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PINK LETTER


Coolbeard the Exile

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7 minutes ago, Tucu said:

We are not told if training or breeding determines where they fly. Stannis talks about training. If they are just homing ravens, then all of Luwin's remaining ravens would only fly to Winterfell, cycling back to the fact that any ravens than could go to CB must have come from other castles, just like the ravens that Stannis could have.

 

Stannis sends Jeyne to The Wall with only a few of his men, so he doesn't consider her key to his plans. He is betting on another Stark.

The Mormonts that burnt the ironmen ships are probably with Alys and Stannis. The rest in an unknown location with Maege.

At the time of the Red Wedding Roose had around 3500 men in the Riverlands plus around 600 left with Ramsay in the North. Most of them are alive and in Winterfell. Those are more than enough to stop any riot unless Stannis host is just outside the walls when the riot starts and the doors are opened.

The Ryswell and Dustin only have a left over army after the losses in the Riverlands and when Ramsay took Winterfell.

Not sure how Stannis would be able to get ice cold Roose to get out of Winterfell if his main adversary is dead.

I dont get what you aretrying to say about ravens, can you explain it further?

And Jon is a Snow, maybe he anticipates Rickon (not very likely), but if he wants Stark Arya is better than deserting Jon.

They are not mentioned and Alysane spends more time with Asha than with her men. Burn ships? Arent they captured?

No, not really, if Northmen organise and striike at night in the same moment... well at least Roose and Ramsay can die likely. And Roose is a smart man, he knows he is suposused to be Warden of the North for few decades so he needs his subjects not to hate him, quite people is actually his goal.

Dustins and Ryswells sent few men down, as few as they dared actually.

Why not, there are no enemies but that small group that took Dreadfort, he can at least send half of his strenght.

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1 hour ago, dariopatke said:

I dont get what you aretrying to say about ravens, can you explain it further?

Luwin's ravens escaped during the burning of Winterfell (Theon says that they are living in the godswood and in the remains of the tower). So if ravens are raised/trained to go home, then those birds would only be the ones that fly to Winterfell. Any ravens for Castle Black would be in The Wall or in cages in other castles; this is the same situation for Bolton and Stannis.

1 hour ago, dariopatke said:

They are not mentioned and Alysane spends more time with Asha than with her men. Burn ships? Arent they captured?

Sorry, just checked. Some were burnt and some captured. In any case there were only four ships before the Mormonts attacked. The Mormonts used fishing boats during their attack. Not sure if a couple of ships with space for 100 men can make a difference anywhere. Would Alys go on her own with Stannis?

1 hour ago, dariopatke said:

Dustins and Ryswells sent few men down, as few as they dared actually.

That was with Robb, then they sent more men with Rodrick. Few of either returned.

1 hour ago, dariopatke said:

No, not really, if Northmen organise and striike at night in the same moment... well at least Roose and Ramsay can die likely. And Roose is a smart man, he knows he is suposused to be Warden of the North for few decades so he needs his subjects not to hate him, quite people is actually his goal.

Why not, there are no enemies but that small group that took Dreadfort, he can at least send half of his strenght.

Bolton forces outnumber the other houses 3 or 4 to 1 inside Winterfell. The guards are probably Bolton men.

Roose has always been a cautious man. He sends the men of other houses to fight first. In good conditions a march from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell takes 2 weeks; in the current conditions a month. The Dreadfort is even further. Can Stannis hide and feed 5000 men for that long?

Assasins could climb the walls and towers to kill Roose and Ramsay at night, but this sounds like a job for wildlings. Maybe if Mance manages to murder Roose he could create enough chaos for a riot.

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2 hours ago, Tucu said:

Luwin's ravens escaped during the burning of Winterfell (Theon says that they are living in the godswood and in the remains of the tower). So if ravens are raised/trained to go home, then those birds would only be the ones that fly to Winterfell. Any ravens for Castle Black would be in The Wall or in cages in other castles; this is the same situation for Bolton and Stannis.

Sorry, just checked. Some were burnt and some captured. In any case there were only four ships before the Mormonts attacked. The Mormonts used fishing boats during their attack. Not sure if a couple of ships with space for 100 men can make a difference anywhere. Would Alys go on her own with Stannis?

That was with Robb, then they sent more men with Rodrick. Few of either returned.

Bolton forces outnumber the other houses 3 or 4 to 1 inside Winterfell. The guards are probably Bolton men.

Roose has always been a cautious man. He sends the men of other houses to fight first. In good conditions a march from Deepwood Motte to Winterfell takes 2 weeks; in the current conditions a month. The Dreadfort is even further. Can Stannis hide and feed 5000 men for that long?

Assasins could climb the walls and towers to kill Roose and Ramsay at night, but this sounds like a job for wildlings. Maybe if Mance manages to murder Roose he could create enough chaos for a riot.

No, it is much more likely that Boltons have ravens for CB since they have three maesters and actually hold WF so they could bring a lot of ravens. We have no indication that maester from DM or BI is in party so there are minor chances that bird for CB exists at Stannis' and even if it does and they only brought ravens Tybald would be one sending them so I doubt he would do that, at least send raven without letter.

Of course they can, there are likely 2 dozen men guarding Barrowton since Roose needs every man. I guess there are Glovers and maybe part of plan is burning? I only know it is weird for Mormont to spend time with Greyjoy.

Woth Rodrick? Sorry for trouble, but can you provide me a quote? I really dont remember this and even if they did, not all 2k were Dustin and Ryswell men, they likely sent 100-150 each, no more, I am saying that both should have at least 1k men each.

Yes, but he is also cautious to try to wash his hands of RW as much as he can  and he tries to look as good as he can in the eyes of Norhmen, he doesmt wosh to rule with terror and this will lead him to that.

Good point about Mance, not impossimble, not at all. And if Ramsay had already departed... well that kinda puts them in big trouble since I dont believe Walton can keep peace... and if Ramsay is there it can be very ugly, too. The only problem is that Mance is busted because Boltons know spearwives kidnapped Arya and Mance was with them so he will at least be "interogated", but I guess maybbe he has the time to do that.

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I am still at a loss as to why Stannis, or anyone else other than Ramsay, would have written the pink letter.  

It can't be for reinforcements.  As far as anyone outside of CB knows, there are, at most, around 300 wildlings available, and Jon has been recruiting them to man the wall.  Which means any force he could send, as far as would be known, is minimal.  Certainly not enough to tip any balance.  Plus the travel time is too long.  

Tormund's forces aren't known outside CB. Even if opponents of Jon sent a raven, it couldn't reach Stannis because he is in the field.  Ini any case, the letter specifies that neither Ramsay or Arya is even at Winterfell, so there is actually no reason to believe that Jon is actually going to go there in any case.

It can't be for Jon's presence.  The fact that he would be a deserter won't help his cause with the North.  If Stannis wants a Stark, he has one, Arya.  I don't think anyone at his camp knows she is fake.  

Yet he sends her to the Wall to be with her brother.  Which suggests he doesn't need a Stark, and also doesn't expect Jon to leave the Wall in any case

I can't see Mance having access to means of communication or any reason to send it.  Problems mentioned above for Stannis would also apply to Mance.

Sorry, but until I get an adequate explanation of others' motives, I am in the "Ramsay wrote the PL" camp.

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Mance and tormund have a plan (tormund is literate) idk exactly what but I do know Mance will climb a tower to kill someone eventually and that he wrote the letter AND evaded capture.

The only name mentioned in the letter is Mance Rayder (and reek which Mance easily overheard Ramsay say my Reek and his "love for him") why not mention Shireen by name? She is stannis heir. And why the hell would Ramsay give 2 shits about the red woman, a wilding princess, and a wildling "prince"

Mance might even know where those famous underground tunnels come out.... The Winterfell Crypts "there MUST be a stark in WF" 

I hear Mance not Ramsay even if he was in a hurry, Mance is a renaissance man, his handwriting would be much more elegant than ramsays spiky hand..... I feel like The letter was manufactured and not authentic and I know it wasn't stannis. Why not send one of the washer woman's nipples or eyeball or something? But no sadistic Ramsay chose to send a small square of skin. Mance cut it off someone. Mance is the MANce he reversed Abel the barded WF.

He went  to rescue the Lord's daughter instead of kidnap her. Instead of leaving evidence behind he sent it to an ally. It was Mance I'm sorry 

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Ramsay hates being reminded that he is a bastard, the word itself doesn't trigger him or w/e.

"Oh, leave him be," said Ramsay. "Just see to Blood. I rode the bastard hard."

And if Mance wanted to bait Jon, "Ramsay's gone mental and is flaying your sister, send help" is so much more effective, with none of the risks posed by the current letter.

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5 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

Ramsay hates being reminded that he is a bastard, the word itself doesn't trigger him or w/e.

"Oh, leave him be," said Ramsay. "Just see to Blood. I rode the bastard hard."

And if Mance wanted to bait Jon, "Ramsay's gone mental and is flaying your sister, send help" is so much more effective, with none of the risks posed by the current letter.

True.  And it doesn't seem to fit Stannis.  Ramsay has access to more "qualifiers" to have written the pink letter, albeit with false information.  As Jon told Tormund, there is truth in it.  IMHO, the mystery of the pink letter is not insomuch who wrote it, but what in it is actually true.

For me, the clues are there that Ramsay wrote it, but Marsh and co. opened it prior to giving it to Jon.

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On ‎9‎/‎7‎/‎2016 at 3:01 AM, For Highgarden said:

Mance wrote the pink letter imho. The language. The use of the word bastard (which Ramsay hates) to bait Jon screams Mance calling in for reinforcement. The repetition at the end is more bait. The fact that there was no skin when Ramsay had supposedly just killed the spear wives. Screams Mance to me. 

What reinforcements?  There are, as far as anyone outside Castle Black knows, maybe a couple hundred wildlings of fighting ability at CB.  Nobody knows about Tormund yet. 

Castle Black is even farther from Winterfell than Deepwood Motte is, so I would guess a minimum of two weeks hard riding to get there.  If Mance needs help, he is going to need it a lot sooner than that. 

Also, according to the message, neither Ramsay or Arya is actually at Winterfell, so Jon really has no reason to go there.  I think he is expecting to meet Ramsay on or near the Kingsroad.

I can see no reason for Mance to have written it and every reason for Ramsay.

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  • 1 month later...

Has anyone thought about the possibility that Jon Snow himself wrote the pink letter?

It sort of reminds me of Joffrey's murder. People like Tyrion could have come to the correct investigation track by thinking less abouts means and motives, but of the reaction caused by an incident, in that case the dwarf mummers show. That was the outstanding event during the wedding feast that exposed Tyrion and made him a suspect.

To me, the pink letter is a similair event: it provokes a reaction, in that case Jon Snow moving down to join the Winterfell battle. People discuss if Stannis or Melisandre or Mance Ryder or Ramsey/Roose Bolton would want this reaction. But someone who also might have wanted this turn of the events, was Jon Snow himself - in his case to find an "excuse" to brake his vow that the NW does not mingle with conflicts in the Seven Kingdoms. He limited this to himself by pointing out, that only Wildlings should join him.

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On 9/4/2016 at 6:38 PM, BricksAndSparrows said:

Well it's not a "moot" point. These forums are all about speculation. But I agree with you anyway. The letter never struck me as anything other than Ramsay's.

I like the idea of Stannis faking his death, but I don't remember him mentioning that. Is it from the Winds chapter?

I felt the same way. However, and I know invoking him is a controversial thing, I feel that Preston Jacobs gives very compelling proof that Mance wrote the letter

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4 hours ago, YOVMO said:

I felt the same way. However, and I know invoking him is a controversial thing, I feel that Preston Jacobs gives very compelling proof that Mance wrote the letter

One of his least crackpotty theories IMO. The idea that the wildlings are plotting something is definitely a great find. I don't know if the Pink Letter is required for this, but Mance is my top candidate for having written it, shortly followed by Stannis.

 

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46 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

One of his least crackpotty theories IMO. The idea that the wildlings are plotting something is definitely a great find. I don't know if the Pink Letter is required for this, but Mance is my top candidate for having written it, shortly followed by Stannis.

 

I think the wording that Preston points out like use of "free people" rather than wildlings and other complaints which are really concerns only to people north of the wall is very clear evidence 

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For some time I didn't believe that Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter and I thought that Stannis or Mance were the author. However, Elio and Linda made a really good video in which they explain why Ramsay is the most likely the author of the letter and they have convinced me. I can recoomend this video to all of you, they make some really good arguments. 

6 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Has anyone thought about the possibility that Jon Snow himself wrote the pink letter?

It sort of reminds me of Joffrey's murder. People like Tyrion could have come to the correct investigation track by thinking less abouts means and motives, but of the reaction caused by an incident, in that case the dwarf mummers show. That was the outstanding event during the wedding feast that exposed Tyrion and made him a suspect.

To me, the pink letter is a similair event: it provokes a reaction, in that case Jon Snow moving down to join the Winterfell battle. People discuss if Stannis or Melisandre or Mance Ryder or Ramsey/Roose Bolton would want this reaction. But someone who also might have wanted this turn of the events, was Jon Snow himself - in his case to find an "excuse" to brake his vow that the NW does not mingle with conflicts in the Seven Kingdoms. He limited this to himself by pointing out, that only Wildlings should join him.

Well we get the scene from his own POV and he seems clearly shocked and surprised by it. While GRRM uses unrealiable narrators ocassionally this would be a scene where a character basically lies to himself, so I find it extremely unlikely. 

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On 30/08/2016 at 1:26 PM, BeastMaster64 said:

It is the most educated and logical Death that stannis wrote it. This guy is the best asoiaf youtuber ever Watch his video.

It doesn't look like you have contributed anything at all to this thread, not one comment, apart from creating it and sharing a YouTube clip which you have taken your opinion from. (Which is actually someone else's opinion).

Is that the way of it? 

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2 hours ago, YOVMO said:

I think the wording that Preston points out like use of "free people" rather than wildlings and other complaints which are really concerns only to people north of the wall is very clear evidence 

Whoever wrote the letter must have spoken to Theon. We know Mance did, but we don't know what Theon said to him, therefore making it unclear if Mance could spice his letter with the Theonisms in it. Plus, we don't have the clear motif for writing the letter (He is informing Tormund of... something?) .

TWOW spoilers:

Spoiler

We know what Theon said to Stannis though, and we also know Stannis is planning on playing dead, indicating Stannis could've written the letter to spread this belief.

Still, Mance makes the most sense to me, among other things because of what you stated, so he is my top choice. I'm just not yet fully convinced it's him.

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In my opionion the Pink Letter is (quite obviously) not written by Ramsay. Why else would GRRM include another letter from Ramsay in the same book which didn't have any function at all other than showing us how Ramsay would write a letter? And since these two letters are so different from each other, I highly suspect that the PL is not written by Ramsay. It's hard to say who exactly wrote the letter yet (mabye Stannis, maybe The Mance, maybe Theon) but I'm pretty sure it will be explained in TWOW. I recommend this video series to anyone who still believes Ramsay wrote the PL: 

 

And I think anyone interested in Stannis and the plot in the north should have read that: https://cantuse.wordpress.com/2014/09/30/the-mannifesto/

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