Rhaegars orders for Gerold, Arthur and Oswell at the Tower of Joy.

[Lord Varys]

16 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said:

We must keep in mind though that Aemon never saw Dragonstone as the place of smoke and salt in the prophecy. He viewed it as Summerhall didn't he. He is the one thinking outside the norm of the Dragonstone assumptions which of course has opened up lots more possibilities, and interestingly he is the one who thinks differently in regards to the prince/princess angle.

In the end maybe all the interpretations will have their truths, even Jons with the smoking wounds, the tears and the dead mans stars sigil.

Dragonstone is also - most definitely not by accident - described as the place of smoke and salt by Yandel when he tells us that Dragonstone, the place of the Conqueror's birth, remained his favorite residence his entire life. That could very well be George telling us what the place of smoke and salt actually is.

Dany was born there, and she the storm in the night of her birth could very well have carried wisps of smoke from the Dragonmount as well as spray from the sea into the very chamber her mother gave birth to her.

By the way:

The same rationale the Targaryens used to justify Rhaegar's birth at Summerhall as him being born amidst smoke and salt (smoke from the fire, tears for the dead) could also be attributed to Drogo's pyre. Smoke was there aplenty and ash chemically consists of a variety of different salts. Daenerys was amidst both when she climbed on the pyre.

[Macgregor of the North]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, that certainly is the outside part of it. But we have to assume that Rhaegar was already very much open to the possibility that he wasn't the promised prince after all. Perhaps because his parents couldn't produce two brothers who were close to him in age? Rhaegar wouldn't have known in the night of Aegon's conception that Aegon was conceived that night. He would have needed to wait quite some time to know that Elia was pregnant. Only then could the comet have become truly significant.

Could also be that he took the sight of the comet as a sign that they would have made a son this night. But then - he would only have thought or wanted this to be the promised prince if he no longer thought he himself was the guy.

If we view Rhaegars relationship with the frail Elia as more dutiful than passionate. Then upon seeing the comet we could assume that they tried for a baby that night on the strength of seeing the comet and Rhaegar believing it was the bleeding star, whereas they weren't exactly having sex otherwise. Like the comet prompted him to instigate this sexual encounter and when they noticed Elia was pregnant Rhaegar thinks even more now that the Comet meant something in regards to the Prophecy and that Elia may be carrying the PtwP.

When Aegon is born it just bolsters his assumption. He is dead certain now.

Maybe Rhaegar had never saw a comet, and always thought he must be the PtwP but as soon as he sees it he thinks, woah, that is the bleeding star right there!, if I try for a baby tonight and the seed quickens, then this baby is the ptwp.

[Macgregor of the North]

1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

Dragonstone is also - most definitely not by accident - described as the place of smoke and salt by Yandel when he tells us that Dragonstone, the place of the Conqueror's birth, remained his favorite residence his entire life. That could very well be George telling us what the place of smoke and salt actually is.

Dany was born there, and she the storm in the night of her birth could very well have carried wisps of smoke from the Dragonmount as well as spray from the sea into the very chamber her mother gave birth to her.

By the way:

The same rationale the Targaryens used to justify Rhaegar's birth at Summerhall as him being born amidst smoke and salt (smoke from the fire, tears for the dead) could also be attributed to Drogo's pyre. Smoke was there aplenty and ash chemically consists of a variety of different salts. Daenerys was amidst both when she climbed on the pyre.

Of course. But I was just pointing out to Rhaenys that not all the characters in the story saw Dragonstone as that place. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

5 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

We must keep in mind though that Aemon never saw Dragonstone as the place of smoke and salt in the prophecy. He viewed it as Summerhall didn't he. He is the one thinking outside the norm of the Dragonstone assumptions which of course has opened up lots more possibilities, and interestingly he is the one who thinks differently in regards to the prince/princess angle.

Actually, Aemon did see Dragonstone as a place of salt and smoke:

The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it.

Daenerys was, after all, born on Dragonstone as well.

But, that doesn't mean Dragonstone is the only place anyone could possibly see as a place of salt and smoke. Rhaegar would have considered Summerhal as it had been on the day of his birth a place of salt and smoke too, for a while. That's where he had been born, and he was the prince that was promised, or so he thought. Aemon was not alone in that.

 

5 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

In the end maybe all the interpretations will have their truths, even Jons with the smoking wounds, the tears and the dead mans stars sigil.

 

To the end bit, I suppose all dead are bleeding in battle, and if the stars are the valiant dead, then aren't they forever doomed to be in the state they were at death, bleeding. I'm just spitballing here mind you. 

'When the stars bleed', the stars are the valiant dead in the sky, forever bleeding as in their last state they were in at time of death. The War of the five Kings came at the end of the longest summer on record. 'Their will come a day after a long summer  when the stars bleed'.

When we think of people appearing as dead in the story, don't they always appear as how they were at time of death? Like Theons dream etc, and im sure there's more instances.

The people who've died might have been bleeding when they died, but we aren't speaking of their corpses, but their spirits. Do spirits bleed? Perhaps, but perhaps not. Rhaegar and the KG certainly weren't bleeding is Jamie's dream about them, for example. Yet all died in battle.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

Davos also has elements of AA, being reborn in salt and smoke after the Blackwater, and I think the red comet was still in the sky at the time. 

I think, ultimately, we will see multiple candidates who will fulfill the AA/PtwP/hero prophecy myth, in one way or the other. It's unlikely for GRRM to make everything fit one character and thus only that character will be the hero - too cliche and not his style.

If I may ask a slightly off-topic question:

Was Ashara Dayne on DS with Elia, as she was her lady-in-waiting? Did she go back there after HH as well?

[Macgregor of the North]

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Actually, Aemon did see Dragonstone as a place of salt and smoke:

The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it.

Daenerys was, after all, born on Dragonstone as well.

But, that doesn't mean Dragonstone is the only place anyone could possibly see as a place of salt and smoke. Rhaegar would have considered Summerhal as it had been on the day of his birth a place of salt and smoke too, for a while. That's where he had been born, and he was the prince that was promised, or so he thought. Aemon was not alone in that.

 

The people who've died might have been bleeding when they died, but we aren't speaking of their corpses, but their spirits. Do spirits bleed? Perhaps, but perhaps not. Rhaegar and the KG certainly weren't bleeding is Jamie's dream about them, for example. Yet all died in battle.

Correct, he later applied Dragonstone as the place of smoke and salt when he changed his mind to Daenerys.

On the bleeding stars thing, it was just a quirky little detail I spotted, not something I'm chasing to be true really.

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Davos also has elements of AA, being reborn in salt and smoke after the Blackwater, and I think the red comet was still in the sky at the time. 

I think, ultimately, we will see multiple candidates who will fulfill the AA/PtwP/hero prophecy myth, in one way or the other. It's unlikely for GRRM to make everything fit one character and thus only that character will be the hero - too cliche and not his style.

If I may ask a slightly off-topic question:

Was Ashara Dayne on DS with Elia, as she was her lady-in-waiting? Did she go back there after HH as well?

The promised prince is not supposed to be reborn. He is just supposed to be born. Azor Ahai is believed to be reborn by the R'hllorians and Melisandre but Rhaegar and the Targaryens never searched for some person that is supposed to be reborn.

My personal guess is that the promised prince/savior thing is a potential that can be realized. When Dany became the Unburnt and the Mother of Dragons she realized that potential and thus 'the savior/Azor Ahai/promised princess was born'.

Just some dude (apparently) cheating death (Tyrion, Davos, Beric, Catelyn, perhaps even Jon Snow) doesn't meet the criteria.

If there is going to be savior trinity (Dany, Jon, Tyrion) then the Jon and Tyrion might eventually go through some sort magical climax like the one Dany went through in AGoT. One wonders whether the Shrouded Lord episode George originally had in ADwD was supposed to be something like that. The way it appears Tyrion and Aegon's gang were supposed to be separated for a time for Tyrion to make his pilgrimage to the Shrouded Lord.

[Macgregor of the North]

19 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Davos also has elements of AA, being reborn in salt and smoke after the Blackwater, and I think the red comet was still in the sky at the time. 

I think, ultimately, we will see multiple candidates who will fulfill the AA/PtwP/hero prophecy myth, in one way or the other. It's unlikely for GRRM to make everything fit one character and thus only that character will be the hero - too cliche and not his style.

If I may ask a slightly off-topic question:

Was Ashara Dayne on DS with Elia, as she was her lady-in-waiting? Did she go back there after HH as well?

I had thought on Davos a bit also. I agree the interpretations will apply to more than person also.

On Ashara, I had assumed that when Elia went to KL with Aegon and Rhaenys, Ashara possibly went her separate ways then. Was Elia summoned by Aerys after Rhaegar was AWOL? Aerys certainly held her hostage when she was at KL anyway, but she would have had to travel there from Dragonstone.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The promised prince is not supposed to be reborn. He is just supposed to be born. Azor Ahai is believed to be reborn by the R'hllorians and Melisandre but Rhaegar and the Targaryens never searched for some person that is supposed to be reborn.

My personal guess is that the promised prince/savior thing is a potential that can be realized. When Dany became the Unburnt and the Mother of Dragons she realized that potential and thus 'the savior/Azor Ahai/promised princess was born'.

Just some dude (apparently) cheating death (Tyrion, Davos, Beric, Catelyn, perhaps even Jon Snow) doesn't meet the criteria.

If there is going to be savior trinity (Dany, Jon, Tyrion) then the Jon and Tyrion might eventually go through some sort magical climax like the one Dany went through in AGoT. One wonders whether the Shrouded Lord episode George originally had in ADwD was supposed to be something like that. The way it appears Tyrion and Aegon's gang were supposed to be separated for a time for Tyrion to make his pilgrimage to the Shrouded Lord.

Well LV, your anti - Jon and pro - Dany bias is shining through 

We do not have the text of either prophecy (AA or PtwP) to tell us whether it meant born or reborn. Second, we have no idea how and where the prophecy even originated, and whether it has been preserved in it's original form or not, because it's thousands of years old. Third, GRRM really does not like making prophecy come through in an obvious way. He has commented on it before, IIRC, in SSMs:

Quote

Q::Surely the plot is very unpredictable despite all the prophecies you give to help us...

[Laughs] Prophecies are, you know, a double edge sword. You have to handle them very carefully; I mean, they can add depth and interest to a book, but you don’t want to be too literal or too easy... In the Wars of the Roses, that you mentioned, there was one Lord who had been prophesied he would die beneath the walls of a certain castle and he was superstitious at that sort of walls, so he never came anyway near that castle. He stayed thousands of leagues away from that particular castle because of the prophecy. However, he was killed in the first battle of St. Paul de Vence and when they found him dead he was outside of an inn whose sign was the picture of that castle! [Laughs] So you know? That’s the way prophecies come true in unexpected ways. The more you try to avoid them, the more you are making them true, and I make a little fun with that.

Q:  So you always want to frustrate our expectations, am I right?

Yes, it was always my intention: to play with the reader’s expectations. Before I was a writer I was a voracious reader and I am still, and I have read many, many books with very predictable plots. As a reader, what I seek is a book that delights and surprises me. I want to not know what is gonna happen. For me, that’s the essence of storytelling and for this reason I want my readers to turn the pages with increasing fever: to know what happens next. There are a lot of expectations, mainly in the fantasy genre, which you have the hero and he is the chosen one, and he is always protected by his destiny. I didn’t want it for my books.

.So we must be careful while drawing obvious, literal interpretations from his (century-old) prophecies. I could see it much more likely that multiple aspects of the hero myth apply to multiple characters, and through the fog of history, the legend gets melded into one perfect hero (which is what I think happened the first time around.) 

There's also a sense, in his story, that different cultures came up with different hero myths to fulfill what they considered the greatest destiny  (the Stallion that Mounts the World for the Dothraki, for example, is said to have conquered everything to the ends of the earth. Benerro is currently using the name of AA to incite slaver revolt in Volantis.) So it's likely that different characters can be heroes to different sets of people. The North may see Bran and Jon as big heroes, South/Essos may think it's Dany, etc.

[Lord Varys]

34 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Well LV, your anti - Jon and pro - Dany bias is shining through 

That's not bias, it is based on the facts. I actually like Jon more as a character but he doesn't really do the cool prophecy-fulfillment stuff. And even if we got now some sort of twisted non-literal waking of dragons from stone who on earth could use that as 'proof' against the Mother of Dragons? In-story nobody would take the metaphorical-weirdo interpretation over the literal interpretation. Especially not where saviors are concerned.

I mean, if Jesus only metaphorically rose from the dead then things would look pretty unimpressive on the Christian front...

34 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

We do not have the text of either prophecy (AA or PtwP) to tell us whether it meant born or reborn.

That is true but it is not the point (I actually want George to finally give us at least one version of this prophecy). There is a prophecy or a cycle of prophecies from the east claiming that some legendary hero from the past if going to be reborn. And there is the specific prophecy mentioning a promised prince and three dragon heads (presumably) and a Song of Ice and Fire that Rhaegar and the other Targaryens (Aerys I who, according to Egg, rode a prophecy that the dragons would return) apparently read.

We have no reason to assume that those prophecies are identical.

In addition, we have the prophecy of the Ghost who clearly stated that the promised prince would be born (nor reborn) from the line of Aerys and Rhaella.

34 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Second, we have no idea how and where the prophecy even originated, and whether it has been preserved in it's original form or not, because it's thousands of years old.

We can infer that the Asshai'i/R'hllorian tradition is, in general, different from the Valyrian-Targaryen tradition because the eastern version would actually precede Valyria and House Targaryen. The idea that some prophecy of a promised prince (from the line of House Targaryen) was actually made back before Valyria even existed doesn't make any sense.

We also know that the version of the prophecy Aemon and Rhaegar read (and which most likely is going to turn out to be the prophecy Aerys I (re-)discovered) was written in High Valyrian because Aemon tells us about the translation error involving the word 'dragons'. This suggests that the prophecy doesn't talk about 'princes' but instead speaks of a dragon, referring to a scion either of some dragonlord family or specifically of House Targaryen. It is easily imaginable that the dragonlords saw themselves as much as dragons as the Targaryens later did.

There might also be multiple versions of that prophecy. Marwyn claims to know the prophecy, too, but we don't know what version. Thinking about that - Aegon V could have discovered other versions of the prophecy when he was looking for dragonlore all across Essos.

34 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Third, GRRM really does not like making prophecy come through in an obvious way. He has commented on it before, IIRC, in SSMs:

.So we must be careful while drawing obvious, literal interpretations from his (century-old) prophecies. I could see it much more likely that multiple aspects of the hero myth apply to multiple characters, and through the fog of history, the legend gets melded into one perfect hero (which is what I think happened the first time around.)

Well, but here it is actually different. George has yet to give us the actual text of the prophecy. It is not that we know the prophecy and try to figure out its meaning. We have seen the events unfold (the waking of the dragons from stone, the bleeding star in the sky, etc.) and now have to make the prophecy fit to them.

It is certainly possible that Jon (and Tyrion) might end up sharing in Dany's great prophesied destiny. But the longer it takes for them to actually go through some magical climax the less likely it gets that something like that is going to happen.

Historically it seems to me that all those eastern stories most likely are all bogus. At least insofar as any real fight against the Others is concerned. I think that was done in Westeros by people either living there or going there to fight the evil but the stories circulating in Yi Ti and the other eastern lands suggests that just people who were in charge there during the Long Night were credited with ending the bad times when they finally ended despite the fact that they had nothing to do with it.

That doesn't mean that the prophecy of the return of some hero might be wrong, but I think the stories of Azor Ahai are pretty much irrelevant because I don't believe the stories of the Last Hero traveled east to return there in the form of the Azor Ahai story.

But then, perhaps even the Last Hero thing isn't the full story. The best element of the historical legends contains the Rhoynish story were only an alliance of all the smaller gods could drive back the cold. The heroes in Westeros have to form a similar alliance.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

2 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Davos also has elements of AA, being reborn in salt and smoke after the Blackwater, and I think the red comet was still in the sky at the time. 

The characters do not mention when they last see the red comet, but I think chronologically, Jon is the last one to see it. Considering that the comet appears in the sky at the start of the year, that the Blackwater takes place when there are only a few more months left, and that the comet has not been mentioned anymore for some time by then, I don't think it was visible anymore.

2 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I think, ultimately, we will see multiple candidates who will fulfill the AA/PtwP/hero prophecy myth, in one way or the other. It's unlikely for GRRM to make everything fit one character and thus only that character will be the hero - too cliche and not his style.

Agreed.

2 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

If I may ask a slightly off-topic question:

Was Ashara Dayne on DS with Elia, as she was her lady-in-waiting? Did she go back there after HH as well?

We don't really know. From Barristan, we learn that 

His choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia’s companions … though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab.

I've theorized that Elia accompanied (or followed) Rhaegar to KL when he went to present Rhaenys, meaning that they were all at the court of KL when Aegon was conceived (explaining why the comet in 281 AC was seen above KL the night of Aegon's conception, instead of above Dragonstone, where Rhaegar and Elia lived) as well as placing Elia on the mainland to be attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood, leading to the campaign of the KG.

I'd think that Ashara would have been with Elia when she came to KL, and would thus likely have accompanied Elia to Dragonstone, traveling to KL only when Elia did (and accompanying her to Harrenhall).

But whether she went back to Dragonstone after Harrenhall... There has been a lot of speculation. Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhall, that we know. But is that when she became pregnant? The app places the birth of Ashara's child as having been "during the war", which makes it unlikely that Ashara became pregnant at the tourney (unless a full nine months passed between the tourney and the start of the war; in that case, Ashara would have given birth at the start of the war - something Barristan's "soon after" regarding Ashara's suicide implies is not the case). So, it would seem that Ashara became pregnant only later, which would mean she might have been at Dragonstone for quite some time after Harrenhall. 

Though, of course, we know barely anything about Ashara's movements, so we can't really say anything with certainty.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

5 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

But whether she went back to Dragonstone after Harrenhall... There has been a lot of speculation. Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhall, that we know. But is that when she became pregnant? The app places the birth of Ashara's child as having been "during the war", which makes it unlikely that Ashara became pregnant at the tourney (unless a full nine months passed between the tourney and the start of the war; in that case, Ashara would have given birth at the start of the war - something Barristan's "soon after" regarding Ashara's suicide implies is not the case). So, it would seem that Ashara became pregnant only later, which would mean she might have been at Dragonstone for quite some time after Harrenhall. 

I don't have the app, so that is new and very interesting information to me. I always assumed that "dishonouring" of Ashara was her getting pregnant at HH (consensually). Of course conservative old Barry would call it "dishonour". But if she didn't get pregnant at HH, that kind of rules out any of the Stark guys getting with her, right? Which contradicts Barristan's ADWD musings....

Barry also says that she threw herself "soon after" from the tower "for the child, and perhaps the man who had dishonored her". I thought his "soon after" in this case was just him repeating gossip he had heard about Ashara's suicide over Ned, or some such. 

[Little Scribe of Naath]

@Lord Varys

I was thinking that the PtwP prophecy may be a bastardized version of the AA prophecy, due to the many similarities between the two. TWOIAF indicated that the ancient Asshai'i/GeotD people were the ones who first tamed dragons, and they were the ones who taught the Valyrians to do so (or they might have been the proto-Valyrians itself). So it's quite likely the original AA prophecy out of Asshai also had elements of the hero being a dragonlord/dragon-tamer.

The similarities in the whole "born in salt and smoke"/"bleeding star" have already been noted. 

There's that story about AA fighting a monster:

Quote

 looked at that book Maester Aemon left me. The Jade Compendium. The pages that told of Azor Ahai. Lightbringer was his sword. Tempered with his wife’s blood if Votar can be believed. Thereafter Lightbringer was never cold to the touch, but warm as Nissa Nissa had been warm. In battle the blade burned fiery hot. Once Azor Ahai fought a monster. When he thrust the sword through the belly of the beast, its blood began to boil. Smoke and steam poured from its mouth, its eyes melted and dribbled down its cheeks, and its body burst into flame.”

This sounds very similar to how a dragon kills, indicating that a dragon was indeed the flaming sword in the AA prophecy:

Quote

 A lance of swirling dark flame took Kraznys full in the face. His eyes melted and ran down his cheeks, and the oil in his hair and beard burst so fiercely into fire that for an instant the slaver wore a burning crown twice as tall as his head.

I'm inclined to believe the prophecy originated in Asshai, and then spread westward to the Valyrians, either because some Asshai'i themselves migrated to Valyria, or maybe because the Valyrians learnt most of their magic and lore from the Asshai'i.

Of course, this would indicate that the AA/PtwP prophecy may not be referring to the guy fighting the Others at all, because the Others most certainly wouldn't have spread to Essos. I think it refers to some ancient evil which destroyed the East, (most probably whatever caused Asshai/GeotD to become what it is now. The Bloodstone Emperor is a possibility.) Over thousands of years, the original story of this hero may have been lost/forgotten, and instead people adapted the tale to explain the story of how the Long Night was vanquished instead. 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

8 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I don't have the app, so that is new and very interesting information to me. I always assumed that "dishonouring" of Ashara was her getting pregnant at HH (consensually). Of course conservative old Barry would call it "dishonour". But if she didn't get pregnant at HH, that kind of rules out any of the Stark guys getting with her, right? Which contradicts Barristan's ADWD musings....

Barry also says that she threw herself "soon after" from the tower "for the child, and perhaps the man who had dishonored her". I thought his "soon after" in this case was just him repeating gossip he had heard about Ashara's suicide over Ned, or some such. 

The "dishonour" might have been Ashara losing her virginity. I can see Barristan calling it such, as noblewomen are supposed to remain a virgin until they marry for the first time.

Couldn't Ashara have gotten pregnant by a Stark after Harrenhal? She wasn't "nailed to the floor", as GRRM puts it, during the war, and she wouldn't have been before, either. And if Ashara became pregnant at Harrenhal, her child would have been born before the start of the war. Yet she killed herself after the war... However, according to Barristan, Ashara killed herself "soon after" the stillbirth of her child. Would "shortly" still count if a year of more passed in between? So perhaps, Ashara being dishonoured was not Ashara becomming pregnant..

[Little Scribe of Naath]

6 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

The "dishonour" might have been Ashara losing her virginity. I can see Barristan calling it such, as noblewomen are supposed to remain a virgin until they marry for the first time.

Couldn't Ashara have gotten pregnant by a Stark after Harrenhal? She wasn't "nailed to the floor", as GRRM puts it, during the war, and she wouldn't have been before, either. And if Ashara became pregnant at Harrenhal, her child would have been born before the start of the war. Yet she killed herself after the war... However, according to Barristan, Ashara killed herself "soon after" the stillbirth of her child. Would "shortly" still count if a year of more passed in between? So perhaps, Ashara being dishonoured was not Ashara becomming pregnant..

But would Barristan have known that Ashara lost her virginity? Somehow I doubt Ashara would have made that public...

One explanation is that Barristan's musings in ADWD are him simply having believed the gossip over Ned and Ashara. The general story about them is that they fell in love at HH, then she got pregnant and had his kid which he took away from her at the end of the war, causing her to kill herself, right?

But then that doesn't fit with the "Stillborn daughter" part.

The explanation that it was Brandon who got Ashara pregnant is also suspect...because Brandon was long dead when Ashara killed herself. And we have some idea of Brandon's whereabouts before he died (in Riverrun, mostly) so I don't think Ashara would have gone there to meet him. That leaves her meeting Ned and getting pregnant sometime maybe just before the war started...but totally OOC for Ned.

Maybe this whole pregnancy stuff is itself a giant red herring and Ashara was never pregnant at all.

[Lord Varys]

10 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

The explanation that it was Brandon who got Ashara pregnant is also suspect...because Brandon was long dead when Ashara killed herself. And we have some idea of Brandon's whereabouts before he died (in Riverrun, mostly) so I don't think Ashara would have gone there to meet him. That leaves her meeting Ned and getting pregnant sometime maybe just before the war started...but totally OOC for Ned.

Selmy certainly could have learned of Ned being behind Ashara's pregnancy later on after the fact. But I'm pretty sure unless Ashara and her lover were caught in the act at Harrenhal that this wasn't exactly communicated to the general public.

If something was going on with Ned then there might actually have been an informal marriage agreement/betrothal which then was scrapped when Ned had to marry Catelyn to ensure Hoster's support during the Rebellion. Depending when exactly Harrenhal was Ashara might still have been pregnant when Rickard and Brandon were killed.

10 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Maybe this whole pregnancy stuff is itself a giant red herring and Ashara was never pregnant at all.

I don't buy that.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If something was going on with Ned then there might actually have been an informal marriage agreement/betrothal which then was scrapped when Ned had to marry Catelyn to ensure Hoster's support during the Rebellion. Depending when exactly Harrenhal was Ashara might still have been pregnant when Rickard and Brandon were killed.

That is possible. As we see with Robb, Ned would have immediately married the woman he "dishonoured". But then it is very curious how Ned never thinks of Ashara, not even once in his POVs, even towards the end when he is imprisoned and is recalling all his ghosts.

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't buy that.

Yeah, I don't buy it completely either, it is just one possibility. The other option is that the "Stark" business is a red herring and the father of Ashara's kid was someone else itself, and people think it was a Stark based on the gossip.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

That is possible. As we see with Robb, Ned would have immediately married the woman he "dishonoured".

I don't think so. Robb did this because of Jon. He didn't want to father a bastard. But Ned and his siblings grew up in a different time. The vibe I get from Harrenhal and the pre-Rebellion years is that this generation grew up as much as the 'knights of the summer' as Renly's followers.

Even Ned might have been willing to follow his heart. Especially if he intended to marry the woman he had fallen in love with.

3 minutes ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

But then it is very curious how Ned never thinks of Ashara, not even once in his POVs, even towards the end when he is imprisoned and is recalling all his ghosts.

Sure, but that would have meant that the truth about Jon would have been revealed back then. Or at least the possibility that Ashara was the mother would have been debunked. George didn't want to do that.

Selmy might not see the dishonoring in Ned and Ashara having sex but that he later broke their betrothal/didn't marry her.

And we should also keep in mind that it is very unlikely that Ned could have left Starfall alive if he and Ashara weren't close in some way. If they hadn't had any connection then Lord Dayne could just have had them killed when they showed up there. The man wouldn't have been happy about the death of his brother.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

But would Barristan have known that Ashara lost her virginity? Somehow I doubt Ashara would have made that public...

Perhaps she was caught in the act during the tourney?

1 hour ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

One explanation is that Barristan's musings in ADWD are him simply having believed the gossip over Ned and Ashara. The general story about them is that they fell in love at HH, then she got pregnant and had his kid which he took away from her at the end of the war, causing her to kill herself, right?

But then that doesn't fit with the "Stillborn daughter" part.

Indeed, so that seems to rule out that it was simply only a repeat of gossip. And, considering Barristan was in love with Ashara, he would most likely have been interested to learn what was going on with her, how she was doing. 

 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Selmy might not see the dishonoring in Ned and Ashara having sex but that he later broke their betrothal/didn't marry her.

He called it "dishonoured her at Harrenhal", though. That limits it to the tourney itself.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

And we should also keep in mind that it is very unlikely that Ned could have left Starfall alive if he and Ashara weren't close in some way. If they hadn't had any connection then Lord Dayne could just have had them killed when they showed up there. The man wouldn't have been happy about the death of his brother.

Not necessarily. It might depend on how much his family was involved in what all happened at the ToJ. Also, Arthur had been loyal to the dynasty which had lost the war, and a new King sat on the throne. Killing Ned would gain them nothing but trouble.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, but that would have meant that the truth about Jon would have been revealed back then. Or at least the possibility that Ashara was the mother would have been debunked.

No, on the contrary, it would have added more fuel to the red herring that is Ned + Ashara for Jon's parents. The fact that Ned doesn't think about her at all is what is the big red flag about N + A. Instead, the memory of Lyanna haunts him, which is the big clue for R +  L = J.

If something like that had happened to Ned, where Ashara had gotten pregnant with his baby and then killed herself over the whole tragedy, you can bet it would have come back to haunt him at that time. 

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And we should also keep in mind that it is very unlikely that Ned could have left Starfall alive if he and Ashara weren't close in some way. If they hadn't had any connection then Lord Dayne could just have had them killed when they showed up there. The man wouldn't have been happy about the death of his brother

Not likely. The man returned Dawn. There's no reason to senselessly kill Ned.

However, I agree that there are hints in the text that N +  A could have been close. I'm leaning towards more of a friendship though. 

We have to also factor in Barristan's comment "Girls always choose fire over mud" somewhere. Ned was most certainly a "mud-like" personality. Though this could be irony from the author's part if Ashara ended up choosing Ned or mud-man Howland (Meera as the "stillborn" daughter?)

1 hour ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Perhaps she was caught in the act during the tourney?

I think it's more likely that everyone saw sparks fly between Ashara and her baby-daddy at HH, and later on saw the guy enter in her quarters at night/leave in the morning, something.