1000th Lord Commander

King Jon's next move.

31 posts in this topic

On 29 September 2016 at 11:24 PM, Slaysman said:

Ok Mandzipop, gonna have to disagree with you. In the show Cersei does not want Jon Snow dead, he isn't even on her radar. As for Sansa Cersei definitely wants her dead.

Cersei will most likely make a stupid decision like sending the Lannister army north once she learns Jon has been declared King in the North. After what happened to Robb I doubt the northern lords are going to let their new liege go anywhere without some constantly armed protection or RSVP to any weddings in the near future.

Isn't the Lannister Army with Jamie? Or just a small force? On that note how many men do we figure the Lannister army is composed at this point? They lost quite a few men in the war of the 5 kings.

Let's be generous and say 40k? Starks + The Vale can raise some 25 to 30k on their own as well. I don't think she will risk marching on them at this point, considering they don't grossly outnumber them.

If Euron helps her, that might be another matter, he can probably add some 15 to 20k men as well. But all in all its not gonna happen, cause Dany is coming and she will surely learn of her army in time.

It would be a lol moment if Dany arrives in kings landing with a big ass army, ready for war and nobody is there to defend the city.

As for Jon's next move, he will probably do the following:

- Send a raven + somebody to the wall ( better to double check ) to inform them that he has won the North. Order them to send sentinels to keep an eye out for the white walker army.

- Tell his lords to gather their armies, prepare food for the war that's about to come.

- Have them all ready to march on the wall as soon as word comes that WW army is fast approaching.

- Send a raven south to ask for help ( he won't risk going alone, or with an army down south because he needs to be ready to march on the wall )

- Send somebody trusted south in his name, i have no idea who that might be. 

Edited by Nocturne

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Dany will recapture Dragonstone and use it as her base of operations since that is her ancestral home and lies within blackwater bay. And Jon will join her in dragonstone to forge an alliance with the north. Jon will probably seek this alliance once he learns Dany is his aunt from Bran the younger who saw his birth at the tower of Joy. 

Dany will lead an attack on Kings landing similar to Stannis but Cersai will have KL destroyed by wildfire. 

Furthermore an alliance between Cersai and Euron will allow an attack on Dragonstone with Eurons 1000 ship Navy with forces from the lannisters, the iron isles and maybe other allies. 

 

This will allow Dany to eventiually go North and beyond the wall as shown in her vision in the house of the undying.

Edited by cylonhybrid

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Jon has to take Dragonstone in order to gain the resources to arm against the WW. This could lead to a major conflict with Dany unless Tyrion gets them on the same side, which probably means he'll be elsewhere when Dany hears. Tragic Battle for Dragonstone, anyone?

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On ‎10‎/‎24‎/‎2016 at 2:04 PM, cylonhybrid said:

Dany will recapture Dragonstone and use it as her base of operations since that is her ancestral home and lies within blackwater bay. And Jon will join her in dragonstone to forge an alliance with the north. Jon will probably seek this alliance once he learns Dany is his aunt from Bran the younger who saw his birth at the tower of Joy. 

Dany will lead an attack on Kings landing similar to Stannis but Cersai will have KL destroyed by wildfire. 

Furthermore an alliance between Cersai and Euron will allow an attack on Dragonstone with Eurons 1000 ship Navy with forces from the lannisters, the iron isles and maybe other allies. 

 

This will allow Dany to eventiually go North and beyond the wall as shown in her vision in the house of the undying.

Why would Dany want to choose a base of operations that required the use of ships for invasions, that is her most vulnerable state.  Horse's and Dothraki don't fight particularly well when they are swimming.

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2 hours ago, Ice Spider said:

Why would Dany want to choose a base of operations that required the use of ships for invasions, that is her most vulnerable state.  Horse's and Dothraki don't fight particularly well when they are swimming.

Because it is the Targaryen ancestral home . The sea provides protection against armies and it is close to Kings landing. Thats why. Also She doesn't have to bring her entire army to dragonstone.Probably a few unsullied to guard dragonstone.

Edited by cylonhybrid

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6 hours ago, cylonhybrid said:

Because it is the Targaryen ancestral home . The sea provides protection against armies and it is close to Kings landing. Thats why. Also She doesn't have to bring her entire army to dragonstone.Probably a few unsullied to guard dragonstone.

Didn't her father call KL home when sitting on the throne?  Maybe she visits, but I am not quite sure that will not be "her base of Operations" for the war.

Edited by Ice Spider

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13 hours ago, Ice Spider said:

Didn't her father call KL home when sitting on the throne?  Maybe she visits, but I am not quite sure that will not be "her base of Operations" for the war.

Yes I don't know for sure if it will be her final base, but she will definitely capture dragonstone without doubt. And perhaps Euron will be there to attack, I don't know. And Jon will definitely meet her there without doubt. So it must be some base of operations.

Edited by cylonhybrid

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On 10/26/2016 at 6:08 PM, cylonhybrid said:

Because it is the Targaryen ancestral home . The sea provides protection against armies and it is close to Kings landing. Thats why. Also She doesn't have to bring her entire army to dragonstone.Probably a few unsullied to guard dragonstone.

Dragonstone also allows a blockade of sort to be established to cut off Kings Landing from sea access.

Either close in or distant.  KL would not be able to get supplies, troops (mercenaries) nor $$ from the Free Cities.

Nor elsewhere.

 

 

EDIT : politically, dragonstone would be a symbolic kind of of capture.  In a feudal /medieval type setting, this can be very important.  It would declare and demonstrate that the Targaryens have returned.  Once established in Dragonstone, Dany could issue a summons to the Targaryen 'bannermen' as their Liege.  Since she also claims the Crown, she could issue similar to the Great Houses and/or Lords Paramount.  She could potentially gain more supporters.  At the very least, such summonses could cause confusion and delay as the houses decide whom to support.

Spoiler

In S7, rumors suggest that this may be what Dany does.  Issues some kind of Great Summons from Dragonstone.

 

Edited by Thror Baratheon

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I read a lot of opinions stating that Jon should send letters south, telling about the impending danger. But that is something he has already done in S2, and the response was basically laughter and in the end, Stannis being persuaded by Davos that the danger is in the North.
Sending new letters south, will not result in any different reactions. The only thing that will mobilise the south in the war against the WW's will be some compelling evidence that the dead are being resurrected by the WW's. So basically: Capture a wight, take it south and show the rulers the threat.

I can really see no other way in which Jon could clarify the impending danger that awaits the 7K's.

Edited by Ser Walter of AShwood

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On 10/3/2016 at 10:24 AM, Nocturne said:

Isn't the Lannister Army with Jamie? Or just a small force? On that note how many men do we figure the Lannister army is composed at this point? They lost quite a few men in the war of the 5 kings.

Let's be generous an

With and end to the war/fight in the Riverlands, the Lannister army likely disbanded.  Any summoned bannermen probably returned to their own lands.  Any mercenaries or professionals paid off and sent on their way to find other employment.  Only the Lannister 'household troops' and retainers and a small number of others (such as Bronn) would remain.

 

EDIT on 04 Dec :

Also ... When Jamie was on the way back to KL, Tommen and the High Sparrow were still alive.  The HS did not seem to be a total fool when it came to The Game.  He would likely have had Tommen order any still-mobilized troops to stay in either the Westerlands (ie, home) or the Riverlands (for 'garrison duty').  In other words, far away from KL.

Hmm... hadn't thought about garrison duty.  Would there be a need for a direct Lannister presence in the Riverlands to keep order?  Probably not; the Freys and the Crown would be expected to shoulder that burden.

Edited by Thror Baratheon

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21 hours ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

I read a lot of opinions stating that Jon should send letters south, telling about the impending danger. But that is something he has already done in S2, and the response was basically laughter and in the end, Stannis being persuaded by Davos that the danger is in the North.
Sending new letters south, will not result in any different reactions. The only thing that will mobilise the south in the war against the WW's will be some compelling evidence that the dead are being resurrected by the WW's. So basically: Capture a wight, take it south and show the rulers the threat.

I can really see no other way in which Jon could clarify the impending danger that awaits the 7K's.

Yup.  Better still, but not likely to happen, would be to capture a WW also.

 

Spoiler

This appears to be what Jon actually does or attempts to do.  Ending (I expect) with the major players in the Dragonpit in KL to witness the wight.

 

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