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A few questions on timeline after the Harrenhal tourney etc.( I know this has been discussed a billion times)


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Btw all this assumes RL=J.

I haven't really gave this topic as much analysis as I probably should have or wanted to as I think I've always just kind of thought I'll wait for events to be revealed in the future books. But hey ho, while reading a passage on Rhaegar I decided to try and work something out and before I knew it I was analysing away. 

I know there will be people out there who have analysed this to death by now and if you read this, please feel free to weigh in by all means as answers will likely come easier to you. 

The passage in question concerning Rhaegar is about his whereabouts after the tourney but before the war. 

Going by the quote below, Rhaegar was not in kings Landing or Dragonstone in mid February 282AC. (My reasoning on this is bolded). He had left at the beginning of the year on journey to the Riverlands.

So with this info when are we to assume Rhaegar and Lyanna conceived Jon? since Rhaegar could well have caught up with Lyanna quite early in 282AC. 

The World of Ice and Fire:

"The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.
As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides."

With that out the way, my thoughts are on Brandon and Lyanna. 

I'd like to know what people's thoughts are on where these two were after the tourney. In Brandon's case I would like to know where he went after the duel with LF at Riverrun in 282AC and he tells Cat to await him as he won't be long. 

"Brandon Stark had bid her wait as well. "I shall not be long, my lady," he had vowed. "We will be wed on my return."

That rules out a trip North surely so he must have been in the Riverlands vicinity. Possibly away to visit Lyanna. 

Now Lyanna. Where was she? Do we think Brandon visited her wherever she was and during his return to Riverrun he heard she was "abducted". If he had visited her and was heading back to his wedding why didn't she just accompany him as she would be a guest surely? 

Catelyn says he was returning to Riverrun when he heard of Lyanna, so what is the story here.

Anybody got any ideas on these particular events? 

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Sorry I've bumped this as I have another question that I can't let go. 

I have constantly been reading how Brandon had left Riverrun to meet his wedding party on the road, and during his return to Riverrun he heard of Lyanna and set off hastily. This seems to be treated as Canon everywhere I read it but there is no source I can find anywhere. 

His companions when he rides south. 

Ethan Glover - Brandon's squire. 
Jeffory Mallister of the Riverlands.
Kyle Royce of the Vale.
Elbert Arryn of the Vale.

The Northman as his squire is understandable as he will be with Brandon anyway and not part of any party he met on the road. 

But the rest, two Vale men and a man from the Riverlands. I could envision that Jeffory Mallister may have been at Riverrun already and set out with Brandon on his journey but not the two men from the Vale. 

If he met these two as part of a larger wedding party travelling from the Vale then there must have been others with them, a vast number. And it would have included Ned and Robert also if Vale Lords and their retinues had left to attend the wedding, which therefore means more would have ridden south with him to KL, including Ned and Robert. 

So did Brandon meet with a large wedding party on the road? What were Elbert Arryn, heir to the Eyrie and the Vale, and Kyle Royce doing milling about the Riverlands with Brandon Stark days before his wedding to Catelyn Tully? 

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Yet another question on all this.This tries to build on LF's possible involvement in Brandon's death that has been theorised plenty. 

 Is it possible that Lyanna was at Riverrun with Brandon for a time. When LF was sent away to the Vale as soon as he was strong enough to move, is it possible this was before Brandon left? And Lyanna left with the party that was to escort LF? And she was to head to the Vale to spend time with her betrothed Robert? 

And on that journey was where she somehow broke off to meet Rhaegar, leaving LF to twist the story to Brandon of how she was kidnapped, knowing he would react hastily.

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Last one I'll post and if nobody bites I'll take it as nobody wants to open up an ancient topic anymore that's been discussed to death lol. Understandable. 

Ned spoke with Brandon after the duel, but before Brandon rode south to KL going by the below passage. Should we believe that Brandon spent time with Ned in the Vale before returning to Riverrun to wed Cat? If so why was Ned not returning to Riverrun with Brandon for the wedding? Surely he would have been a guest there? 
Is this a GRRM mistake or is plain that Brandon went to the Vale to see Ned before his wedding? 

Ned to LF:

"I understand you knew my brother Brandon as well."

Renly Baratheon laughed. Varys shuffled over to listen.

"Rather too well," Littlefinger said. "I still carry a token of his esteem. Did Brandon speak of me too?" 

"Often, and with some heat," Ned said, hoping that would end it. He had no patience with this game they played, this dueling with words."

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I don't think that there is any hard evidence that Brandon left River Run (after his duel with LF) to meet an incoming wedding party. That just seems to be a common inference

Next, its not entirely clear when the duel took place, but it would seem to have been during the false spring (as was the tourney at Harrenhall) since the water wasn't frozen. This gives us a pretty small window since the false spring lasted only for the last two turns of the year...

Interestingly, there is no evidence that the Tullys were at the Tourney of Harrenhall, which is strange given that it is practically in their backyard. (Of course if they were busy dealing with Lysa's abortion...)

Usually I believe it is assumed that the duel comes after the tourney, in fact the wiki (as it so frustratingly does) states the date as being in 282 with no textual support whatsoever... but I'm not convinced that was the case, in fact if the Blackwater was freezing on the first day of 282 it's almost inconceivable that there would be no ice or snow at riverrun.

Of course as you pointed out, it's hard to think of a way for Brandon to have spoken to Ned about LF after the duel if it occurred in 282 after the tourney. Since we know Ned was in the Vale.

even harder if Brandon really spoke of him often...

I don't however think LF conspired to have Brandon die... That's a bit much, even for me

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On 25-8-2016 at 5:15 PM, Macgregor of the North said:

The passage in question concerning Rhaegar is about his whereabouts after the tourney but before the war. 

Going by the quote below, Rhaegar was not in kings Landing or Dragonstone in mid February 282AC. (My reasoning on this is bolded). He had left at the beginning of the year on journey to the Riverlands.

So with this info when are we to assume Rhaegar and Lyanna conceived Jon? since Rhaegar could well have caught up with Lyanna quite early in 282AC. 

The World of Ice and Fire:

"The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.
As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides."

With that out the way, my thoughts are on Brandon and Lyanna. 

I'd like to know what people's thoughts are on where these two were after the tourney. In Brandon's case I would like to know where he went after the duel with LF at Riverrun in 282AC and he tells Cat to await him as he won't be long. 

"Brandon Stark had bid her wait as well. "I shall not be long, my lady," he had vowed. "We will be wed on my return."

That rules out a trip North surely so he must have been in the Riverlands vicinity. Possibly away to visit Lyanna. 

 

1 hour ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I don't think that there is any hard evidence that Brandon left River Run (after his duel with LF) to meet an incoming wedding party. That just seems to be a common inference

 

14 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Sorry I've bumped this as I have another question that I can't let go. 

I have constantly been reading how Brandon had left Riverrun to meet his wedding party on the road, and during his return to Riverrun he heard of Lyanna and set off hastily. This seems to be treated as Canon everywhere I read it but there is no source I can find anywhere. 

 

It most definitly has a source, albeit semi-canon.

From the application A World of Ice and Fire, (Catelyn Tully entry) Brandon had left Riverrun to meet his father and the wedding party (the 200 men Bran mentions in AGOT) who were coming down from the north. While we don't know where exactly Brandon and Rickard met, it woudl have been somewhere between Riverrun and Winterfell.

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Now Lyanna. Where was she? Do we think Brandon visited her wherever she was and during his return to Riverrun he heard she was "abducted". If he had visited her and was heading back to his wedding why didn't she just accompany him as she would be a guest surely? 

As per The World of Ice and Fire, Lyanna was close to ten leagues from Harrenhal when she disappeared. Whether she was travelling, or staying at Harrenhal, we don't know.

 

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Catelyn says he was returning to Riverrun when he heard of Lyanna, so what is the story here.

Could you perhaps clarify what you mean?

 

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But the rest, two Vale men and a man from the Riverlands. I could envision that Jeffory Mallister may have been at Riverrun already and set out with Brandon on his journey but not the two men from the Vale. 

If he met these two as part of a larger wedding party travelling from the Vale then there must have been others with them, a vast number. And it would have included Ned and Robert also if Vale Lords and their retinues had left to attend the wedding, which therefore means more would have ridden south with him to KL, including Ned and Robert. 

So did Brandon meet with a large wedding party on the road? What were Elbert Arryn, heir to the Eyrie and the Vale, and Kyle Royce doing milling about the Riverlands with Brandon Stark days before his wedding to Catelyn Tully? 

The quote from the app:

Still, Petyr is sent away from Riverrun, while Brandon departs to join his father's wedding party, coming down from the north. But when Brandon hears of Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna on his way back, he abandons Catelyn, racing to King's Landing.

Why would Robert and Eddard have needed to been with the wedding party? Who is to say these heirs from Valemen did not travel to meet up with the wedding party to strengthen the bonds with both the riverlands and the North? Visiting some (future) lord's wedding is a good way to strengthen friendships. And who knows, perhaps one of them was fostered in the North (as some northmen are fostered in the Vale)?

 

14 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Yet another question on all this.This tries to build on LF's possible involvement in Brandon's death that has been theorised plenty. 

 Is it possible that Lyanna was at Riverrun with Brandon for a time. When LF was sent away to the Vale as soon as he was strong enough to move, is it possible this was before Brandon left? And Lyanna left with the party that was to escort LF? And she was to head to the Vale to spend time with her betrothed Robert? 

And on that journey was where she somehow broke off to meet Rhaegar, leaving LF to twist the story to Brandon of how she was kidnapped, knowing he would react hastily.

Is it possible that she was at Riverrun at some point? Perhaps, though Catelyn never recalls having met her, which you could see as an argument against it. And, if Lyanna had been at Riverrun, why was she near Harrenhal when she disappeared, while Brandon had been travelling in the northern direction?

LF was near death, and while he was strong enough to move a fortnight after the duel, he had not yet healed. Also, in order to twist any story towards Brandon, he'd actually have to see Brandon again after the duel, and of that, we have absolutely no hints.

13 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Ned spoke with Brandon after the duel, but before Brandon rode south to KL going by the below passage. Should we believe that Brandon spent time with Ned in the Vale before returning to Riverrun to wed Cat? If so why was Ned not returning to Riverrun with Brandon for the wedding? Surely he would have been a guest there? 
Is this a GRRM mistake or is plain that Brandon went to the Vale to see Ned before his wedding? 

Ned to LF:

"I understand you knew my brother Brandon as well."

Renly Baratheon laughed. Varys shuffled over to listen.

"Rather too well," Littlefinger said. "I still carry a token of his esteem. Did Brandon speak of me too?" 

"Often, and with some heat," Ned said, hoping that would end it. He had no patience with this game they played, this dueling with words."

We don't know if Eddard and Brandon spoke following the duel. LF is speaking of the duel when he says "token of his esteem", but LF had lived at Riverrun for years, and Brandon would have likely visited on more occasions than the one where LF challenged him to a duel. Durin each of those occasions, Brandon would most likely have spent time in the company of Lord Hoster Tully's ward, who was close to all three of the Tully children. And, considering his love for Catelyn, he would not have been likely to have acted kindly to Catelyn's betrothed during those occasions, either. Brandon could have spoken to Ned about any of those moments, really. And we know that Ned visited home occasionally, during his time being fostered at the Eyrie.

We have little text regarding that time period, but everything we do have currently points towards Brandon and Ned not having seen each other following the duel at Riverrun.

 

1 hour ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Next, its not entirely clear when the duel took place, but it would seem to have been during the false spring (as was the tourney at Harrenhall) since the water wasn't frozen. This gives us a pretty small window since the false spring lasted only for the last two turns of the year...

We know the duel occurred in 282 AC. Brandon had been twenty years old during the duel, and he had been born in 262 AC. Considering that's also the year he died, 282 AC is the only possible year for the duel to have occurred.

Considering the water of the stream appears to have not been frozen during the duel, it would then seems that the duel occurred at least a couple of months into 282 AC, with winter slowly ending.

 

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Interestingly, there is no evidence that the Tullys were at the Tourney of Harrenhall, which is strange given that it is practically in their backyard. (Of course if they were busy dealing with Lysa's abortion...)

Lysa's abortion occured after LF had left Riverrun, and thus, after the duel (and the tourney).

 

Possibly, the relations between House Tully and House Whent had soured following Minisa Whent's death. Or, Hoster realised what the motives behind the tourney were, and did not want a part of it.

Still, it is rather curious that the Lord Paramount has, thus far, not yet been mentioned to have been present at the tourney.

 

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Usually I believe it is assumed that the duel comes after the tourney, in fact the wiki (as it so frustratingly does) states the date as being in 282 with no textual support whatsoever... but I'm not convinced that was the case, in fact if the Blackwater was freezing on the first day of 282 it's almost inconceivable that there would be no ice or snow at riverrun.

Could you please state at which page the source is missing?

 

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17 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

It most definitly has a source, albeit semi-canon.

From the application A World of Ice and Fire, (Catelyn Tully entry) Brandon had left Riverrun to meet his father and the wedding party (the 200 men Bran mentions in AGOT) who were coming down from the north. While we don't know where exactly Brandon and Rickard met, it woudl have been somewhere between Riverrun and Winterfell.

Right but the problem is the app sights itself, which isn't really a source at all... there is no textual backup for this in any of the printed material (ASoIaF, D&E, or even TWoIaF). 

This isn't to say it is incorrect, just that it has to be balanced with what we already know... as pointed out it's hard to fit the duel in during the false spring and a meeting between Brandon and Ned.

And I can't find the reference to a wedding party, but that doesn't mean I just didn't see it... I hate to use the app as a source since a number of other error/incongruities have been found.

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When the date of Catelyn's wedding was announced[29] in 282 AC,[31] Petyr challenged Brandon Stark to a duel for her hand.[3] Catelyn refused to give Petyr her favor when he asked, giving it to Brandon Stark instead.[21][30] She begged Brandon not to kill Petyr, and he agreed. Petyr was severily injured during the duel, and the final cut Brandon gave him was so brutal that Catelyn was convinced the younger boy would die from it.[32] Petyr did not die, however, but was given a fortnight to recover at Riverrun before being sent away.[21][32] Catelyn did not go see him during this time, nor did she say her farewells to him when he left Riverrun.[21] After the duel, Brandon Stark left Riverrun as well, promising her to return soon for their wedding.[12]

However, on his way back to Riverrun, Brandon Stark learned about the disappearance of his sister Lyanna and the involvement of Prince Rhaegar Targaryen.

 

I always liked the idea that Brandon went to say farewell to Lady Dustin, but I don't have any real support for that either, just that it likely happened in ballpark the same time period...

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1 minute ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Right but the problem is the app sights itself, which isn't really a source at all... there is no textual backup for this in any of the printed material (ASoIaF, D&E, or even TWoIaF). 

"the app sights (cites?) itself"? What do you mean with this? The app is a recognized source, albeit semi-canon, with all information originating from GRRM himself. It includes small pieces of info not stated in the printed materials. That Brandon went to meet up with the wedding party is hardly the only one. Consider it an SSM-like piece if info (as SSM's are semi-canon as well).

 

1 minute ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

This isn't to say it is incorrect, just that it has to be balanced with what we already know... as pointed out it's hard to fit the duel in during the false spring and a meeting between Brandon and Ned.

Like I said, nowhere is it stated that Brandon and Ned spoke about Baelish in between the duel and Brandon's death... ;)

 

1 minute ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

And I can't find the reference to a wedding party, but that doesn't mean I just didn't see it... I hate to use the app as a source since a number of other error/incongruities have been found.

There's a thread where such errors in the app can be reported, so if you see one, please post on the appropriate thread.

But that there are a few errors doesn't mean that the app-info should not be used at all, imo. As long as nothing from the canon materials contradicts it, that is.

 

Should you find the page on the where the reference was missing (or any other missing reference), please say so (perhaps in the wiki-thread?), so the references can be added.

 

1 minute ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I always liked the idea that Brandon went to say farewell to Lady Dustin, but I don't have any real support for that either, just that it likely happened in ballpark the same time period...

That used to be my theory as well :) 

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@Rhaenys_Targaryen

After a little deeper research I still can't find the wedding party reference but there is clear textual support for Brandon's birth in 262 and that he was 20 when the duel happened... So yes it had to be 282, after the tourney but clearly before his death...

Not trying to hate, and I've reported some errors before, I just prefer to find the source material since that's where their info should have come from anyway. They've also gotten better about sighting everything, which is great

and the sighting itself thing, there are times when the citations are circular, as in they keep referencing other app pages but you end up where you started... not a big deal, more fun to dig and try to come up with answers myself anyway

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The real issue is that the whole timeline from Rheagar's Wedding to Elia through the Tower of Joy showdown is fuzzy at best and very difficult to make work given what we know... Others might not agree with me, but when I try to draw it out (and I have) it's a very tight timeline.

The biggest wrench in the gears coming in TWoIaF when we learned that the false spring of 281 only lasted two turns at the end of the year.

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18 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Like I said, nowhere is it stated that Brandon and Ned spoke about Baelish in between the duel and Brandon's death... ;)

This is a good point, honestly I hadn't picked up on the idea that Brandon talked about LF to Ned and was just running with it here, not at all well thought out.

Since Cat was 12 when she was engaged to Brandon its not at all unreasonable that he would have met LF prior to the duel... (Im not going to get into LF sleeping with Lysa, clearly younger than Cat, when the betrothal was announced)

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10 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

@Rhaenys_Targaryen

After a little deeper research I still can't find the wedding party reference but there is clear textual support for Brandon's birth in 262 and that he was 20 when the duel happened... So yes it had to be 282, after the tourney but clearly before his death...

It's in the Catelyn Tully entry. I quoted the sentence a few posts back.

6 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

The real issue is that the whole timeline from Rheagar's Wedding to Elia through the Tower of Joy showdown is fuzzy at best and very difficult to make work given what we know... Others might not agree with me, but when I try to draw it out (and I have) it's a very tight timeline.

Presumably that's deliberate ;)

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1 minute ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

It's in the Catelyn Tully entry. I quoted the sentence a few posts back.

Presumably that's deliberate ;)

Haha no doubt it's deliberate...

But honestly maybe I'm being an idiot but I still don't see it, is this the right page? (http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Catelyn_Stark)

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6 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

Haha no doubt it's deliberate...

But honestly maybe I'm being an idiot but I still don't see it, is this the right page? (http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Catelyn_Stark)

You misunderstood me. That's a link to the wikipage on Catelyn. I'm talking about the character bio entry on the mobile asoiaf application, called A World of Ice and Fire (which should not be confused with the book, which is called "The World of Ice and Fire").

 

You can download the application on both Apple and Android, depending on your country. Some info is free, for expansion packs you'll need to pay (though not much). The link above takes you to the Wikipedia page on the app.

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3 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

You misunderstood me. That's a link to the wikipage on Catelyn. I'm talking about the character bio entry on the mobile asoiaf application, called A World of Ice and Fire (which should not be confused with the book, which is called "The World of Ice and Fire").

 

You can download the application on both Apple and Android, depending on your country. Some info is free, for expansion packs you'll need to pay (though not much). The link above takes you to the Wikipedia page on the app.

I'm familiar with it, own it and deleted it... so if thats the only sorce so be it... I'd rather do without.

That said, I appreciate the talk! enjoy the weekend

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@LiveFirstDieLater @Rhaenys_Targaryen

First I'll reply to LFDL, on the duel. It has to be 282AC as Brandon is 20. So it's after the Tourney no question, which points to Brandon going to the Vale to mention Petyr 'often with some heat' after he has duelled with Petyr. So Brandon must meet and talk with Ned in early 282AC after leaving Riverrun, telling Cat to await his return.

So does Brandon go to the Vale? Seems so.

To Rhaenys. I have had many talks with people on the apps solidity and it's been over the whole Euron/Warlock/Dragonbinder thing. I actually sided with the app so I'm onside with it if it states in Cats section about the wedding party. 

I just hadn't read all Cats section before. Not much people do read every section of the app. It can be tiresome. But if that's the source, I'll have it and accept it. 

I'll comment more when I've had a read of the other parts. Cheers.

 

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@Rhaenys_Targaryen

Could you please state evidence of Brandon ever visiting Riverrun other than after the Tourney, and if there is can you point out the bits that show it was often? 

From the text it seems more like Brandon spent most of his teenage years riding the Rills as a squire of Lord Dustin and spending nights sleeping with Barbery Ryswell. 

I never got the feeling he made trips to Riverrun often. Can you clarify why you think he did? 

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@Rhaenys_Targaryen

Let's check the quote again. 

"I understand you knew my brother Brandon as well."

Renly Baratheon laughed. Varys shuffled over to listen.

"Rather too well," Littlefinger said. "I still carry a token of his esteem. Did Brandon speak of me too?" 

"Often, and with some heat," Ned said, hoping that would end it. He had no patience with this game they played, this dueling with words."

Rhaenys ask yourself again after reading this passage. Could these two men be talking about anything other than the duel? Come on, do you honestly think that we are talking about LF asking if Brandon used to talk about LF when he was an annoying little shit during an early visit to Riverrun by Brandon? No way. 

This is about the duel, everything about the conversation is about the duel. It paints the clear picture of a time where Brandon and Ned speak and the wild wolf blooded brother speaks heatedly of the audacity of some young nobody who had the balls to challenge him, not some annoying wee shit who had been what? Around ten years old according to your version that Brandon visited earlier and more than a couple of times. 

Come on.

Your version means that when Brandon visited Riverrun earlier in his life(which has never been confirmed anywhere) after the betrothal which was 276/7AC when he was in his teens LF was a boy really. And that this is what gets him so heated when he talks with Ned about this little boy?

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Best timeline of the period that I know of. From here.

280
Q1: Rhaegar/Elia marry. Mama Martell still alive.
Q2:
Q3:
Q4: Rhaenys born. Elia begins bedrest ~6 mos.

281
Sarella Sand is born to Oberyn Martell and a Trader from the Summer Isles (from Wraith)
Quentyn Martell is born to Doran Martell (from Wraith)
Q1 - overlap: Elia recovered. Escorted through Kingswood/Hightower injured. Arianne meets Rhaenys (mentions holding the baby in her TWOW sample chapter - this could only have happened between 281 and early 282, before the war)
Q2 - overlap: KWB defeated. (Led by Arthur Dayne, as Hightower still recovering from wound. Simon Toyne killed. Jaime knighted.) Tywin still Hand, Cersei in KL.
Q3 - overlap: False Spring, Tourney at Harrenhal (late Q3). Tywin/Cersei return to the Rock. Lyanna crowned; Jaime made KG; Ashara Dayne "not long at court". NOTE: I believe Elia made a trip to Dorne/met up with her Dornish family after Rhaenys' birth - Ashara returned to court with her at that time.
Q4: Winter returns with a vengeance. Snow covers KL, Blackwater freezes.

282
Q1: Fires burn in KL, Rhaegar not there to see them. Elia and Baby Aegon on Dragonstone.
Q2: Brandon/Petyr duel after pending Cat marriage announced. Just shy of wedding day Brandon "heard the news about Lyanna" and leaves. Sam Tarly conceived.
Overlap: Brandon/Rickard go to KL and are killed. Aerys calls for heads.
Q3: Jon Arryn revolts. Ned betrothed to Cat. Lady Dustin married "not half a year" when Jon Arryn/Robert called banners -
Lord Ryswell had wanted to marry Barbrey to Brandon (probably because they were already shagging), but married her to Dustin instead after that no longer possible due to announcement of Brandon's wedding to Cat (a Q1 wedding announcement to Q3 banner-call is about 6-8 months - just about right for Ryswell to find Barbrey a quickie husband).
Overlap: Fighting already in Vale, Gulltown. Ned returns to Winterfell - Fisherman's Daughter. Battles of Ashford and Summerhall.
Randall Tarly has a victory for the Crown.
Q4: Margaery Tyrell conceived (has to be Q4 given her name day window - I'm assuming Mace returned to Highgarden briefly after Ashford to reform his vanguard to march south). Mace Tyrell's van marches to SE to begin siege. Rhaegar AWOL, JonConn named Hand. Ned gathers army, rides south.

283
Q1: Battle of the Bells, Rebel victory at Stoney Sept. Rhae Rhae still away. Arryn heir killed in battle. Ned returns to Riverrun, double wedding. Cat pregnant. JonConn exiled. Mama Martell dead/gone, Doran Martell now Prince of Dorne. Samwell Tarly born.
Q2: More fighting in south. Ned off at war, Rhaegar "returns from the south" and starts organizing Royal forces; Dornish marching up the Boneway.
Overlap: Trident. Rhaella supposedly conceives Dany. Margaery Tyrell born (late summer birthday, like August) - conceived before Mace left for Siege in late Q3/early Q4
Q3: Sack of King's Landing (this is ~one year from JA calling banners, consistent with text). Robb born - A Cat POV mentions being safe at RR w/newborn Robb as city torn apart
Overlap: Siege at SE lifted (this is ~one year from Battle of Ashford, consistent with text - Davos confirms TWICE through POV in late summer/early fall 299 that his delivery of onions/fish was "16 years ago"; siege lifted shortly after)
Q4: Ned heads south, Tower of Joy. Robert tasks Stannis with taking Dragonstone, Stannis begins building fleet.

284
Q1: Ned's long return trip from Dorne
Overlap: Ned back at Winterfell (this is ~one year after marriage to Cat, consistent with text), Jon there too
Q2: Dany born (supposedly) during fierce summer storm
Q3: late in quarter, Willem Darry & children flee to Braavos
Overlap: Assault on Dragonstone (this is ~one year after lifting of Siege, consistent with text)
Q4: War over, Robert and Cersei to marry.
 

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@Lord Wraith

282AC, just shy of wedding day Brandon hears of Lyannna and leaves. Not true according to Cat. 

"He was on his way to Riverrun when . . ." Strange, how telling it still made her throat grow tight, after all these years. ". . . when he heard about Lyanna, and went to King's Landing instead.

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