Originally a thread about people's movements after the Harrenhal Tourney, which turned into a wee project on a Roberts Rebellion timeline!

[Macgregor of the North]

7 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

My series of events would be.

Tourny

Rickard and Benjen head back to WF.  Ned and Robert to the Vale, Lyanna stays at Harrenhall to learn to be more like a southern lady.  I believe this is the most likely scenario for Lyanna for several reasons.  Ned says Lyanna would have worn a sword if father let her, I believe this indicates that Rickard probably wanted her to be more lady like the way Ned does with Arya at first.  If Rickard knew she was tkotlt this would only have increased.  It also provides the explanation of why she was taken near Harrenhall, which is not on the way from the Vale to RR, and how her and Rhaegar communicated, through Whent, Rhaegars man on the Kingsguard.

The concept that Brandon was at RR and went to meet his father on his way down seems strange to me but not impossible.  In any event we know Brandon hears of Lyanna being taken while with a small party of men and immediately rides for Kings Landing without consulting Hoster or Rickard.  I dismiss entirely any notion that LF tricked Brandon.

This way there is no Stark in WF during the Tourney. There must always be a Stark in WF. And I'm not sure if it's ever implied that Rickard was even there. Meera doesn't mention Rickard as the Old Wolf or anything. Just the Stark siblings.

Also it says she was taken not ten leagues from Harrenhal. Which could be around the areas between the Vale and Riverrun, including around the inn at the crossroads.

The concept that Brandon went to meet Rickard heading south is from the app. Made from GRRMS own notes and put together by Ran I believe. Pretty much Canon unless GRRM says it's not.

[Macgregor of the North]

Folks! My time on the Forum has come to an end for now. Real life calls, damn real life!! 

I'll check back later, cheers for all comments so far. Even you with your wacky ass notions @LynnS lol.

[Ygrain]

16 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Because I think Varys moved her out of KL to a safer location.  Especially if she was pregnant given his interest in the children, the realm and Targ bloodlines. 

I don't believe for a single second that Varys has interest

15 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Indeed! Curious, no?

Yes! I have been long pondering what it might have been that he was about to say. "Lyanna was holding onto flowers even on her deathbed"? That wouldn't fit with Robert's preconception about the rape and Ned definitely wouldn't go there.

- Which brings the question: if Rhaegar had nothing to do with Lyanna's disappearance, why does Ned let Robert believe such a cruel thing? Why does he besmirch a dead man's honour like that?

10 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Folks! My time on the Forum has come to an end for now. Real life calls, damn real life!! 

I'll check back later, cheers for all comments so far. Even you with your wacky ass notions @LynnS lol.

Lol, just as I was about to suggest moving into the chat as you were typing faster than I could respond

[Lord Martin]

59 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Yup one of my versions has Lyanna go with Brandon to Riverrun. But, it begs the question, why not send her to spend some time with her betrothed Robert? I know we never hear of Lyanna being there etc etc but this is the whole point, we never hear of her being anywhere as its vague at GRRMS discretion. 

So if she is at Riverrun and leaves with Brandon. You think she escapes Brandon, just flees from him? It's possible. In regards to Brandon when do you suppose he has the conversations with Ned 'with some heat' about LF, which certainly seem to be about the duel and the audacity of LF to challenge him. Ned was in the Vale. 

Also who do you think relayed the info to Brandon about the 'abduction'. Had to be somebody who witnessed something and either told him the truth, or a twisted version of it. 

That's a good question on Lyanna and Robert.  From their characters I would deduce the following options:

1. Robert wanted to go wenching.  He had to be on his behavior at the Tourney since Lyanna was there.  But wanted to go sew some wild oats without her seeing.  And the Vale was one place we know he had some women lined up (Mya Stone's mother for one)

2. Lyanna was free willed and did as she pleased and her focus was on her future meeting with Rhaegar, not getting to know Robert better.

As for her fleeing Brandon... I think she probably fled while they were en route to meet their father.  Its hard to sneak out of a castle like Riverrun (unless you were raised there like the Blackfish).  A camp with Brandon, Lyanna and a few friends... easy enough to steal a horse and ride away.

Brandon would have woken up in the morning, realized she was gone and probably tried to follow her horse trial.  Along the way they would have found a farmer, villager or someone who saw a northern Lady riding with the crown prince and his King's Guard.  I think Brandon made the leap to abduction on his own and is probably the source of the rumor itself.

As for the duel, the App and timeline has way too many inconsistencies that drive me nuts.  The App entry for Catelyn says Catelyn was 12 when she was betrothed to Brandon. But the App also says in Petyrs entry that he challenged Brandon when the "wedding was announced."  I'm not sure if a betrothal and wedding announcement are different things.  But given the Lysa events, the dual had to be right before the Rebellion broke out.

Ned says Brandon spoke of him "often and with some heat" which really makes no sense.  Brandon died not long after the duel.  So we know the "often" bit is false.  I actually think the comment isn't intended to be taken as true.  Instead, its part of a "verbal dual" between Ned and LF when they first meet.  And Ned looses badly:

Quote

Littlefinger ignored the jibe. He eyed Ned with a smile on his lips that bordered on insolence. "I have hoped to meet you for some years, Lord Stark. No doubt Lady Catelyn has mentioned me to you."

"She has," Ned replied with a chill in his voice. The sly arrogance of the comment rankled him. "I understand you knew my brother Brandon as well."

Renly Baratheon laughed. Varys shuffled over to listen.

"Rather too well," Littlefinger said. "I still carry a token of his esteem. Did Brandon speak of me too?"

"Often, and with some heat," Ned said, hoping that would end it. He had no patience with this game they played, this dueling with words.

"I should have thought that heat ill suits you Starks," Littlefinger said. "Here in the south, they say you are all made of ice, and melt when you ride below the Neck."

"I do not plan on melting soon, Lord Baelish. You may count on it." Ned moved to the council table and said, "Maester Pycelle, I trust you are well."

 

I think LF is deliberately poking Ned here to get a rise out of him.  First he mentions his relationship with Ned's wife which offends Ned.  So Ned tries to throw the duel with Brandon back at LF.  But LF gets the better of him by saying "Oh did he speak of me?"  He knows very well when and how Brandon died.  This suggest the story of the duel was told to Ned by Catelyn, not Brandon.  And given the way Lord Rickard was killed by Aerys, the  "Stark's melt" joke is really cutting.  

Quote

"A fool I may be, Stark . . . yet I'm still here, while your brother has been moldering in his frozen grave for some fourteen years now. If you are so eager to molder beside him, far be it from me to dissuade you, but I would rather not be included in the party, thank you very much."

 

[LynnS]

26 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Folks! My time on the Forum has come to an end for now. Real life calls, damn real life!! 

I'll check back later, cheers for all comments so far. Even you with your wacky ass notions @LynnS lol.

Yes, does anyone here actually eat lunch?

Even you with your wacky ass notions

And I return the compliment.

 

[Ygrain]

Around here, we call it supper. Managed one in between the posts, actually. But I really ought to do some work now, I guess.

[LynnS]

25 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

- Which brings the question: if Rhaegar had nothing to do with Lyanna's disappearance, why does Ned let Robert believe such a cruel thing? Why does he besmirch a dead man's honour like that?

That's a good question.  Because he can't convince Robert otherwise? Because it's what Robert wants to believe?  Because it brings back too many painful memories; better to let the dead Lie?  Because it would lead to too many questions.  Questions Ned doesn't want to answer.  It seems they parted company a long time ago.  Did Ned even see Robert after the ToJ?

 

 

[Ygrain]

8 minutes ago, LynnS said:

That's a good question.  Because he can't convince Robert otherwise? Because it's what Robert wants to believe?  Because it brings back too many painful memories; better to let the dead Lie?  Because it would lead to too many questions.  Questions Ned doesn't want to answer.  It seems they parted company a long time ago.  Did Ned even see Robert after the ToJ?

He says that the shared grief over Lyanna's death reconciled them, and they met later on again during Balon's rebellion. At some point, he must have told Robert some version of Lyanna's death because he reminds him that he was there with her, and he must have fed Robert the story about Wylla "Jon's mother" because Robert speaks about this, as well.

[LynnS]

3 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

He says that the shared grief over Lyanna's death reconciled them, and they met later on again during Balon's rebellion. At some point, he must have told Robert some version of Lyanna's death because he reminds him that he was there with her, and he must have fed Robert the story about Wylla "Jon's mother" because Robert speaks about this, as well.

Yah, I don't think he told him everything and had reasons not to.

[deja vu]

I don't remember any indication that a date had been set for Lyanna's and Robert's wedding. That said, Robert was, at the time, Lord of the Storm Lands, so the wedding would have been planned to be held at Storm's End. It seems to be standard practice that the bride-to-be is sent to a female relative or friend before the wedding for preparation and "safe keeping." Robert's mother died in the same shipwreck as her husband, but no matter. According to the Wiki,  Lyanna's maternal aunt Branda - sister of Rickard's wife Lyarra - married Harrold Rogers of House Rogers, located in Amberly, somewhere in the Storm Lands. It makes no sense that Lyanna would be sent anywhere but to her aunt or, if Branda had passed, her Rogers cousins. The custom of the time would make it seem unusual for her to have gone to the Vale with her brother or to the Riverlands, where she had no near relations, with another brother.

[Ygrain]

9 minutes ago, deja vu said:

I don't remember any indication that a date had been set for Lyanna's and Robert's wedding. That said, Robert was, at the time, Lord of the Storm Lands, so the wedding would have been planned to be held at Storm's End. It seems to be standard practice that the bride-to-be is sent to a female relative or friend before the wedding for preparation and "safe keeping." Robert's mother died in the same shipwreck as her husband, but no matter. According to the Wiki,  Lyanna's maternal aunt Branda - sister of Rickard's wife Lyarra - married Harrold Rogers of House Rogers, located in Amberly, somewhere in the Storm Lands. It makes no sense that Lyanna would be sent anywhere but to her aunt or, if Branda had passed, her Rogers cousins. The custom of the time would make it seem unusual for her to have gone to the Vale with her brother or to the Riverlands, where she had no near relations, with another brother.

But the series proper gives no account of this aunt, nor the cousins, so it is not a viable alternative. If Lyanna was indeed sent somewhere, and given the lack of noblewomen at Winterfell, she sorely needed some care, it must have been a place we have heard of. Lord Arryn was widowed, so Eyrie wouldn't do. IMHO, Riverrun would have been a sensible option, but perhaps Rickard felt that Catelyn was too young to supervise Lyanna. Which leaves the Whents, related to the Tullys through Cat's mother, as a plausible option. IMHO. There would be Lady Whent to groom Lyanna for her role of the Lady of Stormlands, and a young daughter to keep her company, and the Whents are wealthy and in a good standing at the court through Oswell, which would appeal to Rickard's ambitions. And if this arrangement had been agreed on prior the tourney scandal, it wouldn't do to offend Lord Whent by cancelling it, right?

[deja vu]

If she were sent to Lady Whent, that would put her at Harrenhal, so there'd be no need to travel far to "bump into" Rhaegar. I like that. But there might be some reason we don't know about why the detail of who Lyarra's sister married was added to the wiki. There's so many holes in the geneology charts - why add this detail about a House and aunt/sister about which nothing has ever been mentioned?

[Ygrain]

12 minutes ago, deja vu said:

If she were sent to Lady Whent, that would put her at Harrenhal, so there'd be no need to travel far to "bump into" Rhaegar. I like that.

Exactly :-)

12 minutes ago, deja vu said:

But there might be some reason we don't know about why the detail of who Lyarra's sister married was added to the wiki. There's so many holes in the geneology charts - why add this detail about a House and aunt/sister about which nothing has ever been mentioned?

There should also be some reason why we are never told about Lyarra herself in the first place.

[deja vu]

Lyanna could have begun her stay at Harrenhal by traveling to the tourney with her brothers. They were participating in the tourney, and staying in tents set up for participants. Obviously, the daughter of Winterfell and betrothed of the Storm Lands would not stay in the tents. This could be the start of a stay at Harrenhal that was to have lasted until she had to travel to the Storm Lands. Since Robert went back to the Vale, the wedding had to be pretty far in the future. Her status as a ward of House Whent - who had no daughters - puts another light on the attention paid to her at the tourney by Rhaegar - by recognizing her with the garland of blue roses (which had to be pre-planned), he was paying homage to the host of the tourney.

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, deja vu said:

Lyanna could have begun her stay at Harrenhal by traveling to the tourney with her brothers.

 

That's what I'd expect, as well.

1 hour ago, deja vu said:

 

They were participating in the tourney, and staying in tents set up for participants. Obviously, the daughter of Winterfell and betrothed of the Storm Lands would not stay in the tents.

This could be the start of a stay at Harrenhal that was to have lasted until she had to travel to the Storm Lands.

 

It would be possible that she stayed in the castle right away, but the tent would allow her more possibilities to just slip out the way she apparently did. I do agree that she was to stay at HH till her wedding.

1 hour ago, deja vu said:

Since Robert went back to the Vale, the wedding had to be pretty far in the future.

 

Depends on how you define "far". I would say that it was definitely to take place after Brandon's wedding, so at least as far as that. How much further, though? Could it be that after the attention she had received at HH, Robert was pressing for an earlier date?

1 hour ago, deja vu said:

Her status as a ward of House Whent - who had no daughters - puts another light on the attention paid to her at the tourney by Rhaegar - by recognizing her with the garland of blue roses (which had to be pre-planned), he was paying homage to the host of the tourney.

The Whents did have a daughter - she was the original QoLaB and her brother as well as her uncle defended her title.

Wow, that may have soured Lyanna's stay a wee bit if the girl was jealous...

[deja vu]

I forgot that the Whent daughter was the defending QoLaB - I was thinking about the Whent line dieing out. But you're right - if she was jealous - or if her parents were offended & took it as a slight, Lyanna's stay would be quite uncomfortable.

If it was known that Lyanna stayed in the tents, that would have set tongues to wagging. But I don't think Brandon would have allowed it - it might interfere with his partying in addition to risking the reputation of his sister. IIRC, Ned shared a tent with Howland Reed.

The timeline between the tourney and Lyanna's kidnapping/running off is not clear to me. The OP has the tourney in October of 281, Robert still in the Vale in the first quarter of 282, and whatever happened when Lyanna disappeared also in the first quarter of 282. So 3 to 6 months.

 

[Ygrain]

10 hours ago, deja vu said:

If it was known that Lyanna stayed in the tents, that would have set tongues to wagging. But I don't think Brandon would have allowed it - it might interfere with his partying in addition to risking the reputation of his sister. IIRC, Ned shared a tent with Howland Reed.

Sincerely, I have no idea what the customs of the time were and I don't recall GRRM ever adressing the ladies' accomodation during tourneys in any way. It is a reasonable assumption that at least ladies of high standing would be offered rooms in the castle.

10 hours ago, deja vu said:

The timeline between the tourney and Lyanna's kidnapping/running off is not clear to me. The OP has the tourney in October of 281, Robert still in the Vale in the first quarter of 282, and whatever happened when Lyanna disappeared also in the first quarter of 282. So 3 to 6 months.

I'm afraid I suck at pinning timelines. In the times when all we had was "about a year between the tourney and Lyanna's disappearance", life was easier :-). I would only say that the World Book stating that Rhaegar's journey eventually brought him back to the Riverlands is pretty vague and with GRRM's travel times, almost anything goes.

[Macgregor of the North]

@Ygrain @deja vu @Lord Martin

I had unplugged from the forum for the weekend but back on now. 

In regards to the dates.

Since the World book came out, the dates for the Tourney and the disappearance are slightly easier to pinpoint I think.

"The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance." 

To me, placing the Tourney round about October makes some sense. 

Also, after the World book, we know when Rhaegar left to eventually head to the Riverlands. 

"Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands."

I'm not exactly sure when Rhaegar and Lyanna crossed paths and made off together etc but if Rhaegar had left at the start of the year then placing it in the 1st quarter 282AC makes the most sense I think. 

So at the beginning of the year we have Aerys at KL. 

Rhaegar on the road, with the Riverlands being his destination.

Ned and Robert back in the Vale. 

Ben has headed/is heading home, allowing the Stark in WF Rickard to travel south to Riverrun for his heirs wedding. 

Brandon Has went to Riverrun to spend time with Catelyn and duelled Petyr. He leaves with plans to meet with his father heading south and return to Riverrun to then wed Cat.

After two weeks healing after the duel Petyr is heading east to the Vale travelling by litter. I think this is entirely far to convenient and suspicious to have Petyr in the vicinity, possibly hinting at some sneaky involvement with the passing of information to a hot headed Brandon, influencing his hasty ride south. 

Brandon has two Vale companions with him. I personally think this points to him having possibly spent time in the Vale before he is to meet his father. The conversations Ned and Brandon have 'with some heat' about Petyr, may actually happen over the course of Brandon's time in the Vale before he meets his father heading south. So I think it a strong possibility Brandon travelled to see Ned and Robert at the Vale, mentions Petyr a good few times, enough to class it as often. And then when he leaves to finally go meet his father, the two Vale men Elbert Arryn and Kyle Royce accompany him. 

Ethan Glover- as Brandon's squire is with him at the time anyway. 

Jeffory Mallister- had left Riverrun with Brandon? Was part of Petyrs litter escort to the Vale and meets Brandon on the road around the time Brandon gets the news on Lyanna? Who knows.

In all this, where is Lyanna. 

Did she stay with the Whents at Harrenhal?
I can see why it's thought she may have, but she has no strong connection to the Whents, the connection is a Tully one really. And I strongly think that her brothers and also Robert wouldn't want her to far out of their sight after the Tourney, especially with a House that has a strong connection to the Royal family and therefore Rhaegar, who had just recently publicly declared an undeniable interest in, and desire, for Lyanna at the Tourney. It's possible but it just doesn't sit well with me that she stayed with the Whents, or that Brandon or Robert allowed it. 

Or

She went to the Vale to spend time with her betrothed, like Brandon also does with Cat at Riverrun. Wouldn't Rickard have told both siblings to do this? Hadn't he organised these matches? Certainly makes some sense. Also, like mentioned before it keeps her closer to them after what happened at the Tourney. It is claimed that Robert laughed off Rhaegars actions at the time but it actually visibly annoyed him afterward. I can't see why Robert would let her stay with the Whents if this was the case. 

If she did stay at the Vale though, she has given them the slip and escaped on horseback at some stage. 

Or

She heads to Riverrun with oldest brother Brandon at his command. Same scenario as before but in this instance it's the brother who wants to keep her closer to him than her husband to be. In this scenario though, where does Lyanna go when Brandon leaves to meet his father heading south? Does she accompany him and give him the slip somehow? What if they both travel to the Vale from Riverrun, spend sometime with Ned and Robert like I mentioned earlier, and when Brandon leaves to go meet Rickard heading south Lyanna leaves with him but gives him the slip then? 

How does that happen though? I could try a guess. Let's say Lyanna races off from Brandon. He heads off in pursuit, reaches the inn at the crossroads, or somewhere. Hears word that Lyanna made off with Rhaegar Targaryen. Could be by way of a twisted rumour(Petyr) or could be that he just heard she left with Rhaegar and he is just as angry at her as he is with Rhaegar when he races south?.

It seems to me personally that it's either- off to the Vale, to Riverrun, or stay with the Whents in regards to Lyanna after the Tourney. Although of course there may be some other scenario and my thoughts are way off. 

It will sure be interesting to have this cleared up finally one day. 

[Macgregor of the North]

On ‎02‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 5:31 PM, Lord Martin said:

1. Robert wanted to go wenching.  He had to be on his behavior at the Tourney since Lyanna was there.  But wanted to go sew some wild oats without her seeing.  And the Vale was one place we know he had some women lined up (Mya Stone's mother for one)

I do see what you are saying here as Robert did like wenching etc, but so close to the possibility of marrying Lyanna, i dont think he would have been in this frame of mind. Given how much he loved her, if the possibility was there, to either have her around, or go wenching, i think he would rather have her close by him. Especially since Rhaegar had publicly declared an interest in her at the Tourney.

 

On ‎02‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 5:31 PM, Lord Martin said:

2. Lyanna was free willed and did as she pleased and her focus was on her future meeting with Rhaegar, not getting to know Robert better.

She certainly was a willful girl, and i believe her focus was on meeting Rhaegar, which is why she would have likely been scheming for an opening to flee on her horse. It doesnt mean she never went to the Vale though, it could simply be that she did but waited for a chance to flee.

 

On ‎02‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 5:31 PM, Lord Martin said:

As for the duel, the App and timeline has way too many inconsistencies that drive me nuts.  The App entry for Catelyn says Catelyn was 12 when she was betrothed to Brandon. But the App also says in Petyrs entry that he challenged Brandon when the "wedding was announced."  I'm not sure if a betrothal and wedding announcement are different things.  But given the Lysa events, the dual had to be right before the Rebellion broke out.

The App states it was when the wedding 'date' was announced, so its likely that after the Tourney Brandon went to Riverrun to be there on the announcement of the actual date for the wedding(even though the betrothal itself had been agreed years prior). So upon the date announcement, Petyr fancies his chances and challenges Brandon. 

 

On ‎02‎/‎09‎/‎2016 at 5:31 PM, Lord Martin said:

Ned says Brandon spoke of him "often and with some heat" which really makes no sense.  Brandon died not long after the duel.  So we know the "often" bit is false.  I actually think the comment isn't intended to be taken as true.  Instead, its part of a "verbal dual" between Ned and LF when they first meet.  And Ned looses badly:

It does make sense if you think about it. If Brandon went to the Vale for a time before meeting his father Rickard heading south, then it only even needs to be for a short time, lets say a week or whatever. If Brandon mentions how that silly little shit Petyr challenged him and how angry it has made him like every day for the whole stay then it becomes 'often'. I'm not sure Ned would fabricate a conversation to take part in a verbal duel, its not really his style. It points to Brandon likely actually having said this to Ned. 

[Macgregor of the North]

On 2 September 2016 at 6:52 PM, deja vu said:

I don't remember any indication that a date had been set for Lyanna's and Robert's wedding. That said, Robert was, at the time, Lord of the Storm Lands, so the wedding would have been planned to be held at Storm's End. It seems to be standard practice that the bride-to-be is sent to a female relative or friend before the wedding for preparation and "safe keeping." Robert's mother died in the same shipwreck as her husband, but no matter. According to the Wiki,  Lyanna's maternal aunt Branda - sister of Rickard's wife Lyarra - married Harrold Rogers of House Rogers, located in Amberly, somewhere in the Storm Lands. It makes no sense that Lyanna would be sent anywhere but to her aunt or, if Branda had passed, her Rogers cousins. The custom of the time would make it seem unusual for her to have gone to the Vale with her brother or to the Riverlands, where she had no near relations, with another brother.

I was just speculating on a date being set. It's makes sense to think though that it would have been soon, especially since a date had been set for Brandon's wedding, so a date for Lyannas would have been in the pipeline to. 

In regards to Lyanna going to spend time with family before her wedding, then the Stark's have quite a bit of family in the Vale. Rickards aunt Jocelyn Stark married Bendict Royce. They had three daughters who all married Vale Lordlings. So that's another reason for Lyanna to stop by the Vale.

All these three daughters of Benedict Royce and Jocelyn Stark's Union could help her with preparations to becoming a southern Lady. I done pieces on the Vale Stark relatives in the past and figured the three daughters to be born around the 240'sAC, making them in their 30's possibly after the Tourney. I'm quite sure these three ladies would love to meet with a young Lyanna Stark, although I do admit, there's nothing to back up my assumption that Lyanna spent time with them, but, it makes sense that she would have if you think of it.

To clarify, these three daughters of Jocelyn Stark would be 1st cousins of Lord Rickard, and 2nd cousins of Lyanna Stark. 

I'll add, Lyanna could have spent sometime with Jocelyn herself if she's still alive. Jocelyn would be older for certain, but not necessarily dead.