R+L=J v.162

[SFDanny]

49 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

It should be quite clear, especially given that the screenplay has revealed ...

Please keep this crap out of these threads!

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

There are all sorts of interpretations that can be placed on Rhaegar's motives and intentions, but in the end there's no getting away from the fact that when GRRM answered the question as to why the Kings Guard were at the tower he replied that they were obeying orders and implied those orders - whatever they were - came from Prince Rhaegar.

Again, he was speaking hypothetically. He said 'If Rhaegar had given them an order' - that does not mean he gave them one. And we still don't know why George thinks the Kingsguard would have been obliged to obey Rhaegar. I want to know (and think as to why) this might have been the case.

That's why I assume Ser Gerold Hightower came with an offer of peace and reconciliation from Aerys to Rhaegar. Whatever forced Rhaegar and Lyanna to go underground and run away was revoked and Rhaegar was once again welcome at his father's court and asked to bring the war to the rebels. Under such circumstances - and if Aerys also named Rhaegar Protector of the Realm or gave him supreme authority over everybody in the kingdom besides the king himself - it makes sense for us to believe that Ser Gerold himself would be forced to obey Rhaegar.

But not just because Rhaegar was a royal prince.

3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

And there the fact remains the orders were given at a time before Jon was born and when the king and all his acknowledged heirs and successors were still living.

That is not really a problem if Rhaegar had (near) ultimate authority. However, it is odd for a number of reasons. We have no reason to believe that Lyanna wanted to part from Rhaegar or stay at that tower. We have no idea why Rhaegar thought he could not take Lyanna with him to KL. Considering that he made apparently no attempt to wrest Elia and his children out of his father's clutches and send them back to his castle on Dragonstone to safety after his return to KL. It is also odd that he would assign three Kingsguard to a pregnant Lyanna but none to Elia and his living children.

We can even entertain the idea that Aerys II was sort of fine with the three Kingsguard staying with Lyanna because he apparently made no attempt to pass different orders to them. We have no reason to believe that Rhaegar kept the location of Lyanna a secret from his father or that Ser Gerold only found the tower during some complicated search on the road. It is just as likely that Varys heard rumors where the hell Rhaegar was supposed to be and then Aerys commanded Ser Gerold to go to him.

[Jon Snow Nothing]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not really a problem if Rhaegar had (near) ultimate authority. However, it is odd for a number of reasons. We have no reason to believe that Lyanna wanted to part from Rhaegar or stay at that tower. We have no idea why Rhaegar thought he could not take Lyanna with him to KL. Considering that he made apparently no attempt to wrest Elia and his children out of his father's clutches and send them back to his castle on Dragonstone to safety after his return to KL. It is also odd that he would assign three Kingsguard to a pregnant Lyanna but none to Elia and his living children.

I wonder if he thought Elia and the children would be safer somewhere else, if the place where Aerys himself is protected is not enough to protect them, he may have thought KL was the safest. I wonder if the Lannisters would not have a plan to kill them elsewhere. Rhaella and Viserys were sent to Dragonstone only when Rhaegar died, right? Or am I wrong?

The reason he did not bring Lyanna might be the pregnancy, we don't know if they had a maester or not, but certainly it was too risky for Lyanna to travel.

 

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Jon Snow Nothing said:

I wonder if he thought Elia and the children would be safer somewhere else, if the place where Aerys himself is protected is not enough to protect them, he may have thought KL was the safest. I wonder if the Lannisters would not have a plan to kill them elsewhere. Rhaella and Viserys were sent to Dragonstone only when Rhaegar died, right? Or am I wrong?

You are right there. But Dragonstone is an island, much safer than King's Landing and Rhaegar's own seat and residence at that time. Elia would have been safe there not only from the rebels should they defeat Rhaegar but also from Aerys himself.

8 minutes ago, Jon Snow Nothing said:

The reason he did not bring Lyanna might be the pregnancy, we don't know if they had a maester or not, but certainly it was too risky for Lyanna to travel.

That doesn't make any sense. Months passed between Rhaegar's return and the Trident, so Lyanna should have been perfectly capable to travel. Not to mention that no sane person would put a pregnant woman in such tower without any decent medical care.

[Tucu]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't make any sense. Months passed between Rhaegar's return and the Trident, so Lyanna should have been perfectly capable to travel. Not to mention that no sane person would put a pregnant woman in such tower without any decent medical care.

I don't think that months passed between Rhaegar's return and the Trident. Rhaegar came back to KL after the Battle of the Bells; Ned married Cat shortly after that battle and then stayed for 2 weeks in River Run before marching to war again. If Rhaegar had waited months to march, then the hosts would have met a lot closer to KL.

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, Tucu said:

I don't think that months passed between Rhaegar's return and the Trident. Rhaegar came back to KL after the Battle of the Bells; Ned married Cat shortly after that battle and then stayed for 2 weeks in River Run before marching to war again. If Rhaegar had waited months to march, then the hosts would have met a lot closer to KL.

There are continuity issues with the AGoT talk about Ned riding to war. The quote you are referring to suggests that Cat and Ned married before the war even began (only then does it make sense that Robb was born around the time the war ended). Not to mention that Ned would have had much better opportunities to hook up with a woman to father Jon if he had had time throughout the entire war, not just during the Trident campaign and whatever 'battles' were fought after the Sack.

The idea that Ned would claim to Robert and others that he had fathered Jon Snow only after his marriage to Catelyn also suggests that the original date for that marriage was supposed to be at the beginning of the Rebellion not in the middle of it. If Ned had had the opportunity to tell people he chanced upon some wench before he had any knowledge whether Lord Hoster would allow him to marry Catelyn in Brandon's place Jon's existence would much less controversial and dishonoring.

Yet Ned for some reason claims he fathered Jon at a time when Lyanna must have long been pregnant and Rhaegar pretty close to being killed.

But the new chronology George has now in place is that the Battle of the Bells marked a pause in the war while both sides regrouped. Prince Rhaegar trained new recruits in the Crownlands, assembling his armies and the rebels did something similar in the Riverlands. Or not. At one point Hoster was punishing some of the Targaryen loyalists among his vassals.

However, unlike some other people I don't think half a year or more passed between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident. That just doesn't make much sense.

But if we assume that Lyanna's son was only born around the time Ned arrived at the tower or shortly before that it makes little sense to assume Lyanna's pregnancy was very advanced by the time Rhaegar left. It would have taken him quite some time to get back (and later Ned to get there) and months definitely passed between his return and the Trident.

[IceFire125]

I believe Rhaegar was being very careful and he definitely did not fully trust his Father.  I'm of the opinion that's one of the main reason he commanded Gerold to stay at the tower and for Oswell and Arthur to travel back and guard the tower as well.  When and exactly where he ordered Oswell and Arthur to return to the tower must be somewhere near Kingslanding, but far enough to where the 2KG cannot be reached by royal soldiers/goldcloaks or servants in the area to where they might be recognized--thus out of the possibility of any orders they could be bound by Aerys.

However, I think in this passage of Jon and Ygritte, GRRM gave us enough subtle hints that there was heavy burden with Rhaegar as to what kind of thoughts went through in his head with regarding to how he would handle the situation with Lyanna.

And where do I stand? Jon did not know. To stay with Ygritte, he would need to become a wildling heart and soul. If he abandoned her to return to his duty, the Magnar might cut her heart out. And if he took her with him … assuming she would go, which was far from certain … well, he could scarcely bring her back to Castle Black to live among the brothers. A deserter and a wildling could expect no welcome anywhere in the Seven Kingdoms. 

**Where did Rhaegar stand? to stay with Lyanna, he would need to become a wildling heart and soul (which he did--married her in front of a weirwood)

**If he abandoned her to his duty return to KL, to his wife, to his children, Lyanna might be caught by royal soldiers sent by Aerys to hunt her down

**And if he took her with him ... assuming she would go (which she did) ... take her back to KL? to live among the royal court? in front of his wife, Elia? NO... both Rhaegar and Lyanna, will certainly not be welcomed, unless... (fill in your theories about "Aerys reconciling and approving Rhaegar's marriage with Lyanna--before returning back to KL" here)

Even after he left Lyanna at the tower, he is still with heavy heart and thought, if it was the right to do. But most importantly, GRRM create that subtle hint of his pledged to her in front of the weirwood tree.  The royal connection of Jon's legitimacy--in front of the gods.

Ygritte was much in his thoughts as well. He remembered the smell of her hair, the warmth of her body … and the look on her face as she slit the old man’s throat. You were wrong to love her, a voice whispered. You were wrong to leave her, a different voice insisted. He wondered if his father had been torn the same way, when he’d left Jon’s mother to return to Lady Catelyn. He was pledged to Lady Stark, and I am pledged to the Night’s Watch.

**Both Rhaegar and Jon pledged their vows in front of the old gods

 

[Tucu]

56 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There are continuity issues with the AGoT talk about Ned riding to war. The quote you are referring to suggests that Cat and Ned married before the war even began (only then does it make sense that Robb was born around the time the war ended). Not to mention that Ned would have had much better opportunities to hook up with a woman to father Jon if he had had time throughout the entire war, not just during the Trident campaign and whatever 'battles' were fought after the Sack.

The idea that Ned would claim to Robert and others that he had fathered Jon Snow only after his marriage to Catelyn also suggests that the original date for that marriage was supposed to be at the beginning of the Rebellion not in the middle of it. If Ned had had the opportunity to tell people he chanced upon some wench before he had any knowledge whether Lord Hoster would allow him to marry Catelyn in Brandon's place Jon's existence would much less controversial and dishonoring.

Yet Ned for some reason claims he fathered Jon at a time when Lyanna must have long been pregnant and Rhaegar pretty close to being killed.

But the new chronology George has now in place is that the Battle of the Bells marked a pause in the war while both sides regrouped. Prince Rhaegar trained new recruits in the Crownlands, assembling his armies and the rebels did something similar in the Riverlands. Or not. At one point Hoster was punishing some of the Targaryen loyalists among his vassals.

However, unlike some other people I don't think half a year or more passed between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident. That just doesn't make much sense.

But if we assume that Lyanna's son was only born around the time Ned arrived at the tower or shortly before that it makes little sense to assume Lyanna's pregnancy was very advanced by the time Rhaegar left. It would have taken him quite some time to get back (and later Ned to get there) and months definitely passed between his return and the Trident.

Hmm, I am more inclined to believe that the war had a long tail after the sacking of KL.  Apparently there were no significant battles between the Bells and the Trident, so why would Robert' forces stall for so long? Robert's and Jon's troops had been busy, but Ned's and Hoster's were fresh.

IIRC the war officially ended with the fall of Dragonstone, more than 9 months after the Trident. So there is plenty of time between their marriage early in the war and the end of the war for Cat to give birth.

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

You are right there. But Dragonstone is an island, much safer than King's Landing and Rhaegar's own seat and residence at that time. Elia would have been safe there not only from the rebels should they defeat Rhaegar but also from Aerys himself.

Rhaegar does leave Elia and their children on Dragonstone. We know this from TWoI&F. We also know Elia and the children end up in King's Landing before the Trident. We know that Elia and the children have come to court, likely having been summoned to court by Aerys while Rhaegar is hidden away from his father. We know this because after the Battle of the Bells before Rhaegar comes north and takes control of the army that Prince Lewyn is reminded by Aerys that "he held Elia" when he sent the Prince to take up command of ten thousand Dornish troops.

Quote

"The king reminded Lewyn Martell gracelessly that he held Elia and sent him to take command of the ten thousand Dornishmen coming up the Kingsroad. Jon Darry and Barristan Selmy rode to stoney Sept to rally what they could of griffins' men, and Prince Rhaegar returned from the south and persuaded his father to swallow his pride and summon my father." (ASoS 418) Jaime telling the history to Brienne.

Note that in Jaime's recounting Rhaegar arrives after Aerys warns Lewyn he has control of Elia.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That doesn't make any sense. Months passed between Rhaegar's return and the Trident, so Lyanna should have been perfectly capable to travel. Not to mention that no sane person would put a pregnant woman in such tower without any decent medical care.

We don't know how long of time passes between Rhaegar's return and the Trident, but even if Lyanna is not that far along in her pregnancy it would not be likely a long trip by horse is something Rhaegar would look on as a good idea for the health of the baby and Lyanna. But the most important reason for Lyanna to not go to King's Landing is she would become a hostage of Aerys against the rebels. As to medical care at the tower, we just don't know who is there as part of the "they" who find Ned holding Lyanna's body. It could well be a maester is with the party.

[Tucu]

5 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

We don't know how long of time passes between Rhaegar's return and the Trident, but even if Lyanna is not that far along in her pregnancy it would not be likely a long trip by horse is something Rhaegar would look on as a good idea for the health of the baby and Lyanna. But the most important reason for Lyanna to not go to King's Landing is she would become a hostage of Aerys against the rebels. As to medical care at the tower, we just don't know who is there as part of the "they" who find Ned holding Lyanna's body. It could well be a maester is with the party.

We are told that the rebellion lasted close to a year and that Dragonstone fell around 9 months after the Trident. So that leaves maybe 3 or 4 months for the rest of the war starting with the taking of Gulltown and the battles at Summerhall, continuing with Ashford, Bells and the Trident.

[Lord Varys]

30 minutes ago, IceFire125 said:

I believe Rhaegar was being very careful and he definitely did not fully trust his Father.  I'm of the opinion that's one of the main reason he commanded Gerold to stay at the tower and for Oswell and Arthur to travel back and guard the tower as well.  When and exactly where he ordered Oswell and Arthur to return to the tower must be somewhere near Kingslanding, but far enough to where the 2KG cannot be reached by royal soldiers/goldcloaks or servants in the area to where they might be recognized--thus out of the possibility of any orders they could be bound by Aerys.

There is no reason to assume (nor textual evidence to support the idea) that Rhaegar took Whent and Dayne with him close to KL only to send them then back to the tower. The very idea is ridiculous.

1. We have reason to believe that Rhaegar might not only have been with Whent, Dayne, Lyanna, and some servants when Hightower found them. We know Rhaegar left Dragonstone with six companions when he began his quests. Whoever was still with him could have served as his sworn shield on the way up to KL. Ser Richard Lonmouth actually is the perfect candidate for that.

2. We have no reason to believe Ser Gerold Hightower, the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard, traveled all by himself, either. If Hightower had some knights, squires, men-at-arms with him Rhaegar might have taken command of them and they might have formed his retinue on his way back to KL.

3. It is a pretty long way from the Red Mountains to KL. If Rhaegar wanted to move fast he would have taken roads. Roads lie close to castles, towns, villages, settlements and the like. People there would recognize Prince Rhaegar and his companions. If Prince Rhaegar had ridden with some Kingsguard in tow then word about that would have reached Aerys' ears sooner or later, long before they came even close to KL (not to mention that the Prince of Dragonstone would most likely not sleep in some field or in some hedges along the road - he would be the honored guests of the lords along the road, and of villagers, inn keeps, and the like). That would have provided Aerys with every opportunity to give any Kingsguard in Rhaegar's tow new orders if he so chose. Simply by sending a letter to a castle along the road and commanding the lord there to deliver his orders to Rhaegar and his companions via a messenger.

4. Not to mention, you know, that Ser Oswell Whent actually already plotted against his king when he acted as Rhaegar's messenger in the Harrenhal affair. Ser Oswell must have known what the true purpose of the planned tourney was to be able to tell his brother Lord Walter about it. If the man was capable of doing that there is little reason to believe that he was not capable of actually ignoring an order given to him by Aerys. Whent could have gone with Rhaegar right in front of the Iron Throne only to desert Aerys later on and return to the tower (although that most certainly did not happen).

20 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Hmm, I am more inclined to believe that the war had a long tail after the sacking of KL.  Apparently there were no significant battles between the Bells and the Trident, so why would Robert' forces stall for so long? Robert's and Jon's troops had been busy, but Ned's and Hoster's were fresh.

It doesn't make much sense, you are right. Robert's host might have been mostly destroyed but there is no reason to believe that Ned's, Hoster's, and the men Jon brought across the mountains were in bad shape. There is a chance that they did not have so many troops, though. We have no clue how many men Ned brought down (he would have been forced to call his banners very quickly) nor do we know how many men fell during the fighting in the Vale.

If Hoster still had to raise his troops after the Battle of the Bells (he could have been at Stoney Sept only with a smaller force mostly made up of Tully men) as well as punish/attack remaining Targaryen loyalists in his lands then there is some reason why the major battles stopped for a while. The rebels might have feared they could not prevail against the Targaryen armies in the Crownlands, especially not if they expected that the Tyrell hosts would join them at that point.

Not to mention that at this point the plan might not yet have been to crown Robert.

But the whole line about Ned leaving Riverrun to ride to war shortly after the wedding makes still no real sense. Where the hell would he have gone? To fight some small battles in the Riverlands? And why did he not return to Riverrun thereafter? Wouldn't that have been their base while they assembled their forces prior to the Trident?

20 minutes ago, Tucu said:

IIRC the war officially ended with the fall of Dragonstone, more than 9 months after the Trident. So there is plenty of time between the Bells and the end of the war for Cat to give birth.

That is not really the official dating for the end of the war. Especially not considering that Ned himself tells us that he fought the last battles of the war down south - meaning now, apparently, breaking the siege of Storm's End and dealing with the KG at the tower. We don't know anything about any other 'battles' down south after the Sack.

18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Rhaegar does leave Elia and their children on Dragonstone. We know this from TWoI&F. We also know Elia and the children end up there before the Trident. We know that Elia and the children have come to court, likely having been summoned to court by Aerys while Rhaegar is hidden away from his father. We know this because after the Battle of the Bells before Rhaegar comes north and takes control of the army that Prince Lewyn is reminded by Aerys that "he held Elia" when he sent the Prince to take up command of ten thousand Dornish troops.

Note that in Jaime's recounting Rhaegar arrives after Aerys warns Lewyn he has control of Elia.

I know all that. My point only referred to the time after Rhaegar's arrival in KL. Technically he should have been able to send Elia and the children back to Dragonstone if he so pleased. He indicates to Jaime he is formally in charge of things being able to allow his father to keep Jaime. That suggests he could even command the Kingsguard against his father's wishes. But if that's so then he should have been able to assign Kingsguard or other men he trusted to his wife and children. Or he should have been able to send them back to Dragonstone.

It is definitely odd that he did neither when he had the chance not to mention that he left three Kingsguard instead with Lyanna.

18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

We don't know how long of time passes between Rhaegar's return and the Trident, but even if Lyanna is not that far along in her pregnancy it would not be likely a long trip by horse is something Rhaegar would look on as a good idea for the health of the baby and Lyanna.

That is not really a good argument considering that we see a lot of people traveling while pregnant in this world. Elia most likely was pregnant with Aegon (and not exactly in her first or second month) when she went to Harrenhal) and Daenerys traveled all day long when she was pregnant with Rhaego. Granted, the Dothraki have different customs but I do not recall that a woman in Westeros is not allowed to travel when she is pregnant on regular basis. Rhaenyra can't ride Syrax for quite some time after her stillbirth - but then, she had a stillbirth.

Even if we buy the idea that Lyanna could not travel far or quickly because of her pregnancy there is little reason for her to give birth in a tower in the middle of nowhere.

18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

But the most important reason for Lyanna to not go to King's Landing is she would become a hostage of Aerys against the rebels. As to medical care at the tower, we just don't know who is there as part of the "they" who find Ned holding Lyanna's body. It could well be a maester is with the party.

Well, considering that George recently supposedly confirmed that no man left alive from tower aside from Ned and Howland such a maester would then have to leave before they arrived or died before they left. But I don't think they had a maester.

In fact, I'd not be surprised if part of the tower twist in the end was that Lyanna and Rhaegar had been in love, once, but that their relationship soured quite a bit once Rhaegar decided to take his father's side and fight the rebels. At that point Lyanna might have become Rhaegar's prisoner, and the knights at the tower her gaolers. If Rhaegar had feared Lyanna might interfere with his plans this might have been reason enough for him to keep her in the middle of nowhere rather than in a Targaryen loyalists stronghold.

[SFDanny]

29 minutes ago, Tucu said:

We are told that the rebellion lasted close to a year and that Dragonstone fell around 9 months after the Trident. So that leaves maybe 3 or 4 months for the rest of the war starting with the taking of Gulltown and the battles at Summerhall, continuing with Ashford, Bells and the Trident.

The one year estimate comes from Ned's thoughts about the time from the start of the rebellion to the sack of King's Landing. The time from the sack to the taking of Dragonstone by Stannis is indeed about nine months later. This makes the time from the start of the rebellion to the fall of Dragonstone about 21 months, not 12.

[Tucu]

12 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

The one year estimate comes from Ned's thoughts about the time from the start of the rebellion to the sack of King's Landing. The time from the sack to the taking of Dragonstone by Stannis is indeed about nine months later. This makes the time from the start of the rebellion to the fall of Dragonstone about 21 months, not 12.

Ah, you are right that Ned is counting until KL. I guess we will have to accept that RR was a low level war with only 4 major battles plus the sack of King's Landing

[IceFire125]

55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

In fact, I'd not be surprised if part of the tower twist in the end was that Lyanna and Rhaegar had been in love, once, but that their relationship soured quite a bit once Rhaegar decided to take his father's side and fight the rebels. At that point Lyanna might have become Rhaegar's prisoner, and the knights at the tower her gaolers. If Rhaegar had feared Lyanna might interfere with his plans this might have been reason enough for him to keep her in the middle of nowhere rather than in a Targaryen loyalists stronghold.

Ahh yes! This I agree.  And it would be very GRRM-like for him to do this.

It's the perfect parallel with how he did with Jon:

Jon played a role, a wildling, it's his duty to the NW (through Qhorin), but he didn't expect to fall in love with Ygritte.  Rhaegar, played a role, a protector, lover, husband, it's the duty to his "prophecy" (to fulfill the pact of Ice and Fire, a Targaryen marrying a Stark), however, he also didn't plan to fall in love with Lyanna.

Jon could not kill the man to prove he's a wildling, returns to Castle Black.  Rhaegar could not allow the rebels to take over the Targaryen crown, he needed to defend it.  This is where GRRM had Jon thought this line out on the way back to Castle Black (Rhaegar--Kingslanding). "You were wrong to love her, a voice whispered. You were wrong to leave her, a different voice insisted".  

Unknown to Jon, the duty to his NW, the realm (to save men from the Others) betrayed him and he ended up being "killed".  Unknown to Rhaegar, thinking confidently that he will win and will call a Council when he returns, was also killed.

Yet for both, the culmination of the prophecy requires for Jon to be reborn.  Rhaegar indeed had to die so that everything that would transpire after his passing had to happen.  Thinking that his role would be to fulfill it, but it would be his son, Jon, that would unknowingly play that role.

 

 

 

[Kal-L]

5 hours ago, IceFire125 said:

However, I think in this passage of Jon and Ygritte, GRRM gave us enough subtle hints that there was heavy burden with Rhaegar as to what kind of thoughts went through in his head with regarding to how he would handle the situation with Lyanna.

And where do I stand? Jon did not know. To stay with Ygritte, he would need to become a wildling heart and soul. If he abandoned her to return to his duty, the Magnar might cut her heart out. And if he took her with him … assuming she would go, which was far from certain … well, he could scarcely bring her back to Castle Black to live among the brothers. A deserter and a wildling could expect no welcome anywhere in the Seven Kingdoms. 

**Where did Rhaegar stand? to stay with Lyanna, he would need to become a wildling heart and soul (which he did--married her in front of a weirwood)

**If he abandoned her to his duty return to KL, to his wife, to his children, Lyanna might be caught by royal soldiers sent by Aerys to hunt her down

**And if he took her with him ... assuming she would go (which she did) ... take her back to KL? to live among the royal court? in front of his wife, Elia? NO... both Rhaegar and Lyanna, will certainly not be welcomed, unless... (fill in your theories about "Aerys reconciling and approving Rhaegar's marriage with Lyanna--before returning back to KL" here)

I like to read your analysis through passages from Jon but reading your post I was thinking, wouldn't Rhaegar be worried the rebels would be a danger for Lyanna the same way Magnar and the Wildlings might have been one for Ygritte despite being her owns ? All of this confirming his idea that the he and Lyanna couldn't expect to be welcomed anywhere in the warring Seven Kingdoms.

[IceFire125]

2 hours ago, Kal-L said:

I like to read your analysis through passages from Jon but reading your post I was thinking, wouldn't Rhaegar be worried the rebels would be a danger for Lyanna the same way Magnar and the Wildlings might have been one for Ygritte despite being her owns ? All of this confirming his idea that the he and Lyanna couldn't expect to be welcomed anywhere in the warring Seven Kingdoms.

True, but I was responding to Lord Varys, who brought up that the love that Rhaegar and Lyanna shared, before he left for Kingslanding was not all smooth sailing, even though in the deepest of hearts, Rhaegar and Lyanna may have loved each other.

Rhaegar needed to go back to KL on the order of his Father and king, to lead the royal army.  That had to be the main message that the Lord Commander brought to the party there at the tower.  And Lyanna may or may not have heard that, however, Rhaegar revealed that he had to answer the king's summon.

It's logical that Rhaegar had to be brutally honest to Lyanna.  That upon his returning, he will have to lead the royal forces against the rebels, which include, Ned, her brother's forces.  Rhaegar may have promised Lyanna that he will try to not kill her brother, but made no guarantees.  This may lead to Lyanna feeling afraid for her brother, she may even be angry with Rhaegar, to not make a promise to make sure Ned lives (the same sincerity of hope that was asked of with Ned, regarding Jon's safety).

Rhaegar may even placed an order to make sure Lyanna do not make harsh decisions to reach out for her brother (thus Lyanna being a "prisoner"), leading to her harming herself and the soon to be born child.  This will probably, leave an agency of Lyanna's to reach out.  Maybe Ashara, one of the midwife? a servant? or someone who is loyal and felt sorry for her, clued in a message via a raven, to where it landed on Ned's hand, leading to Ned knowing where the tower of joy was located.

Lyanna was not truly free, thus a prisoner for her own safety... but the presence of Kingsguard??...

Val fell in beside him. “So … I brought you Tormund, as I said I would. What now? Am I to be returned to my old cell?”
“Your old cell is occupied. Queen Selyse has claimed the King’s Tower, for her own. Do you remember Hardin’s Tower?”
“The one that looks about to collapse?”
“It’s looked that way for a hundred years. I’ve had the top floor made ready for you, my lady. You will have more room than in the King’s Tower, though you may not be as comfortable. No one has ever called it Hardin’s Palace.”
“I would choose freedom over comfort every time.”
“Freedom of the castle you shall have, but I regret to say you must remain a captive. I can promise that you will not be troubled by unwanted visitors, however. My own men guard Hardin’s Tower, not the queen’s. And Wun Wun sleeps in the entry hall.”
“A giant as protector? Even Dalla could not boast of that.”

**Now, did GRRM gave us a hint that Rhaegar did not want "unwanted visitors" as well?? I believe so.  This correlates to the KG behavior with Ned, as Arthur unsheathed his sword, expecting a fight, versus Ned approaching with attempt to parley for them to go and escape to Dragonstone, where Prince Viserys (now should be king) is located with their queen.  However, the parley attempt was unsuccessful.

All in all we see that when Jon imprisoned Val at to the tower it's actually quite serious, however, Jon attempt to make that tower as comfortable as it could, given the circumstances.  We know that Val expressed that she values "freedom" versus "comfort" every time, yet, the way she was with Jon is of playful and someone that trusts his decision to have his men guard the tower.

And this tiny gem, Theon's chapter in Clash...

“And why would that be? I’ve had lords before. They’re made the same as other men.”
“Have you ever had a prince?” he asked her. “When you’re wrinkled and grey and your teats hang past your belly, you can tell your children’s children that once you loved a king.”

...

“Is it love you fancy?” He’d decided that he liked this wench, whoever she was; her sharp wit was a welcome respite from the damp gloom of Pyke. “Shall I name my longship after you, and play you the high harp, and keep you in a tower room in my castle with only jewels to wear, like a princess in a song?”

---

After safely fleeing his Father's royal soldiers.  Their love was not mutual at first, Rhaegar had to seduce Lyanna and was probably drunk, but knew of his actions...

 

“Alayne.” Her aunt’s singer stood over her. “Sweet Alayne. I am Marillion. I saw you come in from the rain. The night is chill and wet. Let me warm you.” 
The old dog raised his head and growled, but the singer gave him a cuff and sent him slinking off, whimpering.
“Marillion?” she said, uncertain. “You are … kind to think of me, but … pray forgive me. I am very tired.”
“And very beautiful. All night I have been making songs for you in my head. A lay for your eyes, a ballad for your lips, a duet to your breasts. I will not sing them, though. They were poor things, unworthy of such beauty.” He sat on her bed and put his hand on her leg. “Let me sing to you with my body instead.”
She caught a whiff of his breath. “You’re drunk.”
“I never get drunk. Mead only makes me merry. I am on fire.” His hand slipped up to her thigh. “And you as well.” “Unhand me. You forget yourself.”
“Mercy. I have been singing love songs for hours. My blood is stirred. And yours, I know … there’s no wench half so lusty as one bastard born. Are you wet for me?”
“I’m a maiden,” she protested.
“Truly? Oh, Alayne, Alayne, my fair maid, give me the gift of your innocence. You will thank the gods you did. I’ll have you singing louder than the Lady Lysa.”

But to save her honor...

 

Jeyne had me taken to her own bed, and she nursed me until the fever passed. And she was with me when the Greatjon brought me the news of … of Winterfell. Bran and Rickon.” He seemed to have trouble saying his brothers’ names. “That night, she … she comforted me, Mother.”
Catelyn did not need to be told what sort of comfort Jeyne Westerling had offered her son. “And you wed her the next day.”
He looked her in the eyes, proud and miserable all at once. “It was the only honorable thing to do. She’s gentle and sweet, Mother, she will make me a good wife.”

Already in love, Rhaegar and Lyanna discussing about how he would convey what he has done to the court, to his wife and future queen, Elia, and the thoughts of Lyanna as his new and second wife.

 

“How did you fare with Tormund?” asked Val. (Lyanna: how do you fare with your Father's soldiers?)
“Ask me a year from now. The hard part still awaits me. The part where I convince mine own to eat this meal I’ve cooked for them. None of them are going to like the taste, I fear.” (Rhaegar: ask me a year from now, the hard part--trying to convince them, that I didn't abduct you--still awaits me)
“Let me help.” (Lyanna: Let me help)
“You have. You brought me Tormund.” (Rhaegar: you have, we're man and wife now)
“I can do more.” (Lyanna: I can do more--bear a child)
Why not? thought Jon. (Rhaegar thinking, Why not? the Starks have the blood of the Kings of Winter, could she be the one, the ice to the fire in the prophecy? could she be the one to fulfill the old pact of Ice and Fire, set up by Prince Jacaerys?) They are all convinced she is a princess. Val looked the part and rode as if she had been born on horseback. A warrior princess, he decided, not some willowy creature who sits up in a tower, brushing her hair and waiting for some knight to rescue her. (The lady is honorable, I saw her as she took down the knights of the squires who dishonored her Father's bannerman) “I must inform the queen of this agreement,” (I have to speak to Elia, she must know about this, but would she agree to it?) he said. “You are welcome to come meet her, if you can find it in yourself to bend a knee.” It would never do to offend Her Grace before he even opened his mouth.
“May I laugh when I kneel?” (Lyanna hearing the idea of the prophecy that is about to come true, maybe made fun of it? laughed and not thinking about it seriously at first)
“You may not. This is no game. A river of blood runs between our peoples, old and deep and red. Stannis Baratheon is one of the few who favors admitting wildlings to the realm. I need his queen’s support for what I’ve done.” (Rhaegar: this is no game, my Father is mad, the prophecy will come true, the realm needs to be saved I need your help, you must bear me a child)
Val’s playful smile died. “You have my word, Lord Snow. I will be a proper wildling princess for your queen.” (Lyanna: You have my word, I will be a proper lady when I meet your wife, princess Elia)

I think it makes perfect sense.  

 

[SFDanny]

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I know all that. My point only referred to the time after Rhaegar's arrival in KL. Technically he should have been able to send Elia and the children back to Dragonstone if he so pleased. He indicates to Jaime he is formally in charge of things being able to allow his father to keep Jaime. That suggests he could even command the Kingsguard against his father's wishes. But if that's so then he should have been able to assign Kingsguard or other men he trusted to his wife and children. Or he should have been able to send them back to Dragonstone.

It is definitely odd that he did neither when he had the chance not to mention that he left three Kingsguard instead with Lyanna.

Sorry, LV, I know you know this stuff, but I was trying to point out the importance of Aerys using Elia as a hostage against Dorne before Rhaegar arrives to take over the command of the royalist troops. I'm not sure why it is then a stretch to imagine he would do the same with his son. It seems likely to me, that one of the reasons Rhaegar leaves the Tower of Joy is that his father threatens, perhaps subtly, perhaps not so subtly, Rhaegar's wife and children. If we are to take his boast to Prince Lewyn that he "held Elia" as a threat, as obviously Jaime thinks it is, then why would he not tell his son the same thing? If nothing else, the long held threat that he can replace Rhaegar and his line with Viserys has now been augmented by the physical control of Elia, Rhaenys, and Aegon. If true, there is no ability to send his family back to Dragonstone. They are there until Rhaegar fulfills his duty to defeat the rebels. Not that Rhaegar doesn't also have an interest in defeating the rebellion, but it seems to me he would rather do so without his father holding his family hostage.

With regard to what the discussion with Jaime on the occasion of Rhaegar's departure from King's Landing reveals about his power to order the Kingsguard to do his wishes, I would disagree this shows he could override his father's orders. Rhaegar seems to be held on a leash in the form of his children and wife being held by his father. He can order anything he wishes - until it contradicts something Aerys wishes. The king wants Jaime to stay with him, as hostage to Tywin's good behavior. Rhaegar shows he knows he can't go against his father in this. The king wants Elia and her children held as hostage against Dorne, and, obviously Rhaegar knows he can't order they be sent back to Dragonstone as they are likely held hostage against Rhaegar's own good behavior. Not so odd at all.

I think he leaves the three Kingsguard at the Tower because he trusts those specific men with Lyanna and her expected newborn. I think we have evidence that shows Dayne and Whent to be Rhaegar partisans, and I think the orders the White Bull carries to the tower are the last straw for the Lord Commander. Holding his own grandchildren hostage is a bridge too far into insanity even for Hightower.

19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not really a good argument considering that we see a lot of people traveling while pregnant in this world. Elia most likely was pregnant with Aegon (and not exactly in her first or second month) when she went to Harrenhal) and Daenerys traveled all day long when she was pregnant with Rhaego. Granted, the Dothraki have different customs but I do not recall that a woman in Westeros is not allowed to travel when she is pregnant on regular basis. Rhaenyra can't ride Syrax for quite some time after her stillbirth - but then, she had a stillbirth.

Even if we buy the idea that Lyanna could not travel far or quickly because of her pregnancy there is little reason for her to give birth in a tower in the middle of nowhere.

Well, considering that George recently supposedly confirmed that no man left alive from tower aside from Ned and Howland such a maester would then have to leave before they arrived or died before they left. But I don't think they had a maester.

In fact, I'd not be surprised if part of the tower twist in the end was that Lyanna and Rhaegar had been in love, once, but that their relationship soured quite a bit once Rhaegar decided to take his father's side and fight the rebels. At that point Lyanna might have become Rhaegar's prisoner, and the knights at the tower her gaolers. If Rhaegar had feared Lyanna might interfere with his plans this might have been reason enough for him to keep her in the middle of nowhere rather than in a Targaryen loyalists stronghold.

Yeah, I don't buy the "confirmation" to be anything more than saying only two men - Ned and Howland - survived the combat. Serving men who aren't part of the fight aren't included in what I think Martin is trying to say here. Not that means there was a maester there, but only I don't take George's remarks as ruling it out. It would be the normal course of preparation for a aristocratic birth for there to be a maester in attendance. Surely there can be found a Rhaegar loyalist amongst the maesters who the Crown Prince would trust to deliver his child. I've always favored Marwyn as the prime candidate for this role, but without more information it is pure speculation.

The reason for Lyanna to give birth in hiding is clear. Both sides in the war, and many parties with different interests on both of those sides, would very much like to have Lyanna in their control. By leaving Lyanna to give birth at the Tower, outside of anyone's control but his own, Rhaegar stops the danger to Lyanna and her child being captured by the rebels, the king, or the Dornish would bring.

I do agree the Dothraki are not an example the Westerosi noble class would look to for health information concerning pregnant women.

edit: from a quick google search:

Quote

Is it safe to ride horseback during pregnancy?

Raul Artal

ob-gyn

It's not a good idea. The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists recommends avoiding activities that entail a high risk of falling or abdominal trauma.

That said, during the first trimester, the baby is in your pelvic girdle, a bony structure that offers some protection if you were to fall. So if it's early in your pregnancy, you're an experienced horseback rider, and the horse is only walking while you're on its back, the danger to your baby is low.

But as your pregnancy progresses, the risk of serious injury – to you and your baby – increases. If you get thrown from or kicked by a horse after your first trimester, once the baby has moved higher up in the abdomen, there's little to protect the baby from harm.

What's more, the jostling motion of horseback riding can increase your risk of placental abruption, a serious pregnancy complication in which the placenta separates from the uterus.

http://www.babycenter.com/404_is-it-safe-to-ride-horseback-during-pregnancy_1246863.bc

tons of this stuff out there. Almost all of it says, no, don't do it.

Of course, that doesn't mean that is the best medical advice in Martin's world of aristocratic Westeros. Among the few examples of pregnant ladies of the noble classes, they aren't any I recall riding horseback. I'll have to do more study and get back to you on that. Certainly, there are alternative was to travel - boat, palanquin, wagon, that may be safer, and we know some pregnant women traveled to King's Landing, for instance, for the wedding. But by horse back, I can't think of any off hand. Clearly, the farther along one gets in a pregnancy the greater the danger.

[Ygrain]

IceFire, I think that for love gone sour there may be an even closer parallel with Jorah and Lynesse - a couple of week's bliss,and then a hard crash with reality, perhaps after the news from KL reached them. I'm bringing this up because Jorah's one-time performance at a tourney mirror's Rhaegar's, so it is not implausible that the parallel goes even further.

[IceFire125]

24 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

IceFire, I think that for love gone sour there may be an even closer parallel with Jorah and Lynesse - a couple of week's bliss,and then a hard crash with reality, perhaps after the news from KL reached them. I'm bringing this up because Jorah's one-time performance at a tourney mirror's Rhaegar's, so it is not implausible that the parallel goes even further.

I agree with how Jorah had to win the tourney to prove himself to Lynesse (Rhaegar to Lyanna).  

However, the falling in love had to be much deeper and it had to involve Lyanna feeling indebted to Rhaegar first (saving her from Aerys' soldiers--means of an escape from her betrothal to Robert), but this happens after the tourney.

Ygritte was stolen by and loved Jon, but started by him not killing her [had to let her go before she came back to him].

Val in the process or already being stolen by and may be in love with Jon, but that started by him giving her people "hope" [had to let her go North before she came back to him].

After crowning her tQoLaB, Rhaegar also had to let her go as well [before she came back to him].

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

@SFDanny

The problem there is that George gives us contradicting hints, basically. Aerys is using Elia and the children as hostages against the Martells. Rhaegar not assigning any men to his wife and children nor sending them back to his own castle. Rhaegar is willing to come back and command his armies. Aerys is in charge of the city and names new Hands who are not Rhaegar yet Rhaegar is the one in charge of the army. The Kingsguard is supposed to be loyal to Aerys yet Rhaegar glues three of them to the tower and takes another three to the Trident giving Jaime the impression he is in charge of the kingdom, basically.

Not to mention the fact that a man who is commanding the army like Rhaegar is should have sufficient power to depose his father in a heart beat. All he would need for that is a few hundred men he could trust considering that his father has become an unkempt paranoid lunatic who is far and wide known as the Mad King.

I honestly don't think how to reconcile all that yet. But my gut tells me that Aerys did not threaten the life of Elia and the children when dealing with Rhaegar nor did Aerys force his son to lead the armies. I think he would have asked him to do that. And Rhaegar agreed.

As to Lyanna:

She could have taken a cart or a carriage. We are talking royalty here. The fact that she could not or should not ride doesn't mean there weren't any other ways to get her rather quickly to KL. Not to mention that there is a pretty good chance she was still in her 2-3 month at the time Rhaegar left. If it took Rhaegar a month to return to the capital and Ned a month to reach the tower there would be about four months for the remainder of the war.