Robb had no choice

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

7 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Robb's main reason for invading the Westerlands was to destroy Stafford's army before it could be trained and deployed into the Riverlands . The overwhelming success of that action and the realization that he could stay pretty much unchallenged by the Westerland Lords in the West and disrupt Tywin's ability to receive any resources or reinforcements forced him to change his plans. The main plan was to stay in the West and wait for Tywin and Renly to fight it out but if Tywin choose to come West and deal with Robb then the second plan was to keep Tywin away from Kings Landing as long as possible and if an opportunity came to trick him into an ambush came then great if not just let him chase them around the West for a while and then escape back to the Riverlands . Renly getting killed and Edmure stopping Tywin from coming West and Stannis attacking Kings Landing without taking care of the Tyrells first all led to Robb's plans going to hell . 

Agreed. And that's why I hate it when people solely blame Edmure for ruining Robb's "perfect plan" and preventing Stannis from taking King's Landing.

[Adam Yozza]

18 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

We see Tywin extensively scouting ahead before the Battle of the Green Fork, so he would know where Robb's army is. The battle will take place in the Westerlands, so in Tywin's land, land he ought to know better than Robb. Therefore, he would have to be an utter lackwit to allow himself to be trapped.

I see your point here. But you do seem to be forgetting one thing. Robb wasn't already at the position where he would spring the trap. Robb was going to use the speed of his mounted force to run circles around Tywin, leading him to the chosen spot. As for the scouts, well we know that the Blackfish is great at killing those, unlike Roose were he failed (or perhaps didn't try to do this).

Also, Robb's men were out raiding the mines, herding livestock and stealing food. So that in itself will have an effect on Tywin; he's bound to be at least a little bit mad. That might make him a little more reckless, especially once he get's into the west and then learns that Stannis is hitting King's Landing. He's going to want to finish Robb of quickly, he won't be as patient as usual. That he's on his own land may well play into his hands, you're correct but it may also be detrimental. His confidence gets a little boost, maybe too much of one. I don't know, but I always thought that Robb's plan seemed to be based on Tywin's overconfidence.

And anyway, what was to stop Edmure marching those 11k Riverlords down and meeting up with Robb after Tywin had already passed the Red Fork and practically even the numbers. 

[Blackfish Tully]

33 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

Agreed. And that's why I hate it when people solely blame Edmure for ruining Robb's "perfect plan" and preventing Stannis from taking King's Landing.

You are right , there is plenty of blame to go around , Robb for not telling Edmure and marrying Jeyne , Edmure for not seeing the big picture , Stannis for attacking Kings Landing before he sorted out the Tyrell army , Balon for attacking the North instead of the West , Roose for betraying Robb and of course Renly for getting himself killed (just kidding)  

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

7 minutes ago, Adam Yozza said:

I see your point here. But you do seem to be forgetting one thing. Robb wasn't already at the position where he would spring the trap. Robb was going to use the speed of his mounted force to run circles around Tywin, leading him to the chosen spot. As for the scouts, well we know that the Blackfish is great at killing those, unlike Roose were he failed (or perhaps didn't try to do this).

Also, Robb's men were out raiding the mines, herding livestock and stealing food. So that in itself will have an effect on Tywin; he's bound to be at least a little bit mad. That might make him a little more reckless, especially once he get's into the west and then learns that Stannis is hitting King's Landing. He's going to want to finish Robb of quickly, he won't be as patient as usual. That he's on his own land may well play into his hands, you're correct but it may also be detrimental. His confidence gets a little boost, maybe too much of one. I don't know, but I always thought that Robb's plan seemed to be based on Tywin's overconfidence.

And anyway, what was to stop Edmure marching those 11k Riverlords down and meeting up with Robb after Tywin had already passed the Red Fork and practically even the numbers. 

How does Edmure know Tywin is going west to attack Robb and not besiege Riverrun? There is a very good reason why Edmure cannot allow that to happen: he has led too many people into Riverrun and the stores have already dwindled somewhat from the last siege. He couldn't have restocked because the Lannisters foraged and burned the Riverlands.

Robb's plan might work if Tywin indeed gets overconfident, but how would Robb know Tywin would be overconfident. Robb doesn't really know Tywin. Some of his advisors like the Blackfish might know him somewhat better, but weren't possibly close enough to accurately predict Tywin's reaction to all this. Therefore, basing your entire strategy on the overconfidence of Tywin seems at the very least really risky. He might have hoped to ambush Tywin, as Blackfish Tully said, but he couldn't have been basing his entire Westerland campaign on it.

[devilish]

52 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

I agreed with you that Tywin is no military genius, but he's not totally incompetent either. And I think you have to be totally incompetent to fall for a trap set in your land when you are expecting to fight a battle.

The fleet I explained. It was a sneak attack he couldn't have seen coming since he wasn't at war at the time; at least he didn't know he was. The Lannister Fleet burning was the first act of the Greyjoy Rebellion. It may have been wiser to guard you fleet better somehow, but it is definitely different from moving your army expecting battle.

Jaime I explained as well. Another possible reason for Tywin to give Jaime an army is that Tywin still saw Jaime as his heir and if Tywin was gone, Jaime should know what it is like to lead an army. Jaime beat Edmure at the Golden Tooth and at Riverrun, so he is a good commander. Tywin expected Robb to come down the Green Fork and face him, which was a mistake, but it was a reason for him to allow Jaime to handle the siege at Riverrun.

And how should Tywin have known Cersei couldn't handle Joffrey before Joffrey showed him with his bone-headed move that Cersei couldn't handle him? This may be the lack of skill at reading people you mention, but what does that have to do with Robb's trap? Tywin knows after the Battle of the Green Fork that he shouldn't underestimate Robb, so this lack of skill at reading people doesn't come in to play anymore. 

We see Tywin extensively scouting ahead before the Battle of the Green Fork, so he would know where Robb's army is. The battle will take place in the Westerlands, so in Tywin's land, land he ought to know better than Robb. Therefore, he would have to be an utter lackwit to allow himself to be trapped.

I don’t think that being caught into a trap in your own lands makes you an incompetent. It’s easy for a general to lower his guard when he’s in familiar territory and it is also easy to throw caution to the wind when his own lands and people are being threatened. In Cannae the Romans lost around 60-70k against Hannibal. Hannibal himself lost his decisive war in his own territory and Spartacus was able to outwit the Romans on multiple occasions despite being a foreigner leading an army of slaves and in enemy territory. Other people who were defeated in their own lands were the experienced General Marius (relative of Julius Caesar) whose reforms revolutionised the Roman army turning it into an invincible weapon of war and even Pompey the Great who had to flee quickly from Italy after Julius Caesar crossed into Italy with his army. We can safely assume that Tywin was nowhere near in terms of military brilliance to these people.

I originate from a country who was in close proximity to pirates which were far more dangerous than the Greyjoys (tbf we knew our way around piracy too). Under such circumstances, I assure you that leaving your entire fleet, in one place and unprotected is dumb. My country was nowhere as rich as the Westerlands. However throughout the years small towers were built around the shore, who were meant to warn the main city of an imminent attack hours before it happened. Forts were built that protected the harbour and a big chain was set to seal the harbour during the night. That made any surprise attack on the fleet residing there mathematically impossible. Surely Tywin could afford better security than that. 

I can sympathise with Tywin for giving some sort of responsibility to Jamie. However this was not the right time for such thing to happen at least unsupervised. Everything was still up in the air. The Tullys had powerful allies (Vale and Starks) who could have easily come to the rescue at any moment in time. The Northern trio was still courted by both Baratheon brothers. So if, let say, Robb, decided to send a raven to Renly, promising him support to his cause in exchange of him saving his Uncle’s arse and bring justice to his father’s death then Renly would have probably agreed to that. Jamie had already messed up big time with Eddard and his twin sister had disappointed the Lannisters by allowing Eddard’s execution. The Tullys needed to be dealt quickly and they had to be forced to bend the knee before their mates come. There was no time for a rookie to mess things up. 
I stick to my guns. Tywin is a brilliant administrator and he’s possibly the best negotiator in all Westeros history. However in terms of military tactics he’s far from perfect. I can see him being caught in an ambush, in his own lands. Better people to him were outsmarted that way

[Blackfish Tully]

5 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

How does Edmure know Tywin is going west to attack Robb and not besiege Riverrun? There is a very good reason why Edmure cannot allow that to happen: he has led too many people into Riverrun and the stores have already dwindled somewhat from the last siege. He couldn't have restocked because the Lannisters foraged and burned the Riverlands.

 

Attacking Riverrun makes little or no sense . Tywin has Stannis in the South and Robb in the West so why would he besiege Riverrun with only 20,000 men and put himself into a very vulnerable position in the Riverlands . To besiege Riverrun you have to split up your army into 3 parts and that would just be asking for the Riverlords and Northerers to destroy them one by one . Why would Tywin risk getting another army destroyed in front of Riverrun ? what would he gain by besieging it ? Edmure has no fear of that happening , when he and Cat are discussing Tywin moving West that scenario is not even brought up . 

[Blackfish Tully]

10 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

Robb's plan might work if Tywin indeed gets overconfident, but how would Robb know Tywin would be overconfident. Robb doesn't really know Tywin. Some of his advisors like the Blackfish might know him somewhat better, but weren't possibly close enough to accurately predict Tywin's reaction to all this. Therefore, basing your entire strategy on the overconfidence of Tywin seems at the very least really risky. He might have hoped to ambush Tywin, as Blackfish Tully said, but he couldn't have been basing his entire Westerland campaign on it.

If Tywin gets overconfident and Robb can crush him in an ambush great but even if that does not happen Robb has accomplished what he wanted . Getting Tywin away from Kings Landing and preventing him from attacking Stannis when he attacks the city is the main goal , destroying Tywin would be just a bonus. 

[devilish]

15 minutes ago, Ser Scott Malkinson said:

How does Edmure know Tywin is going west to attack Robb and not besiege Riverrun? There is a very good reason why Edmure cannot allow that to happen: he has led too many people into Riverrun and the stores have already dwindled somewhat from the last siege. He couldn't have restocked because the Lannisters foraged and burned the Riverlands.

Robb's plan might work if Tywin indeed gets overconfident, but how would Robb know Tywin would be overconfident. Robb doesn't really know Tywin. Some of his advisors like the Blackfish might know him somewhat better, but weren't possibly close enough to accurately predict Tywin's reaction to all this. Therefore, basing your entire strategy on the overconfidence of Tywin seems at the very least really risky. He might have hoped to ambush Tywin, as Blackfish Tully said, but he couldn't have been basing his entire Westerland campaign on it.

Robb's plan would have worked if Tywin allowed his rage to take over his better senses and went full gung-ho against the Northern boy who was raiding his mines etc. There's few things we know about the old man. One of them is that he loved his stash and would go full metal jacket against anyone trying to defy him on that. The Rains of Castamere song pretty much state that. The Lannisters always pay their debts and if Tywin has a say, everyone will do the same with them.

 

 

 

 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

I don't see it. Robb had the choice to bend the knee and negotiate his sisters’ return. On the other hand his bannermen, the innocent people of the Westerlands and the smallfolk were those who had no choice but to fight for Ned’s stupidity

[devilish]

Just now, Jon's Queen Consort said:

I don't see it. Robb had the choice to bend the knee and negotiate his sisters’ return. On the other hand his bannermen, the innocent people of the Westerlands and the smallfolk were those who had no choice but to fight for Ned’s stupidity

 

 

If he went to KL he would probably end up arrested or worse. 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

3 minutes ago, devilish said:

If he went to KL he would probably end up arrested or worse. 

We don't know that. There is no reason why we should believe that, Tywin knew better than that. If Robb hadn't gone to the South to fight but he would have gone there to bend the knee, swore fealty and negotiate I don't see how he would had been arrested.

[Blackfish Tully]

Just now, Jon's Queen Consort said:

We don't know that. There is no reason why we should believe that, Tywin knew better than that. If Robb hadn't gone to the South to fight but he would have gone there to bend the knee, swore fealty and negotiate I don't see how he would had been arrested.

 

Tywin had very little control over what was happening in Kings Landing or Ned Stark would not be dead . What are the chances that Joffrey does not kill Robb once he has him in his power? 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

1 minute ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Tywin had very little control over what was happening in Kings Landing or Ned Stark would not be dead . What are the chances that Joffrey does not kill Robb once he has him in his power? 

Tywin had no reason to be there while Robert was alive, Tywin the Regent would had been the one who would rule.

[devilish]

Just now, Jon's Queen Consort said:

We don't know that. There is no reason why we should believe that, Tywin knew better than that. If Robb hadn't gone to the South to fight but he would have gone there to bend the knee, swore fealty and negotiate I don't see how he would had been arrested.

 

Joffrey wouldn't have let that opportunity pass to keep Robb as 'guest' because that would ensure the North's absolute loyalty. I mean who can rise on Robb's defence at that point? Brandon is disabled, Rickon is far too young, Arya is presumably dead and Sansa is in KL. 

 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

3 minutes ago, devilish said:

Joffrey wouldn't have let that opportunity pass to keep Robb as 'guest' because that would ensure the North's absolute loyalty. I mean who can rise on Robb's defence at that point? Brandon is disabled, Rickon is far too young, Arya is presumably dead and Sansa is in KL. 

That has nothing to do with what I said.

[Blackfish Tully]

2 minutes ago, devilish said:

Joffrey wouldn't have let that opportunity pass to keep Robb as 'guest' because that would ensure the North's absolute loyalty. I mean who can rise on Robb's defence at that point? Brandon is disabled, Rickon is far too young, Arya is presumably dead and Sansa is in KL. 

 

Robb may as well have stayed as a guest . Joffrey murdered his father and Robb  goes to Kings Landing and bends the knee  to the man who murdered him and Tywin  who destroyed the Riverlands and  he would not be welcome back in the North nor the Riverlands . 

[devilish]

27 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

That has nothing to do with what I said.

It does. Joffrey had just removed Eddard Stark’s head and attacked the Riverlands for no reason at all. The crown had also lost Robb’s little sister who is presumably dead. What makes you think that the North could even be trusted by the crown without Robb/Edmure remaining as guest? So here’s the picture. Edmure and Robb bend the knee and are allowed to leave. Their army joins the royalist army and they go and meet Renly down South. In the thick of the action, Robb switch sides. The royalists are taken by surprise and the war ends up badly for the royalists. That’s pretty much how Henry Tudor Snr won his war that saw his lovely arse on the English throne.

Alternatively, Robb & Edmure are kept as ‘guests’. The Northern army would have no choice to obey else risk losing their respective Lords. There’s no real replacement for them either. Brandon is disabled and Brynden is ancient. Anyway, the North/Riverlands do the royalist bidding and Robb remains in KL. In due time Joffrey ‘awards’ the Stark’s loyalty by marrying Sansa while Tommen marries Margaery bringing the Tyrells back to the fold. He also changes the rules to Absolute Cognatic which puts Cat Stark ahead of Edmure and Sansa ahead of Rickon and Bran in terms of inheritance.  That would strain the relationship between Starks and Tully with Edmure having to go deeper into Joffrey’s pockets to keep his role.  Soon afterwards Robb who is still Joffrey’s guest ends up prematurely dead and Queen Sansa and her children suddenly become heirs not only for the North but the Riverlands. 
 

[devilish]

24 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Robb may as well have stayed as a guest . Joffrey murdered his father and Robb  goes to Kings Landing and bends the knee  to the man who murdered him and Tywin  who destroyed the Riverlands and  he would not be welcome back in the North nor the Riverlands . 

I agree. But lets assume that the Riverlands/North accept this deal. They have to follow their Lord Paramount 'blindly' after all

[aryagonnakill#2]

33 minutes ago, Blackfish Tully said:

Tywin had very little control over what was happening in Kings Landing or Ned Stark would not be dead . What are the chances that Joffrey does not kill Robb once he has him in his power? 

 

25 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

That has nothing to do with what I said.

 

28 minutes ago, devilish said:

Joffrey wouldn't have let that opportunity pass to keep Robb as 'guest' because that would ensure the North's absolute loyalty. I mean who can rise on Robb's defence at that point? Brandon is disabled, Rickon is far too young, Arya is presumably dead and Sansa is in KL. 

 

The specific quotes I have here are not relevant, I just wanted to add my 2 cents to the discussion. I personally believe Joffrey would not have let Robb leave if he even let him live, had he gone to KL, but Robb could have sent letters, not just to Joffrey but directly to Tywin.  

He certainly didn't have to go to war, however 1 could assume that had he not gone to war, his lords such as Umber and Bolton would have seen it as weakness, and would've rebelled/ pulled Castamere type bs to undermine him.

[devilish]

4 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

 

 

The specific quotes I have here are not relevant, I just wanted to add my 2 cents to the discussion. I personally believe Joffrey would not have let Robb leave if he even let him live, had he gone to KL, but Robb could have sent letters, not just to Joffrey but directly to Tywin.  

He certainly didn't have to go to war, however 1 could assume that had he not gone to war, his lords such as Umber and Bolton would have seen it as weakness, and would've rebelled/ pulled Castamere type bs to undermine him.

You mean the same Tywin who initiated an unprovoked attack on the Riverlands? The man who sent Gregor to handle the royal family which consisted of a wife who had been betrayed by her own husband and two innocent children? (None of whom had ever done anything against the Lannisters)