R+L=J v.162

[Tucu]

18 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Eight or nine months older than Daenerys tells us a great deal. 

The night that Aerys roasted the Mace and Dagger Hand was when Aerys paid Rhaella a visit.  While he was doing so, Jaime and Jonothor Darry were at the door.  The following Hand was the Pyromancer, and he had been Hand for a fortnight when Jaime kills him.  Also, the marks from the night that Aerys paid a visit to Rhaella were still visible when she leaves King's Landing (after news of the Trident had reached them).  Bruises and scratches fade, not being readily apparent in one week, and becoming invisible in two weeks. 

If it took Ned more than 2 and a half weeks to get from King's Landing to Storm's End, then on to the tower, then we should start looking for some other father for Daenerys.  It is no secret that Rhaella and Aerys were not even amiable.  Willem Darry is a good candidate . . .

I am not sure if I am following your reasoning. It just tells us the age difference between Jon and Dany. If Aerys is her father, we can grossly estimate that Jon was born around the Sack of KL. I am not sure if we can say anything more than that.

25 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Meh, it really doesn't matter, anyway, does it? That's part of my point. What's the point of having her live for more than a few days. And don't just make up stuff for fun. Point to some hint in the text that she lived for a long time and give reason that makes some difference to the plot. 

But why are you narrowing it down without any textual evidence? I prefer to keep the options open until GRRM delivers on his promise that "All Will Be Revealed in Good Time"

[Ygrain]

8 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Oh, come on. Papa was Rhaegar, and Lyanna was waking his dragon. Then dude went off and left her with his two favorite KGs and the White Bull. When the Ned and the little frog eater found her she had just recently given birth to Jon, but she died shortly thereafter in her bed of blood. I mean those are the basics of RLJ, right? We can quibble about the rest, sure, but those basics are pretty much gospel, no? 

In other words, theories that suggest Jon's parents are anyone other than Rhaegar and Lyanna are crackpot, or at least a bit outside the reservation, no? 

And is there a good argument t to suggest that Lyanna did not die shortly after giving birth to Jon? Or do such arguments depend on speculation? 

Ah, sorry - I should have added /sarcasm/, now that we don't have the sarcastic font any more :-)

[Lost Melnibonean]

15 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Ah, sorry - I should have added /sarcasm/, now that we don't have the sarcastic font any more :-)

Gotcha. 

[Jon Snow Nothing]

On 24/08/2016 at 0:42 PM, Lord Varys said:

Could be. I'm less convinced than you that Aerys would have thought in such rational terms or receptive to such reasonable arguments. If Aerys thought his unkempt person and his mad mood swings/emotional outbursts/fits of mad laughter caused problems inspiring loyalty one should assume the man would have overcome his fear of knives and had allowed his servants to shave his beard and hair and cut his nails.

(...)

I find it more likely that Aerys wanted to reconcile with Rhaegar for emotional reasons rather than political machinations. The fact that he was already looking for Rhaegar by the time he dismissed Merryweather and actually made one of Rhaegar's friends the new Hand supports that idea, I think.

Well, after some thinking, I believe now that after the Defiance of Duskendale and the gruesome killing of Serala, something has really changed in Aerys mind.

In my opinion, Aerys began to have visions, just like Daenerys, his daughter. He could see how he would die, and maybe hear names and stuff, and after the tragedy, he was right, he was killed with a very sharp sword. He was afraid of death, not only of losing the throne, he thought people was after him, to kill him. I believe some magic have been released when he killed the Darklyns. Maybe something connected to R'hllor? I am now sure that his madness and obsession with fire was not just "targaryen madness", there was something else making the King lose his mind, as if he was possessed.

Not sure if I agree with you about Aerys wanting to reconcile with Rhaegar. There is no hint he was a good father or even liked Rhaegar when he was young and "bookish". In fact I would think that Rhaegar's popularity after he grew up brought a lot of resentment to his father. Marrying his older son to Elia Martell might have been a good "political machination", but the fact that Tywin Lannister rejected Elia for Jaime, knowing their mothers have been close and all, makes me wonder if Elia was really a good choice, at least in terms of being able to give heirs to Rhaegar. No, I don't think Aerys has ever had any emotional attach to his older son. In fact I think he hated him.

 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On 23-8-2016 at 11:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

That is a very vague implication. It could be. But it just as well could be the first mentioning of Lewyn in connection with the arrival of other Dornishmen at court. In fact, if Dayne and Lewyn already had been in the KG at this point the Princess of Dorne would have had much better opportunities to approach both Rhaegar and Aerys without Tywin realizing what was going on. And Lewyn could easily enough have joined the KG back in the day when Joanna and the Princess were both ladies-in-waiting at court, pulling strings to ensure that Aerys II or Jaehaerys II would name her younger brother to the Kingsguard.

(Sorry for the late reply!)

This is the quote in question:

The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia were in the prince’s confidence as well, particularly Prince Lewyn Martell, Elia’s uncle and a Sworn Brother of the Kingsguard.

And currently, it is all we have to go by. "The Dornishmen who had come to court with the Princess Elia, particularly Prince Lewyn". Either Elia came to court long before her betrothal (of which we have absolutely no textual hints), or Lewyn indeed joined around early 279 AC (Elia's betrothal).

While I have some idea about how old Lewyn's sister was at Doran's birth, that doesn't necessarily say much about Lewyn himself. Robb Stark was born in 283 AC, his brother Rickon was born 12 years later. And they hardly are the only siblings with a large age-gap; Rhaegar and Daenerys differed 25 years in age, for example, though of course, there were circumstances there - I wouldn't call the biggest age difference between Frey-siblings (some 60 years) a comparable situation, for example - but who's to say there weren't circumstances for the Martell's either? Elia had difficulty giving birth, and Lewyn's own sister had two deaths in the cradle, as well as stillbirths and miscarriages. So, Lewyn easily could have been ten years younger than his sister, or even more. In fact, if the age difference between Lewyn and his sister was similar to the Robb-Rickon age gap, Lewyn might have been closer in age to Doran (depending on when his sister gave birth) than to his own sister.

 

We can only speculate about their age difference, and Lewyn's age at Elia's marriage, of course, but it is not entirely impossible that Lewyn was around 30 at Elia's betrothal, and such an age would still have been acceptable for a new KG member, I'd say.

 

On 23-8-2016 at 11:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

If we go with the Kingsguard part intentionally wanting to make the statement that Arthur already was a KG at this point. It is possible that this was just for the benefit or the reader who doesn't know who Ser Arthur is but should know that the man's main quality as a character was that he was a KG. The book is very dense, after all. However, I'm certainly not insisting on such an interpretation.

Why would it not have been intentionally? Yandel does it everywhere else, as far as I can recall, so why make an exception for one of the most well-known knights in the Seven Kingdoms? 

 

On 23-8-2016 at 11:00 PM, Lord Varys said:

I don't think that's very likely considering that it usually falls to the Lord Commander to draw up lists of new candidates upon with the king then just picking his favorite. Hightower certainly would have presented his king with such a list as quickly as possible. And I see little reason why the hell an 'old man' like Lewyn should ever want or be considered to become a Kingsguard at this point.

The decision comes from the King. The LC might make a list of candidates, but if the King dislikes all, none will be chosen. Hightower might have drawn up a list as quickly as possible, but if Aerys refused them all, they would not be sworn into the order.

And most importantly, whoever was chosen for the job, the extremely paranoid king needed to be certain that his newest KG knight could be entrusted with his life. How can you name a new KG if you can't find anyone who fits your criteria (and you are not willing to "settle")?

And, as I said, Lewyn might not have been an "old man", at the time. 

[SFDanny]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

Until such time as we learn that Aerys actually threatened the lives of Elia, Aegon, and Rhaenys to keep Rhaegar in line I'm not going to buy that this was the case. But I'm with you and Rhaenys that the threats he made to Lewyn and Doran definitely would have angered and irritated Rhaegar. But then - there is no hint that they were made while Rhaegar nor do we know if/when he was told about this. The chances that Lewyn and Elia spoke much/at all with Rhaegar after his return (unless they had to) are not very good.

The odds that Prince Lewyn speaks with Prince Rhaegar after Rhaegar returns from the Tower of Joy are, in fact, quite good. Rhaegar is in charge of the loyalist army and Lewyn has been sent to take command of 10,000 Dornish  troops that make up about a quarter of that army. The idea the two men don't talk for months while they are both vital parts of the command structure of the same military contingent is, excuse me here LV, but it's seems silly. Perhaps one can argue that Lewyn is under royal command to say nothing to Rhaegar about the King's threat towards Elia, but for them not to talk seems absurdly unlikely. Lewyn may well be pissed as all hell at his Prince, but he still has to talk to him.

 

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

He can do whatever he wants, he is the king, and he is way beyond the need of having to be 'coherent'. Aerys might actually believe he is doing himself and Rhaegar a favor by blackmailing Lewyn/Doran. After all, we don't yet know the full picture of the split between the Targaryens/Rhaegar and the Martells at this point. Perhaps Doran had no inclination whatsoever to have Dornishmen defend the Targaryens or fight alongside Prince Rhaegar after the Lyanna affair? Until such time as the king threatened his sister and her children..

But this doesn't mean Aerys did or had to use the same methods to keep Rhaegar in line.

I'm not questioning Aerys's ability to give whatever order he wants. I do question Aerys's ability to hold Elia hostage without Rhaegar knowing it. The Crown Prince has an interest in his family being free from Aerys's control, so what happens when he tells Elia to go back to Dragonstone? Or Rhaegar plans to take Rhaenys out of the city? In order for the threat to Dorne to be effective none of that can happen. Elia and her children need to be in Aerys's control at all times. If Rhaegar sees and object to this, then Aerys's must overrule him and tell him his family is under royal threat unless the Dornish comply with the king's wishes. How do you think this would go over with Rhaegar?

As to what Doran would do without the threat, let me just say it is in the interest of Dorne that Aegon sits the Iron Throne. Threats to Elia are not necessary for Doran to know this simple, basic fact.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

But this doesn't mean Aerys did or had to use the same methods to keep Rhaegar in line.Something like that could have happened.

Up until Rhaegar finds out his family is held hostage it doesn't, but after he finds out - either from Hightower at the Tower, on the road back to King's Landing, or when Rhaegar arrives in King's Landing - Aerys's must either remove the threat or extend it to Rhaegar as well because the idea Rhaegar would go along with the threat willingly is absurd.

I think it is also important to say the use of such a threat against Rhaegar, fits Aerys's conduct like a glove. The king who must constantly tell people he is king, and show the power he has over others is exactly what we would expect from Aerys.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

Something like that could have happened. Hightower must have switched to Rhaegar's side else he would have never stayed at the tower regardless what Rhaegar's authority level was. But it doesn't have to be a threat like that, it could have just been the state of mind the king was in and the whole burning and mistreating of the queen thing. That Darry and Hightower tried to prevent Jaime from doing something stupid (like attacking the king, intervening when he was mistreating Rhaella, deserting, etc.) doesn't mean they did not share his thoughts or did enjoy watching Aerys commit atrocities.

I'd remind you that Hightower is already gone when Aerys attacks Rhaella while Darry and Jaime stand by. Hightower was at the Tower, as far as we know, when this takes place. But you're right in that it doesn't have to be this particular thing - the holding of Rhaegar's family hostage - that is the tipping point with Ser Gerold. I'm looking for what could have been the trigger for his change, and I think this is the best explanation we have.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

This would be 'an argument from the gap', so to speak. Aerys defending Rhaegar's honor when Brandon threatened him made sense up until the point we learned that Aerys should actually have been pretty happy if somebody resolved the Rhaegar problem for him. An Aerys believing Rhaegar was plotting against him wouldn't have a had a huge problem with Rhaegar dying in a duel or something of that sort.

Besides, we never learned that it was Brandon's threat to Rhaegar that got him killed. We just inferred that from the way the story was told. And I see no reason why one guy threatening Rhaegar should lead to a trial against Rickard and a lot of other guys who weren't even with Brandon when he made his threat.

George introduced the whole idea of Aerys and his cronies interpreting the events at Harrenhal as a conspiracy of Rhaegar and the Starks for a reason. With that in mind it makes little sense to assume that Aerys would believe Brandon's claim that Rhaegar had abducted Lyanna against the wishes (and without the knowledge) of Lord Rickard. He also didn't believe that the Starks were actually angry when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna at Harrenhal.

Thus I think Aerys accused Brandon, Rickard, Brandon's companions, and their friends and family of conspiring with Rhaegar against him. That was what led to the trials and executions and to the command to kill Ned and Robert. Aerys would never have gone so far to protect his ingrate son.

If any of this is true then Rhaegar himself must have been the main suspect of the whole thing. And he was only not burned at Rickard's side because he and Lyanna got away in time.

The reason why I think we have yet to learn this story is that it might be intricately connected to the Lyanna-Rhaegar abduction story and its immediate aftermath. And if that involves a marriage or the announcement of a marriage then it is quite clear while George is still keeping those things in the dark. My guess is that Aerys and the court already had word of the marriage by the time Brandon arrived.

Thinking about that: Perhaps Ethan Glover lived because he gave in to torture and actually confirmed all the accusations Aerys laid at the feet of Rickard and Brandon? That certainly would be a much better explanation than merely 'Aerys forgot to burn him' or something like that.

Well, we interpret this very, very differently, I must say. I don't think there is a doubt Brandon and his companions are held, and ultimately killed, for threatening the Crown Prince's life. That is the excuse used, or so I understand the rather strong "inference" in our tale. I think we are also given Rickard's "southron ambitions" as the probable real reason for Aerys's view of the Starks, the Arryns, the Baratheons, and the Tullys as enemies. It seems very likely Aerys seizes the opportunity Brandon and his friends presents to him and charges them with threatening the life of a prince of the blood and summons their father's to answer for the son's actions. This little subterfuge doesn't work well if they are tried for conspiracy against Aerys himself, along with Rhaegar, for which none of them have done anything that could be construed as evidence of that crime. Demanding a duel with Rhaegar isn't evidence of a conspiracy against Aerys, is it?

Now, the fact that Aerys is not happy with his son, doesn't mean he won't use a threat to his life as a political opportunity to deal with people he at least perceives as conspiring against him through their marriage alliances. Let's leave whether or not there is any truth in that perception out of this for now. Unfortunately for Aerys, it is not a crime for the families of the noble classes to marry with one another, and as such he can't put them on trial for doing so. He can put them on trial for threatening Rhaegar. So, I don't quite understand the tactic of including Rhaegar in a charge of a grand conspiracy against the crown, when Brandon has given Aerys everything he wants.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

Well, it depends. Even saner Aerys isn't described as a very intelligent man. He is so full of himself that it takes him quite a while to figure out that a lot of people think his Hand is actually much more competent and smarter than he is. In addition, he was always changeable. His many mistresses attest to that as well as all those grand plans that are forgotten a fortnight later.

And I actually don't think he is a sadist. I think both his fascination with fire and the treatment of Rhaella are symptoms of his very special dragonlord blood sickness. Watching fire and people burn resonated with a part of the dragon blood in him and I don't think he knew what he was doing when he visited Rhaella's bedchamber thereafter. The way Jaime is describing it suggests he might have thought he was a dragon in the flesh at those times, and I don't think that was an erotic game of sorts. It was part of his mental illness.  

Perhaps you have a better word or phrase that describes Aerys than sadist. I agree this is not a "erotic game" for Aerys as he is deadly serious. But I don't want to get hung up on whether the word is the best diagnosis of his mental state. Suffice it to say he enjoys the torment of others, and when combined with the use of fire, this sexually arouses him. Those are just facts form the story, and you maybe right that in this magical world the Targaryen connection to dragons gives a special twist to all of this. I would note that we don't see that in all other Targaryens, but he may have pronounced tendencies that are not as prevalent in other family members. Whatever the reasons for Aerys's mental state, my point was that his sickness does not preclude rational thought. He isn't stupid, even if he isn't the brightest bulb on the Targaryen family tree.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny.  

Does he really see that? I'm wondering. Did Viserys I realize that there were any Blacks and Greens at his court? What Aerys would have seen was that there were traitors out to get him (Rhaegar and the men around him) and loyal men defending his royal person and crown.

But the fact that Aerys never moved against his son until the Lyanna affair suggests to me that he himself never truly believed his son was out to get him. Else he would have had him executed.

Part of being paranoid, it seems to me, is seeing plots were none exist. I don't think Aerys particularly saw any loyal friends in his court, with the possible exception of Varys, who gave him most of his information about all the plots against him. The "lickspittle" lords aren't necessarily his friends, anymore than his son and his son's friends are, but that doesn't make Aerys unable to see real factions in his court.

I think what Aerys thinks of his son probably varies from day to day. If Viserys was as old as Rhaegar, it might well have become a contest of brothers for their father's favor. With the age difference, it is only Rhaegar who is an active player in the game. Viserys is only a pawn used by others. Fundamentally, Aerys views the world through  a "us vs. them" lens, with the us being the Targaryen family. The dragonlords amongst the sheep and cattle of the fields. That Rhaegar is one of the "us" is the only thing, I think, that saves him.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

We have to wait and see how and why Connington became Hand. He might tell us himself. However, there is little reason to assume that 'the Rhaegar faction' at court was still in existence at this point. Dorne clearly no longer would have been friends with Rhaegar, and a lot of other men might have been appalled by the Lyanna thing, too, regardless whether they knew of a second marriage or not. Abducting the daughter of a high lord isn't something you do.

I can't say what Rhaegar running off with Lyanna did to his faction at court without more information on each part of the faction, other than to say this. Connington obviously stayed loyal to his prince, and the connection between Rhaegar and the Dornish faction became quite strained. The fact Connington is tapped to be the next Hand, is, I think, important in holding the court together in the face of an important rebel victory.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

Sorry, but that is just an assertion. You don't know what would have been possible without Rhaegar nor do you know that Aerys brought him back because if the reasons you give.

It is an assertion based on lots of information given in the books. We can go through them if you like.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

Yeah, if we go with Rhaegar being threatened into service by his father then the two would have been mortal enemies at this point. And there is no indication for that. Jaime's memories of his last conversation with Rhaegar don't give a hint that the man was hating or even fearing his father. If Aerys had threatened the life of Elia and the children don't you think Rhaegar would have begged Jaime to protect them with his life?

The conversation shows that Rhaegar is prepared to move against his father if he returns victorious from the Trident. Does he hate his father? As I said earlier, their relationship is extremely complex, but, yes, I'd say he hates him. Probably still loves him as well. If Darry's presence means anything in the timeline, it is quite likely this scene takes place right after Aerys brutalizes, and rapes Rhaella. If Rhaegar knows of this, then he is likely extremely angry with his father. The context of this meeting is one of turning points. Turning points cut short by Rhaegar's death. 

Sorry, I'll get to the rest later. Later, my friend. And thanks for the interesting conversation.

[MtnLion]

On ‎8‎/‎25‎/‎2016 at 4:20 PM, Tucu said:

I am not sure if I am following your reasoning. It just tells us the age difference between Jon and Dany. If Aerys is her father, we can grossly estimate that Jon was born around the Sack of KL. I am not sure if we can say anything more than that.

Okay, so Jon was born within a fortnight of the sack.  Lyanna died of puerperal fever after Ned arrived.  Ned arrived after the sack, but cannot be any later than 24 days after the sack (otherwise Aerys cannot be Daenerys' father, and a few other oddities).  Ergo Jon was born at most ten days before Ned arrives, but based upon GRRM's other examples, more likely 3-5 days before Ned arrives (making the above 24 days more like 17-19 after the sack).  Ned and Rhaegar along with their armies can move at warp speeds, I do not doubt. 

[Tucu]

25 minutes ago, MtnLion said:

Okay, so Jon was born within a fortnight of the sack.  Lyanna died of puerperal fever after Ned arrived.  Ned arrived after the sack, but cannot be any later than 24 days after the sack (otherwise Aerys cannot be Daenerys' father, and a few other oddities).  Ergo Jon was born at most ten days before Ned arrives, but based upon GRRM's other examples, more likely 3-5 days before Ned arrives (making the above 24 days more like 17-19 after the sack).  Ned and Rhaegar along with their armies can move at warp speeds, I do not doubt. 

OK, but that is only you don't count the flexibility in conception (up to 6 days after sex), pregnancy duration (38 to 42 weeks is normal) and time and cause of Lyanna's death.

It is true that if Dany is Aerys' daughter and the age difference between Dany and Jon is 8 to 9 months, then the timing is very tight for Ned to reach the tower of joy close to Jon's birth. But there is enough flexibility to make the theory possible without changing Dany's father; delay conception, extend pregnancy and make Ned arrive later.

[Lost Melnibonean]

18 minutes ago, Tucu said:

OK, but that is only you don't count the flexibility in conception (up to 6 days after sex), pregnancy duration (38 to 42 weeks is normal) and time and cause of Lyanna's death.

It is true that if Dany is Aerys' daughter and the age difference between Dany and Jon is 8 to 9 months, then the timing is very tight for Ned to reach the tower of joy close to Jon's birth. But there is enough flexibility to make the theory possible without changing Dany's father; delay conception, extend pregnancy and make Ned arrive later.

The George didna even know wee fellows like Tyrion couldna tumble, but he knew that lassies like Lyanna could get knocked up 6 days after sex? (Is that really true?) Why are you trying to make it more complicated than it appears to be? The Ned showed up right around the time Jon popped out, and shortly before his sister died. that would have been a few weeks after the Sack of King's Landing, no? The dude knew knew how to move his army fast, and he left them behind to hightail it to the Tower of Joy. About nine months after the Battle of the Trident, Daenerys was born. And c'mon, The George himself told us that Jon was born about eight to nine months before Daenerys...

Quote

July 11, 1999

CHRONOLOGY

I'm trying to figure out how Jon's day of birth fits in the timeline of the war, and assumed you wouldn't just tell me when he was exactly born.:-)

In his first chapter at the Wall, Jon reflects that his name day passed a fortnight before. I assume this was his 15th one. Dany's 14th name day was at the end of her chapter, on the far side of the Dothraki sea.

Now, if this was after Jon's chapter -- and (apparent) name day, it could be concluded, that Jon was born more than 1 year before Dany, and at least 3 months before Queen Rhaella left King's Landing.

I will spare you the rest of my speculations about the date of Jon's birth, since their only real conclusion is that Catelyn seems a little thick when she thinks that Ned fathered Jon as he returned 'Dawn' to Ashara Dayne.

Ah... I see what you're driving at here, I guess...

I will confess, the chronology of these books sometimes gives me fits. You would not believe how often I reshuffle the chapters, trying to find the one true perfect sequence. And then just when I have it exactly right, my editors weigh in from both sides of the Atlantic, each suggesting a slightly different chapter order.

It is always a balancing act, since I want the chapters to have a certain dramatic flow, I worry about certain storylines being forgotten if they are "off stage" too long, and there is a constant tug of war between character time and reader time (a character may have two chapters, taking place one day apart, but if two hundred pages of stuff about other characters separate those two chapters, the reader is going to perceive a long time as having passed, even if I begin the second chapter with, "When he woke up the very next morning..."

All of which is a long winded way of saying, no, Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts.

I do intend to publish a timeline as an appendix in one or other of the later volumes, but even when I do, I am not certain I'm going to start detailing things down to months and days. With such a huge cast of characters, just keeping track of the =years= drives me half mad sometimes. Not to mention the colors of everybody's eyes.

As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar.

The rest I will save for the books.

 

Jon was born about eight to nine months before Daenerys. Let that sink in a moment. Jon was born about eight to nine months before Daenerys. Daenerys was born on Dragonstone about nine months after the Battle of the Trident. Jon was born at the Tower of Joy about the time of the Battle of the Trident, or within another month or so after the Battle of the Trident. 

[Tucu]

29 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

The George didna even know wee fellows like Tyrion couldna tumble, but he knew that lassies like Lyanna could get knocked up 6 days after sex? (Is that really true?) Why are you trying to make it more complicated than it appears to be? The Ned showed up right around the time Jon popped out, and shortly before his sister died. that would have been a few weeks after the Sack of King's Landing, no? The dude knew knew how to move his army fast, and he left them behind to hightail it to the Tower of Joy. About nine months after the Battle of the Trident, Daenerys was born. And c'mon, The George himself told us that Jon was born about eight to nine months before Daenerys...

Jon was born about eight to nine months before Daenerys. Let that sink in a moment. Jon was born about eight to nine months before Daenerys. Daenerys was born on Dragonstone about nine months after the Battle of the Trident. Jon was born at the Tower of Joy about the time of the Battle of the Trident, or within another month or so after the Battle of the Trident. 

In that case you have to assume that Ned arrived at the tower of joy weeks or months after Jon's birth. He went from the Trident, to KL, waited for an injured Robert to arrive, assembled his forces, travelled to Storm's End, lifted the siege, searched for Lyanna and then reached the tower of joy.

Edit: this theory depends on flexibility. If you assume that Dany was born exactly 9 months after being conceived around the Battle of the Trident and was also born 9 months (or less) after Jon; then Neds needs time travelling Bran's help to reach the tower of joy during Jon's birth.

[Lost Melnibonean]

9 minutes ago, Tucu said:

In that case you have to assume that Ned arrived at the tower of joy weeks or months after Jon's birth. He went from the Trident, to KL, waited for an injured Robert to arrive, assembled his forces, travelled to Storm's End, lifted the siege, searched for Lyanna and then reached the tower of joy.

Not if Eddard used the same space-time portal that Lord Mallister used to get from the Inn at the Crossroads to King's Landing. And I am sure he moved much faster than Catelyn did from King's Landing to the Inn at the Crossroads, so that she could arrive at the same day that Tyrion arrived from the Wall via Winterfell. Perhaps he left King's Landing by the same gate Arya was able to exit to walk up to the Wind Witch? And don't forget The George had Sandor moving about the Riverlands with 9,000 gold dragons stuffed in his pockets. The point is, that The George obviously did not have these precise details worked out, yet we try to parse these details to fit elaborate theories that go against what the storyteller is trying to tell us. I gotta admit, though, I am just as guilty.  

[Tucu]

7 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Not if Eddard used the same space-time portal that Lord Mallister used to get from the Inn at the Crossroads to King's Landing. And I am sure he moved much faster than Catelyn did from King's Landing to the Inn at the Crossroads, so that she could arrive at the same day that Tyrion arrived from the Wall via Winterfell. Perhaps he left King's Landing by the same gate Arya was able to exit to walk up to the Wind Witch? And don't forget The George had Sandor moving about the Riverlands with 9,000 gold dragons stuffed in his pockets. The point is, that The George obviously did not have these precise details worked out, yet we try to parse these details to fit elaborate theories that go against what the storyteller is trying to tell us. I gotta admit, though, I am just as guilty.  

That is why I am advocating the need for flexibility. If Ned arrived at the time of Lyanna's giving birth and the other conditions still hold, then we have to either discard that baby being Jon, find a new father for Dany or place Lyanna in a different place (maybe the Isle of Faces?)

[Lost Melnibonean]

49 minutes ago, Tucu said:

That is why I am advocating the need for flexibility. If Ned arrived at the time of Lyanna's giving birth and the other conditions still hold, then we have to either discard that baby being Jon, find a new father for Dany or place Lyanna in a different place (maybe the Isle of Faces?)

You keep walking further out into space, you run the risk of your lifeline breaking. Lyanna was at the Tower of Joy. Daenerys is the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella, and Jon was born eight to nine months before Daenerys (probably a little less than eight--there's your flexibility). 

[Tucu]

27 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

You keep walking further out into space, you run the risk of your lifeline breaking. Lyanna was at the Tower of Joy. Daenerys is the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella, and Jon was born eight to nine months before Daenerys (probably a little less than eight--there's your flexibility). 

Just trying to explain why there is a need for flexibility in Ned's arrival to the Tower of Joy. You asked for plot reasons a few posts ago.

[Lost Melnibonean]

18 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Actually you have to make the differences longer, not shorter for R+L=J to work. A combination Rhaella having a later and longer pregnancy and/or a later arrival of Ned.

Why? Daenerys was born nine months after the Battle of the Trident, and eight to nine months after Jon was born. And we need to get Eddard from the Trident to the Tower of Joy for Jon's birth. That's why the eight makes more sense than the nine, and with a little flexibility, we can give Eddard anot her week or two, making Jon just a little less than eight months older than Daenerys. 

[Tucu]

Just now, Lost Melnibonean said:

Why? Daenerys was born nine months after the Battle of the Trident, and eight to nine months after Jon was born. And we need to get Eddard from the Trident to the Tower of Joy for Jon's birth. That's why the eight makes more sense than the nine, and with a little flexibility, we can give Eddard anot her week or two, making Jon just a little less than eight months older than Daenerys. 

Yes, I had edited my post as the calculation was wrong.

[Lost Melnibonean]

10 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Yes, I had edited my post as the calculation was wrong.

I outthink myself sometime too.  

[SFDanny]

Continuing my response, LV

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

I think Aerys thought that Elia's traitorous line (remember, Lewyn betrayed Rhaegar at the Trident in Aerys' mind) did not deserve to live if Robert took the city. However, Aerys only gave the command to burn the city down during the Sack. That was a last resort, not something he wanted to do with all his heart. Keeping Elia and the children close was most likely an attempt of his to protect himself against Dornish retribution or perhaps he hoped to force Doran to come up with more men to defend his capital.

The pyromancer plot is something that takes months in preparation. Aerys is brooding on his ultimate weapon and how he will use it for that time. During the same time he is holding his daughter-in-law and his grandchildren hostage, meaning he will do them harm if, at least, the Prince of Dorne does not do as he is told. Now, I agree his mind grows darker and darker as the military campaign goes against him, but he has already made the decision that the three relatives are not exempt from his rage. Would he have held onto Elia and her children if Tywin's troops did not betray him and sack the city? Probably, but that doesn't mean he hasn't already decided they need to be punished. To put Rhaegar's family - a part of his own family - on the block for his "justice" is way beyond what I can see Rhaegar accepting. I would expect the Crown Prince to do everything he can to stop this, within the context of the rebellion and the power struggle necessary to replace Aerys.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

Yeah, but we don't yet know why Rhaegar ran away and hid. There has to be a reason for this, a reason we don't yet know. And this reason could very well include a change in his status as a royal prince.

In fact, if Rhaegar was attainted as a traitor to the Crown this could also explain why the garrison of Dragonstone did not defend Elia and the children when Aerys' men came to fetch her (assuming they did that). There is small chance that Rhaegar's people would have stood up to Aerys after learning what Rhaegar did and how Aerys had punished him.

What we know is who he hid himself and Lyanna from. They hide from Aerys, as well as the Prince of Dorne, and, of course, the rebels. These facts tell us that for whatever reason they hide, they did not want any of these people to find them. The reasons for the rebels and the Prince of Dorne are rather obvious. The reason they hide from Aerys is the key. Whatever Rhaegar wants to accomplish with Lyanna's "abduction" he does not believe his father will approve or help with it. So, we can rule out Rhaegar kidnaps Lyanna just to stop her wedding to Robert. While I think this is the start of it, I think it goes far beyond this goal. Aerys would have approved of stopping the alliance between the Starks and the Baratheons, but he won't approve of a relationship between Lyanna and Rhaegar. Which is why I think they hide.

I think you overestimate the loyalty of the Dragonstone garrison if you think they would stop a summons from the king. They would certainly try to do everything their Princess commanded of them short of going against a royal order, but take up arms against the king? No, I think not. There is no reason to conclude that by not rising in arms against a royal party sent to escort Elia to King's Landing this inaction must be preceded by Rhaegar being attainted. Nor is there even a hint this took place.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

That just isn't the same.

The textual evidence shows Aerys made a decision to hold Elia hostage. From which we must ask ourselves how he does that without also holding her hostage, not only to Dorne's good behavior, but to that of Rhaegar himself.

On August 25, 2016 at 3:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

@SFDanny

Could be. But then, wouldn't have Aerys still had Elia and the children in his power after Rhaegar's victory. Whatever lofty plans Rhaegar had for his council after the Trident wouldn't have saved his wife and children from Aerys' wrath. And if we take prophecy into account the life of the promised prince (i.e. Aegon) would have been much more important than ending the threat of the rebels. In that sense I really don't see a good reason why Rhaegar would prolong the threat to Aegon's life by taking on Robert first. His father was the main threat to the life of the boy if he made a real threat, not Robert or the other rebels.

Yes, Aerys would still hold Rhaegar's family. I think Rhaegar has every incentive to try to get his family out of King's Landing during this period. If he could have smuggled any of his children out without his father knowing about it, I think he would have done so. Of course that is not something that is easy to pull off, especially with all of Varys's spies trying to prevent it. Short of that, Rhaegar has one of two options, it seems to me. The first is what we see him do. Try to defeat the rebels and return with his victorious army as the hero of the day, and try to take his father for trial before a grand council. Or he can try to assassinate his father. Which sounds like Rhaegar? Again, I think Rhaegar died trying to do what he had to do to save his kingdom from his father's misrule, to save his family from rebellion, to save his family from Aerys's threats, and to save the woman he loves from the many other forces that would prevent them from being together. He dies trying to accomplish all of this, but he has little choice to do as he did.

[Lord Varys]

On 26.8.2016 at 10:43 PM, Jon Snow Nothing said:

In my opinion, Aerys began to have visions, just like Daenerys, his daughter. He could see how he would die, and maybe hear names and stuff, and after the tragedy, he was right, he was killed with a very sharp sword. He was afraid of death, not only of losing the throne, he thought people was after him, to kill him. I believe some magic have been released when he killed the Darklyns. Maybe something connected to R'hllor? I am now sure that his madness and obsession with fire was not just "targaryen madness", there was something else making the King lose his mind, as if he was possessed.

Aerys could have had visions and prophetic dreams, sure, but we don't know anything about that yet. We'll have to wait and see whether we'll ever get a character or POV who was really close to him to tell us about such things. Connington, Jaime, and especially Selmy qualify as such so we'll have to wait and see.

However, I think the Targaryen blood is really 'tainted' in a sense, 'dragonized' if you want to call it that, and it is pretty clear that a lot of the Targaryen mental issues as well as their problems conceiving healthy children is connected to that.

On 26.8.2016 at 10:43 PM, Jon Snow Nothing said:

Not sure if I agree with you about Aerys wanting to reconcile with Rhaegar. There is no hint he was a good father or even liked Rhaegar when he was young and "bookish". In fact I would think that Rhaegar's popularity after he grew up brought a lot of resentment to his father. Marrying his older son to Elia Martell might have been a good "political machination", but the fact that Tywin Lannister rejected Elia for Jaime, knowing their mothers have been close and all, makes me wonder if Elia was really a good choice, at least in terms of being able to give heirs to Rhaegar. No, I don't think Aerys has ever had any emotional attach to his older son. In fact I think he hated him.

There is no reason to believe that Aerys hated Rhaegar. In fact, we have one good hint that he liked and was proud of his son even later in life - when he happily cheered him on at Tourney of Lannisport in 276 AC, prior to the Duskendale. Considering that Aerys actually forbid Jaime to attend the Tourney of Harrenhal later on because he did not want to him win glory there one has to wonder why a jealous or spiteful Aerys would allow his 'hated son' to win a tourney. Not to mention that he would have had no reason to cheer him on - and most certainly no longer did when he began to suspect that he was plotting against him.

There is also no reason to think that Aerys didn't like Rhaegar because he was bookish. Aerys himself wasn't a scholar or interested in stuff like that but neither was a he great warrior or very interested in the chivalric arts. He liked parties, dances, masquerades, and stuff in his youth. And he liked the women. There was no reason for him to not like a learned son or a son who excelled at everything he did. In fact, he would have had every reason to be proud of such a son.

I don't think they were particularly close because they had different personalities - Aerys was lively and active while Rhaegar was always silent and melancholic. But that doesn't mean they did not spend time together while Rhaegar was young nor does it mean Aerys would not have loved his son as a father or Rhaegar his father as a son.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

The odds that Prince Lewyn speaks with Prince Rhaegar after Rhaegar returns from the Tower of Joy are, in fact, quite good. Rhaegar is in charge of the loyalist army and Lewyn has been sent to take command of 10,000 Dornish  troops that make up about a quarter of that army. The idea the two men don't talk for months while they are both vital parts of the command structure of the same military contingent is, excuse me here LV, but it's seems silly. Perhaps one can argue that Lewyn is under royal command to say nothing to Rhaegar about the King's threat towards Elia, but for them not to talk seems absurdly unlikely. Lewyn may well be pissed as all hell at his Prince, but he still has to talk to him.

Sure, at that time they would have interacted with each other. But we have no clue how long Lewyn was away from court leading those Dornishmen up to KL nor do we know when exactly his forces joined Rhaegar's. We don't even know whether Rhaegar spoke to his father after he talked to Lewyn, and if he only learned about the threats from him.

Vice versa we also don't know whether Lewyn directly talked to Rhaegar or whether they used intermediaries. That would be somewhat odd but not necessarily impossible or unheard of.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

I'm not questioning Aerys's ability to give whatever order he wants. I do question Aerys's ability to hold Elia hostage without Rhaegar knowing it. The Crown Prince has an interest in his family being free from Aerys's control, so what happens when he tells Elia to go back to Dragonstone? Or Rhaegar plans to take Rhaenys out of the city? In order for the threat to Dorne to be effective none of that can happen. Elia and her children need to be in Aerys's control at all times. If Rhaegar sees and object to this, then Aerys's must overrule him and tell him his family is under royal threat unless the Dornish comply with the king's wishes. How do you think this would go over with Rhaegar?

Well, Aerys certainly could have decided something like that. But it is one thing to tell your son 'I have to keep your (former?) wife and children here to protect my royal person against Dornish treason (thanks to your ridiculous Stark business)' and to actually tell your son that he'll burn his children alive should he not do as he says.

Not to mention that we actually have no hint that Rhaegar ever tried to get Elia and the children away from Aerys. Perhaps he did not care? Aerys could have told him that Elia refused to see him or something of that sort. She might have been very hurt by the Lyanna affair, after all.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

As to what Doran would do without the threat, let me just say it is in the interest of Dorne that Aegon sits the Iron Throne. Threats to Elia are not necessary for Doran to know this simple, basic fact.

Does he? I'm not so sure about that. And neither do we know what status Elia and the children still during the Rebellion. If Rhaegar did replace Elia with Lyanna then Aegon and Rhaenys might have lost their status as royal children and legitimate heirs just as Cersei's children presumably would have had Robert set aside her as she fears in AGoT (and Renly planned for him to do with his Margaery idea).

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

Up until Rhaegar finds out his family is held hostage it doesn't, but after he finds out - either from Hightower at the Tower, on the road back to King's Landing, or when Rhaegar arrives in King's Landing - Aerys's must either remove the threat or extend it to Rhaegar as well because the idea Rhaegar would go along with the threat willingly is absurd.

It is not absurder than assume that Rhaegar would not immediately remove a threat to Aegon's life once he realizes that such a threat exists. The life of hostages usually is pretty safe, after all.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

I think it is also important to say the use of such a threat against Rhaegar, fits Aerys's conduct like a glove. The king who must constantly tell people he is king, and show the power he has over others is exactly what we would expect from Aerys.

But Aerys is not the kind of man who would blackmail somebody into service this way who could use his power to overthrow him.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

I'd remind you that Hightower is already gone when Aerys attacks Rhaella while Darry and Jaime stand by. Hightower was at the Tower, as far as we know, when this takes place. But you're right in that it doesn't have to be this particular thing - the holding of Rhaegar's family hostage - that is the tipping point with Ser Gerold. I'm looking for what could have been the trigger for his change, and I think this is the best explanation we have.

Jaime indicates that this kind of thing was quite common in Aerys' last day. It was particularly bad in the night Dany was conceived but there is no reason to assume Hightower never witnessed something like that or a milder version of it.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

Well, we interpret this very, very differently, I must say. I don't think there is a doubt Brandon and his companions are held, and ultimately killed, for threatening the Crown Prince's life. That is the excuse used, or so I understand the rather strong "inference" in our tale. I think we are also given Rickard's "southron ambitions" as the probable real reason for Aerys's view of the Starks, the Arryns, the Baratheons, and the Tullys as enemies. It seems very likely Aerys seizes the opportunity Brandon and his friends presents to him and charges them with threatening the life of a prince of the blood and summons their father's to answer for the son's actions. This little subterfuge doesn't work well if they are tried for conspiracy against Aerys himself, along with Rhaegar, for which none of them have done anything that could be construed as evidence of that crime. Demanding a duel with Rhaegar isn't evidence of a conspiracy against Aerys, is it?

The problem here is that we have to ask ourselves what the point of the new plot element of Aerys and his people thinking that Lyanna's coronation was evidence for a Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy was. That was a completely new element in TWoIaF. We already had Rhaegar being unhappy with the way his mad father did things and hints that he intended to do something about that (ASoS) and clues that Rhaegar was effectively plotting treason with Ser Oswell Whent (ADwD) which was then confirmed in TWoIaF.

But what was the narrative point to introduce the Aerys-Rhaegar mistrust plot in the first place and why the hell did the Starks become part of all that in Aerys' mind at Harrenhal?

I think this provides us with a major key to resolve most of the Lyanna-Rhaegar mystery around the abduction.

If Aerys believed that Rhaegar crowning Lyanna was evidence for a Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy against him despite the fact the Starks were visibly unhappy about that then the logical endpoint of that development is that Aerys is also likely to believe that Brandon threatening Rhaegar is also part of this show/mummer's farce Rhaegar and his buddies are playing. 

The idea that Aerys would come to defense of his ingrate son shortly after he has realized that Rhaegar was actually plotting with Rickard Stark against makes absolutely no sense.

If the coronation was 'evidence' for a Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy then 'Lyanna's abduction' (or her marriage to Rhaegar) would be evidence for such a conspiracy, too, regardless what Brandon or Rickard said to the contrary.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

Now, the fact that Aerys is not happy with his son, doesn't mean he won't use a threat to his life as a political opportunity to deal with people he at least perceives as conspiring against him through their marriage alliances.

There is no hint Aerys ever felt threatened by the Stark-Tully marriage nor the Stark-Baratheon marriage.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

Let's leave whether or not there is any truth in that perception out of this for now. Unfortunately for Aerys, it is not a crime for the families of the noble classes to marry with one another, and as such he can't put them on trial for doing so. He can put them on trial for threatening Rhaegar. So, I don't quite understand the tactic of including Rhaegar in a charge of a grand conspiracy against the crown, when Brandon has given Aerys everything he wants.

But that's not the impression we get from Yandel. He tells us Aerys saw the coronation as evidence for a conspiracy, not the other stuff. And he thinks people were conspiring with Rhaegar against him, the king, not against the royal dynasty.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

He isn't stupid, even if he isn't the brightest bulb on the Targaryen family tree.

Lets just say I don't think the man thinks much. The way he described as being seen by the men at Harrenhal suggests he was very far gone and clearly incapable of coherent thought often enough. People capable of rational decisions don't go from mad laughter to weeping for no reason in a number of seconds. Aerys' paranoia was fueled by fear and if you are constantly afraid you don't think rationally even if you no other mental issues. His main problem clearly was that he was unable to differentiate real/dangerous threats from imagined/harmless threats.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

Part of being paranoid, it seems to me, is seeing plots were none exist. I don't think Aerys particularly saw any loyal friends in his court, with the possible exception of Varys, who gave him most of his information about all the plots against him. The "lickspittle" lords aren't necessarily his friends, anymore than his son and his son's friends are, but that doesn't make Aerys unable to see real factions in his court.

There is actually no hint that Varys pushed Aerys against Aerys. Yandel gives us the names of the lords at court who wanted Aerys to disinherit Rhaegar and replace him with Rhaegar and it was not Varys.

And we also know that those lords who profited from the king's generosity (Merryweather, Staunton, Velaryon, Chelsted) would be his friends in Aerys' mind. The man most likely would not grant huge wealth to men he did not see as friends.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

I think what Aerys thinks of his son probably varies from day to day. If Viserys was as old as Rhaegar, it might well have become a contest of brothers for their father's favor. With the age difference, it is only Rhaegar who is an active player in the game. Viserys is only a pawn used by others. Fundamentally, Aerys views the world through  a "us vs. them" lens, with the us being the Targaryen family. The dragonlords amongst the sheep and cattle of the fields. That Rhaegar is one of the "us" is the only thing, I think, that saves him.

One should include the fact that Rhaegar was Aerys' only son for a very long time in this whole thing as well as the whole prophecy angle. The prophecy of the promised prince shaped Aerys and Rhaella's life as much as it did shape Rhaegar's (perhaps even more), and I'm pretty sure the pressure to fulfill prophecy was putting more stress on Aerys' health and sanity than the dynastic problem. He had Rhaegar and with Steffon and his sons there were close cousins at hand who could take the throne should something happen to Rhaegar.

But if Rhaegar was the promised prince (and it is pretty obvious that both Aerys and Rhaella must have believed that, too, if Rhaegar and Aemon did) then it fell to Aerys and Rhaella to produce the other dragon heads as well.

Whatever issues Aerys later had with Rhaegar on the political field I'm pretty sure it will turn out that he never actually moved against Rhaegar despite his suspicions because he still thought his son was the prophesied savior of mankind and House Targaryen.

The idea that the Mad King wasn't at heart of the prophecy business doesn't make much sense in the wake of the news about the Ghost's prophecy from ADwD.

On 26.8.2016 at 11:05 PM, SFDanny said:

The conversation shows that Rhaegar is prepared to move against his father if he returns victorious from the Trident. Does he hate his father? As I said earlier, their relationship is extremely complex, but, yes, I'd say he hates him. Probably still loves him as well. If Darry's presence means anything in the timeline, it is quite likely this scene takes place right after Aerys brutalizes, and rapes Rhaella. If Rhaegar knows of this, then he is likely extremely angry with his father. The context of this meeting is one of turning points. Turning points cut short by Rhaegar's death. 

Well, Aerys was apparently mistreating his sister-wife for quite some time. He was burning people for years in 283 AC, so he would have done something like that before. Rhaegar never intervened there, nor would he have had any right to do so, I'm afraid. The king can do whatever he wants with his wife. We also don't really know whether Rhaella and Rhaegar were ever close. They could have been. Or not. Rhaegar's sense of duty (until the Lyanna thing) could be something his mother instilled in him. If so, she should have been massively disappointed by the Lyanna affair.

[Alia of the knife]

Well, it's good to see that all is still right in this world.