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Why did the Stormlands lose all their military strength after BW?


JWittoBeast

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Just now, JWittoBeast said:

Why would Stannis automatically lose if he went to the Stormlands?

The Stormlands can raise maybe 20-30k. Let's say 20k, since the other 10k are from the losses from Blackwater and distrust among Stannis.

That would mean the 100k army would outnumber Stannis 5-1, but Stannis has won battles where he was outnumbered 5-1 before, especially when his army is better trained than his opponents, as is Stormlands is known for having higher quality troops.

How many of these battles with those odds can you name?

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1 minute ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

They mostly sided with Aerys over Robert in the Rebellion. There would be quite a few Houses with Targ blood in the Stormlands (Tarth, Penrose, possibly Dondarrion), while they would have had more involvement with the Targaryens due to their summer residence at Summerhall or their use of the Kingswood.

 

I don't actually think the Stormlands is that powerful. They lost some of their lands when Aegon formed Westeros. Some of the Marcher Lords would be focused on defending their own lands, while the 7 or so thousand that left will be a mixture of dead, with Stannis or still in the Crownlands. There is probably not many actual soldiers remaining amongst the Houses who fought at the Blackwater and those seem to be the Houses that have been picked off by the Golden Company

 

 

What are you talking about? Most of the Stormlords went with Robert, and he smashed the remaining loyalists at Summerhall.

They didn't really lose any lands when Aegon formed Westeros, they lost lands right before Aegon landed. They lost the Riverlands to the Ironborn, and they at one point controlled the Crownlands, but lost it somehow.

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1 minute ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

How many of these battles with those odds can you name?

 

The battle of the Wall....

That wasn't even 5-1, that was like 30k Wildling warriors to less than 2k Stannis soldiers, which put the odds at 20-1.

He was also outnumbered when he destroyed the Ironborn fleet off Fair Isle.

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8 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

They mostly sided with Aerys over Robert in the Rebellion. There would be quite a few Houses with Targ blood in the Stormlands (Tarth, Penrose, possibly Dondarrion), while they would have had more involvement with the Targaryens due to their summer residence at Summerhall or their use of the Kingswood.

 

I don't actually think the Stormlands is that powerful. They lost some of their lands when Aegon formed Westeros. Some of the Marcher Lords would be focused on defending their own lands, while the 7 or so thousand that left will be a mixture of dead, with Stannis or still in the Crownlands. There is probably not many actual soldiers remaining amongst the Houses who fought at the Blackwater and those seem to be the Houses that have been picked off by the Golden Company

Not according to Tywin. 

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13 minutes ago, JWittoBeast said:

What are you talking about? Most of the Stormlords went with Robert, and he smashed the remaining loyalists at Summerhall.

Many of the Stormlords originally sided with the Crown over Robert. He was able to turn some into allies and win them over, but the fact that he had to do that in first place shows that Targ support is likely stronger in the Stormlands than say somewhere like the North or Iron Islands.

Quote

They didn't really lose any lands when Aegon formed Westeros, they lost lands right before Aegon landed. They lost the Riverlands to the Ironborn, and they at one point controlled the Crownlands, but lost it somehow.

They lost lands. The Kingswood was once part of the Stormlands as was the peninsula with Houses like Massey and Bar Emmon.

10 minutes ago, JWittoBeast said:

 

He was also outnumbered when he destroyed the Ironborn fleet off Fair Isle.

Where is it stated that he was outnumbered against the Ironborn? He had both the Royal fleet and the Redwyne and Hightower ships. If anyone had the numbers advantage it would have been the Crown in that battle.

9 minutes ago, Señor de la Tormenta said:

the wall

 

we can do this, again and again.

 

Can we? He mentioned multiple examples.

7 minutes ago, Señor de la Tormenta said:

Not according to Tywin. 

Not what?

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11 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

They mostly sided with Aerys over Robert in the Rebellion. There would be quite a few Houses with Targ blood in the Stormlands (Tarth, Penrose, possibly Dondarrion), while they would have had more involvement with the Targaryens due to their summer residence at Summerhall or their use of the Kingswood.

 

I don't actually think the Stormlands is that powerful. They lost some of their lands when Aegon formed Westeros. Some of the Marcher Lords would be focused on defending their own lands, while the 7 or so thousand that left will be a mixture of dead, with Stannis or still in the Crownlands. There is probably not many actual soldiers remaining amongst the Houses who fought at the Blackwater and those seem to be the Houses that have been picked off by the Golden Company

There were 3 rebel lords, and Connington would have probably made a 4th had he been home to lead his men. And the Stormlands had to have lands taken from them exactly because they were a strong kingdom. The Stormlands took over the entire area of the modern Crownlands minus Dragonstone and the Riverlands all the way to the Neck. 

If the Reach was even twice the Stormlands' host, it would make the initial call-up ~30,000 men (a third out of Renly's 90,000 men). If it was even less than that, and the Reach had 70,000 troops to Renly's initial host and the Stormlands were "only" 20,000 men, that would still be out of a partial call-up with some lords staying behind or only sending a token force and keeping thier options open considering this was a Baratheon civil war still. Thier losses on the Blackwater were a couple thousand tops, and even if another couple thousands went with Tarly, there should still be upwards of 15,000 men at the absolute minimum right there.

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2 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

There were 3 rebel lords, and Connington would have probably made a 4th had he been home to lead his men.

So that is four Lords we know who initially supported the Crown over Robert and none that supported that Robert. It is also possible that Endrew Tarth is at the wall because of the Rebellion.

Now obviously other Houses were involved, and I probably mispoke about the Crown having the majority but it seems clear that there was a significant split.

2 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

And the Stormlands had to have lands taken from them exactly because they were a strong kingdom. The Stormlands took over the entire area of the modern Crownlands minus Dragonstone and the Riverlands all the way to the Neck. 

I'm not sure that is true. They were unlucky enough to be close to the Targaryens and as a consequence lost some of their lands, I don't think it was down to how strong the Stormlands (now ruled by Aegon's best friend and Hand) was.

The World book points out that they are one of the least densly populated regions in Westeros.

Yet even at their greatest extent, the realms of the Durrandons and their successors have always been thinly peopled when compared to the Reach, the riverlands, and the west, and thus the might of the lords of Storm's End was diminished.

10 minutes ago, Señor de la Tormenta said:

my quote is in the first page

 

tywin kind of thinks Stannis can muster an army in the Storm Lands. So, theres might there. Not enough, of course, because at that point the lannister/tyrell coalition is unbeatable. 

At no point in my post that I quoted did I say there was zero troops in the Stormlands so I'm a little confused to what your initial reply meant.

22 minutes ago, Señor de la Tormenta said:

Not according to Tywin. 

Not what according to Tywin?

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25 minutes ago, Señor de la Tormenta said:

I don't actually think the Stormlands is that powerful. They lost some of their lands when Aegon formed Westeros. Some of the Marcher Lords would be focused on defending their own lands, while the 7 or so thousand that left will be a mixture of dead, with Stannis or still in the Crownlands. There is probably not many actual soldiers remaining amongst the Houses who fought at the Blackwater and those seem to be the Houses that have been picked off by the Golden Company

mostly this.

 

to few for tywin to think is a viable path for stannis to try to muster an army there.

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5 minutes ago, Señor de la Tormenta said:

mostly this.

 

to few for tywin to think is a viable path for stannis to try to muster an army there.

I'm not sure how any of what I said implies that he could not raise an army there?

Of course he could. The Riverlands, which has been hit far harder than any other region, could still muster an army so the Stormlands certainly could. Every region can, that does not change the fact that of the realms in Westeros the Stormlands are a middling to weak one in their strength .

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24 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

1. So that is four Lords we know who initially supported the Crown over Robert and none that supported that Robert. It is also possible that Endrew Tarth is at the wall because of the Rebellion.

Now obviously other Houses were involved, and I probably mispoke about the Crown having the majority but it seems clear that there was a significant split.

2. I'm not sure that is true. They were unlucky enough to be close to the Targaryens and as a consequence lost some of their lands, I don't think it was down to how strong the Stormlands (now ruled by Aegon's best friend and Hand) was.

The World book points out that they are one of the least densly populated regions in Westeros.

Yet even at their greatest extent, the realms of the Durrandons and their successors have always been thinly peopled when compared to the Reach, the riverlands, and the west, and thus the might of the lords of Storm's End was diminished.

1. Not mentioning other houses... because they were with Robert and only the rebels are mentioned? Tarth is also streching it. We have nothing saying that Selwyn was not the lord. Brienne was born when he was already lord, and she is older than the rebellion.

2. In the generation before the War of Conquest Argilac turned back a Dornish invasion, led a coalition to win a war in the Disputed Lands, and killed Garse VII Gardener, King of the Reach, in the Battle of Summerfield. The Stormlands seem to have been quite strong. The fact that they were thinly populated if compared to the Reach and the Riverlands and the Westerlands does not change this fact, it just means that the Stormlands were strong despite this limited population when compared to the more populated regions. They are certainly more populated than Dorne (the least populated) or the Iron Islands (not much more than Dorne), and should be about the same scale as the Vale (this post Conquest).

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Well, I can't say I have honestly put to much thought into it, but I always just saw it as a kind of blitzkrieg.  The golden company is a highly professional organization, they are coming in when least expected, securing a castle, leaving a small force behind to hold it and moving on, almost before the word-of-mouth can seem real.  They also don't seem to be bothering with securing wide swaths of land, just cutting a line through to Storm's End.  The geographic distances between where they first land and SE don't seem like too much, and

Spoiler

in the Arianne chapter from WoW everyone (including her) seems surprised at their speed and the fact they have already secured SE.

It may be a little plot help, but it seems like exactly the type of thing the GC is capable of.  Has anyone been able to determine how much actual time passes between the beginning of the invasion and that WoW chapter?

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10 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

2. In the generation before the War of Conquest Argilac turned back a Dornish invasion, led a coalition to win a war in the Disputed Lands, and killed Garse VII Gardener, King of the Reach, in the Battle of Summerfield. The Stormlands seem to have been quite strong.

While that is all true they were still in a state of decline.

From their great citadel Storm's End, the Storm Kings of House Durrandon had once ruled the eastern half of Westeros from Cape Wrath to the Bay of Crabs, but their powers had been dwindling for centuries. The Kings of the Reach had nibbled at their domains from the west, the Dornishmen harassed them from the south, and Harren the Black and his ironmen had pushed them from the Trident and the lands north of the Blackwater Rush. King Argilac, last of the Durrandon, had arrested this decline for a time

And of course after the Conquest they would have grown even weaker as they lost part of the Stormlands to the new realm of the Crownlands.

Like I originally said

Quote

I don't actually think the Stormlands is that powerful.

Which seems to be true. No navy, no city and as GRRM mentions when talking about the strength of the regions "The stormlands have lots of trees and rocks and rain."

They may well be a little stronger than Dorne and the Iron Islands, but they are far closer to them in terms of might than they are to the Reach or even Westerlands.

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We know that Dorne is the least populous mainland kingdom. And we have every reason to believe that the Iron Isles is the least populated kingdom overall (not being one of the Seven Kingdoms that Doran referred to, if we take the Seven Kingdoms to be represented by the Seven Sigils on Joffrey's cup, which excluded the Kraken).

Of the remaining southron kingdoms, we know the Stormlands is apparently the least densely populated. We also know that it is one the the smallest from a geographical perspective, probably tied with the Westerlands for being the smallest in territorial size. Hence, if you couple low density with small area, you get small overall population.

So in my view, there is strong evidence that the order of population size of the Seven Kingdoms + the Iron Isles, from small to large, goes: Iron Isles, Dorne, Stormlands, and then the other kingdoms above them.

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40 minutes ago, Khal BlackfyreO said:

It may be a little plot help, but it seems like exactly the type of thing the GC is capable of.  Has anyone been able to determine how much actual time passes between the beginning of the invasion and that WoW chapter?

It's alot of plot help. It does not matter how long it took, Arianne takes ship from Dorne. Literally any lord in the Stormlands would have managed to call his men in this time (just the ones who recently returned, or most of them at least) and arrive to contact with the GC by the time she arrived. 

18 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 

While that is all true they were still in a state of decline.

From their great citadel Storm's End, the Storm Kings of House Durrandon had once ruled the eastern half of Westeros from Cape Wrath to the Bay of Crabs, but their powers had been dwindling for centuries. The Kings of the Reach had nibbled at their domains from the west, the Dornishmen harassed them from the south, and Harren the Black and his ironmen had pushed them from the Trident and the lands north of the Blackwater Rush. King Argilac, last of the Durrandon, had arrested this decline for a time

And of course after the Conquest they would have grown even weaker as they lost part of the Stormlands to the new realm of the Crownlands.

Like I originally said

Which seems to be true. No navy, no city and as GRRM mentions when talking about the strength of the regions "The stormlands have lots of trees and rocks and rain."

They may well be a little stronger than Dorne and the Iron Islands, but they are far closer to them in terms of might than they are to the Reach or even Westerlands.

Thier "decline" was losing the Riverlands from the state of clear military dominance back to the traditional borders. The Dornish and the Reach "nibling" were turned back in the last generation, so let's take "decline" with a pinch of salt here. Decline from a position of power that allows the Stormlands to exapand and include the Riverlands is not the same as decline from the traditional Stormlands' borders. The Stormlands are not as populated as the most populated regions - no shit, that's how logic works. That still does not make them weak. 

 

EDIT: 

IIRC there is a SSM or something where the Stormlands are compared to medieval Germany, during the occupation of the Riverlands they were militarily strong but had borders to everyone and thus enemies all around. Anyone remember?

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The stormlands are known for their martial culture to the bone, especially the marcher lords who never stopped fighting and are "born with a sword in hand" (world book) but not for their numbers...

And their loyalty is fierce to the IT historically, even in aerys ii time, when robert had to fight half his countrymen...

But, in these times they don't even know where to turn their heads, so despite being an extremely martial land, it's order of loyalty is crap since Bob died, so... Lots of wars, lots of dead stormlanders

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11 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

It's alot of plot help. It does not matter how long it took, Arianne takes ship from Dorne. Literally any lord in the Stormlands would have managed to call his men in this time (just the ones who recently returned, or most of them at least) and arrive to contact with the GC by the time she arrived. 

Thier "decline" was losing the Riverlands from the state of clear military dominance back to the traditional borders. The Dornish and the Reach "nibling" were turned back in the last generation, so let's take "decline" with a pinch of salt here. Decline from a position of power that allows the Stormlands to exapand and include the Riverlands is not the same as decline from the traditional Stormlands' borders. The Stormlands are not as populated as the most populated regions - no shit, that's how logic works. That still does not make them weak. 

I agree. They are not weak. They are stronger than Dorne and the Iron Isles. You know, as we get more and more information, the old numbers from the RPG, which were confirmed by Martin as being "roughly what people in Westeros believe each of the regions can raise", are remaining surprisingly consistent with the picture that emerges.

For the record, those numbers had Dorne "believed" to be at 50k by the people of Westeros (a false belief that Doran has since revealed was deliberately fostered by the Dornish). It had the Iron Isles at about 20k men, and the Stormlands at around 30k soldiers.

If you assume that the Stormlands before losing the extra bits of their traditional lands - such as the Kingswood and the parts of the Reach that were lost to the Gardeners - had say 35k men, then a strength of around 30k today would make sense. Especially if the Westerlands - with a roughly similar size but greater population density - can raise around 45k-50k.

So I still find those RPG numbers very convincing, and at least in my own mind, order the kingdoms accordingly.

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2 minutes ago, Nyrhex said:

It's alot of plot help. It does not matter how long it took, Arianne takes ship from Dorne. Literally any lord in the Stormlands would have managed to call his men in this time (just the ones who recently returned, or most of them at least) and arrive to contact with the GC by the time she arrived. 

Thier "decline" was losing the Riverlands from the state of clear military dominance back to the traditional borders. The Dornish and the Reach "nibling" were turned back in the last generation, so let's take "decline" with a pinch of salt here. Decline from a position of power that allows the Stormlands to exapand and include the Riverlands is not the same as decline from the traditional Stormlands' borders. The Stormlands are not as populated as the most populated regions - no shit, that's how logic works. That still does not make them weak. 

They were in decline back then. That is just canon. Since then they have lost lands to the Crownlands so logically they were further weakened after the conquest. And currently some of their lands are easily being taken over by the Golden Company. Seems GRRM is being perfectly consistent with their levels.

They are not powerful (and I am talking as a realm, not just military). They fall behind the Reach, Westerlands, Riverlands and I'd guess both the North and the Vale as well. Elio's estimation of 25k seems to be fair considering what we have seen in the books and the lack of a city, a navy and the violent waters that surround it probably have an adverse effect on trade. And it is largely woodlands.

In comparison to the realms of Westeros they are middling to weak. That does not stop them producing some exceptional warriors, notably amongst the Marcher Lords.

 

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