Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

The Deeper Dorne by Preston Jacobs

87 posts in this topic

He takes too much time to make a point. Jeez it takes you half a day to understand what he's got on his mind

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9 hours ago, 40 Thousand Skeletons said:

I disagree completely.

Take his Dorne series. He came up with this silly idea that "Dorne is playing to win the GoT not come in second place". 

Then every time he came up with a logical conclusion that ran contrary to his argument (at almost every crossroads), he just repeated that completely arbitrary phrase to ignore it and move onto his crackpot theory. 

Thats not even mentioning that GRRM has yet to have a single twist nearly as convoluted and illuminati like as PJ's. Ever. 

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On 23.09.2016 at 9:16 AM, dariopatke said:

Well, part 8 was really interesting and I think he got right a lot of thinkgs there.

More than anything, I think he is right about Dorne declaring full war on the OT once they see/hear about Robert Strong.

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1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

More than anything, I think he is right about Dorne declaring full war on the OT once they see/hear about Robert Strong.

Well, that is one of reasons.  Others are news about Quentyns death, Ariannes mental instability, fact that Cersei wanted to kill Trystane and because Myrcella is maimed and two of KG who travelled to Dorne wont come back. Oh, and general mood in Dorne, they are worse than Volantis.

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On August 27, 2016 at 5:55 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

 

I know that he is controversial and I disagree with most of his theories myself, but I think he could be right on this one, at least partially.

Thoughts?

I am a big fan of preston. I feel I agree with about 30% of his stuff, but have fully enjoyed every single video. I agree that there are some fishy bits to the pact that he points out in the new one but sometimes a marriage pact is just a marriage pact. Did Doran want Quinten to fail miserably? Yeah, you can argue it that way but I just don't believe it. It simply doesn't make my criteria for tinfoil which, amongst other rules, includes: "Brings something interesting to the story"

Unless Quint's failure somehow adds to the story then having an enormous, several book long conspiracy for his father to set him up to fail (and likely die) simply doesn't work for me.

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On September 23, 2016 at 10:14 AM, devilish said:

He takes too much time to make a point. Jeez it takes you half a day to understand what he's got on his mind

Been waiting for TWOW for 5+ years. A 19 minute video doesn't seem really terrible

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On 9/23/2016 at 7:14 AM, devilish said:

He takes too much time to make a point. Jeez it takes you half a day to understand what he's got on his mind

 

4 hours ago, YOVMO said:

Been waiting for TWOW for 5+ years. A 19 minute video doesn't seem really terrible

 

I struggle a bit with the idea that fans waiting for GRRM's next book to be released may feel required to give equal credence to any fan's theory (pseudo-professional or not) as they do to the source material. I want to read GRRM's canon material and I don't care about metaphorical interpretations of dreams and prophecies that require me to watch a 20 minute video or read a 20,000 (or more!) word essay and all of the 3,000 word essays written in response. 

Edited by White Ravens

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5 hours ago, YOVMO said:

I am a big fan of preston. I feel I agree with about 30% of his stuff, but have fully enjoyed every single video. I agree that there are some fishy bits to the pact that he points out in the new one but sometimes a marriage pact is just a marriage pact. Did Doran want Quinten to fail miserably? Yeah, you can argue it that way but I just don't believe it. It simply doesn't make my criteria for tinfoil which, amongst other rules, includes: "Brings something interesting to the story"

Unless Quint's failure somehow adds to the story then having an enormous, several book long conspiracy for his father to set him up to fail (and likely die) simply doesn't work for me.

Perhaps Doran just wanted Quentyn out of harm's way, knowing that war would soon come to Westeros and his soon could be worth taking hostage, or even killing - look what happened to Doran's family last time. If so, big mistake.

Perhaps he wanted to distract the Yronwoods, too.

Do we know where Quentyn thought he was going when he left the Planky Town?

...I just checked, and all I found was this quote:

Quote

That was before Prince Doran had summoned him to the Water Gardens. And now the most beautiful woman in the world was waiting in Meereen, and he meant to do his duty and claim her for his bride.

-- A Dance with Dragons, The Merchant's Man

Now, I realise I'm ignoring the obvious answer here - that Doran sent Quentyn to Meereen - but let's interrogate the possibility that he didn't. Look at the quote above: Quentyn is in Volantis at this point, and a lot of time has passed between the Water Gardens "and now". It could be that this is an elision designed to trick us into thinking that Quentyn left the Planky Town knowing he'd be heading for Meereen, when in fact he, and Doran, thought they'd find Daenerys somewhere else. This could explain why Quentyn's story starts in media res (fancy) - to obscure his father's intentions, which an eagle-eyed reader might have spotted if he'd been shown the meeting.

I checked this here timeline (which, of course, is not canon) to see if there was anything else that supported this notion. Let's go thru it in painstaking detail! (@White Ravens you can ignore this part :p)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

We'll see below that Volantis and Mantarys are the first points that news of Meereen will reach on its journey west. (I'm going to ignore Mantarys, since all the characters do.) The first date of importance in our timeline is the 30th of October, 299 AC: the day Daenerys frees the slaves at Yunkai. After this she marches in the direction of Meereen, and, having led two slave revolts, it doesn't take a genius to figure out where she's going and why. So this is the earliest point at which news of Daenerys sacking Meereen can start spreading.

The next important date is December 1st, when she decides to stay in Meereen. Question: what trade, what ships leave Meereen after she conquers it, but before the Qartheen arrive? In other words, when is the earliest that news could arrive in Volantis that Dany had declared herself Queen of Meereen? I don't know.

Meanwhile in Dorne, Doran leaves the Water Gardens on the 16th of January, 300 AC. Given that Quentyn's meeting with Doran took place in the Water Gardens, that means it took place earlier than this. I'll go further and say that it must have taken place far enough before this date that Areo Hotah doesn't think to himself hey, the Prince was here yesterday.

The first time we see news of Meereen reach Westeros is in Oldtown, on January 26, 300 AC (hey, that's Australia Day!):

Quote

"The tales are not the same," insisted Armen. "Dragons in Asshai, dragons in Qarth, dragons in Meereen, Dothraki dragons, dragons freeing slaves . . . each telling differs from the last."

-- A Feast for Crows, Prologue

But this news is garbled and unreliable. Next, we have Tyrion leaving Pentos on February 2nd, in the company of the man who's probably better informed than anybody about Daenerys's movements:

Quote

"When I sent ships to bring her home, she turned toward Slaver's Bay. In a short span of days she conquered Astapor, made Yunkai bend the knee, and sacked Meereen. Mantarys will be next, if she marches west along the old Valyrian roads. If she comes by sea, well … her fleet must take on food and water at Volantis."

-- A Dance with Dragons, Tyrion II

Daenerys has long since decided to stay in Meereen, however, so Illyrio's information is out of date. He's right, though, that Volantis is the locus point for information coming from the east. Meanwhile, in Dorne, on the 5th of February, we find that Quentyn has already set sail:

Quote

"My brother has crossed the narrow sea in secret, posing as a common merchant. Why?"

-- A Feast for Crows, The Soiled Knight

Why, indeed? Two days later, Quentyn and his friends arrive in Volantis, where they'll be for a while. On the 8th, Arianne puts her Myrcella plot into action, and heads out into the desert to chat with her friends:

Quote

Garin was in a lively mood and entertained them with the latest tales from the Planky Town at the mouth of the Greenblood, where the orphans of the river came to trade with the carracks, cogs, and galleys from across the narrow sea. If the sailors could be believed, the east was seething with wonders and terrors: a slave revolt in Astapor, dragons in Qarth, grey plague in Yi Ti. A new corsair king had risen in the Basilisk Isles and raided Tall Trees Town, and in Qohor followers of the red priests had rioted and tried to burn down the Black Goat. "And the Golden Company broke its contract with Myr, just as the Myrmen were about to go to war with Lys."

-- A Feast for Crows, The Queenmaker

Apparently none of those sailors mentioned Meereen, however. Then, finally, we get to Quentyn's first chapter, on the 27th of February: he's in Volantis, where he's been stuck for twenty days. We also learn that they didn't go straight to Volantis, but travelled via Lys, where they waited for at least four days:

Quote

The big man had been greensick every day of their voyage. In Lys, it had taken him four days to recover his strength.

-- A Dance with Dragons, The Merchant's Man

One last thing:

Quote

"The slave revolt in Astapor has spread to Meereen, it would seem. Sailors off a dozen ships speak of dragons . . ."

-- A Feast for Crows, Cersei V

The timeline puts this at the 22nd of March: it's nearly April, and the news still hasn't reached King's Landing that Daenerys has declared herself Queen of Meereen.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, what do we know?

Giving ourselves a little bit of wiggle room with these dates, we can guess that it apparently takes about 3 months minimum to sail from Slaver's Bay to Oldtown, but that apparently any ships with news of Meereen didn't stop at the Planky Town on their way through. We can see that some 2 months after Daenerys decides to stay in Meereen, the news hasn't reached Illyrio.

And we can also start to piece together when Quentyn left Dorne. He lands in Volantis on the 7th of February. Before that, the voyage from Lys (with a brief interlude to fight off some pirates). Before that, a bare minimum of four days in Lys. Before that, the voyage from the Planky Town, and before that, the journey from the Water Gardens.

7th February minus (WG-->PT+PT-->L+4+L-->V) = the date of the meeting at the Water Gardens. Not knowing the journey time between those various places, we can't pinpoint the date - but we don't have to. We know the meeting couldn't possibly have taken place after anybody in Dorne knew that Daenerys would staying in Meereen. But more than that, we know that it must have taken place before the first garbled hints of the sack of Meereen had reached Oldtown, and we have good reason to think that those hints made it to Oldtown before they made it to the Planky Town.

So unless Doran has some source of information about the east beyond what could come from ships landing at the Planky Town, he can't have known that Daenerys had even gone to Meereen at the point that he sent Quentyn to see her.

Shit: Daenerys only reaches Astapor in the first place on the 2nd of October, 299 AC. It's entirely possible that Doran didn't even know she'd gone to Slaver's Bay!

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conclusion: Doran didn't know he was sending Quentyn into a war zone. He couldn't have even know exactly where he was sending him. And here's some further supporting evidence:

Quote

As much as he mourned Will and Cletus, it was the maester's loss that Quentyn felt most keenly. Kedry had been fluent in the tongues of all of the Free Cities, and even the mongrel Ghiscari that men spoke along the shores of Slaver's Bay. "Maester Kedry will accompany you," his father said the night they parted. "Heed his counsel. He has devoted half his life to the study of the Nine Free Cities." Quentyn wondered if things might not have gone a deal easier if only he were here to guide them.

-- A Dance with Dragons, The Merchant's Man

Why bother with a maester who speaks the languages of all the Free Cities, if you know you're going to Slaver's Bay? But it makes perfect sense if you know you could end up going to any one of those cities. They couldn't have known exactly where Daenerys would pop up next.

To my mind, this supports the notion that Doran just wanted Quentyn out of harm's way, and sending him off to the Free Cities on a doomed-to-fail diplomatic mission - one that conveniently distracts his most troublesome bannermen - was the easiest way to achieve that. Three birds with one stone: Quentyn's safer than he would be in Dorne, Daenerys thinks the Dornish are on her side, and the Yronwoods are kept out of the loop.

*Mic drop*

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Shit, Daenerys only leaves Qarth in late August. What did Doran know, and when did he know it?

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16 hours ago, White Ravens said:

 

 

I struggle a bit with the idea that fans waiting for GRRM's next book to be released may feel required to give equal credence to any fan's theory (pseudo-professional or not) as they do to the source material. I want to read GRRM's canon material and I don't care about metaphorical interpretations of dreams and prophecies that require me to watch a 20 minute video or read a 20,000 (or more!) word essay and all of the 3,000 word essays written in response. 

That's cool. I mean I totally dig that stuff and am glad it's there. If you're not into it I totally get that. 

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On 24/09/2016 at 9:54 PM, YOVMO said:

Been waiting for TWOW for 5+ years. A 19 minute video doesn't seem really terrible

His conspiracy theories move from one video to another. 

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4 hours ago, devilish said:

His conspiracy theories move from one video to another. 

yes i know. I can sit and watch those videos all day. I really enjoy them. I think some of his theories are way wrote (like Robb naming Catelyn as queen in the north come on) but the videos are always well made, entertaining and fun. Also, sometimes I think he really does nail some good stuff down pat (like tower tower joy joy videos and his video on the pink letter).

 

That said, I realize that pouring over every tiny bit of minutiae from these books in obsessive detail whole spinning wild theories isn't for everyone. Just happens to me by cup of tea 

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24 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

yes i know. I can sit and watch those videos all day. I really enjoy them. I think some of his theories are way wrote (like Robb naming Catelyn as queen in the north come on) but the videos are always well made, entertaining and fun. Also, sometimes I think he really does nail some good stuff down pat (like tower tower joy joy videos and his video on the pink letter).

 

That said, I realize that pouring over every tiny bit of minutiae from these books in obsessive detail whole spinning wild theories isn't for everyone. Just happens to me by cup of tea 

The videos are good quality but they are long and requires a certain level of attention. I cant sit all day doing just that. 

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1 minute ago, devilish said:

The videos are good quality but they are long and requires a certain level of attention. I cant sit all day doing just that. 

Yeah, I can see that. I sat on a sunday and watched all the Deeper Dorne vids and had a blast. Much better than watching a movie. To each their own ya know

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9 minutes ago, YOVMO said:

Yeah, I can see that. I sat on a sunday and watched all the Deeper Dorne vids and had a blast. Much better than watching a movie. To each their own ya know

As said if I had the time I would do the same. I can't criticise Preston on anything because he goes in great depth on the subject. However it would be great if he created a concise version of his theories as not everyone has the time or the necessary memory slots to remember everything. 

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Preston sees a lot of pictures in the clouds, but I watch all his videos because he also catches a lot of real things that I totally miss.

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6 minutes ago, devilish said:

As said if I had the time I would do the same. I can't criticise Preston on anything because he goes in great depth on the subject. However it would be great if he created a concise version of his theories as not everyone has the time or the necessary memory slots to remember everything. 

Yeah. The problem is that a lot of Preston's conclusions and ideas rely heavily on small details throughout the books and so while it may only take 1 minute to explain the theory, he needs to contextualize it.

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On 24.09.2016 at 10:53 PM, YOVMO said:

I am a big fan of preston. I feel I agree with about 30% of his stuff, but have fully enjoyed every single video.

2

Yeah, there is nothing wrong with his oratory skills. :)

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31 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Yeah, there is nothing wrong with his oratory skills. :)

Except he tends to go up at the end of a sentence? like's he's asking a question? but he isn't?

Edited by Illyrio Mo'Parties

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I would also like to add that Preston is more than great in analysing previous books, his only problem becomes when he tries to talk about things that will happen.

This is really noticeable in LF debt scheeme where he analysed his GoT actions and houses woth money troubles and people in their custody (I only dissagree with him rooting for Florents) and I think he got it right that he will march his armies, likely on HH, but that whole prophecy thing, Penny, Dontos in Godswood doesnt seem limely to me at all.

But hey, I thought it was ridicoulus that Euron serves

Great Other, but after The Forsaken it doesnt seem impossible at all to me

His analysis of Ironborn was great, too.

And Dorne... a lot of hits and a lot of misses IMO, but more than great anyway.  Oh, and thanks to him I finaly relaised why Edmure married Roslyn.

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