How did Varys convince jon connington that griff was Aegon?

[GhostNymeria]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

That is all possible. I'm just willing to take stuff like that for granted. I think there has to be some pretty good evidence/testimony/whatever that original convinced Connington which kept his doubts (if he had any) in check. If he had doubts than an explanation like yours could work to keep them in check but it doesn't explain why he originally decided to believe Varys of all people. Or why he thought the Golden Company was interested in a Targaryen restoration. I mean, the man served with the company since before the Sack. Surely the reaction among those men in the company with longstanding Black Dragon loyalties would have been rather cheerful when the false king Aerys and his son and grandchildren were butchered.

Yeah, you have a point. Conningtong isn't stupid. Could there be a chance that he is aware that it's not the real Aegon(if he isn't real)? We don't get anything like that from his POVs, so I guess that's pretty unlikely.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

But I think the cloth dragon vision refers to a false savior (just as the vision of the blue-eyed king without a shadow referred to Stannis Baratheon the false savior not Stannis Baratheon the false king) and in the savior business you can be the rightful king all day long. That doesn't mean that you going to save the world, though.

Who do you think the cloth dragon could be refferring to? The  "saviors" I could see in this story would be Jon, Bran, Daenerys herself and maybe Arya and Tyrion. I guess the cloth dragon could be reffering to Daenerys herself or Tyrion if he'll be a dragon rider. I have always presumed that it was FAegon because the undying called Dany "slayer of lies" when they showed that, along with the Stannis vision.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not to mention that it is ridiculous to believe that the Undying/magic/fate/destiny/whatever caused the glimpses of the future Dany saw actually has the correct answers about the deliberately unclear succession laws of Westeros.

Now that you mention it, I'm thinking that there's a possibillity that some of the visions the Undying showed to Dany could be done in purpose to manipulate her. Maybe Aegon is real, and the cloth dragon was just a vision to unfluence Dany's future actions. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Not sure why he has to die. Yeah, usually kings who are crowned die. But then, we don't know how vicious and brutal this Second Dance will become and both Dany and Aegon still might have enemies they should be unite against (Euron, Stannis, the Others). Aegon certainly could be killed, but he could also just be deposed, give up his claim, become a prisoner, or something else.

Yes you're right, he doesn't have to die in order for Grrm to dispose him from the crown. I agree that Aegon's and Dany's dance probably won't just be them fighting. I think they will be united at some point, either in the beginning, before they turn against each other, or at the end after the fighting.

[Ser Creighton]

11 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

It's different when you're raising the little bastards though. There are key landmarks a kid will pass at various stages in their development. 

 

I don't buy this. I kind of get the idea that Connington might be in denial because he desperately wants to make up his failure to Rhaegar (although I don't buy it), but I really don't think he would knowingly (or subliminally) pass Aegon off as Rhaegar's son. That would be a posthumous insult to a man he loved. 

Well if you are doing it subliminally you wouldn't know. That is why it is subliminal. I don't think he would knowingly do it, but I think his judgment is clouded. It's well pointed out in the quotes that Jon has some anger issues as well as vengeance issues. He also seems to feel he never got over his failure and it's very clear he holds onto the past which he says he let go of but continues to think back upon and speaks about making it right. 

The question always comes back to proof, and the proof given to the reader is the story Vary's gives, and a baby who could just as easily be from several parts of Essos, Valyrian looks not being uncommon on Lys. Maybe this person or that person gave it to them, or maybe they were hired. Maybe he is a Targaryen, but that does not make him Rhaegar's son either. 

JonCon has not demonstrated all that much other than what he wishes to achieve. He may have been given some sort of proof but who knows how valid that could of been. What if it is really not much more than the story and a baby? He does not seem to trust Varys but seems to trust him when it is something he wants. Oh he will make Vary's pay for those words after Vary's puts Aegon on the throne? Yeah you are welcome ego, Jesus. Dudes got issues.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, GhostNymeria said:

Yeah, you have a point. Conningtong isn't stupid. Could there be a chance that he is aware that it's not the real Aegon(if he isn't real)? We don't get anything like that from his POVs, so I guess that's pretty unlikely.

I think he is definitely not consciously aware that the boy isn't Rhaegar's son if that's the case. However, he might have noticed things and he cannot put his finger on them yet. I very much doubt he would have entered the game had he suspected Aegon wasn't Rhaegar's son from the start. But then - he would have been skeptical in the beginning considering his history with Varys. So we arrive again at the point where it is clear that Varys/Illyrio must have provided him with some evidence that they were not trying to fuck with him.

3 hours ago, GhostNymeria said:

Who do you think the cloth dragon could be refferring to? The  "saviors" I could see in this story would be Jon, Bran, Daenerys herself and maybe Arya and Tyrion. I guess the cloth dragon could be reffering to Daenerys herself or Tyrion if he'll be a dragon rider. I have always presumed that it was FAegon because the undying called Dany "slayer of lies" when they showed that, along with the Stannis vision.

Oh, I think the cloth dragon refers to Aegon. That is pretty obvious. But the mummer's dragon thing does not have to mean 'fake dragon' it also can mean 'the dragon of the mummer', i.e. Varys' dragon. The lie Dany is going to slay is that Aegon - regardless whether he is Rhaegar's son or Illyrio's son - is simply not the promised prince.

I think the prophecy of the promised prince and the three dragon heads refer to a trinity of saviors/heroes (or a hero/savior with three faces) all of which are Targaryen descendants. Dany is the core part of it, the promised princess (the one who was born amidst smoke and salt, whose birth was heralded by a storm, whose spell to wake dragons from stone was heralded and proclaimed by the bleeding star, etc.) who is already searching for the other two dragon heads to form her trinity. Those would be Jon Snow (as Rhaegar's son by Elia) and Tyrion (as Aerys' son by Joanna). All of them most likely will become dragonriders during the course of the story (although not necessarily the only dragonriders).

Bran definitely will become a core hero, too. But I don't think he was the topic of the promised prince prophecy. But he might be still be even more important than the other heroes.

3 hours ago, GhostNymeria said:

Now that you mention it, I'm thinking that there's a possibillity that some of the visions the Undying showed to Dany could be done in purpose to manipulate her. Maybe Aegon is real, and the cloth dragon was just a vision to unfluence Dany's future actions. 

That would be strange because those visions and prophecies gave clues both to Dany and the reader. But it is certainly not impossible. However, my guess is that the reason the Undying wanted to drink Dany's life in the first place was her special 'magical destiny'. It seems to me that what made her so interesting to them was the magical potential inside her and the things she was destined to do. They seem to live off the life force of others and perhaps people who would accomplish great things if they had not met the Undying make for very fine and tasty meals. Thus I think they actually showed her the truth of her destiny both as a distraction as well as to fun of her.

[Trigger Warning]

Vary's said a kid with Targ features was the son of Jon Con's husbando that he feels he failed. 

Pretty easy to convince him really. 

[The Ice Wolf of Loki]

15 hours ago, GhostNymeria said:

I don't want to go completely off topic with this discussion, but I can't resist to add some extra facts . The average age for onset of puberty in girls have rapidly been dropping since the 1920's, probably due to diet, fat and chemicals. Ok I'm done now.

Yes, but Nephews are male, that's where the medical marvel comes in.

The word you were probably looking for was Niece. 

[GhostNymeria]

2 hours ago, The Ice Wolf of Loki said:

Yes, but Nephews are male, that's where the medical marvel comes in.

The word you were probably looking for was Niece. 

Oh Yeah, that was the word I was looking for. 

[Whitering]

On 8/22/2016 at 1:46 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I think the reason the Tattered Prince has been brought into the story is as a reason for Dany to head back to Pentos so we can get resolution on this issue from Ilyrio.  Why else write in the Tattered Prince demanding Pentos from Barristan.  There has to be a connection.  George said he had a Mereneese knot that was hard to resolve.  Part of that knot could've been getting Dany to Pentos when there are forces pulling her to Westeros.

And what would Illyrio say except to Barristan and Dany that him and Varys had saved Aegon from his enemies? He will never say anything different no matter what the Tattered Prince does or says.

[Lost Melnibonean]

On 8/22/2016 at 4:46 PM, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I think the reason the Tattered Prince has been brought into the story is as a reason for Dany to head back to Pentos so we can get resolution on this issue from Ilyrio.  Why else write in the Tattered Prince demanding Pentos from Barristan.  There has to be a connection.  George said he had a Mereneese knot that was hard to resolve.  Part of that knot could've been getting Dany to Pentos when there are forces pulling her to Westeros.

And Braavos? And Volantis? Tyrosh? 

[Prince of the North]

I'm sure it's been mentioned upthread but JonCon thinks to himself that he "failed the father but he won't fail the son" or something like that.  It's simple, he sees fAegon (I think he's fake) as his shot at redemption.

[bent branch]

On ‎8‎/‎23‎/‎2016 at 1:10 AM, GhostNymeria said:

Yes I agree with this. It's not a leap of logic that you can't see the difference between a four-year-old and a six-year-old, especially when you don't have any kids of your own. And I say this as a preschool teacher (in my country children can go to preschool between the ages of 1 to 6). 

As someone who works with children do you think it is possible to get a child to reliably lie about the age? I don't think either a four-year-old or a six-year-old would be able to lie about their age. Most children know how old they are from 2 onwards. You could probably get at child to lie about their age in occasional meetings. But once you place that child full time in someone's care, they are at some point going to slip up and tell their true age. This is really the biggest reason you need a child the same age if you're going to place them that young.

[Lost Melnibonean]

8 minutes ago, bent branch said:

As someone who works with children do you think it is possible to get a child to reliably lie about the age? I don't think either a four-year-old or a six-year-old would be able to lie about their age. Most children know how old they are from 2 onwards. You could probably get at child to lie about their age in occasional meetings. But once you place that child full time in someone's care, they are at some point going to slip up and tell their true age. This is really the biggest reason you need a child the same age if you're going to place them that young.

If I told my 3 year old daughter she was four, she would believe me. If I had told her she was four since she was two, she would believe she's five now. And if I had been telling her that her name was Daenerys, and thar her mum was a Spanish princess, she would believe that too. 

[bent branch]

17 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

If I told my 3 year old daughter she was four, she would believe me. If I had told her she was four since she was two, she would believe she's five now. And if I had been telling her that her name was Daenerys, and thar her mum was a Spanish princess, she would believe that too. 

Sorry, I'm one of eight children, I am a mom, and a grandmother. I have and have had many children in my life and none of them mistake their age. As you say a child can be fooled, but only if you strictly control their environment. This would mean they have no contact with anyone who is telling them any different (and that is assuming that the four-year-old is advanced for their age). The biggest problem with the whole Young Griff is younger than he appears is that some people think children are stupid little animals who don't understand their environment. Nothing can be further from the truth.

[Lost Melnibonean]

25 minutes ago, bent branch said:

Sorry, I'm one of eight children, I am a mom, and a grandmother. I have and have had many children in my life and none of them mistake their age. As you say a child can be fooled, but only if you strictly control their environment. This would mean they have no contact with anyone who is telling them any different (and that is assuming that the four-year-old is advanced for their age). The biggest problem with the whole Young Griff is younger than he appears is that some people think children are stupid little animals who don't understand their environment. Nothing can be further from the truth.

I agree 100 percent. 

[GhostNymeria]

7 hours ago, bent branch said:

As someone who works with children do you think it is possible to get a child to reliably lie about the age? I don't think either a four-year-old or a six-year-old would be able to lie about their age. Most children know how old they are from 2 onwards. You could probably get at child to lie about their age in occasional meetings. But once you place that child full time in someone's care, they are at some point going to slip up and tell their true age. This is really the biggest reason you need a child the same age if you're going to place them that young.

I didn't think about that. Yes you're right, a four-year-old probably going to slip up eventually, but I guess it depends on the situation. If Jon and other people would continuously ask him about his age, then he would probably slip up. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

14 hours ago, GhostNymeria said:

I didn't think about that. Yes you're right, a four-year-old probably going to slip up eventually, but I guess it depends on the situation. If Jon and other people would continuously ask him about his age, then he would probably slip up. 

Only if he believed he was younger. If he'd been isolated from other children in a Pentoshi manse and been led to believe he was two years older than he was since birth, and if he was then isolated on a poleboat with folks who believed he was two years older than he was or were committed to the lie, why would he ever question it, much less slip up? 

[Masha]

 

8 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Only if he believed he was younger. If he'd been isolated from other children in a Pentoshi manse and been led to believe he was two years older than he was since birth, and if he was then isolated on a poleboat with folks who believed he was two years older than he was or were committed to the lie, why would he ever question it, much less slip up? 

Most likely he was isolated from all other children, especially if he was son of Illyrio. He would have only seen Illyrio, Varys and loyal servants. So if the first time the child is aware of himself and of notion of time enough to ask what age he is - and he is told that he is two years older than he actually is, why wouldn't he believe it? After all, most children are not clear about what happened before the moment they achieved that level of awareness. After that he would just add up time and wouldn't need to lie. 

While there is a disagreement among readers whether he is real Aegon son of Rhaegar or fAegon Blackfyre, nobody here disputes that the boy himself truthfully believes himself to be Aegon son of Rhaegar and is not aware of Illyrio and Varys connections to Blackfyre. He is just as much a victim of Illyrio and Varys plot as JonCon is 

 

 

[GhostNymeria]

22 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Only if he believed he was younger. If he'd been isolated from other children in a Pentoshi manse and been led to believe he was two years older than he was since birth, and if he was then isolated on a poleboat with folks who believed he was two years older than he was or were committed to the lie, why would he ever question it, much less slip up? 

I was going by the scenario that he knew his real age before, growing up. But you're right, if adults told him he turned three when he really turned one and so on, he would think he was that age, no doubt about it. I don't think he would need to be isolated from other children for that to work either, as long it was a parental figure who he trusted and felt safe with that told him that lie. Children aren't stupid of course, but like just like their name and gender, a child's age is one of the earliest things they incorporate to their identity. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Masha said:

 

Most likely he was isolated from all other children, especially if he was son of Illyrio. He would have only seen Illyrio, Varys and loyal servants. So if the first time the child is aware of himself and of notion of time enough to ask what age he is - and he is told that he is two years older than he actually is, why wouldn't he believe it? After all, most children are not clear about what happened before the moment they achieved that level of awareness. After that he would just add up time and wouldn't need to lie. 

While there is a disagreement among readers whether he is real Aegon son of Rhaegar or fAegon Blackfyre, nobody here disputes that the boy himself truthfully believes himself to be Aegon son of Rhaegar and is not aware of Illyrio and Varys connections to Blackfyre. He is just as much a victim of Illyrio and Varys plot as JonCon is 

 

 

There are a few who believe that Aegon knows he is a fake. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

On August 25, 2016 at 5:24 PM, Lost Melnibonean said:

And Braavos? And Volantis? Tyrosh? 

Why would she go to Bravos or Tyrosh?

[aryagonnakill#2]

On August 25, 2016 at 2:56 PM, Whitering said:

And what would Illyrio say except to Barristan and Dany that him and Varys had saved Aegon from his enemies? He will never say anything different no matter what the Tattered Prince does or says.

Ilyrio doesn't necessarily need to confess, and there is nothing saying he won't.  Tyrion and Tatters could paint a pretty clear picture.  If Tatters knows who Ilyro's famous ancestor was, and if that person was a Blackfyre, and/or if he knows who Ilyrio married/ that they had a kid, there would not be much room for doubt left.  Combine that with Tyrion hearing Ilyrio's comment about the color of dragons and the look on his face when he didn't get to see Aegon and the clothes in Ilyrio's Mance + Danys visions and warnings from Quaithe.  They only have to convince Dany, and pointing out that Aegon was always Ilyrio's #1 plan should get her in the right mood.  Then in the situation where he has lost, maybe he confesses for the readers, maybe he doesn't.

I would simply ask to everyone dismissing this, why else has the Tattered Prince and his Pentos storyline been added to an already bloated story?  Maybe they don't go to Pentos to Interogate Ilyrio, maybe Tatters simply tells them about Ilyrio's ancestor or his wife/son, the point is he has to be there for a reason.