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Ygrain

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22 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Rhaegar does leave Elia and their children on Dragonstone. We know this from TWoI&F. We also know Elia and the children end up in King's Landing before the Trident. We know that Elia and the children have come to court, likely having been summoned to court by Aerys while Rhaegar is hidden away from his father. We know this because after the Battle of the Bells before Rhaegar comes north and takes control of the army that Prince Lewyn is reminded by Aerys that "he held Elia" when he sent the Prince to take up command of ten thousand Dornish troops.

Note that in Jaime's recounting Rhaegar arrives after Aerys warns Lewyn he has control of Elia.

We don't know how long of time passes between Rhaegar's return and the Trident, but even if Lyanna is not that far along in her pregnancy it would not be likely a long trip by horse is something Rhaegar would look on as a good idea for the health of the baby and Lyanna. But the most important reason for Lyanna to not go to King's Landing is she would become a hostage of Aerys against the rebels. As to medical care at the tower, we just don't know who is there as part of the "they" who find Ned holding Lyanna's body. It could well be a maester is with the party.

There is another possibility.  When Aerys sent Hightower to fetch Rhaegar, he also told Prince Lewyn that Elia was a hostage against Dorne's behavior.  Why would he also not want Lyanna to be a hostage against Ned's and Robert's behavior.  So suppose Aerys gave the following order to Hightower:

 

"Go find my son Rhaegar and tell him to return to King's Landing immediately.  If you see Lyanna Stark, seize her as a hostage.  That will make Rhaegar and the Lords Barratheon and Stark think twice about crossing me."

 

Then suppose Hightower arrived at the toj to find Rhaegar there with Lyanna and that Lyanna was unable to travel safely.  He would send Rhaegar home.  Rhaegar would then say:. "I understand you have to obey my father's order.  Obey mine too:. Keep this woman safe in this tower and whatever happens, don't let her fall into the hands of the rebels."

That would explain why all 3 KG stayed at the tower and why they fought against Ned.  And if they won and Lyanna lived, their next duty would be to get the hostage to their new king, Viserys, which would protect Viserys from "harm or threat" by deterring the Houses Stark and Barratheon from any assault on Dragonstone.

It would also make the question of whether Lyanna was pregnant, and whether Rhaegar even knew or thought that she was pregnant, irrelevant for purposes of explaining the actions of the KG.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

The problem there is that George gives us contradicting hints, basically. Aerys is using Elia and the children as hostages against the Martells. Rhaegar not assigning any men to his wife and children nor sending them back to his own castle. Rhaegar is willing to come back and command his armies. Aerys is in charge of the city and names new Hands who are not Rhaegar yet Rhaegar is the one in charge of the army. The Kingsguard is supposed to be loyal to Aerys yet Rhaegar glues for of them to the tower and takes another three to the Trident giving Jaime the impression he is in charge of the kingdom, basically.

Not to mention the fact that a man who is commanding the army like Rhaegar is should have sufficient power to depose his father in a heart beat. All he would need for that is a few hundred men he could trust considering that his father has become an unkempt paranoid lunatic who is far and wide known as the Mad King.

I honestly don't think how to reconcile all that yet. But my gut tells me that Aerys did not threaten the life of Elia and the children when dealing with Rhaegar nor did Aerys force his son to lead the armies. I think he would have asked him to do that. And Rhaegar agreed.

As to Lyanna:

She could have taken a cart or a carriage. We are talking royalty here. The fact that she could not or should not ride doesn't mean there weren't any other ways to get her rather quickly to KL. Not to mention that there is a pretty good chance she was still in her 2-3 month at the time Rhaegar left. If it took Rhaegar a month to return to the capital and Ned a month to reach the tower there would be about four months for the remainder of the war.

The hints are only contradicting if one assumes Rhaegar has all the authority you suggest, and that he basically goes along with his wife and children being held hostage against Dorne. Given the tensions we already know exist between father and son that date back to well before this time, I think these assumptions aren't well founded. If one assumes Rhaegar does not have the power to overrule his father concerning where his own family should be, and who controls their safety, then the seeming contradictions disappear. I'd suggest it is clear that Rhaegar's authority is in his command of the Targaryen forces in the field. Not in the control of those in charge of King's Landing (the Gold Cloaks) or necessarily in the allocation of duties to the members of the Kingsguard. Could he fight with his father at this time and win? Possibly, but he has a greater threat in the rebel army, and if even he wins in a fight with his father it could mean the death of his family. It makes more sense for Rhaegar to do as he did. Try to win against the rebels and return as the victorious general calling for a Great Council to resolve the problems of the realm. It's what he tells Jaime he means to do, and it makes sense given all of the problems he faces.

As an aside, given all the circumstances above, it also makes sense for Rhaegar to try to smuggle his family out of King's Landing and outside of his father's control. This, plays into an old theory of mine I call "two princes in the tower" but that's for another discussion.

Regarding Lyanna, let me make it clear I don't think the main reason she isn't moved isn't because of her health or the health of her baby. I agree with your timeline that is likely Lyanna is early on in her pregnancy. The reason she isn't moved, as I said earlier, is that Rhaegar wants to keep her outside the control of other forces - including Aerys, Prince Doran, or any of the rebel leaders. Aerys would use her as a hostage both against the rebels and against Rhaegar's behavior. Doran would use her as a balance against Elia and her children's status, and against Rhaegar. If the rebels get ahold of her they have a possible valuable hostage back, and if they know she is pregnant with Rhaegar's child, as a hostage against Rhaegar himself. In short, Rhaegar has every interest in keeping Lyanna hidden away and in his own control with men he trusts completely.

That doesn't mean that concerns about Lyanna's health and the health of her child don't become crucial latter on. Which also argues that it would be likely a maester was at the tower. If there is any warning of complications, there would be a need to get a maester there as fast as possible. And as I said earlier, having one in attendance for an aristocratic birth is the norm shown in the books.

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2 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

There is another possibility.  When Aerys sent Hightower to fetch Rhaegar, he also told Prince Lewyn that Elia was a hostage against Dorne's behavior.  Why would he also not want Lyanna to be a hostage against Ned's and Robert's behavior.  So suppose Aerys gave the following order to Hightower:

 

"Go find my son Rhaegar and tell him to return to King's Landing immediately.  If you see Lyanna Stark, seize her as a hostage.  That will make Rhaegar and the Lords Barratheon and Stark think twice about crossing me."

 

Then suppose Hightower arrived at the toj to find Rhaegar there with Lyanna and that Lyanna was unable to travel safely.  He would send Rhaegar home.  Rhaegar would then say:. "I understand you have to obey my father's order.  Obey mine too:. Keep this woman safe in this tower and whatever happens, don't let her fall into the hands of the rebels."

That would explain why all 3 KG stayed at the tower and why they fought against Ned.  And if they won and Lyanna lived, their next duty would be to get the hostage to their new king, Viserys, which would protect Viserys from "harm or threat" by deterring the Houses Stark and Barratheon from any assault on Dragonstone.

It would also make the question of whether Lyanna was pregnant, and whether Rhaegar even knew or thought that she was pregnant, irrelevant for purposes of explaining the actions of the KG.

@The Twinslayer 

The problem I find in most of these kind of scenarios is they really aren't needed. It assumes Rhaegar must give an order that circumvents his father's wishes in deed but not in word. I think the evidence shows that is not the case with Dayne and Whent. They help with Harrenhal and its preparations, and they are present with Rhaegar when he runs off with Lyanna. Both are against what Aerys wanted, but they follow Rhaegar's lead anyway. That only leaves Rhaegar with how does he get around Hightower? My take is he can't. Hightower is no fool and he isn't going to follow an order from the Crown Prince that is against the King - no matter how cleverly worded - unless he has decided his loyalties lay with Rhaegar and not his insane father. This is not a decision of standing by while Aerys tortures Brandon and Rickard. This is a decision about supporting a clearly mad king or the last hope of the Targaryen dynasty. I think the White Bull makes that decision, and if Rhaegar gives him an order that removes him from immediate control from Aerys, I think Hightower is fulling aware of what is going on and is fine with it. It may have been a long time coming, but the Lord Commander makes a decision about who to support - Aerys or Rhaegar - and he does so before the Crown Prince leaves and goes north.

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On 21.8.2016 at 0:30 AM, SFDanny said:

The hints are only contradicting if one assumes Rhaegar has all the authority you suggest, and that he basically goes along with his wife and children being held hostage against Dorne. Given the tensions we already know exist between father and son that date back to well before this time, I think these assumptions aren't well founded.

Aerys might have not been serious in his threats towards Elia and the children. And Rhaegar might have known that and went along along with it because he knew that the Martells threatening not to support the Targaryens was due to the whole Lyanna affair he was responsible for.

Or Aerys threatened Lewyn and Doran before Rhaegar did return to KL.

I really think that Aerys rather than Rhaegar trying to keep the Dornish in line (and Aerys later believing the Dornish have betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident) is a hint that neither Doran nor Lewyn were willing to interact or work with Rhaegar at this time.

On 21.8.2016 at 0:30 AM, SFDanny said:

If one assumes Rhaegar does not have the power to overrule his father concerning where his own family should be, and who controls their safety, then the seeming contradictions disappear. I'd suggest it is clear that Rhaegar's authority is in his command of the Targaryen forces in the field. Not in the control of those in charge of King's Landing (the Gold Cloaks) or necessarily in the allocation of duties to the members of the Kingsguard.

But he does give the indication that it was his decision, not his father's, that Darry, Selmy, and Martell went with him to the Trident.

And power resides where people believe it resides. If Rhaegar was in charge of the Targaryen army then he could easily enough seen by the people who count (i.e. the soldiers) that he was in charge of everything. 

On 21.8.2016 at 0:30 AM, SFDanny said:

Could he fight with his father at this time and win? Possibly, but he has a greater threat in the rebel army, and if even he wins in a fight with his father it could mean the death of his family. It makes more sense for Rhaegar to do as he did. Try to win against the rebels and return as the victorious general calling for a Great Council to resolve the problems of the realm. It's what he tells Jaime he means to do, and it makes sense given all of the problems he faces.

There is actually no hint that Rhaegar wants to call a Great Council after the war. He just says he wants to make changes. The idea that a Great Council would have had any success when Rhaegar had just won a bloody battle doesn't make a lot of sense. Such a council couldn't have included the Baratheons, Tullys, Arryns, and Starks in a meaningful manner.

On 21.8.2016 at 0:30 AM, SFDanny said:

Regarding Lyanna, let me make it clear I don't think the main reason she isn't moved isn't because of her health or the health of her baby. I agree with your timeline that is likely Lyanna is early on in her pregnancy. The reason she isn't moved, as I said earlier, is that Rhaegar wants to keep her outside the control of other forces - including Aerys, Prince Doran, or any of the rebel leaders. Aerys would use her as a hostage both against the rebels and against Rhaegar's behavior. Doran would use her as a balance against Elia and her children's status, and against Rhaegar. If the rebels get ahold of her they have a possible valuable hostage back, and if they know she is pregnant with Rhaegar's child, as a hostage against Rhaegar himself. In short, Rhaegar has every interest in keeping Lyanna hidden away and in his own control with men he trusts completely.

But then, Rhaegar was some time at KL before he left for the Trident. Why couldn't he kept her there under his own command guarded by his own men? And then sent her back to Dragonstone when he left for war if he pregnancy did then not allow her to accompany him.

Not to mention that a woman like Lyanna would make (to want) her own choices, not caring at all about Rhaegar's assessment or wishes. She was her own woman, after all.

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8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aerys might have not been serious in his threats towards Elia and the children. And Rhaegar might have known that and went along along with it because he knew that the Martells threatening not to support the Targaryens was due to the whole Lyanna affair he was responsible for.

Or Aerys threatened Lewyn and Doran before Rhaegar did return to KL.

I really think that Aerys rather than Rhaegar trying to keep the Dornish in line (and Aerys later believing the Dornish have betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident) is a hint that neither Doran nor Lewyn were willing to interact or work with Rhaegar at this time.

When you say Aerys "might have not been serious in his threats towards Elia and the children," what could possibly give you that idea? This is a man who has tortured and murdered both Rickard and Brandon. He has killed every member of the Darklyn and Hollard families, but one, in the most cruel and inhuman ways possible. He has beheaded servants, and tortured others to death. So when you say he wasn't "serious" I don't know how you can reach that conclusion. He wasn't serious because it wouldn't make sense to think of his half-dornish grandchildren as less "Valyrian" than his own and therefore "smelled" funny? And yet he did.

I somehow can't get Joe Pesci's rant in "Goodfellas" out of my mind when I think of how unserious Aerys could have been. Aerys was dangerous in the extreme to all around him. That is true of those he should have viewed as loyal friends and those he had reason to see as a threat. His paranoia placed everyone in peril, and one would have to be a complete fool to hear his threats agains Elia, and later to his grandchildren as well as less than as serious as a heart attack. Rhaegar was no fool. He knew his father too well.

In fact he knew his father so well he removed his family from King's Landing to Dragonstone away from the day to day crazy acts his father could inflict. It is important to note that somehow Elia and her children leave the relative safety of Dragonstone to return to the court while Rhaegar can't be found. It is also important to note that it is during this time Elia is used as a hostage. How one can think this is a joke is beyond me.

We have the testimony of Ser Barristan that Rhaegar was "fond" of his wife, and I see no reason to believe he didn't love his children. If those are even close to being true, he can't have been accepting of his father's threats to his family. What he could do about it once they are in King's Landing is another question. It makes sense to me he would want to remove them from the city and his father's reach if he could in anyway make that happen. That it doesn't, to our knowledge, happen should tell us something of the limits of the Crown Prince's power in this time.

I do not disagree with your last point. While up to Lyanna's "kidnapping" the Dornish are a critical part of Rhaegar's partisans, after that event his relationship with the Martell brothers, and possibly Prince Lewyn, becomes strained to say the least.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But he does give the indication that it was his decision, not his father's, that Darry, Selmy, and Martell went with him to the Trident.

And power resides where people believe it resides. If Rhaegar was in charge of the Targaryen army then he could easily enough seen by the people who count (i.e. the soldiers) that he was in charge of everything.

I don't dispute that Rhaegar had the power to order the Kingsguard. Up to the point those orders contradicted Aerys's wishes. What we see in the last meeting between Rhaegar and Jaime is just one of those points. Rhaegar tells Jaime why he can't take him with him. It is because, like Elia and her children, Aerys holds Jaime close as a hostage. In this case to ensure Tywin's good behavior instead of Rhaegar and Dorne, but for the same reason. Rhaegar knows of the paranoia Aerys feels towards his former Hand. How could he not? He knows Aerys would veto any decision he makes that would take Jaime out of the king's power, and that is exactly what he tells Jaime. This scene should show us the limits of Rhaegar's power, not that he can do as he wishes.

After all, there is still a Hand of the King, as well as the King himself. Rhaegar may well make all the tactical decisions of the commander of the loyalist troops, but he is neither the King or his Hand.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is actually no hint that Rhaegar wants to call a Great Council after the war. He just says he wants to make changes. The idea that a Great Council would have had any success when Rhaegar had just won a bloody battle doesn't make a lot of sense. Such a council couldn't have included the Baratheons, Tullys, Arryns, and Starks in a meaningful manner.

No hint? You're not serious, right?

Quote

The prince, it is said, had no interest in the tourney as a tourney; his intent was to gather the great lords of the realm together in what amounted to an informal Great Council, in order to discuss ways and means of dealing with the madness of his father, King Aerys II, possibly by means of a regency or a forced abdication. (TWoI&F 124)

Quote

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When the battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but ... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return." (AFfC 119)

I'm not quite sure how more obvious the hints can be that Rhaegar wants to call a Great Council to make changes after the war, or that he tried to use Harrenhal to accomplish that in the past. You may think he really didn't mean to, and I'd love to hear your reasoning, but it is just plain false to say there are no "hints" concerning calling a Great Council.

Could it have included the Baratheons, Tullys, Arryns, and Starks? That depends on who is left from those Great Houses, and if Rhaegar wanted to bring them into a new Westeros under his new Kingship. My guess is, yes, there would be an accommodation to bring them back into the King's grace.

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But then, Rhaegar was some time at KL before he left for the Trident. Why couldn't he kept her there under his own command guarded by his own men? And then sent her back to Dragonstone when he left for war if he pregnancy did then not allow her to accompany him.

Not to mention that a woman like Lyanna would make (to want) her own choices, not caring at all about Rhaegar's assessment or wishes. She was her own woman, after all.

I think I've already answered this, but again, Rhaegar's power wasn't unlimited. If he brings Lyanna to King's Landing, she becomes every much a hostage to Aerys's whims that Elia and her children already are.

I've no doubt Lyanna would have told Rhaegar, and Aerys, and Ned, and Robert, and Prince Doran, and Prince Oberyn, and Jon Arryn, and Hoster Tully, or anyone else just what she thought and what she wanted. She unfortunately has no armies under her control, and is largely dependent on Rhaegar for getting her wishes to come true.

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20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

When you say Aerys "might have not been serious in his threats towards Elia and the children," what could possibly give you that idea? This is a man who has tortured and murdered both Rickard and Brandon. He has killed every member of the Darklyn and Hollard families, but one, in the most cruel and inhuman ways possible. He has beheaded servants, and tortured others to death. So when you say he wasn't "serious" I don't know how you can reach that conclusion. He wasn't serious because it wouldn't make sense to think of his half-dornish grandchildren as less "Valyrian" than his own and therefore "smelled" funny? And yet he did.

Sure, the man was nuts. But he didn't burn his son and heir alive nor did he kill his sister-wife or his younger son or Tywin or Steffon or Varys or Pycelle or a bunch of other people. He even spared the lives of fools and failures like Merryweather and Connington.

I don't doubt that Aerys wasn't capable of killing Elia and the children. But neither do I think he would have necessarily gone through with that particular threat.

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

In fact he knew his father so well he removed his family from King's Landing to Dragonstone away from the day to day crazy acts his father could inflict. It is important to note that somehow Elia and her children leave the relative safety of Dragonstone to return to the court while Rhaegar can't be found. It is also important to note that it is during this time Elia is used as a hostage. How one can think this is a joke is beyond me.

We don't know Rhaegar removed himself because he feared his father was a threat to his family. What we know is that there was tension between the king and his heir and their factions Pycelle compared to the situation before the beginning of the Dance. 

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

We have the testimony of Ser Barristan that Rhaegar was "fond" of his wife, and I see no reason to believe he didn't love his children. If those are even close to being true, he can't have been accepting of his father's threats to his family. What he could do about it once they are in King's Landing is another question. It makes sense to me he would want to remove them from the city and his father's reach if he could in anyway make that happen. That it doesn't, to our knowledge, happen should tell us something of the limits of the Crown Prince's power in this time.

The problem I have with that idea is that I really don't see a good chance that Rhaegar would actually fight for his father and his house if his children and wife were actually threatened by Aerys. That is just a pretty strange scenario.

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I do not disagree with your last point. While up to Lyanna's "kidnapping" the Dornish are a critical part of Rhaegar's partisans, after that event his relationship with the Martell brothers, and possibly Prince Lewyn, becomes strained to say the least.

My idea is that if Aerys and Rhaegar got to an understanding of sorts that Aerys sort of played the bad cop with Lewyn and Doran while Rhaegar was the good cop. Could be complete crap.

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I don't dispute that Rhaegar had the power to order the Kingsguard. Up to the point those orders contradicted Aerys's wishes. What we see in the last meeting between Rhaegar and Jaime is just one of those points. Rhaegar tells Jaime why he can't take him with him. It is because, like Elia and her children, Aerys holds Jaime close as a hostage. In this case to ensure Tywin's good behavior instead of Rhaegar and Dorne, but for the same reason. Rhaegar knows of the paranoia Aerys feels towards his former Hand. How could he not? He knows Aerys would veto any decision he makes that would take Jaime out of the king's power, and that is exactly what he tells Jaime. This scene should show us the limits of Rhaegar's power, not that he can do as he wishes.

But we don't actually know that Aerys wanted Darry, Selmy, and Lewyn to go with Rhaegar. We don't know who decided that they would accompany him.

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

After all, there is still a Hand of the King, as well as the King himself. Rhaegar may well make all the tactical decisions of the commander of the loyalist troops, but he is neither the King or his Hand.

That is why I assume Aerys may have made his son Protector of the Realm. That would have given him formal authority. The Prince of Dragonstone is nothing as long as he has no formal office in the government of the Realm.

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

No hint? You're not serious, right?

Sorry, completely forgot that part. I really should read the books again ;-).

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Could it have included the Baratheons, Tullys, Arryns, and Starks? That depends on who is left from those Great Houses, and if Rhaegar wanted to bring them into a new Westeros under his new Kingship. My guess is, yes, there would be an accommodation to bring them back into the King's grace.

I don't think Rhaegar would have taken the crown for himself. He would have taken the reins of the government from his father to rule as Prince Regent in his stead. But the problem of a Great Council would simply have been whether the rebels would have accepted Rhaegar's offers or Targaryen rule in general. Vice versa we can be pretty sure that Robert 'legitimizing' his rule by a Great Council led by him consisting mostly of rebel lords would not have convinced the Targaryen loyalists to accept him as king.

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I think I've already answered this, but again, Rhaegar's power wasn't unlimited. If he brings Lyanna to King's Landing, she becomes every much a hostage to Aerys's whims that Elia and her children already are.

But Rhaegar himself also didn't become a hostage. I really don't see that inevitability. Sure, there might have been a risk but only if Rhaegar was forced to return to court not if he went there willingly.

20 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

I've no doubt Lyanna would have told Rhaegar, and Aerys, and Ned, and Robert, and Prince Doran, and Prince Oberyn, and Jon Arryn, and Hoster Tully, or anyone else just what she thought and what she wanted. She unfortunately has no armies under her control, and is largely dependent on Rhaegar for getting her wishes to come true.

That is why I think she might have been a prisoner at the tower.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem I have with that idea is that I really don't see a good chance that Rhaegar would actually fight for his father and his house if his children and wife were actually threatened by Aerys. That is just a pretty strange scenario

So you think he would take the risk to have them roasted like Lord Rickard ?

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On 23.8.2016 at 0:47 AM, Kal-L said:

So you think he would take the risk to have them roasted like Lord Rickard ?

Considering that we don't yet know that Aerys threatened Rhaegar's wife and children in this manner I don't know how to answer that. However, the idea of putting tens of thousands of men under the command of a man you are blackmailing just doesn't make a lot of sense. Aerys could kill Elia and the children - and then he would lose his leverage. But Rhaegar already has thousands of men under his command. For whom would they fight if he told them that the king was threatening to murder his wife and children if he did not command the army?

Most likely not Aerys. In fact, such an outrageous thing should have immediately allowed Rhaegar to sneak into the castle and take his father into custody and kill the few men who were still loyal to Aerys.

You have to keep in mind that most people assuming that Aerys (sort of) forced Rhaegar into service think he did so because he needed him. If that's true - and I'm not sure about that considering that Hightower and Selmy would have both been much better generals than Rhaegar could ever hope to be, being veterans of the War of the Ninepenny Kings - then Aerys simply could not afford that the son who was supposed to be his general would also become his greatest enemy and always afraid about the fate of his wife and children while he was fighting his war.

Vice versa, Rhaegar would have had no reason or motivation whatsoever to leave his wife and children in the hands of that madman before he marched off to war.

Not to mention that Rhaegar thought that Aegon was the promised prince. He would have done anything in his power to protect this child. And no, at that point Rhaegar could not have been sure Lyanna's child was the promised prince because that child wasn't born yet. It could have been a miscarriage, a stillbirth, a monstrosity, or a girl. Not to mention that the dragon heads were apparently equally important to him.

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11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, the man was nuts. But he didn't burn his son and heir alive nor did he kill his sister-wife or his younger son or Tywin or Steffon or Varys or Pycelle or a bunch of other people. He even spared the lives of fools and failures like Merryweather and Connington.

I don't doubt that Aerys wasn't capable of killing Elia and the children. But neither do I think he would have necessarily gone through with that particular threat.

Well, we know he was planning to have them burn with everyone else in King's Landing after the Trident. He had sent Rossart out to start the fires before Jaime caught the newly made Hand. Now this was probably 4-6 months after he first reminded Prince Lewyn he held Elia, but considering the murder and torture he had committed before that and the months of preparation that must have been needed to prepare the pyromancer plot, it's not a stretch to conclude that Aerys not only was capable of these murders, but planned much more.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

We don't know Rhaegar removed himself because he feared his father was a threat to his family. What we know is that there was tension between the king and his heir and their factions Pycelle compared to the situation before the beginning of the Dance. 

We know there "tensions" between father and son concerning the wedding to Elia (Aerys did not attend, and forbade Viserys from doing so as well) and we know the "tensions" grew with the removal to Dragonstone into rumors of a crises between the two involving either a disinheritance of Rhaegar or the overthrow Aerys. When Rhaegar brought his family back so his father could see his new granddaughter, we know Aerys refused to touch her and complained that she "smells Dornish." Given Aerys's state of mind and his expressed disapproval of Elia and Rhaenys Dornish heritage, I don't know how Rhaegar could not take all of it as a threat to his family. This is not a situation in which one could count on Aerys changing his mind over his perceived inferiority of Rhaegar's wife and child. Rhaegar would have been a fool to ignore this and trust his father to not harm them.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem I have with that idea is that I really don't see a good chance that Rhaegar would actually fight for his father and his house if his children and wife were actually threatened by Aerys. That is just a pretty strange scenario.

I'm not sure why you think this strange, other than it extends into the royal family itself this is a normal practice in Westerosi history. Right off we are given the example of Theon Greyjoy who is held hostage by Ned Stark against his father's future behavior. There are many other such examples in the books. The shocking difference is that this tactic is employed between father and son, not that it is employed. Given the shocking nature of Aerys's mental state and his cruel history, we should not be surprise to learn his is willing to hold his own family members under threat of violence in order to get his way.

But this is not the only reason Rhaegar has for fighting for his father during this time period. It is the threat to his family, and the fact Rhaegar has a self-interest in saving the Targaryen monarchy from the rebellion that motivates him, I think. I don't find his response to a very difficult situation surprising at all. He did what he had to do.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

My idea is that if Aerys and Rhaegar got to an understanding of sorts that Aerys sort of played the bad cop with Lewyn and Doran while Rhaegar was the good cop. Could be complete crap.

Yeah, I'm not buying into this one. 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But we don't actually know that Aerys wanted Darry, Selmy, and Lewyn to go with Rhaegar. We don't know who decided that they would accompany him.

Aerys wants to win against the rebellion. Why wouldn't he want experienced commanders like Prince Lewyn and Ser Barristan there? The problem isn't with who goes, but in when we find a difference between father and son about who goes. Rhaegar tells Jaime why Aerys would not let him go, and the king's wish is what rules.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is why I assume Aerys may have made his son Protector of the Realm. That would have given him formal authority. The Prince of Dragonstone is nothing as long as he has no formal office in the government of the Realm.

We have no reason to think Aerys made Rhaegar the Lord Protector. Far from it. Aerys is still giving orders to his Hand. He is still giving orders to Rossart to prepare burning down King's Landing. And the conversation between Rhaegar and Jaime does not suggest Aerys has given over the rights of Kingship to Rhaegar. As I've pointed out, it shows Rhaegar knows the limits of his ability to command is subordinate to his father's.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sorry, completely forgot that part. I really should read the books again ;-).

Not a problem, LV.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't think Rhaegar would have taken the crown for himself. He would have taken the reins of the government from his father to rule as Prince Regent in his stead. But the problem of a Great Council would simply have been whether the rebels would have accepted Rhaegar's offers or Targaryen rule in general. Vice versa we can be pretty sure that Robert 'legitimizing' his rule by a Great Council led by him consisting mostly of rebel lords would not have convinced the Targaryen loyalists to accept him as king.

This is real hypothetical territory seeing as such a council was never called. Rhaegar's death at the Trident render all these plans moot. I agree that it would not have solved the underlining problems of Targaryen rule sans Dragons, but it could have removed Aerys from power, whatever the formal titles he and Rhaegar used, and it could have led to a temporary truce in further rebellion.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But Rhaegar himself also didn't become a hostage. I really don't see that inevitability. Sure, there might have been a risk but only if Rhaegar was forced to return to court not if he went there willingly.

The part of this I think you're missing is that Rhaegar returns not only because of his family being held hostage, and his own need to defeat the rebellion, but also because his father needs him. I don't mean that to say Rhaegar returns because he is being kind to his father. Rather I mean it is because the need for Rhaegar to play a role in rallying loyalist forces is paramount at this point. Loyalists will still flock to his banner, and see a hope of defeating the rebellion. More than a general, he is a charismatic symbol that Aerys can no longer be. Rhaegar understands this, and uses it in his preparation for battle. It keeps him out of the dungeon as well, at least temporarily. I don't think there is any doubt if Lyanna comes north with Rhaegar, she ends up in a room right next to Elia, if not a Black Cell, and under Aerys's control.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is why I think she might have been a prisoner at the tower.

If she is a prisoner, ordered to be such by Rhaegar, why do you think she dies holding onto roses? Roses that sound suspiciously like the ones given to her at Harrenhal? No, I don't think she is Rhaegar's prisoner, nor do I think Hightower could force Dayne and Whent to treat her as such. As I said above, I think Ser Gerold throws his lot in with Rhaegar because he is ordered to deliver the threat to Rhaegar about Elia and her children. That was the last straw for the White Bull.

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1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Well, we know he was planning to have them burn with everyone else in King's Landing after the Trident. He had sent Rossart out to start the fires before Jaime caught the newly made Hand. Now this was probably 4-6 months after he first reminded Prince Lewyn he held Elia, but considering the murder and torture he had committed before that and the months of preparation that must have been needed to prepare the pyromancer plot, it's not a stretch to conclude that Aerys not only was capable of these murders, but planned much more.

That was preparation for the apocalypse just in case the Targaryen dynasty would lose the war. Aerys wouldn't have burned down his capital had his army won.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

We know there "tensions" between father and son concerning the wedding to Elia (Aerys did not attend, and forbade Viserys from doing so as well) and we know the "tensions" grew with the removal to Dragonstone into rumors of a crises between the two involving either a disinheritance of Rhaegar or the overthrow Aerys. When Rhaegar brought his family back so his father could see his new granddaughter, we know Aerys refused to touch her and complained that she "smells Dornish." Given Aerys's state of mind and his expressed disapproval of Elia and Rhaenys Dornish heritage, I don't know how Rhaegar could not take all of it as a threat to his family. This is not a situation in which one could count on Aerys changing his mind over his perceived inferiority of Rhaegar's wife and child. Rhaegar would have been a fool to ignore this and trust his father to not harm them.

If Rhaegar thought his father was a threat to his health and life then hiding on Dragonstone was actually a very bad move. He would not see it coming there when his father would send a contingent of men to arrest and/or kill him. And the wall apparently offered no protection against Aerys if we don't assume Elia returned to KL of her own free will (which she very well might have done if she was pissed about the Lyanna affair and demanded justice from Aerys - which he might have been willing to give her at that point).

But the bright side of all this is that Aerys apparently never moved against Rhaegar prior to the Lyanna affair. I think there is a good chance that he was attainted and disinherited and declared a traitor and rebel after he took (and secretly/publicly married) Lyanna because Aerys would have seen this as confirmation of his suspicion that the Starks and Rhaegar were plotting against him. That suggests to me that the situation between father and son was bad but not yet hopeless. After all, years passed between Duskendale and Harrenhal and the abduction.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

I'm not sure why you think this strange, other than it extends into the royal family itself this is a normal practice in Westerosi history. Right off we are given the example of Theon Greyjoy who is held hostage by Ned Stark against his father's future behavior. There are many other such examples in the books. The shocking difference is that this tactic is employed between father and son, not that it is employed. Given the shocking nature of Aerys's mental state and his cruel history, we should not be surprise to learn his is willing to hold his own family members under threat of violence in order to get his way.

Those are different things. Taking a hostage is supposed to keep a former rebel/quarrelsome lord in line. But you would never give a person you are blackmailing into serving you command of your main army. That gives way too much power to such a person. Especially if that person is your own son and would inherit everything anyway upon the day you die.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

But this is not the only reason Rhaegar has for fighting for his father during this time period. It is the threat to his family, and the fact Rhaegar has a self-interest in saving the Targaryen monarchy from the rebellion that motivates him, I think. I don't find his response to a very difficult situation surprising at all. He did what he had to do.

Possibly. But he could have dealt with Aerys first. Months passed between the Battle of the Bells and the Trident, after all. That he did not could also mean he was still not willing to actually harm or publicly humiliate his father.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Yeah, I'm not buying into this one.

It could also be that Aerys used Elia and the children only as hostages prior to Rhaegar's return to court. The thing is, we still lack confirmation that Aerys ever used Elia and the children as hostages against Rhaegar.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Aerys wants to win against the rebellion. Why wouldn't he want experienced commanders like Prince Lewyn and Ser Barristan there? The problem isn't with who goes, but in when we find a difference between father and son about who goes. Rhaegar tells Jaime why Aerys would not let him go, and the king's wish is what rules.

But you can interpret this two ways. One way is that Rhaegar actually has the power and authority to take Jaime with him because he is the man deciding things now, regardless who calls himself king. I find that one somewhat more plausible because a man who actually has to ask his father's permission wouldn't talk to Jaime about stuff he does not dare to do but simply about things he could not do without his father's leave.

Why Aerys would give up Darry and Selmy is also very unclear, by the way. The Kingsguard usually protects the king. And if he was blackmailing Rhaegar one should expect him to actually keep men he felt he could trust close.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

We have no reason to think Aerys made Rhaegar the Lord Protector. Far from it. Aerys is still giving orders to his Hand. He is still giving orders to Rossart to prepare burning down King's Landing. And the conversation between Rhaegar and Jaime does not suggest Aerys has given over the rights of Kingship to Rhaegar. As I've pointed out, it shows Rhaegar knows the limits of his ability to command is subordinate to his father's.

Oh, I think you confuse the office of the Protector of the Realm with the kingly office. Apparently it is not the same. Baelor Breakspear was Hand and Protector in THK but still subservient to the king. Prince Daemon was named Protector of the Realm by Rhaenyra, too (as was the Prince Regent Aemond after Aegon II became incapacitated) but this doesn't mean they held equal rank or even outranked the king. During the Regency of Aegon III there were the seven regents of the Regency Council, the Hand, and the Protector of the Realm all different offices (at first Tyland Lannister was Hand and Leowyn Corbray Protector; later on Unwin Peake, already a regent, also claimed the Handship and the office of the Protector for himself). It seems they were just in charge of the military matters and may or may not have had the last word in those. If the Protector of the Realm isn't the king then he would have about as much authority as the Hand or more in military matters, I guess, although in a regency situation matters should be much more complicated.

In that sense I see no real trouble in Rhaegar being named Protector of the Realm if Aerys tried to reconcile with his son.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

The part of this I think you're missing is that Rhaegar returns not only because of his family being held hostage, and his own need to defeat the rebellion, but also because his father needs him. I don't mean that to say Rhaegar returns because he is being kind to his father. Rather I mean it is because the need for Rhaegar to play a role in rallying loyalist forces is paramount at this point. Loyalists will still flock to his banner, and see a hope of defeating the rebellion. More than a general, he is a charismatic symbol that Aerys can no longer be. Rhaegar understands this, and uses it in his preparation for battle. It keeps him out of the dungeon as well, at least temporarily. I don't think there is any doubt if Lyanna comes north with Rhaegar, she ends up in a room right next to Elia, if not a Black Cell, and under Aerys's control.

Sure, the danger for Lyanna could still be there. But then, does Rhaegar know his other wife is used as a hostage while he is at the tower?

And I'm not really sure that Aerys really needed Rhaegar. Selmy and Hightower would have been much experienced generals than Rhaegar could ever be. It is not that Rhaegar was just a figurehead for the loyalists to rally around (like Aerys himself might have been on the Stepstones, with actual command lying in the hands of Ormund Baratheon and later Gerold Hightower) he also trained the new recruits and later led the army.

We just don't know why Aerys recalled his son. To force him into service, to apologize to him because he thought he was a traitor, or both? It is difficult to say at this point.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

If she is a prisoner, ordered to be such by Rhaegar, why do you think she dies holding onto roses? Roses that sound suspiciously like the ones given to her at Harrenhal? No, I don't think she is Rhaegar's prisoner, nor do I think Hightower could force Dayne and Whent to treat her as such. As I said above, I think Ser Gerold throws his lot in with Rhaegar because he is ordered to deliver the threat to Rhaegar about Elia and her children. That was the last straw for the White Bull.

Oh, things can change more than once. Lets say Lyanna and Rhaegar are madly in love and happy at the beginning of their reunion (after they already were, sort of, at Harrenhal). They even marry publicly at Maidenpool or some other place where Rhaegar has friends. Then Aerys' calls for their heads because of treason etc. and they have to run away and hide. If that did not sober them up then the treatment of Rickard and Brandon most certainly would have sobered up Lyanna. Depending how much she was in love with Rhaegar she might have sort of gotten over that as long as Rhaegar did not return to his father.

But once he made the decision to take up arms against her other brother(s) and Robert things might have been completely different. Lyanna is described as a very wild and willful character. She speaks her mind and does as she pleases, just as Arya does (and would). The idea that she would not try to prevent Rhaegar from marching against her brother(s) and friends doesn't make much sense. And what else could Rhaegar do to prevent her from interfering with him than locking her up?

By the time Ned finds Lyanna the news of Rhaegar's death obviously already has reached the tower. Not to mention that she has given birth to Rhaegar's son in the meantime. Dying usually changes people. You drop your pretense and admit what you actually feel (if your still coherent, that is). Jeor Mormont asks for Jorah/wants to settle things with him when he dies, Robert makes his peace with the Targaryens on his deathbed, and so on.

It is not difficult to imagine that Rhaegar's loss showed Lyanna how much she loved the man after all.

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3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

We know there "tensions" between father and son concerning the wedding to Elia (Aerys did not attend, and forbade Viserys from doing so as well) and we know the "tensions" grew with the removal to Dragonstone into rumors of a crises between the two involving either a disinheritance of Rhaegar or the overthrow Aerys. When Rhaegar brought his family back so his father could see his new granddaughter, we know Aerys refused to touch her and complained that she "smells Dornish." Given Aerys's state of mind and his expressed disapproval of Elia and Rhaenys Dornish heritage, I don't know how Rhaegar could not take all of it as a threat to his family. This is not a situation in which one could count on Aerys changing his mind over his perceived inferiority of Rhaegar's wife and child. Rhaegar would have been a fool to ignore this and trust his father to not harm them.

If I'm not mistaken, Aerys refused to attend the wedding because he feared for an attempt on his life. Considering how he feared for Viserys's health and safety as well, that's likely why Viserys was not allowed to attend the wedding either. But, as far as we have been told, IIRC, while there already were tensions between Rhaegar.and Aerys at this point, they were not the reason for Aerys not to attend the wedding.

 

In fact, Rhaegar's betrothal and marriage to Elia would have been by Aerys's authority. Aerys chose the Dorne-match, for his own reasons, and Aerys himself, paranoid as he already was by then, allowed a Dornish prince to become one of his KG. I personally think that Aerys only soured after the wedding, perhaps when the Dornish chose Rhaegar's side over his own, joining the "prince's party". His reaction to Rhaenys was, after all, the first time he showed any dislike for the Dornish, which he had not done before.

 

That said, I don't see how Rhaegar would not have been worried about the fact that Aerys was using his wife and children as a hostage. Even if Aerys never threatened Rhaegar specifically with the lives of Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon, he had expressed such threats to others (Lewyn), and that would have been something that Rhaegar could not have ignored.

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5 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

If I'm not mistaken, Aerys refused to attend the wedding because he feared for an attempt on his life. Considering how he feared for Viserys's health and safety as well, that's likely why Viserys was not allowed to attend the wedding either. But, as far as we have been told, IIRC, while there already were tensions between Rhaegar.and Aerys at this point, they were not the reason for Aerys not to attend the wedding.

Yeah, after Duskendale Aerys was both afraid for his own life and never left the Red Keep until Harrenhal nor did he allow Viserys and Rhaella to go out.

The tensions between Aerys and Rhaegar seemed to have begun only with Duskendale, too. Back in 276 AC during the tourney of Lannisport Aerys happily cheered on his son and heir.

5 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

In fact, Rhaegar's betrothal and marriage to Elia would have been by Aerys's authority. Aerys chose the Dorne-match, for his own reasons, and Aerys himself, paranoid as he already was by then, allowed a Dornish prince to become one of his KG. I personally think that Aerys only soured after the wedding, perhaps when the Dornish chose Rhaegar's side over his own, joining the "prince's party". His reaction to Rhaenys was, after all, the first time he showed any dislike for the Dornish, which he had not done before.

Yeah, that is the most likely reason for him to act the way he did. The whole anti-Dornish thing is both very irrational and not easily explained any other way. But then, the man was quite mad at that time. And was even prone to mood swings in his youth. However, the cause for him suddenly not liking the Dornish/Martells in general (who were his own cousins) and rejecting his own granddaughter seems to suggests he was also pissed about political stuff like the Martells seeking Rhaegar's favor now rather than his own.

Do we know when Prince Lewyn joined the Kingsguard? Considering his age I'm more inclined to think he was one the old guard, perhaps joining the Kingsguard in the wake of some empty spots being caused by Summerhall or the War of the Ninepenny Kings. The replacement for Ser Gwayne Gaunt could easily enough have been Ser Arthur Dayne. Considering that he was Rhaegar's best friend one should assume the men were close to each other in age and were, perhaps, raised together at court with Arthur being Aerys' ward or page/squire. If that was the case we cannot reasonably assume that Arthur joined the KG in the early 270s. He wouldn't have become a Kingsguard at the age of twelve of thirteen. The only fact seemingly contradicting is the notion that Ser Arthur already was a Kingsguard knight at the Lannisport tourney of 276 AC. However, it is difficult to pin down the replacement for Gaunt then. Hightower and Selmy were White Swords for a long time, obviously, Lewyn seems to be rather old, too. Grandison most likely was the oldest KG at that time anyway, and it doesn't look likely that Ser Oswell as a new addition, either. If Arthur was already a KG at Duskendale the best idea for a new addition after the death of Gaunt would be Ser Jonothor Darry. That could fit with the fact that the Darrys were supposedly Aerys' pets in the later years of his reign.

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7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

If I'm not mistaken, Aerys refused to attend the wedding because he feared for an attempt on his life. Considering how he feared for Viserys's health and safety as well, that's likely why Viserys was not allowed to attend the wedding either. But, as far as we have been told, IIRC, while there already were tensions between Rhaegar.and Aerys at this point, they were not the reason for Aerys not to attend the wedding.

 

In fact, Rhaegar's betrothal and marriage to Elia would have been by Aerys's authority. Aerys chose the Dorne-match, for his own reasons, and Aerys himself, paranoid as he already was by then, allowed a Dornish prince to become one of his KG. I personally think that Aerys only soured after the wedding, perhaps when the Dornish chose Rhaegar's side over his own, joining the "prince's party". His reaction to Rhaenys was, after all, the first time he showed any dislike for the Dornish, which he had not done before.

You are right, RT. The wedding had to have Aerys's approval. In fact, the fears for his own life and Viserys as well probably comes from Aerys's fear of Tywin. When Steffon dies, I believe, Aerys thinks that Tywin was somehow responsible, and he thinks Tywin wants to kill him as well. After Tywin's foolish remarks before the small council as they met in the siege of Duskendale, I can understand the lack of trust in his Hand. The paranoia is shown, however, in the extent he sees Tywin's plots in things like a shipwreck during a storm. Another problem here is that the paranoia extends to his son. He has begun to think Rhaegar is in league with Tywin. Does that mean, he fears Rhaegar had a hand in these made up plots to kill Aerys at the wedding? I don't know, but we can say the relationship between father and son is not the same after Duskendale and the marriage only makes it worse.

The Dornish marriage is, likely as not, agreed to in order to spite House Lannister's overreaching desire to marry Cersei to Rhaegar. The Martells, however, become a new "enemy" after the wedding, and we see it clearly in Aerys's reaction to being presented with Rhaenys, if not before that. 

7 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

That said, I don't see how Rhaegar would not have been worried about the fact that Aerys was using his wife and children as a hostage. Even if Aerys never threatened Rhaegar specifically with the lives of Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon, he had expressed such threats to others (Lewyn), and that would have been something that Rhaegar could not have ignored.

Here we agree completely. I would only add that, while we don't know how it is Elia and her children end up in King's Landing under Aerys's control, it seems very unlikely given the background we have gone through above that she goes there willingly. If she has a choice, it would seem to me she either would want to be in Dorne with her family, or if she sees that as a rebuke to Rhaegar, to stay on Dragonstone. The last place she would travel to after the "kidnapping" would be King's Landing and into the paranoid grasp of Aerys. My thinking is that at some point Aerys's sends an escort to Dragonstone with a summons Elia cannot refuse. Was that Hightower? I don't know, but I think we will learn more of this time period's details in the next book.

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8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Do we know when Prince Lewyn joined the Kingsguard? Considering his age I'm more inclined to think he was one the old guard, perhaps joining the Kingsguard in the wake of some empty spots being caused by Summerhall or the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

The world book implies that Lewyn came to court with Elia, suggesting he joined around the time of the betrothal/marriage, in ~279/280 AC. (sort of like Loras joining upon Joffrey's betrothal to Margaery)

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The replacement for Ser Gwayne Gaunt could easily enough have been Ser Arthur Dayne. Considering that he was Rhaegar's best friend one should assume the men were close to each other in age and were, perhaps, raised together at court with Arthur being Aerys' ward or page/squire. If that was the case we cannot reasonably assume that Arthur joined the KG in the early 270s. He wouldn't have become a Kingsguard at the age of twelve of thirteen. The only fact seemingly contradicting is the notion that Ser Arthur already was a Kingsguard knight at the Lannisport tourney of 276 AC.

That Arthur is already mentioned to be a KG knight in 276 AC makes it clear then that Arthur did not replace Gwayne, now doesn't it? ;-)

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

However, it is difficult to pin down the replacement for Gaunt then. Hightower and Selmy were White Swords for a long time, obviously, Lewyn seems to be rather old, too. Grandison most likely was the oldest KG at that time anyway, and it doesn't look likely that Ser Oswell as a new addition, either. If Arthur was already a KG at Duskendale the best idea for a new addition after the death of Gaunt would be Ser Jonothor Darry. That could fit with the fact that the Darrys were supposedly Aerys' pets in the later years of his reign.

Another possibility would be that the spot simply remained empty until Aerys accepted Lewyn. Perhaps, in his paranoid and traumatized state following the defiance, Aerys, who feared for his life, could not decide who to trust with keeping him safe.

 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

The Dornish marriage is, likely as not, agreed to in order to spite House Lannister's overreaching desire to marry Cersei to Rhaegar.

That is very likely to have played a role, I agree. In addition to several other benefits Aerys might have seen in the match, I think.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Here we agree completely. I would only add that, while we don't know how it is Elia and her children end up in King's Landing under Aerys's control, it seems very unlikely given the background we have gone through above that she goes there willingly. If she has a choice, it would seem to me she either would want to be in Dorne with her family, or if she sees that as a rebuke to Rhaegar, to stay on Dragonstone. The last place she would travel to after the "kidnapping" would be King's Landing and into the paranoid grasp of Aerys. My thinking is that at some point Aerys's sends an escort to Dragonstone with a summons Elia cannot refuse. Was that Hightower? I don't know, but I think we will learn more of this time period's details in the next book.

I agree that she most likely did not go willingly. I hope that we will learn more about this, too. 

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1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

You are right, RT. The wedding had to have Aerys's approval. In fact, the fears for his own life and Viserys as well probably comes from Aerys's fear of Tywin. When Steffon dies, I believe, Aerys thinks that Tywin was somehow responsible, and he thinks Tywin wants to kill him as well. After Tywin's foolish remarks before the small council as they met in the siege of Duskendale, I can understand the lack of trust in his Hand. The paranoia is shown, however, in the extent he sees Tywin's plots in things like a shipwreck during a storm. Another problem here is that the paranoia extends to his son. He has begun to think Rhaegar is in league with Tywin. Does that mean, he fears Rhaegar had a hand in these made up plots to kill Aerys at the wedding? I don't know, but we can say the relationship between father and son is not the same after Duskendale and the marriage only makes it worse.

It definitely worsened after the wedding and his mistrust then extended from Rhaegar to Elia and the Dornish. But the root of Aerys' fear is difficult to determine as is his lack of action in all that. The man around 280 AC was yet not as far gone as the man in 282-283 AC. Keep in mind that the pre-Duskendale Aerys was neither a great man nor a particular sympathetic one. But he was neither sadistic nor cruel nor obsessed with fire. All of that began after Duskendale. Prior to that his sentences grew somewhat worse than before but only the post-Duskendale Aerys was burning people alive (eventually). And this stuff only affected criminals that would be sentenced to death anyway. Aerys did not run around butchering innocents or something like that.

When normal Aerys had his 'lapses' those were apparently real psychotic episodes triggered by real stress and trauma like another stillbirth or another child dead in the cradle. But when he went over the edge after the death of Prince Jaehaerys and had a lot of people tortured and executed he eventually recovered and made amends as best as he could (by humbling himself and taking a walk of shame to the Great Sept and swearing a holy vow to never again sleep with another woman but his sister-wife).

The other point where we see that there was still a certain part of decency/saneness/attachment in Aerys is that he never actually moved against either Tywin or Rhaegar despite his fear that they were plotting against them in his mind. If he truly believed Tywin had murdered Steffon then it is very odd that he did not act on this. The most likeliest explanation in my opinion is that there was still some love/affection left in this love-hate relationship between Aerys and Tywin. Even if it were just fond childhood memories both men shared.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

The Dornish marriage is, likely as not, agreed to in order to spite House Lannister's overreaching desire to marry Cersei to Rhaegar. The Martells, however, become a new "enemy" after the wedding, and we see it clearly in Aerys's reaction to being presented with Rhaenys, if not before that.

Yes, but it would have been difficult for the Princess of Dorne to arrange that if Aerys had been anti-Dorne prior to the whole thing. He and the Princess must have gotten along at least reasonably well. Else one of Aerys' cronies should have been able to marry Rhaegar to his daughter.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Here we agree completely. I would only add that, while we don't know how it is Elia and her children end up in King's Landing under Aerys's control, it seems very unlikely given the background we have gone through above that she goes there willingly. If she has a choice, it would seem to me she either would want to be in Dorne with her family, or if she sees that as a rebuke to Rhaegar, to stay on Dragonstone. The last place she would travel to after the "kidnapping" would be King's Landing and into the paranoid grasp of Aerys. My thinking is that at some point Aerys's sends an escort to Dragonstone with a summons Elia cannot refuse. Was that Hightower? I don't know, but I think we will learn more of this time period's details in the next book.

She certainly could be forced to court. But then, one asks were Lewyn was at that point. On the other hand it might be that she herself went there to complain to Aerys about Rhaegar mistreating her when the whole Lyanna thing became known. The basic setting technically allows that Elia and Aerys could become bedfellows over this.

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

The world book implies that Lewyn came to court with Elia, suggesting he joined around the time of the betrothal/marriage, in ~279/280 AC. (sort of like Loras joining upon Joffrey's betrothal to Margaery).

That is a very vague implication. It could be. But it just as well could be the first mentioning of Lewyn in connection with the arrival of other Dornishmen at court. In fact, if Dayne and Lewyn already had been in the KG at this point the Princess of Dorne would have had much better opportunities to approach both Rhaegar and Aerys without Tywin realizing what was going on. And Lewyn could easily enough have joined the KG back in the day when Joanna and the Princess were both ladies-in-waiting at court, pulling strings to ensure that Aerys II or Jaehaerys II would name her younger brother to the Kingsguard.

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

That Arthur is already mentioned to be a KG knight in 276 AC makes it clear then that Arthur did not replace Gwayne, now doesn't it? ;-)

If we go with the Kingsguard part intentionally wanting to make the statement that Arthur already was a KG at this point. It is possible that this was just for the benefit or the reader who doesn't know who Ser Arthur is but should know that the man's main quality as a character was that he was a KG. The book is very dense, after all. However, I'm certainly not insisting on such an interpretation.

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Another possibility would be that the spot simply remained empty until Aerys accepted Lewyn. Perhaps, in his paranoid and traumatized state following the defiance, Aerys, who feared for his life, could not decide who to trust with keeping him safe.

I don't think that's very likely considering that it usually falls to the Lord Commander to draw up lists of new candidates upon with the king then just picking his favorite. Hightower certainly would have presented his king with such a list as quickly as possible. And I see little reason why the hell an 'old man' like Lewyn should ever want or be considered to become a Kingsguard at this point.

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13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That was preparation for the apocalypse just in case the Targaryen dynasty would lose the war. Aerys wouldn't have burned down his capital had his army won.

On the run, so let me respond to just this for now. If Aerys is willing to murder his daughter-in-law and his grandchildren after the Trident, what makes you think he wouldn't have done so before the Trident, even though he threatens to do just that? What in his mental make up before the Trident gives you any confidence he is just bluffing?

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9 hours ago, MtnLion said:

If there was a split between Aerys and Rhaegar, why was Rhaegar still commanding the White Knights?

Firstly I never said, I consider it to be true, I just couldn't understand Lord Varys reasoning. Now to respond to your question Aerys might have not trusted Dayne and Whent to be close to him and leave them under Rhaegar's command until the end of the war. The other possibility would be that they outright chose to obey Rhaegar over Aerys.

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10 hours ago, SFDanny said:

On the run, so let me respond to just this for now. If Aerys is willing to murder his daughter-in-law and his grandchildren after the Trident, what makes you think he wouldn't have done so before the Trident, even though he threatens to do just that? What in his mental make up before the Trident gives you any confidence he is just bluffing?

Well, Aerys' motivation after the Trident seems to be somewhat between 'Let them (especially Robert) all die if I have to go' kind of apocalyptic madness in the face of defeat and the mad hope that a huge fire involving a lot of blood sacrifices might transform Aerys himself into a living dragon.

Now, we know that Aerys did not particularly like Elia and his grandchildren but even he might have thought that death might be preferable to falling in Robert's hands at this point (one could draw parallels between Magda Goebbels murdering all her children from her second marriage in preparation of her own suicide at the end of the Third Reich).

The threats towards Lewyn and Doran might still have been bluffs to a degree. I mean, honestly, how would Aerys have looked had he indeed murdered his own daughter-in-law and grandchildren. I'm pretty sure nobody would have followed him after that. Just as Stannis' cause should crumble at once should he ever burn his only child alive. You just don't follow madmen of this sort.

8 hours ago, Kal-L said:

Firstly I never said, I consider it to be true, I just couldn't understand Lord Varys reasoning. Now to respond to your question Aerys might have not trusted Dayne and Whent to be close to him and leave them under Rhaegar's command until the end of the war. The other possibility would be that they outright chose to obey Rhaegar over Aerys.

The split between Rhaegar and Aerys is a historical fact. We have it prior to Harrenhal and it seems that the Lyanna affair caused the tensions between father and son to explode. This assumption provides us with the best explanation as to why Rhaegar and Lyanna disappeared and stayed underground for months even after a civil war had engulfed the Realm.

The difficult question is how this whole thing was 'resolved' when Rhaegar returned to KL. Was he blackmailed into serving Aerys as SFDanny suggests? Or was there some sort of truce or even reconciliation between father and son? We don't know yet. I actually like the second idea a little bit more because it would add another layer of tragedy to the whole thing.

My idea is that Aerys saw Rhaegar taking (and possibly marrying) Lyanna as proof that the Starks and Rhaegar was plotting against him. Rhaegar and Lyanna are thus the reasons why Aerys considered Rickard and Brandon traitors and he executed them the way he did because they would not admit to their 'crimes'. This then also led to his belief that Eddard and Robert must have been part of this conspiracy, too.

But later on, Aerys realized that he was mistaken because the rebels he was fighting now actually did not only want to topple him but also intended to kill Rhaegar. Thus he tried to make amends and reached out to Rhaegar as early as after the dismissal of Merryweather as Hand. He wanted his son and heir back. When he did not find him he turned to Jon Connington and made him Hand. Later on when Rhaegar was found and returned he entrusted him with leading the Targaryen army to battle.

At the end Aerys might have thought his son had never ever contemplated betrayal when in fact Rhaegar had finally found the strength to actually depose his father because of his mental illness and obscene cruelty.

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4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The difficult question is how this whole thing was 'resolved' when Rhaegar returned to KL. Was he blackmailed into serving Aerys as SFDanny suggests? Or was there some sort of truce or even reconciliation between father and son? We don't know yet. I actually like the second idea a little bit more because it would add another layer of tragedy to the whole thing.

Just to clarify my position again, my friend, I believe, and there are many clues to support this, that the answer to both of your above questions is "yes." Rhaegar has a powerful self-interest in seeing the rebels defeated. If he wants to become king that is the only way it will happen. If he wants to see his son Aegon succeed him to the Iron Throne it has to happen. If he wants his view of prophecy to have a chance of working out, it has to happen. So, after the loyalist army meets defeat at Stoney Sept, and Connington is exiled, Rhaegar has to decide if he is going to let some lickspittle lord take charge of fighting the rebellion, or he is going to make a truce with his father and rebuild the loyalist army and take on the fight for a Targaryen future. So Rhaegar must look and decide whether it makes sense to unite with his father in order to defeat the rebels, and take a risk that by doing so he strengthens Aerys's hand not only against the rebels, but against Rhaegar himself.

For Aerys, his need to consolidate all loyalists behind him is obvious. The defeat at the Battle of the Bells proved the power of the rebels, not just against a local lord, but against the king's own army. To achieve this consolidation, however, Aerys needs his son. Rhaegar can inspire people to the loyalist cause in ways that Aerys never could, and since Duskendale, he too often inspires the opposite reaction. So, unless, Aerys is consigned to motivate only by fear, he needs his son, and his followers. This need is Aerys's incentive to make a truce with Rhaegar.

But Aerys's state of mind doesn't allow him to see just mutual self-interest or help on the simple principle of honoring one's oaths. He needs people to fear him. He needs his son to fear him. To do this he threatens to disinherit Rhaegar and replace him with Viserys, but the young, and unstable Viserys inspires no one. He can't do what Rhaegar can do for the loyalist cause. So, Aerys is not content to make a truce with Rhaegar based on self-interest alone. He must be able to control Rhaegar. The only way he can do so is by threats to the safety of Rhaegar's family. We know he does this to force Dorne to do as he wishes, and there is no reason to think he wouldn't do same with Rhaegar. In fact, by threatening Elia through Prince Lewyn he also informs his son that his family is not safe. The idea that Rhaegar does not recognize the threat or that Aerys is just bluffing is absurd given his past history. So, again, an emphatic "YES!" to both of your questions.

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