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Aurane Waters


King Onion Knight

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So Aurane Waters, is the Pirate King now apparently and I have been going thru a re-read of a AFFC. I guess I will just keep this short and sweet and ask you guys what do you think his role in future events will be? I ask because I have 0 idea what his role will be in the upcoming books and what this "player" will add to the "game."

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6 hours ago, Falcon2908 said:

He'll join Aegon

Seconded.

Further, we see four Westerosi fleets active in AFfC / ADwD - Ironborn, Reachman, Waters' and Stannis's (/ Wynan's). Aurane and Stannis are absolutely dwarfed by Paxter and Euron. That's means, on the one hand, that Waters is hardly any use against anyone but Stannis, and on the other hand that he's hardly any use against anyone without Stannis. But Aegon cannot make peace with Stannis because Dany's middle name is "Spared from infanticide because a cross wind delayed Stannis from seizing me in the cradle and handing me over to infanticidal maniacs" and Aegon wants to marry her. So Aegon can't really use Aurane to secure the Waters long term. He needs to either win over the Redwyne's or the Ironborn or pick a third option. This is further complicated by the fact that the a triply treasonous portion of the Iron Fleet is actively seeking out Dany. If she has it, that will likely make both the Redwynes hostile to her, and also make her hostile to the non Iron Fleet portion of the Ironborn naval forces. And then on top of that, we have the fact that the IB has thrown in with Stannis, and who knows what that means for the Bravosii navy. 

All in all, that's a ton of balls in the air. I don't think anyone can really be expected to juggle that much, so some things are bound to be dropped. I think Aurane could easily be one of those dropped balls. Aegon might be able to rely on Aurane long enough to take KL and cut off the Lannister escape, but maybe not for much longer than that. Aegons goals are complicated, while Aurane's are simple. 

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18 minutes ago, MinotaurWarrior said:

Aurane and Stannis are absolutely dwarfed by Paxter and Euron.

True, but Water's does have 10 brand-spanking new, well equipped and provisioned dromonds, about the biggest, meanest ships around. He also hand-picked the captains. I don't think it would take him long to "aquire" many more ships into his fleet. I agree that alone Water's fleet isn't terribly effective, but it makes a hell of a spearhead. If Aegon could secure the Redwynes as well, then he has one hell of a fleet. Dany's army is at it's most vulnerable at sea (assuming you can get through the dragon fire).

But again, I think he would be wise to take his ridiculously lucrative come-up and get a far away from the dumpster fire that is Westeros as he could. 

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He's stationed close to the capital and also Dorne. I think he will sell himself to whoever have the biggest offer for him. That can be, as of now, either Aegon or Euron (if he defeats the Redwynes, near Antigua). I think that he'll definitely claim or demand Driftmark.

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1 hour ago, Lord Vance II said:

Cersei says she thinks Water's wants Dragonstone. His ambition seems to be of Littlefinger-esque proportions. 

Driftmark is better located to be a chokehold on the capital than Dragonstone. Aurane is a Velaryon bastard. Butyeah, both islands must be very lightly guarded so he can perfectly take both by force. And... as the saga developed I trust less and less Cerseis reasoning. :P

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Just now, King Merrett I Frey said:

And... as the saga developed I trust less and less Cerseis reasoning.

Granted, she thought this in the same breathe as her assuming he wanted to bang her, which was probably true. 

But seriously, I cant think of a reason why someone who really knew what was going on would want to stay anywhere near Westeros. Go tear sh*t up as a pirate then come back for Driftmark. 

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8 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

Granted, she thought this in the same breathe as her assuming he wanted to bang her, which was probably true. 

I feel the opposite... I got the impression that Cersei thinks everyone wants to bang her. Most of her life she was probably right, but she's getting older and crazier. I'm not saying he doesn't want Dragonstone, I'm just not trusting Cersei's judgement on the matter.  

And I have absolutely no idea what Waters will do next. Joining Aegon seems very likely. I think it just as likely that it seems like he'll have a role to play later, only to be wiped out by Euron. 

If I was him, I'd stay out of this Westeros mess, but not too far away. Depending on how it all plays out, he could have the opportunity to grab something even more valuable than Dragonstone. 

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27 minutes ago, Lord Vance II said:

True, but Water's does have 10 brand-spanking new, well equipped and provisioned dromonds, about the biggest, meanest ships around. He also hand-picked the captains. I don't think it would take him long to "aquire" many more ships into his fleet. I agree that alone Water's fleet isn't terribly effective, but it makes a hell of a spearhead. If Aegon could secure the Redwynes as well, then he has one hell of a fleet. Dany's army is at it's most vulnerable at sea (assuming you can get through the dragon fire).

But again, I think he would be wise to take his ridiculously lucrative come-up and get a far away from the dumpster fire that is Westeros as he could. 

The Waters fleet has great ships, but they're outnumbered by a factor of ten before accounting for the merchant ships, where Redwyne and the Ironborn have a further advantage. If waters is joining with the Redwyne's or IB he'll be a footnote. That's why I think he'll have to first go to Aegon - because that's where his negotiating position will be greatest. 

I don't think Aegon and Dany are likely to come to blows before she lands. But anything could happen. 

The problem with fleeing the dumpster fire is that it's spreading so far. Slavers bay is even worse, Braavos is getting involved, et cetera. Where should he flee? The Summer Isles? 

15 minutes ago, King Merrett I Frey said:

He's stationed close to the capital and also Dorne. I think he will sell himself to whoever have the biggest offer for him. That can be, as of now, either Aegon or Euron (if he defeats the Redwynes, near Antigua). I think that he'll definitely claim or demand Driftmark.

I'm not so sure about Driftmark, just because the current lord is six and therefore controllable, and Aurane may be in a position to claim a richer prize. E.g. if captures a fleeing Tommen and Cersei at the second battle of the blackwater,  he could demand her hand, or trade their heads for the promise of Sansa's hand (when recaptured. Or 'Sansa' when 'recaptured'), or a dispossessed stormlord, or... and then, on top of that, take his nephew as his ward. I'm not claiming any one of those as particularly likely scenarios, just pointing out that there are alternatives to Driftmark. 

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The problem I see with Aurane joining Aegon is that he don't have a war fleet that can stand against Euron or Paxter. Aurane have three large ships and probably rallied some corsairs ships which I wouldn't rely much into if it was to battle against a disciplined fleet. 

Mace is on a clash course to fight Aegon inland, on the other hand. Mace is Paxter overlord, so annexing the Redwyne fleet to his numbers is, as of now, impossible for Aegon. Euron has apparently his own agenda. Joining the Redwynes in crushing the ironborn near Antigua is absurd, since they support the same crown Aurane stole from.

Aurane must choose very wisely his next move. Joining the Manderlys is an interesting move, but what bussiness does Aurane have in the north?

Euron is my choice actually. Both Aurane and Euron are piratesque characters. If Aurane could slip away from the capital, took a stroll down to the stepstone and managed to get crowned king by pirates well... he must have some backstory with them. And Euron is basically a pirate for me. Euron can promise him Driftmark/Dragonstone to make him an ally.

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I can't see Euron taking Aurane as an ally. I can see him destroying him. 

I remember a comment I heard from, not sure where, in which GRRM mentioned many people were yet to sit the Iron Throne and this leads me to believe that Aegon will take the throne before he is deposed by Euron. I think that Aurane will join Aegon and help him take KL, but shortly after Aegon crowns himself he will be crushed by Euron, who will stroll in with thralls of men he has defeated, such as Aurane.

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52 minutes ago, King Merrett I Frey said:

Aurane must choose very wisely his next move. Joining the Manderlys is an interesting move, but what bussiness does Aurane have in the north?

I'd love to see this because I love Manderly, but yeah, the North is an even bigger dumpster fire. I could only see this if Manderly fed him a load of lies. 

16 minutes ago, Locksley said:

I can't see Euron taking Aurane as an ally. I can see him destroying him. 

I can definitely see this. Or feint an alliance then kill him off. I'd imagine the Ironborn don't take too kindly to other pirates on their waters. Those are nice ships though. 

1 hour ago, Aedam Targaryen said:

I feel the opposite... I got the impression that Cersei thinks everyone wants to bang her. Most of her life she was probably right, but she's getting older and crazier. I'm not saying he doesn't want Dragonstone, I'm just not trusting Cersei's judgement on the matter.  

I didn't mean to imply it's true because Cersei says. Just mean to show Water's ambition: He wants to have his own fleet built, bang the queen and be given one of the most fantastic castles in the world. I don't think he intended to steal the fleet all along, but fairly early on when he saw his plan A wasn't going to work, he went to plan B. Again, I think he's a lot like Littlefinger. 

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1 minute ago, Lord Vance II said:

I'd love to see this because I love Manderly, but yeah, the North is an even bigger dumpster fire. I could only see this if Manderly fed him a load of lies. 

We're on the same page here! I love Manderley, but too I doubt Waters goes north. I don't even know if a load of lies will get him there. I know we don't know much about Waters, but I get the impression he'd be more likely to keep to warmer climates. It's COLD up there!!

And I think you're right about him being a lot like Littlefinger. 

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To further my idea of the Euron/Aurane alliance, I remember reading the Arianne chapter of Winds. She sees and hears about lots of coastal villages in the stormlands being raided and people taken captives. Even a whole motherhouse was sacked and the sisters took away. There is also 'tales' of a kraken in the Arm of Dorne pulling ships from under the sea. While there are some awesome theories about those being actual krakens, my initial hunch was that those were Aurane three decked ships with Greyjoy banners sinking commercial galleys for the loot. The people taken captive are Auranes corsairs deeds, already hitting stormlanders coasts. A Toland tells this to Arianne and she doesn't mention or give a clue about who is capturing people, so my guess is that whoever is doing it, isn't carrying a recognizable banner -or isn't carrying a banner at all-, hence: pirates. Again, this is only my interpretation. 

Euron tricking Aurane into joining him and ordering him to raid the stormlands and in the end disposing of him sounds very plausible. But I don't feel that Aurane is running away from westeros. He just fled the capital and managed to establish himself in the Stepstones, which are dangerously close to the continent. Why there? At my first read I thought that this 'Torturer's Deep' was located in the Basilisk Isles. That would have made some sense if he was getting as far away from westeros as possible, but he planted his flag in the backyard.

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53 minutes ago, King Merrett I Frey said:

The problem I see with Aurane joining Aegon is that he don't have a war fleet that can stand against Euron or Paxter. Aurane have three large ships and probably rallied some corsairs ships which I wouldn't rely much into if it was to battle against a disciplined fleet. 

Mace is on a clash course to fight Aegon inland, on the other hand. Mace is Paxter overlord, so annexing the Redwyne fleet to his numbers is, as of now, impossible for Aegon. Euron has apparently his own agenda. Joining the Redwynes in crushing the ironborn near Antigua is absurd, since they support the same crown Aurane stole from.

Aurane must choose very wisely his next move. Joining the Manderlys is an interesting move, but what bussiness does Aurane have in the north?

Euron is my choice actually. Both Aurane and Euron are piratesque characters. If Aurane could slip away from the capital, took a stroll down to the stepstone and managed to get crowned king by pirates well... he must have some backstory with them. And Euron is basically a pirate for me. Euron can promise him Driftmark/Dragonstone to make him an ally.

Why would Aurane have to fight the Redwyne's any time soon? They're still on the wrong coast and busy with a much more immediate threat. While the east coast is free of bigger fish, Aurane has a few months to live like a shark. 

And, long term, Cersei's spawn are dead and Margery will need a fourth husband / need to be avenged, and fAegon is a great person to handle either of those tasks. Mace never betrayed his dad, there's no enmity there. 

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