Robb had no choice

[devilish]

10 hours ago, FearlessBoggart said:

Would the Reach become part of the kingdom in the North?

I am talking more in terms of two Lord Paramount joining houses.

 

Prior to the war of the 5 kings the North could have provided Mace Tyrell with a 30k army just in case Tarly, the Florents or the Hightowers decide to act silly. It would have also supported the Tyrells in increasing their global standing (The Starks are related directly/indirectly to Arryns and Tullys, Eddard was hand of the king and his daughter was bound to marry the King's son and heir). That's something the Tyrells could exploit. Not to forget that the Northerners are fiercely honourable and dependable, so if lets say Margaery marries Robb or Sansa marries Willas, you know that guaranteed help is just 1 raven away. The Tyrells on the other hand could provide food (Winter can be tough up north), financial expertise and a possible military powerhouse if needed. Not to forget that the Starks are good people and Margaery is simply brilliant. A match between Robb and Margaery would be a serious upgrade on Cat-Eddard. Margaery is richer, more sophisticated, more brilliant and comes from a region which isn't the punching bag of Westeros

During the war of 5 kings it could have evolved in two Lord Paramount helping one another to achieve their dreams (ie ruling their part of world). Robb could get his kingdom in the North, maybe also releasing the Riverlands to Willas once the war is over. Willas on the other hand would have a solid partner + 30k army to go for the big prize himself. The Tyrell lead a 70k army and have never burnt bridges with anybody (apart from maybe Stannis). They should aim for more than just having a baby factory of their own sitting on the iron throne. The price would be losing the North which lets face it, was never really ruled by anyone apart from the Starks and is impossible/not worth to conquer. 

So here's my plan after the war of 5 kings

Robb marries Margaery
Willas marries Sansa (once she's rescued) or Arya
 

The Tyrells send their fleet to pick Danny while she's begging at Qarth. The deal is simple. Three houses will back her claim to the throne which means around 130k army. In exchange she must marry Loras and her children will be Tyrells. The Starks/Tully will be pardoned, the North will be granted independence and once the war is over Garlan will be given CR and be appointed Lord Paramount of the Westerlands. If Jorah sets this deal he will be pardoned and he will return in Westeros as Lord. Just throw the Lordship of Harrenhal at him if needs be.

The Tyrells/Starks joint army free the riverlands and capture Tywin, then they march South were they beat the Baratheon brothers whose forced to bend the knee. Stannis will be kicked out of dragonstone, Renly will resume his control on the Stormlands as long as he marries Arya and there's plenty of Lannisters heads on spikes. If Balon is stupid enough to still rebel, then the Tyrells can offer the North a ride there and have them all killed. Asha will be pardoned and offered to be offered the Lady of the iron islands as long as she marries Jon Snow, who will be freed from the Night's watch and legitimised to Stark. Mace and Robb would then decide if the North will get that or if it remains under Southern jurisdiction.

In few words

Kingdom of the North

King Robb and Lady Margaery

Contested Lands

Riverlands - Edmure - A Frey/Manderly/Tarly girl?
Iron Islands - Asha and Jon Stark

Westeros

Crownlands - Danny & Loras
Reach - Willas and Sansa
Stormlands - Renly and Arya
Vale - Sweet Robin - somebody
Westerlands - Garlan and wife
Dorne - Doran Martell
 

That does seem a fair deal isn't it?

[FearlessBoggart]

On 10/17/2016 at 2:37 AM, devilish said:

I am talking more in terms of two Lord Paramount joining houses.

 

Prior to the war of the 5 kings the North could have provided Mace Tyrell with a 30k army just in case Tarly, the Florents or the Hightowers decide to act silly. It would have also supported the Tyrells in increasing their global standing (The Starks are related directly/indirectly to Arryns and Tullys, Eddard was hand of the king and his daughter was bound to marry the King's son and heir). That's something the Tyrells could exploit. Not to forget that the Northerners are fiercely honourable and dependable, so if lets say Margaery marries Robb or Sansa marries Willas, you know that guaranteed help is just 1 raven away. The Tyrells on the other hand could provide food (Winter can be tough up north), financial expertise and a possible military powerhouse if needed. Not to forget that the Starks are good people and Margaery is simply brilliant. A match between Robb and Margaery would be a serious upgrade on Cat-Eddard. Margaery is richer, more sophisticated, more brilliant and comes from a region which isn't the punching bag of Westeros

During the war of 5 kings it could have evolved in two Lord Paramount helping one another to achieve their dreams (ie ruling their part of world). Robb could get his kingdom in the North, maybe also releasing the Riverlands to Willas once the war is over. Willas on the other hand would have a solid partner + 30k army to go for the big prize himself. The Tyrell lead a 70k army and have never burnt bridges with anybody (apart from maybe Stannis). They should aim for more than just having a baby factory of their own sitting on the iron throne. The price would be losing the North which lets face it, was never really ruled by anyone apart from the Starks and is impossible/not worth to conquer. 

So here's my plan after the war of 5 kings

Robb marries Margaery
Willas marries Sansa (once she's rescued) or Arya
 

The Tyrells send their fleet to pick Danny while she's begging at Qarth. The deal is simple. Three houses will back her claim to the throne which means around 130k army. In exchange she must marry Loras and her children will be Tyrells. The Starks/Tully will be pardoned, the North will be granted independence and once the war is over Garlan will be given CR and be appointed Lord Paramount of the Westerlands. If Jorah sets this deal he will be pardoned and he will return in Westeros as Lord. Just throw the Lordship of Harrenhal at him if needs be.

The Tyrells/Starks joint army free the riverlands and capture Tywin, then they march South were they beat the Baratheon brothers whose forced to bend the knee. Stannis will be kicked out of dragonstone, Renly will resume his control on the Stormlands as long as he marries Arya and there's plenty of Lannisters heads on spikes. If Balon is stupid enough to still rebel, then the Tyrells can offer the North a ride there and have them all killed. Asha will be pardoned and offered to be offered the Lady of the iron islands as long as she marries Jon Snow, who will be freed from the Night's watch and legitimised to Stark. Mace and Robb would then decide if the North will get that or if it remains under Southern jurisdiction.

In few words

Kingdom of the North

King Robb and Lady Margaery

Contested Lands

Riverlands - Edmure - A Frey/Manderly/Tarly girl?
Iron Islands - Asha and Jon Stark

Westeros

Crownlands - Danny & Loras
Reach - Willas and Sansa
Stormlands - Renly and Arya
Vale - Sweet Robin - somebody
Westerlands - Garlan and wife
Dorne - Doran Martell
 

That does seem a fair deal isn't it?

When does this match between Robb and Margaery happen?

[devilish]

8 hours ago, FearlessBoggart said:

When does this match between Robb and Margaery happen?

Around the time Eddard become hand. 

[sweetsunray]

Just having re-read aGoT and aCoK, I agree Robb had little choice in the matter. His own father helped to end the dinasty of the Targaryens, in retaliation of a despotic king who thought he could just order the execution of his LPs and their heirs without having a standing royal army and dragons to enforce his rule at a whim and without a trial. Such despotism only works if the despot has a permanent loyal standing army of his own and is entirely independent of his vassal lords. With that in mind it would be nuts he made a peace to become a faithful vassal to a king as whimsical as Joffrey. While Renly would have been the most strategic choice, for he has the biggest army, actually agreeing to be his vassal would set a precedent against feudal succession, and thereby legally agreeing that second or third sons could inherit over the first-born. Robb was not rebelling against Joffrey and his family because he believed him to be a bastard, but a Mad King II. In fact, Robb was willing to consider Tommen as King, except that it would still be the same grandfather Tywin who was killing and burning smallfolk and the same queen-mother Cersei and uncle Kingslayer. Meanwhile, Stannis would be the rightful man to look for, once Robb discounts the Lannister branch, but nobody even knew what the hell he'd been up to for a whole effing year. He leaves KL after Robert left for WF to sulk and brood and ignored any communication. If you don't even know what Stannis is up to for a whole year, what he intends to do, then it's folly to decide to become his ally. And what does Tywin the machiavelist do? Once he realizes that his grandson just lopped off the head of a favorable and reasonable peace-deal and exchange of hostages, he goes ruthless all the way, and does even worse in the Riverlands than he was already doing.

All the possible allies basically lost their marbles: Stannis sulked and brooded and did nothing for close to 2 years expecting people to just follow him because it was "just", Renly was doing his "look at me! in my flashy colors"-thing, Lysa betrayed all of her family to get the man she wanted in her bed and didn't give a hoots how many lives it cost and then nutty Balon decides to reave and reap the lands with the least gain, and his foster brother decides to take a castle he cannot possibly hold and make it appear as if he killed the other brothers to save face.

It wasn't even that Robb was King in the North that was the big issue. But the lords of the Riverlands also made him king of the Rivers. They seceded with the North. He did offer peace-terms, that none of the Lannisters wanted to even consider remotely. All they ever actually agreed to was returning his dead father's bones.

In many ways Tywin, Cersei and Tyrion were as nuts as Balon to not even try to come to some peace-terms (one that was painful to both Starks and Lannisters). The whole Reach and a lot of Stormlords were with Renly. And there was no way that they could be sure that Lysa would not stir at some point. And while Robb's biggest mistake was marrying Jeyne Westerling, Walder Frey and Roose would still have betrayed Robb once Stannis lost at the Blackwater and Tywin was gifted the Reach as an ally in his lap. Heck Roose was weakening Robb from the start at the Green Fork and by letting Ramsay loose in the North. The Red Wedding wouldn't just have happened during Edmure-Roslyn wedding, but Robb-Roslyn wedding.

As for marriage alliances before the Wo5K - Robb was not yet off age, while his mother was traveling to and fro all over the Riverlands and Vale and his father was trying his hand at Westeros' Hercule Poirot. Robb had no power at the time to make a marriage deal with a Tyrell. He receives the order of his mother to start gathering bannermen from the Vale, and otherwise hears wild stories and Tywin burning the Riverlands, until he gets his sister's letter after Ned's arrest.

[Greywater-Watch]

Robb had a choice, but he was not experienced and/or clever enough to make the best ones:

- he did not redefine his (military) targets after Ned's death

- he broke the marriage contract with his most important ally (The Freys)

- he had good recgonition within the riverlands but close to none from the south & the Iron Ilands and made no effort to improve that

- he had sufficient information on hand to doubt that Arya was in the hand of the Lannisters and could/should have insisted that Cleos Frey made sure during his diplomatic mission at KL that Sansa AND Arya were there in person

- he informed Edmure Tully poorly about his battle plan (which led to the unintended Battle of the Fords)

- he removed Grey Wind from his side when he needed him dearly (the wolf showed resentments aginst all his future betrayers, i.e. Westerlings, Freys)

- he had a poor estimation of loyalty/interests of important people around himself (Theon, Roose Bolton)

- giving Harrenhal to Roose Bolton and the Freys after Lord Tywin gave up the castle was a crucial mistake in my opinion

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Robb had a choice, but he was not experienced and/or clever enough to make the best ones:

- he did not redefine his (military) targets after Ned's death

- he broke the marriage contract with his most important ally (The Freys)

- he had good recgonition within the riverlands but close to none from the south & the Iron Ilands and made no effort to improve that

- he had sufficient information on hand to doubt that Arya was in the hand of the Lannisters and could/should have insisted that Cleos Frey made sure during his diplomatic mission at KL that Sansa AND Arya were there in person

- he informed Edmure Tully poorly about his battle plan (which led to the unintended Battle of the Fords)

- he removed Grey Wind from his side when he needed him dearly (the wolf showed resentments aginst all his future betrayers, i.e. Westerlings, Freys)

- he had a poor estimation of loyalty/interests of important people around himself (Theon, Roose Bolton)

- giving Harrenhal to Roose Bolton and the Freys after Lord Tywin gave up the castle was a crucial mistake in my opinion

I would say he did redefine them: he declared independence. His peace offer (and I'm not saying the Lannisters ought to have accepted it as initially stated) very clearly was about - we won't recognize rule from the Iron Throne anymore. Whereas before it was merely defending his uncle and getting his father back.

Yes he broke the marriage contract. But the Freys were going to betray him once Tyrells joined Tywin anyhow, since Robb was not yet married anyhow. In fact, Walder Frey himself stipulated that the marriage would happen AFTER the war was done. From the very beginning, Walder Frey incorporated a "mayhaps" situation where he could turn his coat whenever he felt necessary. Robb just gave him the excuse to cry "foul".

Actually he did make an effort to improve recognition with the south and the Iron Islands. Joffrey wanted to organize an army out of the gold cloaks to fight Renly. Stannis did gather his army (whatever he had) to engage Renly. There is only one man who initiated negotiations with well everyone: a peace offer to the Lannisters, an envoy to the Iron Islands, letters to Lysa, and an envoy to the South. Tywin? He negotiated with nobody! Renly? With nobody. Stannis only had a parlay with Renly. 

Agreed on informing Edmure. But without the Tyrell alliance, Tywin would probably not have been able to pull it off.

The issue is not so much that he kept Grey Wind away, but that he disregarded the signs of distrust by the direwolf. And then again, Grey Wind did not show any hackles against Roose Bolton who is actually the truest betrayer from the start, since he sent Glover and Tallhart to die in Duskendale even before the Blackwater and Robb's marriage. Even if he had heeded his direwolf (and he was cautious about the Freys), he still needed to cross and the men.

Agreed: Theon completely fucked him over and so did Roose. And I would say that even without Theon, Roose had intentions to use Ramsay to cause mayhem, bleed the North and get rid of heirs, and would have succeeded in that eventually. After all, Ramsay was inside WF as Reek before Theon even got there.

Overall, I think his biggest mistake was to trust in Roose Bolton way too much... And Catelyn made the same mistake. She made her son weary of overly loyal, eager men such as the Greatjon, while pointing out Roose's cunning to Robb as being advantageous for him. 

[Greywater-Watch]

5 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Actually he did make an effort to improve recognition with the south and the Iron Islands. Joffrey wanted to organize an army out of the gold cloaks to fight Renly. Stannis did gather his army (whatever he had) to engage Renly. There is only one man who initiated negotiations with well everyone: a peace offer to the Lannisters, an envoy to the Iron Islands, letters to Lysa, and an envoy to the South. Tywin? He negotiated with nobody! Renly? With nobody. Stannis only had a parlay with Renly. 

I admit that you have good arguments. As to the "recognition" - I am sorry for my bad wording. I meant military intelligence, spying, putting informants in Kings Landing etc.

[devilish]

I wouldn’t blame Roose for what he did. Robb had lost the North, he was losing his bannermen and he had lost Jamie. His army was trapped in the Riverlands and soon enough the Tyrell-Lannister horde would wipe them away
Many mistakes were made prior to the rebellion and which Robb had no power on

a-    The North not having a fleet. That kept the region poor and totally reliant on the Riverlands lords for trade and military access.
b-    Hoster’s inability to keep Walder in check. When faced with a snake you either appease it or you kill it. There’s no other way.  The Riverlands were always vulnerable to invasion, that’s why they married their daughters to anybody at the head of an army. The last thing their allies needed was to beg/make deals with the Riverlands Lords to be able to protect them. Robb’s promised marriage to a Frey girl, ruined any prospective alliance.
c-     Eddard Stark and Cat Tully games. Cat should have never kidnapped Tyrion without tangible proof of him trying to kill Bran and Eddard should have been more careful in how to deal with the Lannisters. The wolf may have been king in his den but down South he’s nothing but one of Robert’s groupies. 

That doesn’t mean Robb doesn’t have his share of mistakes

a-    Allowing Theon to leave was stupid. Theon was the sole reason why Balon hasn’t invaded the North just yet. Once he had his son back, there was nothing stopping the Greyjoys from striking against the wounded wolf.
b-    Negotiating with the Freys. Robb had obligations towards his grandfather and uncle but that doesn’t mean he had to bend over backwards to save them. If Walder refused access then Robb should have simply turned his army around and pass from another way. If that isn’t possible then just siege the damn place and send ravens to the Riverland Lords to help break the deadlock by attacking the other side. Riverrun should be able to withstand a siege and the Lord Paramount of the North shouldn’t be involved into their bickering. 
c-    He should have chosen an experienced and battle hardened Lord Protector of the North whose task would be to defend the North and make sure that the region is ready for a possible invasion.  Most of the Southern regions were hostile to him and they had fleets. The last thing Robb needed was somebody capturing Moat Cailin from the ‘Northern’ side and locking him out of his own lands.
d-    Robb should have understood his limits. Irrespective who wins, the king would want all Westeros back to the fold. A Northern invasion would have cost the crown dearly in terms of men and resources. However Robb would have been an underdog in that war.  Instead of putting a crown on his head he should have negotiated a deal with Renly. Robb could have asked Renly to rescue Riverrun and break the deadlock at the Twins in exchange of him bending the knee. Ambassadors should also be sent to Mace proposing a possible marriage between Willas and Sansa/Arya once they had been rescued. I would also keep negotiations between the Lannisters and the Starks open. Sure, Eddard’s death was unforgivable, but it was Joffrey’s doing and not Tywin’s. Following the alliance between Tywin and Mace, then Robb should have pushed to possible peace negotiations with the crown. Robb would have no qualms bending the knee and even marry Myrcella as a sign of loyalty to the crown if let’s say Joffrey is declared unfit to rule and Sansa end sup marrying Willas instead. That would be a good deal for Tywin as it would bring the North back to the fold, it wouldn’t hinder the alliance between Tyrells and Lannisters (Margaery could marry King Tommen instead), it would consolidate an alliance between the North and the crown and it would crush Ned’s rumours of a possible incest between Cersei and  Jamie. Not to forget that it would be a perfect excuse to get rid of another mad king who would send everything tits up. 
 

[sweetsunray]

9 hours ago, devilish said:

I wouldn’t blame Roose for what he did.

Roose began to betray Robb before the first battle, devilish. Of course I'm gonna blame Roose for his own scheming.

• We have a raven arriving at WF that's beeen hawked at the end of aGoT.
• Roose makes sure that Hornwood is in the van to get killed at the Battle of the Green Fork, as he puts any man actually truly loyal to Robb in the van. And while I don't blame Roose for losing the battle, he pretty much made sure he'd lose, and who he could get conveniently out of the way.
• Roose put his bastard, who he suspects killed his Domeric not a year ago, in charge of 600 men... a man who's never even been much trained at master-at-arms (less than a year). He basically makes Ramsay his castellan. Roose knew very well what sort of man he left in charge, if he did not hinted or instructed him to cause trouble. Why do you think Wyman Manderly kept so many men in White Harbor? 
• Roose does not harry Tywin's rear when Tywin retreats. He stays at the Twins to get married to a daughter of a Darry wife of Merret. Young Lord Darry, recaptures Darry, but is sacked 14 days later by Gregor with 300 men. Roose had ample time to move more south with the Freys and his thousands of men to hold the Ruby Ford and Darry before Gregor could even attempt to sack Darry. But he didn't when it was necessary for Robb and the Riverlands... why? Because he wanted the male Darry line to get killed. Heck, somehow Gregor and 300 men can do damage almost as far as the Twins, while Roose has over 4000 men at hsi disposal and Darry had been recaptured. Knowing that Tywin was marching for HH, you would think that Roose would try to occupy and defend the land regained no? He does that, AFTER he allows Gregor to go as far as the Twins first. 
• He sends Glover, Tallhart and Harrion Karstark to Duskendale immediately after capturing Harrenhal, and was a complete dumb move (dumb for Robb, great for Roose), a suicide mission to drain the RL and Robb's army of men. This is done before any letter arrived of Robb's marriage, before the news of Tywin's win at the Blackwater and having Tyrells as allies, before the news of the death of Bran and Rickon.
• Now truly: Ramsay and his 600 men made sure the North was lost. Had Ramsay and those 600 men not routed Cassel and his gathered Cerwyn-WF army then Theon would have been captured, WF would have been back in Robb's hands, and Bran and Rickon could have emerged from the crypts and remain. Do you truly believe that the captains and sub-commanders who've been part of Roose's household for years and years would have attacked Northerners of household Stark just on some bastard who's been there only 1.5 year without being sure that's what Roose would want? 

Roose is more than an opportunist. He set out to sabotage the Starks from the very beginning. And of course you can blame Roose for that.

[sweetsunray]

10 hours ago, devilish said:

a-    Allowing Theon to leave was stupid. Theon was the sole reason why Balon hasn’t invaded the North just yet. Once he had his son back, there was nothing stopping the Greyjoys from striking against the wounded wolf.
b-    Negotiating with the Freys. Robb had obligations towards his grandfather and uncle but that doesn’t mean he had to bend over backwards to save them. If Walder refused access then Robb should have simply turned his army around and pass from another way. If that isn’t possible then just siege the damn place and send ravens to the Riverland Lords to help break the deadlock by attacking the other side. Riverrun should be able to withstand a siege and the Lord Paramount of the North shouldn’t be involved into their bickering. 
c-    He should have chosen an experienced and battle hardened Lord Protector of the North whose task would be to defend the North and make sure that the region is ready for a possible invasion.  Most of the Southern regions were hostile to him and they had fleets. The last thing Robb needed was somebody capturing Moat Cailin from the ‘Northern’ side and locking him out of his own lands.
d-    Robb should have understood his limits. Irrespective who wins, the king would want all Westeros back to the fold. A Northern invasion would have cost the crown dearly in terms of men and resources. However Robb would have been an underdog in that war.  Instead of putting a crown on his head he should have negotiated a deal with Renly. Robb could have asked Renly to rescue Riverrun and break the deadlock at the Twins in exchange of him bending the knee.

a- yes it was stupid, but in the end if were the Boltons who sacked WF, routed a Northern army and who gave Theon the idea to make it look as if he had killed Robb's male heirs. But also, Balon was already planning an invasion of the North, with or without Theon since ships were already being gathered at Pyke upon Theon's arrival.

b - there was no time for a siege on the Twins, as Tywin was advancing along the kingsroad, and many Riverlords were actually incapable of doing anything as they were being besieged in RR (Blackwood). Solely Mallister was available. Robb wasn't LP yet, since his father was alive in a dungeon, and the last instructions he had from Catelyn (from the Vale) was to gather bannermen, defend Moat Cailin, along with Cat passing on the message that an army was being amassed at Lannisport. And it wasn't Robb who lost the Lannister hostage Tyrion. The only way to try and get some leverage to bring the Lannisters to negotiate was to go South and prevent their military power from expanding, and counter what Tywin was doing in the Riverlands.

c - agreed, as long as that man wasn't Roose

d - was that not what Cat's envoy was for? Make some deal with Renly? And Renly didn't even hold Robb's crown against Robb. However, it was not yet known at all that Renly had crowned himself king or had an alliance with the Tyrells at the time that Robb was at Moat Cailin, let alone when he marched through the Neck. There is no rookery at Moat Cailin and nobody can send ravens to someone in the field. Robb was info-blind at Moat Cailin, except for local outriders. Renly crowned himself around the moment that Robb emerged from the Neck and had to cross to keep himself locked in and it would take any messenger from the North about a fortnight to give him any news received by message from the North. Renly was at Highgarden at the time. Twyin only a few days away from him. Really, your "should" is entirely impossible, as Robb is neither LP nor King, has no idea where Renly is, nor does he know the younger Baratheon brother crowned himself, and even if he could have known that (if he had a glass candle say), it would take longer for a bird to reach Renly than it would take Tywin to battle Robb at the Twins, let alone for Renly or Tyrells to teleport an army north of King's Landing.

As a whole it seems you're arguing that Robb should have refrained from allying himself with his neighbors and family, in the hope to make an ally of someone who's a total wildcard at the time. That's like the US shrugging at an invasion of Mexico and asking Argentina to stop the invasion.