Preston Jacobs Dornish Master Plan

[YOVMO]

I'll come right out and say it, I love PJ's videos. Even things I totally disagree with (Robb naming Catelyn his heir) are cool. The videos show an intelligent, organized and excited mind.

 

So I am wondering, for those of you who have seen all 7 episodes, what you think of his theories RE the Dornish Master Plan. While I enjoy his stuff immensely, I never give him a pass without heavy scrutiny and I am just having a hard time wrapping my head around all of it and deciding where I agree and where I disagree. Anyone who has any ideas regarding this would be most welcome to share them with me. My ideas, inchoate at first, often become more clear as I go through the back and forth with the good folks here.

 

Thanks in advance

[Oakhearts head]

I too enjoy PJ's video's, but they're admittedly full of crackpot theories. He recently reneged on his initial Dornish Master plan to the best of my knowledge. His "What You're Missing" series is great, though.

[Abdallah]

18 minutes ago, Oakhearts head said:

I too enjoy PJ's video's, but they're admittedly full of crackpot theories. He recently reneged on his initial Dornish Master plan to the best of my knowledge. His "What You're Missing" series is great, though.

He's just improving it. I think the Dornish are plotting something. Also alot of the things he said do make sense

[Oakhearts head]

13 minutes ago, Abdallah said:

He's just improving it. I think the Dornish are plotting something. Also alot of the things he said do make sense

Oh, I agree. I think his videos are very well thought out and he makes some great points that I happen to agree with and it's more than likely I wouldn't have noticed them if he hadn't pointed them out. With that said, I do think he tends to go a bit too far into crackpot territory at times, which is bound to happen in a series where the author leaves so much up to interpretation.

[Scorpion92]

I especially like his ideas of installing Dornish Law across Seven Kingdoms and restoration of Rhoynar culture. It does make sense after Oberyn's travel to Chroyane.

[Abdallah]

45 minutes ago, Oakhearts head said:

Oh, I agree. I think his videos are very well thought out and he makes some great points that I happen to agree with and it's more than likely I wouldn't have noticed them if he hadn't pointed them out. With that said, I do think he tends to go a bit too far into crackpot territory at times, which is bound to happen in a series where the author leaves so much up to interpretation.

True. Some of his theories are too grand. but if it happens, then damn dude. GRRM is a madman, it could happen. 

[Dorian Martell]

3 hours ago, YOVMO said:

I'll come right out and say it, I love PJ's videos. Even things I totally disagree with (Robb naming Catelyn his heir) are cool. The videos show an intelligent, organized and excited mind.

So I am wondering, for those of you who have seen all 7 episodes, what you think of his theories RE the Dornish Master Plan. While I enjoy his stuff immensely, I never give him a pass without heavy scrutiny and I am just having a hard time wrapping my head around all of it and deciding where I agree and where I disagree. Anyone who has any ideas regarding this would be most welcome to share them with me. My ideas, inchoate at first, often become more clear as I go through the back and forth with the good folks here.

Thanks in advance

His ideas are far to complex and only losely based on any text from the books. He takes major liberties and maked major leaps and assumptions to, many are unfounded. He also has a lot of time on his hands to make slick videos. 

[The Young_Lion]

I find that some of his videos are great - he has loads of evidence that I would never have noticed for  Quentyn not being dead, and his videos on the Vale and the Royces knowing about 'Alayne' are strong.

However while the stuff he brings in the first videos on his theories is generally good, his later videos are generally far less believable - while the first steps in his theories are reasonably likely, once he is three or four steps down his analysis, even if individually the steps are quite reasonable, due to the laws of probability there is almost certainly an error somewhere and this means that all the minutiae he analyses are irrelevant as the chain is broken.

His theories in long series of videos also become far too complex. Beyond a certain point they become so intricate that they simply could not be communicated in a novel, and therefore GRRM would not be able to use them.

[Oakhearts head]

9 minutes ago, The Young_Lion said:

I find that some of his videos are great - he has loads of evidence that I would never have noticed for  Quentyn not being dead, and his videos on the Vale and the Royces knowing about 'Alayne' are strong.

However while the stuff he brings in the first videos on his theories is generally good, his later videos are generally far less believable - while the first steps in his theories are reasonably likely, once he is three or four steps down his analysis, even if individually the steps are quite reasonable, due to the laws of probability there is almost certainly an error somewhere and this means that all the minutiae he analyses are irrelevant as the chain is broken.

His theories in long series of videos also become far too complex. Beyond a certain point they become so intricate that they simply could not be communicated in a novel, and therefore GRRM would not be able to use them.

Yeah, I think that sums it up pretty well. 

[Knight Of Winter]

3 hours ago, The Young_Lion said:

I find that some of his videos are great - he has loads of evidence that I would never have noticed for  Quentyn not being dead, and his videos on the Vale and the Royces knowing about 'Alayne' are strong.

Which video does PJ talk about Royces and Alayne? I'm trying to find it, but with no success so far.

[Lord Wraith]

18 minutes ago, Knight Of Winter said:

Which video does PJ talk about Royces and Alayne? I'm trying to find it, but with no success so far.

 

[Knight Of Winter]

@Lord Wraith - thanks

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

Half of the original video's he made were done using theories or at least major elements of them which he lifted from other fans.  Put simply he took a few long held theories and claimed them as his own.  He also uses artists work to make his video's without crediting them ,and in fact refused to do so when confronted about this.  Most of his video's; now that he's run out of theories to lift from the forums and present as his own are just completely ridiculous.  He stretches and supposes until basically he's just talking nonsense.  

Out of all the prominent vloggers, bloggers, and pod-casters etc in the ASOIAF fandom, he is the one whom I have least respect for.  And I'll be honest when people cite him I tend to devalue their opinion too.  

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

5 hours ago, Dorian Martell said:

He also has a lot of time on his hands to make slick videos. 

U jel?

51 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Half of the original video's he made were done using theories or at least major elements of them which he lifted from other fans.  Put simply he took a few long held theories and claimed them as his own.  He also uses artists work to make his video's without crediting them ,and in fact refused to do so when confronted about this.  Most of his video's; now that he's run out of theories to lift from the forums and present as his own are just completely ridiculous.  He stretches and supposes until basically he's just talking nonsense.  

Out of all the prominent vloggers, bloggers, and pod-casters etc in the ASOIAF fandom, he is the one whom I have least respect for.  And I'll be honest when people cite him I tend to devalue their opinion too.  

Devastating as it will be for me to fall in your estimation, stranger on the internet, I don't think his theories are any more ridiculous than anybody else's, on this or any other forum; nor do I think anybody can seriously claim ownership of a theory about a story.

And he does credit the artists - and who gives a fuck if he didn't? It's just a goddamn youtube video.

Preston Jacobs just does not merit that much bile. So what's going on? My theory: fandom is fucking lame.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

Anyway, to the OP:

There are discussions on reddit you might wanna check out with regard to this latest video. Ceebs linking.

I think his observations about Doran and Oberyn's background are interesting and potentially game-changing... but most of the rest of the theory doesn't stack up for me:

• I still don't buy that the Brave Companions are Oberyn's sellsword company, or if they are, that Vargo Hoat is working for the Dornish. (The furthest I'll go is that it's possible some of the officers are.)
• I don't buy that anybody could've astroturfed a religious movement like that.
• Preston has Doran prepping the Kingsguard before Oberyn leaves Dorne - how could they possibly have predicted everything that would transpire between then and Cersei's trial?
• If it all comes down to putting Cersei in power and gaining leverage over her so she takes Dornish law national, then it's a pretty convoluted way to go about it.
• I take his point about 4 levels of justice, but I don't think he quite made the case that Oberyn wanted a more just system.
• I don't see how Marwyn and Sarella would know to target Lancel with visions - they'd have to read his mind to know that he killed Robert, and why would they pay him any attention without knowing that? It's a circular argument - unless Varys has told them.
• I'm still not sold that Qyburn's a Dornish agent.
• There was some other shit too, but I forgot

That said, I do think he's onto something with the Kingsguard prepping - it's just that it can't have started so early, nor can it be so essential to their overall plan. I think it's more likely that Doran realised he had an opportunity to influence events in King's Landing by timing the release of the news about Arys Oakheart. It all depends on the timeline - could Doran have learned about Cersei's arrest and Robert Strong before Balon Swann reaches Sunspear? - but if memory serves, we don't know enough to say for sure at this point.

And I think his analysis of Qyburn's whispers was superb, but what that adds up to, I'm not sure.

The only other problem with the theory is why Doran waited so long to set things in motion, but apparently he's got an explanation for that in future videos. Something to do with the comet.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

8 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

U jel?

Devastating as it will be for me to fall in your estimation, stranger on the internet, I don't think his theories are any more ridiculous than anybody else's, on this or any other forum; nor do I think anybody can seriously claim ownership of a theory about a story.

And he does credit the artists - and who gives a fuck if he didn't? It's just a goddamn youtube video.

Preston Jacobs just does not merit that much bile. So what's going on? My theory: fandom is fucking lame.

Well I tend to evaluate theories for actual likely hood based on what we are told through the text, literary references, historical events, literary analysis techniques, Influences the author has spoken about, etc. PJ just makes shit up though. When he isn't ripping off other fans hard work.

I  think when a specific person or group of persons has worked incredibly hard to actually dissect the story, research and cross check, sometimes spending days painstakingly piecing together, analysing text and looking for clues then hell yes they have a right to think of that theory as their own.  Obviously many theories in the fandom don't have known origins, but equally when you've hung around long enough you frequently do know who put all that work in. And when you do you credit them, that's just manners. I'm a believer in the Brightfyre theory and I usually credit Veltigar when talking about it, I'd certainly never dream of creating a Youtube video and presenting it as my own work.  And when making a video about say, a theory which is long standing and for whom you don't know who to credit, then say so. Don't present it in a manor which leaves the viewer assuming this is your work. Hell I've even seen naive people crediting PJ with R&L=J from having seen some early video made before he started going totally cuckoo and claiming stuff which simply doesn't fit with the timeline, make any sense narratively and relies upon calling the author a liar. 

Err I think the artists care!  And anyone with any semblance of respect for art, and the level of work which goes into creating a piece. And he has only begun crediting sporadically since having been pulled up on it by YOUTUBE precisely because what he was doing was unethical and against their rules. The entire debacle resulted in his fans sending a woman who was not even responsible for reporting him, but whom he implied he suspected was involved, rape and death threats too btw. 

 

[OuttaOldtown]

1 hour ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Half of the original video's he made were done using theories or at least major elements of them which he lifted from other fans.  Put simply he took a few long held theories and claimed them as his own.  He also uses artists work to make his video's without crediting them ,and in fact refused to do so when confronted about this.  Most of his video's; now that he's run out of theories to lift from the forums and present as his own are just completely ridiculous.  He stretches and supposes until basically he's just talking nonsense.  

Out of all the prominent vloggers, bloggers, and pod-casters etc in the ASOIAF fandom, he is the one whom I have least respect for.  And I'll be honest when people cite him I tend to devalue their opinion too.  

He builds megalithic structures in quicksand, his theories are awful, leap and leap of utter nonsense..

[Poupsi]

I enjoyed the last series so far, though I found he over-focused a little on Robert Strong. But coincidence, I was finishing a reread of ASOS, last sunday, and Tyrion's trial by battle.

I realized what an exposure and what an audience Oberyn got!!!

And that battle...

If indeed Oberyn sacrificed himself on purpose, whatever the reason, I hope it was for something GRAND.