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UK Politics: The Overton Defenestration


Hereward

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How do you guarantee that with any country that the EU signs a free trade deal with? That would have to be part of the deal, but the point was that the lengthy negotiations and lead in times are because regulations and legislation have to be harmonised to start with. We don't have that issue. That said, I don't think the political will is there on either side, so it's a moot point.

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Yes, I know, but that is not a free trade deal, it's membership of the single market, which the UK has ruled out. The EU-Canada deal eliminates most tariffs and many non-tariff barriers, while allowing both parties to trade with other countries and blocs independently, and allowing for changes to regulations as long as an agreed floor is respected. The thing that took the time was negotiating that floor and harmonising. The UK could do that easily.

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1 hour ago, Hereward said:

That said, I don't think the political will is there on either side

Our Foreign Secretary has that covered, just in case there should be any residual goodwill.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38658998

Quote

With just over two months to go before the UK government is due to get Brexit talks under way, Mr Johnson was asked on a trip to India about comments by an aide to French President Francois Hollande, who said the UK should not expect a better trading relationship with the EU after leaving it.
He replied: "If Monsieur Hollande wants to administer punishment beatings to anybody who chooses to escape, rather in the manner of some World War Two movie, then I don't think that is the way forward."

Downing Street later said Mr Johnson "was not in any way suggesting anyone was a Nazi".

 

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I'm 100% certain at this point that May only made Boris Foreign Secretary because she knew he would make such a mess of it and sabotage his own reputation he would not be even a remotely credible threat to her in the future. So far, this has been a complete success.

The Lib Dems on fine trolling form today.

Not entirely sure about the Labour strategy here. Corbyn seems to be backing Brexit at all costs to stave off a UKIP threat, but I think it might be a little too late in the day for this tactic.

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4 hours ago, Werthead said:

I'm 100% certain at this point that May only made Boris Foreign Secretary because she knew he would make such a mess of it and sabotage his own reputation he would not be even a remotely credible threat to her in the future. So far, this has been a complete success.

The Lib Dems on fine trolling form today.

Not entirely sure about the Labour strategy here. Corbyn seems to be backing Brexit at all costs to stave off a UKIP threat, but I think it might be a little too late in the day for this tactic.

Presumes there is a strategy to be understood. I don't think there is. They don't know what to do.

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11 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Presumes there is a strategy to be understood. I don't think there is. They don't know what to do.

At this point in time, the only party who seem to have a strategy regarding Brexit are the SNP.

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57 minutes ago, Hereward said:

Well. I suppose demanding a rainbow-coloured unicorn so as to have an excuse to call a referendum when they don't get it is a strategy of sorts, though they still look highly unlikely to win it.

I think Sturgeon has dug herself into a hole (or maybe she's been dug into a hole). If opinion doesn't move between now and next year she doesn't want to try to call a referendum but given everything she has said she's going to find it hard to back down. Hard Brexit was supposed to be the starting gun for a new referendum as well, but now we hear no referendum this year. And a referendum any later is going to make it much harder for Scotland to seamlessly remain in the EU. The mood since the referendum has also confirmed my prior view that EU membership is a complete turkey of an issue to fight a second referendum on.

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47 minutes ago, Hereward said:

Well. I suppose demanding a rainbow-coloured unicorn so as to have an excuse to call a referendum when they don't get it is a strategy of sorts, though they still look highly unlikely to win it.

Hey, at least they've actually written something down and put it forward for scrutiny. Those plans may not be realistically achievable, but they exist! Who else can say that?

22 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

I think Sturgeon has dug herself into a hole (or maybe she's been dug into a hole). If opinion doesn't move between now and next year she doesn't want to try to call a referendum but given everything she has said she's going to find it hard to back down. Hard Brexit was supposed to be the starting gun for a new referendum as well, but now we hear no referendum this year. And a referendum any later is going to make it much harder for Scotland to seamlessly remain in the EU. The mood since the referendum have also confirmed my prior view that EU membership is a complete turkey of an issue to fight a second referendum on.

I think that the SNP would prefer to be in some sort of halfway house transitional arrangement re: EU membership for a few years, long enough to say 'well we tried but it didn't work'. But the problem is trying to find one.

The key point, though, is to be able to say 'we left no stone unturned in trying to avoid this second referendum'. Whether it passes or not, that's crucial in limiting the fallout.

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1 minute ago, mormont said:

Hey, at least they've actually written something down and put it forward for scrutiny. Those plans may not be realistically achievable, but they exist! Who else can say that?

I think that the SNP would prefer to be in some sort of halfway house transitional arrangement re: EU membership for a few years, long enough to say 'well we tried but it didn't work'. But the problem is trying to find one.

The key point, though, is to be able to say 'we left no stone unturned in trying to avoid this second referendum'. Whether it passes or not, that's crucial in limiting the fallout.

Not sure I understand. You think the SNP want to leave the EU?

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The LibDems have a policy and a strategy. It's written down and everything. It also looks like a vote-winner. So, if you don't want to leave, or want the softest of Brexits, you can vote LibDems. If you want a hard Brexit, you can vote Tory or UKIP. If you want, erm, somebody help me out here... you can vote Labour.

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27 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Not sure I understand. You think the SNP want to leave the EU?

I think the SNP, in an ideal world, want what they say they want: to enter some sort of transitional arrangement where Scotland remains part of the UK but has a special deal conferring some sort of single market access. This would give them a few years before any second referendum, during which they could try to make that deal work. If it did, fine. If it didn't, they could say 'well, we tried'.

16 minutes ago, Hereward said:

The LibDems have a policy and a strategy. It's written down and everything.

Is it on display in a filing cabinet with a sign on the front saying 'Beware of the Leopard'?

Genuinely, I have no idea what the Lib Dem strategy for Brexit might be, other than 'we'll vote against it'.

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1 minute ago, mormont said:

I think the SNP, in an ideal world, want what they say they want: to enter some sort of transitional arrangement where Scotland remains part of the UK but has a special deal conferring some sort of single market access. This would give them a few years before any second referendum, during which they could try to make that deal work. If it did, fine. If it didn't, they could say 'well, we tried'.

Is it on display in a filing cabinet with a sign on the front saying 'Beware of the Leopard'?

Genuinely, I have no idea what the Lib Dem strategy for Brexit might be, other than 'we'll vote against it'.

http://www.libdems.org.uk/europe

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2 minutes ago, mormont said:

I think the SNP, in an ideal world, want what they say they want: to enter some sort of transitional arrangement where Scotland remains part of the UK but has a special deal conferring some sort of single market access. This would give them a few years before any second referendum, during which they could try to make that deal work. If it did, fine. If it didn't, they could say 'well, we tried'.

Oh, I see. Fair enough.

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The ridiculous situation with the SNP  and Nicola in particular is that they want to be free of the UK and "evil English domination & control" but yet they still want to be able to cozy up to the EU for help and support. So essentially what they are aiming for is freedom from one "oppressor" only to be taken back in by another one.
One can hardly argue that the EU is any better at controlling and enforcing ridiculous policies on its members than the rest of the UK was to Scotland, if anything i'd says it's worse. At least in the UK we all have a fairly consistent national identity and culture so things tend to work together automatically. With the EU you're constantly fighting against countries that have zero interest in your culture or home policies, they just want control and influence over you.

So i'm highly skeptical of anything said about how Scotland being independent from the UK but back in Europe would really change much. We'd be less well off from the split but still held to the daft ideals of the rest of Europe.

And whether she likes it or not, Scotland already voted to stay within the UK, and then the whole place voted out. So she can't really say what is going on is not the will of the people. If she continues that idea i think it's setting a dangerous tone.
I mean here in the NE we voted mostly overwhelmingly to stay in the UK, so by Nicola's logic should any independence referendum outcome go the way of a split could we them argue it's not what we voted for and demand to negotiate to stay in the UK apart from the rest of Scotland? It stands to just pull and tear the whole country apart.

She should just concentrate on running the country and not trying to break everything up all the time. Annoyingly a lot of the SNP domestic policies are quite good, the nationalistic crap just gets in the way a lot of the time.

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H: thanks. A second referendum is an idea I've seen bruited about by Lib Dem supporters and MPs but that link suggests it's actual party policy, which I didn't realise. However nice an idea it is, it's in the rainbow-coloured unicorn territory I'm afraid. Other than that, there are some things the party want to keep and no plan of how to do that, which isn't so much a strategy as it is a list of aspirations.

Ultimately, though, there's only one strategy that counts for anything and that's the UK government's strategy. At present that looks like 'ask for some things but leave whether we get them or not'.

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1 hour ago, Hereward said:

If you want, erm, somebody help me out here... you can vote Labour.

The Judean People's Front?

It looks like lots of Labour MPs are going to vote against Corbyn's party line if Parliament gets to vote on Article 50

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