US elections - may the polls be ever in your favor

[DanteGabriel]

2 minutes ago, Castel said:

He was trying to dog-whistle while pretending that he was actually focused on the substantive critique of the withdrawal. It's not the first time he's hedged like this.

We'll get at least one of these a week for the rest of the election.

[The Marquis de Leech]

5 hours ago, Fez said:

So I've tried not to be as obsessed about individual state polls as I was in 2012 and take a more holistic view of things (though I've had fun looking at those red state polls). But sometimes a battleground poll comes out that just makes my draw drop.

NBC dropped their latest polls of Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia today. They're all really good numbers for Clinton, both in head-to-heads and as four candidate questions; but its the Colorado four candidate one that I'm looking at.

Its Clinton 41, Trump 29, Johnson 15, Stein 6. That is a high number of undecideds and third-party support, true, but seeing a major party nominee at sub-30% at this stage of the race is just astonishing.

The other astonishing one is North Carolina. Clinton +9 is closing in on what Jimmy Carter managed there in 1976 (+11%).

With these sorts of third party numbers and undecideds, I'd like to see a poll out of Alaska.

[Swordfish]

3 hours ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

THAT'S NOT A RUG!

http://www.grindtv.com/wildlife/donald-trumps-hair-discovered-crawling-in-amazon/#3qxdFXrvJEVDdRmy.97

 

I'd vote for that caterpillar, for sure.

it's like a real life tribble.

[sologdin]

someone needs to run wigasus in the election, like the old SDS pigasus from 1968.

[Ormond]

Much scarier in terms of its potential impact for violence in November than his ISIS remarks is his doubling down on the idea that if he loses the election it will be because Clinton and the Democrats cheated, which he did today in regard to Pennsylvania. It is really difficult for me to see how there won't be a least some violent reaction from a few of his followers on November 9 if he keeps this up, and I am afraid he is very likely to actually get even worse about this as the campaign goes on.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/donald-trump-says-hell-only-lose-pennsylvania-where-hes-down-9-points-is-if-cheating-goes-on/

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/12/politics/donald-trump-pennsylvania-cheating/

[Ormond]

1 hour ago, Triskan said:

solo - I actually do not ever recall having read the word "biopolitical" before though it astounds me to reflect on this. 

 

The polls right now are hard not to salivate over.  The possibility of a map similar to Obama's victory over McCain seems very real (e.g., winning North Carolina), but are states like Utah, Georgia, and South Carolina really in play? 

ETA:  Also - if there were to be a Johnson over Goldwater type of landslide (and I am not arguing for complacency or overconfidence from the Dems here) which states would be the states of ultimate shame that Trump still carried?  Idaho, Wyoming, and Mississippi?

Actually the polling shows Trump being more likely to loose Mississippi than he is to lose West Virginia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, or Alabama. As of tonight the maps at both the Princeton Election Consortium and FiveThirtyEight show Mississippi in a lighter shade of red than several other states. 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

http://election.princeton.edu/electoral-college-map/

[The Marquis de Leech]

2 hours ago, Triskan said:

ETA:  Also - if there were to be a Johnson over Goldwater type of landslide (and I am not arguing for complacency or overconfidence from the Dems here) which states would be the states of ultimate shame that Trump still carried?  Idaho, Wyoming, and Mississippi?

West Virginia.

(To think that a state that voted for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988 has wound up like this...).

The others would be the likes of Oklahoma and Tennessee. And NE-3, which might well be the single most Republican electoral vote in the US. Oh, and probably Arkansas (the irony being that Hillary would likely have won it in 2008).

Idaho might be a bit screwy due to the Mormon factor, and I see Johnson doing very well both there and in Wyoming.

[ThinkerX]

Worth pointing out, though, that much of this anticipated Clinton landslide stems not from her popularity but from dislike of Trump. 

 

That said, I have noted something a shade odd on my Facebook feed.  Every now and again, I see a political picture or add, usually republican.  Sometimes the name of the person running seems familiar, sometimes not.  For whatever reason, at least some are from out of state.   Much of these adds consists of standard republican 'talking points' big on promoting growth and security and bashing Clinton.  Yet the comments tend towards the negative side.  More, many of those comments stem from republicans, or people who claim to be republicans.  Some identify with Trump.  Others just seem ticked off. 

 

Anybody else notice this?

 

If this is part of a general trend, then the republican party might be on the verge of utter catastrophe.

[Red Hermit]

The GOP has become so splintered I have a hard time seeing how they could pass much legislation even if they win the presidency.  The only thing uniting them is dislike of Obama and Hillary.  Listening to the different factions of the GOP there really doesn't seem to be any broad consensus about what to about foreign policy, immigration, healthcare, or entitlements.  Most likely they will pass large tax cuts without serious spending cuts under the logic that tax cuts will be self funding, then the hardliners in the House will demand massive spending cuts to fix the resulting deficit increase that most Republicans just won't be willing to accept.  I don't see how they do much governing after that.

The GOP base has been given such wildly unrealistic expectations it will be impossible for their representatives to not make them feel betrayed.

[laurainesnelling]

Hillary Clinton is leading in major cities like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado in August . She will win

[DireWolfSpirit]

 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

34 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

 

Wrong.

/I believe this video was shot in the major city of California. 

[sologdin]

are y'all saying that trump snogged a marride man?

[drawkcabi]

4 hours ago, Ormond said:

Much scarier in terms of its potential impact for violence in November than his ISIS remarks is his doubling down on the idea that if he loses the election it will be because Clinton and the Democrats cheated, which he did today in regard to Pennsylvania. It is really difficult for me to see how there won't be a least some violent reaction from a few of his followers on November 9 if he keeps this up, and I am afraid he is very likely to actually get even worse about this as the campaign goes on.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/12/donald-trump-says-hell-only-lose-pennsylvania-where-hes-down-9-points-is-if-cheating-goes-on/

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/12/politics/donald-trump-pennsylvania-cheating/

I think election night might be really ugly. I just can't see Trump conceding with grace in any shape or form. I can see him inciting his supporters to riot.

[Fez]

7 hours ago, Triskan said:

ETA:  Also - if there were to be a Johnson over Goldwater type of landslide (and I am not arguing for complacency or overconfidence from the Dems here) which states would be the states of ultimate shame that Trump still carried?  Idaho, Wyoming, and Mississippi?

Mississippi would flip fairly easily if the landslide were large enough. Clinton only needs something like 15% (maybe 20%) of the white vote to win Mississippi, which under normal circumstances is nearly impossible for a Democrat in that state. But is pretty easy to see happen in a double-digit landslide (her raw vote total doesn't increase much, but enough Trump supporters stay home).

The states Clinton isn't winning even if Trump dropped out and the GOP didn't replace him, 'cause they'd vote for Johnson to so Clinton wouldn't win, is fairly short: Idaho, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Probably anything else is on the table, all it would need to be an exceptionally large landslide to get to that point.

[LongRider]

5 hours ago, drawkcabi said:

I think election night might be really ugly. I just can't see Trump conceding with grace in any shape or form. I can see him inciting his supporters to riot.

You might be right.  

Donald Trump's campaign is seeking to recruit "election observers" following the Republican nominee's repeated claims that the general election is "rigged."  In a move that's unprecedented in a presidential election, the campaign late this week launched a page on its website proclaiming, "Help Me Stop Crooked Hillary From Rigging This Election! Please fill out this form to receive more information about becoming a volunteer Trump Election Observer."  

I experienced Repub recruited observers in 2008.  They had no official capacity, as they weren't part of the election commission.  I was with several others who had met at a polling place after canvassing on election day.  One came and stared at us as we were standing in a place designated by the poll officials and it was also seen that the observers were writing down some of our license plate numbers.

So, creepy, but not really harmful.  However, Trump already has a bit of following This is hardly the first time bikers have mobilized in Trump’s favor. In recent months, reporters have noted the presence of muscle-bound, leather-clad bikers at Trump rallies across the country.    And yeah, I would assume where it's legal, they'll be carrying weapons. 

 

[maarsen]

Just as an aside, I did check out the above article, and what do I see but Putin showing off his Russian manliness sitting astride a ...Harley? If symbolism matters, all symbols matter.

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

A couple things:

Trump preemptively calling the election rigged could make it even harder for him to win, since it might discourage some of his supporters from going to the polls.

One stat I thought was funny was that Trump is polling much better than Romney was with Evangelicals who don't go to church.

[LongRider]

35 minutes ago, maarsen said:

Just as an aside, I did check out the above article, and what do I see but Putin showing off his Russian manliness sitting astride a ...Harley? If symbolism matters, all symbols matter.

See!  Putin is a good guy!  He rides a Harley!  Bigley! Believe me, this is yuggggeeeee!

 

[DanteGabriel]

1 hour ago, LongRider said:

You might be right.  

Donald Trump's campaign is seeking to recruit "election observers" following the Republican nominee's repeated claims that the general election is "rigged."  In a move that's unprecedented in a presidential election, the campaign late this week launched a page on its website proclaiming, "Help Me Stop Crooked Hillary From Rigging This Election! Please fill out this form to receive more information about becoming a volunteer Trump Election Observer."  

I experienced Repub recruited observers in 2008.  They had no official capacity, as they weren't part of the election commission.  I was with several others who had met at a polling place after canvassing on election day.  One came and stared at us as we were standing in a place designated by the poll officials and it was also seen that the observers were writing down some of our license plate numbers.

So, creepy, but not really harmful.  However, Trump already has a bit of following This is hardly the first time bikers have mobilized in Trump’s favor. In recent months, reporters have noted the presence of muscle-bound, leather-clad bikers at Trump rallies across the country.    And yeah, I would assume where it's legal, they'll be carrying weapons. 

 

Armed white nationalists who are primed to expect voter fraud at the polls: what could go wrong?