Counterpoint: It was smart of Balon to attack Robb

[ShadowCat Rivers]

2 hours ago, Sullen said:

EDIT: Attacking the North was smart, crowning himself was stupid, as per the Reader's words.

I agree.

Balon gives me the impression of having an opportunistic mindset (that's not said in a derogatory sense; I just don't read him as having a long-term agenda but simply taking the opportunities that arise). The war between Stark and Lannister meant that the natural, in different circumstances, allies against the Iron Islands were fighting each other. The Northern shores were poorely defended, its forces engaged elsewhere, its overlord young and inexprerienced; the Westerlands not so. The pick was easy.

ETA, But this only makes sense if the goal is simply some plunder with impunity. Any other more long-term goals are totally not well served by this tactic. Especially crowning himself was something that no king would tolerate, for obvious reasons.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

On 23.08.2016 at 7:05 PM, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:

Tl:dr, Balon wants a disjointed Westeros.  Helping Robb defeat Tywin would just put Renly on the throne, which would lead to a united Westeros.  Attacking Robb gives Tywin breathing room and keeps all the factions in the war, leaving each Kingdom individually vulnerable.

Out of the three major powers: Tywin - Robb - Renly, Balon decided to attack the weakest. Which would lead the war closer to its conclusion, where, again, one king in the realm is free to deal with the ironborn. Now, that hasn't happen yet. But even with Roose Bolton and Stannis Baratheon both keen on destroying the other, they took some time to kick ironborn ass, and in the South the Iron Throne and Highgarden are after the same goal.

So, the cunning Balon plan you're presenting is still stupid.

On 23.08.2016 at 8:16 PM, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:

Robb wanted independence.  I'm not so sure he would have accepted Renly's proposal of merely calling himself King while still swearing fealty to the Iron Throne.

As for Westeros as a Kingdom, it was united by dragons, and as the Greatjon said, the dragons are all gone.  The Iron Islands, The North, and the Riverlands are all interested in being free of the Iron Throne, while Dorne and the Vale felt comfortable ignoring the King's call to arms.  If the war continued on, I could see a growing desire for independence in both realms. 

Balon clearly wants to bring the time of free raiding back.

And I want to be two-and-twenty again (and that castle in the sky thing would be awesomely cool, too). What men want matters not. Balon going after something he couldn't, in the long term, achieve doesn't exactly spell "not stupid".

[Bold Barry Whitebeard]

11 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Out of the three major powers: Tywin - Robb - Renly, Balon decided to attack the weakest. Which would lead the war closer to its conclusion, where, again, one king in the realm is free to deal with the ironborn. Now, that hasn't happen yet. But even with Roose Bolton and Stannis Baratheon both keen on destroying the other, they took some time to kick ironborn ass, and in the South the Iron Throne and Highgarden are after the same goal.

So, the cunning Balon plan you're presenting is still stupid.

I see you just focused on the tl;dr part.  Attacking the stony shore and seizing moat caillin doesn't end the war.   Robb and all his army are still in existence.  It wasn't Balon's plan to take Winterfell.  And as far as Robb being the weakest, at this point in the war he was winning.

And Roose/Stannis only managed to kick the Ironborn ass because Balon was dead and Euron pulled all the best soldiers out of the north.

[Duranaparthur]

1 hour ago, Sullen said:

He could offer fealty and peace for being allowed to keep the coast he conquered.

He gains massive territorial gains, the Realm is back in peace, and the Ironborn gain a source of lumber and (more) arable land.

That's pretty much what the Reader said they should have done in AFFC, problem is Tywin doesn't help taking care of Robb at all when Balon starts negotiations, as he already has the Red Wedding planned.

Doesn't Tywin also point out that he has no reason to grant Balon anything because he's already doing what Tywin wants? Balon has no negotiating power, unlike Dalton Greyjoy did in holding out for the best offer, and everything about Tywin's MO says that he'll only back a powerplay that directly benefits House Lannister; thus his handing the entire North to Roose Bolton while simultaneously planning to supplant Bolton rule with Tyrion's kids later on. Balon's going to lose his crown so long as his actions both support Iron Throne power and simultaneously insult it's power. He's trying to bargain from a place of equals when he's the littlest fish in a big pond. If he wanted to offer fealty and peace for something significant, he could have immediately approached Tywin once the war started and made a deal for something more significant than the tiny bit of the North he could hold onto once the reaving stopped; maybe the Riverlands, even.

So again, Balon's move is brilliant in the short term tactical objective of raiding a vulnerable area, but piss-poor judgement long-term. Even Euron is thinking of a bigger game than Balon, since his goal involves attacking richer lands for more immediate gain while simultaneously seeking an alliance with another power to secure Iron Born supremacy.

[Kaibaman]

You have some good points regarding Balon's attacking the North instead of the Westerlands. But to me the biggest reason why Balon attacked Robb instead of hitching his wagon to his cause is the fact that he couldn't have known Robb would be so successful in fighting the Lannisters. I'm not sure if the timing is correct or not but when Robb sent Theon out to ally with his dad, it was before Robb went into the Westerlands and started wrecking shit up. So really Balon couldn't have known that Robb would be able to successfully invade the Westerlands, for all he knew that wasn't going to happen (just as Tywin did) and by attacking the Westerlands without the Young Wolf having his back, he would have to contend against the well defended city of Lannisport as well as 10,000 Lannister soldiers not too far away. But attacking the North however meant facing less opposition from a virtually undefended territory. Therefore the North was just a far more attractive target. Of course if Balon got word of Robb's success at Oxcross before launching his invasion, he may have sent his fleet to the Westerlands instead.

[GallowsKnight]

I'm sure it was said before in this thread. It's dumb to declare himself King AND attack the North. Robb was the only other faction that might allow seperate Kingdoms. Stannis, Renly and the Lannisters want the whole thing and no other Kings.

He could have attacked the North and waited to see how the South plays out before joining whatever side came out on top. Best case scenario he wins a chunk of the North, worst case he is made to withdraw, still gaining loot, revenge and Ironborn prestige.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

Balon's arguments against attacking the Westerlands actually have a certain logic to them - "Casterly Rock is too strong, and Lord Tywin too clever by half." That actually makes a bit of sense to me. 

16 hours ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

Balon gives me the impression of having an opportunistic mindset (that's not said in a derogatory sense; I just don't read him as having a long-term agenda but simply taking the opportunities that arise).

I agree with that. He's not thinking long-term, but from a scavenger mindset he's actually being quite smart. He has two enemies, and he attacks the weaker of the two. To be fair, I can't argue with the logic that you don't pick a fight with Tywin Lannister. Look how it ended up - Tywin cleaned Robb Stark's clock. 

[Duranaparthur]

So a good compromise position is possibly that attacking the North, in and of itself, is a good move... but doing so while proclaiming yourself king is the really stupid part, because it gives you two opposing objectives. In which case the "smart move" if you want the greatest possible outcome for the Iron Islands, might still be to get offers from both sides before committing your forces one way or another, but the more opportunistic and "safe move" would be to just attack the North without saying anything about who you support, and then offer your services to whichever king needs them.

Perhaps Balon could have reaved the North, betting against Robb, and then made an alliance with either Stannis or Tywin for the Blackwater?

[Runaway Penguin]

Problem is that in either case, once war is ended, nobody would be willing to let them loot, rape and pillage their way around the North. Whoever ends on the top prefers to get taxes from North, and he cannot get them from villages depopulated by the Ironborn. So at latest when the winter ends, Ironborn would get a visit from the Royal fleet.

 

 

[Duranaparthur]

In which case the biggest gamble with the highest payoff is to ally with Robb. Which again means that if Balon was serious about autonomy and long term reaving capabilities, then he did screw up and make his psychotic one-eyed brother a genius in comparison.

[Shouldve Taken The Black]

4 minutes ago, Duranaparthur said:

In which case the biggest gamble with the highest payoff is to ally with Robb.

Perhaps...but from Balon's perspective the North was just as much of an enemy as the rest of the 7K. He could, maybe, make a short-term alliance with Robb, but how long would that last? Sooner or later Balon wants to start raiding the North too. Also, an alliance with Robb brings him into direct conflict with Tywin, which he wants to avoid. 

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

16 hours ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:

I see you just focused on the tl;dr part.  Attacking the stony shore and seizing moat caillin doesn't end the war.   Robb and all his army are still in existence.  It wasn't Balon's plan to take Winterfell.  And as far as Robb being the weakest, at this point in the war he was winning.

He was winning for the time being, but he had no realistic chance of actually winning the game long term. He couldn't take Casterly Rock, he couldn't take King's Landing, he could only hope to either sue for peace on terms more or less beneficial terms, or maybe get away from the table with his winnings, withdrawing behind Moat Cailin. Balon fucked up all that for him, effectively aiding the factions that actually had the chance to win (and, having won, to deal with the ironborn).

16 hours ago, Bold Barry Whitebeard said:

And Roose/Stannis only managed to kick the Ironborn ass because Balon was dead and Euron pulled all the best soldiers out of the north.

Counter: the only reason the ironborn are doing that well right now is Tywin Lannister's completely unpredictable death in the crapper, and Cersei at the helm. With Lord Tywin running the affairs, the krakens would be in deeper shit still.

[Sullen]

17 hours ago, Duranaparthur said:

Doesn't Tywin also point out that he has no reason to grant Balon anything because he's already doing what Tywin wants?

Only because Tywin already has a rock-solid way to take care of Robb. Without the Red Wedding, Robb could potentially make his way North, if danger proves too great (ie: if Moat Cailin falls), the Ironborn would retreat to the Isles, which leaves Tywin with two factions, Robb and Balon, now seeing him as an immediate threat and focusing on him.

The North and the Iron Islands won't ally, but after a point, they certainly won't be fighting each other either.

[Duranaparthur]

4 hours ago, Sullen said:

Only because Tywin already has a rock-solid way to take care of Robb. Without the Red Wedding, Robb could potentially make his way North, if danger proves too great (ie: if Moat Cailin falls), the Ironborn would retreat to the Isles, which leaves Tywin with two factions, Robb and Balon, now seeing him as an immediate threat and focusing on him.

The North and the Iron Islands won't ally, but after a point, they certainly won't be fighting each other either.

At the time that Balon decides to attack the North, the Red Wedding isn't even a glare in Tywin's eye; Robb has beaten Jaime's army and captured him, while the Northmen and Lannister armies still occupy the Riverlands. Tywin is still thinking predominantly of taking down Robb in the field, if possible, and Robb has the allegiance of the Freys at this point, on the cusp of his greatest strategic position of the war where his whole army invades the Westerlands and he still holds Winterfell through Bran. Plus the Baratheon brothers are both still alive and formidable, putting pressure on all four of the then kings to effect some dramatic reversals.

If Balon is patient, this is the moment where you make a deal with one power player to increase your position; you control the least powerful segment of Westeros, behind even the Riverlands, and the only way to ensure any long term reaving "rights" is to play kingmaker for someone. Stannis will accept any ships and considers the North and Trident in Rebellion, thus making them possible prizes; Renly has a powerful army and is willing to reward people who side with him against the Lannister-Baratheons; Robb brings a formidable sanctuary ally with the most difficult to invade kingdom and wants independence, and would be open to dissolving even more of the "Seven Kingdoms"; and Tywin's the one common enemy of all of the above but has money and men holding the Throne itself.

Balon could make himself a necessary ally and kingmaker to any one player and get some kind of long-term concessions. Instead, he gives a free hand to three of the kings while still being the poor, easily squashed runner up dpeending on who wins the war. Tywin won't give him anything, because he's going to be spread thin of his own volition over land that Tywin thinks belongs to his grandson; Renly might give him something, but has no reason to until Balon starts attacking common foes; Stannis will fight him, as will Robb.

Only the Reach lords might be willing to give him the North, but they ain't going to let him keep the crown or raid the Kingdom they have their eye on.

5 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

Perhaps...but from Balon's perspective the North was just as much of an enemy as the rest of the 7K. He could, maybe, make a short-term alliance with Robb, but how long would that last? Sooner or later Balon wants to start raiding the North too. Also, an alliance with Robb brings him into direct conflict with Tywin, which he wants to avoid. 

Short term alliances can work wonderfully if you play them right, like Otto Von Bismarck. He managed to fight and conquer land from Austria, than turn around and ally with them against France, and Germany was initially constructed of an alliance that slowly got subsumed by Prussia. Treaties and diplomacy are wars of manuever, especially for those who need room to maneuver. A divided Westeros gives the Iron Islands a place to raid with no single super-power opposed to them; Tywin by himself is bad enough, but Tywin plus the Tyrells is going to kill you. If Balon wanted long term raiding capabilities, he either needs to increase Iron Island power to match the other kingdoms, or ally with Robb long enough to break the Iron Throne.

[Sullen]

24 minutes ago, Duranaparthur said:

At the time that Balon decides to attack the North, the Red Wedding isn't even a glare in Tywin's eye; Robb has beaten Jaime's army and captured him, while the Northmen and Lannister armies still occupy the Riverlands. Tywin is still thinking predominantly of taking down Robb in the field, if possible, and Robb has the allegiance of the Freys at this point, on the cusp of his greatest strategic position of the war where his whole army invades the Westerlands and he still holds Winterfell through Bran. Plus the Baratheon brothers are both still alive and formidable, putting pressure on all four of the then kings to effect some dramatic reversals.

If Balon is patient, this is the moment where you make a deal with one power player to increase your position; you control the least powerful segment of Westeros, behind even the Riverlands, and the only way to ensure any long term reaving "rights" is to play kingmaker for someone. Stannis will accept any ships and considers the North and Trident in Rebellion, thus making them possible prizes; Renly has a powerful army and is willing to reward people who side with him against the Lannister-Baratheons; Robb brings a formidable sanctuary ally with the most difficult to invade kingdom and wants independence, and would be open to dissolving even more of the "Seven Kingdoms"; and Tywin's the one common enemy of all of the above but has money and men holding the Throne itself.

Balon could make himself a necessary ally and kingmaker to any one player and get some kind of long-term concessions. Instead, he gives a free hand to three of the kings while still being the poor, easily squashed runner up dpeending on who wins the war. Tywin won't give him anything, because he's going to be spread thin of his own volition over land that Tywin thinks belongs to his grandson; Renly might give him something, but has no reason to until Balon starts attacking common foes; Stannis will fight him, as will Robb.

Only the Reach lords might be willing to give him the North, but they ain't going to let him keep the crown or raid the Kingdom they have their eye on.

Tywin only rejects Balon as a potential ally once the Red Wedding is planned, before that, the alliance was very much a possibility. Tyrion considered a betrothal of Myrcella to Theon to be believable (and would have gone through it should Varys have been to one to leak his scheme) and Tywin considers a marriage of Cersei to either Balon (his wife being sickly) or Theon.

Again, this is assuming Balon accepts to bend the knee in exchange for his lands and his service, but Tywin would hardly have a reason to turn him down should Robb still be going strong.

Crowning himself was his mistake, attacking the North, even without declaring allegiance to either Stannis or Joffrey, was not.

[Free Northman Reborn]

20 minutes ago, Sullen said:

Tywin only rejects Balon as a potential ally once the Red Wedding is planned, before that, the alliance was very much a possibility. Tyrion considered a betrothal of Myrcella to Theon to be believable (and would have gone through it should Varys have been to one to leak his scheme) and Tywin considers a marriage of Cersei to either Balon (his wife being sickly) or Theon.

Again, this is assuming Balon accepts to bend the knee in exchange for his lands and his service, but Tywin would hardly have a reason to turn him down should Robb still be going strong.

Crowning himself was his mistake, attacking the North, even without declaring allegiance to either Stannis or Joffrey, was not.

But that is where you err. Crowning himself was his chief goal. His choice of target was of secondary importance, intended merely to support his primary aim. So given his primary aim, he chose the worst possible target in support of achieving it. With a crown as his ultimate goal, joining with the other rebels - the North and the Riverlands - was his ONLY choice.

[Sullen]

8 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But that is where you err. Crowning himself was his chief goal. His choice of target was of secondary importance, intended merely to support his primary aim. So given his primary aim, he chose the worst possible target in support of achieving it. With a crown as his ultimate goal, joining with the other rebels - the North and the Riverlands - was his ONLY choice.

His chief goal is to gain more power and restore prestige to the Ironborn.

Crowning himself is a (bad) way to do that, raiding the Westerlands would a been a short-term way to get wealth, taking the Northern West Coast in exchange for fealty would have been the best case scenario.

Considering his speech to Asha about bending the knee and the fact that he initiated negotiations with the Iron Throne, he was probably aiming for the latter, but he was too slow and was beaten to the punch by Bolton and Frey.

[Jasta11]

On 24/08/2016 at 1:34 PM, Sullen said:

He actually did try to negotiate, with Tywin.

Mace and the Reach lords were all in favour of giving him the land.

 

EDIT: Attacking the North was smart, crowning himself was stupid, as per the Reader's words.

He negociated too late, however. Tywin had no interest in rewarding a tool that already did its job, and at the time he was the one whose opinion mattered.

Sorta agree with the edit. Had Balon signed an alliance with Tywin, then attacked Robb in exchange for a guarantee of territory and/more autonomy, it would have been a decent plan. Crowning himself only means he makes an enemy out of anyone who's on the IT in the mid-long term.

[fenr1s]

3 minutes ago, Jasta11 said:

He negociated too late, however. Tywin had no interest in rewarding a tool that already did its job, and at the time he was the one whose opinion mattered.

Sorta agree with the edit. Had Balon signed an alliance with Tywin, then attacked Robb in exchange for a guarantee of territory and/more autonomy, it would have been a decent plan. Crowning himself only means he makes an enemy out of anyone who's on the IT in the mid-long term.

The problem of forming an alliance early with Tywin early is that Tywin was in a dire position at that point. Jamie's army had just been routed and Tywin was trapped between Renly's huge army and Robb. Attacking far away in the North would also not have helped Tywin in the short run.

To directly aid Tywin, Balon would have to commit a large number of Ironborn to fight in the Riverlands or in the Reach, hoping to draw some of Renlys men away.

This would mean large casualties for the Ironborn for a questionable chance of success. Balon clearly wanted to avoid large casualties, since he only attacked the North with a small number of his forces and didnt even commit troops to attack vulnerable positions like Borrowtown, Torrhen's Square or Flint's Fingers.

Sailing his fleet all around Westeros to aid Kingslanding would have taken much to long to be of benefit.

[fenr1s]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But that is where you err. Crowning himself was his chief goal. His choice of target was of secondary importance, intended merely to support his primary aim. So given his primary aim, he chose the worst possible target in support of achieving it. With a crown as his ultimate goal, joining with the other rebels - the North and the Riverlands - was his ONLY choice.

His goal was not to crown himself but to return the Ironborn to past greatness and get back to the old way of reaving and praying on the weak.

To achieve that a long war that weakens all regions and with some chance might lead to the dissolution of the Ironthrone is of great benefit.

Aiding Robb gets him nothing in the long term but would cost the lives of thousands of Ironborn. Balon could never hope to hold the Wersterlands which would be very difficult to conquer in the first place, even with Robbs support.

Robb who is without a fleet of his own can not aid him in defending the Ironislands against retaliation either.