Ser Ronan Storm

A Timeframe of Ice and Fire: Two Books, Too Many Upcoming Conflicts Left To Go

126 posts in this topic

This is kind of a general predictions/discussion thread, but I'm more interested in how the factions in Westeros are able to accommodate so many chaotic events that are on the horizon, and which factions are able to realistically participate/impact the plot moving forward. We have Littlefinger's cryptic reference to the War of Three Queens. We have GRRM's promise of a Dance with Dragons 2.0 (which will presumably feature Dany vs. Aegon). We have Dany's inevitable, slow-as-a-crippled-snail invasion of Westeros (and she isn't even near a fleet right now). We have King Euron posed to be the biggest threat to Dany, and he is currently raiding/conquering the Reach. Presumably, we only have one book in which to contain all of this before Sweet Long Night of Death carries everyone kicking and screaming into that good night. Is it realistic that GRRM could include all of these conflicts in one volume? I suppose it really comes down to when the Others breach the Wall and just how quickly they are able to move south (if they even make it that far before Jon/Dany/Dragons/HOT PIE!/Bran stops them.

Assuming we can decipher what the conflicts will be, and who will feature prominently in them, can we chart the military action throughout Westeros during the next book or two? Currently only the Vale and Dorne have intact armies. Tyrell forces are split, Stormlands are split/spent, Lannisters are spent, though Westerlands may yield up a decent number of refreshments. I just want to see if we can guess the order in which all of these conflicts will occur, and how. Dany still seems to be a long way from Westeros, yet King Euron is close. Might he and Aegon war before Dany's ships even appear on the horizon? Will both survive to cause trouble for Dany? How can Cersei and the Tyrells hope to successfully deal with each other/High Sparrow/HOT PIE!/Aegon/Euron? It is hinted that Euron will definitely sit the Iron Throne, but how quickly? He is the Party Crasher That Was Promised. Will the North get a chance to participate in this hot Southern action, or will they be too busy trying to save life itself? Have fun discussing.

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I have no idea how GRRM is planning to fit it all in 2 books, unless he is planning to have A Dream of Spring vol 1 and vol 2 respectively (a la To Green Angel Tower type)

Edited by Masha

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I don't think Martin can finish in 2 books.  Too many Essos plots is the primary reason...Vaes Dothrak, Meereen, Volantis, probably Pentos as well.  Just thinking about all the Essosi plotlines still hanging in the air depresses the hell out of me.  

The most horrifying bit of news I've read regarding Winds was that EW interview where Martin said that Dany and Tyrion are apart for much of Winds.  I gave up all hope of Dany reaching Westeros before the tail end of Winds after that interview (if she reaches the place in Winds at all)

So it will be 3 more books imo.  Now that Martin's pace is 6 years between books, this series will take probably 12+ years to finish.  Makes me want to weep just thinking about it.  :(

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Will happen the same as before, some plots will end in the background and we will learn of  them because some character tells another. Anyways the two books left will probably be huge books.

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10 hours ago, Ser Wun Wun said:

I don't think Martin can finish in 2 books.  Too many Essos plots is the primary reason...Vaes Dothrak, Meereen, Volantis, probably Pentos as well.  Just thinking about all the Essosi plotlines still hanging in the air depresses the hell out of me.  

The most horrifying bit of news I've read regarding Winds was that EW interview where Martin said that Dany and Tyrion are apart for much of Winds.  I gave up all hope of Dany reaching Westeros before the tail end of Winds after that interview (if she reaches the place in Winds at all)

So it will be 3 more books imo.  Now that Martin's pace is 6 years between books, this series will take probably 12+ years to finish.  Makes me want to weep just thinking about it.  :(

I was thinking that Martin basically has to end TWOW in the approximately same place as season 6 finale did and resolve most of superflous conflicts, conspiracies to distill the story back to basic storylines readying for the Great Conflict in order to fit the rest of the story in one last book.

By that I mean:

1) Clean up North Storyline. Either Boltons or Stannis or both got to go. Winterfell held by a Stark/Jon Snow or by Northern Lords waiting for them by end of the book

2) Clean-up Riverlands and Vale - Lady Stoneheart with Jaime and Brienne, Freys, Sansa wtih LF stuck in Vale with Harry the Heir/SmallRobyn. those got to be resolved more or less by end of this book. If Freys are still going strong, they are a distraction

3) Resolve KL storyline: There cannot be multiple choices by end of the book. Either Cersei/Margaery storyline got to go or fAegon distraction got to go and preferably take Dorne conspiracy with them.

4) Finish Braavos training and send Arya back to Westeros

5) Get Sam/Maester storyline going with solutions/answers or at least leading them there

6) Get Dany back and departing Essos/arriving at Westeros.

7) Fit Euron somewhere - have him make his move on Dragons and Dany or on Cersei or Hightower.

 

Edited by Masha

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I too doubt how can all these can be told through 20 POVs in 2 books but GRRM is capable of anything.:P Storm of Swords was full of events and twists, especially its' second half. If he does the same in Winds he can make it in two books.

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3 hours ago, Masha said:

I was thinking that Martin basically has to end TWOW in the approximately same place as season 6 finale did and resolve most of superflous conflicts, conspiracies to distill the story back to basic storylines readying for the Great Conflict in order to fit the rest of the story in one last book.

By that I mean:

1) Clean up North Storyline. Either Boltons or Stannis or both got to go. Winterfell held by a Stark/Jon Snow or by Northern Lords waiting for them by end of the book

2) Clean-up Riverlands and Vale - Lady Stoneheart with Jaime and Brienne, Freys, Sansa wtih LF stuck in Vale with Harry the Heir/SmallRobyn. those got to be resolved more or less by end of this book. If Freys are still going strong, they are a distraction

3) Resolve KL storyline: There cannot be multiple choices by end of the book. Either Cersei/Margaery storyline got to go or fAegon distraction got to go and preferably take Dorne conspiracy with them.

4) Finish Braavos training and send Arya back to Westeros

5) Get Sam/Maester storyline going with solutions/answers or at least leading them there

6) Get Dany back and departing Essos/arriving at Westeros.

7) Fit Euron somewhere - have him make his move on Dragons and Dany or on Cersei or Hightower.

 

I think you're right about this.  I believe that the story will coalesce around the "Big Six": Tyrion, Jon, Dany, Arya, Sansa, and Bran.  the other stories will be either resolved or merge with theirs.  With respect to your specific points

1.  The Boltons' days are numbered  They have way too many enemies and way too few friends to last long.  That story will be resolved quickly.  Uncertain what happens with Davos and Rickon, though.  I think Davos will get involved in Hardhome, and possibly go farther North - possibly involving Benjen.  His story could easily connect with the Others.  Bran will leave the cqave, and head someplace where he can be useful.  My guess is Winterfell.

2.  Jaime / Brienne / LSH will be resolved quickly.  I doubt Brienne dies, but Jaime could.  Sasnsa will leave the Vale, probably for the North, and will have dealt with Littlefinger by the end of TWOW.  As soon as Lord Walder dies, the Freys will start killing each other.  Their days as a force are also numbered.

3.  I think Aegon is a red herring.  He will either be exposed as a fake or killed fairly quickly.  KL plot will focus on Cersei and possibly Sand Snakes with the Tyrells possibly in the mix.  It will be resolved by the end of TWOW, though.

4.  Arya will leave the FM and return to Westeros by the middle of TWOW.  No way is she becoming FM or learning to change faces.  If she was, she would be well on her way by now, and she isn't.

6.  Dany will head towards Westeros by the middle of TWOW.  Any later and it will be too late to have any realistic effect on the story.  This story has been spinning its wheels for too long.  Time for something to happen. 

As long as the Others attack and Dany arrives in Westeros well before the end of TWOW, he can finish in two books. but both events have to occur by about the 3/4 mark or it will be too late.  And he has to resolve most of the remaining subplots and not add any more, or this thing is never going to end.  The story is too spread out for its own good.

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If the snows fully cover Westeros and it takes week on end to travel anywhere like Stannis's death march to Winterfell then we will need 3, maybe even 4 books to finish up the story. 

 

The wall is still standing, Dany is miles away and getting even further away from westeros, another contender for the Iron Throne has just started a new war, Arya and Sansa still have a lot of training to do etc etc

Edited by aFeastForDragons

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39 minutes ago, Nevets said:

 As long as the Others attack and Dany arrives in Westeros well before the end of TWOW, he can finish in two books. but both events have to occur by about the 3/4 mark or it will be too late.  And he has to resolve most of the remaining subplots and not add any more, or this thing is never going to end.  The story is too spread out for its own good.

i think you're right about that. There are far too many points for this story to really have a proper conclusion (but in a way that's what makes this series so good), so many of the plotlines will have to come from 3rd person. The problem is, a lot of the story can't be derived this way such as;

  • Bran/Reeds/Three-eyed crow saga.  There is no obvious ending or direction for this to go, and for them to even get to the Night Watch plot would take a long time. And i get the feeling that the three-eyed crow isn't done with them by a long way; there have only been 2 POV chapters about this 
  • Danys/Dragons. Her story just has too many outlets, for her to in arrive anywhere near time to have a storyline of its own, and this could impact on the series. And even if she does, there probably won't be enough time to reunite with Rhaegal and Viserion, which could be a problem
  • Arya/Faceless Men. What the heck is she supposed to do once she finishes FM training? If she does that is. How can she get back to Westeros, and how is she going to have any impact on the general story? And what part does her training and the FM have to play?

I believe this story was once meant to tie together at the end, but GRRM has spread it out too far. Unless he crams a couple of thousand of pages in his next two books, there is no way he can manage any sort of conclusion without making an 8th book, at least not without having to more or less desert most of the plotlines, and use the 3rd person strategy, which is would be an insult to the series, and leave us needing more.

 

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4 hours ago, RedPriest said:

i think you're right about that. There are far too many points for this story to really have a proper conclusion (but in a way that's what makes this series so good), so many of the plotlines will have to come from 3rd person. The problem is, a lot of the story can't be derived this way such as;

  • Bran/Reeds/Three-eyed crow saga.  There is no obvious ending or direction for this to go, and for them to even get to the Night Watch plot would take a long time. And i get the feeling that the three-eyed crow isn't done with them by a long way; there have only been 2 POV chapters about this 
  • Danys/Dragons. Her story just has too many outlets, for her to in arrive anywhere near time to have a storyline of its own, and this could impact on the series. And even if she does, there probably won't be enough time to reunite with Rhaegal and Viserion, which could be a problem
  • Arya/Faceless Men. What the heck is she supposed to do once she finishes FM training? If she does that is. How can she get back to Westeros, and how is she going to have any impact on the general story? And what part does her training and the FM have to play?

I believe this story was once meant to tie together at the end, but GRRM has spread it out too far. Unless he crams a couple of thousand of pages in his next two books, there is no way he can manage any sort of conclusion without making an 8th book, at least not without having to more or less desert most of the plotlines, and use the 3rd person strategy, which is would be an insult to the series, and leave us needing more.

 

Indeed, GRRM seems to have stretched himself too thin considering he's supposed to be winding down as of the end of Book 5. I know from the Mercy chapter that Lord Swift and his delegation have arrived in Braavos. I kind of hope that for expediency, Arya just boards their ship when they return to King's Landing. Otherwise, we'd have to have a chapter or several later down the line of Arya sailing back to Westeros, which will likely be super dull.

As for Dany, I can only imagine how much time will be wasted in Vaes Dothrak, but again to save time, if she gains a Dothraki horde, she will likely order them to march on Volantis while she flies via Drogon Airlines to Meereen to sort or abort the myriad plotlines there. Somehow she will have a fleet of ships and she and her Unsullied forces and sellswords will sail to aid the Dothraki in sacking Volantis, then they head to Pentos before jumping to Westeros. It just seems like we need to see Illyrio at least one more time before the series ends, but I don't see him leaving Pentos again.

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2 hours ago, Ser Ronan Storm said:

As for Dany, I can only imagine how much time will be wasted in Vaes Dothrak, but again to save time, if she gains a Dothraki horde, she will likely order them to march on Volantis while she flies via Drogon Airlines to Meereen to sort or abort the myriad plotlines there. Somehow she will have a fleet of ships and she and her Unsullied forces and sellswords will sail to aid the Dothraki in sacking Volantis, then they head to Pentos before jumping to Westeros. It just seems like we need to see Illyrio at least one more time before the series ends, but I don't see him leaving Pentos again.

Dany might not even go to VD; after all, she doesn't want to go, and she's got a big nasty dragon to back her up. What's most likely is that she will ask them for directions, and even use them as guides. She will go to Meereen, or else Victarion and Ser Barristan will come to her. I'm not sure about the Volantis bit, but i'm reasonably sure that she will use their fleet to get to Westeros.If she meets Illyrio, he's going to suggest her marriage to Aegon, or at least to join forces. Speaking of Aegon, I wonder how GRRM is going to prove/disprove his identity as the son of Rhaegar?

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2 hours ago, RedPriest said:

Dany might not even go to VD; after all, she doesn't want to go, and she's got a big nasty dragon to back her up. What's most likely is that she will ask them for directions, and even use them as guides. She will go to Meereen, or else Victarion and Ser Barristan will come to her. I'm not sure about the Volantis bit, but i'm reasonably sure that she will use their fleet to get to Westeros.If she meets Illyrio, he's going to suggest her marriage to Aegon, or at least to join forces. Speaking of Aegon, I wonder how GRRM is going to prove/disprove his identity as the son of Rhaegar?

I'm not sure the truth of Aegon's lineage will be revealed in the text, and it's probably better for the story if the readers keep guessing. If he is really a Blackfyre/Illyrio's son, then Illyrio and Varys will never speak openly about that truth. They seem to be supporting Dany as well and we speculate that they will press for an Aegon-Dany marriage. They wouldn't spill the truth to her because Dany might be disinclined to marry the pretender branch of the Targaryen family. I just assume that if Dany is forced to fight Aegon (not sure why they wouldn't get along at this point unless maybe the High Sparrow or the Citadel turns Aegon against Dany because magic = bad), it will be GRRM's stated intent of history repeating itself: we'd have a Dance of the Dragons and a Blackfyre Rebellion happening at the same time.

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3 hours ago, Ser Ronan Storm said:

I'm not sure the truth of Aegon's lineage will be revealed in the text, and it's probably better for the story if the readers keep guessing. If he is really a Blackfyre/Illyrio's son, then Illyrio and Varys will never speak openly about that truth. They seem to be supporting Dany as well and we speculate that they will press for an Aegon-Dany marriage. They wouldn't spill the truth to her because Dany might be disinclined to marry the pretender branch of the Targaryen family. I just assume that if Dany is forced to fight Aegon (not sure why they wouldn't get along at this point unless maybe the High Sparrow or the Citadel turns Aegon against Dany because magic = bad), it will be GRRM's stated intent of history repeating itself: we'd have a Dance of the Dragons and a Blackfyre Rebellion happening at the same time.

I'll be fine with it. My personal opinion whether Aegon is real or fake he will die before Dany even touches the shores of Westeros. She might hear about him and start making plans about him, but they will never ever meet

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The thing is, the Westeros storyline, will probably be focused around Aegon, and unless Mace finally decides to face him, he'll win battle after battle until it's too late for the Lannister-Tyrell administration which is going to eventually fail. Unless some of the lords manage to hold some type of Grand Council, the crown is likely to go to the first one to take King's Landing, regardless of whether Aegon is a fake or not. The interesting thing is what will happen afterwards for the one who gets there second.

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31 minutes ago, RedPriest said:

The thing is, the Westeros storyline, will probably be focused around Aegon, and unless Mace finally decides to face him, he'll win battle after battle until it's too late for the Lannister-Tyrell administration which is going to eventually fail. Unless some of the lords manage to hold some type of Grand Council, the crown is likely to go to the first one to take King's Landing, regardless of whether Aegon is a fake or not. The interesting thing is what will happen afterwards for the one who gets there second.

I actually strongly suspect that Aegon won't last long enough to play much of a role in the story.  I certainly hope not.  There are enough stories without adding him to the mix.  Enough already!

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48 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I actually strongly suspect that Aegon won't last long enough to play much of a role in the story.  I certainly hope not.  There are enough stories without adding him to the mix.  Enough already!

I too have a hard time imagining how Aegon could last deep into The Winds of Winter. I think he may end up taking King's Landing after Cersei/Tyrells/Sparrows tear each other apart, but almost immediately after he plants his arse on the Iron Throne, Euron is going to show up and kill him.

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Aegon will survive TWOW, he will die in ADOS when Daenerys burns him along with the Iron Throne, The Red Keep and King's Landing.

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Dany is so much of a humanitarian that she spent a whole year campaigning in Slavers Bay. What makes you think she'll kill half million people?

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On 27 July 2016 at 7:29 AM, Ser Ronan Storm said:

As for Dany, I can only imagine how much time will be wasted in Vaes Dothrak, but again to save time, if she gains a Dothraki horde, she will likely order them to march on Volantis while she flies via Drogon Airlines to Meereen to sort or abort the myriad plotlines there. Somehow she will have a fleet of ships and she and her Unsullied forces and sellswords will sail to aid the Dothraki in sacking Volantis, then they head to Pentos before jumping to Westeros. It just seems like we need to see Illyrio at least one more time before the series ends, but I don't see him leaving Pentos again.

 

That would be a whole book in itself, nevermind any of the other POVs. I don't want to see the ending rushed with people suddenly packing up and heading to their destination but the story will never end otherwise. 

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I have been saying 3 since the moment I finished Dance. I literally put the book down and said? Uhh, nope.

My own gripe, and this was before the spoiler chapters, was about the Others. The readers know they are a threat, the Watch knows they are a threat and Stannis knows they are a threat. Maybe Benerro and his crew have an inkling.

That's it!

That's not enough, the entire continent of Westeros has been thrown into chaos by the machinations of a few people in the South. I want the Others to show up at the Dornish borders. Let Dorne be the new template for humanity, at least they are closer to gender equality.  I want the hubris of the lands to the South to suffer, and that's going to take pages, a lot of pages.

Now with the Aeron spoiler chapter, that foreshadowing is a whole book.

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