Heresy Project X+Y=J: Wrap up thread

[Laughing Storm Reborn]

The horned god pagan symbolism is too good to be a dead end, it clearly trumps any other on the difficulty scale... Either it's an unbelievable coincidence or we have something great here

[Sly Wren]

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Dany is too young by quite some months,

They could be protecting the pregnant Ashara--Dany could still be months away from making her entrance, but she and Ashara would still be important to defend.

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

plus her birth had witnesses.

Dany's /backstory is a HUGE mess. Something is very wrong with the story she's been told and what she personally remembers. Something is very wrong from Dany's first POV in Game. The idea that Rhaella followed her well-established track record of misery and miscarriage and that Dany was brought in to bolster the Targ ranks has to be on the table.

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Timelines do not match. Jon is same-ish age as Robb. Timelines do match. In either case you would end up one kid short.

Not quite sure I'm following you--if Rhaegar already had both Rhaenys and Aegon, he only needed one more, right? That's what Dany sees in the House of the Undying when Rhaegar looks as her and says "there must be one more," right? 

So, if he was expecting a child with Ashara when he died, why would that not fit the timelines?

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

If Lyanna was not there, but further in Dorne, Kingsguard can just send Ned away and tell him she's not there. If Dayne is the father, there is no honor bound reason to be there and fight.

1. Even they are protecting Ashara and her child, Ned's not going to be put off by "your sister isn't here." Ned's in Dorne for a reason--looking for his sister, or coming to get the remaining KG to surrender, something. Putting him off would be VERY difficult.

2. Agreed that if Dayne is the father, they would not be fighting over Lyanna's child. But they could still be fighting over Ashara's impending child by Rhaegar.

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Also, Rhaegar would be the ultimate wingman if he did let go kingdom to ruin just to cover the fact his bro eloped with Lyanna.

Agreed--if that's what Rhaegar did, he completely deserved that hammer to the chest.

But we've seen two Stark maids, both of whom Martin has explicitly told us echo Lyanna, both "end up" with people who did not originally take them: Arya--who ends up with Yoren (a sworn brother) and with the Brotherhood without Banners (sworn brothers to a dead king who STILL do his bidding and follow his mission) and Sansa, who ends up with Baelish.

Both girls are NOT kidnapped. Nor do they elope. They are running from the Lannisters and end up with these people. 

So, the idea that Lyanna ended up with Rhaegar and CO. as Arya ends up with the Brotherhood (who CLEARLY echo Arthur and Co.--Beric is full of all sorts of Dayne imagery)--that would work. 

It was an accident due to a plot by other people. Most likely the Lannisters--Tywin had plenty of reason to start a war. 

But Rhaegar, too, wanted his father off of that throne. And he sat the war out on purpose.

 

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

If Dayne is the father and Lyanna is there, it makes no sense for the Kingsguard (3 of them) be there.

Unless they are guarding someone else--Rhaegar's baby mama.

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

If Ashara and Lyanna is there and Ashara bears the Targ child, her story is a complete fabrication

But we know there are problems with Ashara's story--Martin said flat out in an SSM that Ashara's body was never found.

And we know Ashara matters--she and/or her suicide show up in every single book.

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

- and "Promise me, Ned" does not really make sense. Why would Ned then present Jon as his son and not as son of Lyanna and Dayne?

Ned just saw Robert condone the murders of innocent children because they were the children of the man Robert thought took Lyanna from him--Rhaegar. Ned and Robert broke over that horror. Now it turns out that Lyanna actually fell for another man entirely. Why would Ned think Robert wouldn't be just as furious/insulted/miserable at a Dayne child as over a Rhaegar child?

Jon would still be in danger.

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Plus they can just let Ned see Lyanna while keeping him from Ashara.

But not without letting him know about Ashara. They've gotten the news from King's Landing about Aerys' death. Very likely they also got the news about the murders of Rhaegar's kids--there's been plenty of time. If they are guarding the mother of Rhaegar's last impending child--a child with no connection to Ned and thus no leverage to use with him--seems like they'd go to the mat for that impending baby.

4 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Basically all attempts to make the plot more convoluted are... Not convincing. They do not make sense from storytelling or real world perspective.

But they fit what the KG say. The symbolism around Jon. The symbolism around Dany. The tales we have about what Rhaegar was actually after. Rhaegar's personality. Arthur's personality. Twin's actions. The holes in Dany's story--

And a dozen other things.

It isn't making it more convoluted. It's making it fit the already convoluted details.

[Black Crow]

5 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Lyanna couldn't have both screamed and be so weak/faint as to be barely able to whisper. 

Wouldn't count on it, here's Captain Eyre Coote preparing to attack the fort at Cutwa under cover of darkness:

"about this time one of the King’s soldiers being suddenly taken ill grew delirious, and whilst in the agonies of death made so great a noise as to discover to the enemy where we were drawn up, on which they began firing at us pretty briskly"

[Melifeather]

2 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Wouldn't count on it, here's Captain Eyre Coote preparing to attack the fort at Cutwa under cover of darkness:

"about this time one of the King’s soldiers being suddenly taken ill grew delirious, and whilst in the agonies of death made so great a noise as to discover to the enemy where we were drawn up, on which they began firing at us pretty briskly"

That example only demonstrates that he made a great noise. Ned said Lyanna was so weak she could barely whisper.

[LynnS]

6 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

That example only demonstrates that he made a great noise. Ned said Lyanna was so weak she could barely whisper.

If it was Lyanna who jumped from the tower and not Ashara; she might scream while falling and end up in a bed of blood. This might also explain why Ashara's body was never found. Lyanna's death substitued as a cover story for Ashara's disappearance.

[LynnS]

5 hours ago, Runaway Penguin said:

What si clear about the fight is that it did happen. So... There has to be reason for fight and for Kingsguard to be there. hence... It would be Rhaegar's baby in there. Dayne might have broken his oath to father a child - but he would not protect it as a royal blood and besides, he would not need to. "Hey Ned, sorry, Lyanna is there and the kid is mine. I deserted the KG and convinced those other dudes too. Wanna see your sis? Come on."

So what really makes sense is... The tower contains Rhaegar's kid and a mother. Now does it make sense for her to be Ashara? Nope, not really. We know who Rhaegar showed interest in. 

And what happened to the kid? Well, "Promise me, Ned"... I doubt Eddard Stark would give away either his bastard or his sister's son to the unknown - it would make it impossible for him to protect him from Robert. So most likely kid connected with the fight is Jon.

Don't really see other scenarios that would explain why it was necessary to fight the Kingsguard.

It make sense if Lyanna and Ashara are both at Starfall.  They are both Rhaegar's wives.  The Targaryens are polygamous and both women have produced a child by Rhaegar.  These would be the children that Vary's and Illyrio have planned and schemed over. What are Varys' allegiences with Dorne? 

The kingsguard are at Starfall as Rheagar's sword, shield and horse; they took a vow to protect the women and their children.  They don't break their vows.  Arthur is not likely to break his vow to Rhaegar whom he loved like a brother; nor is he likely to break a pledge to protect for any reason. Whatever the outcome of the war; all three children are still in danger of Robert's and Cersei wrath.  They have to be hidden; far from Robert's reach or in friendly territory and Ned is Robert's man.  That makes him a threat as well.

[Sly Wren]

30 minutes ago, LynnS said:

 I like the idea that Dany is Ashara/Rhaegar's daughter and she is seeing the vision through Ashara's eyes. But in the timeline of events and your argument that there is grudge match between Ned and Rhaegar over Ashara;

Not sure I'm following you here--why would there be such a grudge match?

30 minutes ago, LynnS said:

it seems possible to me that she was pregnant with Ned's child first and Dany followed.

Definitely possible. And could fit well with Ned's insistence that Ashara's name never be mentioned.

30 minutes ago, LynnS said:

 So subjectively, Dany is the second born and one more is needed. 

I'm still struggling to follow you--"second born" to Rhaegar? Not really. "Second born" in the list of kids who may have survived? Are you arguing that there objectively need to be three dragon heads and that's why there would need to be a "third" that survived? 

[Melifeather]

Someone was found at the tower of joy, but the scene was more likely the location of a blood magic ritual rather than a hiding place for a kidnapped woman. There are enough parallels between the details in Ned's fever dream with Mirri's tent scene to suggest someone was trying to resurrect a dead body similar to Mirri's failed attempt on Drogo. Compare the two here.

The fact of the matter is if we go strictly by appearance, then Jon looks like a Stark. The text says there is "more of the north in him" than his half-siblings, which suggests that both of his parents are of the north. Three groupings of parents would meet the criteria of "more of the north":

Ned and Wylla (Manderly)

Mance and Lyanna

"Stark" and Lyanna

[Sly Wren]

28 minutes ago, Laughing Storm Reborn said:

The horned god pagan symbolism is too good to be a dead end, it clearly trumps any other on the difficulty scale... Either it's an unbelievable coincidence or we have something great here

I struggle to make the timeline work for Howland as Jon's father. 

But the imagery that @Frey family reunion put together is amazing.

So, I'm wondering if the pagan rite of spring got . . . violated by Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna. Broke what should have happened?

Might even explain why the false spring was false. The Dragon Prince broke the spring?

[Melifeather]

While there is no evidence that Ashara was married to Rhaegar, I can see her in a position to serve as a surrogate mother since Elia was too frail after delivering Aegon and the closeness between the two women with Ashara being Elia's handmaiden. There does seem to be affection between them. There is also the detail of Dany being a child of three. If Rhaegar, Elia, enlisted Ashara as a surrogate, then technically this could be the definition of the cryptic "child of three" parentage.

[Runaway Penguin]

In that case you are a kid short - or you are in a terrible mess about how Ashara manaed to get to Dragonstone still pregnant and how somehow her baby could be swapped and.... And you overcomplicate things. Plus if the fight happened at Starfall, there would be a ton of witnesses - it is not any abandoned tower somewhere off the grid. Trying to fix mess by making a bigger one is just unnecessary (and likely to end up in disappointment ;))

Tower of Joy as place of blood magic? Possible. However unlikely. I shall stick to Occam's razor

[Tucu]

5 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

Tower of Joy as place of blood magic? Possible. However unlikely. I shall stick to Occam's razor

There are a few things that make me think that magic was involved in the tower of joy: Ned destroying the tower, the bones of Lord Dustin being left behind and this part of the dream:  "A storm of rose petals blew across a blood-streaked sky, as blue as the eyes of death."

[LynnS]

Would Arthur Dayne be the finest knight that Ned had ever known if he was complicit in taking Lyanna and getting her pregnant; a man of weak character who ignores his vows?  This isn't so much as case of Lyanna or Ashara being dishonored as much as it is a stain on the family and the men involved. Rhaegar is acting out the part he thinks he has to play according to a prophecy.  Something that involves the Stark and Dayne bloodlines.  Giving the crown of roses to Lyanna may have been an insult to the Starks but for what reason?

 

[Brad Stark]

We've speculated so much about Ashara being alive.  Have we considered the alternative?  That she actually killed herself?

This is still fishy.  Her brother was a knight of the Kingsguard during a war.  It was not unexpected he'd die, still sad, but hard to believe she'd kill herself over.  We have no evidence they were even that close.

In stories, people kill themselves when there lover dies.  I think that happened here.    My theory is Rhegar was Ashara's lover and she found out he and Arthur died from Ned at the same time.  Lyanna was taken to the tower in Dorne because Rheagar used it with another lover before.

[LynnS]

22 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Not sure I'm following you here--why would there be such a grudge match?

Definitely possible. And could fit well with Ned's insistence that Ashara's name never be mentioned.

I'm still struggling to follow you--"second born" to Rhaegar? Not really. "Second born" in the list of kids who may have survived? Are you arguing that there objectively need to be three dragon heads and that's why there would need to be a "third" that survived? 

I'm referring to the event at the tourney; Rhaegar's percieved insult giving the crown of roses to Lyanna.

There are too many references around Jon the the dawn sword to ignore.

At the time of the vision; Elia's son is alive.  So yes this could be interpreted as three heads of the dragon.  I have no sense that Rhaegar knew his firstborn wouldn't survive.  (To your previous comment: Sweet Sadness in Rhaegar's schtick with all the women; he does play a sad song on his harp).

[Seams]

17 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Someone was found at the tower of joy, but the scene was more likely the location of a blood magic ritual rather than a hiding place for a kidnapped woman. There are enough parallels between the details in Ned's fever dream with Mirri's tent scene to suggest someone was trying to resurrect a dead body similar to Mirri's failed attempt on Drogo. Compare the two here.

The fact of the matter is if we go strictly by appearance, then Jon looks like a Stark. The text says there is "more of the north in him" than his half-siblings, which suggests that both of his parents are of the north. Three groupings of parents would meet the criteria of "more of the north":

Ned and Wylla (Manderly)

Mance and Lyanna

"Stark" and Lyanna

This sounds right to me. Although "Howland and Lyanna" could be on the list of possible parents, right? The crannogmen are in the North.

A lot of theories seem to assume that the "bed of blood" is a bed of childbirth. The timelines can change if it is a bed where someone is bleeding for a reason other than childbirth, such as a wound sustained in combat.

I think birthplace matters to GRRM, and that it tells us something about the person. Dany had to have been born on Dragonstone. Robb Stark was actually born at Riverrun, and he was never really Stark-y enough to make a successful King in the North (notice that he was never called King of Winter, which should have been his title, if he truly fit the traditional role). I believe Jon had to have been born in the North.

I know people will hate this, but another variable is that someone else could have been wearing Rhaegar or Robert's armor at the Trident. I think there's something fishy about Robert taking a break from the Rebellion to rest and recover and conceive Bella, but then to suddenly bounce back and finish off his war. The situation with Garlan Tyrell wearing Renly's armor at the Battle of the Blackwater tells us that swapping armor can fool people into making false assumptions. 

What if the King's Guard was really guarding a dying Rhaegar in the Tower of Joy?

"A blood magic ritual" sounds like a reasonable explanation for some of the secrecy at the Tower of Joy. I think we also need to look to other "tower scenes" for hints and parallels. My favorite candidate would be the Queenscrown tower scene with Bran and his companions hiding inside while Jon fights outside. It may be some kind of an allegory for the Tower of Joy scene. I think the Queenscrown scene with Ygritte slitting the throat of the silent old man is supposed to be an echo of the White Witch killing Aslan on the Stone Table, so the rebirth symbolism is already guaranteed, if we use that as a parallel for the Tower of Joy.

[LynnS]

15 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

In stories, people kill themselves when there lover dies.  I think that happened here.    My theory is Rhegar was Ashara's lover and she found out he and Arthur died from Ned at the same time.  Lyanna was taken to the tower in Dorne because Rheagar used it with another lover before.

And yet we have Ashara's sister's account that Ashara loved Ned.  If there are children involved who's safety is in the balance; then it might follow that Ashara athough grieved at the death of her brother might carry on to protect the children involved.  While it's entirely possible that Lyanna only hears the horrific details her own brother and father's deaths when Ned arrives at Starfall. Perhaps she felt responsible in some way for that outcome and jumped off the tower in her grief.  Ned would certainly have been told the parentage of all the children including his own son.  Requiring subterfuge and promises to protect the children.    There doesn't necessarily have to be a large number of maids and servants on hand at Starfall except for the most trusted family retainers. 

[Tucu]

2 minutes ago, Seams said:

This sounds right to me. Although "Howland and Lyanna" could be on the list of possible parents, right? The crannogmen are in the North.

A lot of theories seem to assume that the "bed of blood" is a bed of childbirth. The timelines can change if it is a bed where someone is bleeding for a reason other than childbirth, such as a wound sustained in combat.

I think birthplace matters to GRRM, and that it tells us something about the person. Dany had to have been born on Dragonstone. Robb Stark was actually born at Riverrun, and he was never really Stark-y enough to make a successful King in the North (notice that he was never called King of Winter, which should have been his title, if he truly fit the traditional role). I believe Jon had to have been born in the North.

I know people will hate this, but another variable is that someone else could have been wearing Rhaegar or Robert's armor at the Trident. I think there's something fishy about Robert taking a break from the Rebellion to rest and recover and conceive Bella, but then to suddenly bounce back and finish off his war. The situation with Garlan Tyrell wearing Renly's armor at the Battle of the Blackwater tells us that swapping armor can fool people into making false assumptions. 

What if the King's Guard was really guarding a dying Rhaegar in the Tower of Joy?

"A blood magic ritual" sounds like a reasonable explanation for some of the secrecy at the Tower of Joy. I think we also need to look to other "tower scenes" for hints and parallels. My favorite candidate would be the Queenscrown tower scene with Bran and his companions hiding inside while Jon fights outside. It may be some kind of an allegory for the Tower of Joy scene. I think the Queenscrown scene with Ygritte slitting the throat of the silent old man is supposed to be an echo of the White Witch killing Aslan on the Stone Table, so the rebirth symbolism is already guaranteed, if we use that as a parallel for the Tower of Joy.

King in the North was the name taken after there were no more kings in the region. However Maege calls him King of Winter: Maege Mormont stood. "The King of Winter!" she declared

 

[Sly Wren]

34 minutes ago, Runaway Penguin said:

In that case you are a kid short - or you are in a terrible mess about how Ashara manaed to get to Dragonstone still pregnant and how somehow her baby could be swapped and.... And you overcomplicate things.

Ah--sorry for not being clear. No--I don't think Ashara was shipped to Dragonstone for an on-the-spot baby swap. 

Dany's memories put her with a man she calls "Darry" who doesn't seem particularly martial for a Master at arms. And seems likely to have been poisoned (the sweet smell). And her memories of the red door and the carvings and the lemons--sounds like Dorne and perhaps even the Greenblood. Then she's kicked out because Darry dies??? That makes no sense--she's the valuable one, not Darry.

I think she was taken as a small child and put with Viserys. After Rhaella had died. Would make the discrepancies in how they were raised and educated make more sense. Not to mention the holes in her backstory.

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Plus if the fight happened at Starfall, there would be a ton of witnesses - it is not any abandoned tower somewhere off the grid. Trying to fix mess by making a bigger one is just unnecessary (and likely to end up in disappointment ;))

Agreed--I don't think the fight happened at Starfall--willing to bet my second favorite pair of shoes that it happens at the tower just like Ned dreams and remembers.

But the mess was big no matter what. And the fight in the middle of the main overland route into Dorne was going to be found out, too. The World Book makes it clear that the houses in the Prince's Pass are tough, militant, highly territorial, and watchful--no way that fight wasn't going to get found out.

That tower is NOT off the grid. It's in the middle of a highway.

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Tower of Joy as place of blood magic? Possible. However unlikely. I shall stick to Occam's razor

Fair enough--though @Kingmonkey and @PrettyPig have both made excellent cases for the clear connections between the fight at the tower and the fight outside Drogo's tent.

[wolfmaid7]

1 hour ago, Laughing Storm Reborn said:

The horned god pagan symbolism is too good to be a dead end, it clearly trumps any other on the difficulty scale... Either it's an unbelievable coincidence or we have something great here

 

44 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

I struggle to make the timeline work for Howland as Jon's father. 

But the imagery that @Frey family reunion put together is amazing.

So, I'm wondering if the pagan rite of spring got . . . violated by Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna. Broke what should have happened?

Might even explain why the false spring was false. The Dragon Prince broke the spring?

The horned god symbol works better with Robert.He is the one actually labeled as such.Not only in name but attributes.

Howland "just" visited the archetype on the iof.

I wouldn't say it got violated..Spring had already come.What the rite herald's is change which did happen.

The Targs were gone and Robert sat tge throne.