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The Deeper Dorne by Preston Jacobs


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4 minutes ago, Tucu said:

But he chooses to ignore evidence as it fits his theory. He removes the two Yronwoods, the Well and the maester sent with Quentyn

OK. It's true that people have a good basis upon which to disagree with several elements of his theories, and with his theories overall. That doesn't change what is good about them.

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1 minute ago, MinotaurWarrior said:

OK. It's true that people have a good basis upon which to disagree with several elements of his theories, and with his theories overall. That doesn't change what is good about them.

But he starts his theory declaring that Doran doesn't trust the Stony dornish because they are not rhoynish enough. He also says that he doesn't trust the maesters. Yet we see 3 stony dornish and a maester travelling with Quentyn to form an alliance with the Dragon Queen.

Is he reading the same books as the rest of us?

 

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3 minutes ago, Tucu said:

But he starts his theory declaring that Doran doesn't trust the Stony dornish because they are not rhoynish enough. He also says that he doesn't trust the maesters. Yet we see 3 stony dornish and a maester travelling with Quentyn to form an alliance with the Dragon Queen.

Is he reading the same books as the rest of us?

Yes, he's just probably wrong about a lot of things. When he analyzes all of Qyburn's quotes, those do in fact come from the book. When he analyzes all of Oberyn's interactions with Tyrion, again, those are things from the book. When he points out things about Doran's weird sleep schedule, again, that's from the books.

When he says Doran is using the moon as a reflector dish to mind control Lancel or whatever? Yeah, there's no way that's right, but like Stannis says, "A good act does not wash out the bad, nor a bad act the good. Each should have its own reward."

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59 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I don't mean to troll. I really think that this series is interesting (especially compared to some of his other ones) and wanted to hear opinions of experts. :)  

At the very least, I think he might be right about Qyburn working for Doran.

Never implied you were, I just know how all threads referencing Preston end, with a heated exchange and ultimately lock.

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20 minutes ago, MinotaurWarrior said:

Yes, he's just probably wrong about a lot of things. When he analyzes all of Qyburn's quotes, those do in fact come from the book. When he analyzes all of Oberyn's interactions with Tyrion, again, those are things from the book. When he points out things about Doran's weird sleep schedule, again, that's from the books.

When he says Doran is using the moon as a reflector dish to mind control Lancel or whatever? Yeah, there's no way that's right, but like Stannis says, "A good act does not wash out the bad, nor a bad act the good. Each should have its own reward."

A couple of points on the Qyburn-Dorne link:

-The plan to return Gregor's skull to Dorne was Tywin's; who knows how many people were aware of the plan. We can be certain that Cersei and Qyburn were not the only ones.

-Using Qyburn knowledge of Euron's coronation as proof of Glass Candle usage is ridiculous.  A big part of the the Iron fleet left first with Victarion after the coronation. Another part went with Asha. These are likely sources of the news about the coronation. There are also maesters in the Iron Isles; any of them could be the source.

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8 minutes ago, Tucu said:

A couple of points on the Qyburn-Dorne link:

-The plan to return Gregor's skull to Dorne was Tywin's; who knows how many people were aware of the plan. We can be certain that Cersei and Qyburn were not the only ones.

-Using Qyburn knowledge of Euron's coronation as proof of Glass Candle usage is ridiculous.  A big part of the the Iron fleet left first with Victarion after the coronation. Another part went with Asha. These are likely sources of the news about the coronation. There are also maesters in the Iron Isles; any of them could be the source.

If Qyburn got that news from the ironborn, that's interesting in and of itself (which ironborn?). If he got it from a Maester, that's fascinating and would likely tie into the much more likely to exist Marwyn network. This is a great example of why I like PJ's videos - because it's drawing attention to this issue.

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4 minutes ago, MinotaurWarrior said:

If Qyburn got that news from the ironborn, that's interesting in and of itself (which ironborn?). If he got it from a Maester, that's fascinating and would likely tie into the much more likely to exist Marwyn network. This is a great example of why I like PJ's videos - because it's drawing attention to this issue.

My point is that there were probably 50000 Ironborn that knew about Euron's coronation and probably a million ways that the news reached Qyburn. Attributing this to Marwyn's glass candles makes no sense without further evidence. Marwyn has glass candles but he had to wait for Sam to give him news about Daenarys (3 years after the dragons were born); he is clearly not a great user of the glass candles.

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The Deeper Dorne series isn't finished yet. Forthcoming videos will focus on Dornish activity in Essos, so perhaps some of the holes will be patched. Case in point:

1 hour ago, Tucu said:

...he starts his theory declaring that Doran doesn't trust the Stony dornish because they are not rhoynish enough. He also says that he doesn't trust the maesters. Yet we see 3 stony dornish and a maester travelling with Quentyn...

The Deeper Dorne is an update of his previous Dornish Masterplan series, and I remember from that one that he thought Doran was setting up Quentyn to fail. I forget the details, and they might not be important if he's going to update them in a few weeks anyway. But the point is, he may well have an answer for this apparent inconsistency.

I'm not saying it'll definitely be a good answer, mind you. There's a lot I find wrong with this theory. For instance, I have trouble believing that Qyburn is a Dornish agent, or that he's co-ordinating with Marwyn.

Preston did yeoman's work pointing out that Qyburn doesn't actually have access to the full range of Varys's intelligence network, which was great, but I don't think the news of Euron's coronation is the outlier he thinks it is:

31 minutes ago, Tucu said:

A big part of the the Iron fleet left first with Victarion after the coronation. Another part went with Asha. These are likely sources of the news about the coronation. There are also maesters in the Iron Isles; any of them could be the source.

Exactly. He could've picked it up from his sources at the docks, or King's Landing maesters could simply have received a raven.

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Here's what I had to say last time - hopefully it can contribute to a discussion this time around:

Quote

There are discussions on reddit you might wanna check out with regard to this latest video. Ceebs linking.

I think his observations about Doran and Oberyn's background are interesting and potentially game-changing... but most of the rest of the theory doesn't stack up for me:

  • I still don't buy that the Brave Companions are Oberyn's sellsword company, or if they are, that Vargo Hoat is working for the Dornish. (The furthest I'll go is that it's possible some of the officers are.)
  • I don't buy that anybody could've astroturfed a religious movement like that.
  • Preston has Doran prepping the Kingsguard before Oberyn leaves Dorne - how could they possibly have predicted everything that would transpire between then and Cersei's trial?
  • If it all comes down to putting Cersei in power and gaining leverage over her so she takes Dornish law national, then it's a pretty convoluted way to go about it.
  • I take his point about 4 levels of justice, but I don't think he quite made the case that Oberyn wanted a more just system.
  • I don't see how Marwyn and Sarella would know to target Lancel with visions - they'd have to read his mind to know that he killed Robert, and why would they pay him any attention without knowing that? It's a circular argument - unless Varys has told them.
  • I'm still not sold that Qyburn's a Dornish agent.
  • There was some other shit too, but I forgot

That said, I do think he's onto something with the Kingsguard prepping - it's just that it can't have started so early, nor can it be so essential to their overall plan. I think it's more likely that Doran realised he had an opportunity to influence events in King's Landing by timing the release of the news about Arys Oakheart. It all depends on the timeline - could Doran have learned about Cersei's arrest and Robert Strong before Balon Swann reaches Sunspear? - but if memory serves, we don't know enough to say for sure at this point.

And I think his analysis of Qyburn's whispers was superb, but what that adds up to, I'm not sure.

The only other problem with the theory is why Doran waited so long to set things in motion, but apparently he's got an explanation for that in future videos. Something to do with the comet.

 

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6 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

The Deeper Dorne series isn't finished yet. Forthcoming videos will focus on Dornish activity in Essos, so perhaps some of the holes will be patched. Case in point:

The Deeper Dorne is an update of his previous Dornish Masterplan series, and I remember from that one that he thought Doran was setting up Quentyn to fail. I forget the details, and they might not be important if he's going to update them in a few weeks anyway. But the point is, he may well have an answer for this apparent inconsistency.

I'm not saying it'll definitely be a good answer, mind you. There's a lot I find wrong with this theory. For instance, I have trouble believing that Qyburn is a Dornish agent, or that he's co-ordinating with Marwyn.

Preston did yeoman's work pointing out that Qyburn doesn't actually have access to the full range of Varys's intelligence network, which was great, but I don't think the news of Euron's coronation is the outlier he thinks it is:

Exactly. He could've picked it up from his sources at the docks, or King's Landing maesters could simply have received a raven.

Maybe he can plug the holes. But so far it has more holes than a swiss cheese attacked by a thousand hungry rats.

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28 minutes ago, Tucu said:

My point is that there were probably 50000 Ironborn that knew about Euron's coronation and probably a million ways that the news reached Qyburn. Attributing this to Marwyn's glass candles makes no sense without further evidence. Marwyn has glass candles but he had to wait for Sam to give him news about Daenarys (3 years after the dragons were born); he is clearly not a great user of the glass candles.

Well, I think you misplaced at least one zero in your count of ironborn, but running with that idea: if the news got to him via the ironborn, isn't that interesting to you?

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1 minute ago, MinotaurWarrior said:

Well, I think you misplaced at least one zero in your count of ironborn, but running with that idea: if the news got to him via the ironborn, isn't that interesting to you?

Why? One ironborn (true ironborn, thrall or salt wife) heard the news and passed it to a merchant in one of the ironborn ports. Is that a mysterious link of some kind?

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32 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

The Deeper Dorne is an update of his previous Dornish Masterplan series, and I remember from that one that he thought Doran was setting up Quentyn to fail.

 
 

Interestingly, he isn't the only one to suggest something like this. Adam Feldman does too, in his essay:

https://meereeneseblot.wordpress.com/2014/03/11/water-gardens-and-blood-oranges-part-iii-quentyns-duty-and-destiny/

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36 minutes ago, Tucu said:

Why? One ironborn (true ironborn, thrall or salt wife) heard the news and passed it to a merchant in one of the ironborn ports. Is that a mysterious link of some kind?

So, what you just postulated would be treason, since the ports are supposed to be closed and trade ended.

I mean, if you don't care, you don't care, but yes there must be a mystery link of some kind.

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1 minute ago, MinotaurWarrior said:

So, what you just postulated would be treason, since the ports are supposed to be closed and trade ended.

I mean, if you don't care, you don't care, but yes there must be a mystery link of some kind.

Treason? Just smuggling, the most profitable form of trading during a war. Think about Davos and his onions.

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