A Timeframe of Ice and Fire: Two Books, Too Many Upcoming Conflicts Left To Go

[Nevets]

6 hours ago, The Bard of Banefort said:

I suspect that one of the reasons why TWOW is taking so long is that George is probably slowly realizing that he can't fit everything in TWOW and now has to do a lot of rewriting and restructuring. 

He's also probably closing off all the plot-holes, errors, etc. so people like us don't make absurd theories based on lapses and mistakes, which is something of a problem in the earlier books.  In other words, you can blame us! 

In all seriousness, I think he is a bit of a perfectionist, and getting all the detail in the books right is probably going to chew up a great deal of time.  I do wish he would get it over with though.  At this point, I'll take very good over perfect.  Especially if "perfect" never arrives.

[Greywater-Watch]

My personal résumé at the end of ADWD

Primary plot lines:

• Jon Snow (Lord Commander of the NW, installing the Free Folk in empty Castles of the wall)
• Arya Stark (Training with the FM in Braavos)
  • Nymeria and her pack in the Riverlands
• Bran Stark (Training being a greenseer with Blood Raven in his cave)
• Cersei Lannister (trying to remain in power)
• Daenerys (trying to rule Mereen)
• Tyrion (fleeing via Pentos to join Daenerys)
• Samwell Tarly and Gilly in Old Town
• Sansa and Petyr Baelish in the Vale
• Jamie Lannister (rising conflict with Cersei)
• The Others

New and/or unduly blown up plots, story lines that could well have been abandoned and/or omitted or al least reduced in length/complexity. Maybe also important story parts, but lingering much too long in the background

• Davos (looking for Rickon Stark in Skagos)
• Stannis Baratheon (preparing to conquer the North)
  • Asha Greyjoy
• Roose and Ramsey Bolton
  • preparing for battle against Stannis in Winterfell
  • marriage with false Arya
  • facing rescue Mission of Abel and his washerwomen (Mance Rayder & Spearwives)
  • tensions between Freys and Northeners
  • Wyman Manderlys plot
  • Theon's inner torments (Now Stannis' captive)
• Dorne
  • Myrcella
  • Arianne
  • Lady Nym and Tyene sent to KL
  • Obara/Balos Swann hunting Darkstar
  • Doran
• Aegon and Jon Connington (landing in Stormlands)
• Quentyn Martell (travel to Mereen)
  • continued by Arch Yronwood and Drink plotting for B. Selmy
• Euron Greyjoy
• Victarion Greyjoy
• Jamie Lannister and Brienne
• Lady Stoneheart
• Margaery Tyrell
• Loras Tyrell
• Ser Gregor (undead)
• Ser Bronn (Lord Stokeworth)
• Mereen (the famous Merreen-knot)
• Old Town
  • Archmaester Marwyn leaving for Mereen
  • the stolen key (by Faceless Man)
• Castle Black
  • Melisandre
  • Queen Selyse
  • Hardhome
  • Alisandre Karstark

[Dragonsbone]

It all depends how he continues to write. If he gets back to the roots, like in the first three novels, then I don't see any problem why he could not conclude his story in the remaining two books. But if he continues to write like he wrote book four and five, then six more books won't be enough.

[HaeSuse]

2 hours ago, Dragonsbone said:

It all depends how he continues to write. If he gets back to the roots, like in the first three novels, then I don't see any problem why he could not conclude his story in the remaining two books. But if he continues to write like he wrote book four and five, then six more books won't be enough.

Agreed 100%. 

 

The thing is, so many of those loose ends can be neatly tied up with clever positioning and weaving, which GRRM is a master of, when he wants to be. For instance, Brienne/Jamie & Cersei/Jamie Robert Strong, & Lady Stoneheart, could all be wrapped up in a a Cersei chapter, Jamie chapter and Brienne chapter. The Hound could also be sunsetted in the same arc. All of Dorne could be conveniently wrapped up in a chapter or two. Davos/Rickon, Roose/Ramsay, Stannis could all be chunked together in 3-4 chapters. etc etc etc

 

But if we open up the next book and he's introducing 3 new throne pretenders, Tyrion's sitting on his dwarven butt pondering the intricacies of hatred and loathing, Brienne's got 7 new sworn oaths, Lord Too Fat to Sit a Horse is plotting his own rebellion, Euron is scheming all sorts of new things, Dany is deciding that maybe she wants to conquer all of Essos before heading home, etc etc etc, then we might as well give up any hopes of seeing the end.

[HaeSuse]

On 7/25/2016 at 2:17 PM, Masha said:

I have no idea how GRRM is planning to fit it all in 2 books, unless he is planning to have A Dream of Spring vol 1 and vol 2 respectively (a la To Green Angel Tower type)

Nice! Always appreciate a shout-out to Tad!

[Ninerings]

We are witnessing history, folks. People do it every day. They plan to finish a project like a new deck, rebuild a car, raise a kid, and RUN from what they started because they are too lazy to finish. Perhaps they promised a best friend to let them help, or said that they would never let their new wife or boat get in the way, but they hung it up.

This is exactly what is happening here. Too big for britches and now running. I'm not as "author schooled" as most of you, but I have never seen this before in my lifetime. 

 

 

 

[Ninerings]

It's JUNE and the dude is posting about football already!

[Ser Gareth]

On Invalid Date at 5:08 PM, Dragonsbone said:

It all depends how he continues to write. If he gets back to the roots, like in the first three novels, then I don't see any problem why he could not conclude his story in the remaining two books. But if he continues to write like he wrote book four and five, then six more books won't be enough.

And I am 99% sure that if the next book ever comes out it will contain more subplots than ever.  Because he'll be determined to put as much story in there as possible that wasn't spoiled by the show.

I've accepted that we'll never see the end of the series in book form.  I'm just pleased I'll get some form of closure from the TV show.  But it will be very bittersweet because the books are so much better (well, the first three were).

[The Egg]

I agree the next books won't "clear" all the subplots, for the very simple reason that he didn't write them just to add pages to the last two books! He wrote that stuff because he thought Arianne and Brienne and Euron will have important roles in the wars to come, in the game at least, so they won't just be killed for no reason just to kill their subplot (Not all of them at least. RIP Quentyn). And if he has to choose between finishing the series in 3 books and ending storylines abruptly, I have no doubt he will choose the first.

[Ser Gareth]

12 hours ago, The Egg said:

I agree the next books won't "clear" all the subplots, for the very simple reason that he didn't write them just to add pages to the last two books! He wrote that stuff because he thought Arianne and Brienne and Euron will have important roles in the wars to come, in the game at least, so they won't just be killed for no reason just to kill their subplot (Not all of them at least. RIP Quentyn). And if he has to choose between finishing the series in 3 books and ending storylines abruptly, I have no doubt he will choose the first.

Ironically of course that means the series will almost certainly never end and it will be those subplots we never find out the resolution to!

[aFeastForDragons]

On 28 June 2017 at 11:43 PM, Ser Gareth said:

And I am 99% sure that if the next book ever comes out it will contain more subplots than ever. 

 

This is highly likely. Everyone is saying he's going to start cutting characters and tying up plots left right and centre but thats not going to happen. We have the Battle of Ice, Battle of Fire, Dany with the Dothraki, Dorne and King's Landing with Aegon in the middle, all the northern stuff, then north again beyond the wall, the Iron Islands, the Reach and lets not forget the Riverlands, oh and Arya, did I miss anyone?. The next book will be just as bloated as AFFC/ADWD judging from the released chapters and amount of converging and diverging plot lines. Its the following book where stories will begin to tie up. 

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, aFeastForDragons said:

 

This is highly likely. Everyone is saying he's going to start cutting characters and tying up plots left right and centre but thats not going to happen. We have the Battle of Ice, Battle of Fire, Dany with the Dothraki, Dorne and King's Landing with Aegon in the middle, all the northern stuff, then north again beyond the wall, the Iron Islands, the Reach and lets not forget the Riverlands, oh and Arya, did I miss anyone?. The next book will be just as bloated as AFFC/ADWD judging from the released chapters and amount of converging and diverging plot lines. Its the following book where stories will begin to tie up. 

Most of the stuff you mention can be wrapped up by the middle of TWOW.  The battles of Ice and Fire will probably take a total of 12 chapters or so, and Dany and the Dothraki 3-4.  Tyrion either will or won't settle down Meereen.  In any case, they can start heading west hopefully shortly after the midpoint of the next book.  Euron will or will not sack Oldtown and Highgarden, but that can happen relatively quickly in 3 or so chapters.  Arya will likely return to Westeros around the midpoint of TWOW, and Jaime and Brienne in the Riverlands shouldn't take too long to wrap up.  This gives plenty of opportunity for consolidation during the second half of TWOW.

I will have to admit that some of the chapters, especially Arianne and some of the Meereen stuff, worry me.  I expect that other chapters will move a bit quicker, and that the reason we haven't seen them is because they are spoilery, suggesting that quite a bit happens in the early going.  Also, the Sansa, Arya, and Theon chapters looked quite promising.

[The Egg]

I'm quite sure that characters will start converging from the very beginning... but they have an awful lot of road ahead to actually converge, so they won't "reach convergence" properly until the end of the book (i.e. when hopefully Dany will be back in Westeros).

Does this mean TWOW won't be full of subplots? On the contrary, it means it will ALL be about subplots, because there's so much each and every subplot has to do to end properly and properly converge with 3 or 4 others to make an actual major plot (e.g. Euron, Sam, Cersei, Jaime, Aryanne and Aegon could all converge into a single Iron Islands+KL vs. Reach+Dorne+Griffs plot) that there's no way he's chopping off characters and plots from the beginning of the book. And I don't believe he's even thinking to "wrap up" plots, because that's not what he does, he could've killed Victarion a hundred times and made his fleet go to Meereen in no time if he'd wanted to. He doesn't, because he wants an organic solution that makes sense for the arc of each character.

That's much harder and leads to several Knots, but makes it for better books and that's what he wants ultimately. And, even if you didn't like AFFC and ADWD as much as I did, think of Quentyn's arc and you'll realise you don't want that for every secondary character.

[The Egg]

Ok, I take everything back.
It's not ike he's trying to fix the knots.
He just doesn't give a shit.

http://grrm.livejournal.com/544709.html

Just tell us, George.

Just give up, we can live with that..

[WinterPool Stark]

Can't believe it really. In one line he says 'some months out...' and then maybe 2018/2019?!? The man has no sense of time  

[Cas Stark]

 

At this point, I'm ready to forget about the whether it will take 2 or 3 more books, because it's looking like he is barely going to be able to cobble together Winds of Winter and get that out some time in late 2018 or more likely 2019, after the Fire and Blood book.  

[WinterPool Stark]

At this point he should just release a chapter a month on his website until he releases the book. Even if it takes him another 12 months, that's only 12 chapters from Winds. In an 80 chapter book (average) 12 isn't a lot.

[The Egg]

Yeah, but I don't believe he can make it in 12 months. He says that if he's very lucky he'll publish it in 2018. And this is the same man who told his own publisher he'd finish it in six months at the beginning of 2015!
If he published a chapter a month he might very well get to the point where he finished the chapters he can publish before he published the whole book.

When he says "I'm still months away" I understand "I don't know when I'll finish". He has decades of experience with writing and he can't put an extremely broad timescale to the writing of his book, what can that mean if not "I have no clue when it'll be finished?". We kept deluding ourselves thinking how much we still have to wait, but the fact is that any guess is a wild one and he probably doesn't even know how long the book will be himself. He told us so much times and times again, after all, when he said "it's finished when it's finished".

What really makes me sad, though, is that this last announcement says much more. He'd said that Fire and Blood wouldn't come out before ADOS because it contained stories that might spoil parts of ASOIAF. Now he said, well, let's publish it after all. And this tells me he's done with ASOIAF, either he doesn't care or he's not sure he can finish it, so at least he writes something.

[WinterPool Stark]

I guess he won't release part 2 of Fire and Blood until ASOIAF is finished. Only God knows when that'll be though...

one thing, he said part 1 F&B isn't quite finished and it may be released before Winds...? What happened to not writing anything else until Winds is finished...

[Gomagoti]

On 19/05/2017 at 5:11 AM, Ninerings said:

Ugh. I read and read this site; the debates, the crackpots, the Heresy, etc. Because I love the story. NOT the author. Not Wild Cards, not whatever stuff he has in the pipes. 

This guy got rich and famous not from some novella in the 70's, but ASOIF. This is what made it to HBO and what made a what - quarter? - of the world population fall in love with the story. 

The way he takes a snide attitude about people wanting more of what put him where he is is insulting in my opinion. The HBO show has basically taken a dump on his stories, but he is putting them ahead of the ONE THING that put him where he is. 

And I am sure there will be legions who say things like "he doesn't owe you anything", or "he isn't your bitch", etc. and the mods on here will throw themselves on a grenade before someone DARE say something bad about the mighty "GRRM". But I don't apologize. The man needs to either say he isn't doing it anymore, or put on his big boy pants and finish the job. People are so quick to kiss his ass and quote "respect", but watching time and time again different projects take the forefront -or even BE RELEASED- over the next chapter in the series that is what made the man his fortune and be able to hobnob with whoever is a slap in the face no matter how you slice it. 

^This.

wholly agree. There are many great authors out there. Martin will never be in the leagues of Herbert or Tolkien, or heck, even Tad Williams or Steven King, because he is too damned stuck up to finish his own story. And he think we are here for some reason other than the story.I think most book readers, aren't.