U.S. Elections - Philadelphia edition

[Shryke]

Well yeah, Assange is a moron. Shit, he (or whoever controls the wikileak twitter anyway) was deleting vaguely anti-semetic tweets a few days ago.

Also, on that front, some more:

Quote

The FBI suspects that Russian government hackers breached the networks of the Democratic National Committee and stole emails that were posted to the anti-secrecy site WikiLeaks on Friday. It’s an operation that several U.S. officials now suspect was a deliberate attempt to influence the presidential election in favor of Donald Trump, according to five individuals familiar with the investigation of the breach.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/25/fbi-suspects-russia-hacked-dnc-u-s-officials-say-it-was-to-elect-donald-trump.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

[DunderMifflin]

So this 8ft tall 4 mile long great wall built around the DNC. Is this normal practice or gotcha journalism??? 

Whatever happened to building bridges instead of walls

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Stein isn't actually a threat though. She's not on the ballot in the most of the swing states, so even the 2%-3% she's getting in the polls now is dramatically overstated (also, she got 44,000 votes in 2012 in the end). Johnson's support is likely also overstated (although this cycle is weird, so maybe not by as much as usual), but at least he's actually on the ballot in all 50 states.

ETA: On another note, Sanders is talking to his delegates right now, trying to get them on board the unity train before the convention starts. He really is trying his hardest, but it doesn't look like its going so great right now.

I think Johnson will take a lot of people who are natural Republicans but can't stand Trump.  I also think he will pull centrists that might otherwise vote for Hillary.  It's the latter category that's a problem. I think he will do better in places like Northern Virginia, Research Triangle, etc. than you might otherwise expect.

[snake]

I seen an interesting poll on linked on Twitter the other day.  80% of the people who were going to vote for Trump were doing so because they didn't like Clinton.  75% of those going to vote for Clinton were doing so because they didn't like Trump.  Out of those intending to vote for both only 26% liked either of their candidates.  That's crazy.  Lmao.

 

The level of discontent with the status quo must be finally starting to sink in with those in power?  They are not that out of touch with reality are they?

[IheartIheartTesla]

1 hour ago, sologdin said:

why is everyone freaking about people wanting to feel the johnson?  won't that split the rightwing vote?

To put in slightly less emotional terms than some others here, a full third of Sanders supporters are not "committed Democrats", meaning they may vote D, or R or may split the ticket in prior elections (some among those are also first timers with no long history of voting D). So some of the Johnson vote might be siphoning off potential voters who may have gone for Clinton.

She may still squeak it through without their help. Early days yet.

[Kalbear]

The news of trump getting ahead in polls now plus the dnc leak plus the Sanders supporters having revolted against Sanders has me the most depressed I've been in a while. I feel like this is the moment that Trump wins. And there's nothing I can do to stop it.

[Fez]

11 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I think Johnson will take a lot of people who are natural Republicans but can't stand Trump.  I also think he will pull centrists that might otherwise vote for Hillary.  It's the latter category that's a problem. I think he will do better in places like Northern Virginia, Research Triangle, etc. than you might otherwise expect.

See I don't think he's a threat to usually Democratic centrist voters at all. He likely will take some usually Republican centrists who can't stand Trump but can't bring themselves to vote for Clinton, even though don't really agree with any of Johnson's positions. I think the threat to Clinton is pulling votes from left, almost entirely on the basis of his stance on marijuana legalization and of not being Clinton or Trump.

I also expect NoVa to vote overwhelming for Clinton, even moreso than we did for Obama. The Democrats here aren't college students or activists, its all people who's jobs rely on the Federal government, one or another, and generally support the status quo and are highly educated. If Johnson has a good result in NoVa, it'll be because the actual, literal members of the Republican establishment decided to go for him instead of Trump, and Trump ends up with 20%-25% in the NoVa counties instead of the 35% Romney got

 

I'd peg Virginia as possibly the safest of the battleground states, or maybe second, behind Colorado. 

[Maithanet]

2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

The news of trump getting ahead in polls now plus the dnc leak plus the Sanders supporters having revolted against Sanders has me the most depressed I've been in a while. I feel like this is the moment that Trump wins. And there's nothing I can do to stop it.

Fortunately, the election is not today.  The DNC emails thing will be mostly forgotten by November.  I'm still hoping that the convention can do it's job and bring some positive news to the Clinton campaign. 

And I guess I am going to start to have to put my money where my mouth is and actually do some volunteering this election, which I've never done before (although I probably would have in '08 if it hadn't been in the bag). 

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

The news of trump getting ahead in polls now plus the dnc leak plus the Sanders supporters having revolted against Sanders has me the most depressed I've been in a while. I feel like this is the moment that Trump wins. And there's nothing I can do to stop it.

There's nothing to be depressed about until we see the polls that come out early next week. McCain and Romney both tied or led Obama after their conventions as well. This stuff doesn't last. And if it does last, yeah, then its time to be depressed. But its far too early to know.

The Sanders supporters (the DNC leak is a related issue) may be more of a lasting problem, but the thing to remember is that the ones actually in Philly this week aren't typical Sanders supporters. These are the most engaged, most left-wing, most "against the system" people around, and even they weren't unanimously revolting against Sanders (although it sound like at least a majority were). They aren't representative. And there's only 1,800 of them. There will be 50,000 others in the convention hall who are all pro-Clinton and that'll be the only background noise anyone hears during the prime time speeches. And it'll only be the prime time speeches that most voters every see from the convention.

[Boris the Blade]

1 hour ago, Maester Drew said:

No surprise there. Many of his supporters, as you well know, despise Hillary Clinton.

 

@BloodRider

He's still a far better choice than recklessness and buffoonery.

No he really isn't, especially when his economic plan is beyond reckless and ignorant. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

44,000 was the number I heard; seems I heard wrong. I didn't actually look it up myself.

I really don't see Stein as a threat, ballot access is too big a barrier. The threats are people staying home or voting for Johnson. Maybe they would vote for Stein if they could, but they can't; even if some of them won't realize that until they see the ballot.

 

I think you're overstating the ballot access issue. She's on the ballot in 22 states including 3 key swing states (FL, OH and CO) and she's still fighting to get on the ballot in 25 more states (the only "swing" state she won't have a chance of being on the ballot is NC). I doubt she will get 3% of the vote nationally, but if she can do that in a close swing state it could be a problem for Clinton (especially if Johnson also does well in said state). 

[Kalbear]

I'm volunteering. I'm working to try to join my citizens committee on law enforcement oversight. I'm putting in money.

And with this and my son's cancer and the asshole ex threatening my wife and just ALL THIS FUCKING SHIT..it's just too goddamm much.

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think you're overstating the ballot access issue. She's on the ballot in 22 states including 3 key swing states (FL, OH and CO) and she's still fighting to get on the ballot in 25 more states (the only "swing" state she won't have a chance of being on the ballot is NC). I doubt she will get 3% of the vote nationally, but if she can do that in a close swing state it could be a problem for Clinton (especially if Johnson also does well in said state). 

But also keep in mind that in general, third party candidates do worse in swing states than they do nationally, because there is more pressure on voters to pick a winning candidate because their vote matters more.  Whereas anybody who wants to vote for Stein or Johnson in California, New York or Texas can go right ahead without having any such concerns.  In 2000, Nader got 2.9% nationally, and topped 5% in 10 contests, but only one of those ten was a particularly close contest (Oregon, where he got 5.1% and Gore won by just 7,000 votes).

[TrackerNeil]

16 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

The news of trump getting ahead in polls now plus the dnc leak plus the Sanders supporters having revolted against Sanders has me the most depressed I've been in a while. I feel like this is the moment that Trump wins. And there's nothing I can do to stop it.

As Maithanet said, it's still early. I expect Clinton will get a post-convention bounce as well, and that may change the numbers. Also, ther eis evidence that July-August polling isn't very accurate. 

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

And with this and my son's cancer and the asshole ex threatening my wife and just ALL THIS FUCKING SHIT..it's just too goddamm much.

I'm sorry to hear about your son.  No one wants to go through that.  All the best. 

[sologdin]

yeah, keep calm and carry on, kids.  it's the blitz right now.  but soon enough patton and zhukov will squeeze berlin.

ETA--

kal holy fuck--all sympathy regarding your son.

[NestorMakhnosLovechild]

Sometimes, in my darkest moments, I wonder if it wouldn't be worth a Trump win just to watch some of my most favorite smug, sanctimonious liberals completely wet the bed and gnash their teeth in despair.

I try to quickly dispel these thoughts, but I admit, on some days they seem unusually appealing. 

Whoops - to dispel any possible misinterpretations - that was my thought after reading about Sanders being booed by his (former) supporters. Not trying to pile on to the personal tragedies of some (arguably smug) liberals on this board with lots of shit going on right now - sorry Kal .

[TerraPrime]

2 hours ago, sologdin said:

why is everyone freaking about people wanting to feel the johnson?  won't that split the rightwing vote?

I can't speak for anyone else, but I would rather have Trump than Johnson as our president. Libertarianism is worse than facism, neonazism, and xenophobia all mixed and multiplied. Trump will have to rape more than just women before I will support Johnson. In fact, I can't think of anything right now that Trump can literally do to make me pick Johnson over him.

[TerraPrime]

34 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

The news of trump getting ahead in polls now plus the dnc leak plus the Sanders supporters having revolted against Sanders has me the most depressed I've been in a while. I feel like this is the moment that Trump wins. And there's nothing I can do to stop it.

It's the post-convention bump that all candidates get.

 

Yes, in a sane world, Trump shouldn't even be here. But since he is, he's going to get that 35+% of GOP followers just for having the "R" next to his name. Let the dust settle following the DNC and we will get a more accurate sense of the polling.

[Shryke]

Yeah, polling right now seems mostly still the effect of Comey's press conference hitjob and the convention bounce. Some people thought maybe the epic shambles of the convention would mean no bounce, but that does not appear to be the case.

The other thing to remember with polling is that alot of polls I'm seeing these days seem to be predicting a much whiter electorate then 2012, which obviously favours Trump and I think is a rather bad assumption.