Brown Ben Plumm Will Ride Viserion

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

We have been over this.

And you cannot imagine how grateful I am that you choose to keep going over such things with me. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Tyrion is the guy who gets hints that he might claim Viserion. If you were building a case for Rhaegal and Ben I could follow you up to a point.

Spoiler

Rhaegal is the one who is still out in the open and flying across the bay,

and he will be the one who is going to be affected by Dragonbinder which is going to be sounded very soon. Viserion might not even hear the sound of the horn. And if he does it might affect him the effects are likely going to be less than with Rhaegal.

Ah, ah, ah... supposed to put that in spoilers, buddy, or I'll have to say a prayer to the mods... they're always watching us through the trees, you know. As to your point, as my little girl would likely respond, "Yeah, duh." That's why Brown Ben (or maybe Tyrion) will be winning the heart and mind of Viserion, not Rhaegal. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

If a dragon gets wounded during the entire battle it should be Rhaegal. Vic and the Ironborn aren't cowards. If a mad dragon sets their ship afire and rips people to pieces they will fight back. And neither Viserion nor Rhaegal are all that large or well-armored as of yet. If they are close enough to be attacked by spear, sword, or axe they will get injured. And they might even be killed.

The idea that a young dragon as agile as Viserion or Rhaegal are going to be hit by a rock or scorpion bolt is pretty silly by comparison. We see how quick those young dragons can be with Moodancer vs. Sunfyre, especially if they are in the air. And those catapults are fixed. They are not designed to hit moving targets in the air.

I would say the bolts are more likely, especially with young dragons like Viserion...

Quote

The tale reached Dragonstone only when Prince Aegon arrived desperately clinging to the neck of his dragon, Stormcloud. The boy was white with terror, shaking like a leaf and stinking of piss. Only nine, he had never flown before … and would never fly again, for Stormcloud had been terribly wounded as he fled, arriving with the stubs of countless arrows embedded in his belly and a scorpion bolt through his neck. He died within the hour, hissing as the hot blood gushed black and smoking from his wounds

The Princess and the Queen

But in any event, it might be, as I allowed in the OP, that Viserion might just get sick from 

Spoiler

those infected corpses he's been munching on. 

See? That's how you employ spoilers! Perhaps a corpse hurled from Dragonbreaker. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

But bonding with an injured dragon is also somewhat silly. You cannot ride it, and perhaps not even use it to fight anyone. But I honestly doubt Tyrion would help a man like Plumm to become a dragonrider. They are not friends. They are using each other. And especially Tyrion might no longer have any use for Plumm after the Yunkish are dealt with and Tyrion finally becomes a part of team Dany. I mean, the chances that he actually wants to pay all that money to those thugs is not that likely. They are scum.

Tyrion has gotten great service from such scum in the past, and, yes, I believe he did see Bronn as a friend, at least to some degree. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The series is not going to fulfill such petty fan fantasies. 

Not unless they're yours, eh? 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The chances that Alys Rivers went into the Mountains of the Moon are about zero. If you want such a weirdo idea you could, perhaps, speculate that Nettles was carrying Daemon's love child when they parted. Then some of the Burned Men could have Targaryen blood. But the chances that Timett has any such blood are not that high. Nor are the chances good that he is actual the rightful heir of the Vale. He is the son of Timett, after all, and I'm pretty sure that the Burned Men would kill every Arryn descendant they can lay their hands on rather than raise him as one of their own.

As I said above, if the fire witch was Nettles, that sets up Timett as a descendant of Daemon Targaryen... just like Brown Ben. 

[lojzelote]

9 minutes ago, Makk said:

Yes, we know Nettles didn't gradually build up a rapport with Sheepsteeler over the space of months. We know she didn't spend a little longer each day with it talking after bringing her food. We know Nettles never had to beat a hasty retreat. We know she didn't scratch it under the wing or sing lullabies to it. We know all this because because a maester of unquestionable accuracy, despite not having a first (or second) hand account of what actually happened, didn't specifically say it. And every single dragon liked the taste of sheep just as much as Sheepstealer, in spite of Sheepstealer being given her name specifically for the number of sheep she ate.

But seriously, Dragons kill a lot of people who try to ride them, including those who definitely have Valyrian blood. Sheepstealer killed several would be dragonseeds. And although Dragons were widespread, they were not common. Their size and the amount of food they require would prohibit that. I don't actually see how you would capture a wild dragon so know, it doesn't surprise me at all that this was exceptionally unusual.

I don't claim to be an expert at wildlife, but I'd be amazed if any feral fully grown predator could ever be fully tamed. Hell, my family had a cat that was brought home as a half-wild little kitten unused to people. She never fully trusted us, and we had been been spoiling her rotten for her entire life. So, I can hardly imagine that a fully-grown fire-breathing T-Rex started acting towards some girl like an obedient lapdog because she fed him some sheep. I know this is fantasy, but c'mon. If this is true, dragonriding should have indeed be widespread in ancient Planetosi history and it should be preserved in old legends. If we can get BS about Artys Arryn flying upon the back of a giant falcon, we could have surely gotten this.

If the Valyrians could have done it, there is no reason as to why any people couldn't have as well, no? Besides, Sheepstealer was wild, too, and Nettle tamed him. So, I don't see why many other people in the ancient times couldn't have tamed a wild dragon just as she did. If you need nothing else but a bit of courage and some livestock to spare, dragonriding should have been a common occurence among various tribes. Humans are risk takers. If one person tamed a dragon by accident, there's no way that many more would not have tried to emulate it. They would have had loads of motivation, because controling a dragon would have given them a great advantage over all others. I can easily imagine dragontaming becoming a ritual that is supposed to prove that you are a worthy leader.

That aside, to tame dragons you don't have to approach an adult feral dragon, all you need to do is to find a nest with eggs or hatchlings and rear them to adulthood. In fact, that's the one and only way I could see it work if there was indeed nothing genetic about dragonbonding. (But I have some doubts even regarding that - I've watched a document about wolves raised by humans, and well, they can apparently get pretty snappy and dangerous even with all that gentle care and memories of their foster parents.)

So, it there's no genetic component to dragonbonding, all people on Planetos save the Valyrians were desperately unimaginative bordering on stupid, or GRRM didn't think it through at all.

[Lord Varys]

49 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

I find it very likely. The dragonriders will be the easiest way to neutralize the dragon. They will be made targets off.

Sure, but if Tyrion is one of the riders he simply won't die until the last battle of the series. And the same goes for Daenerys. If we have Vic or Ben as a dragonrider it is not unlikely that they would die before the end, of course, but it is pretty likely that then some important characters from the books rather than recently introduced no-names will claim that dragon.

49 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

And if the nameless descendents of the bastards don't know about there is still alot of nobility who would. Besides Brienne or the Martells there are plenty of Targaryens who are unaccounted for. Nor is it an unlikely scenario for ambitious nobles to dust off old genealogies and try for a dragon. I am fairly sure Dany won't have a monopoly on them, and she could gain or lose allies over this. This is huge plot point. I don't see Martin not milking it.

He did milk that one during the First Dance. But there won't be as many dragons around during the Second Dance.

49 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

I think you are making a lot of baseless assumptions about the horn. I do think that Euron gave it to Vic, because that thing is dangerous and he doesn't really know what to do with it, but that doesn't mean it isn't legit. It is definitely magic and for all we know after hearing it Rhaegal will come docilely at Vic's feet waiting to be ridden. Dany got her dragons through blood sacrifice. This could well be a portable version. Maybe it makes dragonlords. We just don't know.

That is a possible scenario but did you miss Moqorro's strange remark about the future he has seen for Victarion? That doesn't sound as if Vic is going to get the stuff Moqorro has promised him. Moqorro's purpose here was to thwart Euron's plan and deliver the Iron Fleet and Dragonbinder to Daenerys. Victarion is just a means to that end.

And from a narrative point of view George is not very likely to have a character lay out some plan and then have reality match that plan precisely. Victarion becoming a dragonrider would essentially be just that. And as things stand Vic is too large and heavy to ride one of the dragons as of yet. Drogon struggled to take wing with Dany on his back, and she is a small and slim girl. Victarion is a veritable giant, and even heavier when he wears his armor. If Vic claimed one of the dragons he is not likely going to be able to ride it for quite some time.

[Lord Varys]

37 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

And you cannot imagine how grateful I am that you choose to keep going over such things with me.

I'd also like to discuss the whole Larys Strong thing you started recently. I found that interesting.

37 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I would say the bolts are more likely, especially with young dragons like Viserion...

Those people had a reason to fire bolts and the dragons, especially the one the prince was escaping on. Better kill him than allow him to get away. But why on earth should anyone during the battle of Meereen shoot bolts or arrows or anything on the dragons? They don't attack anyone, right?

37 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

But in any event, it might be, as I allowed in the OP, that Viserion might just get sick from 

  Hide contents

those infected corpses he's been munching on. 

See? That's how you employ spoilers! Perhaps a corpse hurled from Dragonbreaker. 

Didn't you know that dragons can't get sick ;-)?

37 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

As I said above, if the fire witch was Nettles, that sets up Timett as a descendant of Daemon Targaryen... just like Brown Ben. 

You wrote about Timett being a descendant of One-Eye. That's Aemond.

 

22 minutes ago, lojzelote said:

I don't claim to be an expert at wildlife, but I'd be amazed if any feral fully grown predator could ever be fully tamed. Hell, my family had a cat that was brought home as a half-wild little kitten unused to people. She never fully trusted us, and we had been been spoiling her rotten for her entire life. So, I can hardly imagine that a fully-grown fire-breathing T-Rex started acting towards some girl like an obedient lapdog because she fed him some sheep. I know this is fantasy, but c'mon. If this is true, dragonriding should have indeed be widespread in ancient Planetosi history and it should be preserved in old legends. If we can get BS about Artys Arryn flying upon the back of a giant falcon, we could have surely gotten this.

If the Valyrians could have done it, there is no reason as to why any people couldn't have as well, no? Besides, Sheepstealer was wild, too, and Nettle tamed him. So, I don't see why many other people in the ancient times couldn't have tamed a wild dragon just as she did. If you need nothing else but a bit of courage and some livestock to spare, dragonriding should have been a common occurence among various tribes. Humans are risk takers. If one person tamed a dragon by accident, there's no way that many more would not have tried to emulate it. They would have had loads of motivation, because controling a dragon would have given them a great advantage over all others. I can easily imagine dragontaming becoming a ritual that is supposed to prove that you are a worthy leader.

That aside, to tame dragons you don't have to approach an adult feral dragon, all you need to do is to find a nest with eggs or hatchlings and rear them to adulthood. In fact, that's the one and only way I could see it work if there was indeed nothing genetic about dragonbonding. (But I have some doubts even regarding that - I've watched a document about wolves raised by humans, and well, they can apparently get pretty snappy and dangerous even with all that gentle care and memories of their foster parents.)

So, it there's no genetic component to dragonbonding, all people on Planetos save the Valyrians were desperately unimaginative bordering on stupid, or GRRM didn't think it through at all.

The idea that a ten-year-old boy like Aemond could actually control an huge beast like Vhagar is insane even with the whole magical 'blood of the dragon' thing. Ten-year-olds usually are afraid of large animals, and they are not trained to command or direct them with whips and the like. Yet for some reason that worked not only with Aemond and Vhagar but with all the other Targaryen dragons, too. That strongly suggests that there was a magical link between them.

And we see evidence for that in the stories, too. When Laena and Daemon loved each other Vhagar and Caraxes got along, too. When Aemond and Daemon hated each other their dragons gladly killed each other. Sunfyre may have searched out Aegon II on Dragonstone and Dreamfyre strongly reacted to the death of her rider Queen Helaena in the distant Red Keep. Even Drogon may have felt Daenerys' need and confusion in ADwD. The blood eventually had him come down into the pit but to see and smell the blood he had to be close by first.

Hell, perhaps it was Rhaenyra's grief and anger at the sight of Joffrey falling to his death when Syrax rejected him that led to Syrax's own death. She apparently landed near the Dragonpit and failed to leave or properly fight back when she got attacked.

[Lost Melnibonean]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd also like to discuss the whole Larys Strong thing you started recently. I found that interesting.

Those people had a reason to fire bolts and the dragons, especially the one the prince was escaping on. Better kill him than allow him to get away. But why on earth should anyone during the battle of Meereen shoot bolts or arrows or anything on the dragons? They don't attack anyone, right?

Didn't you know that dragons can't get sick ;-)?

You wrote about Timett being a descendant of One-Eye. That's Aemond.

 

The idea that a ten-year-old boy like Aemond could actually control an huge beast like Vhagar is insane even with the whole magical 'blood of the dragon' thing. Ten-year-olds usually are afraid of large animals, and they are not trained to command or direct them with whips and the like. Yet for some reason that worked not only with Aemond and Vhagar but with all the other Targaryen dragons, too. That strongly suggests that there was a magical link between them.

And we see evidence for that in the stories, too. When Laena and Daemon loved each other Vhagar and Caraxes got along, too. When Aemond and Daemon hated each other their dragons gladly killed each other. Sunfyre may have searched out Aegon II on Dragonstone and Dreamfyre strongly reacted to the death of her rider Queen Helaena in the distant Red Keep. Even Drogon may have felt Daenerys' need and confusion in ADwD. The blood eventually had him come down into the pit but to see and smell the blood he had to be close by first.

Hell, perhaps it was Rhaenyra's grief and anger at the sight of Joffrey falling to his death when Syrax rejected him that led to Syrax's own death. She apparently landed near the Dragonpit and failed to leave or properly fight back when she got attacked.

Pretty sure I acknowledged that Nettles was more likely than Alys. 

[Lord Varys]

That is what you wrote:

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Yes. Like Timett son of Timett. You're gonna love this one...

So there's that little box about the Mountain Clans in the Vale, TWOIAF that says the Burned Men were spun off the painted dogs when they were enthralled by a fire witch with a dragon. I read Alys into this when I first read it, but the more likely candidate was Nettles since the fire witch commanded a dragon. I still like Alys, though, so...

What if the dragon wasn't a dragon like Sheepstealer but the child of Aemond One-Eye?!? And what if Timmet (who has one eye ) is not only the true heir to the Vale (as we all know is true, right?), but also a descendant ol' One-Eye?!? 

Even if the fire witch was Nettles with Sheepsteeler, well we have another connection since Brown Ben and Timett would both descend from Daemon Targaryen. 

Dude's gonna ride Viserion after Brown Ben gets whacked. I will bet half a groat. 

You say Nettles is more likely to have founded the Burned Men but you never say you believe Nettles may have been pregnant. That you attach only to the Alys thing.

[Lost Melnibonean]

9 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is what you wrote:

You say Nettles is more likely to have founded the Burned Men but you never say you believe Nettles may have been pregnant. That you attach only to the Alys thing.

Sorry... Nettles might have been preggers. Thought you knew that. 

[The Sleeper]

36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but if Tyrion is one of the riders he simply won't die until the last battle of the series. And the same goes for Daenerys. If we have Vic or Ben as a dragonrider it is not unlikely that they would die before the end, of course, but it is pretty likely that then some important characters from the books rather than recently introduced no-names will claim that dragon.

And if he isn't, then there will be two dragons. And characters can appear and die quite easily. Think ser Patrek. Even if you go for already established named characters, we've got at least nine of those. Eight Sand Snakes and Brienne, who may very well be part of the end game.

 

36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

He did milk that one during the First Dance. But there won't be as many dragons around during the Second Dance.

 

If one or two are available may come to her for that reason. She may even look for them. It doesn't have to a contest. She already tried to sell it to Quentyn instead of a marriage alliance. After all the dragons without riders are useless to her. It is plausible, even obvious plot development.

 

36 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is a possible scenario but did you miss Moqorro's strange remark about the future he has seen for Victarion? That doesn't sound as if Vic is going to get the stuff Moqorro has promised him. Moqorro's purpose here was to thwart Euron's plan and deliver the Iron Fleet and Dragonbinder to Daenerys. Victarion is just a means to that end.

Of course he is using him, to his own end. Practically everybody does that to everyone else. And if he was disposable why bother to convert him. We also don't know what Moqorro's plan is. Delivering the Iron fleet doesn't work. Without Vic the fleet will disperse, half to return home and half to turn pirates. For all we know, all they know of Euron is as a shadow vision in dreams. And let's not forget Dany is not there.

Vic is heading there to do a snatch and grab. Since Dany is not there I think he is going to snatch himself a dragon. I don't know what Moqorro is doing. He is an envoy himself and they are guided by visions. Did they know that Dany wouldn't be there by the time he arrived. Maybe he was just hitching a ride. Maybe they forsaw that Vic would make the difference in the battle. Maybe he is leading him to his death. Maybe they want to unleash him on Meereen so that Dany would move on. Maybe he is cultivating Vic for another purpose. Maybe he wants to stop Vic from getting into a fight with the rest of Dany's followers. Maybe he wants to provoke that fight. Maybe he is playing it by ear.

Apart from a logical strategy, that he comes to declare himself to Dany as her spiritual advisor, Moqorro and the people are motivated by visions. You can't map what they do. Having named her Azor Ahai, theit attitude toward her can range from utter obedience to wantin to make a puppet of her. And anything in between. Which is the most likely.

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'd also like to discuss the whole Larys Strong thing you started recently. I found that interesting.

Apparently, nobody else does.

[The Sleeper]

BTW the only plausible way I can think of a trebuchet taking out a dragon, is if the dragon happens to be next to the trebuchet as it collapses.

It could happen. Dragons are attracted to noise and violence and the fighting is likely to center around the trebuchets. A dragon lands, breathes some fire, which the trebuchet catches, and sticks around to snack on some corpses. The trebuchet, weakened collapses on top of the dragon.

Apparently the trebuchets have been throwing snacks at the dragons, which would make it more likely that the dragons would be attracted to them.

[Lord Varys]

22 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

And if he isn't, then there will be two dragons. And characters can appear and die quite easily. Think ser Patrek. Even if you go for already established named characters, we've got at least nine of those. Eight Sand Snakes and Brienne, who may very well be part of the end game.

Sure, but we do know that the dragon has three heads. So we have a pretty good reason to assume the dragons will end up in the hands of some important main characters. I'm not saying I cannot see some placeholders for one dragon, I'm just not sure that this is going to be part of some dragon-stealing plot.

22 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

If one or two are available may come to her for that reason. She may even look for them. It doesn't have to a contest. She already tried to sell it to Quentyn instead of a marriage alliance. After all the dragons without riders are useless to her. It is plausible, even obvious plot development.

Dany has no control over Viserion and Rhaegal right now considering that she isn't in Meereen. But I think the chances that they are claimed and then leave Slaver's Bay are not that high. I could be wrong, though.

There is also a chance that one of the dragonriders might betray Dany during the Second Dance and join Aegon or Euron or simply go rogue. But that would then be a story that has yet to develop.

I'm would rather like it if more dragons were added to the mix. A dragon egg at Winterfell could hatch (or already have hatched during the burning of Winterfell in ACoK), the Cannibal might awaken from stasis/hibernation on Dragonstone and could be claimed by a rider (if Aegon claimed him he would become more than a formidable opponent for Daenerys), some of Aegon's dragon eggs could hatch (I assume there are some dragon eggs in one of the chests Illyrio gave to the gang in ADwD), or Rhaegal and Viserion could mate and produce a clutch of new dragon eggs that are going to hatch in the future.

Such young dragon would not likely to play that much of a role as weapons of mass destruction but they could be powerful symbols of power and still grow quickly enough to make their riders more mobile.

22 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Of course he is using him, to his own end. Practically everybody does that to everyone else. And if he was disposable why bother to convert him. We also don't know what Moqorro's plan is. Delivering the Iron fleet doesn't work. Without Vic the fleet will disperse, half to return home and half to turn pirates. For all we know, all they know of Euron is as a shadow vision in dreams. And let's not forget Dany is not there.

Moqorro has very, very precise visions of the future. He must know a lot. I mean, he can find ships at sea with the vision showing him only water and sky. He also correctly foresaw that Victarion's men would find him if a storm at would cast him and his people into the sea at a precise moment. He is the most precise seer we have seen in this series as of yet.

What we can guess of Moqorro's plan is that he and Benerro want Daenerys to come to Volantis. And they consider Euron a threat to her. As of yet Euron is only a threat to her through Victarion and Dragonbinder, a threat Moqorro effectively neutralized by joining Victarion's fleet.

It is quite likely that all Moqorro wants from Victarion is to help defeat the Yunkish allies during the battle that is taking place right now and to ensure that Dragonbinder is not used against Daenerys. He is very likely to succeed at both.

And once the Ironborn have landed and joined Dany's allies they are not likely going to be allowed to leave, don't you think? Never mind what happens to Victarion.

22 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Vic is heading there to do a snatch and grab. Since Dany is not there I think he is going to snatch himself a dragon.

No, he made it very clear that he, too, is there for the dragon queen. She is supposed to be his wife just as Euron wants both Daenerys and the dragons. The dragons aren't worth all that much without Daenerys. They could become powerful weapons in another decade or so but right now they are little more than playthings. But Daenerys Targaryen has a legal claim to the Iron Throne.

Also keep in mind that Victarion has promised to sail to the Dothraki Sea to find his dragon queen. He'll keep that promise and you best don't contradict him there ;-).

22 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

I don't know what Moqorro is doing. He is an envoy himself and they are guided by visions. Did they know that Dany wouldn't be there by the time he arrived. Maybe he was just hitching a ride. Maybe they forsaw that Vic would make the difference in the battle. Maybe he is leading him to his death. Maybe they want to unleash him on Meereen so that Dany would move on. Maybe he is cultivating Vic for another purpose. Maybe he wants to stop Vic from getting into a fight with the rest of Dany's followers. Maybe he wants to provoke that fight. Maybe he is playing it by ear.

We can make some guesses. Another important point likely is that Moqorro wanted to be at Slaver's Bay before the Volantene armada arrives there. Most of the tiger soldiers are following R'hllor and Benerro making it rather likely that Moqorro went before them to ensure that the tiger soldiers will not fight Dany when they finally arrive.

22 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Apart from a logical strategy, that he comes to declare himself to Dany as her spiritual advisor, Moqorro and the people are motivated by visions. You can't map what they do. Having named her Azor Ahai, theit attitude toward her can range from utter obedience to wantin to make a puppet of her. And anything in between. Which is the most likely.

Their ultimate purpose for Daenerys is unknown, yes. But we can be reasonably certain that they want her to come to Volantis. That's why the widow of the waterfront helped both Jorah/Tyrion and Moqorro. And she most certainly wants that Dany helps her and other like-minded people to free the slaves of Volantis.

But religious movements are difficult to control. If the tiger soldiers and other freed slaves and Dothraki end up worshiping Dany as their god-queen/Azor Ahai she will be able to do with them whatever the hell she wants. And that's then most likely going to result in them going to Westeros to fight the Others there.

Eventually the true enemy has to show its ugly face in prophetic dreams and visions, too. It is already difficult to believe that nobody sees the Others in dreams or visions.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Who do you think of when you read about Mushroom and his accounts from the Dance of the Dragons, eh? I think of Tyrion. Well, check this out...

Quote

Prince Jacaerys announced (with the prompting of Mushroom, if his Testimony is to be believed) that any man or woman who could ride one of these dragons would be ennobled.

The Targaryen Kings, TWOIAF

So, it was the dwarf that put forward the notion of taming a dragon.