U.S. Elections 2016 - Polls in mirror appear closer than they are

[mormont]

Moving away from the critical political area of celeb Twitter feeds, here's an important issue that slipped by in the last few days: Trump's plan for what to do with his businesses, if elected.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/09/14/donald_trump_s_promised_blind_trust_is_impossible.html

Now, it's understandable that Donald Trump is a bit hazy on what exactly a 'blind trust' is. After all, it has to do with business ethics, a subject he's shown no previous interest in or knowledge of. But if he and his brood seriously can't see the problem with the notion of his kids and his executives running his businesses while he's in the White House - and are seriously expecting voters to accept that this means Donald would have 'no connection' or 'no control' over the businesses - they're either fools or think everyone else is a fool. Possibly both.

[Lord of Rhinos]

I just looked at that Cher twitter feed.  My god.  I feel like my brain melted.   What the hell was that?

[James Arryn]

Cher vs. Trump for the WH! Make it happen!

[Jaxom 1974]

14 hours ago, Shryke said:

From last thread via Jaxom 1974,

No.

This kinda misunderstands what is meant by ground game and what it's for. Trump has alot of free media coverage but that's not a substitute for ground game. Media coverage has always been around after all. Trump's sole innovation is in getting it for free instead of paying massive amounts of money for it.

Ground game as a term has always been meant in contrast to that media coverage. It's the other thing basically, the thing you need on top of media coverage.  The point being that ads are all well and good but what's understood in American politics to actually get votes out is the knock and drag. Get out there, knock on doors and drag your voters to the fucking polls. Metaphorically on the second part these days of course. It is generally believed that without this kind of operation, alot of people simply won't come out and vote cause they are distracted, lazy, can't get to the polls, etc.

I mean, we'll see if Trump somehow defies this or if conventional wisdom was always wrong here, but I'm not so sure.

 

Re: Terra Prime above on this subject

There's alot that is unconventional about Trump's campaign but I don't see anything terribly unconventional about his voters or their habits on this subject. I just don't think the idea that he's going to break the system and not need to remind people to get to the polls holds up.

Perhaps I'm looking at the ground game concept a little incorrectly, in terms of defining it, but I think I'm going to maintain that, in his mind, Trump believes that the use of and the manipulation of the media to disseminate his message and fear mongering, he doesn't need a "traditional" ground game.   He believes people will flock to the polls purely because he is telling them to.  

"Ground Game by Hubris" perhaps?

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

7 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

I just looked at that Cher twitter feed.  My god.  I feel like my brain melted.   What the hell was that?

I enjoy Caps lock for emphasis, but that bird is out of control.

[Red Hermit]

It's looking like a lot of Clinton's slipping in the polls recently is due to millenials preferring 3rd part candidates.  While I don't think her "basket of deplorables" remark is all that inaccurate I also don't think millenials approve of that kind of combative rhetoric.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-losing-key-millennial-support-nationally-key-states-n650076

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I thought Clinton had a problem appealing to milennials throughout the entire cycle. During the primaries they were more into Sanders than Clinton, and she was seemingly unable to fix that.

My interpretation of what's happening is this, Clinton hoped millenials will automatically fall in line, Trump will continue to autodestruct and bring down the GOP. So she picked Tim Kaine as running mate to run a low profile campaign and collect never Trump votes from the GOP. In hindsight Warren might have been the better pick. Simply ignoring the disgruntled never Trump GOP votes, and to toss a bone to the millenial voters. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

^^^^

To be fair, Trump has autodestructed at a level never before seen. It just doesn't budge his base. How it's not scaring the shit out of anyone considering voting 3rd party is beyond me though. 

[Shryke]

Sulu sets phasers to burn:

twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/775894243143483392

twitter.com/GeorgeTakei/status/776808536579907584

[Shryke]

35 minutes ago, Red Hermit said:

It's looking like a lot of Clinton's slipping in the polls recently is due to millenials preferring 3rd part candidates.  While I don't think her "basket of deplorables" remark is all that inaccurate I also don't think millenials approve of that kind of combative rhetoric.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-losing-key-millennial-support-nationally-key-states-n650076

I don't think accurately calling the GOP base deplorable matters at all to younger voters. This is mostly the whole growing up amid decades of anti-Clinton coverage combined with the 90s being a foreign country to them leading to negative perceptions of Clinton. Throw in people too young and stupid to remember how the whole 2000 election went down, Sanders in the primary exacerbating the issue and some just generally too stupid to know what Johnson and Stein are actually about and you get low numbers.

[Boris the Blade]

56 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

^^^^

To be fair, Trump has autodestructed at a level never before seen. It just doesn't budge his base. How it's not scaring the shit out of anyone considering voting 3rd party is beyond me though. 

Because they're tantrum throwing ignorant shitheads that think burning everything down will wake everyone up, when in reality the damage that will be done will make everyone hate the assholes that went 3rd party and helped create the mess that will come if Trump becomes president. Basically, they don't care about women, people of color, the lgbtqia community etc. 

[Patrek_Mallister]

4 hours ago, Harakiri said:

Because they're tantrum throwing ignorant shitheads that think burning everything down will wake everyone up, when in reality the damage that will be done will make everyone hate the assholes that went 3rd party and helped create the mess that will come if Trump becomes president. Basically, they don't care about women, people of color, the lgbtqia community etc. 

Isn't it more plausible that the Democratic party does not represent their ideals, than that they are tantrum throwing shitheads?

[Boris the Blade]

46 minutes ago, Patrek_Mallister said:

Isn't it more plausible that the Democratic party does not represent their ideals, than that they are tantrum throwing shitheads?

Their ideals are pretty shitty if they are okay with Trump getting the presidency and having the power to nominate supreme court justices and have the rights of marginalized demographics attacked and help set the country back decades. Fuck their ideals and shitty justification for not protecting what is more important than their selfish "ideals" aka tantrum throwing. 

[Patrek_Mallister]

11 minutes ago, Harakiri said:

Their ideals are pretty shitty if they are okay with Trump getting the presidency and having the power to nominate supreme court justices and have the rights of marginalized demographics attacked and help set the country back decades. Fuck their ideals and shitty justification for not protecting what is more important than their selfish "ideals" aka tantrum throwing. 

Is it always wrong to vote for a third party rather than Democrat? Or is this election special in that regard?

[all swedes are racist]

59 minutes ago, Patrek_Mallister said:

Isn't it more plausible that the Democratic party does not represent their ideals, than that they are tantrum throwing shitheads?

Well, speaking as one of these shitbag millennialis who does not feel the Democratic Party does not adequately represent my ideals, and who holds in my heart a deep and lasting resentment toward the founders and all the fuckers since who have worked to entrench the reality of the two party system we have-- fuck that shit.

dont like the system? Work to change it-- volunteer and donate to causes , starting at local and regional levels to build a foundation to work on-- don't just stand up this once every four years (or more) and yeah, yeah I'll say it, throw a electoral tantrum that could possibly serve to endanger my liberal, progressive ideals far more than any democratic nominee would. great, you showed them! while the "establishment/elites" work out how to turn the next election around, millions of people and their families will only experience greater struggle in trying to provide for their children, stay healthy, keep a job and pay their bills, etc... so yeah, I'd call those uncritical thinking asswarts that only care that the social media candidate lost the primary the tantrum throwing crybabies

sorry for the rant, but fuck those clowns (also will be able to clarify thought and respond better when slightly soberer and not trying to watch this first season of Avatar.... poor fuckin cabbage man)

[Boris the Blade]

7 minutes ago, Patrek_Mallister said:

Is it always wrong to vote for a third party rather than Democrat? Or is this election special in that regard?

This election is special in that regard since there is a lot up in the air thanks to seats being open for supreme court justices and who the Presidential and VP nominees are. The GOP candidates are two known bigots (racists, misogynists, anti lgbtqia). Pence has said he will get abortion to be illegal and overturn gay marriage. These things have been fought for over the past few decades, hell even a century or more, we can not allow that to be destroyed. We also can not allow one of the most bigoted nominees to become president after out first black president.  Look what happened when we had people vote third party back in 2000 instead of going Gore, we got Bush and with having him as president we had 2 wars, a horrible economy and created more enemies and helped destabilize the middle east. 
 
Trump will be worse than Bush, civil rights will be trampled, they will be set back and people will suffer. That is just here in the US alone. Trump is a danger to the world,  not just the US. Making sure that doesn't happen is more important than sticking it to the DNC because of some of the shady shit they have done and just because Sanders didn't win. 
It's childish and extremely short sighted. It will also backfire on them and have many people that may feel the same way about the DNC turn on them and resent them for being apart of the fall out that would come with a Trump presidency.
 

 

[all swedes are racist]

16 minutes ago, Patrek_Mallister said:

Is it always wrong to vote for a third party rather than Democrat? Or is this election special in that regard?

Depends on what your stated goals are. Again, letting a candidate that is going to likely do as much as in their power to actively oppose ones ideals for the sake of 'symbolism' or 'voting your conscience' both stupid and counterproductive; if you want real third party change, put in the time, money and effort that makes an environment more receptive to viability of their party (representing more refined ideals of choice)

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

39 minutes ago, Patrek_Mallister said:

Is it always wrong to vote for a third party rather than Democrat? Or is this election special in that regard?

I think this election is special in that regard in that there has never been a major party candidate as spectacularly unqualified to serve as Donald Trump is. 

[Patrek_Mallister]

33 minutes ago, R'hllors Red Lobster said:

dont like the system? Work to change it-- volunteer and donate to causes , starting at local and regional levels to build a foundation to work on-- don't just stand up this once every four years (or more) and yeah, yeah I'll say it, throw a electoral tantrum that could possibly serve to endanger my liberal, progressive ideals far more than any democratic nominee would. great, you showed them! while the "establishment/elites" work out how to turn the next election around, millions of people and their families will only experience greater struggle in trying to provide for their children, stay healthy, keep a job and pay their bills, etc... so yeah, I'd call those uncritical thinking asswarts that only care that the social media candidate lost the primary the tantrum throwing crybabies

Maybe you think the point is moot now so close to the wire. But isn't supporting a third party a prime way to work toward changing things? Is the problem just with people who defect late in the game despite having no long-term commitments?

19 minutes ago, Harakiri said:

This election is special in that regard since there is a lot up in the air thanks to seats being open for supreme court justices and who the Presidential and VP nominees are. The GOP candidates are two known bigots (racists, misogynists, anti lgbtqia). Pence has said he will get abortion to be illegal and overturn gay marriage. These things have been fought for over the past few decades, hell even a century or more, we can not allow that to be destroyed. We also can not allow one of the most bigoted nominees to become president after out first black president.  Look what happened when we had people vote third party back in 2000 instead of going Gore, we got Bush and with having him as president we had 2 wars, a horrible economy and created more enemies and helped destabilize the middle east. 

One thing I don't get, though, is it seems like this has been the case every presidential election for some time, and might be for several more election cycles. The Republicans are a kind of perpetual threat to certain civil rights. If your logic is sound, this would effectively mean that the need to stop the Republicans from controlling the White House is always so urgent that taking any course of action other than voting Democrat is something to be insulted for. That is not a happy state of affairs, and the attitude that all a Democrat has to do is be something other than a Republican gives them the idea that they can get away with whatever they want. The kind of defense being laid out for the DNC in this very post – saying that doing anything other than taking it from the establishment is childish – solidifies that impression. In a way, they can get away with doing anything they want. 

It also seems to me like the warmongering is more or less bipartisan. I don't see the Democrats in any way as a party of peace compared to the Republicans. 

[Boris the Blade]

18 minutes ago, Patrek_Mallister said:

Maybe you think the point is moot now so close to the wire. But isn't supporting a third party a prime way to work toward changing things? Is the problem just with people who defect late in the game despite having no long-term commitments?

One thing I don't get, though, is it seems like this has been the case every presidential election for some time, and might be for several more election cycles. The Republicans are a kind of perpetual threat to certain civil rights. If your logic is sound, this would effectively mean that the need to stop the Republicans from controlling the White House is always so urgent that taking any course of action other than voting Democrat is something to be insulted for. That is not a happy state of affairs, and the attitude that all a Democrat has to do is be something other than a Republican gives them the idea that they can get away with whatever they want. The kind of defense being laid out for the DNC in this very post – saying that doing anything other than taking it from the establishment is childish – solidifies that impression. In a way, they can get away with doing anything they want. 

It also seems to me like the warmongering is more or less bipartisan. I don't see the Democrats in any way as a party of peace compared to the Republicans. 

They have been a threat to civil rights for decades thanks to conservative justices out numbering liberal justices. There is a reason everyone saying this is not the year to fuck around because there is too much at stake. That is why I said we will be set back decades if we allow the right to win and have the power to choose who gets the seats.  Third party / write in voters this year are just plain ignorant. They either have no clue what is really stake or worse, selfishly do not care.