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13 minutes ago, The Fallen said:

It's too bad we can't send a 'Ghost of a Trump Presidency Future' to Trump supporters who believe he's going to create jobs and raise wages for workers. Or any of the other great, incredible things that the fraud has offered.

What would this Great Spirit look like?

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4 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I get that conventional wisdom is for her to act as if she's "above the fray" and take the high road. But Hillary is already sitting on these enormously high disaproval ratings, she has nothing to fear over taking the gloves off. If she does lose this election it will be over complacency, not going toe to toe imo. I say let the hounds out now and stay on the attack every day for the next month. It isnt as if Trump is going to suddenly garner some heretofore unknown "pity vote". She needs to go on the offensive yesterday, the polls have tightened to an unacceptable degree with a marginal opponent like Trump. She's not getting out of this without getting her hands dirty.

I'd be inclined to agree.

Right now, anyone who is supporting Trump isn't going to change their minds. They're locked in. Fortunately for Hillary, they're also a minority. What Hillary wants to do is lock in her existing support (also a minority, but greater than Trump's), and scare sufficient swing voters to keep them away from the Donald (by swing voters I mean the non-trivial number of people who dislike both candidates to start with). The question is whether those "plague on both their houses" people are going to pity vote Trump. If not (even if they just stay at home), that's a plus for Hillary.

Really, based off history, the high road rarely pays off (ask Michael Dukakis). Hell, trying to be inoffensive rarely pays off (Thomas Dewey). Hillary needs to ask herself "what would Lyndon Johnson do?"

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7 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Except that this isn't an unforced error. It's a deliberately calculated move: Hillary knows what she wants to achieve with this.

Yeah, could be. I suppose she'd know better than I do whether or not she's in a position that requires a gamble like this. I guess we'll see.

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14 minutes ago, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said:

Except that this isn't an unforced error. It's a deliberately calculated move: Hillary knows what she wants to achieve with this.

Deliberately calculated moves that you have to rephrase the next day are pretty much the definition of unforced errors.

And Hilary Clinton has made a few in her time, particularly when in front.

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13 minutes ago, Horza said:

Deliberately calculated moves that you have to rephrase the next day are pretty much the definition of unforced errors.

And Hilary Clinton has made a few in her time, particularly when in front.

I wouldn't be sure that Trump's support is that locked in either. If it is then he shouldn't be bobbing up and down in the polls so much depending on if he has made any recent offensive remarks or not. 

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4 minutes ago, Khaleesi did nothing wrong said:

I wouldn't be so sure that Trump's support is completely locked in either. If it was he shouldn't be bobbing up and down in the polls so much depending on if he has made any recent offensive remarks or not. 

When was this time when Trump stopped making offensive remarks?

In general the polls have been pretty stable, with Clinton in a slight lead nationwide and in most of the battleground states. The convention bump has washed out and I guess a lot of people were hoping it was her new baseline, but you're still looking at a candidate with pretty low favourability, doing that tricky succeeding-an-incumbent-president thing with an electorate that's never liked politics less (also, a bit of a youthful enthusiasm gap this time). Polarisation being what it is, Republicans are still clinging to Trump and as never-Trumpers never got their act together (outside of maybe Utah) there's just not that big wedge in his coalition to make things really uncertain.

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17 minutes ago, Horza said:

When was this time when Trump stopped making offensive remarks?

In general the polls have been pretty stable, with Clinton in a slight lead nationwide and in most of the battleground states. The convention bump has washed out and I guess a lot of people were hoping it was her new baseline, but you're still looking at a candidate with pretty low favourability, doing that tricky succeeding-an-incumbent-president thing with an electorate that's never liked politics less (also, a bit of a youthful enthusiasm gap this time). Polarisation being what it is, Republicans are still clinging to Trump and as never-Trumpers never got their act together (outside of maybe Utah) there's just not that big wedge in his coalition to make things really uncertain.

I guess "particularly offensive" might be a more accurate term. The fight with Hizr Khan certainly seemed to hurt his numbers for example. 

But if this http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html  looks stable to you, then what would unstable polls look like? Because it certainly looks a lot more dynamic than the Obama and Romney matchup was, where there was almost never more than a couple of points of difference between the two. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html  Whereas the Clinton and Trump matchup has had swings of 10 point Clinton-leads to slight Trump ones. 

 

 

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I'm not seeing any wild differences here, particularly when you account for the difference in timescales. If you look at the poll averages for both years from the 1st of June (when the nomination process is basically done) to the 11th of September, the dynamics are almost identical - the Democrat leads consistently (in Obama's case by less, consistent with his opponent not being a reality tv star who courts anime nazis), the Republican's bounce from the convention tightens things, the Democratic bounce restores distance, the race narrows from there.

Real instability would be constant, wild swings in lead, which we may yet see as this thing gets closer.

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