Rhaegars orders for Gerold, Arthur and Oswell at the Tower of Joy.

[SFDanny]

@Macgregor of the North & @Rhaenys_Targaryen

I'd also add into the timeline the events proceeding the sack, such as Rossart's elevation to being the Hand and the Flight to Dragonstone, and those taking place right after, such as Robert's coronation etc.

[Macgregor of the North]

7 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

@Macgregor of the North & @Rhaenys_Targaryen

I'd also add into the timeline the events proceeding the sack, such as Rossart's elevation to being the Hand and the Flight to Dragonstone, and those taking place right after, such as Robert's coronation etc.

All in due time, if I get the time. it was more on Dany Robb and Jons births and how the war played out and who, where, why what and when etc I was trying to figure out. Things like Margaerys birth etc that you mentioned earlier is not something I needed to know really for the piece. But if I fancy putting together a totally detailed timeline I'll use the template me and Rhaenys have and add things with your consultation like the rossart info etc for sure!.

[SFDanny]

52 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

All in due time, if I get the time. it was more on Dany Robb and Jons births and how the war played out and who, where, why what and when etc I was trying to figure out. Things like Margaerys birth etc that you mentioned earlier is not something I needed to know really for the piece. But if I fancy putting together a totally detailed timeline I'll use the template me and Rhaenys have and add things with your consultation like the rossart info etc for sure!.

Ahhh, no rush, just let me know.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

5 hours ago, SFDanny said:

@Macgregor of the North and @Rhaenys_Targaryen

I'd add Margaery's birth into the late 283 events after Robb is born, but it's a good working hypothesis. I'd also put a little separation between the Battle of the Bells, which could take place in very late 282, and the wedding that has to take place in 283. Can't say how long it takes for the armies to march from Stony Sept to Riverrun, but a Martin "fortnight" is a good possibility.

Good stuff.

<snp>

Which reminds me, do you want quotes to back up Margaery's birth in 283? If so, let me know, and I'd be happy to provide it.

We know that Margaery must have been conceived prior to Mace's march on Storm's End to start the siege (unless Alerie visited her husband at the site of the siege, which is extremely unlikely, considering it was war). That alone would place Margaery's birth near Robb's, but, of course, it is not precise enough.

We know that Robb turns sixteen several days before Catelyn's last chapter in ACOK, which takes place near the Blackwater (Catelyn learning about the battle a few days into her captivity). Margaery, at the start of ASOS, is still fifteen (Appendix), yet by the time she reaches KL, she is sixteen, indicating that her nameday occurs after the Blackwater.

Margaery's age is also mentioned in AGOT

The Knight of Flowers writes Highgarden, urging his lord father to send his sister to court. The girl is a maid of fourteen, sweet and beautiful and tractable, and Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen.

Margaery was born in 283 AC, and in this quote from AGOT, she is still fourteen, meaning that, as the chapter takes place in 298 AC, Margaery's nameday still has to pass. As this scene takes place on the same day as Yoren arrives to inform Ned about Catelyn's kidnapping of Tyrion, we know that Tyrion has departed the Wall already, which he does after Jon's nameday, placing Margaery's birth after Jon's in the year. 

And Jon is considered to be younger than Robb, hence, Margaery's birth must have occured after Robb's (and Jon's).

And the Siege thus would have started within nine months before Margaery's birth (as the nine months would include the march to SE as well.)

Do you recall any other clues? Did I miss anything?

Edit: And, of course, we can say that Margaery was not born in the last month of the year, as she had turned sixteen in 299 AC before Sansa's marriage to Tyrion, which took place at least a month before the Red Wedding, which still took place in 299 AC. How much time there passes between the Red Wedding and the Purple Wedding on the first day of the year, or how long prior to Sansa's marriage Margaery has been in KL, cannot be determined with any specificity (although Joffrey appears to be convinced that there's still plenty of time to have a rider riding from the Twins to KL before his marriage takes place, after the Red Wedding).

 

Quote

edit: Let me also add I wouldn't worry if the start of the Rebellion is a little longer than a year before the sack of King's Landing. The quote is "The war raged for close to a year." (AGoT 96)  So I don't see much problem if it goes a little longer or a little shorter than a year.

I agree. I've been arguing for a few years that the war might have taken a bit longer than 12 months, instead of a bit less. Though not all agree that interpretation is a good possibility, I must admit.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

1 hour ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Explain how you see it all for me please. Why not, I have time. 

Viserys sees his mother dead on Dragonstone in June 284AC. Does she birth a still born? There's no mention of it absolutely anywhere. What exactly happens there?

When does Viserys meet Daenerys for the first time? How old is she? How old is he? 

Is it an elaborate plan for him to treat her as his sister although she is Rhaegars child? Why? 

And it seems like you are implying he knew she was Rhaegars? Is this true? 

Who else is in on this deal to pass Dany of fas Daenerys Stormborn when Infact she is Rhaegar and Lyannas child. 

Also, GRRM has said Dany was named by her mother. Lyanna in this case is it?? 

Much to explain here. And I hope you take the time to explain it fully with text to back it up, instead of that half hearted attempt to sabotage my other thread with that garbage about Richard Lonmouth being part of the Storms end siege Garrison with Stannis Baratheon, which after I replied with text to back up my words you went eerily quiet. 

I'm not meaning to be nasty or anything but I'll admit, I get sick of people jumping on threads to pump up their own 'theories' which funnily enough, I'll garauntee is NOT even your own theory. You just read it somewhere else.

My intent isn't to piss you off, nor would I claim that I came up with all the things I've said, honestly it's been so long and there are so many intricacies that it's hard to remember how it all pieces together. I did a pretty long post a few years ago laying out my theory but it got lost when this website got revamped... The Richard Lonmoth "garbage", I got the distinct impression you didn't really want to hear it, and let's be honest I'm on this board purely for entertainment, so I stopped. But I'd still bet he's Lem Lemon Cloak and will end up performing a Howland Reed like reveal at some point.

Ok, so first, it's kinda petty but we can't really use a Greco Roman calendar since it's never used in the books, seasons last for years, and we don't even really know if their years are the same length as ours (365 days). A moon's turn roughly corresponds to a month, and that is used, but it seems intentionally difficult to draw a precise calendar. 

We get no first hand accounts of what happened on Dragonstone. This leaves a big hole in the history (there are many).

We have Jaime's account of Rhaella's impregnation and flight:

The sight had filled him with disquiet, reminding him of Aerys Targaryen and the way a burning would arouse him. A king has no secrets from his Kingsguard. Relations between Aerys and his queen had been strained during the last years of his reign. They slept apart and did their best to avoid each other during the waking hours. But whenever Aerys gave a man to the flames, Queen Rhaella would have a visitor in the night. The day he burned his mace-and-dagger Hand, Jaime and Jon Darry had stood at guard outside her bedchamber whilst the king took his pleasure. "You're hurting me," they had heard Rhaella cry through the oaken door. "You're hurting me." In some queer way, that had been worse than Lord Chelsted's screaming. "We are sworn to protect her as well," Jaime had finally been driven to say. "We are," Darry allowed, "but not from him." 

Jaime had only seen Rhaella once after that, the morning of the day she left for Dragonstone. The queen had been cloaked and hooded as she climbed inside the royal wheelhouse that would take her down Aegon's High Hill to the waiting ship, but he heard her maids whispering after she was gone. They said the queen looked as if some beast had savaged her, clawing at her thighs and chewing on her breasts. A crowned beast, Jaime knew.

Of course this doesn't jive with what Viserys told Dany:

 

 

Yet sometimes Dany would picture the way it had been, so often had her brother told her the stories. The midnight flight to Dragonstone, moonlight shimmering on the ship's black sails. Her brother Rhaegar battling the Usurper in the bloody waters of the Trident and dying for the woman he loved. The sack of King's Landing by the ones Viserys called the Usurper's dogs, the lords Lannister and Stark.

In this case I have to believe the primary source (Jaime) as opposed to the stories Dany has been told, and this opens the door to what else has Viserys changed in his version of these stories... For instance, Eddard Stark didn't sack KL, not that would Viserys would know or care about that little detail. But again, his stories aren't reliable...

It seems to be a pretty reliable fact that Rhaella died on Dragonstone giving birth. But otherwise details here are scarce, Dany believes the story that Darry and 4 loyal men escaped with Viserys and the baby... But if we have begun to doubt the reliability of Visery's stories, we don't really have hard evidence besides that neither the children nor Darry were there when Stannis arrived. If Rhaella had a still birth or less than healthy child there isn't any reason to think we would know, after all Darry took the nurse with him.

After the Dragonstone escape we actually have very little evidence to go on before the series starts... We have Dany's house with the red door and lemon tree memories, and we have the explanation of them being thrown out of he House with the Red Door:

 

She did not remember Dragonstone either. They had run again, just before the Usurper's brother set sail with his new-built fleet. By then only Dragonstone itself, the ancient seat of their House, had remained of the Seven Kingdoms that had once been theirs. It would not remain for long. The garrison had been prepared to sell them to the Usurper, but one night Ser Willem Darry and four loyal men had broken into the nursery and stolen them both, along with her wet nurse, and set sail under cover of darkness for the safety of the Braavosian coast.

She remembered Ser Willem dimly, a great grey bear of a man, half-blind, roaring and bellowing orders from his sickbed. The servants had lived in terror of him, but he had always been kind to Dany. He called her "Little Princess" and sometimes "My Lady," and his hands were soft as old leather. He never left his bed, though, and the smell of sickness clung to him day and night, a hot, moist, sickly sweet odor. That was when they lived in Braavos, in the big house with the red door. Dany had her own room there, with a lemon tree outside her window. After Ser Willem had died, the servants had stolen what little money they had left, and soon after they had been put out of the big house. Dany had cried when the red door closed behind them forever. 

They had wandered since then, from Braavos to Myr, from Myr to Tyrosh, and on to Qohor and Volantis and Lys, never staying long in any one place. Her brother would not allow it. The Usurper's hired knives were close behind them, he insisted, though Dany had never seen one.

 

 

Now I just want to point out how again how Viserys isn't to be trusted. We factually know that the Usurper sent no hired knives until after Dany got pregnant. Also, probably worth asking what happened to those four loyal men, and why the servants wouldn't steal Rhaella's crown, which Viserys and Dany sell later.

We don't know a lot here, but we do have a few more bits of evidence to go on. The marriage contract between Dorne and Viserys was signed by Willem Darry and Oberyn Martel, as well as witnessed by the OLD Sealord of Braavos. The old sealord presumably died at some point... Now wether there was foul play is another question, but it doesn't seem all that unlikely

Also we know this from Illyrio:

 

"That did not stop you selling her to Khal Drogo …"

"Dothraki neither buy nor sell. Say rather that her brother Viserys gave her to Drogo to win the khal's friendship. A vain young man, and greedy. Viserys lusted for his father's throne, but he lusted for Daenerys too, and was loath to give her up. The night before the princess wed he tried to steal into her bed, insisting that if he could not have her hand, he would claim her maidenhead. Had I not taken the precaution of posting guards upon her door, Viserys might have undone years of planning." 

"He sounds an utter fool."

 

 

"Viserys was Mad Aerys's son, just so. Daenerys … Daenerys is quite different." He popped a roasted lark into his mouth and crunched it noisily, bones and all. "The frightened child who sheltered in my manse died on the Dothraki sea, and was reborn in blood and fire. This dragon queen who wears her name is a true Targaryen.

Years of planning led up to the Dany-Drogo marriage... these seem to be the same years that Dany and Viserys wandered from around the free cities. During his time they acquired they're adorable nicknames and are paraded from court to court almost like someone wanted their faces and names to be indisputably associated. After all it's hard to believe that Illyrio was really letting them just wander and beg without any sort of oversight if he's working so hard on a plan requiring them.

There is a lot of vagueness, and a lot of moving pieces, but it seems to me that we have a few key events that need to be accounted for...

Dany leaves the house with the red door. Bear with me for a minute and let's say this isn't in Braavos but in Dorne. She thinks of it as Home and it is often subtly associated with Westeros:

Home? The word made her feel sad. Ser Jorah had his Bear Island, but what was home to her? A few tales, names recited as solemnly as the words of a prayer, the fading memory of a red door … was Vaes Dothrak to be her home forever? When she looked at the crones of the dosh khaleen, was she looking at her future?

Next, the Dorne-Viserys marriage pact, where we know Oberyn was in Braavos, and it doesn't include Dany.

I'm suggesting that this is when Dany and Viserys would have met for the first time (remember I don't think the Willem Darry Dany thinks of as a caretaker is the real Willem Darry, the real man signed the pact, then died, and/or was killed). We have both Darry and the sealord seeming to die soon after this.

 

The old knight read the pact slowly. "If Robert had known of this, he would have smashed Sunspear as he once smashed Pyke, and claimed the heads of Prince Doran and the Red Viper … and like as not, the head of this Dornish princess too."

"No doubt that was why Prince Doran chose to keep the pact a secret," suggested Daenerys. "If my brother Viserys had known that he had a Dornish princess waiting for him, he would have crossed to Sunspear as soon as he was old enough to wed." 

"And thereby brought Robert's warhammer down upon himself, and Dorne as well," said Frog. "My father was content to wait for the day that Prince Viserys found his army."

So it seems Doran knew Viserys was searching for an army... This begs the question if he has been in league/contact with Illyrio.

Bear with me, I'm suggesting his whole web is tied together.

Because while this is all going on Illyrio and Varys are also raising Aegon... Who I'm not alone in thinking isn't really the child of Elia and Rhaegar... And has some interesting companions, who's identities aren't quite clear yet. The intent seems to be to let Viserys invade with the Dothraki, and to send Aegon with the Golden Company along to take over as a savior once everyone realizes Viserys is another mad King. 

Ok, back to Dany and the motives for the coverup...

Darry- dead one way or another, not in on the plan

Sealord- He and Darry seemed to have been the protectors of Viserys after Dragonstone, however if someone wanted to insert Dany as Viserys's sister these two would be the two big characters who could refute the switch... Both dead, arguably at a similar time.

Martels- They get to cover up the fact that Rhaegar had a baby with a woman other than Elia, while at the same time providing a bartering chip which after Illyrio dresses her up as a princess he can parley into a Dothraki Horde. Remember that in Dorne women inherit, so if they didn't know about Jon then Dany would inherit, this plot lets them get rid of her without murder, but also plot their revenge/return to the throne. Even now Quentyn is really sent after dragons, not Dany herself, something repeated a lot.

The old knight had heard enough. "What Prince Quentyn did he did for Dorne. Do you take me for some doting grandfather? I have spent my life around kings and queens and princes. Sunspear means to take up arms against the Iron Throne. No, do not trouble to deny it. Doran Martell is not a man to call his spears without hope of victory. Duty brought Prince Quentyn here. Duty, honor, thirst for glory … never love. Quentyn was here for dragons, not Daenerys."

Illyrio/Varys- I think I covered this but they are trying the old double baby double cross... In fact the Dany plot could have inspired the (f)Aegon one if, for instance, Illyrio found he had himself a blonde haired purple eyes baby.

Viserys- The abusive fool who fed Dany all her info about herself and her homeland... He could easily hate her for being the love child of Rhaegar and Lyanna, which caused the death of everyone in his family. Or the fact that Dany would have a case for being heir in front of him... Alternatively,   if you don't think R+L got married, then pretending she's his sister makes her legitimate and thus a good bride to be sold off. Would Drogo have married some bastard? I like the combo where R+L were married but nobody involved with this plot knew.

I find myself here doing a lot of rambling, I'd be happy to go on but I'm not sure if it's worth it.

[cgrav]

If Dany is actually Rheagar's daughter then I would expect Viserys was fed a lie that they were siblings. His words and behavior indicate such indiscretion that he would have spilled the beans. 

[SFDanny]

2 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Do you recall any other clues? Did I miss anything?

Not a thing, my friend, not a thing. Excellent as always. When I worked on most of that information in 2008, I wish I had your input. It would have been much easier. I still think that by using the sequencing of name days, and how they fall around certain events we can construct a workable timeline. I've kicked around some ideas in my head since then, so if I can contribute to your effort along with anyone else who is actual serious about the task, just let me know.

2 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I agree. I've been arguing for a few years that the war might have taken a bit longer than 12 months, instead of a bit less. Though not all agree that interpretation is a good possibility, I must admit.

We agree on this as well. 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

21 minutes ago, cgrav said:

If Dany is actually Rheagar's daughter then I would expect Viserys was fed a lie that they were siblings. His words and behavior indicate such indiscretion that he would have spilled the beans. 

It's possible, I mean lets be honest a lot of what I wrote was wild speculation trying to fill in gaps... But at this point Viserys is dead so it's kinda moot.

 I didn't touch the textual hints at Dany's parentage or the literary reasons it would work. Just trying to show how it might have gone down

[Macgregor of the North]

@LiveFirstDieLater

On Lonmouth. Take it back to my 'squire's know things' thread and I'll easily debate it with you there if you like? You had zero and I countered with text that left you speechless, let's have it right. 

And You seem to be confused though, I never disputed that he was Lem. What I did debunk though and still will, on my OTHER thread, is that Richard Lonmouth was part of Stannis' small garrison at Storms End that held out through a years siege. Like I said take it back there and we can duke it out in a  friendly fashion if your game?

 

[Macgregor of the North]

13 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Ahhh, no rush, just let me know.

I certainly will mate. I believe we have the beginnings of a very decent timeline and will give you and @Rhaenys_Targaryen a shout again soon to further construct it.

[Macgregor of the North]

10 hours ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

I did a pretty long post a few years ago laying out my theory but it got lost when this website got revamped... 

I find myself here doing a lot of rambling, I'd be happy to go on but I'm not sure if it's worth it.

You were rambling a wee bit but I'm glad you proved you have it in you to present some text to back up what you are saying, as opposed to that Lonmouth debacle where you had nowt.

So now that you have your basis for a thread of your 'own', and since 'your' last thread was inconveniently lost, how about you begin a whole new one(not this one, remember mate this is my one) stating everything you just have and I will gladly come on and duke it out there? 

Hows that sound? Since you feel so strongly on the topic I'm sure you will and believe me, I'll be there. Til then. 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

6 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@LiveFirstDieLater

On Lonmouth. Take it back to my 'squire's know things' thread and I'll easily debate it with you there if you like? You had zero and I countered with text that left you speechless, let's have it right. 

And You seem to be confused though, I never disputed that he was Lem. What I did debunk though and still will, on my OTHER thread, is that Richard Lonmouth was part of Stannis' small garrison at Storms End that held out through a years siege. Like I said take it back there and we can duke it out in a  friendly fashion if your game?

 

I was trying to give your idea that Ned couldn't have known about the ToJ until lifting the siege a potential out... But honestly I'm over this

[Little Scribe of Naath]

22 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

So it's looking like we have Rhaegar throw his whole belief on the Comet really. Which Aemon curiously says: 

"He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet."

Doesn't this hint at ever so slightly that Aemon never felt as strongly as Rhaegar  about the bleeding star being a Comet? 
Either way, Rhaegar places all his chips on red and sticks with it. It appears we might be close to how Rhaegar perceived the Ice and Fire part of it, if he looked into it that much in the first place, which I believe he must have since he is quite an intelligent man. I think he just applied it to Aegon because he was so swayed by the Comet

Basically, in GRRM's world, the best way to deal with prophecy is to ignore it and let it happen, because it's going to happen anyway. Trying to avoid it(Cersei) or actively fulfill it (Rhaegar, Melisandre, etc.) is of no use - it's going to happen anyway, and it'll happen in the most unexpected of ways.

In a way, Rhaegar's belief that Aegon was PtwP because of the comet shows the extent to which he was obsessed with the prophecy coming true. I mean, he was grasping at all straws he could get. It's like us, the readers - when we have a pet theory/character, we feel like every other line in the books seems intended just for that

[Macgregor of the North]

7 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Basically, in GRRM's world, the best way to deal with prophecy is to ignore it and let it happen, because it's going to happen anyway. Trying to avoid it(Cersei) or actively fulfill it (Rhaegar, Melisandre, etc.) is of no use - it's going to happen anyway, and it'll happen in the most unexpected of ways.

In a way, Rhaegar's belief that Aegon was PtwP because of the comet shows the extent to which he was obsessed with the prophecy coming true. I mean, he was grasping at all straws he could get.

True indeed.

 

7 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

It's like us, the readers - when we have a pet theory/character, we feel like every other line in the books seems intended just for that

Very very true indeed lol.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

12 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Basically, in GRRM's world, the best way to deal with prophecy is to ignore it and let it happen, because it's going to happen anyway. Trying to avoid it(Cersei) or actively fulfill it (Rhaegar, Melisandre, etc.) is of no use - it's going to happen anyway, and it'll happen in the most unexpected of ways.

In a way, Rhaegar's belief that Aegon was PtwP because of the comet shows the extent to which he was obsessed with the prophecy coming true. I mean, he was grasping at all straws he could get. It's like us, the readers - when we have a pet theory/character, we feel like every other line in the books seems intended just for that

I think that Rhaegar's believe changed from himself to Aegon because Aegon fitted the "criteria" just slightly more than Rhaegar himself had. Both were princes of House Targaryen, and both had been born admits smoke and salt. But only for Aegon's conception, the "bleeding star" appeared.. Which is not entirely how the prophecy framed it, by the way, as the prophecy states (according to Marwyn) "born beneath a bleeding star".. But apparently, in Rhaegar's mind, the presence of the comet was enough to convince him that Aegon was the one.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

11 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I think that Rhaegar's believe changed from himself to Aegon because Aegon fitted the "criteria" just slightly more than Rhaegar himself had. Both were princes of House Targaryen, and both had been born admits smoke and salt. But only for Aegon's conception, the "bleeding star" appeared.. Which is not entirely how the prophecy framed it, by the way, as the prophecy states (according to Marwyn) "born beneath a bleeding star".. But apparently, in Rhaegar's mind, the presence of the comet was enough to convince him that Aegon was the one.

Wait, was Aegon's birth among smoke and salt? Because he was born on DS?

This whole prophecy thing is unclear. If Aegon had been the PtwP, the comet should have been seen at his birth, right? Does it apply to the time of conception too?

[Macgregor of the North]

5 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Wait, was Aegon's birth among smoke and salt? Because he was born on DS?

This whole prophecy thing is unclear. If Aegon had been the PtwP, the comet should have been seen at his birth, right? Does it apply to the time of conception too?

I have always thought Aegon was born on Dragonstone, it seems so as that's where he is with Elia when he is a baby. 

The bleeding star part @Rhaenys_Targaryen to be fair it is only said by Marwyn once that he will be born under a bleeding star. Other accounts say 'when the stars bleed', 'when the red star bleeds' etc. 

Theres a thing I always thought about but never pushed it to much as its likeky wrong but I'll share it all the same, why not. It is said 'when the stars bleed'. The Dothraki are mentioned as calling the stars the valiant dead. I wondered if it were a possibility that the War of the five Kings could herald the Long night and all those that died- 'When the stars bleed'. 

"The Dothraki believe the stars are spirits of the valiant dead," Theon said. Maester Luwin had told him that, a long time ago."

"In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world."

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

6 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Wait, was Aegon's birth among smoke and salt? Because he was born on DS?

This whole prophecy thing is unclear. If Aegon had been the PtwP, the comet should have been seen at his birth, right? Does it apply to the time of conception too?

Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt.. At least, that's how our characters in the books seem to take it. Smoke from the Dragonmont, salt from the sea. But having been born on Dragonstone doesn't make Aegon special. The red comet, however, is far less frequently in occurance, of course, and therefore, it is not surprising that Rhaegar took it to mean something.

All statements only speak of a bleeding star, but Marwyn states when the bleeding star (which Rhaegar took to be the comet) should appear.. Perhaps Rhaegar, realizing it was the night of Aegon's conception, took "birth" to mean "creation" instead of actual childbirth.. Who knows?

But that fact that it was Aegon's conception, and not his birth, at which the comet appeared, might be a hint showing that Rhaegar was, after all, wrong about his interpretation.

The red comet first appeared the night of Drogo's funeral pyre, the night Daenerys was "reborn" in smoke (after having previously been born in a storm, providing the salt), but it actually appeared before she stepped into the fire. Is that an essential difference, or does it still count that way? I can't say, but the timing is certainly interesting to keep in the back of our minds.

25 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

I have always thought Aegon was born on Dragonstone, it seems so as that's where he is with Elia when he is a baby. 

The bleeding star part @Rhaenys_Targaryen to be fair it is only said by Marwyn once that he will be born under a bleeding star. Other accounts say 'when the stars bleed', 'when the red star bleeds' etc. 

Yes, but those other accounts don't speak of a timing at which the bleeding star should appear. That's only Marwyn's account, so I would argue to keep that account in mind, too.

25 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

Theres a thing I always thought about but never pushed it to much as its likeky wrong but I'll share it all the same, why not. It is said 'when the stars bleed'. The Dothraki are mentioned as calling the stars the valiant dead. I wondered if it were a possibility that the War of the five Kings could herald the Long night and all those that died- 'When the stars bleed'. 

"The Dothraki believe the stars are spirits of the valiant dead," Theon said. Maester Luwin had told him that, a long time ago."

"In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world."

That's interesting, but if the stars are the spirits of the dead, does that mean that the dead should be bleeding? It's easy to place the long summer, and the "cold breath of darkness", but "stars", in plural..?

[Macgregor of the North]

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Dragonstone is the place of smoke and salt.. At least, that's how our characters in the books seem to take it. Smoke from the Dragonmont, salt from the sea. But having been born on Dragonstone doesn't make Aegon special. The red comet, however, is far less frequently in occurance, of course, and therefore, it is not surprising that Rhaegar took it to mean something.

All statements only speak of a bleeding star, but Marwyn states when the bleeding star (which Rhaegar took to be the comet) should appear.. Perhaps Rhaegar, realizing it was the night of Aegon's conception, took "birth" to mean "creation" instead of actual childbirth.. Who knows?

But that fact that it was Aegon's conception, and not his birth, at which the comet appeared, might be a hint showing that Rhaegar was, after all, wrong about his interpretation.

The red comet first appeared the night of Drogo's funeral pyre, the night Daenerys was "reborn" in smoke (after having previously been born in a storm, providing the salt), but it actually appeared before she stepped into the fire. Is that an essential difference, or does it still count that way? I can't say, but the timing is certainly interesting to keep in the back of our minds.

Yes, but those other accounts don't speak of a timing at which the bleeding star should appear. That's only Marwyn's account, so I would argue to keep that account in mind, too.

That's interesting, but if the stars are the spirits of the dead, does that mean that the dead should be bleeding? It's easy to place the long summer, and the "cold breath of darkness", but "stars", in plural..?

We must keep in mind though that Aemon never saw Dragonstone as the place of smoke and salt in the prophecy. He viewed it as Summerhall didn't he. He is the one thinking outside the norm of the Dragonstone assumptions which of course has opened up lots more possibilities, and interestingly he is the one who thinks differently in regards to the prince/princess angle.

In the end maybe all the interpretations will have their truths, even Jons with the smoking wounds, the tears and the dead mans stars sigil.

 

To the end bit, I suppose all dead are bleeding in battle, and if the stars are the valiant dead, then aren't they forever doomed to be in the state they were at death, bleeding. I'm just spitballing here mind you. 

'When the stars bleed', the stars are the valiant dead in the sky, forever bleeding as in their last state they were in at time of death. The War of the five Kings came at the end of the longest summer on record. 'Their will come a day after a long summer  when the stars bleed'.

When we think of people appearing as dead in the story, don't they always appear as how they were at time of death? Like Theons dream etc, and im sure there's more instances.

[Lord Varys]

18 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I think that Rhaegar's believe changed from himself to Aegon because Aegon fitted the "criteria" just slightly more than Rhaegar himself had. Both were princes of House Targaryen, and both had been born admits smoke and salt. But only for Aegon's conception, the "bleeding star" appeared.. Which is not entirely how the prophecy framed it, by the way, as the prophecy states (according to Marwyn) "born beneath a bleeding star".. But apparently, in Rhaegar's mind, the presence of the comet was enough to convince him that Aegon was the one.

Yeah, that certainly is the outside part of it. But we have to assume that Rhaegar was already very much open to the possibility that he wasn't the promised prince after all. Perhaps because his parents couldn't produce two brothers who were close to him in age? Rhaegar wouldn't have known in the night of Aegon's conception that Aegon was conceived that night. He would have needed to wait quite some time to know that Elia was pregnant. Only then could the comet have become truly significant.

Could also be that he took the sight of the comet as a sign that they would have made a son this night. But then - he would only have thought or wanted this to be the promised prince if he no longer thought he himself was the guy.