Why didn't Stannis personally command the naval fleet at blackwater...????

[John Doe]

3 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

He would though. 

Like he burned and slashed the Stormlands? You shouldn't believe everything Littlefinger says to reach his goals. The same applies to Renly, who wanted to crown himself despite of his obvious lack of a claim.

[Tucu]

7 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

I outlined why Davos' misidentification is largely irrelevant. You neither want to be trapped behind a chain nor trapped in a narrow area where siege weapons are going to fire missiles and big fucking rocks at you. It's bad for the paintjobs on the boat. That kind of maintenance just ruins the war budget. You have to get it detailed and repainted after every amphibious invasion.

Stannis knew about the chain, the towers (he had archers outside them), the siege weapons and the size of KL's fleet. They knew that they would be facing wildfire, but only limited quantities ("Ser Imry had warned them to expect a taste of the alchemists' vile substance. Fortunately, there were few true pyromancers left. They will soon run out"). Only having a spy in the Alchemist's Guild or in the Small Council would have dissuaded Stannis to continue with their plan.

[Sullen]

On 22/08/2016 at 9:41 PM, JWittoBeast said:

Title says it all.

He's supposed to be the greatest naval commander in Westeros, even defeating the infamous Iron Fleet off of Fair Isle during their rebellion (IIRC they had more ships than Stannis too, so he was outnumbered aswell), and then landing his soldiers at Great Wyk.

Stannis had waaaay more ships than the Iron Fleet at Fair Isle.

Not that the victory isn't impressive, but to act as if the odds were against him is disingenuous. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

36 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Stannis knew about the chain, the towers (he had archers outside them), the siege weapons and the size of KL's fleet. They knew that they would be facing wildfire, but only limited quantities ("Ser Imry had warned them to expect a taste of the alchemists' vile substance. Fortunately, there were few true pyromancers left. They will soon run out"). Only having a spy in the Alchemist's Guild or in the Small Council would have dissuaded Stannis to continue with their plan.

How is Stannis supposed to communicate with Imry to alter them? He gave a broad outline of what he wanted done, I'm guessing, and Imry put the plan together himself. Stannis was not commanding the fleet. How and where would have changed if Stannis were in charge, but not the fact they were going to attack. On that we agree. However even with the giant caches of wildfire, sailing around the chain and attacking the Iron gate would have been the smart play. I don't even really see how that's a question.

[Tucu]

8 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

How is Stannis supposed to communicate with Imry to alter them? He gave a broad outline of what he wanted done, I'm guessing, and Imry put the plan together himself. Stannis was not commanding the fleet. How and where would have changed if Stannis were in charge, but not the fact they were going to attack. On that we agree. However even with the giant caches of wildfire, sailing around the chain and attacking the Iron gate would have been the smart play. I don't even really see how that's a question.

The fleet was there to break KL's fleet, establish a beachhead by the Mud Gate and then ferry the main Stannis' host across the river. Attacking the Iron Gate would not be useful at all.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Tucu said:

The fleet was there to break KL's fleet, establish a beachhead by the Mud Gate and then ferry the main Stannis' host across the river. Attacking the Iron Gate would not be useful at all.

Except that it's available to troops who avoid the chain, which is what they should have done and would have done had they bothered scouting. It's also very close to the water. The framework of Stannis' plan is good. The details would have altered it considerably.

[sifth]

5 hours ago, Ser Arthur Hightower said:

But his battle plan cannot revolve around prevention of a trap involving technology they do not know exists, They are prepared for some wildfire, but they cannot possibly know the quantity available to Tyrion, and it would be silly to waste time anticipating it. The chain could simply have been a futile attempt to split Stannis' fleet. Davos is quite a cautious man in such matters, which makes sense because he survived as a smuggler for so long by being a cautious man.

Regardless the chain and wildfire trap was a futile attempt, as it didn't stop Stannis, and didn't do a huge amount in slowing him down, it is only in hindsight that we know the time and ships lost by Stannis turned out to be crucial.

Tywin was hundreds of miles north in the Riverlands, at least that is what Stannis believed at the time. Now I don't know where the easternmost ford of the Blackwater is, but it may require him to travel into the Reach to cross, then of course he could come into conflict with Rivermen and Northmen, and this is all before actually taking the battle to Tywin.

Generally trying to hunt down armies in the field is not the best idea, especially if they are a long way away and you don't know where they are going (or where they are currently).

Now it wouldhave been smart to go after Renly's infantry in the Reach, but the plot did not demand that and it does make sense that many lords and knights wish to go on the offensive against the Lannisters. 

They knew about the chain, they knew that it was down and that the chain towers were guarded which all, but made certain it was complete. It's the equivalent of an enemy leaving his door wide open when an advancing force was coming. You'd have to be a complete idiot to just blindly walk it. To make matters worse most of Joffrey's fleet was not in the bay.

 

On top of everything else Tyrion got lucky that A- Stannis put an idiot in charge of his fleet, B- never attacked the towers himself and C- most importantly didn'tbring Mel with him.

 

Had Mel been at the battle I get the feeling there's no chance at all that Tyrion's trick would have worked. I'm not sure if that would have saved him from the Tyrell/Lannister alliance, but Mel could have easily been aware of that as well.

[Tucu]

21 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Except that it's available to troops who avoid the chain, which is what they should have done and would have done had they bothered scouting. It's also very close to the water. The framework of Stannis' plan is good. The details would have altered it considerably.

But that would have required a way more complex ferrying of troops to the Iron Gate. All that effort for an unused chain? Stannis would have not allowed it.

Stannis was defeated by 3 factors beyond his control: enhanced wildfire yield from the resurgence of magic, Edmure ruining Robb's plan to have Tywin chase him through the Westerlands and the unexpected Tyrell/Lannister alliance.

8 minutes ago, sifth said:

Had Me been at the battle I get the feeling there's no chance at all that Tyrion's trick would have worked. I'm not sure if that would have saved him from the Tyrell/Lannister alliance, but Mel could have easily been aware of that as well.

Mel had a vision Stannis host being smashed by the "Renly"/Tyrells forces. She thought she changed that future by killing Renly; she was wrong (as usual).

[sifth]

2 minutes ago, Tucu said:

But that would have required a way more complex ferrying of troops to the Iron Gate. All that effort for an unused chain? Stannis would have not allowed it.

Stannis was defeated by 3 factors beyond his control: enhanced wildfire yield from the resurgence of magic, Edmure ruining Robb's plan to have Tywin chase him through the Westerlands and the unexpected Tyrell/Lannister alliance.

Mel had a vision Stannis host being smashed by the "Renly"/Tyrells forces. She thought she changed that future by killing Renly; she was wrong (as usual).

 

She also frequently looked for dangers to herself and to her king. She's actually been quite good at predicting the future, she just doesn't always understand the vision right.

[John Doe]

Putting someone else in charge wouldn't have solved any problems for Stannis, the captains of the fleet were largely in agreement with Imry. 

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

4 hours ago, Sullen said:

Stannis had waaaay more ships than the Iron Fleet at Fair Isle.

Not that the victory isn't impressive, but to act as if the odds were against him is disingenuous. 

I don't know about "waaaay more" but yes Stannis certainly had a fairly decent advantage in both number of ships and tonnage.

The part that seems to be impressive is that it completely neutralised the Iron Fleet as a fighting force, after Fair Isle it seems like they had basically nothing to defend themselves with navally, so in terms of proportion of forces destroyed it could be the equivalent of Cannae or worse, which makes it strange to me that there seems to be no long term military consequences from this battle on the Ironborn.

Of course the larger problem could be that Ironborn are still believed to be so difficult to face at sea, despite all the times they have been beaten; by the arriving Andals, the Reach and the Rock, by Oakenfist and then by Stannis, not sure why people are convinced they have much of an edge over main land sailors in 300 AC.

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, Tucu said:

But that would have required a way more complex ferrying of troops to the Iron Gate. All that effort for an unused chain? Stannis would have not allowed it.

Stannis was defeated by 3 factors beyond his control: enhanced wildfire yield from the resurgence of magic, Edmure ruining Robb's plan to have Tywin chase him through the Westerlands and the unexpected Tyrell/Lannister alliance.

 

Stannis would have been defeated unless he just didn't attack KL. And once again, assuming the chain wouldn't be used is daft. Way more complex? All they have to do is make a slightly longer trip. When contrasted with being separated and trapped in the mouth of the river being on the business end of wildfire and seige weapons, I would think that prudent to choose the safer method and location that actually gives you a chance to retreat. That's just me though.

[John Doe]

5 hours ago, Sullen said:

Stannis had waaaay more ships than the Iron Fleet at Fair Isle.

Quote? 

 

Quote

Stannis Baratheon had descended on the Iron Fleet from both north and south whilst they were trapped in the channel between the island and the mainland, dealing Victarion his most crushing defeat.

His ability as a commander is repeatedly implied, his supposed numerical superiority isn't. It sounds like he pulled a Salamis-like manouver at Fair Isle. 

[Tucu]

16 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Stannis would have been defeated unless he just didn't attack KL. And once again, assuming the chain wouldn't be used is daft. Way more complex? All they have to do is make a slightly longer trip. When contrasted with being separated and trapped in the mouth of the river being on the business end of wildfire and seige weapons, I would think that prudent to choose the safer method and location that actually gives you a chance to retreat. That's just me though.

It would have taken days to ship the 25000 men and supplies to the other side of Blackwater Bay while being harrassed by the KL's fleet and defenders. It would also expose their back to the most likely direction from where Tywin's host would come from.

Stannis' plan depended on a quick victory before reinforcements arrived to KL, waiting because of a chain was not an option.

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 hour ago, Tucu said:

It would have taken days to ship the 25000 men and supplies to the other side of Blackwater Bay while being harrassed by the KL's fleet and defenders. It would also expose their back to the most likely direction from where Tywin's host would come from.

Stannis' plan depended on a quick victory before reinforcements arrived to KL, waiting because of a chain was not an option.

It was an option and likely one that would have worked better than the current deployment, which was never completed. Honestly how much more quickly would it have gone? Something like half of his army was still on the other side of the river. Stannis would have been vulnerable to Tywin coming down his his "backside." It's the difference between march left or marching right when you hit the KL walls. Tywin was coming from the north. He only marched down to blackwater rush to meet up with the Tyrells. If that didn't happen, then he just marches down from HH and takes Stannis in the rear anyway.

[Tucu]

15 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

It was an option and likely one that would have worked better than the current deployment, which was never completed. Honestly how much more quickly would it have gone? Something like half of his army was still on the other side of the river. Stannis would have been vulnerable to Tywin coming down his his "backside." It's the difference between march left or marching right when you hit the KL walls. Tywin was coming from the north. He only marched down to blackwater rush to meet up with the Tyrells. If that didn't happen, then he just marches down from HH and takes Stannis in the rear anyway.

Think of the logistics of loading and unloading 25000 men, plus horses, siege equipment and supplies. There are no ports between Storm's end and KL; the next port to the north is in Duskendale. As these are not options they would be limited to using the smaller galleys or loading and unloading the big ships using boats, assuming that they found a good beach for it.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

56 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Think of the logistics of loading and unloading 25000 men, plus horses, siege equipment and supplies. There are no ports between Storm's end and KL; the next port to the north is in Duskendale. As these are not options they would be limited to using the smaller galleys or loading and unloading the big ships using boats, assuming that they found a good beach for it.

 

He had to get them across the Blackwater too. That's the point and he didn't even get half his troops across the river. It was slow either way.

[sifth]

The whole attack just seems stupid, so long as Tywin was in the field. There's no point in taking the city, if he didn't have the men to hold it.

[John Doe]

22 minutes ago, sifth said:

The whole attack just seems stupid, so long as Tywin was in the field. There's not point in taking the city, if he didn't have the men to hold it.

He was in a bad situation. His options were the following: 

 

a.) Not attack anyone. Not really feasible considering he couldn't  field his army indefinitely and waiting would increase the chance of his enemies reacting to his takeover of Renly's force. 

b.) Attack the Tyrell army separately so that they can't aid the defenders at King's Landing. In hindsight possibly a smart move, it's still incredibly risky considering the numerical superiority of the Tyrell forces. And even if Stannis won, he'd still have the largest kingdom as his enemy and could've lost too many men to be able to take King's Landing or fight Tywin, which would mean the end of the war for him. Besides, without hindsight, a battle would have guarenteed the enmity of the Tyrell forces, while before he could hope they would stay away from the fighting, at least for some time.

c.) Attacking Tywin in the field. Again, not necessarily a smart move since it would require Stannis to pass King's Landing and leave royal and Tyrell forces in his back, and the march to Tywin's army would take longer than the march to King's Landing. Apart from that Tywin was busy fighting Robb, which were both Stannis' enemies at the time. Stopping them from fighting each other would have been stupid. And since Stannis and Tywin had roughly equally strong forces a victory in battle would be far from guaranteed. 

d.) Attack King's Landing. Imo the best option. King's Landing is guarded by a small force- not even a fourth of Stannis' army- and militias at that, not trained soldiers. Taking it would give him legitimacy since the throne and capital is obviously of tremendous symbolic worth, killing/imprisoning the king and possibly the whole royal family would weaken the Lannister-backed regime considerably or even destroy it completely. It would boost his moral and might pursuade neutral powers to join him instead of his enemies. And his forces would, barring the Wildfire and the sudden attack of a relieving force, probably still be in a good enough shape to continue fighting.

So I think attacking King's Landing was the best option. Stannis didn't reckon with Tyrion's mountain clansmen and his wildfire scheme though. 

[Yuzzybus]

20 minutes ago, sifth said:

The whole attack just seems stupid, so long as Tywin was in the field. There's not point in taking the city, if he didn't have the men to hold it.

If Stannis had taken KL quickly, he would have had quite a few hostages to use against Tywin.  Unless Ser Illyn got to them first.