Varys Did Not Intend for Tyrion to Kill Tywin

[chrisdaw]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not the full reason of it. Why do he and Illyrio subsequently send Tyrion to Aegon and Daenerys? They must have a reason for that.

Tyrion showed he had ability in ACOK. Varys saved Tyrion because Jaime put him in the position of having to save him or otherwise rock the boat in KL, and having decided to save him he decided he'd put him with Aegon because he'd probably prove useful to him, so why not?

Tyrion isn't some random loose cannon to Varys, he watched him work closely in ACOK. Then Illyrio took his measure at his manse, if he presented a threat to Aegon in their opinion then they'd have just slit his throat. But Illyrio saw an isolated, broken man for whom the only reason for living was revenge, and who in their power presented no threat, other than maybe to himself, that's what that ADWD chapter is about, Illyrio is considering Tyrion.

Had Tyrion not killed Tywin Illyrio still would have had that evaluation and he may have come to a different conclusion, and then throat slit, and it would have been no skin off anyone's nose.

[BricksAndSparrows]

I'd like to amend my previous statement. I don't think Varys orchestrated Tywin's murder. That's not to say that Varys didn't find himself in the tunnel with Tyrion and think:

"What the hell, lets swing by the tower of the hand, and see what happens."

But the suggestions that Vary's was working on Tyrion's murder before Jamie came and got him... no.

[Lost Melnibonean]

48 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Tyrion showed he had ability in ACOK. Varys saved Tyrion because Jaime put him in the position of having to save him or otherwise rock the boat in KL, and having decided to save him he decided he'd put him with Aegon because he'd probably prove useful to him, so why not?

Tyrion isn't some random loose cannon to Varys, he watched him work closely in ACOK. Then Illyrio took his measure at his manse, if he presented a threat to Aegon in their opinion then they'd have just slit his throat. But Illyrio saw an isolated, broken man for whom the only reason for living was revenge, and who in their power presented no threat, other than maybe to himself, that's what that ADWD chapter is about, Illyrio is considering Tyrion.

Had Tyrion not killed Tywin Illyrio still would have had that evaluation and he may have come to a different conclusion, and then throat slit, and it would have been no skin off anyone's nose.

Especially not Tyrion's!

BTW, You touch it with a needle. 

[Lord Varys]

40 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Tyrion showed he had ability in ACOK. Varys saved Tyrion because Jaime put him in the position of having to save him or otherwise rock the boat in KL, and having decided to save him he decided he'd put him with Aegon because he'd probably prove useful to him, so why not?

Varys arranged Tyrion's safe journey to Pentos very quickly and efficiently. It doesn't make any sense to assume that he wasn't prepared for that because he either foresaw Jaime would ask his assistance or because he intended to save the dwarf himself.

More importantly, the idea that Varys wasn't prepared to go underground at this time also makes little sense. The game was nearing its final stages with Aegon finally preparing to enter it, so the time came to take the gloves off, anyway. If Tyrion had not taken it upon himself to take out Tywin thanks to Varys' subtle clues Varys would have done so himself, then and there, to blame the deed on Tyrion.

40 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Tyrion isn't some random loose cannon to Varys, he watched him work closely in ACOK. Then Illyrio took his measure at his manse, if he presented a threat to Aegon in their opinion then they'd have just slit his throat. But Illyrio saw an isolated, broken man for whom the only reason for living was revenge, and who in their power presented no threat, other than maybe to himself, that's what that ADWD chapter is about, Illyrio is considering Tyrion.

That doesn't answer the question. What job could Tyrion do back in Westeros? He would be a dreadful Hand because of his reputation (which would be pretty much the same as Jaime's, perhaps even worse, because the man at least did not kill his nephew and father) just as he would be unacceptable as Lord of Casterly Rock. Assuming Tyrion has a chance to be a good Hand under any king is in the same category as assuming Walder Frey, Roose Bolton, Theon Greyjoy would ever be heralded as great heroes by the majority of the people of Westeros. That is not going to happen. The Targaryen loyalists might thank him for taking out Tywin but curse him for committing patricide and poisoning his poor nephew.

Even if we agree he was such a great administrator he is never going to be able to make good use of that ability in Westeros. Last time he was the twisted little monkey demon but the queen's brother, the king's uncle, and the son of the richest lord in the Realm. Now he is nothing and a convicted kingslayer. Nobody has any reason to love him, respect him, or obey him. If Dany or Aegon win the Iron Throne anyone would make a better Hand than Tyrion.

All he could do is make japes, complain, and give advice Connington, Varys, Illyrio, and Aegon could give each other, too. Speaking of which - Connington was going to be Aegon-Dany's Hand, certainly not Tyrion. 

40 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Had Tyrion not killed Tywin Illyrio still would have had that evaluation and he may have come to a different conclusion, and then throat slit, and it would have been no skin off anyone's nose.

The Tywin test showed Varys/Illyrio that the dwarf severed his ties to House Lannister forever but that doesn't mean he is of much use. We are not talking about stuff Tyrion might do in a scenario in which Aegon and company never team up with Dany. We are talking about his purpose in Varys and Illyrio's plan. And aside from a little dragonlore knowledge Tyrion simply has nothing to offer.

[chrisdaw]

Tyrion showed a good understanding of realm affairs and an ability to solve issues, hence useful. There doesn't need to be anything more than that, and there wasn't. He can advise Aegon on anything and everything in any capacity that they feel like giving him.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Tyrion showed a good understanding of realm affairs and an ability to solve issues, hence useful. There doesn't need to be anything more than that, and there wasn't. He can advise Aegon on anything and everything in any capacity that they feel like giving him.

But Aegon doesn't need such knowledge while he is still in Essos. And back in Westeros Tyrion will become a liability. 

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

6 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

Tyrion showed a good understanding of realm affairs and an ability to solve issues, hence useful. There doesn't need to be anything more than that, and there wasn't. He can advise Aegon on anything and everything in any capacity that they feel like giving him.

Exactly. Tyrion is clever, knows the business, and motivated. If I was planning on invading the 7K then I'd want Tyrion on my team. Yes, he's a bit of a PR liability, but that's the only drawback. 

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And back in Westeros Tyrion will become a liability. 

Maybe, maybe not. He "killed" Joffery and killed Tywin. Neither of those two were winning any popularity contests. 

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Maybe, maybe not. He "killed" Joffery and killed Tywin. Neither of those two were winning any popularity contests. 

Aerys wasn't that popular either, yet people still don't applaud or cherish his murderer. Joffrey was still a child and only the people closest to him knew his true nature. For the majority of Westeros he'll be the innocent victim of his evil uncle. Not to mention that the boy was his nephew. Neither Roose nor Walder or Theon ever murdered such close kin yet they are hated and despised, too.

And Tyrion adds to all this by murdering his own father. Who can trust a man who is twisted enough to kill his own father?

This adds another layer to the whole thing. There is no reason whatsoever that Daenerys Targaryen should trust this ugly man. He does neither look trustworthy (and looks are important) nor do his actions suggests that he is trustworthy person.

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Aerys wasn't that popular either, yet people still don't applaud or cherish his murderer. Joffrey was still a child and only the people closest to him knew his true nature. For the majority of Westeros he'll be the innocent victim of his evil uncle. Not to mention that the boy was his nephew. Neither Roose nor Walder or Theon ever murdered such close kin yet they are hated and despised, too.

And Tyrion adds to all this by murdering his own father. Who can trust a man who is twisted enough to kill his own father?

This adds another layer to the whole thing. There is no reason whatsoever that Daenerys Targaryen should trust this ugly man. He does neither look trustworthy (and looks are important) nor do his actions suggests that he is trustworthy person.

Anybody seen @Fire Eater?

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no reason whatsoever that Daenerys Targaryen should trust this ugly man. He does neither look trustworthy (and looks are important) nor do his actions suggests that he is trustworthy person.

True, but Tyrion can probably talk her into trusting him. Plus he killed Tywin, who Dany has every reason to hate. 

Spoiler

Plus, it looks like he's going to deliver the Second Sons back to her

I'd like to think that Dany is clever enough to recognise what a useful resource Tyrion could be. 

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

True, but Tyrion can probably talk her into trusting him. Plus he killed Tywin, who Dany has every reason to hate. 

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Plus, it looks like he's going to deliver the Second Sons back to her

I'd like to think that Dany is clever enough to recognise what a useful resource Tyrion could be. 

Sure, there is a chance of that happening. But considering that Tyrion is right now just some lonely dwarf making common cause with some traitors (Mormont and Brown Ben) it is not very likely that he'll be accepted in the inner circle of the queen. She might thank him for murdering Tywin and Joffrey but she is not obliged to trust him because he did something like that.

And honestly, Dany has no need of the Second Sons. She will have the Dothraki when she returns to Slaver's Bay and then it won't matter whether she has a few thousand sellswords more or less. Not to mention that the chances are pretty good that she would just execute Brown Ben. She will be able to do so and from her perspective the man deserves to die.

But we don't even know when Dany will return to Slaver's Bay. The Second Sons and Tyrion might be in completely different situation at that point. It might no longer matter that Tyrion has convinced the Second Sons to turn against the Yunkish allies.

My take on the whole thing that there has to be some connection between Tyrion and Dany that allows them to actual bond or connect to each other. 'Plot convenience' isn't enough for them to work together. Especially not in light of the fact that George did not only postpone the meeting between Dany and Tyrion but also deliberately write the story in a way in which Tyrion won't meet Dany in a position of strength. If he had showed up in Meereen with Aegon and the Golden Company she wouldn't have been in a position to easily reject him/them.

Right now it doesn't look as if Tyrion will end up in a position of strength. Especially not with all those Ghiscari/Essosi people who have basically no reason to care what an ugly dwarf has to say.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, there is a chance of that happening. But considering that Tyrion is right now just some lonely dwarf making common cause with some traitors (Mormont and Brown Ben) it is not very likely that he'll be accepted in the inner circle of the queen. She might thank him for murdering Tywin and Joffrey but she is not obliged to trust him because he did something like that.

True, but there's no reason for her to reject his help out of hand either. Dany has a history of accepting support from all sorts of people whose past is a bit dodgy. My thinking is that she will be able to recognise him as capable. His notoriety hasn't really spread to Slavers Bay yet. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

After Tyrion helps Brown Ben get up on that creamy dragon, Daenerys is going to appreciate the twisted little monkey demon. 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

True, but there's no reason for her to reject his help out of hand either. Dany has a history of accepting support from all sorts of people whose past is a bit dodgy. My thinking is that she will be able to recognise him as capable. His notoriety hasn't really spread to Slavers Bay yet. 

That story has traveled with him. And if he (or Jorah) did not tell her what he did she would just execute him for a Lannister spy. What else should she think of him if she does not know he has turned against his own family? That he wants to join her cause for no good reason?

The hint we get in Dany's last chapter is that she now enters into her no-nonsense approach to politics. The time she is going to see the best in everyone will be over.

52 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

After Tyrion helps Brown Ben get up on that creamy dragon, Daenerys is going to appreciate the twisted little monkey demon. 

Or she smiles, welcomes them, and has them treated like Ulf and Hugh as soon as Viserion is out of sight. And she should be both smarter and less craven than the Caltrops.

Or she proceeds to deal with Ben/Viserion the same way Maegor the Cruel dealt with Aegon and Quicksilver.

But then, I don't think Ben will ever rider a dragon. He is too craven for that.

[Lost Melnibonean]

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That story has traveled with him. And if he (or Jorah) did not tell her what he did she would just execute him for a Lannister spy. What else should she think of him if she does not know he has turned against his own family? That he wants to join her cause for no good reason?

The hint we get in Dany's last chapter is that she now enters into her no-nonsense approach to politics. The time she is going to see the best in everyone will be over.

Or she smiles, welcomes them, and has them treated like Ulf and Hugh as soon as Viserion is out of sight. And she should be both smarter and less craven than the Caltrops.

Or she proceeds to deal with Ben/Viserion the same way Maegor the Cruel dealt with Aegon and Quicksilver.

But then, I don't think Ben will ever rider a dragon. He is too craven for that.

At least you are are saying "or" instead of "that makes no sense."

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That story has traveled with him. And if he (or Jorah) did not tell her what he did she would just execute him for a Lannister spy. What else should she think of him if she does not know he has turned against his own family? That he wants to join her cause for no good reason?

Sorry, you misunderstand me, what I meant was that while the story would be known, the general Tyrion-hate which was so common in the 7K has not spread to Slavers Bay

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

@Lord Varys out of interest, what do you think will happen with Dany and Tyrion? It's seemed to me that Tyrion's entire story through ADWD was his travelling to link up with her, I don't really see where else his storyline can lead at this point. 

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Sorry, you misunderstand me, what I meant was that while the story would be known, the general Tyrion-hate which was so common in the 7K has not spread to Slavers Bay

That is true. However, Tyrion wasn't that much hated in Westeros while he was Hand  Only in KL. But the murders definitely would have ruined his reputation permanently.

14 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

@Lord Varys out of interest, what do you think will happen with Dany and Tyrion? It's seemed to me that Tyrion's entire story through ADWD was his travelling to link up with her, I don't really see where else his storyline can lead at this point. 

I really don't know. I thought Tyrion would meet and befriend Dany in ADwD as pretty much everybody else thought. But that didn't happen, and there is most likely a narrative reason as to why Tyrion never met and talked to Dany prior to her departure. And the Dany that's going to return from the Dothraki Sea will be a dragonrider and not exactly in a forgiving mood. Not to mention that Tyrion as George described him in ADwD was neither in the position nor in the mood to ever win Dany's trust and friendship.

We also don't know how long it takes until Dany returns or whether Tyrion and her other people (or some of them) will be still there, waiting for her. That will depend on how the story unfolds after the battle(s).

I expect Tyrion to become a dragonrider soon and I think that will coincide with the revelation (through Selmy) that Tyrion is Dany's bastard half-brother. That will mark the beginning of a new life for Tyrion as he reinvents himself as a Targaryen or at least as a Targaryen bastard. He might be happier with himself and his lot in life and actually begin to be invested in the Targaryen cause. ADwD indicates that he has a pretty good picture of Dany's character but it is completely unclear whether he wants to ally with her or try to use her for his own ends (whatever those might be). His suggestion to Aegon to go to Westeros now was presumably part of his plan to hurt Cersei and Jaime now that they are weak.

Then there is George's curious quote that Tyrion and Dany's stories will eventually intersect. That doesn't suggests that they are going to meet each other soon. If the Ironborn successfully steal a dragon and/or Tyrion becomes a dragonrider then quite a lot of Dany's people might reconsider their loyalty and decide to throw their lot in with those other magical guys, possibly leaving Slaver's Bay before she returns. And if Selmy proclaims Tyrion Dany's half-brother the dwarf might find himself in a position where he could claim the Iron Throne of Westeros himself. You have to keep in mind that the longer she doesn't return or does not send word to Meereen that she is alive the more people will believe she actually died or will never return.

But in the end I think Dany and Tyrion will join forces. But whether that's going to be on friendly terms or because they are forced to is unclear.

However, I'm pretty sure that Tyrion Lannister is not going to be able to amass any power among Dany's people. Tyrion Dragonrider might. And Tyrion Halfdragon most definitely.

[Fire Eater]

On 8/25/2016 at 8:54 AM, Lord Varys said:

Aerys wasn't that popular either, yet people still don't applaud or cherish his murderer. Joffrey was still a child and only the people closest to him knew his true nature. For the majority of Westeros he'll be the innocent victim of his evil uncle. Not to mention that the boy was his nephew. Neither Roose nor Walder or Theon ever murdered such close kin yet they are hated and despised, too.

And Tyrion adds to all this by murdering his own father. Who can trust a man who is twisted enough to kill his own father?

This adds another layer to the whole thing. There is no reason whatsoever that Daenerys Targaryen should trust this ugly man. He does neither look trustworthy (and looks are important) nor do his actions suggests that he is trustworthy person.

Regarding the trust issue, Tyrion could likely respond with something he once told Aegon: trust no one. I think he would give that same advice to Dany. Besides, if he helps to clean up Meereen by the time she arrives, she'll see his value. As Jon said, you don't need to trust someone to use them.