Varys and Illyrio's Con

[HallowedMarcus]

On ‎24‎/‎07‎/‎2016 at 11:48 AM, BalerionTheCat said:

He also made it difficult for Rhaegar to depose his father.

In fact that’s true. Varys let the mad King know that probably his son Rhaegar that his son was about to take over if he did not go to the Harrenhal Tournament. I recall POV where Sir Barristan Selme recalling about him trying to take over and that the Sword of the Morning, Arthur Dayne was his biggest supporter.

Varys never wanted to betray the Targaryens because he believed that their House brought peace and security to the realm. That is probably his objective to keep and when gone to bring back stability to the realm. Strange that he then told the Mad King about it. Probably he did not see the possibility of chaos that would happen weeks after the Harrenhal Tournament when Rhaegar took Lysanna.

As far as I know Varys likes the Targaryen House and respect it more than any other. Considering that his objective now is to restore the Targaryen. Remember that he and his Pentos friend were talking about the wolf going for the Lion`s throat and that chaos and war could not happen until the Dothraki were ready to invade. (Arya heard it).

Varys wants the Targaryen back with Viserys, with Aegon (fake or not), with Daenerys, if she comes and with any other that claim a Targaryen name. I doubt he ever wanted to destroy the Targaryen Dynasty.

15 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

Varys was not responsible for the kings madness, but he is still doing his Job to restore the rightful king to the realm 

I totally agree

[Dorian Martell]

7 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

For a time, but he has gotten it all back and more.  He is at the highest position of power in Pentos, controls the GC, bribes Triarchs of Volantis, and gives away dragon eggs.

The boy living in his manse might explain some affection, but not what he was doing in his home in the first place.  Nor does any of it explain Varys motive.  Why even become master of whispers in the first place for Aerys, to what end?

He has great wealth yes, but his political power in pentos is gone, being shut out of the princes palace forever. 

5 hours ago, Masha said:

Not really.  What JonCon got was a child with Valyrian features that matches the Targaeryens. Any discrepancy that JonCon might have noticed in the looks and personality, he would attribute to fAegon being a child and having a Dornish mother. By the time fAegon grew out of his childish looks (around 14+), JonCons memory would have dimmed enough to loosen sharp memories of Rhaegar's face, and he probably replaces subconsciously some of his memories of Rhaegar's looks and voice details with fAegon's. After all, even sharpest memory without photographic evidence forgets faces they haven't see for 14+ years. All JonCon remembers are certain details - like a tone of voice, a color of heir in the sunlight, the look in the eyes... etc. 

Yes really.  Much ado is made of familial appearance. Arya being headstrong and looking like her aunt Lyanna, who is also headstrong, or how Brienne has to do a double take when she meets Gendry because he looks exactly like Renly due to his Baratheon heritage. So, not being the  Author, you don't get to say how much Joncon remembers.  

[Lady Blizzardborn]

8 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

<snip

The king was mad. Anyone, even you, could be his next victim. And you have someone who can and is willing to remedy this. I would not hesitate one second to take side with Rhaegar. Another "proof" Varys was either mad, or came with a specific purpose. Which could be to destroy the Targaryens. From TWoIaF:

...but Prince Jaehaerys died later that same year, plunging Aerys into despair. In his black rage, he decided the babe’s wet nurse was to blame and had the woman beheaded. Not long after, in a change of heart, Aerys announced that Jaehaerys had been poisoned by his own mistress, the pretty young daughter of one of his household knights. The king had the girl and all her kin tortured to death.

You can't work in a place like that. You leave or you do something.

You're still assuming that Varys was working against Rhaegar, without anything concrete to that effect. Varys could have been working with Rhaegar and keeping him informed of his father's condition. 

Let me ask you this: if Varys was working against all the Targaryens, then why was he the one begging Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin Lannister?  If I were trying to take down a regime, in this situation, I'd do what Pycelle did. I would say "hey look, he's here to save us all, let him in" knowing full well that it wasn't remotely true.

If you're looking for someone who wanted to take down the Targs, Pycelle fits the bill much better. He served briefly under Aegon V, through all of Jaehaerys II's reign, and Aerys'. He would have been the one who attended Princess/Queen Rhaella during every one of her pregnancies, and no doubt had easy access to all the babies who managed to survive to delivery. When Aerys was rescued from Duskendale, who do you think treated him for any injuries? And while Aerys went through nurses and mistresses, and even Hands like candy, Pycelle somehow managed to stay alive all that time. He was there long before Varys and had far more opportunity to mess with things. Everyone suspects a spymaster might be up to something, but who would suspect a humble Grand Maester?

By the end of the Rebellion Pycelle had been in service to House Targaryen for 24 years. Duskendale occurred 6 years before the end of the Rebellion, so Varys can't have been there for more than 5, and given that our information tells us that it was mounting paranoia that motivated Aerys to hire Varys (the man didn't trust his son, wife, or Hand), it's a relatively safe bet that he wasn't there during the first half of that 5 years. I have to say if Varys pulled off the almost total destruction of a house that had reigned for nearly three centuries in fewer than three years, I'd be seriously impressed. That takes major villain skills. Even Littlefinger can't work that fast.

ETA: If (and that's a big if) the wiki chronology in the Aerys II article is correct, Varys was hired sometime after Steffon and Cassana Baratheon died. Their deaths were in 278, the year after Duskendale. This is consistent with the 5 year maximum I suggested for Varys' tenure at Aerys' court.

[Masha]

13 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

Yes really.  Much ado is made of familial appearance. Arya being headstrong and looking like her aunt Lyanna, who is also headstrong, or how Brienne has to do a double take when she meets Gendry because he looks exactly like Renly due to his Baratheon heritage. So, not being the  Author, you don't get to say how much Joncon remembers.  

Except Brienne last saw Gendry less than a year ago, and Arya looks like her father who looks like his sister Lyanna.

JonCon haven't seen Rhaegar for over 15 years! At best he has a small painted miniature. If you are saying he remembers exactly how Rhaegar's face looks picture perfect and not just looking over silver-gold heir in the wind, eye color deep purple in a certain light, which is all he is thinking about, you are implying very strong in-human memory for him.  You can find so many time when someone is talking about a person they loved deeply and then they confess that they can't precisely remember their faces anymore after 10 or more years.

 

[TheDemonicStark]

I think Aegon is really Aegon, but he also might be crazy. Gods always flip a coin when it comes to Targs. This could also be what is meant by Quiath, (that right spelling?) who I don't trust whatsoever. Something about her trying to get Dany to Asshai unsettles me.

[Dorian Martell]

2 hours ago, Masha said:

Except Brienne last saw Gendry less than a year ago, and Arya looks like her father who looks like his sister Lyanna.

JonCon haven't seen Rhaegar for over 15 years! At best he has a small painted miniature. If you are saying he remembers exactly how Rhaegar's face looks picture perfect and not just looking over silver-gold heir in the wind, eye color deep purple in a certain light, which is all he is thinking about, you are implying very strong in-human memory for him.  You can find so many time when someone is talking about a person they loved deeply and then they confess that they can't precisely remember their faces anymore after 10 or more years.

 

Have you had a truly unrequited love? One that you were desperately in love with yet you knew you could never be with them, for whatever reason. All you have of them is the images in your mind. So yes, JonCon would remember Rhaegar, and be able to identify his son. Besides, the question of (f)Aegon's identity will never be resolved. I am sure he will die before any question of his origins can be addressed by characters or authors 

[Lost Melnibonean]

I have two boys and a girl, and two nephews and two nieces. My oldest boy and my girl look very much like one of their cousins, my oldest niece, who is nearly grown and could pass for a few years older than she is. And although my other son bears a family resemblance to my other two kids, the other three kids really don't. But if my little girl were to slip away, into the House of Black and White for 15 years, and if you tried to pass off my niece as my daughter (actually a younger version of my niece), I would likely believe you. She is actually my wife's niece, and many of the ladies in my father-in-law's family share the look. So, I really don't think it would be implausible to fool Jon Connington, a man who might have seen baby Aegon just a very few times with a distant cousin who has the right look, especially one born to a mother bred in Lys to reflect Targaryen features. 

[Masha]

51 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I have two boys and a girl, and two nephews and two nieces. My oldest boy and my girl look very much like one of their cousins, my oldest niece, who is nearly grown and could pass for a few years older than she is. And although my other son bears a family resemblance to my other two kids, the other three kids really don't. But if my little girl were to slip away, into the House of Black and White for 15 years, and if you tried to pass off my niece as my daughter (actually a younger version of my niece), I would likely believe you. She is actually my wife's niece, and many of the ladies in my father-in-law's family share the look. So, I really don't think it would be implausible to fool Jon Connington, a man who might have seen baby Aegon just a very few times with a distant cousin who has the right look, especially one born to a mother bred in Lys to reflect Targaryen features. 

Indeed. Since all JonCon seem to remember is Rhaegar's flowing silver heir and deep purple eyes, there are no other distinguishing features he has, so any kid with right coloring will fool JonCon.

The truer question will be, would he ever recognize Jon Snow as Rhaegar's son if they met, since Jon doesn't have the right coloring but his character and probably features of face (shape, etc) is Rhaegar's or all of his his unrequited love only comes down to basic Targaeryen looks - silver/purple.   

[BalerionTheCat]

15 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

You're still assuming that Varys was working against Rhaegar, without anything concrete to that effect. Varys could have been working with Rhaegar and keeping him informed of his father's condition.

Have you any evidence Varys was working for Rhaegar? We practically know he was whispering against his son in the king's ears. You may dismiss Barristan as a fool on this matter. But then you are making multiple assumptions, against every bit of the story.

15 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Let me ask you this: if Varys was working against all the Targaryens, then why was he the one begging Aerys not to open the gates to Tywin Lannister?

I already gave an answer, suggestion, to that before. KL would have fallen, with or without opening the gates. The only difference is, an assault is bloodier, the assailants more likely to kill indiscriminately. The fact is, the taking was bloody anyway. But Varys' way would have been worse still, and more likely to be fatal for Aegon.

15 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

If you're looking for someone who wanted to take down the Targs, Pycelle fits the bill much better.

Pycelle was Tywin's man. But he achieved very little in that.

15 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Varys was hired sometime after Steffon and Cassana Baratheon died. Their deaths were in 278, the year after Duskendale. This is consistent with the 5 year maximum I suggested for Varys' tenure at Aerys' court.

Yes. Duskendale was before Varys' tenure. It doesn't mean Illrio and Varys were not complotting before, in cruder way, to the fall of the Targaryens. Just idle speculation on my part on the presence of a Myr woman in the Duskendale defiance, and the why of the affair.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

3 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Have you any evidence Varys was working for Rhaegar? We practically know he was whispering against his son in the king's ears. You may dismiss Barristan as a fool on this matter. But then you are making multiple assumptions, against every bit of the story.

I already gave an answer, suggestion, to that before. KL would have fallen, with or without opening the gates. The only difference is, an assault is bloodier, the assailants more likely to kill indiscriminately. The fact is, the taking was bloody anyway. But Varys' way would have been worse still, and more likely to be fatal for Aegon.

Pycelle was Tywin's man. But he achieved very little in that.

Yes. Duskendale was before Varys' tenure. It doesn't mean Illrio and Varys were not complotting before, in cruder way, to the fall of the Targaryens. Just idle speculation on my part on the presence of a Myr woman in the Duskendale defiance, and the why of the affair.

No more than you do that Varys was working against him.

I'm not dismissing Barristan as a fool. Just saying he is not necessarily speaking from personal observation. I'm not making any assumptions that go against the story. Barristan can confirm for us that Varys was whispering in the king's ear, but unless he has super-human hearing he can't say what Varys was telling Aerys. Ned can't confirm anything about Varys because he wasn't at court back then. People saying that Varys was the problem goes along nicely with people saying that Jon Snow is Ned's son or saying that Ashara Dayne killed herself. It could be true, but it could also be deliberate misdirection from the author--who seems to enjoy surprising his readers.

I think I'm missing something. How does not letting Tywin sack the city end up being worse, and more likely to end with little Aegon dead?

Pycelle achieved a great deal in his 41 years of being a mole for Twyin.

That's true. I and V could still have been plotting before, but not nearly as efficiently as they weren't anywhere near King's Landing. Varys is from Lys, not Myr. But the Free cities have gotten involved in Targ matters before, as Targs have gotten involved in matters of the Free Cities before, starting with Aegon I.

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

I thought everyone knew this!!!!

It definitely helped shape Illyrios character for me. Bc as someone else Pointed out GRRM intentionally left so little on the bone 

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

Still amazed by the fact they hooked Tyrion up in such a desperate time of need. Varys definitely misjudged the dwarf. I think the whole reference of Tyrion's shadow looming over the iron throne is talking about Faegon/Dany ADWD 2.0

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, One-eyed Misbehavin said:

Still amazed by the fact they hooked Tyrion up in such a desperate time of need. Varys definitely misjudged the dwarf. I think the whole reference of Tyrion's shadow looming over the iron throne is talking about Faegon/Dany ADWD 2.0

I agree. Consider this...

Quote

One green eye and one black one peered out from under a lank fall of hair so blond it seemed white.

And this...

Quote

There was hunger in his green eye, it seemed to her, and fury in the black.

And this...

Quote

“Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all.”

House Targaryen (old) and House Blackfyre (young), true (Daenerys) and false (Aegon), bright (red) and dark (black), 

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I agree. Consider this...

And this...

And this...

House Targaryen (old) and House Blackfyre (young), true (Daenerys) and false (Aegon), bright (red) and dark (black), 

I've actually always found it odd GRRM used "snarling" as the key word when he easily could have said "standing" or even "laughing". It implies a darker/more sinister dealing concerning the Iron Throne in our near future. IMO obviously, kinda just feels like an easy foreshadowing. But everytime I think of Tyrion its with that quote.

 

[Lost Melnibonean]

8 hours ago, One-eyed Misbehavin said:

I've actually always found it odd GRRM used "snarling" as the key word when he easily could have said "standing" or even "laughing". It implies a darker/more sinister dealing concerning the Iron Throne in our near future. IMO obviously, kinda just feels like an easy foreshadowing. But everytime I think of Tyrion its with that quote.

 

Assuming Aegon is The Blackfyre, and assuming that he allies with Daenerys at first as Tyrion predicted, it is very easy to see how the three treasons Daenerys will know will hit all at once: Illyrio for the blood of House Blackfyre, Tyrion for all the gold of Casterly Rock, and Aegon for love of Arianne, or maybe Sansa. 

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

2 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Assuming Aegon is The Blackfyre, and assuming that he allies with Daenerys at first as Tyrion predicted, it is very easy to see how the three treasons Daenerys will know will hit all at once: Illyrio for the blood of House Blackfyre, Tyrion for all the gold of Casterly Rock, and Aegon for love of Arianne, or maybe Sansa. 

Very nice. 

[BalerionTheCat]

20 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

It could be true, but it could also be deliberate misdirection from the author--who seems to enjoy surprising his readers.

Curious. Usually I'm the one having the devious reading of the books. At least 99% of the readers think very little of the Blackfyres. Believe Varys did his job with Aerys. Later with Robert. And now is seeking a better king for his employment. It is only us, who have read everything, who have read the forums, who spend too much time thinking about ASoIaF, with too much time between the books, and thinking how much GRRM himself is devious, who have these crazy ideas. And you believe GRRM has laid out subtle misdirections, so we can speculate something wrong, so that the 99% who never thought about it, were right from the start. There was no secret story, contrary to some subtile suggestions, making much more sense of the poor Visery's enterprise, maybe of Dorne too. Strange.

20 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

I think I'm missing something. How does not letting Tywin sack the city end up being worse, and more likely to end with little Aegon dead?

Not "not letting Tywin sack the city". Not letting him enter peacefully. It has been a slaughter anyway. But Varys could not know that before hand. If there has been a peaceful surrender, as Pycelle was likely expecting, Varys' plan would have gone into limbo. With Aegon in ward somewhere, or properly put to death in front of Robert, he could never have issued another Aegon later.

[One-eyed Misbehavin]

13 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Assuming Aegon is The Blackfyre, and assuming that he allies with Daenerys at first as Tyrion predicted, it is very easy to see how the three treasons Daenerys will know will hit all at once: Illyrio for the blood of House Blackfyre, Tyrion for all the gold of Casterly Rock, and Aegon for love of Arianne, or maybe Sansa. 

I didn't die your thread justice but that has to be the most convincing and well written Faegon piece I've seen on here

2 questions lol if he truly is a Blackfyre if he was given the chance would he have a good shot to "conquer" a dragon? Will he wield Blackfyre? 

[Lost Melnibonean]

51 minutes ago, One-eyed Misbehavin said:

I didn't die your thread justice but that has to be the most convincing and well written Faegon piece I've seen on here

2 questions lol if he truly is a Blackfyre if he was given the chance would he have a good shot to "conquer" a dragon? Will he wield Blackfyre? 

Heck I believe the noble lad is one of the three heads of Rhaegar's dragon. 

Quote

The first head devours the dying, and the reborn emerge from the third. I don't know what the middle head's supposed to do.

Jon will be the third head. Aegon is the second, and Daenerys was the first. Daenerys will defeat Aegon when they "dance," and a "reborn" Jon will be revealed to be the son of Rhaegar. 

Aegon, will ride the green dragon against Daenerys on the black one. And I am sure Illyrio will give Aegon Blackfyre to wield. 

[Lady Blizzardborn]

7 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Curious. Usually I'm the one having the devious reading of the books. At least 99% of the readers think very little of the Blackfyres. Believe Varys did his job with Aerys. Later with Robert. And now is seeking a better king for his employment. It is only us, who have read everything, who have read the forums, who spend too much time thinking about ASoIaF, with too much time between the books, and thinking how much GRRM himself is devious, who have these crazy ideas. And you believe GRRM has laid out subtle misdirections, so we can speculate something wrong, so that the 99% who never thought about it, were right from the start. There was no secret story, contrary to some subtile suggestions, making much more sense of the poor Visery's enterprise, maybe of Dorne too. Strange.

Not "not letting Tywin sack the city". Not letting him enter peacefully. It has been a slaughter anyway. But Varys could not know that before hand. If there has been a peaceful surrender, as Pycelle was likely expecting, Varys' plan would have gone into limbo. With Aegon in ward somewhere, or properly put to death in front of Robert, he could never have issued another Aegon later.

No I don't. You seem to have read more into what I said than what I said, and as a result drawn some wide-ranging conclusions from it that are not in keeping with my actual thoughts.  Just because I disagree on one point doesn't mean I disagree about everything. I happen to believe the Blackfyres are important, but that doesn't require Varys being either 1) a rat who sold out Rhaegar or 2) trying to put a Blackfyre on the throne. In fact, Aegon is not the only Blackfyre candidate, but even if there were no others we would still get the fact that Daenerys will think Aegon is a fake (and we and she may never find out the truth on that anyway).

Thank you for the explanation on the Tywin issue. Personally I think Varys could have smuggled Aegon out, or found another way to ensure he could bring in an Aegon decoy later.