they're in it for more than money. Revenge for the Blackfyre deaths and what they would regard as dispossession from their rightful throne, a Blackfyre on the thone, and complete control of Westeros through it. That's what I think they're playing for.  

 

 

[aryagonnakill#2]

12 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

`Your logic will not assuage the tinfoil faction of these forums 

He had his real power taken away when he married a whore.  Aegon could have very well been raised for a time in the manse, in effect being the closest thing to a son Illyrio ever had. That would explain the affection. 

Exactly. Varys was not responsible for the kings madness, but he is still doing his Job to restore the rightful king to the realm 

He is being raised by a man who was in love with his father. A total lack of similarities would be obvious to JonCon, who probably thought about Rhaegar when he fapped.  Aegon is the real deal 

For a time, but he has gotten it all back and more.  He is at the highest position of power in Pentos, controls the GC, bribes Triarchs of Volantis, and gives away dragon eggs.

The boy living in his manse might explain some affection, but not what he was doing in his home in the first place.  Nor does any of it explain Varys motive.  Why even become master of whispers in the first place for Aerys, to what end?

[BalerionTheCat]

18 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

But that doesn't increase any of our chances of being right.

Of course. It changes nothing to what GRRM will write (or has already written).

18 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Rhaegar's not doing it long ago might not have a thing to do with Varys, who is a relative newcomer to the whole mess (he certainly wasn't around as far back as Duskendale). Rhaegar's been watching his father go downhill for quite a while and apparently been thinking about deposing him for quite some time.

Exactly. A son, a daughter, a close relative, are the best placed to detect mental illness in an ageing person. But Rhaegar was the only one who could do something. The "long ago" could have been before Varys. But his father was not mad enough for everyone to see it. And later, with Varys, it was no more possible.

18 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

If you were hired by Aerys II to keep him up to speed on plots against him, and you'd seen what had happened to servants who displeased him, and you had some pretty solid evidence that someone, even the prince, was conspiring to depose your boss, would you withhold that evidence?

The king was mad. Anyone, even you, could be his next victim. And you have someone who can and is willing to remedy this. I would not hesitate one second to take side with Rhaegar. Another "proof" Varys was either mad, or came with a specific purpose. Which could be to destroy the Targaryens. From TWoIaF:

...but Prince Jaehaerys died later that same year, plunging Aerys into despair. In his black rage, he decided the babe’s wet nurse was to blame and had the woman beheaded. Not long after, in a change of heart, Aerys announced that Jaehaerys had been poisoned by his own mistress, the pretty young daughter of one of his household knights. The king had the girl and all her kin tortured to death.

You can't work in a place like that. You leave or you do something.

[Masha]

18 hours ago, Adam_Up_Bxtch said:

Its kind of ironic that Eddard Stark, one of (if not THE) the most honorable and honest men in the Kindgom managed to fool everyone and successfully hid a Targaryen heir (also helps that Jon was born with Stark features, if it wasn't for that this deception may have been dead in the water and Ned may have had to smuggle Jon out of Westeros). I don't know how Varys and LF didn't try to question Ned's bastard. I guess maybe LF wanted to believe it so it would be a great dishonor on Ned's part towards Cat and created friction between the two of them, or LF does suspect Jon ain't Ned's but wants to keep that as a potential ultimate trump card or he doesn't have enough evidence to prove it.

Its more of effect that bad men tend to think badly about others intentions. LF and Varys were ready to believe the worst of Ned, and Westerosi High Lord siring a bastard during the war is such a common thing, they didn't even think twice about Jon. LF met Ned maybe once and he probably was comparing him to Brandon, whom he hated and who was wild and probably would have had a lot of Bastards given a chance, and Varys was associating him with Robert, his best friend, who did sire lots of bastards.

14 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

 

He is being raised by a man who was in love with his father. A total lack of similarities would be obvious to JonCon, who probably thought about Rhaegar when he fapped.  Aegon is the real deal 

Not really.  What JonCon got was a child with Valyrian features that matches the Targaeryens. Any discrepancy that JonCon might have noticed in the looks and personality, he would attribute to fAegon being a child and having a Dornish mother. By the time fAegon grew out of his childish looks (around 14+), JonCons memory would have dimmed enough to loosen sharp memories of Rhaegar's face, and he probably replaces subconsciously some of his memories of Rhaegar's looks and voice details with fAegon's. After all, even sharpest memory without photographic evidence forgets faces they haven't see for 14+ years. All JonCon remembers are certain details - like a tone of voice, a color of heir in the sunlight, the look in the eyes... etc. 

[BricksAndSparrows]

On 7/23/2016 at 3:30 PM, Edd fetch me the boo box said:

I was thinking about Varys and what he wants. And then I thought of Illyrio and his old con(steal things from people, get hired to steal them back and return the item for money). 

Does anyone think maybe they're doing this on a large scale with the Targaryens? Steal their kingdom by leading them to their downfall, it is implied that Varys started Aerys's madness or really kicked it into gear, at least. Then, if you could find a real heir, great, if not, make one up, and help them reclaim their lands. 

The profit they'd reap is obvious, they'd have an extremely grateful king of an entire continent in their pocket. 

What do you think?

I like this idea...