R+L=J v.162

[RumHam]

1 hour ago, The Twinslayer said:

I don't think Robert was standing over Selmy after the battle.    

I misremembered that detail, but my point remains the same. Selmy was near death and Robert was well enough that he didn't need his own maester. This could not have been long after the battle, or Selmy would have bled out. Plus as @Lord Varys said Ned was not about to just forget about Rhaegar's children until Tywin revealed them. I really don't think it could have been that long.

The whole bit about finding his sister vs. finishing the war, I think you're just wrong there. I mean Ned was doing both, but I'd imagine he was more concerned with finding Lyanna than mopping up the remaining loyalists. Of course he may not have had any leads as to where Lyanna was, so looking for her/ and the missing kingsguard at Storm's End was probably his best move anyway. 

[The Twinslayer]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@The Twinslayer

We don't have good material to speculate on how long it took Robert to reach KL. I'm not agreeing with RumHam that he came mere hours later, it should have been at least a day or so. But not much more.

The idea that Tywin could keep the murder of the royal children a secret from Eddard Stark makes no sense. Ned took possession of the castle as well, remember, and there is little chance that Tywin would have been able to prevent Ned from investigating the whereabouts of Princess Elia and Rhaegar's children. For all he know his own sister Lyanna could have been in Maegor's Holdfast, too.

Tywin could have perhaps been able to keep the exact circumstances of the deaths a secret from Ned - until he presented the bodies to Robert in the throne room - but not much else.

Not to mention that there was this tension over both the Sack and the murder of Aerys II by the hands of Jaime Lannister. Eddard Stark had the rebel troops in the city. He could very well have seized Ser Jaime in King Robert's name and executed him for his crime. I don't think Ned would have been wise enough to postpone such a confrontation with the Lannisters had he had reason to believe that Robert would not come soon.

Then there is the fact that Tywin apparently decided to send Alliser Thorne and Jaremy Rykker to the Wall. Robert most likely would have pardoned those men, suggesting that this decision was made by Tywin before Robert arrived in the city.

Robert's wound most likely looked worse than it was. Perhaps he was injured at one of his legs making it either difficult or risky for him to ride. But once it became clear that the wound wasn't that bad he just pressed on as a man like Robert always would.

You make a good point about Rykker and Thorne -- Tywin had control of the city long enough to mete out some justice before Robert arrived and Tywin bent the knee.  

I don't agree that Ned was in control of the city before Robert arrived.  Tywin tells us that he was there well before Ned.  When he ordered Lorch and the Mountain to kill the royal children, Stark's men were still on their way to King's Landing.  Tywin's men had time to raise Lannister flags over the city before Ned got there.

And Ned is very clear about who was in control.  Robert  says "you found that our men had already taken the city.  What of it?"  And Ned replies:  "Not our men," Ned said patiently.  "Lannister men.  The lion of Lannister flew over the ramparts, not the crowned stag.  And they had taken the city by treachery."  And "Lannister's men were everywhere."

We know Tywin had an army of 12,000 with him while Ned rode out at speed thinking he would only confront Aerys who "was in the Red Keep with several thousand loyalists."  So Ned had a small force and Tywin was in charge until Robert arrived.  If Ned asked where the royal children were, Tywin would have simply said "I have them and that is all you need to know."  Ned was in no position to defy Tywin at that point, and certainly in no position to seize Jaime and execute him.  

2 hours ago, RumHam said:

I misremembered that detail, but my point remains the same. Selmy was near death and Robert was well enough that he didn't need his own maester. This could not have been long after the battle, or Selmy would have bled out. Plus as @Lord Varys said Ned was not about to just forget about Rhaegar's children until Tywin revealed them. I really don't think it could have been that long.

The whole bit about finding his sister vs. finishing the war, I think you're just wrong there. I mean Ned was doing both, but I'd imagine he was more concerned with finding Lyanna than mopping up the remaining loyalists. Of course he may not have had any leads as to where Lyanna was, so looking for her/ and the missing kingsguard at Storm's End was probably his best move anyway. 

I don't agree that Ned's primary purpose was finding Lyanna at all.  He tells us in his private thoughts that his purpose when he left King's Landing was to fight the last battles of the war.  He does not say that he left to go find Lyanna but had to stop by Storm's End to fight the Tyrells on the way.  And he wasn't looking for the Kingsguard at Storm's End either -- he went there to rescue Stannis, who was on the verge of starving to death.  Davos says "His little ship had a black hull, black sails, black oars, and a hoard crammed with onions and salt fish.  Little enough, yet it had kept the garrison alive long enough for Eddard Stark to reach Storm's End and break the siege."  Stannis says people actually starved:  "I held Storm's End for him, watching good men starve while Mace Tyrell and Paxter Redwyne feasted within sight of my walls.  Did Robert thank me?  No.  He thanked Stark, for lifting the siege when we were down to rats and radishes."  That, and putting some troops between Dorne and King's Landing, were much more urgent than finding Lyanna.  

I don't doubt that Ned was keen to find his sister, but he had other more pressing business before he could go looking for her. 

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, RumHam said:

I misremembered that detail, but my point remains the same. Selmy was near death and Robert was well enough that he didn't need his own maester. This could not have been long after the battle, or Selmy would have bled out. Plus as @Lord Varys said Ned was not about to just forget about Rhaegar's children until Tywin revealed them. I really don't think it could have been that long.

Thinking about 'Robert's own maester' - it wouldn't have been Robert's own maester at all. Cressen was Robert's maester, and Cressen was at Storm's End with Stannis and Renly. It would have been another maester from the Stormlords, perhaps the maester of a lord who had died in battle and subsequently attached himself to Robert.

Quote

The whole bit about finding his sister vs. finishing the war, I think you're just wrong there. I mean Ned was doing both, but I'd imagine he was more concerned with finding Lyanna than mopping up the remaining loyalists. Of course he may not have had any leads as to where Lyanna was, so looking for her/ and the missing kingsguard at Storm's End was probably his best move anyway. 

Thinking about that - the whole point of Ned taking the rebel army to KL may have been part of his intention to get to Lyanna first. After all, he may have believed she was with Aerys and Elia in the Red Keep. Ned went to KL. But he was Robert's best friend. Why the hell didn't Hoster of Jon go? He might have volunteered - or perhaps he even suggested the whole thing in the first place.

Another thing to consider in that as well as in the whole problem of Ned's motivation to protect Lyanna's child later on is Ned's interpretation of the Lannister crimes. Ned actually thinks Tywin and Jaime were after the Iron Throne. He thinks Jaime murdered Aerys II on behalf of his father and he also seems to believe Elia and Rhaegar's children had to go because they stood in the way of Lannister ambition.

Keep in mind that Ned saw Jaime sitting on the Iron Throne and made him give it up. Ned interpreted this as Lannister ambition not so much a sort of joke as Jaime actually meant it. We clearly understand later on that Jaime never wanted the Iron Throne for himself.

6 minutes ago, The Twinslayer said:

I don't agree that Ned was in control of the city before Robert arrived.  Tywin tells us that he was there well before Ned.  When he ordered Lorch and the Mountain to kill the royal children, Stark's men were still on their way to King's Landing.  Tywin's men had time to raise Lannister flags over the city before Ned got there.

I did not say Ned was in control of the city. I said he took possession of the castle. Ned rode through KL and into the Red Keep and nobody stopped him. And then he forced Jaime out of the Iron Throne.

We don't yet know how Tywin and Ned got along thereafter but considering what Tywin had done he would have been well advised to informally defer to Ned as Robert's representative in the city. Remember, Tywin wanted to win Robert's friendship and jump on the rebel bandwagon at the last possible moment. He could not possibly antagonize Ned. If it came to blows between them then it would have been pretty clear whose side Robert and the other rebels would take later on and House Lannister would be finished, being now the (mortal) enemies of both the Targaryen loyalists and the rebels.

In general there are inconsistencies in this whole thing. Tywin supposedly wrapped the corpses in Lannister crimson to hide the blood but unless they were presented to Robert very quickly after their deaths this wouldn't have worked all that well considering that blood stains dry very quickly and no longer all that red. But then, perhaps he did so to hide the blood when it was fresh from whoever might see them.

6 minutes ago, The Twinslayer said:

And Ned is very clear about who was in control.  Robert  says "you found that our men had already taken the city.  What of it?"  And Ned replies:  "Not our men," Ned said patiently.  "Lannister men.  The lion of Lannister flew over the ramparts, not the crowned stag.  And they had taken the city by treachery."  And "Lannister's men were everywhere."

Yeah, Tywin was in control when Ned arrived. But nobody says who was formally or informally in control thereafter.

6 minutes ago, The Twinslayer said:

We know Tywin had an army of 12,000 with him while Ned rode out at speed thinking he would only confront Aerys who "was in the Red Keep with several thousand loyalists."  So Ned had a small force and Tywin was in charge until Robert arrived.  If Ned asked where the royal children were, Tywin would have simply said "I have them and that is all you need to know."  Ned was in no position to defy Tywin at that point, and certainly in no position to seize Jaime and execute him.

That is unclear. We don't know how many men Ned had with him. Keep in mind that the united cavalry of the rebels might have been pretty big. Even if Tywin had more men Ned would still have been in the better position being Robert's representative in the city - the representative of the guy Tywin does not actually want to antagonize at this point.

[The Twinslayer]

18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Another thing to consider in that as well as in the whole problem of Ned's motivation to protect Lyanna's child later on is Ned's interpretation of the Lannister crimes. Ned actually thinks Tywin and Jaime were after the Iron Throne. He thinks Jaime murdered Aerys II on behalf of his father and he also seems to believe Elia and Rhaegar's children had to go because they stood in the way of Lannister ambition.

Keep in mind that Ned saw Jaime sitting on the Iron Throne and made him give it up. Ned interpreted this as Lannister ambition not so much a sort of joke as Jaime actually meant it. We clearly understand later on that Jaime never wanted the Iron Throne for himself.

We don't yet know how Tywin and Ned got along thereafter but considering what Tywin had done he would have been well advised to informally defer to Ned as Robert's representative in the city. Remember, Tywin wanted to win Robert's friendship and jump on the rebel bandwagon at the last possible moment. He could not possibly antagonize Ned. If it came to blows between them then it would have been pretty clear whose side Robert and the other rebels would take later on and House Lannister would be finished, being now the (mortal) enemies of both the Targaryen loyalists and the rebels.

Just responding to two points.  

I think Jaime's story about why he killed Aerys is either a retcon or a lie.  The Jaime we see in AGOT is as evil as Ned believes him to be.  Objectively.  He was the KG who killed the king and then stepped over the king's corpse and climbed the stairs up to the top of the Iron Throne while his father's men hung Lannister banners over the castle.  He commits treason with the queen (his own sister!) and pushes an eight year old out a window.  He murders Ned's men in the streets of King's Landing and then flees the city to take command of the army his father is mustering while his sister and cousin assassinate the king.  

I do think Aerys was hoarding wildfire, but in ACOK it was not enough for Tyrion's purposes and he had to have more made.  I find it hard to believe that it was enough for Aerys to burn the whole city down but not enough for Tyrion to light up the Blackwater.  I also wonder about the fact that Jaime claims to be the only one who knew where the secret stash of wildfire was, but it was conveniently available for his brother to use against Stannis when the time came.   

On the second point, I think Tywin was jockeying for power.  He knew he had to bend the knee to Robert, but I don't see him deferring to Ned.  He was far too proud for that.  

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

I think Jaime's story about why he killed Aerys is either a retcon or a lie.  The Jaime we see in AGOT is as evil as Ned believes him to be.  Objectively.  He was the KG who killed the king and then stepped over the king's corpse and climbed the stairs up to the top of the Iron Throne while his father's men hung Lannister banners over the castle.  He commits treason with the queen (his own sister!) and pushes an eight year old out a window.  He murders Ned's men in the streets of King's Landing and then flees the city to take command of the army his father is mustering while his sister and cousin assassinate the king.

It cannot really be a lie unless we assume Jaime is lying to the reader as well as to himself. The impression we get of 15-17-year-old Jaime in Jaime's own memories don't exactly describe him as an ambitious villain.

The whole thing certainly could be a retcon of sorts but that is irrelevant because we now got the true motivation Jaime had for his kingslaying thing. The attempted murder of Bran certainly is a very serious crime but the incest has been revealed to be true Lannister love going back to the childhood of the twins.

9 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

I do think Aerys was hoarding wildfire, but in ACOK it was not enough for Tyrion's purposes and he had to have more made.  I find it hard to believe that it was enough for Aerys to burn the whole city down but not enough for Tyrion to light up the Blackwater.  I also wonder about the fact that Jaime claims to be the only one who knew where the secret stash of wildfire was, but it was conveniently available for his brother to use against Stannis when the time came.

Not all of Aerys' fruits have been found. And the alchemists may have destroyed some of those overtime. Even if not there is no reason to believe that Aerys would have needed as much wildfire as Tyrion later used for his plan. Keep in mind that wood burns once ignited while water doesn't really burned. An inferno of the type Tyrion created on the Blackwater was completely wildfire-based whereas Aerys could easily have started a fire that would eventually consumed all of King's Landing simply by incinerating the city at some crucial points.

Keep in mind that we do know that two stashes of the Aerys wildfire were stored beneath the Great Sept and the Dragonpit, both buildings mostly build of stone. To destroy them wildfire would be needed. But to burn down the rest of the city a little bit of wildfire positioned strategically all across the city should do the trick.

9 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

On the second point, I think Tywin was jockeying for power.  He knew he had to bend the knee to Robert, but I don't see him deferring to Ned.  He was far too proud for that.  

That is just an assumption. I'm not saying Tywin did homage to Ned or something like that. But he wanted to win Robert's friendship so he could not possibly actually provoke Robert's best friend into attacking him. If open hostilities had broken out between the rebel forces and the Lannisters then Robert, Jon, and Hoster had later helped Ned against Tywin, and Tywin and Jaime might have both been killed or executed in the process. Hell, King Robert might even have attainted House Lannister and given Casterly Rock to some friend of his. If Tywin had antagonized both the rebels and the Targaryens House Lannister would have been doomed.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

11 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

I do think Aerys was hoarding wildfire, but in ACOK it was not enough for Tyrion's purposes and he had to have more made.  I find it hard to believe that it was enough for Aerys to burn the whole city down but not enough for Tyrion to light up the Blackwater.  I also wonder about the fact that Jaime claims to be the only one who knew where the secret stash of wildfire was, but it was conveniently available for his brother to use against Stannis when the time came.   

Who says that all of Aerys's wildfire has been found? ACOK makes it clear that secret stashes of wildfire are still occasionally found in the city, after all (e.g., in the dragonpit, under the Great Sept).

[Ser Creighton]

3 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Who says that all of Aerys's wildfire has been found? ACOK makes it clear that secret stashes of wildfire are still occasionally found in the city, after all (e.g., in the dragonpit, under the Great Sept).

ACOK 20

"Much of the stock we made for Aerys was lost."

Some of that stock was "Sealed them with Wax and pumped the lower vault full with water."

"Only last year, two hundred jars were discovered in a storeroom beneath the great sept of Baelor."

"How many Jars do you have at present." "This morning the Wisdom Munciter told me that we had seven thousand eight hundred and forty. That count includes four thousand jars from King Aerys's day, to be sure."

"Wisdon Malliard believes we shall be able to provide a full ten thousand jars, as was promised the queen. I concur."

So much of the stock was lost, some of it was flooded, and they still had 4000 jars left over. I hear wood and materials burn much better than water but I could be wrong.

Much of the Wildfire that was made for the Queen was dispatched to the city gates to be used by the Spitfires. She would later use some Wildfire to burn down the tower of the hand, and of course Tyrion used it on the Blackwater. Tyrion did not even know how much Wildfire there was and the Order had already been placed for 10,000 pots. He did not ask for more, nor had he ever witnessed what it was capable of in combat.

Perhaps those numbers will help clear up the matter of how many pots were floating around and just how dangerous it is.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

@Ser Creighton

The impression I have is that Tyrion took all the wildfire Hallyne had to offer for his plan. All of Aerys' fruits which had been stored or found over the years as well as the new jars Cersei had commanded them to build burned away on the Blackwater.

Perhaps a small contingent remained with the men on the walls and at the gates but I don't think so because Tyrion seems to have been smart enough to realize that his people would endanger the city more than they would help them if he allowed them to handle wildfire in large quantities.

[Ser Creighton]

44 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Ser Creighton

The impression I have is that Tyrion took all the wildfire Hallyne had to offer for his plan. All of Aerys' fruits which had been stored or found over the years as well as the new jars Cersei had commanded them to build burned away on the Blackwater.

Perhaps a small contingent remained with the men on the walls and at the gates but I don't think so because Tyrion seems to have been smart enough to realize that his people would endanger the city more than they would help them if he allowed them to handle wildfire in large quantities.

In Kings 20, while finishing his visit with the Pyromancers he requested thousands of empty practice clay pots be sent from the Pyromancers to the Spitfires at each gate, so 7 gates. He then went and met with Bywater the head of the Gold cloaks, and discussed his plan for Wildfire and spitfires with him and the training he expected. 

I can't speak to how many pots went to each gate or for the chain or the turrets overlooking the black water and harbor. Just that both he and Aerys appear to have more than sufficient amounts of the stuff and what he had planned on doing. If I recall we do get some Spitfires shooting the stuff. We only witness the battle of the Blackwater, but Stannis had his Van approach by land, some 5000 men, Tyrions tribes men had gone out to harass them we never witness their attack.

According to the pyromancers a thin coating on a sword could burn for up to an hour. Placed on wood as in ships and homes and other building and living materials and that many pots would be enough to do considerable damage for a sustained period of time. Tyrion had access to some 10,000 pots, and Aerys at the very least had several thousand pots.

The Wildfire serves the purpose Martin wanted it too, he gave some numbers on them that's really all I know. I don't think the idea was based off something one might have seen on TV, but starting a fire in a city and hoping to kill a lot of people. I think Aerys had stashes at the gates and other major locations, so he could trap people and set the city ablaze letting it spread like any fire would. It's essentially a large amount of super accelerant. 

To give an example from my Childhood, a song.

Late last night when we were all in bed,
Old lady O'Leary left her lantern in the shed.
Well, the cow kicked it over, and this is what they said:
"There'll be a hot time in the old town tonight!"

When you hear those bells go ding-a-ling,
All join 'round and sweetly you must sing.
And when the verse is through, in the chorus all join in:
"There'll be a hot time in the old town tonight!"

"FIRE, FIRE, FIRE"

Don't take much to get a fire going. Thousands of pots of highly flammable, intensely burning, long lasting wildfire was questioned, a substance that can't be put out with water, a substance that explodes as well as burns, a substance that can melt metal.

I don't know what else to add to that. And I think the final numbers ended up being 13,000 pots of Wildfire, as well as hundreds of scorpions, spitfires, and catapults being built. That number indicates Wildfire can be produced rather quickly. Oh and I have no clue what the fruit shaped pots was about, it probably has some meaning, but I have no idea.   

 

[Lord Varys]

@Ser Creighton

Oh, I remember Tyrion arranging for the City Watch to train with fake wildfire jars. The question is whether he actually gave them much wildfire to actually defend the city with 'the substance'. Back when he was making his plans and talking to Hallyne he was not yet sure whether his chain would be ready in time or whether it would be of any use at all.

Keep in mind that Renly wouldn't have come by ship across Blackwater Bay and would have commanded an army both way too large to be severely threatened by the wildfire plan. That plan was always nothing but a rather risky gamble to deal Stannis a devastating blow. Because Stannis was the guy with the ships who would attack from the sea.

I'm with you that Aerys' wouldn't have needed that much wildfire to burn down KL. But that doesn't mean he didn't have a lot of the stuff by the time he began implementing the plan simply because he had the Alchemists made a lot of the substance for years since Duskendale - simply because he liked to watch the flames and burned quite a lot of people.

The plan might even have been to actually trap and roast Tywin and his troops in the city after the Sack had begun. If Rossart had commanded his men to incinerate the stuff that might have been stashed at/near the seven gates of the city, nobody would have gotten away. 

[Old Blue Eyes]

I wonder if Ned told Benjen about Jon's parents.  Also, seems plausible that he did, and that Benjen let Mormont know as well.  Being on the Wall and brothers of the NW, it would seem safe to pass on this info to select few.

[SFDanny]

3 minutes ago, Old Blue Eyes said:

I wonder if Ned told Benjen about Jon's parents.  Also, seems plausible that he did, and that Benjen let Mormont know as well.  Being on the Wall and brothers of the NW, it would seem safe to pass on this info to select few.

Certainly it's an open question what Ned told Benjen about Jon and Lyanna, but I'd argue it really doesn't matter if Ned doesn't tell Benjen because he likely already knows. Benjen was at Harrenhal and he clearly was close to his sister. My guess is that Benjen was the one brother who sided with Lyanna's objections to the betrothal to Robert. Not that at his age he could do anything about it. Martin has hinted at revealing  the reasons Benjen joined the Night's Watch when he did. Again, my guess is that tensions between Ned and Benjen over Lyanna's death are behind his actions. If Benjen knew his sister's attraction to Rhaegar and her objections to Robert, it wouldn't take him long to figure out who this babe Ned claimed as his own really was. Did Ned actually take his younger brother into the secret? I don't know, but I believe Benjen knew even if Ned said nothing.

For me, one of the interesting questions concerning Benjen is whether or not he and Ned ever really wanted Jon to take the Black? Benjen certainly intended on talking to Jon on his return, and Ned regrets learning of his brother being lost on his journey north of the wall, not just for the obvious loss of a brother, but also because he wants to talk to Jon as well. Did the brothers have an understanding about removing Jon from Winterfell that did not include him actually taking the oath?

Let me just say, I think it likely Ned and Benjen believe Jon is Rhaegar's bastard son - for reasons I went over in the last thread. But let's assume they know Jon is a legitimate heir to Rhaegar Targaryen. Then we have to assume that the brothers sent Jon off to join the Night's Watch without knowing his true parentage and any claims he had because of it. Does it sound like the Stark brothers we know? Perhaps, if Jon's safety is the only thing on their mind. But it seems to me that honor would dictate Ned and Benjen tell Jon who he is before he takes his oath. Unless they never intended he do so. If they believe he is a bastard then it makes little difference. Anyway, some thoughts on the subject.

[The Wolves]

2 hours ago, Old Blue Eyes said:

I wonder if Ned told Benjen about Jon's parents.  Also, seems plausible that he did, and that Benjen let Mormont know as well.  Being on the Wall and brothers of the NW, it would seem safe to pass on this info to select few.

I doubt Benjen would tell Mormont about Jon's paternity, what would be the point? 

[ser charles candle]

6 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Certainly it's an open question what Ned told Benjen about Jon and Lyanna, but I'd argue it really doesn't matter if Ned doesn't tell Benjen because he likely already knows. Benjen was at Harrenhal and he clearly was close to his sister. My guess is that Benjen was the one brother who sided with Lyanna's objections to the betrothal to Robert. Not that at his age he could do anything about it. Martin has hinted at revealing  the reasons Benjen joined the Night's Watch when he did. Again, my guess is that tensions between Ned and Benjen over Lyanna's death are behind his actions. If Benjen knew his sister's attraction to Rhaegar and her objections to Robert, it wouldn't take him long to figure out who this babe Ned claimed as his own really was. Did Ned actually take his younger brother into the secret? I don't know, but I believe Benjen knew even if Ned said nothing.

For me, one of the interesting questions concerning Benjen is whether or not he and Ned ever really wanted Jon to take the Black? Benjen certainly intended on talking to Jon on his return, and Ned regrets learning of his brother being lost on his journey north of the wall, not just for the obvious loss of a brother, but also because he wants to talk to Jon as well. Did the brothers have an understanding about removing Jon from Winterfell that did not include him actually taking the oath?

Let me just say, I think it likely Ned and Benjen believe Jon is Rhaegar's bastard son - for reasons I went over in the last thread. But let's assume they know Jon is a legitimate heir to Rhaegar Targaryen. Then we have to assume that the brothers sent Jon off to join the Night's Watch without knowing his true parentage and any claims he had because of it. Does it sound like the Stark brothers we know? Perhaps, if Jon's safety is the only thing on their mind. But it seems to me that honor would dictate Ned and Benjen tell Jon who he is before he takes his oath. Unless they never intended he do so. If they believe he is a bastard then it makes little difference. Anyway, some thoughts on the subject.

Bastard or not they would rally behind The last Dragon's son. If he is Rhaegars son, it would explain the Kingsguard's presence. Like many have theorized before, had Arthur won, bastard or not he would.have taken Jon and groomed him until he was ready to claim his Fathers throne. Tinfoil activate now:Ned let Jon take he the black for his own selfish reasons, he saw himself protecting Jon, and having Jon forfeit any future claim. 2 birds with one stone plus out of sight out of mind. We see his original plan was to leave Jon with Robb. 

[SFDanny]

17 hours ago, ser charles candle said:

Bastard or not they would rally behind The last Dragon's son. If he is Rhaegars son, it would explain the Kingsguard's presence. Like many have theorized before, had Arthur won, bastard or not he would.have taken Jon and groomed him until he was ready to claim his Fathers throne. 

That kind of depends on who are the "they" in your hypothetical revolt, doesn't it? The High Lords of the Realm? Rising for a bastard? I think not. I can see a victorious Ser Arthur taking Jon into exile to be safeguarded from Robert's wrath, but I can't see a coalition of the Targaryen loyalist lords raising in revolt to put a bastard son on the Iron Throne.

17 hours ago, ser charles candle said:

Tinfoil activate now:Ned let Jon take he the black for his own selfish reasons, he saw himself protecting Jon, and having Jon forfeit any future claim. 2 birds with one stone plus out of sight out of mind. We see his original plan was to leave Jon with Robb. 

Possible, but not terribly honorable. If Jon has a claim, the honorable thing to do is to tell him before he decides to swear an oath throwing it away. If Benjen and Ned know of such a claim, I think it likely they either had no plan for him to ever take the Black, or they planned on telling him before he did so. Or so goes my read of the Stark brothers.

[ser charles candle]

10 hours ago, SFDanny said:

That kind of depends on who are the "they" in your hypothetical revolt, doesn't it? The High Lords of the Realm? Rising for a bastard? I think not. I can see a victorious Ser Arthur taking Jon into exile to be safeguarded from Robert's wrath, but I can't see a coalition of the Targaryen loyalist lords raising in revolt to put a bastard son on the Iron Throne.

Sorry should have been more specific, i have a hard time writting my thoughts in cohesive sentences. "They" would be any Lord unhappy with the current King, be it Robert or whoever else would be king at that point in this hypothetical. Im not saying people would seek him out, but just like Aegon who no one knows for sure if thats him. Will get people who are unhappy with the Lannisters flock to his banner. like Dorne. Why? because he is an option. Just like Jon coming with the greatest Knight, both skill and honor, to ever live vouchig for him. Im sure people would flock to him. Im almost sure it wouldnt be the first time a Bastarf gets legimitized so the house doesnt die off.

[Ser Creighton]

On 8/5/2016 at 3:05 PM, Lord Varys said:

@Ser Creighton

Oh, I remember Tyrion arranging for the City Watch to train with fake wildfire jars. The question is whether he actually gave them much wildfire to actually defend the city with 'the substance'. Back when he was making his plans and talking to Hallyne he was not yet sure whether his chain would be ready in time or whether it would be of any use at all.

Keep in mind that Renly wouldn't have come by ship across Blackwater Bay and would have commanded an army both way too large to be severely threatened by the wildfire plan. That plan was always nothing but a rather risky gamble to deal Stannis a devastating blow. Because Stannis was the guy with the ships who would attack from the sea.

I'm with you that Aerys' wouldn't have needed that much wildfire to burn down KL. But that doesn't mean he didn't have a lot of the stuff by the time he began implementing the plan simply because he had the Alchemists made a lot of the substance for years since Duskendale - simply because he liked to watch the flames and burned quite a lot of people.

The plan might even have been to actually trap and roast Tywin and his troops in the city after the Sack had begun. If Rossart had commanded his men to incinerate the stuff that might have been stashed at/near the seven gates of the city, nobody would have gotten away. 

I think you misunderstand me, I think Aerys had a ton of Wildfire by the numbers given from the book, all that is left is 4000 pots/fruits and I think personally 4000 is a lot of Wildfire. Sometimes I don't think Martin gets how powerful he makes some things. Like Wildfire is a hyper accelerant that has very long burn and a very high burn. It can damage steel and seeps into materials like steel and stone. He basically gave Westeros super napalm. It seems to not only burn hotter but far longer and somehow it permeates any material it touches. It's the same with Dragon fire he has it melting thick granite and it sticks. Bronze will instantly melt from just being in a young dragons mouth.

He is so inconsistent about it too, he has one guy with his head inside the mouth of a young dragon and the bronze mask and head just melt. On the other hand he has a great dragon breath fire on a guy in armor and the guy just keeps coming. Or the story of Rickard who is alive while his armor is red hot. Sorry you are not a live at that point, your lungs exploded and liquefied a long time ago. If the heat in the air is turning your armor red hot, the air you are breathing is doing the exact same thing to you. Your in the 1700 to 3500 F range with these temps. You are basically breathing magma. At 400 F you're bacon, at 3000 F you're ash, hell your bacteria is ash. 

The Wall is the same, he made it to big, to tall. Or when he suddenly revealed a couple years ago that dragon fire burns dragons. It's like if it's coming out of their mouth it should not kill them. It's like your dog licking itself and then exploding from it, but his head, face, mouth, neck, lungs, eyes nose are all okay. Their blood melts steel, but it can hurt them if they get it on themselves?????? Martin will think through an entire meal and every ingredient, and spice, and recipe and cooking and all that. But doesn't think Dragons are fire made flesh, they breathe fire, their blood is hot enough to melt steel, the fire comes out of their mouth, but fire burns them. It's like saying the aliens acid blood kills them if they get acid on them or in them, that's why the aliens in Alien are immune to their own acid. If it worked Martins way we should all be exploding right about now.

Guy drives me nuts sometimes.  

[Lord Varys]

@Ser Creighton

My point was that Aerys might very well have had much more than those 4,000 jars that were found. It is still possible that there are another hundred jars each beneath each gate, the major City Watch garrisons, and other key points in the city.

George isn't very good with numbers or heights or temperatures (best example for that is Viserys' golden crown) but in general both wildfire and dragonfire are magical things. The fire of old dragons burns hotter than the fire of younger dragons so it is hardly surprising that Balerion and Vhagar were able melt stone and destroy castles while the smaller dragons can't pull that off. Only the fire of really old dragons should actually burn other dragons. Apparently Baela's Moondancer was blinded by the fire of Sunfyre which makes sense considering that Sunfyre is a couple of years older than Moondancer. A similar thing goes for the fires of the Doom. They burned to hot for any dragon to survive, or at least the other things accompanying (lava, flying rocks, huge tsunamis) the heat were too much for the dragons to survive. Perhaps the really huge dragons could have survived the heat alone if they had not been hit by all the other stuff?

As to Rickard, I always thought the alchemists used magic for that burning. They somehow arranged things in such a way that the fire slowly consumed the man, prolonging the suffering in the process. The way how Oberyn supposedly magically thickened the poison he used on the spear in the fight against way be a good comparison. Apparently you can use magic to mess with the effects certain things like poison of heat/fire have in that world.

[RumHam]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

Apparently Baela's Moondancer was blinded by the fire of Sunfyre which makes sense considering that Sunfyre is a couple of years older than Moondancer.

I think that was just because dragon's scales protect them from fire, and they don't have any scales over their eyes. I don't think it had anything to do with the relative ages of the dragons. 

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, RumHam said:

I think that was just because dragon's scales protect them from fire, and they don't have any scales over their eyes. I don't think it had anything to do with the relative ages of the dragons. 

Well, we don't know whether they have reptile-like eye-lashes, do we? But they certainly could have and those might as protective against fire and heat as dragon scales.

Moondander could have failed to close her eyes in time, or her eye-lashes might have been burned away by Sunfyre's fire. Or, perhaps, 'blinded' just refers to Moondancer staring directly into the brightness of Sunfyre's golden fire and doesn't actually mean literally blinded (being comparable to looking directly into the sun for ten seconds or so).