Why did Criston Cole support Aegon II?

[Lord Varys]

@LionoftheWest

Just because you think it is bad form for Aegon to show mercy to Jaime doesn't mean it truly is. It is up to the king to punish criminals and traitors, not the public opinion. If Aegon forgave Jaime Lannister publicly then all the other Targaryen loyalists had to shut up and suffer that because it us up to Aegon as the king and Aerys' grandson to avenge his murder, not some vassal of his.

And the idea is not that Aegon is going to do that for nothing. He will do it in exchange for Jaime destroying the claims of Cersei's children. That could be an offer Aegon would be willing to take if he is smart.

You seem to forget that Jaime is only to blame for Aerys. Nothing else. He had no hand in Elia's and Rhaenys' murder, nor was he involved in the death of Rhaegar in battle.

Aegon acknowledging that his royal grandfather was mad, sucked as a king, and had to be removed would also be a welcome gesture.

[Protagoras]

11 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

I'd be very happy if Brienne, one of my favorite characters, gets a larger part in the story.

I bet that Brienne dies in WoW. Willing to take it?

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Protagoras said:

I bet that Brienne dies in WoW. Willing to take it?

Definitely. Brienne certainly is among the characters who will make it too the bitter end.

[Protagoras]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Definitely. Brienne certainly is among the characters who will make it too the bitter end.

Sure? I mean...really? And to the bitter end too? Not only WoW but the entire series? No way!

Because from a doylist perspective that doesn´t make much sense. If she will go on as a PoW, what will her story-arc be? Her storyline really has nowhere to go. It is already over with the reunion between her, Cat and Jaime (what I consider the endgame due to the previous history between the characters, a "to go forward you must go back" moment). She has already been through Westeros searching and interacting with the smallfolk in an almost force-fed quest from GRRM which was a pretty pointless solo adventure resultwise and some semi-romantic interactions with Jaime. Why a second try? In don´t GRRM will give her something new to do. 

Therefore, I speculate that Brienne will die, together with a permanent ending for BWB and Lady Stoneheart. Not directly, of course but I see Jaime as the sole survivor from a clusterfuck (he is needed for his end-game with Cersei, possible Valonqar and his "redemption" arc), including war in the riverlands and liberation of Riverrun that will take at least half of WoW to resolve.

All these characters having in common that they don´t help the plot any more. They have served their purpose. Thats when GRRM kills you, as seen with Ned, Robb and Quentyn. None of those characters died randomly but when they hade nothing more to give, when their arc was over. In addition, several POW in the same place means that GRRM can afford to lose one since he can still give a first point perspective on events happening there. And he did say he needed to cut down his PoW characters if I don´t misremember myself, and in GRRMs case I take that literary, as in the characters will be cut down. 

[Lord Varys]

@Protagoras

I think you have a completely wrong view of Brienne's role in this series. She was not introduced as a POV in AFfC to serve only as our eye on the effects of war. That was her purpose in that book but if she was not one of the core characters who would be built up for the final endgame George wouldn't have given her so many chapters or such a prominence in that book. AFfC is effectively more or less another 'first book', introducing many new characters who are going to become important later on.

You have to go back to ASoS to get a real glimpse of her importance. It is all about Jaime's weirwood dream in ASoS. Brienne is important, not so much Jaime. It is Brienne Jaime has to save, Brienne who now has a Valyrian steel sword and, if we can trust Yandel, a Targaryen ancestor.

Her magical blood should be able to ignite her sword much more brightly than Beric's blood could ignite a mundane sword. The darkness is coming and some people have to keep in at bay. The dragons alone are not enough. Not to mention that they aren't even there yet.

The idea that Jaime and Brienne being at the same place right now doesn't many any of them has to die. Just as Theon and Asha don't have to die. George could go back and forth between POVs who are at the same place as he has done before or he could separate the POVs again.

I don't know if Brienne remains in the Riverlands but she could also leave the Brotherhood and join Aegon (Tarth has recently been conquered by the Golden Company). Or she could be doing something else. The idea that she is done because it appears she no longer has a purpose because her fool's errand is over now only makes sense if you assume she was only introduced as a character for that purpose.

I also have difficulty to see an end for the Brotherhood and Catelyn, by the way. They are on the rise right now, not in decline. They have the means and the plans to destroy their enemies and they should be able to pull it off. Catelyn is not going to go down in a whimpering like Beric did. What would be the point of that? Why bring Catelyn Stark back when she is not going to show herself to the world and interact with her children once again in some manner? Or with Littlefinger?

The time for the Brotherhood might be over soon, though, because with the Blackfish and the other Riverlords whose hands have now been untied thanks to Jaime's stupidity this whole thing could become an official movement.

[Protagoras]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

@Protagoras

I think you have a completely wrong view of Brienne's role in this series. She was not introduced as a POV in AFfC to serve only as our eye on the effects of war. That was her purpose in that book but if she was not one of the core characters who would be built up for the final endgame George wouldn't have given her so many chapters or such a prominence in that book. AFfC is effectively more or less another 'first book', introducing many new characters who are going to become important later on.

You have to go back to ASoS to get a real glimpse of her importance. It is all about Jaime's weirwood dream in ASoS. Brienne is important, not so much Jaime. It is Brienne Jaime has to save, Brienne who now has a Valyrian steel sword and, if we can trust Yandel, a Targaryen ancestor.

Her magical blood should be able to ignite her sword much more brightly than Beric's blood could ignite a mundane sword. The darkness is coming and some people have to keep in at bay. The dragons alone are not enough. Not to mention that they aren't even there yet.

The idea that Jaime and Brienne being at the same place right now doesn't many any of them has to die. Just as Theon and Asha don't have to die. George could go back and forth between POVs who are at the same place as he has done before or he could separate the POVs again.

I don't know if Brienne remains in the Riverlands but she could also leave the Brotherhood and join Aegon (Tarth has recently been conquered by the Golden Company). Or she could be doing something else. The idea that she is done because it appears she no longer has a purpose because her fool's errand is over now only makes sense if you assume she was only introduced as a character for that purpose.

I also have difficulty to see an end for the Brotherhood and Catelyn, by the way. They are on the rise right now, not in decline. They have the means and the plans to destroy their enemies and they should be able to pull it off. Catelyn is not going to go down in a whimpering like Beric did. What would be the point of that? Why bring Catelyn Stark back when she is not going to show herself to the world and interact with her children once again in some manner? Or with Littlefinger?

The time for the Brotherhood might be over soon, though, because with the Blackfish and the other Riverlords whose hands have now been untied thanks to Jaime's stupidity this whole thing could become an official movement.

Yup, this is a bet I would take.

There is no reason to assume she was introduced in the series for any other purpose and I am not convinced by the dream. While the Brotherhood might be a movement for a short time, they feel like a balloon that will burst. They will suffer in the bloodbath that will be Riverlands, play their role and then be gone. I also don´t think the purpose with Catelyn/LSH was to interact with her children but to give us a familiar face, slightly weaken the impact of Red wedding as well as the reunion moment with Cat, Jaime and Brienne and the issues of oaths and failure lying between them. This is day of reckoning, not of opportunities.  

[Lion of the West]

On 2016-09-24 at 11:30 AM, Lord Varys said:

@LionoftheWest

Just because you think it is bad form for Aegon to show mercy to Jaime doesn't mean it truly is. It is up to the king to punish criminals and traitors, not the public opinion. If Aegon forgave Jaime Lannister publicly then all the other Targaryen loyalists had to shut up and suffer that because it us up to Aegon as the king and Aerys' grandson to avenge his murder, not some vassal of his.

And the idea is not that Aegon is going to do that for nothing. He will do it in exchange for Jaime destroying the claims of Cersei's children. That could be an offer Aegon would be willing to take if he is smart.

You seem to forget that Jaime is only to blame for Aerys. Nothing else. He had no hand in Elia's and Rhaenys' murder, nor was he involved in the death of Rhaegar in battle.

Aegon acknowledging that his royal grandfather was mad, sucked as a king, and had to be removed would also be a welcome gesture.

It isn't? Giving clemancy to widely hated criminals is seldom seen as a positive thing and Jamie committed his crime against Aegon's House, against the king who'se legitimacy Aegon bases his own on. For it Aerys is not a legitimate king, then Rhaegar is neither and then Aegon has no legitimacy. Its is of the outmost importance for House Targaryen to maintain the links of continuation back to Aegon I, and Aerys II part of that chain.

And no, Targaryens supporters will not have to shut up about it. They can keep talk about it all day long for Westeros is not North Korea, it isn't Nazi Germany and its not Stalin Soviet. Aegon may absolutely be the one to claim what vengeace he wants to take. But at the end of it, Aegon's actions will reflect back on him. When Aenys showed weakness to people who defied his reign, people lost respect for him despite him being king. If Aegon shows clemancy against top profiles like the Kingslayer odds are that people will say the Dragon has lost its teeth. It don't need to be a bloodbath and probably shouldn't be, but Aegon needs to show that he means business and that rebelling against his House is not an ok way to deal with things.

Also you would think that if breaking your Kingsguard oaths and kill the king you are supposed to protect does not merit punishment, then what does?

Aegon acknowleding that his grandfather had to be removed says that "I'm pretty ok with you guys toppling Targaryen kings you don't like:" and if it was ok, then it was also per necessity ok to crown new kings and raise arms against kings. All victorious Targaryens who were in a position to do it provided harsh treatment for rebels and that's for a very real reason.

17 hours ago, Protagoras said:

I bet that Brienne dies in WoW. Willing to take it?

No, because I'm not a gambler.

[Lord Varys]

5 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

It isn't? Giving clemancy to widely hated criminals is seldom seen as a positive thing and Jamie committed his crime against Aegon's House, against the king who'se legitimacy Aegon bases his own on. For it Aerys is not a legitimate king, then Rhaegar is neither and then Aegon has no legitimacy. Its is of the outmost importance for House Targaryen to maintain the links of continuation back to Aegon I, and Aerys II part of that chain.

That's nonsense. King Robert also pardoned people like Jaime, Pycelle, Varys, Selmy - who were all his sworn enemies at one point. Jaehaerys I and Aegon III apparently also did not put down the people once following the traitors and usurpers Maegor the Cruel and Aegon II (nor did Aegon II put down all the people once serving Rhaenyra).

Aerys II is long dead and Aegon has to prove his mettle and take the throne. He has a claim but to push it he doesn't have to consider his grandfather a great guy or go along with everything he did. Daeron II also had severe issues with everything his father did.

5 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

And no, Targaryens supporters will not have to shut up about it. They can keep talk about it all day long for Westeros is not North Korea, it isn't Nazi Germany and its not Stalin Soviet. Aegon may absolutely be the one to claim what vengeace he wants to take. But at the end of it, Aegon's actions will reflect back on him.

The point is that they would shut about it. If Aerys' grandson can forgive his murderer so can they. A king leads by example. And I'm not sure who specifically hates Jaime right now. The Dornishmen, Reachers, Stormlanders, Vale men, Westermen have no reason to particularly hate Jaime. The Riverlanders and Northmen have some reasons, to be sure, because of Bran and the Red Wedding. But if Jaime is to survive his meeting with Catelyn this thing will be resolved anyway.

5 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

When Aenys showed weakness to people who defied his reign, people lost respect for him despite him being king. If Aegon shows clemancy against top profiles like the Kingslayer odds are that people will say the Dragon has lost its teeth. It don't need to be a bloodbath and probably shouldn't be, but Aegon needs to show that he means business and that rebelling against his House is not an ok way to deal with things.

Again, we are talking about a quid pro quo. Aegon isn't king yet, and the Lannisters and Tyrells still have the power to destroy him. If Jaime makes all that go away and gives him a chance to include the West into his regime he'll take that offer.

5 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

Also you would think that if breaking your Kingsguard oaths and kill the king you are supposed to protect does not merit punishment, then what does?

Robert already forgave Jaime for that. Aegon can do so, too.

5 minutes ago, LionoftheWest said:

Aegon acknowleding that his grandfather had to be removed says that "I'm pretty ok with you guys toppling Targaryen kings you don't like:" and if it was ok, then it was also per necessity ok to crown new kings and raise arms against kings. All victorious Targaryens who were in a position to do it provided harsh treatment for rebels and that's for a very real reason.

No, it is Aegon acknowledging that his grandfather was a bad king and insane and had to be put down. This doesn't mean he approves of the manner of his demise but any king bent on willing the hearts of his people would be well advised to grant them the right to not follow a mad king.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Protagoras said:

Yup, this is a bet I would take.

There is no reason to assume she was introduced in the series for any other purpose and I am not convinced by the dream. While the Brotherhood might be a movement for a short time, they feel like a balloon that will burst. They will suffer in the bloodbath that will be Riverlands, play their role and then be gone. I also don´t think the purpose with Catelyn/LSH was to interact with her children but to give us a familiar face, slightly weaken the impact of Red wedding as well as the reunion moment with Cat, Jaime and Brienne and the issues of oaths and failure lying between them. This is day of reckoning, not of opportunities.  

Then I can't help you.

However, a lot of your arguments could be used for the Stark characters in the wake of the Red Wedding. 'There time is over now. They were only introduced to be brutally butchered' etc. Nobody does that because the POVs were introduced in the first book.

Thus I see little reason to discard other POVs who were later introduced. There are those among them who might not last until the end but I don't think Davos, Brienne, Jaime, and even Cersei are among them. They play way too prominent roles (now) than to suddenly die an ignominious death.

What kind of a bloodbath are you expecting for the Brotherhood by the way? There are no hints for such a thing. Nobody likes the Lannisters in the Riverlands and everybody hates the Freys. With the hostages leaving the Twins all the Riverlords will rise against the Freys, not just some outlaws.

There is also no hint that Catelyn is going to die soon. She has just returned from death and we don't even know if she can be killed by conventional means. After all, unlike Beric she is pretty much a zombie.

[Lion of the West]

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That's nonsense. King Robert also pardoned people like Jaime, Pycelle, Varys, Selmy - who were all his sworn enemies at one point. Jaehaerys I and Aegon III apparently also did not put down the people once following the traitors and usurpers Maegor the Cruel and Aegon II (nor did Aegon II put down all the people once serving Rhaenyra).

Aerys II is long dead and Aegon has to prove his mettle and take the throne. He has a claim but to push it he doesn't have to consider his grandfather a great guy or go along with everything he did. Daeron II also had severe issues with everything his father did.

The point is that they would shut about it. If Aerys' grandson can forgive his murderer so can they. A king leads by example. And I'm not sure who specifically hates Jaime right now. The Dornishmen, Reachers, Stormlanders, Vale men, Westermen have no reason to particularly hate Jaime. The Riverlanders and Northmen have some reasons, to be sure, because of Bran and the Red Wedding. But if Jaime is to survive his meeting with Catelyn this thing will be resolved anyway.

Again, we are talking about a quid pro quo. Aegon isn't king yet, and the Lannisters and Tyrells still have the power to destroy him. If Jaime makes all that go away and gives him a chance to include the West into his regime he'll take that offer.

Robert already forgave Jaime for that. Aegon can do so, too.

No, it is Aegon acknowledging that his grandfather was a bad king and insane and had to be put down. This doesn't mean he approves of the manner of his demise but any king bent on willing the hearts of his people would be well advised to grant them the right to not follow a mad king.

All of them you list beyond Varys are difrferent than Jamie. Pycelle is a maester and bound to serve the king regardless of who sits the throne and Selmy is the epitome of "honorable enemy" with enormous prestige across the realm. And I didn't say that Aegon VI should or would massacre everyone. I said that a top profile with a reputation as horrible as Jamie would  be a mistake to not punish.

It is true that Daeron II didn't get along with his father but even so its clear that he didn't clear people from crimes they had done against the king. House Toyne was to my knowledge not granted some kind of compensation for the punishment meted out by Aegon IV after the assassination attempt on him. I think that a better example would be that Aegon V felt compelled to punish Bloodraven for murdering Aenys Blackfyre despite it being done before Aegon V ascended.

They can absolutely forgive but I think that many of them will not do so regardless of what noble example the king sets. Many people are petty minded or base their own feel of self-worth by looking down on  others. Also I think that you underestimate the bad press Jamie has. Already before Bran the war Eddard seems to have despised Jamie despite Jamie never having done any harm to the Starks. My understanding of it is that there are many people across Westeros who hate Jamie's guts because he broke the oath to Aerys II. Everything else is just icing one that cake.

I agree that we don't yet know how things will develop. And I naturally root for a Lannister or Tyrell victory.

Jamie's didn't kill Robert's grandfather and a ruling king of House Baratheon.

Now I totally agree that a mad king shouldn't be suffered, but if House Targaryen should survive its important that hammer in the issue that if the king is bad, its up to follow another Targaryen to replace the bad king, and not put another House on the throne. Otherwise things can easily be very stormy for the Targaryens in the generations to come.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, LionoftheWest said:

All of them you list beyond Varys are difrferent than Jamie. Pycelle is a maester and bound to serve the king regardless of who sits the throne and Selmy is the epitome of "honorable enemy" with enormous prestige across the realm. And I didn't say that Aegon VI should or would massacre everyone. I said that a top profile with a reputation as horrible as Jamie would  be a mistake to not punish.

Still, they could be seen as 'traitors' and 'enemies' who deserved to die, too. Robert Baratheon could have very easily decided that he would never worked with any person who ever sat on the council of Aerys II. And he actually should have done that.

1 hour ago, LionoftheWest said:

It is true that Daeron II didn't get along with his father but even so its clear that he didn't clear people from crimes they had done against the king. House Toyne was to my knowledge not granted some kind of compensation for the punishment meted out by Aegon IV after the assassination attempt on him.

What House Toyne? Do you actually think House Toyne survived the attempt on the life of the king which also led to the death of the Dragonknight? The existence of Simon Toyne and Myles Toyne later on does not mean there still was a noble house Toyne at this point. Just as the existence of Masha Heddle and her kin doesn't mean there is still noble Heddles out there.

The idea that Daeron II would look favorable on the kin of the people who murdered his uncle and tried to murder his father makes little sense. Not to mention that Aegon IV sort of was in the right executing Terrence Toyne. He was breaking his Kingsguard vows, after all. He shouldn't have been so cruel but an execution wasn't extraordinary there.

1 hour ago, LionoftheWest said:

I think that a better example would be that Aegon V felt compelled to punish Bloodraven for murdering Aenys Blackfyre despite it being done before Aegon V ascended.

That was an immediate punishment in completely different context. Jaime's crime is old and people are actually accustomed to him not being punished. Besides, Aerys I - who is not considered to be the strongest of kings - did pardon his uncle Aegor in the wake of the Third Blackfyre Rebellion against the will of both Bloodraven and Aerion.

1 hour ago, LionoftheWest said:

They can absolutely forgive but I think that many of them will not do so regardless of what noble example the king sets. Many people are petty minded or base their own feel of self-worth by looking down on  others. Also I think that you underestimate the bad press Jamie has. Already before Bran the war Eddard seems to have despised Jamie despite Jamie never having done any harm to the Starks. My understanding of it is that there are many people across Westeros who hate Jamie's guts because he broke the oath to Aerys II. Everything else is just icing one that cake.

There are some of those, yes, men like Mathis Rowan. But men like those won't chastise the king if he decides to pardon Jaime. Even less so if the deal with him helps to save the lives of their men and prevent another battle/war. The idea that the majority of the lords likely to proclaim for Aegon wants a new devastating civil war is about zero if you ask me.

In addition, there are no people out there who have personal reasons to hate Jaime.

1 hour ago, LionoftheWest said:

Jamie's didn't kill Robert's grandfather and a ruling king of House Baratheon.

So what? Robert was the king. He should not allow a Kingsguard to live after he has successfully murdered a king. That is just stupid. But Robert has set a precedent there. And if Jaime makes amends for his treason and actually helps to crown the new Targaryen king then this is a deal that could be made.

Dany would never do it, of course, but there are no Usurper's Dogs running around in Aegon's mind and conversation as far as we know. He might have a rather pragmatic approach to things. 

1 hour ago, LionoftheWest said:

Now I totally agree that a mad king shouldn't be suffered, but if House Targaryen should survive its important that hammer in the issue that if the king is bad, its up to follow another Targaryen to replace the bad king, and not put another House on the throne. Otherwise things can easily be very stormy for the Targaryens in the generations to come.

That is another point entirely. Jaime just slew Aerys II. He did not put another king on the throne. Other people did that. And Jaime had a very good reason to do what he did. Imagine what's going to happen if Varys tells Aegon about the wildfire plot? Then Aegon will understand that Jaime actually saved him by murdering his royal grandfather and his alchemist pets because had he not done some little Aegon would have been engulfed by the flames, too.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Still, they could be seen as 'traitors' and 'enemies' who deserved to die, too. Robert Baratheon could have very easily decided that he would never worked with any person who ever sat on the council of Aerys II. And he actually should have done that.

What House Toyne? Do you actually think House Toyne survived the attempt on the life of the king which also led to the death of the Dragonknight? The existence of Simon Toyne and Myles Toyne later on does not mean there still was a noble house Toyne at this point. Just as the existence of Masha Heddle and her kin doesn't mean there is still noble Heddles out there.

The idea that Daeron II would look favorable on the kin of the people who murdered his uncle and tried to murder his father makes little sense. Not to mention that Aegon IV sort of was in the right executing Terrence Toyne. He was breaking his Kingsguard vows, after all. He shouldn't have been so cruel but an execution wasn't extraordinary there.

That was an immediate punishment in completely different context. Jaime's crime is old and people are actually accustomed to him not being punished. Besides, Aerys I - who is not considered to be the strongest of kings - did pardon his uncle Aegor in the wake of the Third Blackfyre Rebellion against the will of both Bloodraven and Aerion.

There are some of those, yes, men like Mathis Rowan. But men like those won't chastise the king if he decides to pardon Jaime. Even less so if the deal with him helps to save the lives of their men and prevent another battle/war. The idea that the majority of the lords likely to proclaim for Aegon wants a new devastating civil war is about zero if you ask me.

In addition, there are no people out there who have personal reasons to hate Jaime.

So what? Robert was the king. He should not allow a Kingsguard to live after he has successfully murdered a king. That is just stupid. But Robert has set a precedent there. And if Jaime makes amends for his treason and actually helps to crown the new Targaryen king then this is a deal that could be made.

Dany would never do it, of course, but there are no Usurper's Dogs running around in Aegon's mind and conversation as far as we know. He might have a rather pragmatic approach to things. 

That is another point entirely. Jaime just slew Aerys II. He did not put another king on the throne. Other people did that. And Jaime had a very good reason to do what he did. Imagine what's going to happen if Varys tells Aegon about the wildfire plot? Then Aegon will understand that Jaime actually saved him by murdering his royal grandfather and his alchemist pets because had he not done some little Aegon would have been engulfed by the flames, too.

Assuming that Ageon takes Kings Landing, with the aid of the Dornish, I'm expecting a bloodbath on a par with Sulla's Rome, with Jon Connington, Nymeria, and Tyene leading death squads to hunt down anyone associated with the old regime.

To be honest, I don't think that Jaime's future looks good, whoever wins.  Dany would surely have him put to death in some truly hideous manner, if she won.

[Lord Varys]

51 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Assuming that Ageon takes Kings Landing, with the aid of the Dornish, I'm expecting a bloodbath on a par with Sulla's Rome, with Jon Connington, Nymeria, and Tyene leading death squads to hunt down anyone associated with the old regime.

And you are basing that one what exactly?

We don't even know yet whether Aegon will have to take the city by force. If the Golden Company defeats the Tyrell host marching against them the Kingslanders and sparrows might very well welcome Aegon with open gates. Depending how quickly things will unravel this might even happen before the Dornish armies have formally joined Aegon.

And even if not, the only people who have reason to fear should be Cersei and her children. Aside from them no one important connected to the old Baratheon is even still alive or even there. Or do you think they will butcher some rich merchants etc. once they enter the city?

If Prince Aegon decides to sack the city the Conqueror has founded he should better kill himself right then and there because he will be finished after such an act.

There might be some changes in the way the city is organized. But then - there are hints that there might be a strong pro-Targaryen basis in the city still, waking to be activated or manipulated into action.

51 minutes ago, SeanF said:

To be honest, I don't think that Jaime's future looks good, whoever wins.  Dany would surely have him put to death in some truly hideous manner, if she won.

Even that depends on the role Jaime is going to play during the War for the Dawn should he live long enough to see. Dany is not Stannis. Were Jaime to save her life during the fight against the Others she most likely would pardon him.

The idea that the people who have wanted to kill others for a long time will get the chance to do it isn't very likely in this series. Sansa and Robb never had a chance to get back at Joffrey, Viserys had no chance to kill either Robert or Jaime, Doran and Oberyn Martell failed to kill Tywin etc.

[SeanF]

12 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And you are basing that one what exactly?

We don't even know yet whether Aegon will have to take the city by force. If the Golden Company defeats the Tyrell host marching against them the Kingslanders and sparrows might very well welcome Aegon with open gates. Depending how quickly things will unravel this might even happen before the Dornish armies have formally joined Aegon.

And even if not, the only people who have reason to fear should be Cersei and her children. Aside from them no one important connected to the old Baratheon is even still alive or even there. Or do you think they will butcher some rich merchants etc. once they enter the city?

If Prince Aegon decides to sack the city the Conqueror has founded he should better kill himself right then and there because he will be finished after such an act.

There might be some changes in the way the city is organized. But then - there are hints that there might be a strong pro-Targaryen basis in the city still, waking to be activated or manipulated into action.

 

I don't anticipate a sack.  As you say, there's good reason to believe the city is pro-Targaryen.  I just think that Jon Connington, Tyene, and Nymeria dream of wreaking revenge on their enemies, and would have the means to do so.  I would expect most of their victims to be relatively small fry, eg lesser nobles and merchants who'd supported the Baratheons, Tyrells, and Lannisters. I'm sure Cersei and her children would be killed, if they didn't flee first.

[Protagoras]

13 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What kind of a bloodbath are you expecting for the Brotherhood by the way? There are no hints for such a thing. Nobody likes the Lannisters in the Riverlands and everybody hates the Freys. With the hostages leaving the Twins all the Riverlords will rise against the Freys, not just some outlaws.

And those Riverlords will be met by Westerlands and the Frey, who most likely will get their shit together and fight like hell. You have Nymerias wolf pack, many "broken men", rests of Brave companions and in general a war-torn region. Freys have 500 something (maybe more) men at Seaguard, 1500 in their main army and Daven has something like 2-3000 Westermen I think. 

THATS why there will be a blood bath. Those Freys won´t go down easily and if things looks stacked against them, well thats when you should be worried. GRRM won´t make this easy. 

As it comes to the hostages, I am not sure they will survive. Jaime did double that escort with Edmure, something that Tom Sevenstring should be unaware of. The attack on Forley Prester will be a hard nut to crack and I see potential for a extremely bloody and costly affair ending with the Westerlings killed and both forces in severe disarray. As for the Frey hostages - I wonder if they can take those alive. Its noth that Freys don´t know what the attackers are after. 

So, what am I expecting? Well, basically an anahilation of all strong forces in the region currently. Westerlands, BWB, Freys, Broken men/brave companions/freebooters, Riverlords - all of it (That is, not every single soldier but if any lord a year afterwards can raise 1000 men, he will be seen as extremely powerful). In addition, the region will try to stay away from wars in the duture due to war weariness.

Riverlands won´t have much support to offer even if they wanted too. 

[Lord Varys]

2 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I don't anticipate a sack.  As you say, there's good reason to believe the city is pro-Targaryen.  I just think that Jon Connington, Tyene, and Nymeria dream of wreaking revenge on their enemies, and would have the means to do so.  I would expect most of their victims to be relatively small fry, eg lesser nobles and merchants who'd supported the Baratheons, Tyrells, and Lannisters. I'm sure Cersei and her children would be killed, if they didn't flee first.

That sounds way too petty for my taste. There are no such people mentioned nor does it seem likely that they dream of such things. Connington explicitly wants to end the line of the Usurper. If he wanted to slaughter Baratheon loyalists he could (and should) have begun in the Stormlands. But he doesn't do anything of that sort.

And the Sand Snakes never were in the capital before. They have no reason to dislike people there.

Even if there were such people  - and technically they should exist - they are not the enemy. Not even the Tyrells are if they bent the knee in time.

2 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

And those Riverlords will be met by Westerlands and the Frey, who most likely will get their shit together and fight like hell. You have Nymerias wolf pack, many "broken men", rests of Brave companions and in general a war-torn region. Freys have 500 something (maybe more) men at Seaguard, 1500 in their main army and Daven has something like 2-3000 Westermen I think. 

THATS why there will be a blood bath. Those Freys won´t go down easily and if things looks stacked against them, well thats when you should be worried. GRRM won´t make this easy.

He might and actually seems to be making it easy. Those Freys die like flies since the Red Wedding.

You are thinking in terms of a direct attack and a pitched battle. I think those sneak attacks will continue on a larger scale with the Freys being powerless to do something about it and (at first) still not understanding what's going on.

But even if there were open battles - the forces of the Riverlords combined (minus the Freys) should still outnumber whatever the Lannisters have left in the Riverlands. If the Riverlords choose the grounds of the battles they should all be butchered.

2 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

As it comes to the hostages, I am not sure they will survive. Jaime did double that escort with Edmure, something that Tom Sevenstring should be unaware of. The attack on Forley Prester will be a hard nut to crack and I see potential for a extremely bloody and costly affair ending with the Westerlings killed and both forces in severe disarray. As for the Frey hostages - I wonder if they can take those alive. Its noth that Freys don´t know what the attackers are after.

It does not matter whether the hostages live or die. Once they are either freed or dead the Riverlords can move against the Freys. And they will.

We have to wait and see what happens to Prester's forces but thinking a little bit about Jaime's impeding meeting with Catelyn one actually wonders whether it will be the outlaws or rather a professional force under of some Riverlords/Tully men under the command of Brynden Tully who will ambush the Westermen escorting Edmure and Jeyne.

Edmure knew that Jaime intended to send him to Casterly Rock as a prisoner so he might have actually told his uncle about that and they might have made a plan to how to free Edmure on the road.

It could still get ugly, of course, but even if it does it might not really affect the core of the rebels if the Brotherhood isn't even involved in that thing.

2 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

So, what am I expecting? Well, basically an anahilation of all strong forces in the region currently. Westerlands, BWB, Freys, Broken men/brave companions/freebooters, Riverlords - all of it (That is, not every single soldier but if any lord a year afterwards can raise 1000 men, he will be seen as extremely powerful). In addition, the region will try to stay away from wars in the duture due to war weariness.

I'd agree on the outcome more or less. The people there are in no shape to fight another war. Yet they seem to have the strength left to kill the remaining Lannisters and Freys. After that they won't be willing to continue the war.

2 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Riverlands won´t have much support to offer even if they wanted too. 

That was never the point. The point was that Aegon would be well-advised to support the Riverlords in their revenge effort. He could even send some men of his own to help them hunt down some Freys. Although there might be still some regions in the Riverlands which were largely untouched by war.

[Lion of the West]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Still, they could be seen as 'traitors' and 'enemies' who deserved to die, too. Robert Baratheon could have very easily decided that he would never worked with any person who ever sat on the council of Aerys II. And he actually should have done that.

I agree that Robert should have cleared up the top ranks of the goverment but then again his clemancy did work with many others as when he ruled there was no attempt to restore the Targaryens, there were no flood of exiles to create a court-in-exile for the Targaryens and when Robert died not one, not a single lord, raised his banner to restore the Targaryens. It was all one member or another of House Baratheon as far as anyone could see, and to that some separatists in the far west and north.

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What House Toyne? Do you actually think House Toyne survived the attempt on the life of the king which also led to the death of the Dragonknight? The existence of Simon Toyne and Myles Toyne later on does not mean there still was a noble house Toyne at this point. Just as the existence of Masha Heddle and her kin doesn't mean there is still noble Heddles out there.

 If killing off bad kings wasn't an issue Daeron should certainly have provided with returning the lands and keeps lost to the Toynes and raised them back to nobility. After all the king they tried to assassinate was a real scumbag. And that's kind of what I wanted to say. Daeron II had the sense to make the point that killing off the king because you don't like him isn't acceptable. Aegon VI would be a fool to make a point that it was acceptable for a Kingsguard to take down a king if that king strayed.

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The idea that Daeron II would look favorable on the kin of the people who murdered his uncle and tried to murder his father makes little sense. Not to mention that Aegon IV sort of was in the right executing Terrence Toyne. He was breaking his Kingsguard vows, after all. He shouldn't have been so cruel but an execution wasn't extraordinary there.

 I agree and see above for more comments.

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That was an immediate punishment in completely different context. Jaime's crime is old and people are actually accustomed to him not being punished. Besides, Aerys I - who is not considered to be the strongest of kings - did pardon his uncle Aegor in the wake of the Third Blackfyre Rebellion against the will of both Bloodraven and Aerion.

True that Jamie's crimes are old now, but that's because the Targaryens have been out of power, and Robert should have stripped the white from Jamie on his ascension. Also giving Aegor pardon was a grevious mistake. If Bittersteel had become a head shorter then the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion would likely never have happened and the Blackfyre dynasty would, in my humble opinion, have imploded and its actually in doubt if something similar to the War of Ninepenny Kings would have happened.

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There are some of those, yes, men like Mathis Rowan. But men like those won't chastise the king if he decides to pardon Jaime. Even less so if the deal with him helps to save the lives of their men and prevent another battle/war. The idea that the majority of the lords likely to proclaim for Aegon wants a new devastating civil war is about zero if you ask me.

No one would tell Aegon to his face now, but between themselves the talk would go on and that can turn men's hearts in many ways and they could get eyes on what they could get away with. Also I don't doubt that the men would have wanted to avoid a civil war, but I can also see that many of them would like to see some kind of punishment meeted out to the rebels. What's the point of staying loyal if you are guaranteed a pardon with no consequences if you rebel?

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So what? Robert was the king. He should not allow a Kingsguard to live after he has successfully murdered a king. That is just stupid. But Robert has set a precedent there. And if Jaime makes amends for his treason and actually helps to crown the new Targaryen king then this is a deal that could be made.

A precedent is not an iron clad law to follow unless it got a Great Council, a few dozen generations or something of the like to back it up with. Otherwise both Maegor and Aegon IV would have turned the Targaryen reign into something much less attractive.

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Dany would never do it, of course, but there are no Usurper's Dogs running around in Aegon's mind and conversation as far as we know. He might have a rather pragmatic approach to things. 

He might be more collected than Viserys, and probably is, but JonCon is hell bent on winning this and he thinks being soft lost his the last time around, so don't count on him being all over handing out pardons and forgivness to old enemies or advicing Aegon to do so.

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That is another point entirely. Jaime just slew Aerys II. He did not put another king on the throne. Other people did that. And Jaime had a very good reason to do what he did. Imagine what's going to happen if Varys tells Aegon about the wildfire plot? Then Aegon will understand that Jaime actually saved him by murdering his royal grandfather and his alchemist pets because had he not done some little Aegon would have been engulfed by the flames, too.

Yet Jamie did nothing to hinder putting another king on the throne and happily spent over a decade fighting for that very Baratheon king, so in that way Jamie might not have made the stroke, but one can argue that he was happily going along with the Baratheons and was killing his king rather than protecting Rhaegar's children from Gregor and Lorch. Is that hard on Jamie? Yes, but I don't see why Targaryen supporters would look at him with an eyes to understanding.

But do note that personally I think that Jamie was overtaken by events and I entirely buy that he didn't really think his father would have Rhaegar's wife and offspring killed like that. Captured for certain, but not killed. We tend to think the best of people we love.

[Lost Melnibonean]

The storyteller first presents Criston Cole to us in The Soiled Knight, Feast 13...

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"The first Viserys intended his daughter Rhaenyra to follow him, do you deny it? But as the king lay dying the Lord Commander of his Kingsguard decided that it should be otherwise."

Ser Criston Cole. Criston the Kingmaker had set brother against sister and pided the Kingsguard against itself, bringing on the terrible war the singers named the Dance of the Dragons. Some claimed he acted from ambition, for Prince Aegon was more tractable than his willful older sister. Others allowed him nobler motives, and argued that he was defending ancient Andal custom. A few whispered that Ser Criston had been Princess Rhaenyra's lover before he took the white and wanted vengeance on the woman who had spurned him. " The Kingmaker wrought grave harm," Ser Arys said, "and gravely did he pay for it, but . . ."

 

Outside of the novellas, Criston Cole was mentioned only once more...

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“A lot of brave men have worn the white cloak. Most have been forgotten."

"Most deserve to be forgotten. The heroes will always be remembered. The best."

"The best and the worst." So one of us is like to live in song. "And a few who were a bit of both. Like him." He tapped the page he had been reading.

"Who?" Ser Loras craned his head around to see. "Ten black pellets on a scarlet field. I do not know those arms."

"They belonged to Criston Cole, who served the first Viserys and the second Aegon." Jaime closed the White Book. "They called him Kingmaker."

 

Jaime II, Feast 16

From these two brief passages, we learn that Criston acted against the wish of Viserys I to crown his daughter, backing his son, Aegon, instead. Common explanations are that Criston believed he could manipulate Aegon, and/or that he was defending the ancient Andal custom of male-preference primogeniture. But the third explanation feels more correct, given the way it is presented, doesn’t it? In the Princess and the Queen, we see Criston speaks against Rhaenyra along these lines...

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Ser Criston Cole spoke up. Should the princess reign, he reminded them, Jacaerys Velaryon would rule after her. “Seven save this realm if we seat a bastard on the Iron Throne.” He spoke of Rhaenyra’s wanton ways and the infamy of her husband. “They will turn the Red Keep into a brothel. No man’s daughter will be safe, nor any man’s wife. Even the boys … we know what Laenor was.”

And this underlying jealousy of Rhaenyra seems to be a bit of a running theme for Criston...

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Only when Ser Criston convinced him that the princess must surely execute him and his brothers should she don the crown did Aegon waver. “Whilst any trueborn Targaryen yet lives, no Strong can ever hope to sit the Iron Throne,” Cole said. “Rhaenyra has no choice but to take your heads if she wishes her bastards to rule after her.” It was this, and only this, that persuaded Aegon to accept the crown that the small council was offering him.

And in The Rogue Prince, we see that there was substance to the rumors spread by Mushroom...

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Just how long these lessons continued Mushroom does not say, but unlike Septon Eustace, he insists that Princess Rhaenyra remained a maiden, for she wished to preserve her innocence as a gift for her beloved. But when at last she approached her “white knight,” using all she had learned, Ser Criston was horrified and spurned her. The whole tale soon came out, in no small part thanks to Mushroom himself. King Viserys at first refused to believe a word of it until Prince Daemon himself confirmed that the tale was true. “Give the girl to me to wife,” he purportedly told his brother. “Who else would take her now?” Instead King Viserys sent him into exile, never to return to the Seven Kingdoms on pain of death. (Lord Strong, the King’s Hand, argued that the prince should be put to death immediately as a traitor, but Septon Eustace reminded His Grace that no man is as accursed as the kinslayer.)

Curiously, Arys tells us that Criston’s relationship with Rhaenyra began before he was named to the Kingsguard, but we see in the Dance of the Dragons  novellas that is not true. This inconsistency is probably the result of The George writing the actual history a bit differently than he originally intended, and can be explained away by the unreliable narrator.

In The Princess and the Queen, we see that Lord Commander Criston was the man who placed the crown on Aegon’s head at his coronation, but it could also be said that Criston was the one who acted, the muscle that made Aegon king, whether he ended up crowning himself or not.

And we cannot help but note that Criston’s sigil is black on red, which just happen to be Blackfyre colors. Coincidence? I think not.

After leaving Harrenhal,  but before returning to rescue Brienne, Jaime has a dream. We know this dream is inspired by Bloodraven since Jaime rests his head on a weirwood stump. Tywin, Cersei, and Joffrey appear. This predates the Red Wedding so Tywin and Joffrey are still alive at this point, but Tywin and Joffrey will soon die, suffering deaths for which Jaime must later feel some blame, since he releases Tyrion, who kills Tywin, and he is Lord Commander of Joffrey's Kingsguard but unable to protect him. This reading suggests that Cersei will die too, and that Jaime must later feel some blame for her death. Of course, Jaime is the leading candidate to be Cersei's valonqar.

Then Bloodraven, who sided with the red dragon against the brother he loved, sends Rhaegar and Jaime's fallen Kingsguard brothers to hammer home Jaime's crime when he betrayed Aerys. Notwithstanding Jaime's defense that Aerys planned to burn King’s Landing, Rhaegar reminds Jaime that he left his wife and children under Jaime's protection. Bloodraven seems to be preparing Jaime to raise up Jon, Rhaegar's heir, as king. And recall this from Jaime’s search of the secret passages of the Red Keep...

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They found only darkness, dust, and rats. And dragons, lurking down below. He remembered the sullen orange glow of the coals in the iron dragon's mouth. The brazier warmed a chamber at the bottom of a shaft where half a dozen tunnels met. On the floor he'd found a scuffed mosaic of the three-headed dragon of House Targaryen done in tiles of black and red. I know you, Kingslayer, the beast seemed to be saying. I have been here all the time, waiting for you to come to me. And it seemed to Jaime that he knew that voice, the iron tones that had once belonged to Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone.

Jaime I, Feast 8

Jaime identifies with the Warrior...

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Why would Cersei need the Warrior? She has me.

Jaime II, Feast 16

And the Warrior protects children...

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The Warrior stands before the foe,

protecting us where e'er we go.

With sword and shield and spear and bow,

he guards the little children.

 

Samwell II, Storm 33

Jaime doesn't believe that Rhaegar has any living children...

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"... So long as men remember the wrongs done to their forebears, no peace will ever last. So we go on century after century, with us hating the Brackens and them hating us. My father says there will never be an end to it."

"There could be."

"How, my lord? The old wounds never heal, my father says."

"My father had a saying too. Never wound a foe when you can kill him. Dead men don't claim vengeance."

"Their sons do," said Hoster, apologetically.

"Not if you kill the sons as well. Ask the Casterlys about that if you doubt me. Ask Lord and Lady Tarbeck, or the Reynes of Castamere. Ask the Prince of Dragonstone."

For an instant, the deep red clouds that crowned the western hills reminded him of Rhaegar's children, all wrapped up in crimson cloaks.

 

Jaime I, Dance

So, the guilt is there, but he might find a way to make amends. Here is a telling quote from Barristan on his own path to redemption after taking Robert's pardon...

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"That was when I knew that to redeem myself I must find the true king, and serve him loyally, with all the strength that still remained me."

Daenerys II, Dance 11

And here's Jaime telling Lancel what he thought of Robert...

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"Robert was no true king."

Jaime IV, Feast 30

And here he is, dressed in garb that would have been common among House Cole...

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When he descended for the feast that night, Jaime Lannister wore a doublet of red velvet slashed with cloth-of-gold, and a golden chain studded with black diamonds. He had strapped on his golden hand as well, polished to a fine bright sheen. This was no fit place to wear his whites. His duty awaited him at Riverrun; a darker need had brought him here.

Jaime IV, Feast 30

Black on red, like The Blackfyre. Assuming Jaime is Cersei's valonqar, this quote would tie in nicely with Jaime unwittingly supporting the black dragon...

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Black had never been a happy color on her. With her fair skin, it made her look half a corpse herself.

Cersei II, Feast 7

[Lord Varys]

@LionoftheWest

The problem essentially boils down to the question whether Aegon wants to execute or punish the man who saves his life by preventing the burning of KL. And I don't see him doing that should this fact ever come to light - which is not unlikely considering that Brienne knows about it already.

A precedent is just the name attached to a thing that has once happened. There is a precedent for me going to a barber and there is a precedent for Kingsguard murdering a king and getting away with it.

Your entire case is sort of weird. All of Westeros (Balon Greyjoy excluded, for a time) served Robert, those Targaryen loyalists included. They bend the knee, did homage to the king, etc. If Aegon wanted to put down men once working for Robert he cannot expect to find any allies in Westeros. He has to be even more generous than Stannis (who pardoned many of Renly's followers) in that regard. He cannot hope to win the Iron Throne against the majority of the Lords of Westeros.

Sentences like that make no sense:

4 hours ago, LionoftheWest said:

Also I don't doubt that the men would have wanted to avoid a civil war, but I can also see that many of them would like to see some kind of punishment meeted out to the rebels. What's the point of staying loyal if you are guaranteed a pardon with no consequences if you rebel?

 

Every lord remaining in Westeros bent the knee to Robert Baratheon. Thus they are all traitors, men like Selmy and Doran included. Those so-called 'Targaryen loyalists' jumping the bandwagon of the Golden Company-backed Aegon cannot hope to be treated better than a man like Jaime - if Jaime actually joins Aegon early on and makes him a gift and an offer he cannot refuse. Some levies delivered to Aegon's cause are well and good but the means to destroy House Lannister should be much sweeter.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Curiously, Arys tells us that Criston’s relationship with Rhaenyra began before he was named to the Kingsguard, but we see in the Dance of the Dragons  novellas that is not true. This inconsistency is probably the result of The George writing the actual history a bit differently than he originally intended, and can be explained away by the unreliable narrator.

I don't think we can talk about in terms 'more different than originally intended'. I doubt George had already a clear picture of the Dance in from 2000-2005 when he was writing the chapters which would make up AFfC.

But I'd agree that the Cole character sort of evolved (or rather devolved) over time. And in-universe we can easily enough explain in away by Arys Oakheart never actually reading a proper history book but rather (mis-)remembering stuff from one of his history lessons.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

In The Princess and the Queen, we see that Lord Commander Criston was the man who placed the crown on Aegon’s head at his coronation, but it could also be said that Criston was the one who acted, the muscle that made Aegon king, whether he ended up crowning himself or not.

 

AFfC and the whole Kingmaker name and the ominous reputation of the man made it appear as if Cole was a very crucial figure in the whole making of Aegon II and the outbreak of the Dance. Yet TRP, TPatQ, and TWoIaF make it clear that Otto and Alicent Hightower were the actual leaders of the Green party whereas Criston Cole was essentially nothing but their muscle and thug.

Later on he rose to more prominence but he wasn't very crucial during the making of Aegon II. Everybody could have murdered Beesbury or helped round up potential supporters of Rhaenyra. Not to mention that the literal kingmaking could also have been done by the septon.

In that sense it seems clear that Cole began as a more prominent figure in George's mind but when he actually told the story Otto and Alicent became much more important.

3 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

After leaving Harrenhal,  but before returning to rescue Brienne, Jaime has a dream. We know this dream is inspired by Bloodraven since Jaime rests his head on a weirwood stump. Tywin, Cersei, and Joffrey appear. This predates the Red Wedding so Tywin and Joffrey are still alive at this point, but Tywin and Joffrey will soon die, suffering deaths for which Jaime must later feel some blame, since he releases Tyrion, who kills Tywin, and he is Lord Commander of Joffrey's Kingsguard but unable to protect him. This reading suggests that Cersei will die too, and that Jaime must later feel some blame for her death. Of course, Jaime is the leading candidate to be Cersei's valonqar.

Then Bloodraven, who sided with the red dragon against the brother he loved, sends Rhaegar and Jaime's fallen Kingsguard brothers to hammer home Jaime's crime when he betrayed Aerys. Notwithstanding Jaime's defense that Aerys planned to burn King’s Landing, Rhaegar reminds Jaime that he left his wife and children under Jaime's protection. Bloodraven seems to be preparing Jaime to raise up Jon, Rhaegar's heir, as king. And recall this from Jaime’s search of the secret passages of the Red Keep...

That sounds very far-fetched, beginning with the idea that Brynden did not love Daeron II continuing to the idea that he actually wanted to set up Jaime for rediscovering his Targaryen loyalties. The dream is to get Jaime to rescue Brienne. Jaime's guilt about Rhaegar and his children is to hammer home the fact that Brienne is innocent, too. Not to mention that she is crucial for the future, especially Jaime's future if the content of the dream and the meaning of the burning swords are not just means to manipulate Jaime. 

The idea that this wasn't the crucial aspect is rather weird because Bloodraven couldn't care less about the King on the Iron Throne at that point.

[Lost Melnibonean]

49 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@LionoftheWest (I can't seem to remove this tag.)

I don't think we can talk about in terms 'more different than originally intended'. I doubt George had already a clear picture of the Dance in from 2000-2005 when he was writing the chapters which would make up AFfC.

But I'd agree that the Cole character sort of evolved (or rather devolved) over time. And in-universe we can easily enough explain in away by Arys Oakheart never actually reading a proper history book but rather (mis-)remembering stuff from one of his history lessons.

AFfC and the whole Kingmaker name and the ominous reputation of the man made it appear as if Cole was a very crucial figure in the whole making of Aegon II and the outbreak of the Dance. Yet TRP, TPatQ, and TWoIaF make it clear that Otto and Alicent Hightower were the actual leaders of the Green party whereas Criston Cole was essentially nothing but their muscle and thug.

Later on he rose to more prominence but he wasn't very crucial during the making of Aegon II. Everybody could have murdered Beesbury or helped round up potential supporters of Rhaenyra. Not to mention that the literal kingmaking could also have been done by the septon.

In that sense it seems clear that Cole began as a more prominent figure in George's mind but when he actually told the story Otto and Alicent became much more important.

That sounds very far-fetched, beginning with the idea that Brynden did not love Daeron II continuing to the idea that he actually wanted to set up Jaime for rediscovering his Targaryen loyalties. The dream is to get Jaime to rescue Brienne. Jaime's guilt about Rhaegar and his children is to hammer home the fact that Brienne is innocent, too. Not to mention that she is crucial for the future, especially Jaime's future if the content of the dream and the meaning of the burning swords are not just means to manipulate Jaime. 

The idea that this wasn't the crucial aspect is rather weird because Bloodraven couldn't care less about the King on the Iron Throne at that point.

So, you don't believe that Bloodraven wants Jon to be King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men? ASOIAF is a story not a history. The idea that Bloodraven loved Daemon, hated Aegor, and desired Shiera is more poetic than the idea that a one of the Great Bastards is excluded from that circle to be replaced by a Targaryen, so it makes more sense since we should be considering what the storyteller wants us to understand. The Bloodraven inspired dream goes beyond Jaime's feeling for Brienne. Else why would it be inspired by Bloodraven? 

I agree that the Hightowers were the movers and the shakers behind the green party, but Criston was the man who acted while other greens were debating (words are wind), and he made the purge happen. That put the greens ahead of the eight ball early in the Dance.