Dany's War Machine

[Curled Finger]

It may really be time to consider Dany actually returning to Westeros.   I personally think she will split her homecoming up and enter from more than one location.   She does have dragons and Dragonstone would be a perfect place for her and anyone else riding along with her to land 1^st.   I doubt the dragons will be traveling by ship and hope there are 3 riders by the time she sets out.    Makes sense to send some of the fleet to Cape Wrath and some to Dorne.   Unless she gets intel indicating these would be bad places for these troops to land.    If I was Dany I would want to gather my forces before the blitzkrieg.   If there are 2 other dragon riders Blackwater Bay is by no means an unthinkable landing point.   It’s entirely possible Aegon will have succeeded in securing The Stormlands, Dorne and Kings Landing (possibly the Reach) by this point.   I figure she’s got close to 100,000 people (and roughly 50,000 horses) to cart over.   She will definitely require more than the Iron Born Fleet so we may anticipate additional campaigns prior to her return—unless her plan is to conquer all of Essos and Westeros. 

I gather the Unsullied are perfect soldiers.   Flawlessly obedient and fearless.  Still, they’ve spent a year or so as “free men”.   I wonder how they will perceive warring in a free land against free people.   The Dothraki are tougher.    Would they even really get on ships to fight for Dany far from their homes?   They are invaders, slavers, pillagers and worse.    Even with a powerful and fearsome leader like Khal Drogo they fought amongst themselves and rebelled.    Essentially extortionists, what can Dany really do to secure their loyalty in this most unique war?  The Freed Slaves face much the same dilemma as the Unsullied without their battle prowess.    Sellswords are notoriously unfaithful as well as ruthless and brutal.   Do 2 wanted knights add anything at all to Dany’s campaign?  Even with the Iron Born Fleet and whatever other navies (Volantine, Yunkish…) she’s able to enlist face Aurane Waters and every pirate between Essos and Westeros as well as Euron’s force.   

I’m sure I’ve missed other interesting groups compiling Dany’s menagerie of an army and navy.  Seems her air force may be her greatest strength provided she actually finds 2 other dragon riders before landing.    I’m not so sure Rhaegal and Viserion will be the happy go along to get along side kicks to Drogon that we saw in the show.    I’m not even sure they will be loving on their mother that much if she ever shows up for them.      I don’t know of any creature that enjoys captivity.  Perhaps they will enjoy charring Aegon's elephants?  

How do you see Dany’s invasion of Westeros coming off?    Will the entirety of her might land in 1 place, ships, dragons and all?   Will the Dothraki survive the voyage?   What do you see the Unsullied and Freed Men thinking of this war among free folk?    Are pirates likely to join her cause?   Does she use stealth or just annihilate everything in her path.    What could the Dothraki be assigned to actually do?  What will her Westerosi loyalists think of her war machine?  

[Targaryen Restoration]

I don't think Dany will take all of the Dothraki.  She will take the Unsullied and perhaps 20000 Dothraki cavalry.  It is hard to transport people across that great distance.  Most of her support will come from some of the nobles who are unhappy with the Lannisters and the Starks, the War of the Five Kings. 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

24 minutes ago, Targaryen Restoration said:

Most of her support will come from some of the nobles who are unhappy with the Lannisters and the Starks, the War of the Five Kings

Those Westerosi will be ok  with Dany's savages to pillage and rape them during LN2.0?

[Dex drako]

I see her pulling a what the mongols tryed to pull on Japan with one large invasion force of most is not all of her forces. (it would also be interesting if GRRM has the same thing happen and most of dany's ships getting destroyed by a storm en route) she'll land south of kinglanding and burn her way north as there is no stealth in her plan just blood and fire.

I don't see her getting many westerosi houses or even small folk to back her, these aren't the slaves and masters shes used to dealing with. and so her time in essos is going to leave her completely unprepared in how to deal with them.  
 

1 hour ago, Targaryen Restoration said:

  Most of her support will come from some of the nobles who are unhappy with the Lannisters and the Starks, the War of the Five Kings. 

this is the biggest joke really.

danny's not going to find westeros as welcoming to her as Essos was and its totally going to blow her mind. after all Dany is used too being seen as the god live Savior that there is no way westeros is going to be that. its the mummers dragon the people of westeros will like not the real dragon.

[Curled Finger]

Thanks so much for replying.   I was so sad no one wanted to talk about this.   

1 hour ago, Targaryen Restoration said:

I don't think Dany will take all of the Dothraki.  She will take the Unsullied and perhaps 20000 Dothraki cavalry.  It is hard to transport people across that great distance.  Most of her support will come from some of the nobles who are unhappy with the Lannisters and the Starks, the War of the Five Kings. 

We are being led to believe she's amassing this force.   I think she does have to leave a presence in Slavers Bay to enforce her will...um that is if there is a Slavers Bay left after the Battle of Fire.   But I think she really does have to bring a real force with her.   Not 10,000 either.   I think she's got to be able to meet the 50-60,000 some of the Westerosi Lords can muster.   I think she's got 20-30,000 just in Mereen.   If she's able to raise the Dothraki for her, great.   But can she really take them to Westeros?   Even your 20,000 Dothraki makes her army viable if my estimate is close.   

I agree, it is hard to transport a mass like that.   And she's got to get ships from somewhere as the Iron Born simply don't have enough.  Maybe another conquest.   Or something.  

The homecoming is fascinating.   Could go any of many ways.   Aegon holds out for her and offers alliance prior to her arrival, Dorne holds out for her instead of joining Aegon...lots of possibilities.    I wonder about this because there are Targ loyalists in Westeros and as you say, there are those ready to join anyone willing to depose those pesky Lannisters or Aegon or even Stannis.  (By the time she gets there at any rate.)  All I see being remotely intact by that time is perhaps the Vale, if they manage to stay out of everything.  

Sorry, I've got so many conflicting scenarios running around my imagination.   Really, thanks for your thoughts. 

[Curled Finger]

1 hour ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Those Westerosi will be ok  with Dany's savages to pillage and rape them during LN2.0?

Come on JQC, I get the feeling you do see the problem with the Dothraki.    Do you think they will really come over? 

[Curled Finger]

32 minutes ago, Dex drako said:

I see her pulling a what the mongols tryed to pull on Japan with one large invasion force of most is not all of her forces. (it would also be interesting if GRRM has the same thing happen and most of dany's ships getting destroyed by a storm en route) she'll land south of kinglanding and burn her way north as there is no stealth in her plan just blood and fire.

I don't see her getting many westerosi houses or even small folk to back her, these aren't the slaves and masters shes used to dealing with. and so her time in essos is going to leave her completely unprepared in how to deal with them.  
 

this is the biggest joke really.

danny's not going to find westeros as welcoming to her as Essos was and its totally going to blow her mind. after all Dany is used too being seen as the god live Savior that there is no way westeros is going to be that. its the mummers dragon the people of westeros will like not the real dragon.

Maybe.   If the Others or wights have shown up south before she comes, I think those dragons could be very welcome...or not.   I thought there would be a mass landing in a single strike area, but then I got to pondering 3 dragons and at least 1 other potential rider in Tyrion.   Divide and conquer?   

I think it's possible she may have some local support if she doesn't go in all blood and fire everywhere.   And if Aegon's done good things in the Targ name.  Sort of paves the way.   After all, he knows about her and if we believe he took Tyrion's advice to heart, he's doing this to prove his worth to her.  

I did enjoy your Mongols in Japan scenario.   Very nice.   

[The North Forgot]

One thing that makes me lean towards her splitting up her force is the logistics of it, how are you gonna supply let's say an army of 60-70k with no land-based supply-line of food etc? Sure the smaller armies of for instance 20-30k each can join up later when she has conquered enough land to provide for such a big army but even the thought of her landing in a single location with 70k or even more is just ridiculus to me.

[Curled Finger]

36 minutes ago, The North Forgot said:

One thing that makes me lean towards her splitting up her force is the logistics of it, how are you gonna supply let's say an army of 60-70k with no land-based supply-line of food etc? Sure the smaller armies of for instance 20-30k each can join up later when she has conquered enough land to provide for such a big army but even the thought of her landing in a single location with 70k or even more is just ridiculus to me.

You bring up an excellent point about food.  War in the Stormlands.   War in the Reach, the greatest food producer in the realm incidentally.   The Riverlands are ravaged, the Crownlands were already short on food supplies and the North is already freezing.    That leaves Dorne, the Vale and the Westerlands.   Problem as I see it is she's coming in from the east which should cause her to land (all her landings) along the west coast.    Maybe the war machine will come in waves then?  

[Jon's Queen Consort]

6 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Come on JQC, I get the feeling you do see the problem with the Dothraki.    Do you think they will really come over? 

I mostly agree with you Dany's army is too big in order to move with ships, I am not sure about the numbers, maybe there will need more than one trip in order to move all of them. I don't actually believe that all the Dothraki will follow Dany no matter how they feel about her. They are afraid of the sea and the fact that a lady with silver hair and three baby dragons order them to do it will not change that. I believe that they will create such havoc in Essos where they will start to assemble that the Free cities will actually pay her in ships in order to get rid of her.

For me it’s not the moving her biggest problem, the problem is what happens next. The most difficult part of Dany’s *plan* which she hasn’t yet, is how she is going to control her army? Once they arrive in Westeros they will start pillaging, stealing and raping like they always do.  They will be free to destroy an already torn apart Westeros while the winter would have come in the entire Westeros.  Also during the winter what will happen with her army? When there is no more food what they will do?

[Curled Finger]

4 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I mostly agree with you Dany's army is too big in order to move with ships, I am not sure about the numbers, maybe there will need more than one trip in order to move all of them. I don't actually believe that all the Dothraki will follow Dany no matter how they feel about her. They are afraid of the sea and the fact that a lady with silver hair and three baby dragons order them to do it will not change that. I believe that they will create such havoc in Essos where they will start to assemble that the Free cities will actually pay her in ships in order to get rid of her.

For me it’s not the moving her biggest problem, the problem is what happens next. The most difficult part of Dany’s *plan* which she hasn’t yet, is how she is going to control her army? Once they arrive in Westeros they will start pillaging, stealing and raping like they always do.  They will be free to destroy an already torn apart Westeros while the winter would have come in the entire Westeros.  Also during the winter what will happen with her army? When there is no more food what they will do?

Exactly and well said.   Is there any hope the Unsullied, dragons, sellswords or knights will be able to keep the Dothraki in check?   I wonder if Dany gets so far as to enlist the Dothraki if there is any hope at all they will act within any rules of civil engagement (such as war is possible of attaining.)  Unless her attitudes and ideas change drastically between where we last saw her and arrival in Westeros Dany doesn't appear to be able to manage this effort.   I suppose any number of things could happen.   As I reread the last of your statement it occurs to me that perhaps the Dothraki could be useful in bringing Euron's Iron born to heel?   Vale Mountain Clans?   The Dothraki simply appear to be the land mines in all of this, but I don't know where other factions or people could be enlisted to help in the effort.   

[Lord Vance II]

Dany's potential invasion makes me fear for Westeros. 

The death and destruction wrought by Dany's invasion has the possibility to make the War of 5 Kings look like a skirmish. She's assembled the most violent, disdainful army the common Westerosi could dream up...Dothraki raiders, Ironborn, Eunice slave soldiers (as far as they're concerned) and freakin' dragons. 

There are no slaves to free. The small folk have no reason to support her. She offers nothing but another, worse cycle of fire and blood. She's made every noble house of Westeros her enemy, why would they join her? Dorne might I guess, but if they do so what? They have an decent force, but to hit anywhere else you either have to get back on ships or cross the Red Mountains. 

On 8/21/2016 at 1:49 PM, Curled Finger said:

I gather the Unsullied are perfect soldiers.   Flawlessly obedient and fearless.

Obediant, sure. But fear keeps you alive. Plus they are relatively lightly armored, knights would shred through them. I think she would keep them very close. 

On 8/21/2016 at 1:49 PM, Curled Finger said:

  Essentially extortionists, what can Dany really do to secure their loyalty in this most unique war? 

My problem with her Dothraki army, besides fearing for Westeros, is that they have no incentive. I don't doubt they would go...but are they just going to win and go home? They'll want something. She can't give them land in Westeros. So wealth? Would she let them head home with fortunes of her own peoples riches? When the crown is still buried in debt?

I think Aegon is going to land, win over a few houses and say "Yo, this b*tch is coming and we need to be ready, rally around me." The best chance to beat her, in my opinion, would be an all out, fairly suicidal naval attack to try to destroy as much as possible, or be able to strike right a she lands, wherever that is. The Dragons are strong and terrifying, but you cant occupy a vast continent with three dragons.

Am I biased against Dany, you bet. But only because I just don't see her being a good thing for Westeros. Nothing to offer but more fire and blood. 

[Protagoras]

Daenerys has enough to start her campaign but will need troops in Westeros to win. I am guessing she will have something like 10000-30000 Dothraki, 5000 unsullied, 5000 free fighting men and 2 dragons, but I could see her have even less. Maybe even 10000 all in all at worst case. 

What she needs is allies in Westeros. Luckily, she will get the support from the nobles out of current favor and who longs for revenge (most likely from those that got crushed by Aegon). Recruiting from the losing side seems to work well in Westeros since the nobles are bad at sucking it up to the new leaders and have a strong culture of Revanchism.

So, I am seeing her getting support from Westerlands and The Reach - because I think that they will be beaten pretty badly by Aegon and will long for revenge after JonCons brutal treatment of them. Her troops can´t rape and pillage her own side and their land but I doubt her future allies cares if say Riverlands or Stormlands suffers some extra rape & pillage. I certainly wouldn´t if I were them. 

[The Fattest Leech]

6 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

Dany's potential invasion makes me fear for Westeros. 

The death and destruction wrought by Dany's invasion has the possibility to make the War of 5 Kings look like a skirmish. She's assembled the most violent, disdainful army the common Westerosi could dream up...Dothraki raiders, Ironborn, Eunice slave soldiers (as far as they're concerned) and freakin' dragons. 

There are no slaves to free. The small folk have no reason to support her. She offers nothing but another, worse cycle of fire and blood. She's made every noble house of Westeros her enemy, why would they join her? Dorne might I guess, but if they do so what? They have an decent force, but to hit anywhere else you either have to get back on ships or cross the Red Mountains. 

Obediant, sure. But fear keeps you alive. Plus they are relatively lightly armored, knights would shred through them. I think she would keep them very close. 

My problem with her Dothraki army, besides fearing for Westeros, is that they have no incentive. I don't doubt they would go...but are they just going to win and go home? They'll want something. She can't give them land in Westeros. So wealth? Would she let them head home with fortunes of her own peoples riches? When the crown is still buried in debt?

I think Aegon is going to land, win over a few houses and say "Yo, this b*tch is coming and we need to be ready, rally around me." The best chance to beat her, in my opinion, would be an all out, fairly suicidal naval attack to try to destroy as much as possible, or be able to strike right a she lands, wherever that is. The Dragons are strong and terrifying, but you cant occupy a vast continent with three dragons.

Am I biased against Dany, you bet. But only because I just don't see her being a good thing for Westeros. Nothing to offer but more fire and blood. 

Oh gods this is so true and I could not have said it better myself... even though I often try. Let me highlight what is the best and most honest parts... There. Done

[SeanF]

Assuming that the essence of the Show is correct, then she'll return to Westeros with Ironborn, sellswords, Dothraki, and the Unsullied.  I expect that in the book, a revolution in Volantis will work in her favour, and maybe she'll take Pentos along the way (Ser Barristan has promised Pentos to the Tattered Prince, in return for switching sides, and Pentos would be a very useful base from which to attack Westeros).  Potentially, she'll have immense forces at her disposal, but the logistics of transporting them would be formidably difficult.  Still, there's no reason she wouldn't be able to bring the sort of army and navy that the Ottomans brought to the Siege of Malta (say 30,000 soldiers on 300 ships).

30,000, even with the backing of Eastern reinforcements, isn't enough to win, so she'll need allies in Westeros.  Who will they be?  My guess is that by the time she arrives, The Golden Company and the Dornish will be in charge at Kings Landing.  Aegon will be crowned King, and not disposed to sharing his Throne with Daenerys, and she in turn, will view him as a fraud.   Cersei, Jaime, Tommen, Margaery, Mace, et al may or may not still be alive, but I expect the Lannisters and Tyrells will still have forces at their disposal. So, I imagine they (and other dispossessed Houses) is where she'll be looking for allies.  The War of the Five Kings has dispossessed thousands of landowners, and anyone who's down on their luck will look to Dany to restore their fortunes.

[theblackdragonI]

I think a lot of people are forgetting the current numbers of actual soldiers left in Westeros at the moment. 

The North under the Boltons can barely muster more than 6-10k, which will soon be involved in fighting against Stannis (who has even less) and however many Nights Watch and wildlings survive the massacre at the Wall.

The Riverlands has been virtually destroyed, with only the Freys and Mallisters being capable of marshalling any troops.

The Vale and Dorne have managed to retain all their troops.

The Iron Islands couldn't have more than 5-8k after losing so much men trying to hold the North and sending the Iron Fleet to Meeren.

With Jaime missing, Tyrion in exile and Kevan dead, there is no clear leader of House Lannister to rally their scattered armies. I'd imagine an invasion from the Vale or Dorne would be able to defeat the remaining Lannister armies (if there was no help from the Reach), as the Lannisters are scattered and significantly weakened after the WOTFK.

The Reach still command the largest armies and fleet which like their land has remained relatively untouched by war. However, with Euron's invasion in the south, the Reach has been forced to split their forces, and with all the chaos in KL it's not clear if the Reach will continue to support the Lannister. Margary has been married three times already, maybe they could be swayed by a marriage offer to Aegon? The Tyrells were loyalists after all. 

The remaining Stormlords who could actually muster men, may flock to Aegon if he takes Storm's End with Jon Connington, or maybe to Red Ronnet? 

To sum up, the remaining Westerosi forces are divided and weakened at this moment. It's highly unlikely they'll be able to unite against Dany or Aegon or both. Dany's biggest problem is keeping together her forces and keeping supplied. She doesn't want to land divided like Aegon, or scatter her fleet like Victarion. I can see Dany flying to Dragonstone immediately on her Drogon, she would be drawn to her birthplace and ancestral home. I can imagine GRRM writing a chapter with Dany and her captains at the Painted Table, planning their conquest. 

[Dex drako]

I don't Dany army will need much of a sappy chain.

dothraki are locust they feed off of whatever they're attacking which is an advantage for her but will do more damage to westeros.
 

1 hour ago, theblackdragonI said:

To sum up, the remaining Westerosi forces are divided and weakened at this moment. It's highly unlikely they'll be able to unite against Dany or Aegon or both.

 except that's why Jon exists, he's the person everyone unite behind.

[theblackdragonI]

1 hour ago, Dex drako said:

I don't Dany army will need much of a sappy chain.

dothraki are locust they feed off of whatever they're attacking which is an advantage for her but will do more damage to westeros.
 

 except that's why Jon exists, he's the person everyone unite behind.

How do you expect her to ferry her army to Westeros? If she goes by sea she'll have to keep stopping for supplies, if by land she'll have to march across all of Essos and she might choose to liberate the Free Cities then. I can't see her bringing a huge Dothraki horde, only a small portion will come I think. The southern houses won't get behind Jon

[kimim]

2 hours ago, theblackdragonI said:

To sum up, the remaining Westerosi forces are divided and weakened at this moment. It's highly unlikely they'll be able to unite against Dany or Aegon or both. Dany's biggest problem is keeping together her forces and keeping supplied. She doesn't want to land divided like Aegon, or scatter her fleet like Victarion. I can see Dany flying to Dragonstone immediately on her Drogon, she would be drawn to her birthplace and ancestral home. I can imagine GRRM writing a chapter with Dany and her captains at the Painted Table, planning their conquest. 

This. GRRM delayed Dany's return to the point where Westeros is almost ridiculously weak while Dany is almost ridiculously strong.

Also: Grrm's got two more novels, and I don't see her landing in Westeros any time soon in Winds. That doesn't give him enough time to work through a long, complicated war against Dany. Either Dany's defeated quickly and thoroughly, which I can't see given Westeros and given all she has, or she wins fast enough to give GRRM time to develop the war against the Walkers.

[Clegane'sPup]

On 8/21/2016 at 1:49 PM, Curled Finger said:

How do you see Dany’s invasion of Westeros coming off?    Will the entirety of her might land in 1 place, ships, dragons and all?   Will the Dothraki survive the voyage?   What do you see the Unsullied and Freed Men thinking of this war among free folk?    Are pirates likely to join her cause?   Does she use stealth or just annihilate everything in her path.    What could the Dothraki be assigned to actually do?  What will her Westerosi loyalists think of her war machine?  

I’ll try to be a open minded and try not to let the thing that cannot be mentioned in the book form influence my opinion. I gotta confess Dany’s story line is one of my least favorite. So I guess my question to myself is how does Martin move her from the end of DwD when she is standing beside her dragon looking at 50 Dothraki to Westeros.

A major sticky point for me is Tyrion’s remark about the best way to kill a dragon is by an arrow through the eye. I’m not sure Drogon lives. The Dothraki may kill him.

Meeren is besieged. The Pale Mare disease is another issue. Vic’s IB fleet is knocking on the door. I am not knowledgeable about this storyline, as I said.

I seem to remember the leader of one of the sellsword groups wants Pentos.

I don’t think the Dothraki will cross the sea. They will balk. Their horses will balk.

Vic is not going to kowtow to a woman. If/when he comes ashore there will be fighting.

Dany has no allies on Westeros, except maybe Dorne.

I guess what I’m saying is she does not arrive in Westeros. BUT Martin is writing the story not me. It just seems to me that people aren’t really interested in restoring a Targ to the IT, they merely want her dragons.

Other wild cards are Marwyn and that Quaithe person.