Why did Criston Cole support Aegon II?

[Lord Varys]

18 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Yeah, that scene is going to be tough alright. Talk about a Meereen’s knot! Who's POV will we get? Jaime's? Brienne's? Catelyn's? Brandon's? 

I thought Ned's.

My money would be on Jaime's. I want it to be his. But the whole Prologue thing makes things difficult. If Cat shows up there then she should have met with Brienne-Jaime earlier and then we would most likely only get some flashback meeting chapter. But that would be stupid. Perhaps this means Cat won't be physically with whatever men show up in the Prologue or Jaime was taken into custody by a troupe of outlaws which did not include Cat and the main force.

[Lost Melnibonean]

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I thought Ned's.

My money would be on Jaime's. I want it to be his. But the whole Prologue thing makes things difficult. If Cat shows up there then she should have met with Brienne-Jaime earlier and then we would most likely only get some flashback meeting chapter. But that would be stupid. Perhaps this means Cat won't be physically with whatever men show up in the Prologue or Jaime was taken into custody by a troupe of outlaws which did not include Cat and the main force.

My best guess is Brienne. The George often writes from the POV of an observer who doesn't always understand what's going on. Of course, he often writes from the perspective of the player too, like the scene with Jaime, so, he would be the obvious choice. The prologue could make sense, since he's suggested the prologue might take place in the Riverlands. I don't think it would be Catelyn, since he hasn't written from the perspective of an undead person, although, Melisandre could be undead, I suppose. Bran is in a position to know anything at anytime so it could come from his perspective. 

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

My best guess is Brienne. The George often writes from the POV of an observer who doesn't always understand what's going on. Of course, he often writes from the perspective of the player too, like the scene with Jaime, so, he would be the obvious choice. The prologue could make sense, since he's suggested the prologue might take place in the Riverlands. I don't think it would be Catelyn, since he hasn't written from the perspective of an undead person, although, Melisandre could be undead, I suppose. Bran is in a position to know anything at anytime so it could come from his perspective. 

The point is not that the Prologue is from Cat's POV. That's not going to happen. The point is that Cat might show up in that Prologue.

Considering we already got Brienne's interaction with Cat I doubt we'll get her watching Jaime interacting with her.

[Jaak]

On 20.9.2016 at 6:26 PM, Lord Varys said:

 However, the account that Arryk Cargyll caught Rhaenyra and Daemon abed together is most likely true. It would give us the perfect explanation why this man ended up joining the Greens and even went as far as to agreeing to murder Rhaenyra and/or her children and was then willing to kill his own twin brother in the process. He might have had serious problems with sluts and adulterers for some reason.

Still odd. Arryk may have been the man who actually say Rhaenyra in flagranti, but Erryk would have had the oral accounts of his twin brother. Why didn´t Arryk persuade his brother to join Greens as well, trusting his words?

[Lost Melnibonean]

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The point is not that the Prologue is from Cat's POV. That's not going to happen. The point is that Cat might show up in that Prologue.

Considering we already got Brienne's interaction with Cat I doubt we'll get her watching Jaime interacting with her.

I wasn't suggesting that the prologue would come from Catelyn's POV. 

[SeanF]

3 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Yes, I kinda didn't see Lady Stoneheart as surviving very long though tbh. But admit fully that this was mostly due to my dislike initially of the resurrection. 

Having had a lot of time since my first read to consider the reasons and implications of her resurrection however I may have altered my view point somewhat. 

 

Yes I agree we are in for a big uprising in the RL's. 

I always just felt Jaime's time in Kl was done, but I do think you have presented a very plausible reason for him to return. 

Riverrun and its neighbourhood must be a powder keg by now.  The castle is full of servants who were loyal to the Tullys, and Tom Sevenstrings has infiltrated it.

The surrounding countryside is full of disbanded Tully soldiers, the BWB, and gentry and peasants who are loyal to the Tullys.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I wasn't suggesting that the prologue would come from Catelyn's POV. 

Oh, okay, you were somewhat imprecise when speculating about the Prologue. That would be from a new POV who is about to die, most likely, unless George suddenly breaks his pattern there.

6 hours ago, Jaak said:

Still odd. Arryk may have been the man who actually say Rhaenyra in flagranti, but Erryk would have had the oral accounts of his twin brother. Why didn´t Arryk persuade his brother to join Greens as well, trusting his words?

Sure, but Arryk clearly would have had different notions. Perhaps he was lusting after Rhaenyra, too? Half the Realm was, it seems, and many of the men she rejected ended up on the Green side, the Lannister twins among them.

Arryk might have told his brother what he saw, of course, but the crucial thing in the split seems to have been that Erryk was with Rhaenyra when the Greens staged their coup. He could either stay true to his vows and his late king's last will (which he would have known) or he could have tried to defect to the Greens (like Steffon Darklyn defected to the Blacks). He chose to stay true to his vows. And one assumes that he quickly realized what Arryk was up to when he met him on Dragonstone.

9 hours ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Yes, I kinda didn't see Lady Stoneheart as surviving very long though tbh. But admit fully that this was mostly due to my dislike initially of the resurrection. 

Having had a lot of time since my first read to consider the reasons and implications of her resurrection however I may have altered my view point somewhat. 

I never thought that Catelyn came back to die again quickly. That makes little sense. There is a lot of potential in this plot line beginning with personal confrontations as well as metaphysical and religious repercussions following from a major political figure coming back from the dead. Once this is known and can no longer be denied people should work themselves into a frenzy all over the place. Especially now that the Faith has real power the effects could be huge.

Quote

Yes I agree we are in for a big uprising in the RL's. 

I always just felt Jaime's time in Kl was done, but I do think you have presented a very plausible reason for him to return. 

It must not be KL directly. Although that's also a possibility. Jaime is still the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard and a member of the Small Council. And the Lannister faction in KL is leaderless. He could go there and hand Aegon the city on a golden platter.

But I'm more inclined to think that he might be going to Storm's End to meet with Aegon there. If Jaime Lannister marches with Aegon against the Tyrells (or against KL later on) the effect could not be more devastating. It would be what Tywin feared Selmy could do if he marched with either Renly or Stannis - only a hundred times worse because he is Cersei's brother and - as he most likely will claim - the father of her children.

Such a move could also sort of settle the Tommen-Myrcella question. Jaime would try to save the lives of his children by revealing the truth - which would cause them to lose their royal status but might allow them to live. Connington wants to end the usurper's line but if Robert left no trueborn children there is no need from Aegon's point of view to kill them, especially if they are publicly declared bastards born of incest.

That doesn't mean they won't die, of course, but possibly not of Aegon's hands or of people in his service.

If Cersei escapes KL she might actually take Myrcella with her in such a scenario. She could still help her forge some marriage alliance in addition to her own hand. But if she wanted to ally with Euron (as I think she will) Tommen would just be a hindrance so it is more likely that she will either not have when she leaves or he might be already dead.

But then, Myrcella also might become Aegon's first wife in attempt to unite the claims only to suffer a Jaehaera-like fate once Aegon is securely in power.

6 hours ago, SeanF said:

Riverrun and its neighbourhood must be a powder keg by now.  The castle is full of servants who were loyal to the Tullys, and Tom Sevenstrings has infiltrated it.

The surrounding countryside is full of disbanded Tully soldiers, the BWB, and gentry and peasants who are loyal to the Tullys.

It has been mentioned that Jaime might be forced to play a role in the retaking of Riverrun and the demise of Genna and Emmon, but I don't think his involvement there is necessary. Catelyn and her people should be able to retake that castle on their own.

The Dance sort of gives us a broken image what might be happening in the Riverlands now. They had losses during that war, too, and were invaded by a Lannister army and the Crownlands levies under Aemond and Cole yet they prevailed and butchered every single one of them. Granted, they had help from some Northmen - but then, the Tully men only joined the Black Riverlords late in war suggesting that the Lannister and Crownland forces (originally) only targeted those regions/houses in the Riverlands who had declared for Rhaenyra and joined Daemon at Harrenhal.

During the War of the Five Kings all the Riverlords stood with the Tullys suggesting that all the Rivermen could now pay back the invaders in kind like they did during the Dance. Something like the Butcher's Ball or the Fishfeed is very likely to happen to any larger force of Westermen in the Riverlands. Considering that there no longer are large forces it is more likely that we'll see very ugly slaughters of garrisons and men at Riverrun, the Twins, Darry, and other places.

[SeanF]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

 

 

It has been mentioned that Jaime might be forced to play a role in the retaking of Riverrun and the demise of Genna and Emmon, but I don't think his involvement there is necessary. Catelyn and her people should be able to retake that castle on their own.

The Dance sort of gives us a broken image what might be happening in the Riverlands now. They had losses during that war, too, and were invaded by a Lannister army and the Crownlands levies under Aemond and Cole yet they prevailed and butchered every single one of them. Granted, they had help from some Northmen - but then, the Tully men only joined the Black Riverlords late in war suggesting that the Lannister and Crownland forces (originally) only targeted those regions/houses in the Riverlands who had declared for Rhaenyra and joined Daemon at Harrenhal.

During the War of the Five Kings all the Riverlords stood with the Tullys suggesting that all the Rivermen could now pay back the invaders in kind like they did during the Dance. Something like the Butcher's Ball or the Fishfeed is very likely to happen to any larger force of Westermen in the Riverlands. Considering that there no longer are large forces it is more likely that we'll see very ugly slaughters of garrisons and men at Riverrun, the Twins, Darry, and other places.

I quite like Lady Genna and Gatehouse Ami.  I'd like to hope they escape.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I quite like Lady Genna and Gatehouse Ami.  I'd like to hope they escape.

Those are the calamities of war. If George wants to raise the stakes and not get boring we'll see Catelyn and Edmure showing no mercy whatsoever against Genna and Emmon. Keep in mind how Jaime himself prepared for this by threatening not only Edmure himself but also his wife and unborn child. He is not going to react kindly to that. If he gets a chance to get back at the Lannisters he will. And there won't be any mercy.

Strongboar seems to be a rash man. I don't think he'll be able to protect Ami and his mother. Not to mention that things will go to hell anyway as soon as the hostages as freed. The Crown is not going to help them, not with Mace Tyrell in charge and Aegon knocking at the door.

[SeanF]

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Those are the calamities of war. If George wants to raise the stakes and not get boring we'll see Catelyn and Edmure showing no mercy whatsoever against Genna and Emmon. Keep in mind how Jaime himself prepared for this by threatening not only Edmure himself but also his wife and unborn child. He is not going to react kindly to that. If he gets a chance to get back at the Lannisters he will. And there won't be any mercy.

Strongboar seems to be a rash man. I don't think he'll be able to protect Ami and his mother. Not to mention that things will go to hell anyway as soon as the hostages as freed. The Crown is not going to help them, not with Mace Tyrell in charge and Aegon knocking at the door.

It'll be interesting to see what happens to Roslyn Frey.  Will she be spared, as Edmure's wife, or hanged as a traitor, after giving birth?  Edmure would want to spare her, surely, but Catelyn and the rest probably hate her.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

On a thread which was started to discuss House Dary and it's future not long ago, but which despite my attempts to discuss the topic simply descended into speculation as to if and when TWOW will come out. I noted that Ami may well survive. House Darry have traditionally been Targaryen loyalists, and with Aegon's foray into the Stormlands going thus far rather well, Ami and her mother would do well to declare for him and offer Ami's hand to a GC member. Perhaps the son/grandson of some previously displaced Westerosi noble. This way House Darry survives, and she is freed of Lancel and his useless inactive member.  Marriya Dary is a smart woman, who holds no loyalty to her Frey in laws. Does not lament her late husbands death and would I feel swap sides at the mere wiff of opportunity. Her daughter holds a strategic castle and good lands, and Aegon needs these things. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

I quite like Lady Genna and Gatehouse Ami.  I'd like to hope they escape.

Yes. I was most disappointed that Gatehouse AmI was omitted from HBOGOT. I had been looking forward to viewing her adventures on the small screen with great anticipation. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Those are the calamities of war. If George wants to raise the stakes and not get boring we'll see Catelyn and Edmure showing no mercy whatsoever against Genna and Emmon. Keep in mind how Jaime himself prepared for this by threatening not only Edmure himself but also his wife and unborn child. He is not going to react kindly to that. If he gets a chance to get back at the Lannisters he will. And there won't be any mercy.

Strongboar seems to be a rash man. I don't think he'll be able to protect Ami and his mother. Not to mention that things will go to hell anyway as soon as the hostages as freed. The Crown is not going to help them, not with Mace Tyrell in charge and Aegon knocking at the door.

Ami's got great friends, Strongboar, Hardstone... I am hoping there is a reason Hardstone is a Plumm. 

[SeanF]

8 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

On a thread which was started to discuss House Dary and it's future not long ago, but which despite my attempts to discuss the topic simply descended into speculation as to if and when TWOW will come out. I noted that Ami may well survive. House Darry have traditionally been Targaryen loyalists, and with Aegon's foray into the Stormlands going thus far rather well, Ami and her mother would do well to declare for him and offer Ami's hand to a GC member. Perhaps the son/grandson of some previously displaced Westerosi noble. This way House Darry survives, and she is freed of Lancel and his useless inactive member.  Marriya Dary is a smart woman, who holds no loyalty to her Frey in laws. Does not lament her late husbands death and would I feel swap sides at the mere wiff of opportunity. Her daughter holds a strategic castle and good lands, and Aegon needs these things. 

I think that's undoubtedly correct.  It all depends whether she and her mother can avoid the vengeance of Catelyn and the BWB in the interim.

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I think that's undoubtedly correct.  It all depends whether she and her mother can avoid the vengeance of Catelyn and the BWB in the interim.

Hardstone might have something to say about it. 

[Valens]

Woah, woah, stop now! How did we get to Catelyn Stark and Brienne all of the sudden?! Stay on the topic please. We are not yet done with it.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

4 hours ago, SeanF said:

I think that's undoubtedly correct.  It all depends whether she and her mother can avoid the vengeance of Catelyn and the BWB in the interim.

Indeed. Fingers crossed. I have a great fondness of Amerei, it takes a certain kind of guts to brave out a threesome, pre marriage, with two low borns in this universe. Good on yer lass!  

[Lost Melnibonean]

21 minutes ago, The Weirwoods Eyes said:

Indeed. Fingers crossed. I have a great fondness of Amerei, it takes a certain kind of guts to brave out a threesome, pre marriage, with two low borns in this universe. Good on yer lass!  

Wait, wasn't it three grooms in the stables? C'mon, now, don't be shortchanging Gatehouse Ami! 

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Wait, wasn't it three grooms in the stables? C'mon, now, don't be shortchanging Gatehouse Ami! 

3! god the lucky lass. No, i shan't shortchange her, credit where credit is due.  #lifegoals

[Lion of the West]

On 2016-09-22 at 0:21 PM, Lord Varys said:

The way things stand that is not so unlikely, actually. Again, Jon Connington has no reason to love Aerys II. Nobody has reason to do so. Dany, Viserys, and even Rhaegar might be sort of obliged to avenge their father in Aegon's position, but Aegon is merely Aerys' grandson, and he might know already that his royal grandfather was not exactly nice to himself, his mother, or his uncle Doran and granduncle Lewyn.

They might not love Aerys but regardless he was the Targaryen king and unless they want to pardon everyone for everything, breaking the Kingsguard oath to kill your king is a bad move as it sets a horrible predecent and rather frankly shows the Targaryens to be push-overs. Not that I mind that, but I don't think that JonCon is do self-destructive.

 

On 2016-09-22 at 0:21 PM, Lord Varys said:

Connington's issues are mainly with the usurper and his line, not so much with Jaime. If George wants Aegon's star to rise very high very fast then showing mercy publicly to Jaime Lannister could be a grand gesture of clemency, one that would make the peace his new reign is supposed to bring actually tangible. If he executed him or intended to avenge his royal grandfather on him he might only antagonize the West and help Cersei's cause over there (assuming she and/or her children flee the city in time).

Not to mention that Jaime in team Aegon would put him into a very great position for conflict with both Tyrion and Cersei. In fact, unlike @Protagoras I don't see Jaime killing or actively destroying Cersei unless he has no other choice. Turning against her and their children would be a fine way to set the stage for a Cersei who is no longer willing to show mercy against anyone, including Jaime himself.

In terms of publicity giving Jaime clemancy is about the same as giving Michael Madison clemency. Its not a sign of great virtue but rather something that will piss people off that the Jamie gets off the hook, again, for breaking his oaths to Aerys. And it rather tells something of which much interest Aegon has in his own House, which would be pretty little. Also recall that JonCon thinks he lost because he wasn't hard enought at Stony Sept. This isn't a guy who will go around pardoning his enemies left and right.

Also while the West likes Jamie, the rest don't and killed Jamie would curry favor with all those who outside of the West.

Naturally I hope Jamie makes it to the end but I don't think that its in the interest of House Targaryen that he does so.

On 2016-09-22 at 0:21 PM, Lord Varys said:

@Lost Melnibonean's idea of Jaime going to the Wall doesn't make much sense to me. Not sure there will be still a Night's Watch in existence as a legal entity when Aegon VI finally is crowned. Not to mention that Aegon has little reason to send anybody to the Wall in a time when the pretender Stannis Baratheon actually holds the Wall.

But this doesn't mean that Jaime cannot play an important role in the eventual fight against the Others. They can very well (and should) march down South to wreak havoc there. But then, the one-handed cripple won't be of much use there as a swordsman.

It is very likely though that Brienne (whose rescue was the whole point of Jaime's weirwood dream, presumably because she is important for future events) is going to become an important champion and fighter for the Dawn in the coming struggle against the Others. She is the one with the Valyrian steel sword (and quite a bit of Targaryen blood, if Yandel is right).

I'd be very happy if Brienne, one of my favorite characters, gets a larger part in the story.