Dany's War Machine

[fenr1s]

This whole discussion seems to largely based on HBO canon and has little to do with the books.

The numbers thrown around are quite ridiculous, an army of 100000 men with 50000 horses would need about 5000 ships to land in Westeros. Such a huge army would be starving in no time.

Nevermind that Dany is currently held captive by the Dothraki and commands no one.

If things turn out well for her and she gets control of a large number of Dothraki warriors, I believe the Dothraki will be used mainly in Essos and most of them will never cross the ocean which would require them to leave behind their families and possessions.

 

She currently has around 18000 men in Meeren plus the Ironfleet with about 5000 men.

Those forces of course will take casualties in the upcoming battle of Meeren so we can put the number of troops at about 12000-16000. You realistically need about 400-500 ships to transport that number of men, if a large part of the Volantenese fleet gets captured she could transport those troops.

 

Now the distance between Slavers Bay and Westeros is about the same as Columbus had to travel on his voyage to America, and transporting thousands of men directly over such distance is impossible.

I expect her to split her troops between the infantry and cavalry, including sellswords and Dothraki who will travel over land and will rejoin her in Pentos.

She will have to make multiple supply stops during the journey, maybe conquering Volantis in the process and would lose a substantial amount of ships and men.

 

The distance from Pentos to Dragonstone and the Crownlands is around a 1000 miles.

If she doesnt suddenly acquire a huge amount of additional ships i dont see her land with more than 15000-20000 men including a few thousand Dothraki at most.

That army and the dragons would still be a sufficient force considering the by that point likely bled out Westerosi armies.

 

[Clegane'sPup]

9 minutes ago, fenr1s said:

If things turn out well for her and she gets control of a large number of Dothraki warriors, I believe the Dothraki will be used mainly in Essos and most of them will never cross the ocean which would require them to leave behind their families and possessions.

Interesting idea. cool

[kimim]

20 minutes ago, fenr1s said:

This whole discussion seems to largely based on HBO canon and has little to do with the books.

 

On the numbers of ships needed to transport troops to Westeros: There's no guarantee that GRRM will be concerned with that. Khal Drogo had something like 30,000 men and horses, and he was going to transport them to Westeros before he was wounded. Per your numbers, he would have needed something like 1,500 ships to manage it, yet that issue was never brought up. I think a similar thing will happen with Dany's present situation. She has three dragons. She has the Unsullied. She will get a substantial number of the Dothraki. btw, I think her ending up a prisoner of the Dothraki is dubious, given the fact that Drogon is standing with her when she meets the Dothraki--that's books, not show. Show's where Drogon takes off and she becomes a captive.

As for ships: The Volantene fleet.

As for Dany in Westeros: Aegon managed to conquer the place with three dragons and a small army. Dany has three dragons, the Unsullied, and (imo) the Dothraki. Westeros is in the midst of famine, chaos, civil war.

[Clegane'sPup]

8 minutes ago, kimim said:

As for ships: The Volantene fleet.

I'm not bickering, I'm asking. They are against Dany? Vic is looking to do battle with them?

[Dex drako]

 

1 hour ago, theblackdragonI said:

^{How do you expect her to ferry her army to Westeros? If she goes by sea she'll have to keep stopping for supplies, if by land she'll have to march across all of Essos and she might choose to liberate the Free Cities then. I can't see her bringing a huge Dothraki horde, only a small portion will come I think. The southern houses won't get behind Jon}

26 minutes ago, fenr1s said:

This whole discussion seems to largely based on HBO canon and has little to do with the books.

no the books make it very clear this will happen too with the vision from the house of the undying.

"a line of naked crones emerging from a lake, kneeling before Daenerys beneath the Mother of Mountains"

Dany is Genghis khan she is going to get control of all dothraki and there is no point to give dany that army if she doesn't use it and I don't mean on Essos. Dany's lost chapter makes it clear shes washing her hands of Essos as soon as she can and taking her forces and heading for westeros

this is why I think GRRM with pull from Japans history and have Dany find/steal/make a lot of ships real quick and take most if not all of the dothraki sail to westeros. just for a lot to be lost en route by a storm so I don't expect half of them to make it to westeros and even most of them do almost all of them will be lost when kings landing blows.

what you guys have to remember is that Dany is not coming in as the underdog hero, she's coming in as an overwhelming threat to westeros just like the WW are.

 

[theblackdragonI]

I think the big question is whether she will go by land or by sea and both options lead to two more questions:

a) By land: 1) If Dany can rally the Dothraki how will she use them? Will they be able to restrain themselves? will they be able to cross the sea?                   2) Will she liberate the Free Cities from slavery or will she bypass them? I can't see her leaving them to slavery but then again George wouldn't waste space on that so I reckon she'll go by sea.

 By sea: 1) She'll need a fleet, and both the Ironborn and Volanteens are closing on Meeren. Victarion will never bend the knee to a woman, we know he hopes to take her for a wife so unless he dies (which I think he will) the Ironborn will not aid her. 

               2) She manages to capture the Volanteen fleet through some sort of slave uprising perhaps? 

Either way, getting her army in one piece to Westeros seems impossible at the moment. I personally think she'll land at Dragonstone with a small force made up of freemen, exiles and sellswords. I can't see the Dothraki land in Westeros. Even if they do, they would do much more harm than good in my opinion. 

[theblackdragonI]

1 hour ago, Dex drako said:

 

no the books make it very clear this will happen too with the vision from the house of the undying.

"a line of naked crones emerging from a lake, kneeling before Daenerys beneath the Mother of Mountains"

Dany is Genghis khan she is going to get control of all dothraki and there is no point to give dany that army if she doesn't use it and I don't mean on Essos. Dany's lost chapter makes it clear shes washing her hands of Essos as soon as she can and taking her forces and heading for westeros

this is why I think GRRM with pull from Japans history and have Dany find/steal/make a lot of ships real quick and take most if not all of the dothraki sail to westeros. just for a lot to be lost en route by a storm so I don't expect half of them to make it to westeros and even most of them do almost all of them will be lost when kings landing blows.

what you guys have to remember is that Dany is not coming in as the underdog hero, she's coming in as an overwhelming threat to westeros just like the WW are.

 

But even if she manages to unite all the Dothraki, convince them to sail and land with them, will she be able to stop them from raping and pillaging as is their culture? If you compare her to Genghis Khan, he was not able to stop his hordes from ransacking. I don't know how but I can't see the Dothraki landing in Westeros to be honest. Even if they did, surely they would be useless against properly disciplined armies made up of crossbows and pike? 

But isn't it in Georges nature to be deceieving? If Dany makes it out of the Dothraki sea and manages to rally all possible allies to her and sets sail with a huge force for a divided kingdom, doesn't that seem too good to be true? Like we all thought Robb Stark would beat the Lannisters, Obeyrn would get justice, Ned wouldn't be executed. I don't think George would set the table so clearly in Dany's favour.

[fenr1s]

2 hours ago, Dex drako said:

 

no the books make it very clear this will happen too with the vision from the house of the undying.

"a line of naked crones emerging from a lake, kneeling before Daenerys beneath the Mother of Mountains"

 It is quiet a stretch to take from that line that every single Dothraki warrior will follow her.

Quote

Dany is Genghis khan she is going to get control of all dothraki and there is no point to give dany that army if she doesn't use it and I don't mean on Essos. Dany's lost chapter makes it clear shes washing her hands of Essos as soon as she can and taking her forces and heading for westeros

Moving all the Dothraki warriors to Westeros would require thousands of ships she doesnt have and for the Dothraki to leave their women and children behind to fend for themselves. Dany probably knows hat such a large army is not required when you have dragons and could not be fed, especially in the Westerosi winter.

Quote

this is why I think GRRM with pull from Japans history and have Dany find/steal/make a lot of ships real quick and take most if not all of the dothraki sail to westeros. just for a lot to be lost en route by a storm so I don't expect half of them to make it to westeros and even most of them do almost all of them will be lost when kings landing blows.

what you guys have to remember is that Dany is not coming in as the underdog hero, she's coming in as an overwhelming threat to westeros just like the WW are.

 

I dont see the point of inventing a plot device to get hold of thousands of ships just to have them all get sunk when the same could be accomplished in a more reasonable way.

[Dex drako]

29 minutes ago, theblackdragonI said:

But even if she manages to unite all the Dothraki, convince them to sail and land with them, will she be able to stop them from raping and pillaging as is their culture? If you compare her to Genghis Khan, he was not able to stop his hordes from ransacking. I don't know how but I can't see the Dothraki landing in Westeros to be honest. Even if they did, surely they would be useless against properly disciplined armies made up of crossbows and pike? 

But isn't it in Georges nature to be deceieving? If Dany makes it out of the Dothraki sea and manages to rally all possible allies to her and sets sail with a huge force for a divided kingdom, doesn't that seem too good to be true? Like we all thought Robb Stark would beat the Lannisters, Obeyrn would get justice, Ned wouldn't be executed. I don't think George would set the table so clearly in Dany's favour.

that's the point GRRM is not setting the table in Dany's favor he's setting her up to fail.

you have to understand we are not heading into the part of the story were Dany a the hero (she will later but not right now). the vision of her brother saying how she failed because she hasn't shown them the meaning of the targ word (fire and blood) and the dragons plant no trees shows where her plot is going. she won't stop the dothraki from raping because GRRM means for her to be a equal threat to westeros as the WW will be

I believe the theory that the song of ice and fire is not about the good fire guys against the bad ice guy, in this story both fire and ice are equal threats. the song of ice and fire is about man overcoming the forces of both ice and fire to find balance.

 

13 minutes ago, fenr1s said:

 It is quiet a stretch to take from that line that every single Dothraki warrior will follow her.

Moving all the Dothraki warriors to Westeros would require thousands of ships she doesnt have and for the Dothraki to leave their women and children behind to fend for themselves. Dany probably knows hat such a large army is not required when you have dragons and could not be fed, especially in the Westerosi winter.

I dont see the point of inventing a plot device to get hold of thousands of ships just to have them all get sunk when the same could be accomplished in a more reasonable way.

you have a point on then dying on the trip I just think it would be a nice historical parallel, but Dany will have the forces. the vision showed the doah khaleen bowing to Dany and they rule the dothraki. and she'll get the ship by hook or by crook because Dany isn't coming to just win she's coming for vengeance, to show westeros the meaning of fire and blood.

she'll have as big of a force as she can get.

[Curled Finger]

12 hours ago, Lord Vance II said:

Dany's potential invasion makes me fear for Westeros. 

The death and destruction wrought by Dany's invasion has the possibility to make the War of 5 Kings look like a skirmish. She's assembled the most violent, disdainful army the common Westerosi could dream up...Dothraki raiders, Ironborn, Eunice slave soldiers (as far as they're concerned) and freakin' dragons. 

There are no slaves to free. The small folk have no reason to support her. She offers nothing but another, worse cycle of fire and blood. She's made every noble house of Westeros her enemy, why would they join her? Dorne might I guess, but if they do so what? They have an decent force, but to hit anywhere else you either have to get back on ships or cross the Red Mountains. 

Obediant, sure. But fear keeps you alive. Plus they are relatively lightly armored, knights would shred through them. I think she would keep them very close. 

My problem with her Dothraki army, besides fearing for Westeros, is that they have no incentive. I don't doubt they would go...but are they just going to win and go home? They'll want something. She can't give them land in Westeros. So wealth? Would she let them head home with fortunes of her own peoples riches? When the crown is still buried in debt?

I think Aegon is going to land, win over a few houses and say "Yo, this b*tch is coming and we need to be ready, rally around me." The best chance to beat her, in my opinion, would be an all out, fairly suicidal naval attack to try to destroy as much as possible, or be able to strike right a she lands, wherever that is. The Dragons are strong and terrifying, but you cant occupy a vast continent with three dragons.

Am I biased against Dany, you bet. But only because I just don't see her being a good thing for Westeros. Nothing to offer but more fire and blood. 

Fair enough, you've given disclosure.   In that spirit I'll admit that i don't dislike Dany at all.   I think she has the potential to conquer both Essos and Westeros if she does it the right way.   The Dothraki are both boon and bane for Dany.   (This of course assumes she actually gets them.)  Sellswords will do what they will.   The Freed Men will do what they're told.  I agree with your assessment of the Unsullied, that they will be at the heart of her defense.  I'm not sure she will have any knights or many Iron Born by her side and I'm not sure there won't be trained military from cities neighboring Mereen in this mix.   And I think Aegon only went ahead to pave the way for Dany and prove his worth to her.   Like you I fear for Westeros because Dany's been impetuous and rash at times.  And there are all those thoughts of blood and fire when we last saw her.   But then I got to thinking about what Aegon is really doing in Westeros.   I don't see this DOD 2.0 or conflict between his people and hers.   I think they almost have to unite as Targaryans.   Remember he knows about her and went to Westeros almost for her--to gain her respect as Tyrion put it to him.  Dany has no clue about Aegon.    That could be a problem.  Which got me thinking about the original Aegon and his sisters.   They basically did their conquering with their dragons and each other...literal fire and blood.   It appeared to me that they amassed their troops as they gained support or through defeat of opposition.   Granted those defeats were brutal and decisive as things tend to be in war and conquest.   They took 6 kingdoms with very little auxiliary support in a relatively short time.   I think this could be possible if Aegon really is Aegon and can command a dragon and she doesn't just kill him on sight.  I think Tyrion or any dragon rider who joins her cause could affect Westeros in much the same way.  

Still, she does appear to have this interesting frightening force.   Most us imagine the bulk of the body of her fighters will be the Dothraki.   Nasty as they are, I can't help but think (hope) there will be something she does to impress them into subjection to her rule.   Maybe.  I do hope we get a peek into the thoughts of her strange crew as they move through Westeros.   

Perhaps reward for the Dothraki lay in Mereen or those neighboring cities?  As many posters have pointed out, Barristan promised Pentos to the Tattered Prince.   Who knows to whom places like Astapor, Yunkai and Volantis might be given to?   I can't imagine she would allow her new and improved Dothraki to continue their slaving, rape and pillaging.   

I really enjoyed your thoughts here.   You've brought some important considerations to the table.   

[Curled Finger]

13 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Daenerys has enough to start her campaign but will need troops in Westeros to win. I am guessing she will have something like 10000-30000 Dothraki, 5000 unsullied, 5000 free fighting men and 2 dragons, but I could see her have even less. Maybe even 10000 all in all at worst case. 

What she needs is allies in Westeros. Luckily, she will get the support from the nobles out of current favor and who longs for revenge (most likely from those that got crushed by Aegon). Recruiting from the losing side seems to work well in Westeros since the nobles are bad at sucking it up to the new leaders and have a strong culture of Revanchism.

So, I am seeing her getting support from Westerlands and The Reach - because I think that they will be beaten pretty badly by Aegon and will long for revenge after JonCons brutal treatment of them. Her troops can´t rape and pillage her own side and their land but I doubt her future allies cares if say Riverlands or Stormlands suffers some extra rape & pillage. I certainly wouldn´t if I were them. 

Remember Viserys drilled into Dany's head that a huge army is required to take Westeros.  However, although I believe she will gather and venture forth with her massive force, I don't believe she will have all of it when she actually lands.   Allow me to throw out the possibility that many sellsword companies and even soldiers from Yunkai, Pentos, Volantis who knows maybe even Qaarth will join her ranks.  Of course that depends heavily on the outcome of the Battle of Fire in Mereen.   But yes, I would think your numbers are squarely in the entirely possible category here.   

Support in Westeros trips me up.   Since Dany has no idea that Aegon is conquering Westeros in hopes of her marrying him, it's entirely possible she goes around to the west or lands further north, in the Riverlands, Vale and/or Westerlands.  She may feel she needs to gather forces in the places this new king hasn't yet conquered.   But yes, I would expect Jon Con will make some very bitter enemies with his new Tywinish attitude toward war.   Not much worse than bitter enemies in Westeros.   Aegon, Visenya and Rhaenys split up and landed in different places at different times.   I keep thinking about Visenya's single handed winning of Vale support with little more than a dragon ride and short talk on the new world order.  

12 hours ago, SeanF said:

Assuming that the essence of the Show is correct, then she'll return to Westeros with Ironborn, sellswords, Dothraki, and the Unsullied.  I expect that in the book, a revolution in Volantis will work in her favour, and maybe she'll take Pentos along the way (Ser Barristan has promised Pentos to the Tattered Prince, in return for switching sides, and Pentos would be a very useful base from which to attack Westeros).  Potentially, she'll have immense forces at her disposal, but the logistics of transporting them would be formidably difficult.  Still, there's no reason she wouldn't be able to bring the sort of army and navy that the Ottomans brought to the Siege of Malta (say 30,000 soldiers on 300 ships).

30,000, even with the backing of Eastern reinforcements, isn't enough to win, so she'll need allies in Westeros.  Who will they be?  My guess is that by the time she arrives, The Golden Company and the Dornish will be in charge at Kings Landing.  Aegon will be crowned King, and not disposed to sharing his Throne with Daenerys, and she in turn, will view him as a fraud.   Cersei, Jaime, Tommen, Margaery, Mace, et al may or may not still be alive, but I expect the Lannisters and Tyrells will still have forces at their disposal.  So, I imagine they (and other dispossessed Houses) is where she'll be looking for allies.  The War of the Five Kings has dispossessed thousands of landowners, and anyone who's down on their luck will look to Dany to restore their fortunes.

Hrmmm that show again.  Yes, I know there may be grains of truth, but let's see what the real story has.   I think Vic has 35 of his 50 ships left as well as a strange woman and strange Moqorro.  Vic didn't appear to have his mind last time I saw him.  I think you're right about Volantis making some huge contributions to Dany's cause.  Pentos would be an excellent base, but why stop there?   Lys and Myr are slave states.  Maybe she takes them all?   (I'm sure that could keep Dany, Selmy, Jorah and Tyrion away from the real goal for an entire book.)  But yes, I agree that she will need to make some friends in Westeros.   It's possible all the loyal Targ houses flock to Aegon, which would be fun to watch.   Though I think Aegon's on Dany's side anything can happen once he gets a taste of power.   I believe the Tyrrel forces or part of them are marching on Aegon, but the Tyrells did very well supporting the Targs so perhaps their just marching to join Aegon?   Truth is I'm not sure there really is a respectable Lannister army without the Tyrells.   They seem to be a bit far flung between the Westerlands, the Riverlands and the Crownlands.   I could agree more with your closing.  Ah the game of thrones...

 

10 hours ago, theblackdragonI said:

I think a lot of people are forgetting the current numbers of actual soldiers left in Westeros at the moment. 

The North under the Boltons can barely muster more than 6-10k, which will soon be involved in fighting against Stannis (who has even less) and however many Nights Watch and wildlings survive the massacre at the Wall.

The Riverlands has been virtually destroyed, with only the Freys and Mallisters being capable of marshalling any troops.

The Vale and Dorne have managed to retain all their troops.

The Iron Islands couldn't have more than 5-8k after losing so much men trying to hold the North and sending the Iron Fleet to Meeren.

With Jaime missing, Tyrion in exile and Kevan dead, there is no clear leader of House Lannister to rally their scattered armies. I'd imagine an invasion from the Vale or Dorne would be able to defeat the remaining Lannister armies (if there was no help from the Reach), as the Lannisters are scattered and significantly weakened after the WOTFK.

The Reach still command the largest armies and fleet which like their land has remained relatively untouched by war. However, with Euron's invasion in the south, the Reach has been forced to split their forces, and with all the chaos in KL it's not clear if the Reach will continue to support the Lannister. Margary has been married three times already, maybe they could be swayed by a marriage offer to Aegon? The Tyrells were loyalists after all. 

The remaining Stormlords who could actually muster men, may flock to Aegon if he takes Storm's End with Jon Connington, or maybe to Red Ronnet? 

To sum up, the remaining Westerosi forces are divided and weakened at this moment. It's highly unlikely they'll be able to unite against Dany or Aegon or both. Dany's biggest problem is keeping together her forces and keeping supplied. She doesn't want to land divided like Aegon, or scatter her fleet like Victarion. I can see Dany flying to Dragonstone immediately on her Drogon, she would be drawn to her birthplace and ancestral home. I can imagine GRRM writing a chapter with Dany and her captains at the Painted Table, planning their conquest. 

Thanks for the numbers.   I have to agree with your assessments though I do wish you'd thrown all the numbers out!   Someone has to know them.   Westeros is a depleated, weakened place.   But they are nasty wicked people when threatened.   Let's hope the Freys get the honor of being the 1st wave against Aegon then those left can be the 1st wave against Dany.   As I read your post it seems more and more apparent to me that Dany needs to get to middle Westeros to actually gain some momentum.  The last is bolded just because I liked it.   Thanks! 

8 hours ago, Dex drako said:

dothraki are locust they feed off of whatever they're attacking which is an advantage for her but will do more damage to westeros.
 

 except that's why Jon exists, he's the person everyone unite behind.

  Could be, but I know well how lousy tricksy GRRM is.   I read your post this morning but opted not to reply from my phone (it has a mind of its own), but I wanted to.  If we break it down, Dany isn't coming to Westeros to destroy it.   She wants it to be her home and subject.  Blood and Fire don't have to be ultimate destruction.   That's why the make up of her forces bothers me so.  There is more at play here than we can throw darts at until we get Winds.    Ah Jon.   That's what got me thinking that Westeros may divide into 3 rules for a time--until the real bad guys start hanging around anyway.   Jon in the North, Dany in the upper south or middle and Aegon in the South.    Could it happen that way for a while? 

6 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I’ll try to be a open minded and try not to let the thing that cannot be mentioned in the book form influence my opinion. I gotta confess Dany’s story line is one of my least favorite. So I guess my question to myself is how does Martin move her from the end of DwD when she is standing beside her dragon looking at 50 Dothraki to Westeros.

A major sticky point for me is Tyrion’s remark about the best way to kill a dragon is by an arrow through the eye. I’m not sure Drogon lives. The Dothraki may kill him.

Meeren is besieged. The Pale Mare disease is another issue. Vic’s IB fleet is knocking on the door. I am not knowledgeable about this storyline, as I said.

I seem to remember the leader of one of the sellsword groups wants Pentos.

I don’t think the Dothraki will cross the sea. They will balk. Their horses will balk.

Vic is not going to kowtow to a woman. If/when he comes ashore there will be fighting.

Dany has no allies on Westeros, except maybe Dorne.

I guess what I’m saying is she does not arrive in Westeros. BUT Martin is writing the story not me. It just seems to me that people aren’t really interested in restoring a Targ to the IT, they merely want her dragons.

Other wild cards are Marwyn and that Quaithe person.

It's always good to see you, Pup.  I bolded the parts I am having the most fun with.   You sure picked up on a few things for someone who isn't that interested.   If I was GRRM, I would just have her tell her dragon to torch the fools and fly her back to Mereen.  Fortunately I'm not writing or consulting!   Mereen is a mess to be sure.   Fightin', dyin', frickin Iron Born.   Personally, I hope there is a really clever trick up his sleeve for this because I'm very fond of both Tyrion and Barristan.   I hope they kick butt in a big way.   And Vic's nuts and dying if not already dead with that creepy smoking arm of his.   He thinks he's going to hit her over the head and Dany will become his thrall.   I love Vic, too.   Though I think you're right about him bringing his 2 cents to the fight, I imagine he will fight on her side because he wants her to marry him.   Just a guess.   I bet lunch the Tyrells would get on the Dany Train.  But yeah, Dorne is the big one we expect to fall in line.   Maybe.  @kimim above drew a perfect picture of Dany's timeline to Westeros.   Marwyn and Quaithe are both big fat deals, you're absolutely right.  Love to hear any thoughts you have on those 2 joining or subverting Dany.   

[Curled Finger]

6 hours ago, fenr1s said:

She currently has around 18000 men in Meeren plus the Ironfleet with about 5000 men.

Those forces of course will take casualties in the upcoming battle of Meeren so we can put the number of troops at about 12000-16000. You realistically need about 400-500 ships to transport that number of men, if a large part of the Volantenese fleet gets captured she could transport those troops.

Now the distance between Slavers Bay and Westeros is about the same as Columbus had to travel on his voyage to America, and transporting thousands of men directly over such distance is impossible.

She will have to make multiple supply stops during the journey, maybe conquering Volantis in the process and would lose a substantial amount of ships and men.

The distance from Pentos to Dragonstone and the Crownlands is around a 1000 miles.

 

I get it, still she knows she can't take some weak showing to Westeros.  Viserys was squawking about it all the time.   She won't go with the meager force she's currently got.   And she hasn't got the IB fleet.   Vic only took maybe 50 ships and he's lost about a third of them.  But I get what you're saying.   The numbers are too low.   I'm looking at my wall map of Westeros and Essos.   Mine doesn't have a legend, but Slavers Bay looks a lot closer to Westeros than Spain to North America.   I'm not saying you're wrong, I just don't see it.   I went to the interactive map to try to gauge the distance from Pentos to Dragonstone to the Crownlands, again, no legend but it doesn't look like 1000 miles.  Are there some passages you maybe caught that describe the journeys in days or something?    I love it that you're bringing logistics into it and I wish I had a scale or legend, so if you've got one or even some citations, I'd love it.   It's good to have the whole story man.  Thanks for bringing it up.  

6 hours ago, kimim said:

On the numbers of ships needed to transport troops to Westeros: There's no guarantee that GRRM will be concerned with that. Khal Drogo had something like 30,000 men and horses, and he was going to transport them to Westeros before he was wounded. Per your numbers, he would have needed something like 1,500 ships to manage it, yet that issue was never brought up. I think a similar thing will happen with Dany's present situation. She has three dragons. She has the Unsullied. She will get a substantial number of the Dothraki. btw, I think her ending up a prisoner of the Dothraki is dubious, given the fact that Drogon is standing with her when she meets the Dothraki--that's books, not show. Show's where Drogon takes off and she becomes a captive.

As for ships: The Volantene fleet.

As for Dany in Westeros: Aegon managed to conquer the place with three dragons and a small army. Dany has three dragons, the Unsullied, and (imo) the Dothraki. Westeros is in the midst of famine, chaos, civil war.

Thanks kimim, the numbers are important.   I believe Robert was bemoaning to Ned when he was hell bent to have Dany assassinated about 40K Dothraki screamers coming over.  Jorah or Illyrio said Khal Drogo had 50K in his hoard (whether or not that included women and children I can't say).  Viserys was satisfied that the number of Dothraki he traveled with would be enough to invade Westeros. 100K Dothraki assembled at Vaes Dothrak for Viserys' crowning.  It's so easy to confuse the mediums so thanks for keeping the stories straight. I didn't remember that Aegon had any army at all.   

 

6 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

I'm not bickering, I'm asking. They are against Dany? Vic is looking to do battle with them?

The Volantine Fleet is rumored to be nearing the bay--headed in the same place Vic and Marwyn are headed.   The V are very much against Dany as they are slavers and she's cramping their style.   I think we all rather expect that Vic is the only logical pro Dany guy to kick their butts--ship against ship and all.   Again, just a guess.   

[Curled Finger]

4 hours ago, theblackdragonI said:

I think the big question is whether she will go by land or by sea and both options lead to two more questions:

a) By land: 1) If Dany can rally the Dothraki how will she use them? Will they be able to restrain themselves? will they be able to cross the sea?                   2) Will she liberate the Free Cities from slavery or will she bypass them? I can't see her leaving them to slavery but then again George wouldn't waste space on that so I reckon she'll go by sea.

 By sea: 1) She'll need a fleet, and both the Ironborn and Volanteens are closing on Meeren. Victarion will never bend the knee to a woman, we know he hopes to take her for a wife so unless he dies (which I think he will) the Ironborn will not aid her. 

               2) She manages to capture the Volanteen fleet through some sort of slave uprising perhaps? 

Either way, getting her army in one piece to Westeros seems impossible at the moment. I personally think she'll land at Dragonstone with a small force made up of freemen, exiles and sellswords. I can't see the Dothraki land in Westeros. Even if they do, they would do much more harm than good in my opinion. 

The battle in Mereen seems to be of interest to all Mereen's neighbors.   We've got Astapor (OK they're all dying, but they're still there), Yunkai, Volantis, Old Ghis--didn't someone from Qaarth show his ugly face too?   We've got probably 20 sellsword companies, some on stilts, some on elephants.  I think there is potential in all these neighbors losing and having to join the cause.   Sickness is a huge threat.  One of the neighbors is actually catapulting diseased dead bodies over the wall into the city.   By the time it's all said and done the Dothraki may be the only army she can take to Westeros.  She will have to make them submit to her as the supreme khaleesi (it was our word before it became a popular baby name, dammit.)  I think a dragon could make them submit, but it will probably have to entail some sort of edict from HQ in Vaes Dothrak.   I don't think she interested in further campaign in Essos.  She wants to go home.  It's more likely that they all just curl  up and die from Pale Mare or they have to submit because of defeat.   Who knows?   Maybe that's what the Dothraki are for?   She sacks all the cities and locks the slavers out while their off waging war on Mereen.    Lots could happen.   

Ships are even tougher.    There isn't actually an IB fleet at all.   He's got 30 to 40 ships left.   That's it.  To his credit Vic is a BAMF and he is likely to utterly decimate the Volantine Fleet.   Don't forget

Spoiler

Euron said he's headed east.   He is the storm.   He is coming for his dragon. 

  So maybe there will be an IB fleet eventually.  Shudder.   But I think there will be a Volantine Fleet and anyone else who happens into the bay.   Your point about Vic not submitting is dead on.  But, to his further credit, he isn't that bright either, so even Missandei could play him like a fiddle and he won't know it's happening.   

Dragonstone is my favorite landing spot, too.   Who knows?   She may go ahead of the whole bunch just to get the lay of the land.   Still I think if the crazy and unpleasant Dothraki do go to Westeros they (the leaders anyway) will go under Dany's flag and at least act like they aren't crazy.   When she's there.   

Really appreciated your alternate scenarios and thought provoking questions.   

[Curled Finger]

OK last post tonight, I promise.  I have a friend who reads the forum but doesn't post.  Yes, I am friends with a lurker.   She's been following the discussion and came up with a possible fix for Dany's transport problem.  She hypothesizes that the land bridge may still be intact only covered as snows melted from the very hot and long summers 12,000 years ago.  (I'm trying to transcribe this.)  With winter on the approach, the waters will recede and the land bridge will be visible allowing Dany and her massive entourage to cross on foot.  She found an example of this at the Queen's Tower when Bran finds the land bridge leading to the island in the center of the lake.   She further likes the idea of a little bit of water remaining so that it appears that the huge army is walking on water as they approach Westeros.     

I thought it was great.   Thanks Shellie. 

 

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

.   

 

The Volantine Fleet is rumored to be nearing the bay--headed in the same place Vic and Marwyn are headed.   The V are very much against Dany as they are slavers and she's cramping their style.   I think we all rather expect that Vic is the only logical pro Dany guy to kick their butts--ship against ship and all.   Again, just a guess.   

I expect that a large part of the Volantene navy will mutiny in favour of Dany, under the influence of the Red Priests.

[Lord Vance II]

12 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I really enjoyed your thoughts here.   You've brought some important considerations to the table.

Just doing my part on a favorite topic. 

18 hours ago, theblackdragonI said:

How do you expect her to ferry her army to Westeros? If she goes by sea she'll have to keep stopping for supplies, if by land she'll have to march across all of Essos and she might choose to liberate the Free Cities then.

I think marching across Essos is the play here. Slower, a bit, but she would be able to link up with the dragon roads not too far to the west and any fleet would have to round Valyria, adding time. If she brought as many Dothraki with her on her way west, I don't think any of the Free Cities are going to lift a finger. She won't take all the Dothraki across the sea, but at least bring them as a show of force on Essos. Collect tribute to either pay her way across the Narrow Sea or pay the IT debt when/if she takes over (both involving Braavos). 

Passage by sea is dangerous. If Dany's fleet got hit with a hurricane (as often roll over the Stepstones), she could lose half her army like that. Plus I think she would want to keep her Dothraki off ships as much as possible.

12 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Remember he knows about her and went to Westeros almost for her--to gain her respect as Tyrion put it to him.

I think as she makes her way West, stories will start filtering in that will change his mind and also turn the people against her out of fear. Don't know specifically, but just a hunch. That and pride will, I think, will make Aegon claim the throne for himself and fight her. 

21 hours ago, theblackdragonI said:

I think a lot of people are forgetting the current numbers of actual soldiers left in Westeros at the moment. 

The North under the Boltons can barely muster more than 6-10k, which will soon be involved in fighting against Stannis (who has even less) and however many Nights Watch and wildlings survive the massacre at the Wall.

Lord Manderly has to have at least 5k, and I think as many as 8k fresh men. But even so, I really think the North won't factor into the initial invasion and war. Their war is to the north. 

[theblackdragonI]

11 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

 Pentos would be an excellent base, but why stop there?   Lys and Myr are slave states.  Maybe she takes them all?   (I'm sure that could keep Dany, Selmy, Jorah and Tyrion away from the real goal for an entire book.)  But yes, I agree that she will need to make some friends in Westeros.   It's possible all the loyal Targ houses flock to Aegon, which would be fun to watch.   Though I think Aegon's on Dany's side anything can happen once he gets a taste of power.   I believe the Tyrrel forces or part of them are marching on Aegon, but the Tyrells did very well supporting the Targs so perhaps their just marching to join Aegon?   Truth is I'm not sure there really is a respectable Lannister army without the Tyrells.   They seem to be a bit far flung between the Westerlands, the Riverlands and the Crownlands.   I could agree more with your closing.  Ah the game of thrones...

 

Thanks for the numbers.   I have to agree with your assessments though I do wish you'd thrown all the numbers out!   Someone has to know them.   Westeros is a depleated, weakened place.   But they are nasty wicked people when threatened.   Let's hope the Freys get the honor of being the 1st wave against Aegon then those left can be the 1st wave against Dany.   As I read your post it seems more and more apparent to me that Dany needs to get to middle Westeros to actually gain some momentum.  The last is bolded just because I liked it.   Thanks! 

 

Yea man thanks! I agree with your thoughts on Essos. I feel Dany has kind of dug herself into a hole with her liberation. Will she just leave Slavers Bay in a mess and bypass the slaver Free Cities as well? I'm not sure if Dany would go for the whole marriage with Aegon purely on the basis of she's his aunt and she does'nt seem to believe in the whole Targ incest. I can definitely imagine the Tyrells forsaking the Lannisters for Aegon, how? I'm not sure. Kind of off topic but do you think that the Martells will support Aegon or Dany? If Quentyns dead and Aegon is waiting to possibly marry Dany, then who would the Dornish declare for first? 

About the numbers, it's hard to accurately calculate them. The Reach probably has 35-45k split between their army under Randyl Tarly, their banners at home under Garlan Tyrell and the Redwyne fleet. The Lannisters probably have 20k or so, that is scattered around the Riverlands, West and Crownlands. Dorne and The Vale are literally untouched and could both bring somewhere in the area of 20k (Vale) and 15k (Dorne). I really love the idea of Dany with her captains at the Painted Table, mirroring Aegon's Conquest.

10 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

The battle in Mereen seems to be of interest to all Mereen's neighbors.   We've got Astapor (OK they're all dying, but they're still there), Yunkai, Volantis, Old Ghis--didn't someone from Qaarth show his ugly face too?   We've got probably 20 sellsword companies, some on stilts, some on elephants.  I think there is potential in all these neighbors losing and having to join the cause.   Sickness is a huge threat.  One of the neighbors is actually catapulting diseased dead bodies over the wall into the city.   By the time it's all said and done the Dothraki may be the only army she can take to Westeros.  She will have to make them submit to her as the supreme khaleesi (it was our word before it became a popular baby name, dammit.)  I think a dragon could make them submit, but it will probably have to entail some sort of edict from HQ in Vaes Dothrak.   I don't think she interested in further campaign in Essos.  She wants to go home.  It's more likely that they all just curl  up and die from Pale Mare or they have to submit because of defeat.   Who knows?   Maybe that's what the Dothraki are for?   She sacks all the cities and locks the slavers out while their off waging war on Mereen.    Lots could happen.   

Ships are even tougher.    There isn't actually an IB fleet at all.   He's got 30 to 40 ships left.   That's it.  To his credit Vic is a BAMF and he is likely to utterly decimate the Volantine Fleet.   Don't forget

  Hide contents

Euron said he's headed east.   He is the storm.   He is coming for his dragon. 

  So maybe there will be an IB fleet eventually.  Shudder.   But I think there will be a Volantine Fleet and anyone else who happens into the bay.   Your point about Vic not submitting is dead on.  But, to his further credit, he isn't that bright either, so even Missandei could play him like a fiddle and he won't know it's happening.   

Dragonstone is my favorite landing spot, too.   Who knows?   She may go ahead of the whole bunch just to get the lay of the land.   Still I think if the crazy and unpleasant Dothraki do go to Westeros they (the leaders anyway) will go under Dany's flag and at least act like they aren't crazy.   When she's there.   

Really appreciated your alternate scenarios and thought provoking questions.   

I think you're right about Dany being legitamised at Vaes Dothrak. Maybe she'll arrive in time to smash the besiegers, but from Barristan and Tyrion's POVs, the odds seem to be in the Meereneese favour wouldn't you agree? The Yunkish are made up mainly of independent, ill-discilplined slave troops and sellswords. On top of that, they have no overall leader and their camp is riddled with disease. With Barristan the Bold leading the attack they could very well win. However, we just don't know what will happen when the Ironborn or Volanteens turn up. I forgot about Euron coming east, I think Euron will ultimately be killed by Victarion who might die in the attempt? I can't see any of Theon's uncles surviving. 

Awesome thread!

[theblackdragonI]

37 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

 

Lord Manderly has to have at least 5k, and I think as many as 8k fresh men. But even so, I really think the North won't factor into the initial invasion and war. Their war is to the north. 

I'm not so sure. Assuming as one of the Stark's leading banners he could call on maybe 8k in AGOT. He must have lost the bulk of his troops in the south with Robb. We know he brought a few hundred to Winterfell, so the remainder of his forces must be in White Harbour where he can save them to press Rickon's claim maybe? I honestly don't know the North is in such chaos, but even still they lost the majority of their men south of the Neck. They call Robb the King who Lost the North for a reason.

[Lord Vance II]

7 minutes ago, theblackdragonI said:

. Assuming as one of the Stark's leading banners he could call on maybe 8k in AGOT. He must have lost the bulk of his troops in the south with Robb.

He sent 2k south with Robb, the rest kept, presumably to stand in case of this exact situation (except without the Bolton betrayal). Since then he's also built a navy that Davos sees at White Harbor. I think he has enough to be counted among the players with a mainly intact army. 

[SeanF]

48 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

Just doing my part on a favorite topic. 

I think marching across Essos is the play here. Slower, a bit, but she would be able to link up with the dragon roads not too far to the west and any fleet would have to round Valyria, adding time. If she brought as many Dothraki with her on her way west, I don't think any of the Free Cities are going to lift a finger. She won't take all the Dothraki across the sea, but at least bring them as a show of force on Essos. Collect tribute to either pay her way across the Narrow Sea or pay the IT debt when/if she takes over (both involving Braavos). 

Passage by sea is dangerous. If Dany's fleet got hit with a hurricane (as often roll over the Stepstones), she could lose half her army like that. Plus I think she would want to keep her Dothraki off ships as much as possible.

I think as she makes her way West, stories will start filtering in that will change his mind and also turn the people against her out of fear. Don't know specifically, but just a hunch. That and pride will, I think, will make Aegon claim the throne for himself and fight her. 

Lord Manderly has to have at least 5k, and I think as many as 8k fresh men. But even so, I really think the North won't factor into the initial invasion and war. Their war is to the north. 

Mereen to Kings Landing is about 3,000 miles by Sea, similar to London to New York.  I don't think it's feasible to transport a large army so far, at least in one go, especially given the risks of sailing round the Valyrian Peninsula.   I agree that probably quite a lot of them will march overland to Volantis and/or Western Essos.

Volantis to Kings Landing is about 1,500 miles by Sea, which is feasible IMHO.  That's not much further than Belisarius' army sailed, from Constantinople to Carthage, or the Ottomans, when they attacked Malta.  In all likelihood, the ships would sail up the Essos coastline, before crossing the Narrow Sea.  Alternatively, they could just conquer the Stepstones, and approach Westeros that way.

WRT the impression that Dany makes in Westeros, one can imagine that if the Dothraki unite, and start rampaging through Western Essos, you'd have refugees pouring into the coastal cities, and some maybe crossing to Westeros.  So, people would likely be apprehensive.