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Balon's plan was truly stupid without Theon


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5 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Sure, but from we had seen they were not and in that respect the actual books show that Balon's plan had merit.

A bunch of, mostly, poorly trained and poorly armed men. Stannis and the Mountain clans outnumber the fleeing Ironborn with Asha at least 20-1 yet look how many of he Clan members were killed in that fight.

And again, Balon is correct as they gave no help to Winterfell or the Wall when they were attacked, only when Stannis and his professional army arrived.

There is a real difference between being a properly armed and trained soldier and being a male old enough and willing to fight. Balon recognizes this distinction.

Who again seem pretty ineffective. Alys Karstark points out how depleted they are, there is no reason to think their reserves are any different to those of the Umbers.

100 "I do not claim Lord Wyman does the deeds himself. He brought three hundred men with him. A hundred knights. Any of them might have—"

Obviously I imagine he has far more at home, but clearly not enough to assault the Ironborn under Victarion

This seems to be the anomaly, but 600 might be enough to defeat a poorly trained 2k army under Rodrik but may not stand a chance against a similar sized Ironborn army.

Greybeards and green boys according to the book.

He did rally them. There was months between Winterfell being captured and and Rodrik attacking and all he raised was a pretty poor 2k.

Rodrik even comments that he did not have to wait for Robb to return to take the pathetically numbered Ironborn at Winterfell

"You hold three castles," replied Ser Rodrik, "and this one I mean to take back, Turncloak."..."Do not imagine that I need wait for Robb to fight his way up the Neck to deal with the likes of you. I have near two thousand men with me . . . and if the tales be true, you have no more than fifty."

But the implication is that he did have to wait for Robb to return for Moat Cailin.

 

Sure, these are possibilities, not certainties. I am not debating whether Balon's plan was 100% certain of success, no plan is, but that it was not 'truly stupid'. The books actually back Balon up on his plan.

So why didnt they? Either you are smarter and more aware of the Northern capabilities than every Northern Lord in the North as well as Robb who was returning North to deal with the Ironborn (and I'm guessing the author) or Balon was correct in his assessment.

The Ironborn had supply lines from Moat Cailin to the Fever River, it is only after Balon dies and the vast majority of the army leave do the Northern attempt to cut these supply lines.

And to reiterate, Balon is not saying the North is without numbers, he is saying those numbers are not worth much as they are old, young or not meant for war (cowards). Nothing in ACOK and ASOS suggests he was wrong on this assessment. The North only rallying being successful against them come ADWD when professional armies return North kind of shows that he was right,

No, he needed that army to defeat Robb completely. The rest of the North is not important at that point, defeating the military of the North was. Dividing the Ironborn under Victarion is only going to make it easier for smaller Northern armies to stand a chance against them. 

Though this point contradicts what you earlier said about the Northmen having the numbers to take Moat Cailin from the South. Balon recognizes the importance in keeping it, Winterfell and the other Northern settlements are entirely pointless if Robb and his army are able to return as they will quickly lose possession, the Ironborn's best chance is Robb dying on the causeway.

About Moat Cailin, it survived being besieged from both sides for months with only 67 men holding back 6,000 men from the south and thousands of men from the north. If u just leave 500 behind Robb would never be able to take it. Even if he did he would suffer horrible casualties. Heck had Robb tried to take it u can always send reinforcements through that supply line u mentioned. 

It's not that it's a truly horrible plan. it's just that it's a flawed plan. Winterfell is the symbolic Heart of the North. Even losing Moat Cailin and Deepwood Motte the North is still stable and would be able to fight back. There is always the possibility that the Northerners simply cut a deal with the Lannisters, and use ships to go to White Harbor and then counter attack. 

Also it was 100 knights and 200 men at arms, all of which were cavalry i think. Plus he had more he could have brought had it been the Starks. 

About the remaining Northmen. The 2K Rodrik had suffered a surprise attack by the Boltons. Even great soldiers could break during a surprise attack. We don't know how many Clansmen even died at Deepwood motte. we got some claims that they each killed alot but those were by the Ironborn's best fighters. If the Clansmen lost 300 men to Asha's 200 thats not that bad. Also Rodrik hadn't sent out for the Clansmen. He was only going to retake Winterfell. After that he was probably gonna recruit them. Gather all that up (not to mention the Mormonts, Rsywells and Dustins) and u have about 10,000 men the North could gather. Heck if we guess the Ryswells and Dustins could come up with 2,000 a piece (probably more) and add some sellswords the North would have 15,000 man host. Now it's not the best host,  it wouldn't beat Tywin's host, but it could have pushed back the Ironborn in many areas while Robb gathers what remains of his Northern host to return. For Balon's plan to actually succeed the Iron born would need to prevent the Northerners from gathering. Had Theon been given the men he could have held winterfell. and if given the bulk of the army after securing Moat Cailin they could have attacked each castle defeating the remaining Northern forces before they assembled. It's unfortunate that the Ironborn didn't have any real cavalry, which would have been a big help.  

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2 hours ago, Abdallah said:

U gotta plan for that u can't rely on ur enemies surrendering. Also so Robb would give up the North to fight the Lannisters? the more likely scenario is him making peace with the lannisters and regathering to take the North. Balon should have had a plan to strike in the heart of the North, to take castles like Winterfell, Cerwyn, Torrehn Square etc. 

No, but his weak position makes him more amenable to a deal favourable to Balon. And he's a king at this stage so he can't just make peace with Tywin. 

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22 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

We're supposed to believe that Balon isn't the smartest man in Westeros, but the more I think of it the more I realize that he's truly crazy if he thinks his strategy to conquer the North will work. He seized Moat Cailin to prevent Robb from returning north, but that doesn't stop Bran from rallying the North against his forces. He had no intention of taking Winterfell or even Torrhen's Square. All he did was plan to take Moat Cailin and Deepwood Motte, as though that would be sufficient. Even without Robb and his army, the North had enough troops to drive Balon out.

Theon's decision to take Winterfell is regarded as dumb and unlike the Ironborn way, but it saves the Ironborn from instant defeat. Bran and Rickon being alive and safe ensured that Ramsay is unable to conquer Winterfell or really do anything after his capture by Rodrik Cassel. And it would also ensure that the North would rally and drive the Ironborn back into the sea.

He never intend to "conquer" the North, he just planed to occupied the coast area of the North as his base, and he would sit and wait the process of the war of five Kings, based on what happened in that war, he would pick a place in the south to do his "old way"

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13 hours ago, dariopatke said:

The fact that Jaime was easily beaten by Robb show Lannister men lacked training if you are going with that logic.

lol it is not my 'logic', it is actually stated in the books.

Balon claims the the North will be mainly Green boys and old men, Luwin, Bran and Rodrik Cassel all back this up

Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around.

The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less.
Bran watched them from the balcony of Maester Luwin's turret, listening to them grunt and strain and curse as they swung their staves and wooden swords. The yard was alive to the clack of wood on wood, punctuated all too often by thwacks and yowls of pain when a blow struck leather or flesh. Ser Rodrik strode among the boys, face reddening beneath his white whiskers, muttering at them one and all. Bran had never seen the old knight look so fierce. "No," he kept saying. "No. No. No."
 
Which is further backed up from Alys Karstark
 
"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war.
 
and the Umbers
 
"None. No men." He grinned at his own wit. "He had boys. I saw them." Aside from a handful of half-crippled serjeants, the warriors that Crowfood had brought down from Last Hearth were hardly old enough to shave. "Their spears and axes were older than the hands that clutched them. It was Whoresbane Umber who had the men, inside the castle. I saw them too. Old men, every one." Theon tittered. "Mors took the green boys and Hother took the greybeards. All the real men went with the Greatjon and died at the Red Wedding. Is that what you wanted to know, Your Grace?"
 
And of course there is the fact that Robb never once considers raising a second army from the North to help him, he feels the need to go back North with his entire Northern army (and the Freys) and no Lords in the North did their duty to fight the Ironborn or help the Watch while the Northern military was away.
 
All the evidence in the books show that Balon's opinion was bang on the money.
 
 

 

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8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

About Moat Cailin, it survived being besieged from both sides for months with only 67 men holding back 6,000 men from the south and thousands of men from the north.

Wait, what? When did this happen? Can you quote the relevant chapters as I have no recollection of Moat Cailin being sieged for months by thousands of men.

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

 

If u just leave 500 behind Robb would never be able to take it. Even if he did he would suffer horrible casualties. Heck had Robb tried to take it u can always send reinforcements through that supply line u mentioned. 

Sure he would. It would have been bloody but Robb would have the means to take a 500 Ironborn army at Moat Cailin.

Robb actually left men at Moat Cailin and they were easily overwhelmed by Victarion and his army. Only leaving 500 would be tempting fate, when Balon's entire plan hinged on Robb and his army being defeated.

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

It's not that it's a truly horrible plan. it's just that it's a flawed plan. Winterfell is the symbolic Heart of the North.

Sure, but for the reasons Asha gives Theon, it is a pointless waste of resources. The Ironborn military were either safer or of better use elsewhere, Winterfell could wait.

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

 

Even losing Moat Cailin and Deepwood Motte the North is still stable and would be able to fight back. There is always the possibility that the Northerners simply cut a deal with the Lannisters, and use ships to go to White Harbor and then counter attack. 

Those ships did not exist when Balon attacked. Those ships are still not properly manned and it would take months, maybe even half a year for them to sail all the way around Westeros to face the Ironborn.

More importantly, White Harbor's Navy is no match for the Ironborn, it would be sailing all the way around Westeros to face defeat.

 

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Also it was 100 knights and 200 men at arms, all of which were cavalry i think. Plus he had more he could have brought had it been the Starks. 

Key word here. It was 100 knights, it is unknown what the other 200 were but it seems unlikely they were 300 heavy cavalry like you initially claimed.

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

About the remaining Northmen. The 2K Rodrik had suffered a surprise attack by the Boltons. Even great soldiers could break during a surprise attack.

They were not great though, we have Bran and Luwin's words backing this up.

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

We don't know how many Clansmen even died at Deepwood motte. we got some claims that they each killed alot but those were by the Ironborn's best fighters.

The two hundred with Asha are the Ironborn's best fighters? Do you have a source for this?

Hagan's daughter manages to easily kill one of the Clan members who surprise here while she is naked and having sex.

And I'm sorry, it does not matter how good the Ironborn warriors are, a trained army with odds of 20:1 should be taking, few if any casualties.

Grimtongue was counting the northmen as he killed them, calling out, "Four," as one went down and, "Five," a heartbeat later...."Seven," shouted Grimtongue
 
Grimtongue could be Arthur Dayne reborn, he would not be doing so well against professionally trained soldiers (see the Tower of Joy).
8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

 

If the Clansmen lost 300 men to Asha's 200 thats not that bad.


Yeah, it is. It is incredibly bad considering their military numbers.

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Also Rodrik hadn't sent out for the Clansmen.

How do you know this? He sent Ravens everywhere else, as far away as Karhold, what has he got against the Mountain Clans to not request their help?

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

He was only going to retake Winterfell.

eh? So why ask for help for the much further away Karhold, Barrowton, Flints Finger and White Harbor?

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

 

After that he was probably gonna recruit them.

Sure, that makes perfect sense. :rolleyes:

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Gather all that up (not to mention the Mormonts, Rsywells and Dustins) and u have about 10,000 men the North could gather.

Maybe. Though men is stretching it, they are mostly green boys and old men. We have not seen anywhere near 10k trained soldiers in the North after Robb left. That is the point that Balon makes.

He is not saying the North is bereft of bodies, males willing to fight he is pointing out that they are no match for the Ironborn as they are too young, old, poorly trained and poorly equipped.

You can hand every man in Kings Landing a lance, it does not mean the city has an army of 150k.

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Heck if we guess the Ryswells and Dustins could come up with 2,000 a piece (probably more)

That is precisely what that is. A random number with no textu8al evidence for it. Making up random numbers is not proving your point. Sorry.

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

 

and add some sellswords the North would have 15,000 man host.

lol so why have they not? Why is Robb marching home if he knew there was this many back home? Why did he not send word to gather a second host to help him fight his war in the South.

Robb and Cat in the South and Rodrik in the North were all desperate for trained military to help them and there is zero times they mention this 15k reserve army. It is just pure BS.

8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Had Theon been given the men he could have held winterfell.

To do what? It is symbolic, nothing else.

 

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21 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:
8 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Had Theon been given the men he could have held winterfell.

thelittledragonthatcould said:

To do what? It is symbolic, nothing else.

 

I gotta disagree there, Winterfell is one of the strongest fortifications in Westeros and was well provisioned after the harvest.

The castle could have been defended with a few hundred men and would have tied down thousands of northmen for months if besieged.
If Asha had brought sufficient men, Theon could have sent Bran to the Ironislands and kept Rickon as a hostage in Winterfell.

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24 minutes ago, fenr1s said:

I gotta disagree there, Winterfell is one of the strongest fortifications in Westeros and was well provisioned after the harvest.

The castle could have been defended with a few hundred men and would have tied down thousands of northmen for months if besieged.
If Asha had brought sufficient men, Theon could have sent Bran to the Ironislands and kept Rickon as a hostage in Winterfell.

Theon had a plan to take Winterfell. Heck even if Balon didn't trust the plan, atleast send the men after he has winterfell. 

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23 minutes ago, fenr1s said:

I gotta disagree there, Winterfell is one of the strongest fortifications in Westeros and was well provisioned after the harvest.

Then do as Asha suggested, strip Winterfell of its provisions, riches and noble hostages and take them to a castle on the coast were they can have back up if needed or escape if needed.

23 minutes ago, fenr1s said:

The castle could have been defended with a few hundred men and would have tied down thousands of northmen for months if besieged.

And then die?

"Your prize will be the doom of you. Krakens rise from the sea, Theon, or did you forget that during your years among the wolves? Our strength is in our longships. My wooden pisspot sits close enough to the sea for supplies and fresh men to reach me whenever they are needful. But Winterfell is hundreds of leagues inland, ringed by woods, hills, and hostile holdfasts and castles."

It is pure vanity on Theon's part. Defeating Robb and his army is what is important, afterwards the castles (in the North-West at least) would be hugely vulnerable to the Ironborn.

Splitting up the forces at Moat Cailin only increases the chances of Robb and his army being able to take it.

Winterfell is not going anywhere, as Balon acknowledges.

Lord Balon rode over him. "The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys. They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it? The rest shall be ours, forest and field and hall, and we shall make the folk our thralls and salt wives."

23 minutes ago, fenr1s said:

If Asha had brought sufficient men, Theon could have sent Bran to the Ironislands and kept Rickon as a hostage in Winterfell.

eh? Theon did not tell Asha his plans to take Winterfell, she only came after he asked for help and that was after Bran and Rickon had escaped.

 

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1 hour ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Wait, what? When did this happen? Can you quote the relevant chapters as I have no recollection of Moat Cailin being sieged for months by thousands of men.

Sure he would. It would have been bloody but Robb would have the means to take a 500 Ironborn army at Moat Cailin.

Robb actually left men at Moat Cailin and they were easily overwhelmed by Victarion and his army. Only leaving 500 would be tempting fate, when Balon's entire plan hinged on Robb and his army being defeated.

Sure, but for the reasons Asha gives Theon, it is a pointless waste of resources. The Ironborn military were either safer or of better use elsewhere, Winterfell could wait.

Those ships did not exist when Balon attacked. Those ships are still not properly manned and it would take months, maybe even half a year for them to sail all the way around Westeros to face the Ironborn.

More importantly, White Harbor's Navy is no match for the Ironborn, it would be sailing all the way around Westeros to face defeat.

 

Key word here. It was 100 knights, it is unknown what the other 200 were but it seems unlikely they were 300 heavy cavalry like you initially claimed.

They were not great though, we have Bran and Luwin's words backing this up.

The two hundred with Asha are the Ironborn's best fighters? Do you have a source for this?

Hagan's daughter manages to easily kill one of the Clan members who surprise here while she is naked and having sex.

And I'm sorry, it does not matter how good the Ironborn warriors are, a trained army with odds of 20:1 should be taking, few if any casualties.

Grimtongue was counting the northmen as he killed them, calling out, "Four," as one went down and, "Five," a heartbeat later...."Seven," shouted Grimtongue
 
Grimtongue could be Arthur Dayne reborn, he would not be doing so well against professionally trained soldiers (see the Tower of Joy).


Yeah, it is. It is incredibly bad considering their military numbers.

How do you know this? He sent Ravens everywhere else, as far away as Karhold, what has he got against the Mountain Clans to not request their help?

eh? So why ask for help for the much further away Karhold, Barrowton, Flints Finger and White Harbor?

Sure, that makes perfect sense. :rolleyes:

Maybe. Though men is stretching it, they are mostly green boys and old men. We have not seen anywhere near 10k trained soldiers in the North after Robb left. That is the point that Balon makes.

He is not saying the North is bereft of bodies, males willing to fight he is pointing out that they are no match for the Ironborn as they are too young, old, poorly trained and poorly equipped.

You can hand every man in Kings Landing a lance, it does not mean the city has an army of 150k.

That is precisely what that is. A random number with no textu8al evidence for it. Making up random numbers is not proving your point. Sorry.

lol so why have they not? Why is Robb marching home if he knew there was this many back home? Why did he not send word to gather a second host to help him fight his war in the South.

Robb and Cat in the South and Rodrik in the North were all desperate for trained military to help them and there is zero times they mention this 15k reserve army. It is just pure BS.

To do what? It is symbolic, nothing else.

 

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Siege_of_Moat_Cailin I assume it was at least a few months. 

I wonder how much of Robb's host would die storming Moat Cailin? Also once the Ironborn hear that the Starks were moving back to the North they could have sent reinforcements. Or heck ok leave 1000 men. Also the ironborn could have sent reinforcements while Robb attacks. 

Victorian took the moat cause they attacked the garrison while they were unprepared for a fight from the North. plus the Moat is stronger from the south. 

Leaving winterfell still allows the Starks to show strength. Like Roose Bolton says Robb's campaign began to collaspe after Winterfell fell. Losing 2 castles did nothing to collaspe the North. Taking Winterfell caused a fall for confidence in the North. Taking Winterfell was huge. 

All Robb needed was to ferry his men from the riverlands to White Harbor. The Ironborn had not reached the Narrow Sea. I'm not talking about a navel battle, I'm just giving an alternative way for Robb Stark to get to the North. Even with my own plan that I'm suggesting the north would still be hard to take. All it would need is merchant ships. It might take a while but it is still a way for Robb Stark to get home.

Ok say the 200 men at arms weren't just heavy cav, I'm sure Wyman had more knights at white harbor. 

http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Battle_at_Winterfell The Stark forces were unprepared when the Boltons attacked. They thought they were friends and the Bolton forces were able to cycle charges where they charge, retreat and charge again. The Host isn't actually destroyed, many of the leaders are killed and the host disperses cause they were surprised and leaderless.

I'm saying out of the 200, we only hear about how Asha and the few mentioned friends were doing, her friends being the best out of the 200 Ironborn Asha had. Also when a force is cornered they fight harder, according to Sun Tzu. Again it's not nearly as bad as people make it out to be. Attacking any fortress leads to casualties, as well as cutting down a cornered enemy. it's not like Asha's 200 met the clansmen in a pitched battle. OMG one Clansman is killed by Hagan's daughter. maybe that individual clansmen though she was just a serving girl that served no military value.

Grimtounge could just be boasting. 

Stannis had to meet them in person. Rodrik might of done the same. The initial forces were the ones he was taking winterfell with. Then he was gonna gather more men to push the ironborn back. 

Green boys can be trained. thats another problem with Balon's plan. it allows the northerners to regather. 

The Karstarks could field up to 3,000 people. Thats the usual amount a medium lord could gather. the Ryswells and Dustins are considered strong houses. both didn't send alot of fighters. 

Robb couldn't do that because he lost winterfell, and the North was in chaos, mainly cause of Theon. Like I said before, that host wouldn't be useful against a force like Tywin Lannister, but they might of been useful against the Ironborn, especially since the would outnumber the iron born. I did mention where I got these numbers from. 600 from Boltons, 300 manderlys, 3000 mountain tribes, Im sure you could get 100 Hornwoods, thats what Wyman was doing according to davos, recruiting hornwood men. 2000 of Rodrik's host, 800 Umbers, 450 Karstarks, and an undisclosed number of Glovers, Mormonts, Ryswells, and Dustins. could have built a large force especially since they have time. 

Symbolics have a huge role in military warfare. It has a huge effect on morale. Both the Mamluks and Ottomans would have sufis predict victory for their forces before battle cause it gave them a boost in morale. The Crusaders in the first crusade came up with all these religious items and afterwords always used the piece of the true cross in battle for the morale boost (before they lost it at Hattin).

Also Winterfell could have been used as a base to attack other castles. There is no reason for the Boltons, Manderlys, Karstarks to fear or panic cause the Ironborn took moat cailin or Deepwood motte. Without Winterfell Robb Stark still would look like he's in control and that there is no need to panic. If ur going to conquer somewhere u need to destabilize the region. 

 

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The ironborn are strange people who operate differently from the rest of Westeros. I can write a long post about that but Viking explained it better then I can ever do. 

Balon's best course of action would have been to stuck a deal with the crown. He would focus his army in capturing Winterfell and in capturing and holding Moat Cailin. The former can be burnt to the ground with Rickon and Bran dragged to the iron islands as hostages. That would demoralise the Stark army and Robb in particular whose family is now in the hands of the Lannisters. The latter will cut the Northern forces route home short, turning them into sitting ducks for the royalist army.

The Greyjoys could ask in exchange to be appointed Lord Paramount of the iron islands and the Riverlands. That would somehow restore the Hoare empire. Asha would assume control over the iron islands in exchange of her marrying Bran. With Robb brought to justice, their sons and daughters will inherit the North. Theon will be appointed as Balon's heir, he will move to Riverrun and he will marry Myrcella. That would consolidate the alliance between the Greyjoys, the Lannisters and the crown. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

lol it is not my 'logic', it is actually stated in the books.

Balon claims the the North will be mainly Green boys and old men, Luwin, Bran and Rodrik Cassel all back this up

Ser Rodrik has the truth of it, we need men to walk the walls. Your lord father took the cream of his guard to King's Landing, and your brother took the rest, along with all the likely lads for leagues around.

The oldest were men grown, seventeen and eighteen years from the day of their naming. One was past twenty. Most were younger, sixteen or less.
Bran watched them from the balcony of Maester Luwin's turret, listening to them grunt and strain and curse as they swung their staves and wooden swords. The yard was alive to the clack of wood on wood, punctuated all too often by thwacks and yowls of pain when a blow struck leather or flesh. Ser Rodrik strode among the boys, face reddening beneath his white whiskers, muttering at them one and all. Bran had never seen the old knight look so fierce. "No," he kept saying. "No. No. No."
 
Which is further backed up from Alys Karstark
 
"Not well." Alys sighed. "My father took so many of our men south with him that only the women and young boys were left to bring the harvest in. Them, and the men too old or crippled to go off to war.
 
and the Umbers
 
"None. No men." He grinned at his own wit. "He had boys. I saw them." Aside from a handful of half-crippled serjeants, the warriors that Crowfood had brought down from Last Hearth were hardly old enough to shave. "Their spears and axes were older than the hands that clutched them. It was Whoresbane Umber who had the men, inside the castle. I saw them too. Old men, every one." Theon tittered. "Mors took the green boys and Hother took the greybeards. All the real men went with the Greatjon and died at the Red Wedding. Is that what you wanted to know, Your Grace?"
 
And of course there is the fact that Robb never once considers raising a second army from the North to help him, he feels the need to go back North with his entire Northern army (and the Freys) and no Lords in the North did their duty to fight the Ironborn or help the Watch while the Northern military was away.
 
All the evidence in the books show that Balon's opinion was bang on the money.
 
 

 

Yes, this is something I do not get, after longest summer in living memory North couldnt raise 30k like it could in Aegons conquest and DoD. And my statement is that those men might win or lose if they knew they will fight Ramsay, but we cant say it for sure, surprise attack and quick killing of Northern commander is what doomed them.

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20 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Then do as Asha suggested, strip Winterfell of its provisions, riches and noble hostages and take them to a castle on the coast were they can have back up if needed or escape if needed.

And then die?

Asha took Deepwood Motte with a 1000 men, if she had taken 300-400 with her to Winterfell the castle could be defended for months.

Any northern force investing Winterfell would be incapable of attacking Victarion from the north.

 

20 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 

It is pure vanity on Theon's part. Defeating Robb and his army is what is important, afterwards the castles (in the North-West at least) would be hugely vulnerable to the Ironborn.

Splitting up the forces at Moat Cailin only increases the chances of Robb and his army being able to take it.

Winterfell is not going anywhere, as Balon acknowledges.

Victarion's forces dont need to be split even a third of Asha's force would be sufficient to hold Winterfell against thousands of northmen until Robbs army gets smashed against Moat Callin. 

Any northern force at Winterfell means less enemies attacking Victarion's rear.

 

20 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

 

eh? Theon did not tell Asha his plans to take Winterfell, she only came after he asked for help and that was after Bran and Rickon had escaped.

 

Well technically Bran and Rickon didnt escape but were still hiding in Winterfell, with a few hundred Ironmen guarding the walls its unlikely they could sneak away and they would soon run out of food.

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17 hours ago, devilish said:

Balon's best course of action would have been to stuck a deal with the crown. He would focus his army in capturing Winterfell and in capturing and holding Moat Cailin. The former can be burnt to the ground with Rickon and Bran dragged to the iron islands as hostages. That would demoralise the Stark army and Robb in particular whose family is now in the hands of the Lannisters. The latter will cut the Northern forces route home short, turning them into sitting ducks for the royalist army.

The Greyjoys could ask in exchange to be appointed Lord Paramount of the iron islands and the Riverlands. That would somehow restore the Hoare empire. Asha would assume control over the iron islands in exchange of her marrying Bran. With Robb brought to justice, their sons and daughters will inherit the North. Theon will be appointed as Balon's heir, he will move to Riverrun and he will marry Myrcella. That would consolidate the alliance between the Greyjoys, the Lannisters and the crown. 

I like this. But if I was the Crown/Balon I'd go for giving the Ironborn a chunk of the North. If you draw a line from Bear Island to Moat Caitlin it encompasses about 2/5ths of the North and all the places easily reached by Ironborn ships by sea or by going up river (Bear Island, Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square, the Stony Shore, Barrowton, Flint's Fingers etc). Heaps of fertile land and lumber for the Iron Born and easily reinforced by the Iron Islands. You'd need to work out a few more details but I think that's manageable.

If I was the crown I'd look at abolishing the Riverland's Paramount entirely and start absorbing it into the Crownlands and Westlands.

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5 hours ago, GallowsKnight said:

I like this. But if I was the Crown/Balon I'd go for giving the Ironborn a chunk of the North. If you draw a line from Bear Island to Moat Caitlin it encompasses about 2/5ths of the North and all the places easily reached by Ironborn ships by sea or by going up river (Bear Island, Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square, the Stony Shore, Barrowton, Flint's Fingers etc). Heaps of fertile land and lumber for the Iron Born and easily reinforced by the Iron Islands. You'd need to work out a few more details but I think that's manageable.

If I was the crown I'd look at abolishing the Riverland's Paramount entirely and start absorbing it into the Crownlands and Westlands.

The North is too vast and too wild to control. It will only take a Stark to rebel and the Greyjoys would lose their lands with no chance of ever getting it back. The Riverlands are more manageable. Its a win win situation for both the Greyjoys and the crown. The Greyjoys will get more land which they can manage, the Lannisters (through marriage between Theon and Myrcella) will get an ally who will confront the Northern army if it ever decides to travel past Moat Cailin again.

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39 minutes ago, devilish said:

The North is too vast and too wild to control. It will only take a Stark to rebel and the Greyjoys would lose their lands with no chance of ever getting it back. The Riverlands are more manageable. Its a win win situation for both the Greyjoys and the crown. The Greyjoys will get more land which they can manage, the Lannisters (through marriage between Theon and Myrcella) will get an ally who will confront the Northern army if it ever decides to travel past Moat Cailin again.

In the past it has been that way, it doesn't mean the future is set in stone. Until the Targs came the Seven Kingdoms had never been united. Things progress and change. 

If Theon had Bran and Rickon and Robb was forced to surrender in the Riverlands to Tywin, with hostages taken from many of his bannermen. the Iron Throne could back the Greyjoys taking a manageable chunk from the Starks, as reward for the Ironborn, punishment for the Starks

You'll notice I've only mentioned land where the major points of interest are reachable by ship. If any Northernors rebelled there the Ironborn could escape by sea and return in number to retake it. But with the above in place that shouldn't happen. And if it does it's Ironborn dying not Lannisters "so what pffff, who cares?".

The problem with the Ironborn in the Riverlands...is you're putting Ironborn in the Riverlands. You're going to piss of the Riverlands, you're going to have basically raid hungry savages occupying fertile lands between your two seats of power Casterly Rock and Kingslanding. Better to absorb those into the West and the Crownlands (and even the Vale if they come around to your side (the Saltpans for example).

Also aside from Seagard it's actually kind of tricky for the Ironborn to operate in the Riverlands. They have to drag their boats across land to access the Trident.

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42 minutes ago, GallowsKnight said:

In the past it has been that way, it doesn't mean the future is set in stone. Until the Targs came the Seven Kingdoms had never been united. Things progress and change. 

If Theon had Bran and Rickon and Robb was forced to surrender in the Riverlands to Tywin, with hostages taken from many of his bannermen. the Iron Throne could back the Greyjoys taking a manageable chunk from the Starks, as reward for the Ironborn, punishment for the Starks

You'll notice I've only mentioned land where the major points of interest are reachable by ship. If any Northernors rebelled there the Ironborn could escape by sea and return in number to retake it. But with the above in place that shouldn't happen. And if it does it's Ironborn dying not Lannisters "so what pffff, who cares?".

The problem with the Ironborn in the Riverlands...is you're putting Ironborn in the Riverlands. You're going to piss of the Riverlands, you're going to have basically raid hungry savages occupying fertile lands between your two seats of power Casterly Rock and Kingslanding. Better to absorb those into the West and the Crownlands (and even the Vale if they come around to your side (the Saltpans for example).

Also aside from Seagard it's actually kind of tricky for the Ironborn to operate in the Riverlands. They have to drag their boats across land to access the Trident.

That has nothing to do with what I said I am afraid. The North is the North and it had been the Starks/North domain and anti-Iron islanders for thousands of years. No army had ever been able to bypass Moat Cailin and the Starks only bend the knee because of dragons.

The Riverlands had been the iron islander’s domain for many centuries (Hoare dynasty), so it would be easier for the Riverland Lords to accept the Greyjoys as opposed to the Northern Lords. These lands tend to be richer and easier to manage (an advantage to the Greyjoys) and if their lords decide to rebel they are far easier to invade (an advantage for both the Greyjoys and the Crown). The last thing King Baratheon/Lannister would want is to pacify the North only for it to rebel and being forced to send armies to the North. As said, no Southern army had ever been able to bypass Moat Cailin. Actually there’s something worse. Imagine if the Greyjoys do manage to convince the Northern clans to adopt the Iron Islanders way. You’ll have skilled warriors on ships, raiding from a safe base which unlike the iron islands/riverlands is almost impossible to invade. That’s one hell of a prospect.

I think that Theon can easily be swayed to adopt the Westerosi ways especially if they dangle the fertile Riverlands and a Westerosi princess at his face. Its an experiment worth to try. If it fails, well, both the Riverlands and the iron islands are relatively easy to invade and crush.

 

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1 hour ago, devilish said:

1. That has nothing to do with what I said I am afraid. The North is the North and it had been the Starks/North domain and anti-Iron islanders for thousands of years. 2. No army had ever been able to bypass Moat Cailin and the Starks only bend the knee because of dragons.

3. The Riverlands had been the iron islander’s domain for many centuries (Hoare dynasty), so it would be easier for the Riverland Lords to accept the Greyjoys as opposed to the Northern Lords.

4.These lands tend to be richer and easier to manage (an advantage to the Greyjoys) and if their lords decide to rebel they are far easier to invade (an advantage for both the Greyjoys and the Crown).

5. The last thing King Baratheon/Lannister would want is to pacify the North only for it to rebel and being forced to send armies to the North. As said, no Southern army had ever been able to bypass Moat Cailin. Actually there’s something worse. Imagine if the Greyjoys do manage to convince the Northern clans to adopt the Iron Islanders way. You’ll have skilled warriors on ships, raiding from a safe base which unlike the iron islands/riverlands is almost impossible to invade. That’s one hell of a prospect.

I think we're not going to agree.

1. That's my point. Sure traditionally it's been anti-Iron Islander. But things change. Never before has a Lord of Winterfell rebelled against the Iron Throne, been crowned again, only to be cut off Ironborn controlling Moat Caitlin. 

2. As you said no army has ever been able to bypass Moat Caitlin, except the Ironborn hold it and I'm proposing giving them the only Northern land accessible from the Seas.

3. And the Riverlanders hated them as much as the Northerners

4. But why give the richer and easier lands to the Ironborn? When you can keep them for the Crown/Lannisters?

5. The Ironborn are enough of a problem normally. If anything getting them involved in the North is a distraction. To counter balance I make Roose Bolton Lord of the other 3/5ths of the North and play the two factions against each other so I don't ever have to send forces North.

Let me show you a map I've crudely squiggled on:

http://imgur.com/a/yRCiP

This is what I'm roughly proposing. The Riverlands is easily carved up between the West and the Crownlands. The majority is absorbed by the Westerlands, with Harrenhal and everything east part of the Crownlands, except the Saltpans which the Vale can have.

The Ironborn get that chunk of the North. While t's a large amount of land, the key population centres are all located by the coast or Rivers. 

For comparison you can see these regions are that much bigger than other Kingdoms. (The Westerlands and half the Riverlands is still smaller than the Reach).

Anyway, thank you for the discussion.

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1 hour ago, GallowsKnight said:

I think we're not going to agree.

1. That's my point. Sure traditionally it's been anti-Iron Islander. But things change. Never before has a Lord of Winterfell rebelled against the Iron Throne, been crowned again, only to be cut off Ironborn controlling Moat Caitlin. 

2. As you said no army has ever been able to bypass Moat Caitlin, except the Ironborn hold it and I'm proposing giving them the only Northern land accessible from the Seas.

3. And the Riverlanders hated them as much as the Northerners

4. But why give the richer and easier lands to the Ironborn? When you can keep them for the Crown/Lannisters?

5. The Ironborn are enough of a problem normally. If anything getting them involved in the North is a distraction. To counter balance I make Roose Bolton Lord of the other 3/5ths of the North and play the two factions against each other so I don't ever have to send forces North.

Let me show you a map I've crudely squiggled on:

http://imgur.com/a/yRCiP

This is what I'm roughly proposing. The Riverlands is easily carved up between the West and the Crownlands. The majority is absorbed by the Westerlands, with Harrenhal and everything east part of the Crownlands, except the Saltpans which the Vale can have.

The Ironborn get that chunk of the North. While t's a large amount of land, the key population centres are all located by the coast or Rivers. 

For comparison you can see these regions are that much bigger than other Kingdoms. (The Westerlands and half the Riverlands is still smaller than the Reach).

Anyway, thank you for the discussion.

There’s no good and bad answer to this. You’re entitled to my opinion and you to yours. I see a lot of sense in what you’re saying and I don’t mind discussing our ideas further tbh.

As said, I can’t see the North being ruled by anyone apart from the North. However I do agree with your idea of stripping Moat Cailin from the Northerners. However I would feel uneasy to give it to the Greyjoys who is hardly very loyal especially considering that Theon is a Stark sucker. If it was for me I’d give the treacherous Walder Frey an early retirement, give his lands to his son Emmon Frey and his bossy wife and extend the Frey lands to extend the neck. I’d appoint Lord Emmon as Paramount of the Freylands and the neck. That would weaken the North, reward Emmon for his loyalty without making him too powerful and punish the rest of the Freys for betraying the crown.  

The Greyjoys will get the rest of the Riverlands. Maybe Id strip a piece of land across the entire Westerlands borders (including Riverrun, Pink Maiden and Stony Sept) to award the Lannister with more lands and give Kevan Lannister his much deserving castle and title (Lord of Riverrun) but that would be it. The tactic for the iron islanders is pretty similar to the Frey one. You’re rewarding them for their loyalty, you'll boost their ego by returning Harrenhal to them, you'll weaken your enemy,  you're giving the iron islanders a viable alternative to reaving (the iron islands are just too poor to survive without reaving) but without actually making them too powerful. We all know that the Riverlands are a nightmare to defend. If they rebel, the crownlands, the Reach, the Lord Paramount of the Reach and the Freylands and the Westerlands can invade all at once crushing them altogether.

I also agree fully in strengthening and increasing the crownlands. They are one of the weakest regions in the kingdom and KL is a nightmare to defend. However that’s pretty straightforward to do. Don’t forget that the crownlands are a remnant of the Targeryan rule and King Joffrey is a BARATHEON. His father was Lord Paramount of the Stormlands who handled his lands to his brother as an act of kindness only for Renly to slander Robert’s name and rebel when Robert’s son, heir and Renly’s nephew needed him the most.  Its time for King Joffrey to not only remove the last remnant of Targeryan rule by moving the capital city from KL to the Stormlands but also to reclaim and put in order his dad’s house. The advantages are endless

a-      Storm’s end is an impregnable fortress which is almost impossible to invade. It would prove to be a perfect capital city

b-      The Stormlands produce some of the finest soldiers around. Hopefully that warlike nature will rub off to the other Lords in the crownlands

c-       It will serve as a big statement to all Westeros that the Targeryan rule is truly over and that Joffrey is a true Baratheon

d-      It will remove the nasty question of whom will inherit the Lordship of the Stormlands (the last 2 betrayed the king)

Jamie should be made to resign from KG and assume his role as Tywin’s heir (wouldn’t Sansa be the perfect wife for him, especially if the Greyjoys can be persuaded to hand over Rickon and Bran and one happen to die while the other becomes KG). Tyrion will be given the task to restore and then become Lord of Tarbeck Hall and Castamere (money which daddy will give him as long as he stays in line). I am sure daddy can find him a good wife ( Asha Greyjoy or Wynafryd Manderly maybe?). Cersei will be Lady of Dragonstone assuming she also stay in line and marry the person daddy wants (Aegon Blackfyre can be persuaded to return peacefully, alternatively Quentyn martell or Harry Strickland could be persuaded to a matriarchal marriage as long as the latter brings Aegon's head). Tommen could be appointed as KL lord as long as the boy also marries a decent wife (ie Talla Tarly)

 

 

 

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