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Why didn't Stannis personally command the naval fleet at blackwater...????


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2 minutes ago, Yuzzybus said:

If Stannis had taken KL quickly, he would have had quite a few hostages to use against Tywin.  Unless Ser Illyn got to them first.

This is Stannis we're talking about, odds are he'd kill Cercie and Joffrey ASAP, he is a "just man" after all. That's assuming Cercie didn't do the job for him.

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11 hours ago, Ser Arthur Hightower said:

Regardless the chain and wildfire trap was a futile attempt, as it didn't stop Stannis, and didn't do a huge amount in slowing him down, it is only in hindsight that we know the time and ships lost by Stannis turned out to be crucial.

This is a really good point. It's only in retreating that the chain and damage to his ships is so devastating. He still had ships upriver that had survived (who scuttle after he looses, that's some loyalty right there). Up until the Tyrell-Lannister arrive he had won with minimal land casualties. The Goldcloaks were fleeing their posts, Tyrion lay close to death in the field. Joffrey was in hiding. The city would have fallen overnight, leaving only the Red Keep.

Another strike against Tyrion. 

11 minutes ago, John Doe said:

d.) Attack King's Landing. Imo the best option. King's Landing is guarded by a small force- not even a fourth of Stannis' army- and militias at that, not trained soldiers. Taking it would give him legitimacy since the throne and capital is obviously of tremendous symbolic worth, killing/imprisoning the king and possibly the whole royal family would weaken the Lannister-backed regime considerably or even destroy it completely. It would boost his moral and might pursuade neutral powers to join him instead of his enemies. And his forces would, barring the Wildfire and the sudden attack of a relieving force, probably still be in a good enough shape to continue fighting.

So I think attacking King's Landing was the best option. Stannis didn't reckon with Tyrion's mountain clansmen and his wildfire scheme though. 

I agree with this. Especially if Stannis wasn't delayed by a storm and the wildfire/chain didn't happen (which he couldn't expect). It's a great plan. 

He wins the Naval part through clear numbers superiority and likely increases his naval capacity with captured ships (normally not destroyed). 

He takes the city with only small casualties to land force. He has a few days to recover and repair damaged defenses.

He can execute Joffrey or send him to Dragonstone as hostage. I think keeping Joffrey alive (until the conflict is over) is a better idea because then it avoid Martyr-ing him and makes it harder for Lannisters to prop up Tommen. He thinks he might get Tommen, Myrcella and Cersei (in reality 2 had been removed and Cersei probably would kill herself)

He gets the Redwyne twins to remove Paxter Redwyne (and his navy) as a threat and Sansa (and he thinks Arya) to help his negotiations with the North.

He can then leave a garrison and campaign either with the goal of attacking Tywin or solidifying his hold on the Reach.

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1 minute ago, sifth said:

This is Stannis we're talking about, odds are he'd kill Cercie and Joffrey ASAP, he is a "just man" after all. That's assuming Cercie didn't do the job for him.

Good point, forgot momentarily that Myrcella and Tommen had been evacuated.  Still, he did not know that Cersei had Ser Ilyn on standby.  Anyway, having KL and the Iron Throne could only bolster the perception that Stannis is the true king and a winner.  Tyrells may have had to rethink their position.

Stannis may not execute Joffrey.  It is not Joffrey's fault that he is an abomination born of incest.  He did not blame Edric Storm for how he was conceived.  Keeping him alive and a prisoner prevents Tywin from crowning Tommen.  Much like one of the Backfyre pretenders. 

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The other thing that I bring up time and again is it's possible Mel and Stannis might have been able to make another animated shadow assassin if he won. We know he couldn't after the Blackwater but we don't really know the cost. A victorious Stannis rather than a depressed broken Stannis might have enough spirit to create another.

I'm sure this was Mel's plan. I mean why waste one on Penrose if you only had 2 up your sleeve.

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8 minutes ago, Yuzzybus said:

Good point, forgot momentarily that Myrcella and Tommen had been evacuated.  Still, he did not know that Cersei had Ser Ilyn on standby.  Anyway, having KL and the Iron Throne could only bolster the perception that Stannis is the true king and a winner.  Tyrells may have had to rethink their position.

Stannis may not execute Joffrey.  It is not Joffrey's fault that he is an abomination born of incest.  He did not blame Edric Storm for how he was conceived.  Keeping him alive and a prisoner prevents Tywin from crowning Tommen.  Much like one of the Backfyre pretenders. 

I'm pretty sure he'd kill Joffrey, for the crime of "trying to steal his throne". This guy was willing to use his primitive Death Note to kill Robb, probably the most just of the 5 kings in the war; heck he named Joffrey as well, shortly before Robb.

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29 minutes ago, GallowsKnight said:

He can execute Joffrey or send him to Dragonstone as hostage. I think keeping Joffrey alive (until the conflict is over) is a better idea because then it avoid Martyr-ing him and makes it harder for Lannisters to prop up Tommen. He thinks he might get Tommen, Myrcella and Cersei (in reality 2 had been removed and Cersei probably would kill herself)

Who knows how long Rosby would have defied Stannis though, maybe he would have captured Tommen soon after taking King's Landing.

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31 minutes ago, GallowsKnight said:

This is a really good point. It's only in retreating that the chain and damage to his ships is so devastating. He still had ships upriver that had survived (who scuttle after he looses, that's some loyalty right there). Up until the Tyrell-Lannister arrive he had won with minimal land casualties. The Goldcloaks were fleeing their posts, Tyrion lay close to death in the field. Joffrey was in hiding. The city would have fallen overnight, leaving only the Red Keep.

Another strike against Tyrion. 

I agree with this. Especially if Stannis wasn't delayed by a storm and the wildfire/chain didn't happen (which he couldn't expect). It's a great plan. 

He wins the Naval part through clear numbers superiority and likely increases his naval capacity with captured ships (normally not destroyed). 

He takes the city with only small casualties to land force. He has a few days to recover and repair damaged defenses.

He can execute Joffrey or send him to Dragonstone as hostage. I think keeping Joffrey alive (until the conflict is over) is a better idea because then it avoid Martyr-ing him and makes it harder for Lannisters to prop up Tommen. He thinks he might get Tommen, Myrcella and Cersei (in reality 2 had been removed and Cersei probably would kill herself)

He gets the Redwyne twins to remove Paxter Redwyne (and his navy) as a threat and Sansa (and he thinks Arya) to help his negotiations with the North.

He can then leave a garrison and campaign either with the goal of attacking Tywin or solidifying his hold on the Reach.

All of this is assuming Tywin doesn't return to defend KL. The fact that he just assumed Tywin would just continue his war with Robb, while Stannis is attacking the city is just insane.

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33 minutes ago, GallowsKnight said:

This is a really good point. It's only in retreating that the chain and damage to his ships is so devastating. He still had ships upriver that had survived (who scuttle after he looses, that's some loyalty right there). Up until the Tyrell-Lannister arrive he had won with minimal land casualties. The Goldcloaks were fleeing their posts, Tyrion lay close to death in the field. Joffrey was in hiding. The city would have fallen overnight, leaving only the Red Keep.

Another strike against Tyrion. 

I agree with this. Especially if Stannis wasn't delayed by a storm and the wildfire/chain didn't happen (which he couldn't expect). It's a great plan. 

He wins the Naval part through clear numbers superiority and likely increases his naval capacity with captured ships (normally not destroyed). 

He takes the city with only small casualties to land force. He has a few days to recover and repair damaged defenses.

He can execute Joffrey or send him to Dragonstone as hostage. I think keeping Joffrey alive (until the conflict is over) is a better idea because then it avoid Martyr-ing him and makes it harder for Lannisters to prop up Tommen. He thinks he might get Tommen, Myrcella and Cersei (in reality 2 had been removed and Cersei probably would kill herself)

He gets the Redwyne twins to remove Paxter Redwyne (and his navy) as a threat and Sansa (and he thinks Arya) to help his negotiations with the North.

He can then leave a garrison and campaign either with the goal of attacking Tywin or solidifying his hold on the Reach.

Attacking KL was really his only move. He basically just had to destroy the booms or land his ships and men at a different gate and he'd have been fine.

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1 minute ago, sifth said:

I'm pretty sure he'd kill Joffrey, for the crime of "trying to steal his throne". This guy was willing to use his primitive Death Note to kill Robb, probably the most just of the 5 kings in the war; heck he named Joffrey as well, shortly before Robb.

Stannis is more flexible and practical than some give him credit for.  Radio Westeros had a great podcast on him.  He could have given Joffrey the opportunity to renounce his claim to the throne.

Loved Death Note.  If Stannis had one, these books would be much shorter.

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52 minutes ago, John Doe said:

Who knows how long Rosby would have defied Stannis though, maybe he would have captured Tommen soon after taking King's Landing.

True. Though it might take him some time to find him if Tyrion dies of his wound and Cersei kills herself. There might be enough time for him to be smuggled away. Or he might get handed over easily.

49 minutes ago, sifth said:

All of this is assuming Tywin doesn't return to defend KL. The fact that he just assumed Tywin would just continue his war with Robb, while Stannis is attacking the city is just insane.

Certainly but normally (huge glaring exception in the Blackwater battle) an army can't just appear out of nowhere. If Tywin moved against KL he would have time to counter. Stannis certainly wants/needs to beat Tywin to cement his rule. If he managed to take Kingslanding without ship delays he'd have time to get ready to fight Tywin. He has roughly the same number of men as Tywin, but his men are superior. Being that his 16k from Renly are all lords, knights and mounted men-at-arms.

49 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Attacking KL was really his only move. He basically just had to destroy the booms or land his ships and men at a different gate and he'd have been fine.

Agreed. Well I tend to think he should have left Storm's End earlier, he waited about 2 weeks before killing Cortnay Penrose. If he left earlier he might have even avoided the bad weather. Imagine if he had taken Kingslanding and had 4weeks to prepare for defense or further campaigning. 

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I often think GRRM went out of his way to screw Stannis from taking the city. We're meant to believe he's a smart battle commander, but he puts an fool in charge of his fleet, doesn't attack the chain towers when any man with half a brain could tell they were designed for some sort of trap and doesn't bring Mel to the battle with him; you know the only person on his team with magic.

 

On top of all that GRRM allows Tywin to somehow make it to Kings Landing in time for the battle, when only chapters/days before he was getting his ass handed to him by the Tullys. On top of even that he created fall storms to delay Stannis fleet and made most of his men idiots for not thinking more than one person could wear the same armor; really Renly's ghost joke is such a stupid idea, I have no idea how it worked.

 

I like Stannis, but just about all of his moves on the Black Water make him seem like an idiot.

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11 minutes ago, GallowsKnight said:

Agreed. Well I tend to think he should have left Storm's End earlier, he waited about 2 weeks before killing Cortnay Penrose. If he left earlier he might have even avoided the bad weather. Imagine if he had taken Kingslanding and had 4weeks to prepare for defense or further campaigning. 

He should have left earlier if he could, but did he have that option? The shadow baby x 2 took so much out of him he couldn't do it a third time.

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1 minute ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He should have left earlier if he could, but did he have that option? The shadow baby x 2 took so much out of him he couldn't do it a third time.

He should have used the second one on Tywin or Joffrey.

 

It would have really destroyed the Lannister's PR

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49 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

He should have left earlier if he could, but did he have that option? The shadow baby x 2 took so much out of him he couldn't do it a third time.

I agree. I believe there was probably reasons for delay. He might not have had enough strength to create an animated shadow immediately after the one that kills Renly. Then he felt he couldn't leave Storm's End behind held by a hostile force for the same reason Renly felt he couldn't ignore Stannis outside Storm's End.

But if he could have left earlier that would be a better move. Or in hindsight just leaving Penrose behind.

46 minutes ago, sifth said:

He should have used the second one on Tywin or Joffrey.

It would have really destroyed the Lannister's PR

Agreed. Leave Cortnay Penrose behind. Then take the city. Wait until Tywin arrives. Then kill him with the second one.

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2 hours ago, sifth said:

I often think GRRM went out of his way to screw Stannis from taking the city. We're meant to believe he's a smart battle commander, but he puts an fool in charge of his fleet, doesn't attack the chain towers when any man with half a brain could tell they were designed for some sort of trap and doesn't bring Mel to the battle with him; you know the only person on his team with magic.

 

On top of all that GRRM allows Tywin to somehow make it to Kings Landing in time for the battle, when only chapters/days before he was getting his ass handed to him by the Tullys. On top of even that he created fall storms to delay Stannis fleet and made most of his men idiots for not thinking more than one person could wear the same armor; really Renly's ghost joke is such a stupid idea, I have no idea how it worked.

 

I like Stannis, but just about all of his moves on the Black Water make him seem like an idiot.

The bolded part is the only part that actually matters though, the outcome of the wildfire plan was the best possible outcome for Tyrion, yet it still left a rearguard of 30 and another 30-40 that were upstream, as well as that quite a few of Imry's ships managed to beach themselves with limited damage and unload men (who actually put up a decent fight considering the circumstances). 

The battle went the way it did because a hundred primitive mountain clansmen with a few dozen guides managed to kill every single scout over a huge area, so that Stannis didn't notice a 60,000+ army approaching until it was literally over the horizon.

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4 hours ago, sifth said:

On top of all that GRRM allows Tywin to somehow make it to Kings Landing in time for the battle, when only chapters/days before he was getting his ass handed to him by the Tullys.

That was the point though wasn't it? When he was driven back by Edmure it gave him the opportunity to turn around and attack Stannis. 

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4 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

That was the point though wasn't it? When he was driven back by Edmure it gave him the opportunity to turn around and attack Stannis. 

Still seems like a very tight window for Tywin to make it to the city before it fell.

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