UK Politics: The Overton Defenestration

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

12 hours ago, theguyfromtheVale said:

I find his choice of words more concerning. "If we're forced to change our economic model, [...]"? You weren't forced. You made your bed, now you have to lie in it. Nobody forced Breit from outside.

What I took from his comments was that he would like to keep the current style of economy we have at the moment, which I think is european in so much as slightly socialist ( in comparison to the US I guess), but if we leave then the best way to do it is to become some sort of offshore tax haven, low taxes and small government. Probably another excuse for the tories to push through their vision anyway.

[The guy from the Vale]

I don't know how being a tax haven is supposed to work for a population of 65 million.There's a reason why tax havens usually have low populations (500k for Luxembourg, 37k for Liechtenstein, 1 million for Cyprus, 400k for Malta; most Carribean tax havens are of similar size or even smaller, and Switzerland is pushing the boundaries with its 8 million inhabitants, but its economy is more diversified): When you're taxing a few super-rich very little, you can only keep this up if your population remains small enough to be sustained from the resulting windfall. I can't imagine the UK attracting enough sponsors to keep its health and retirement payments going, to be honest.

[Hereward]

He's not talking about a tax haven in that way. He is talking about an aggressive corporate tax policy to lure businesses to the UK.

[The guy from the Vale]

Well, I fear that's not going to cut it either, considering those businesses will lose their gains because they'll have to pay an export tax when trading with Europe, reducing the profit margin again. 

Also, that means more of the tax burden has to be carried by the British middle class, in return.

[Hereward]

I didn't say I thought it was a good idea!

 

[Werthead]

Michael Gove: "Now we're at the front of the queue?"

Trump: (slight pause) "I think you're going to do great!"

 

Hmm. Not sure I find that entirely encouraging.

[Maltaran]

So, hard Brexit it is then.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Yep, as I was expecting, but very much hoping for a soft brexit.

 

Guess I got between 2 and 5 years of having a job then.   if I'm lucky maybe 10.

[ljkeane]

I think the cost of the holiday I booked the other day has just gone up by quite a lot. Brilliant.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Hum. Sounded more like May is still having a bit of a pipe dream. To some extent at least.

May: Access to single market not a priority. We nevertheless want a free trade and tariff agreement. We no longer want to accept the rulings of the European Courts. We want to greatly reduce our payments to the EU. However there are still some EU programs in which we'd like to participate. Of course free movement of labour will be cut down. 

I can see what the EU has to offer. But somehow I feel to see anything May wants to put on the table. So why would the EU agree to that? Hard Brexit, means hard Brexit.

Not to mention that Ireland will be pretty interesting. Control over the British border and improving the relationships with Ireland.

[ljkeane]

13 minutes ago, Notone said:

But somehow I feel to see anything May wants to put on the table. So why would the EU agree to that? Hard Brexit, means hard Brexit.
 

About £300bn in EU exports to the UK I'd imagine.

There's a certain amount of incentive for the EU to make it unattractive to leave the EU but the UK's still the second largest economy in Europe. If the UK's not going to remain in the single market there's ultimately a limit to how much the rest of the EU are going to shoot themselves in the foot over post brexit trade agreements.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

15 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

About £300bn in EU exports to the UK I'd imagine.

Not really. Most of that are industrial parts and stuff like that, which is no longer produced in the UK, but somewhat vital for production.

I try to make a simplified example. Let's take a look at a car manufactured in Britain. Not every single part in the car is necessarily  produced there, too - let's say some stupid part like the motors for the windscreen wipers, you kinda need them. And the machines (and spare parts for it) needed in the production are also not necessarily made in Britain. So the 300bn exports to the UK deserve a closer look. I mean there aren't enough Mercedes and Porsches in the City of London to account for 300bn in exports.

On the other hand, you also have those two AIrbus factories in the UK that produces parts. So if Britain goes all out for a tradewar with the EU. They can close down operations in Germany and France, or close their two sites in the UK. That's 6.000 jobs directly hired by Airbus. In itself not a big number, but add to that at least ten times that number to suppliers who depend on Airbus producing there. And you can see how this can get rather unpleasent rather quick. And if the EU wants to play hardball, the banking passport is quite big stick it can swing. 

[ljkeane]

24 minutes ago, Notone said:

Not really. Most of that are industrial parts and stuff like that, which is no longer produced in the UK.

They are made in places like China or the US though I'd think.

Look I'm not going to get into an extended argument but if you think the UK and the EU entering into some sort of customs union and free trade agreement (the specific details of which will have to be determined by negotiations of course) now May has made clear she doesn't want to remain in the single market is a 'pipe dream' I don't know what to tell you. I think the chances of that happening are almost 100%. What is the EU going to do? Just cut off trade with the UK and almost certainly massively damage their own economies along with that of the UK?

As for retaining membership of certain EU institutions, I suppose that might be rejected on principle but there are clear benefits for the EU in the UK being part of it's institutions. It'll probably depend which institutions the UK wants to remain a member of I'd think.

Overall now it's been made clear the UK won't seek to remain in the single market or retain any sort of associate membership of the EU this seems like a fairly bland statement of outcomes which are very likely to come about from May to me. I'm not seeing what's a 'pipe dream'.

[Chaircat Meow]

8 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

They are made in places like China or the US though I'd imagine.

Look I'm not going to get into an extended argument but if you think the UK and the EU entering into some sort of customs union and free trade agreement (the specific details of which will have to be determined by negotiations of course) now May has made clear she doesn't want to remain in the single market is a 'pipe dream' I don't know what to tell you. I think the chances of that happening are almost 100%. What is the EU going to do? Just cut off trade with the UK and almost certainly massively damage their own economies along with that of the UK?

As for retaining membership of certain EU institutions, I suppose that might be rejected on principle but there are clear benefits for the EU in the UK being part of it's institutions. It'll probably depend which institutions the UK wants to remain a member of I'd think.

Overall now it's been made clear the UK won't seek to remain in the single market or retain any sort of associate membership of the EU this seems like a fairly bland statement of outcomes which are very likely to come about from May to me. I'm not seeing what's a 'pipe dream'.

Well not if they are imported from the EU ... I don't know where Notone has his figures from but I am not seeing why the fact that some of the trade between the UK and EU is not in finished products but parts makes a difference to what you said.

[The Anti-Targ]

Quote

Boris

Other countries are "queuing up" to sign trade deals with the UK once it leaves the EU, Boris Johnson has said.

Well yes, we're in that queue. We were in the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with a 500 million population market. But now we have to negotiate a deal with a 420 million population market and then negotiate another deal with a 60 million population market. We'd rather have just had to do the one.

Quote

May

She also warned the EU not to try to "punish" the UK, saying she would walk away unless the right deal was offered.

What does that mean? She won't Brexit unless the deal is good enough? I thought Brexit meant Brexit. What happens if you walk away after you start the exit process and the 2 years runs out?

[Pebble thats Stubby]

3 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Well yes, we're in that queue. We were in the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with a 500 million population market. But now we have to negotiate a deal with a 420 million population market and then negotiate another deal with a 60 million population market. We'd rather have just had to do the one.

What does that mean? She won't Brexit unless the deal is good enough? I thought Brexit meant Brexit. What happens if you walk away after you start the exit process and the 2 years runs out?

She means that She would rather not have any trade deal at all with europe, if she does not like the terms of the Brexit and any future trade deal.

[Werthead]

Quote

What does that mean? She won't Brexit unless the deal is good enough? I thought Brexit meant Brexit. What happens if you walk away after you start the exit process and the 2 years runs out?

No trade deal and we trade under World Trade Organisation rules.

[Angalin]

It took Canada seven years to get its trade deal with the EU, and it applies only to trade. Canadian exporters still have to meet specific EU standards, too. While CETA might be a model for a future UK-EU deal, it wouldn't allow the big banks to hustle in and out of the EU the way they can now from London. In her speech, May discussed sector-specific deals to placate certain industries: how likely is that really to happen? 

Relying on the Trump administration for a UK-USA deal is laughable: it'd be some weird and wacky setup where all sides lost out but both May and Trump swore it was bigly for everyone.

[Hereward]

It should be easier to reach a deal for the UK if the political will is there. UK businesses and legislation already meet EU requirements by definition, after all.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

They do right now. But for how long? If you follow Brexiteer logic, the UK cuts ties to the EU, so that EU laws and regulations no longer apply, then how will you guarantee that British businesses and legislation will be meeting (possibly changing) EU requirements then?